Severe Storms

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1124 AM CDT Fri Aug 30 2024 Valid 301630Z - 311200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER PORTIONS OF EASTERN LOWER MICHIGAN... ...SUMMARY... Scattered strong to severe thunderstorms are possible across eastern Lower Michigan this afternoon, with damaging winds the main threat. Isolated strong to severe thunderstorms may occur into parts of the Midwest, and also across portions of the Carolinas and Virginia into northeast Georgia. ...Great Lakes to the Mid Mississippi Valley... Moderate instability is expected to develop ahead of a cold front that should extend from eastern Lower MI southwest into OK this afternoon, with MLCAPE on the order of 2000 J/kg. Modestly enhanced westerly mid-level flow across Lower MI will contribute to 25-35 kts of deep-layer shear, and this should prove sufficient for organized multicell storms. Scattered thunderstorm development is expected this afternoon as weak height falls/ascent overspreads the Slight Risk area, and where somewhat greater storm coverage is expected. Substantial boundary layer heating will result in steep low-level lapse rates, and the strongest storms/clusters will be capable of damaging gusts and isolated severe hail. Farther southwest, mid-level flow will be weaker than across the Great Lakes, but higher MLCAPE and negligible CINH will be present. Scattered thunderstorms should develop along the front after 18-19z, tending to cluster with time, and pose a risk for strong/damaging gusts and perhaps hail. ...Southern Appalachians to the Southern Mid-Atlantic... Diurnal heating of a very moist air mass (mid/upper 70s surface dew points and PW generally above 1.75 inches) will result in strong instability, with pockets of MLCAPE in excess of 3000 J/kg and effectively no CINH. Despite very weak mid-level flow of 10-15 kts, scattered thunderstorms developing near a weak front, and over higher terrain, will pose a risk for a few wet microbursts/strong wind gusts through this afternoon. ..Bunting/Squitieri.. 08/30/2024 Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1124 AM CDT Fri Aug 30 2024 Valid 301630Z - 311200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER PORTIONS OF EASTERN LOWER MICHIGAN... ...SUMMARY... Scattered strong to severe thunderstorms are possible across eastern Lower Michigan this afternoon, with damaging winds the main threat. Isolated strong to severe thunderstorms may occur into parts of the Midwest, and also across portions of the Carolinas and Virginia into northeast Georgia. ...Great Lakes to the Mid Mississippi Valley... Moderate instability is expected to develop ahead of a cold front that should extend from eastern Lower MI southwest into OK this afternoon, with MLCAPE on the order of 2000 J/kg. Modestly enhanced westerly mid-level flow across Lower MI will contribute to 25-35 kts of deep-layer shear, and this should prove sufficient for organized multicell storms. Scattered thunderstorm development is expected this afternoon as weak height falls/ascent overspreads the Slight Risk area, and where somewhat greater storm coverage is expected. Substantial boundary layer heating will result in steep low-level lapse rates, and the strongest storms/clusters will be capable of damaging gusts and isolated severe hail. Farther southwest, mid-level flow will be weaker than across the Great Lakes, but higher MLCAPE and negligible CINH will be present. Scattered thunderstorms should develop along the front after 18-19z, tending to cluster with time, and pose a risk for strong/damaging gusts and perhaps hail. ...Southern Appalachians to the Southern Mid-Atlantic... Diurnal heating of a very moist air mass (mid/upper 70s surface dew points and PW generally above 1.75 inches) will result in strong instability, with pockets of MLCAPE in excess of 3000 J/kg and effectively no CINH. Despite very weak mid-level flow of 10-15 kts, scattered thunderstorms developing near a weak front, and over higher terrain, will pose a risk for a few wet microbursts/strong wind gusts through this afternoon. ..Bunting/Squitieri.. 08/30/2024 Read more

SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0732 AM CDT Fri Aug 30 2024 Valid 301300Z - 311200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF EASTERN LOWER MICHIGAN... ...SUMMARY... Scattered strong to severe thunderstorms are possible across eastern Lower Michigan this afternoon, with damaging winds the main threat. Isolated strong to severe thunderstorms may occur into parts of the Midwest, and also across portions of the Carolinas and Virginia into northeast Georgia. ...Great Lakes to the Mid Mississippi Valley... Weak/elevated thunderstorms ongoing this morning from parts of northern IL into Lower MI should continue to gradually weaken. In their wake, moderate instability should develop along and ahead of a cold front that will extend from the Upper Great Lakes region southwestward to the southern Plains by this afternoon. This front should make continued slow east-southeastward progress across these regions through the period as an upper trough moves eastward over Ontario, the Great Lakes, and Midwest. Stronger mid-level winds associated with this feature will generally remain confined to Canada. But, modest enhancement to the west-southwesterly low/mid-level flow should be present over parts of Lower MI this afternoon. Even though low-level convergence along the front should remain fairly weak, expectations are for at least scattered thunderstorms to develop along much of its length from eastern Lower MI to the mid MS Valley and southern Plains. The combination of moderate instability with modest deep-layer shear should promote some convective organization, with loosely organized multicells/clusters likely becoming the dominant thunderstorm mode. Steepened low-level lapse rates with daytime hearing should encourage occasional strong to damaging winds, with slightly stronger low/mid-level flow perhaps supporting a relatively greater threat ahead of the front in eastern Lower MI. Isolated hail may also occur with the strongest cores. Convection should weaken with time this evening with the loss of daytime heating. ...Southern Appalachians to the Southern Mid-Atlantic... Upper ridging will persist over the Southeast today. Very weak low/mid-level flow is expected to limit overall thunderstorm organization. Still, moderate instability should be present this afternoon as daytime heating occurs along and south of a stalled front over southern VA and northern NC. Even though deep-layer shear will remain negligible, pulse-type thunderstorms that develop in this moderately unstable and high precipitable water environment could produce isolated strong to damaging downburst winds this afternoon. ..Gleason/Leitman.. 08/30/2024 Read more

SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0732 AM CDT Fri Aug 30 2024 Valid 301300Z - 311200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF EASTERN LOWER MICHIGAN... ...SUMMARY... Scattered strong to severe thunderstorms are possible across eastern Lower Michigan this afternoon, with damaging winds the main threat. Isolated strong to severe thunderstorms may occur into parts of the Midwest, and also across portions of the Carolinas and Virginia into northeast Georgia. ...Great Lakes to the Mid Mississippi Valley... Weak/elevated thunderstorms ongoing this morning from parts of northern IL into Lower MI should continue to gradually weaken. In their wake, moderate instability should develop along and ahead of a cold front that will extend from the Upper Great Lakes region southwestward to the southern Plains by this afternoon. This front should make continued slow east-southeastward progress across these regions through the period as an upper trough moves eastward over Ontario, the Great Lakes, and Midwest. Stronger mid-level winds associated with this feature will generally remain confined to Canada. But, modest enhancement to the west-southwesterly low/mid-level flow should be present over parts of Lower MI this afternoon. Even though low-level convergence along the front should remain fairly weak, expectations are for at least scattered thunderstorms to develop along much of its length from eastern Lower MI to the mid MS Valley and southern Plains. The combination of moderate instability with modest deep-layer shear should promote some convective organization, with loosely organized multicells/clusters likely becoming the dominant thunderstorm mode. Steepened low-level lapse rates with daytime hearing should encourage occasional strong to damaging winds, with slightly stronger low/mid-level flow perhaps supporting a relatively greater threat ahead of the front in eastern Lower MI. Isolated hail may also occur with the strongest cores. Convection should weaken with time this evening with the loss of daytime heating. ...Southern Appalachians to the Southern Mid-Atlantic... Upper ridging will persist over the Southeast today. Very weak low/mid-level flow is expected to limit overall thunderstorm organization. Still, moderate instability should be present this afternoon as daytime heating occurs along and south of a stalled front over southern VA and northern NC. Even though deep-layer shear will remain negligible, pulse-type thunderstorms that develop in this moderately unstable and high precipitable water environment could produce isolated strong to damaging downburst winds this afternoon. ..Gleason/Leitman.. 08/30/2024 Read more

SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0732 AM CDT Fri Aug 30 2024 Valid 301300Z - 311200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF EASTERN LOWER MICHIGAN... ...SUMMARY... Scattered strong to severe thunderstorms are possible across eastern Lower Michigan this afternoon, with damaging winds the main threat. Isolated strong to severe thunderstorms may occur into parts of the Midwest, and also across portions of the Carolinas and Virginia into northeast Georgia. ...Great Lakes to the Mid Mississippi Valley... Weak/elevated thunderstorms ongoing this morning from parts of northern IL into Lower MI should continue to gradually weaken. In their wake, moderate instability should develop along and ahead of a cold front that will extend from the Upper Great Lakes region southwestward to the southern Plains by this afternoon. This front should make continued slow east-southeastward progress across these regions through the period as an upper trough moves eastward over Ontario, the Great Lakes, and Midwest. Stronger mid-level winds associated with this feature will generally remain confined to Canada. But, modest enhancement to the west-southwesterly low/mid-level flow should be present over parts of Lower MI this afternoon. Even though low-level convergence along the front should remain fairly weak, expectations are for at least scattered thunderstorms to develop along much of its length from eastern Lower MI to the mid MS Valley and southern Plains. The combination of moderate instability with modest deep-layer shear should promote some convective organization, with loosely organized multicells/clusters likely becoming the dominant thunderstorm mode. Steepened low-level lapse rates with daytime hearing should encourage occasional strong to damaging winds, with slightly stronger low/mid-level flow perhaps supporting a relatively greater threat ahead of the front in eastern Lower MI. Isolated hail may also occur with the strongest cores. Convection should weaken with time this evening with the loss of daytime heating. ...Southern Appalachians to the Southern Mid-Atlantic... Upper ridging will persist over the Southeast today. Very weak low/mid-level flow is expected to limit overall thunderstorm organization. Still, moderate instability should be present this afternoon as daytime heating occurs along and south of a stalled front over southern VA and northern NC. Even though deep-layer shear will remain negligible, pulse-type thunderstorms that develop in this moderately unstable and high precipitable water environment could produce isolated strong to damaging downburst winds this afternoon. ..Gleason/Leitman.. 08/30/2024 Read more

SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0732 AM CDT Fri Aug 30 2024 Valid 301300Z - 311200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF EASTERN LOWER MICHIGAN... ...SUMMARY... Scattered strong to severe thunderstorms are possible across eastern Lower Michigan this afternoon, with damaging winds the main threat. Isolated strong to severe thunderstorms may occur into parts of the Midwest, and also across portions of the Carolinas and Virginia into northeast Georgia. ...Great Lakes to the Mid Mississippi Valley... Weak/elevated thunderstorms ongoing this morning from parts of northern IL into Lower MI should continue to gradually weaken. In their wake, moderate instability should develop along and ahead of a cold front that will extend from the Upper Great Lakes region southwestward to the southern Plains by this afternoon. This front should make continued slow east-southeastward progress across these regions through the period as an upper trough moves eastward over Ontario, the Great Lakes, and Midwest. Stronger mid-level winds associated with this feature will generally remain confined to Canada. But, modest enhancement to the west-southwesterly low/mid-level flow should be present over parts of Lower MI this afternoon. Even though low-level convergence along the front should remain fairly weak, expectations are for at least scattered thunderstorms to develop along much of its length from eastern Lower MI to the mid MS Valley and southern Plains. The combination of moderate instability with modest deep-layer shear should promote some convective organization, with loosely organized multicells/clusters likely becoming the dominant thunderstorm mode. Steepened low-level lapse rates with daytime hearing should encourage occasional strong to damaging winds, with slightly stronger low/mid-level flow perhaps supporting a relatively greater threat ahead of the front in eastern Lower MI. Isolated hail may also occur with the strongest cores. Convection should weaken with time this evening with the loss of daytime heating. ...Southern Appalachians to the Southern Mid-Atlantic... Upper ridging will persist over the Southeast today. Very weak low/mid-level flow is expected to limit overall thunderstorm organization. Still, moderate instability should be present this afternoon as daytime heating occurs along and south of a stalled front over southern VA and northern NC. Even though deep-layer shear will remain negligible, pulse-type thunderstorms that develop in this moderately unstable and high precipitable water environment could produce isolated strong to damaging downburst winds this afternoon. ..Gleason/Leitman.. 08/30/2024 Read more

SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0732 AM CDT Fri Aug 30 2024 Valid 301300Z - 311200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF EASTERN LOWER MICHIGAN... ...SUMMARY... Scattered strong to severe thunderstorms are possible across eastern Lower Michigan this afternoon, with damaging winds the main threat. Isolated strong to severe thunderstorms may occur into parts of the Midwest, and also across portions of the Carolinas and Virginia into northeast Georgia. ...Great Lakes to the Mid Mississippi Valley... Weak/elevated thunderstorms ongoing this morning from parts of northern IL into Lower MI should continue to gradually weaken. In their wake, moderate instability should develop along and ahead of a cold front that will extend from the Upper Great Lakes region southwestward to the southern Plains by this afternoon. This front should make continued slow east-southeastward progress across these regions through the period as an upper trough moves eastward over Ontario, the Great Lakes, and Midwest. Stronger mid-level winds associated with this feature will generally remain confined to Canada. But, modest enhancement to the west-southwesterly low/mid-level flow should be present over parts of Lower MI this afternoon. Even though low-level convergence along the front should remain fairly weak, expectations are for at least scattered thunderstorms to develop along much of its length from eastern Lower MI to the mid MS Valley and southern Plains. The combination of moderate instability with modest deep-layer shear should promote some convective organization, with loosely organized multicells/clusters likely becoming the dominant thunderstorm mode. Steepened low-level lapse rates with daytime hearing should encourage occasional strong to damaging winds, with slightly stronger low/mid-level flow perhaps supporting a relatively greater threat ahead of the front in eastern Lower MI. Isolated hail may also occur with the strongest cores. Convection should weaken with time this evening with the loss of daytime heating. ...Southern Appalachians to the Southern Mid-Atlantic... Upper ridging will persist over the Southeast today. Very weak low/mid-level flow is expected to limit overall thunderstorm organization. Still, moderate instability should be present this afternoon as daytime heating occurs along and south of a stalled front over southern VA and northern NC. Even though deep-layer shear will remain negligible, pulse-type thunderstorms that develop in this moderately unstable and high precipitable water environment could produce isolated strong to damaging downburst winds this afternoon. ..Gleason/Leitman.. 08/30/2024 Read more

Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0335 AM CDT Fri Aug 30 2024 Valid 021200Z - 071200Z ...DISCUSSION... Global models appear to be in reasonable agreement through the medium range, with a long-wave upper trough crossing the eastern U.S. Day 4/Monday, and then shifting into the Canadian Maritimes and western Atlantic Day 5/Tuesday. Weak/low-amplitude flow aloft will prevail across the U.S. Day 5 and into Day 6/Wednesday, before the pattern begins to amplify again through Days 7-8 (Thursday and Friday, Sept. 5-6). This amplification anticipated late in the period will result in an eastern trough/western ridge configuration, with a cold front to progress across the eastern half of the country through the second half of the period. However, with the prior (Day 3) frontal advance across the southern U.S., and persistence of Canadian surface high pressure in its wake, rich/Gulf moisture is expected to remain confined to southern portions of the country. This should limit severe potential with the late-period system as it crosses the CONUS. As such, no severe-weather risk areas are being included in the forecast, as overall potential appears likely at this time to remain low through the end of the upcoming week. Read more

Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0335 AM CDT Fri Aug 30 2024 Valid 021200Z - 071200Z ...DISCUSSION... Global models appear to be in reasonable agreement through the medium range, with a long-wave upper trough crossing the eastern U.S. Day 4/Monday, and then shifting into the Canadian Maritimes and western Atlantic Day 5/Tuesday. Weak/low-amplitude flow aloft will prevail across the U.S. Day 5 and into Day 6/Wednesday, before the pattern begins to amplify again through Days 7-8 (Thursday and Friday, Sept. 5-6). This amplification anticipated late in the period will result in an eastern trough/western ridge configuration, with a cold front to progress across the eastern half of the country through the second half of the period. However, with the prior (Day 3) frontal advance across the southern U.S., and persistence of Canadian surface high pressure in its wake, rich/Gulf moisture is expected to remain confined to southern portions of the country. This should limit severe potential with the late-period system as it crosses the CONUS. As such, no severe-weather risk areas are being included in the forecast, as overall potential appears likely at this time to remain low through the end of the upcoming week. Read more

Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0335 AM CDT Fri Aug 30 2024 Valid 021200Z - 071200Z ...DISCUSSION... Global models appear to be in reasonable agreement through the medium range, with a long-wave upper trough crossing the eastern U.S. Day 4/Monday, and then shifting into the Canadian Maritimes and western Atlantic Day 5/Tuesday. Weak/low-amplitude flow aloft will prevail across the U.S. Day 5 and into Day 6/Wednesday, before the pattern begins to amplify again through Days 7-8 (Thursday and Friday, Sept. 5-6). This amplification anticipated late in the period will result in an eastern trough/western ridge configuration, with a cold front to progress across the eastern half of the country through the second half of the period. However, with the prior (Day 3) frontal advance across the southern U.S., and persistence of Canadian surface high pressure in its wake, rich/Gulf moisture is expected to remain confined to southern portions of the country. This should limit severe potential with the late-period system as it crosses the CONUS. As such, no severe-weather risk areas are being included in the forecast, as overall potential appears likely at this time to remain low through the end of the upcoming week. Read more

Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0335 AM CDT Fri Aug 30 2024 Valid 021200Z - 071200Z ...DISCUSSION... Global models appear to be in reasonable agreement through the medium range, with a long-wave upper trough crossing the eastern U.S. Day 4/Monday, and then shifting into the Canadian Maritimes and western Atlantic Day 5/Tuesday. Weak/low-amplitude flow aloft will prevail across the U.S. Day 5 and into Day 6/Wednesday, before the pattern begins to amplify again through Days 7-8 (Thursday and Friday, Sept. 5-6). This amplification anticipated late in the period will result in an eastern trough/western ridge configuration, with a cold front to progress across the eastern half of the country through the second half of the period. However, with the prior (Day 3) frontal advance across the southern U.S., and persistence of Canadian surface high pressure in its wake, rich/Gulf moisture is expected to remain confined to southern portions of the country. This should limit severe potential with the late-period system as it crosses the CONUS. As such, no severe-weather risk areas are being included in the forecast, as overall potential appears likely at this time to remain low through the end of the upcoming week. Read more

SPC 0730Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0233 AM CDT Fri Aug 30 2024 Valid 011200Z - 021200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM NEW ENGLAND TO THE CAROLINAS/SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS VICINITY... ...SUMMARY... Strong/isolated severe storms capable of producing gusty/damaging winds will be possible from New England to the Carolinas Sunday. ...Synopsis... A progressive/amplifying upper trough is forecast to continue shift eastward across eastern Canada/the eastern U.S. on Sunday, while upstream ridging prevails over the West. During the second half of the period (Sunday night), an eastern Pacific upper low should near/reach the Oregon/northern California Coast. At the surface, an initial cold front extending from New England to the Southeast will continue to dissipate. Meanwhile, a second/stronger front will continue shifting rapidly into the Northeast and across the Ohio Valley through the day, eventually overtaking the initial/weakening front. By Monday morning, the front will likely have moved off the New England and Mid-Atlantic Coasts, stretching westward from the Carolinas to Texas. ...New England to the Carolinas/southern Appalachians... As the reinforcing cold front advances quickly eastward/southeastward across the Northeast and central Appalachians Sunday, questions exist regarding potential for destabilization ahead of this front given the prior/dissipating front and associated convection lingering across the area at the start of the period. Presuming at least modest destabilization can occur, ascent along the advancing front combined with favorably strong flow aloft -- particularly across the Northeast -- would support fast-moving storms and attendant risk for damaging gusts through the afternoon and into the evening. While there are hints that sufficient moisture may linger across portions of New England to allow more substantial CAPE to evolve during the afternoon, which would yield greater severe potential, at this time uncertainty due to existing convection/cloud cover suggests that MRGL/5% risk remains most prudent at this time. ..Goss.. 08/30/2024 Read more

SPC 0730Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0233 AM CDT Fri Aug 30 2024 Valid 011200Z - 021200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM NEW ENGLAND TO THE CAROLINAS/SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS VICINITY... ...SUMMARY... Strong/isolated severe storms capable of producing gusty/damaging winds will be possible from New England to the Carolinas Sunday. ...Synopsis... A progressive/amplifying upper trough is forecast to continue shift eastward across eastern Canada/the eastern U.S. on Sunday, while upstream ridging prevails over the West. During the second half of the period (Sunday night), an eastern Pacific upper low should near/reach the Oregon/northern California Coast. At the surface, an initial cold front extending from New England to the Southeast will continue to dissipate. Meanwhile, a second/stronger front will continue shifting rapidly into the Northeast and across the Ohio Valley through the day, eventually overtaking the initial/weakening front. By Monday morning, the front will likely have moved off the New England and Mid-Atlantic Coasts, stretching westward from the Carolinas to Texas. ...New England to the Carolinas/southern Appalachians... As the reinforcing cold front advances quickly eastward/southeastward across the Northeast and central Appalachians Sunday, questions exist regarding potential for destabilization ahead of this front given the prior/dissipating front and associated convection lingering across the area at the start of the period. Presuming at least modest destabilization can occur, ascent along the advancing front combined with favorably strong flow aloft -- particularly across the Northeast -- would support fast-moving storms and attendant risk for damaging gusts through the afternoon and into the evening. While there are hints that sufficient moisture may linger across portions of New England to allow more substantial CAPE to evolve during the afternoon, which would yield greater severe potential, at this time uncertainty due to existing convection/cloud cover suggests that MRGL/5% risk remains most prudent at this time. ..Goss.. 08/30/2024 Read more

SPC 0730Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0233 AM CDT Fri Aug 30 2024 Valid 011200Z - 021200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM NEW ENGLAND TO THE CAROLINAS/SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS VICINITY... ...SUMMARY... Strong/isolated severe storms capable of producing gusty/damaging winds will be possible from New England to the Carolinas Sunday. ...Synopsis... A progressive/amplifying upper trough is forecast to continue shift eastward across eastern Canada/the eastern U.S. on Sunday, while upstream ridging prevails over the West. During the second half of the period (Sunday night), an eastern Pacific upper low should near/reach the Oregon/northern California Coast. At the surface, an initial cold front extending from New England to the Southeast will continue to dissipate. Meanwhile, a second/stronger front will continue shifting rapidly into the Northeast and across the Ohio Valley through the day, eventually overtaking the initial/weakening front. By Monday morning, the front will likely have moved off the New England and Mid-Atlantic Coasts, stretching westward from the Carolinas to Texas. ...New England to the Carolinas/southern Appalachians... As the reinforcing cold front advances quickly eastward/southeastward across the Northeast and central Appalachians Sunday, questions exist regarding potential for destabilization ahead of this front given the prior/dissipating front and associated convection lingering across the area at the start of the period. Presuming at least modest destabilization can occur, ascent along the advancing front combined with favorably strong flow aloft -- particularly across the Northeast -- would support fast-moving storms and attendant risk for damaging gusts through the afternoon and into the evening. While there are hints that sufficient moisture may linger across portions of New England to allow more substantial CAPE to evolve during the afternoon, which would yield greater severe potential, at this time uncertainty due to existing convection/cloud cover suggests that MRGL/5% risk remains most prudent at this time. ..Goss.. 08/30/2024 Read more

SPC 0730Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0233 AM CDT Fri Aug 30 2024 Valid 011200Z - 021200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM NEW ENGLAND TO THE CAROLINAS/SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS VICINITY... ...SUMMARY... Strong/isolated severe storms capable of producing gusty/damaging winds will be possible from New England to the Carolinas Sunday. ...Synopsis... A progressive/amplifying upper trough is forecast to continue shift eastward across eastern Canada/the eastern U.S. on Sunday, while upstream ridging prevails over the West. During the second half of the period (Sunday night), an eastern Pacific upper low should near/reach the Oregon/northern California Coast. At the surface, an initial cold front extending from New England to the Southeast will continue to dissipate. Meanwhile, a second/stronger front will continue shifting rapidly into the Northeast and across the Ohio Valley through the day, eventually overtaking the initial/weakening front. By Monday morning, the front will likely have moved off the New England and Mid-Atlantic Coasts, stretching westward from the Carolinas to Texas. ...New England to the Carolinas/southern Appalachians... As the reinforcing cold front advances quickly eastward/southeastward across the Northeast and central Appalachians Sunday, questions exist regarding potential for destabilization ahead of this front given the prior/dissipating front and associated convection lingering across the area at the start of the period. Presuming at least modest destabilization can occur, ascent along the advancing front combined with favorably strong flow aloft -- particularly across the Northeast -- would support fast-moving storms and attendant risk for damaging gusts through the afternoon and into the evening. While there are hints that sufficient moisture may linger across portions of New England to allow more substantial CAPE to evolve during the afternoon, which would yield greater severe potential, at this time uncertainty due to existing convection/cloud cover suggests that MRGL/5% risk remains most prudent at this time. ..Goss.. 08/30/2024 Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0115 AM CDT Fri Aug 30 2024 Valid 311200Z - 011200Z ...Synopsis... Fire weather concerns will remain confined to portions of the Great Basin for Saturday. Upper-level ridging currently over the western CONUS will begin to slowly shift east towards the central Rockies over the next 48-72 hours. As this occurs, a modest plume of monsoonal moisture will spread north/northwest into southeastern NV and southwest UT. Weak mid/upper-level ascent impinging on the fringe of the moisture plume should support isolated thunderstorms by late afternoon. A deep, well-mixed boundary layer will promote limited rainfall with this activity over a region with generally receptive fuels (ERC values at/above the 80th percentile). Consequently, dry lightning will be a fire weather concern. Elsewhere across the West, dry conditions will persist, and increasing mid-level flow along the West Coast may support some breezy conditions in the immediate lee of the central to southern Sierra Nevada. However, confidence in widespread elevated conditions remains too limited for highlights. ..Moore.. 08/30/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0115 AM CDT Fri Aug 30 2024 Valid 311200Z - 011200Z ...Synopsis... Fire weather concerns will remain confined to portions of the Great Basin for Saturday. Upper-level ridging currently over the western CONUS will begin to slowly shift east towards the central Rockies over the next 48-72 hours. As this occurs, a modest plume of monsoonal moisture will spread north/northwest into southeastern NV and southwest UT. Weak mid/upper-level ascent impinging on the fringe of the moisture plume should support isolated thunderstorms by late afternoon. A deep, well-mixed boundary layer will promote limited rainfall with this activity over a region with generally receptive fuels (ERC values at/above the 80th percentile). Consequently, dry lightning will be a fire weather concern. Elsewhere across the West, dry conditions will persist, and increasing mid-level flow along the West Coast may support some breezy conditions in the immediate lee of the central to southern Sierra Nevada. However, confidence in widespread elevated conditions remains too limited for highlights. ..Moore.. 08/30/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0115 AM CDT Fri Aug 30 2024 Valid 311200Z - 011200Z ...Synopsis... Fire weather concerns will remain confined to portions of the Great Basin for Saturday. Upper-level ridging currently over the western CONUS will begin to slowly shift east towards the central Rockies over the next 48-72 hours. As this occurs, a modest plume of monsoonal moisture will spread north/northwest into southeastern NV and southwest UT. Weak mid/upper-level ascent impinging on the fringe of the moisture plume should support isolated thunderstorms by late afternoon. A deep, well-mixed boundary layer will promote limited rainfall with this activity over a region with generally receptive fuels (ERC values at/above the 80th percentile). Consequently, dry lightning will be a fire weather concern. Elsewhere across the West, dry conditions will persist, and increasing mid-level flow along the West Coast may support some breezy conditions in the immediate lee of the central to southern Sierra Nevada. However, confidence in widespread elevated conditions remains too limited for highlights. ..Moore.. 08/30/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0115 AM CDT Fri Aug 30 2024 Valid 311200Z - 011200Z ...Synopsis... Fire weather concerns will remain confined to portions of the Great Basin for Saturday. Upper-level ridging currently over the western CONUS will begin to slowly shift east towards the central Rockies over the next 48-72 hours. As this occurs, a modest plume of monsoonal moisture will spread north/northwest into southeastern NV and southwest UT. Weak mid/upper-level ascent impinging on the fringe of the moisture plume should support isolated thunderstorms by late afternoon. A deep, well-mixed boundary layer will promote limited rainfall with this activity over a region with generally receptive fuels (ERC values at/above the 80th percentile). Consequently, dry lightning will be a fire weather concern. Elsewhere across the West, dry conditions will persist, and increasing mid-level flow along the West Coast may support some breezy conditions in the immediate lee of the central to southern Sierra Nevada. However, confidence in widespread elevated conditions remains too limited for highlights. ..Moore.. 08/30/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC 0600Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0103 AM CDT Fri Aug 30 2024 Valid 311200Z - 011200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE CENTRAL APPALACHIANS AREA... ...SUMMARY... Severe potential -- mainly in the form of damaging gusts -- is expected across portions of the northeast/central Appalachians and into the Tennessee and Ohio Valleys Saturday. A few strong/severe gusts may also occur over parts of the Upper Mississippi Valley vicinity during the afternoon. ...Synopsis... An upper trough moving across central Canada and the Great Lakes region will amplify modestly as it progresses eastward through Saturday night. Meanwhile, large-scale upper ridging will continue to prevail over the West. At the surface, a weakening cold front will continue moving eastward across the Lower Great Lakes and Ohio Valley into the Northeast and Tennessee Valley area through Saturday afternoon and evening. Meanwhile, a much stronger cold front is forecast to shift rapidly southeastward/southward out of Canada across the Upper Great Lakes and northern/central Plains through the period. ...Portions of the Northeast west-southwestward across the Ohio and Tennessee Valleys... As a weakening cold front shifts southeastward into the Northeast/across the Ohio Valley during the afternoon in tandem with weak mid-level height falls, heating/destabilization will support development of bands of thunderstorms across this region. The strongest flow aloft will remain across New York and into Pennsylvania, with weaker flow southwestward along the front. However, more substantial CAPE is expected farther south/southwest. The best juxtaposition of favorable kinematics and ample instability is forecast from portions of southeastern New York southwestward into the West Virginia/Maryland/northern Virginia vicinity. Here, locally damaging winds and some hail will be possible -- particularly during the afternoon hours. Lesser risk will extend southwestward -- potentially as far west-southwest as the middle Mississippi Valley area. ...Upper Mississippi Valley vicinity... As a strong cold front advances south-southeastward across the Northern Plains/Upper Great Lakes region ahead of a digging mid-level short-wave through, weak/rather low-topped instability is forecast to develop during the afternoon. This will support widely scattered thunderstorm development near the advancing front, within a very favorably strong kinematic environment. As such, fast-moving storms will be capable of producing gusty/damaging winds locally, before storms diminish after sunset. ..Goss.. 08/30/2024 Read more