Severe Storms

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0254 PM CDT Thu Aug 29 2024 Valid 292000Z - 301200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF MINNESOTA AND WESTERN WISCONSIN... ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER PORTIONS OF THE UPPER MIDWEST AS WELL AS THE MID ATLANTIC.... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are expected this afternoon and evening over portions of the Upper Midwest, with a threat for tornadoes, damaging winds, and sporadic large hail, especially across parts of Minnesota into western Wisconsin. Other severe storms are expected across the central Plains and Mid-Atlantic/Carolinas. ...20z Update... Minimal changes were made to the prior outlook. Thunder probabilities have been lowered across western parts of the central Plains behind the cold front. An isolated severe storm will be possible ahead of the front from the central Plains southward into the southern High Plains. Moderate buoyancy is supporting a fair amount of convection with some potential for damaging outflow winds or marginally severe hail. However, weaker deep-layer shear and modest large-scale ascent should keep the threat minimal prior to frontal passage later tonight. Across parts of the upper MS Valley and Midwest will maintain the Level 2/3 Slight/Enhanced as is. Scattered storms are ongoing and expected to increase in coverage through the afternoon and into this evening. Increasing deep-layer shear and partial heating ahead of the bands of storms near the cold front should allow for more robust/organized storms to gradually develop through the remainder of the afternoon. With the expected convective coverage, storm mode is trending toward more linear solutions, though moderate deep-layer shear and strong low-level turning with height may support a few embedded or semi-discrete supercell structures. Damaging winds are the primary threat, but occasional large hail and a couple of tornadoes are possible, especially near the warm front with any of the more persistent rotating features. Across the central Appalachians and Mid Atlantic, no changes were made to the severe risk area. The predominate hazard remains a few multi-cell clusters capable of damaging wind gusts. Convection ongoing over the higher terrain in western VA/PA and WV should gradually expand eastward, with some potential for consolidating outflow. See the prior outlook for more information. ..Lyons.. 08/29/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1147 AM CDT Thu Aug 29 2024/ ...Upper Midwest/Central Plains... Have upgraded portions of central/eastern Minnesota into western Wisconsin to Enhanced Risk for a perceived greater aggregate severe risk, highlighted by a transition to an increased damaging wind potential by evening. An upper-level trough will continue generally east-northeastward from southern Saskatchewan toward Manitoba and eventually far northwest Ontario late tonight, with southern-peripheral height falls and moderately strong southwesterly winds aloft as far south as the far eastern Dakotas and Minnesota into Wisconsin. Scattered thunderstorm development is expected by mid-afternoon along the front from northern Minnesota south-southwestward into southwest Minnesota and the central Plains including eastern/southern Nebraska into northwest Kansas. The most severe-favorable ingredients are expected across central/southern Minnesota, where 2500-3500 J/kg MLCAPE will coincide with 30-40 kt effective shear. Some initial supercells can be expected with large hail. Tornado potential should be maximized across central Minnesota and possibly far western Wisconsin in vicinity of a weak surface wave/warm front-related triple point, where low-level moisture/SRH will be maximized, somewhat analogous to the South Dakota/North Dakota border vicinity yesterday late afternoon and early evening. Storms should otherwise steadily grow upscale by early evening, with storm mergers leading to quasi-linear segments and possible bows with an increased damaging wind potential across Iowa, and especially eastern Minnesota into western Wisconsin. ...Carolinas/Mid-Atlantic including parts Virginia/Pennsylvania... Scattered multicell thunderstorms are expected to form this afternoon, offering isolated damaging wind gusts and marginally severe hail. This activity will develop in a plume of rich low-level moisture, with lower-elevation surface dewpoints in the upper 60s to low 70s F. That, along with diurnal heating offsetting modest mid-level lapse rates, should support MLCAPE in the 2000-3000 J/kg range. Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0254 PM CDT Thu Aug 29 2024 Valid 292000Z - 301200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF MINNESOTA AND WESTERN WISCONSIN... ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER PORTIONS OF THE UPPER MIDWEST AS WELL AS THE MID ATLANTIC.... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are expected this afternoon and evening over portions of the Upper Midwest, with a threat for tornadoes, damaging winds, and sporadic large hail, especially across parts of Minnesota into western Wisconsin. Other severe storms are expected across the central Plains and Mid-Atlantic/Carolinas. ...20z Update... Minimal changes were made to the prior outlook. Thunder probabilities have been lowered across western parts of the central Plains behind the cold front. An isolated severe storm will be possible ahead of the front from the central Plains southward into the southern High Plains. Moderate buoyancy is supporting a fair amount of convection with some potential for damaging outflow winds or marginally severe hail. However, weaker deep-layer shear and modest large-scale ascent should keep the threat minimal prior to frontal passage later tonight. Across parts of the upper MS Valley and Midwest will maintain the Level 2/3 Slight/Enhanced as is. Scattered storms are ongoing and expected to increase in coverage through the afternoon and into this evening. Increasing deep-layer shear and partial heating ahead of the bands of storms near the cold front should allow for more robust/organized storms to gradually develop through the remainder of the afternoon. With the expected convective coverage, storm mode is trending toward more linear solutions, though moderate deep-layer shear and strong low-level turning with height may support a few embedded or semi-discrete supercell structures. Damaging winds are the primary threat, but occasional large hail and a couple of tornadoes are possible, especially near the warm front with any of the more persistent rotating features. Across the central Appalachians and Mid Atlantic, no changes were made to the severe risk area. The predominate hazard remains a few multi-cell clusters capable of damaging wind gusts. Convection ongoing over the higher terrain in western VA/PA and WV should gradually expand eastward, with some potential for consolidating outflow. See the prior outlook for more information. ..Lyons.. 08/29/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1147 AM CDT Thu Aug 29 2024/ ...Upper Midwest/Central Plains... Have upgraded portions of central/eastern Minnesota into western Wisconsin to Enhanced Risk for a perceived greater aggregate severe risk, highlighted by a transition to an increased damaging wind potential by evening. An upper-level trough will continue generally east-northeastward from southern Saskatchewan toward Manitoba and eventually far northwest Ontario late tonight, with southern-peripheral height falls and moderately strong southwesterly winds aloft as far south as the far eastern Dakotas and Minnesota into Wisconsin. Scattered thunderstorm development is expected by mid-afternoon along the front from northern Minnesota south-southwestward into southwest Minnesota and the central Plains including eastern/southern Nebraska into northwest Kansas. The most severe-favorable ingredients are expected across central/southern Minnesota, where 2500-3500 J/kg MLCAPE will coincide with 30-40 kt effective shear. Some initial supercells can be expected with large hail. Tornado potential should be maximized across central Minnesota and possibly far western Wisconsin in vicinity of a weak surface wave/warm front-related triple point, where low-level moisture/SRH will be maximized, somewhat analogous to the South Dakota/North Dakota border vicinity yesterday late afternoon and early evening. Storms should otherwise steadily grow upscale by early evening, with storm mergers leading to quasi-linear segments and possible bows with an increased damaging wind potential across Iowa, and especially eastern Minnesota into western Wisconsin. ...Carolinas/Mid-Atlantic including parts Virginia/Pennsylvania... Scattered multicell thunderstorms are expected to form this afternoon, offering isolated damaging wind gusts and marginally severe hail. This activity will develop in a plume of rich low-level moisture, with lower-elevation surface dewpoints in the upper 60s to low 70s F. That, along with diurnal heating offsetting modest mid-level lapse rates, should support MLCAPE in the 2000-3000 J/kg range. Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0254 PM CDT Thu Aug 29 2024 Valid 292000Z - 301200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF MINNESOTA AND WESTERN WISCONSIN... ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER PORTIONS OF THE UPPER MIDWEST AS WELL AS THE MID ATLANTIC.... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are expected this afternoon and evening over portions of the Upper Midwest, with a threat for tornadoes, damaging winds, and sporadic large hail, especially across parts of Minnesota into western Wisconsin. Other severe storms are expected across the central Plains and Mid-Atlantic/Carolinas. ...20z Update... Minimal changes were made to the prior outlook. Thunder probabilities have been lowered across western parts of the central Plains behind the cold front. An isolated severe storm will be possible ahead of the front from the central Plains southward into the southern High Plains. Moderate buoyancy is supporting a fair amount of convection with some potential for damaging outflow winds or marginally severe hail. However, weaker deep-layer shear and modest large-scale ascent should keep the threat minimal prior to frontal passage later tonight. Across parts of the upper MS Valley and Midwest will maintain the Level 2/3 Slight/Enhanced as is. Scattered storms are ongoing and expected to increase in coverage through the afternoon and into this evening. Increasing deep-layer shear and partial heating ahead of the bands of storms near the cold front should allow for more robust/organized storms to gradually develop through the remainder of the afternoon. With the expected convective coverage, storm mode is trending toward more linear solutions, though moderate deep-layer shear and strong low-level turning with height may support a few embedded or semi-discrete supercell structures. Damaging winds are the primary threat, but occasional large hail and a couple of tornadoes are possible, especially near the warm front with any of the more persistent rotating features. Across the central Appalachians and Mid Atlantic, no changes were made to the severe risk area. The predominate hazard remains a few multi-cell clusters capable of damaging wind gusts. Convection ongoing over the higher terrain in western VA/PA and WV should gradually expand eastward, with some potential for consolidating outflow. See the prior outlook for more information. ..Lyons.. 08/29/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1147 AM CDT Thu Aug 29 2024/ ...Upper Midwest/Central Plains... Have upgraded portions of central/eastern Minnesota into western Wisconsin to Enhanced Risk for a perceived greater aggregate severe risk, highlighted by a transition to an increased damaging wind potential by evening. An upper-level trough will continue generally east-northeastward from southern Saskatchewan toward Manitoba and eventually far northwest Ontario late tonight, with southern-peripheral height falls and moderately strong southwesterly winds aloft as far south as the far eastern Dakotas and Minnesota into Wisconsin. Scattered thunderstorm development is expected by mid-afternoon along the front from northern Minnesota south-southwestward into southwest Minnesota and the central Plains including eastern/southern Nebraska into northwest Kansas. The most severe-favorable ingredients are expected across central/southern Minnesota, where 2500-3500 J/kg MLCAPE will coincide with 30-40 kt effective shear. Some initial supercells can be expected with large hail. Tornado potential should be maximized across central Minnesota and possibly far western Wisconsin in vicinity of a weak surface wave/warm front-related triple point, where low-level moisture/SRH will be maximized, somewhat analogous to the South Dakota/North Dakota border vicinity yesterday late afternoon and early evening. Storms should otherwise steadily grow upscale by early evening, with storm mergers leading to quasi-linear segments and possible bows with an increased damaging wind potential across Iowa, and especially eastern Minnesota into western Wisconsin. ...Carolinas/Mid-Atlantic including parts Virginia/Pennsylvania... Scattered multicell thunderstorms are expected to form this afternoon, offering isolated damaging wind gusts and marginally severe hail. This activity will develop in a plume of rich low-level moisture, with lower-elevation surface dewpoints in the upper 60s to low 70s F. That, along with diurnal heating offsetting modest mid-level lapse rates, should support MLCAPE in the 2000-3000 J/kg range. Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0254 PM CDT Thu Aug 29 2024 Valid 292000Z - 301200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF MINNESOTA AND WESTERN WISCONSIN... ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER PORTIONS OF THE UPPER MIDWEST AS WELL AS THE MID ATLANTIC.... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are expected this afternoon and evening over portions of the Upper Midwest, with a threat for tornadoes, damaging winds, and sporadic large hail, especially across parts of Minnesota into western Wisconsin. Other severe storms are expected across the central Plains and Mid-Atlantic/Carolinas. ...20z Update... Minimal changes were made to the prior outlook. Thunder probabilities have been lowered across western parts of the central Plains behind the cold front. An isolated severe storm will be possible ahead of the front from the central Plains southward into the southern High Plains. Moderate buoyancy is supporting a fair amount of convection with some potential for damaging outflow winds or marginally severe hail. However, weaker deep-layer shear and modest large-scale ascent should keep the threat minimal prior to frontal passage later tonight. Across parts of the upper MS Valley and Midwest will maintain the Level 2/3 Slight/Enhanced as is. Scattered storms are ongoing and expected to increase in coverage through the afternoon and into this evening. Increasing deep-layer shear and partial heating ahead of the bands of storms near the cold front should allow for more robust/organized storms to gradually develop through the remainder of the afternoon. With the expected convective coverage, storm mode is trending toward more linear solutions, though moderate deep-layer shear and strong low-level turning with height may support a few embedded or semi-discrete supercell structures. Damaging winds are the primary threat, but occasional large hail and a couple of tornadoes are possible, especially near the warm front with any of the more persistent rotating features. Across the central Appalachians and Mid Atlantic, no changes were made to the severe risk area. The predominate hazard remains a few multi-cell clusters capable of damaging wind gusts. Convection ongoing over the higher terrain in western VA/PA and WV should gradually expand eastward, with some potential for consolidating outflow. See the prior outlook for more information. ..Lyons.. 08/29/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1147 AM CDT Thu Aug 29 2024/ ...Upper Midwest/Central Plains... Have upgraded portions of central/eastern Minnesota into western Wisconsin to Enhanced Risk for a perceived greater aggregate severe risk, highlighted by a transition to an increased damaging wind potential by evening. An upper-level trough will continue generally east-northeastward from southern Saskatchewan toward Manitoba and eventually far northwest Ontario late tonight, with southern-peripheral height falls and moderately strong southwesterly winds aloft as far south as the far eastern Dakotas and Minnesota into Wisconsin. Scattered thunderstorm development is expected by mid-afternoon along the front from northern Minnesota south-southwestward into southwest Minnesota and the central Plains including eastern/southern Nebraska into northwest Kansas. The most severe-favorable ingredients are expected across central/southern Minnesota, where 2500-3500 J/kg MLCAPE will coincide with 30-40 kt effective shear. Some initial supercells can be expected with large hail. Tornado potential should be maximized across central Minnesota and possibly far western Wisconsin in vicinity of a weak surface wave/warm front-related triple point, where low-level moisture/SRH will be maximized, somewhat analogous to the South Dakota/North Dakota border vicinity yesterday late afternoon and early evening. Storms should otherwise steadily grow upscale by early evening, with storm mergers leading to quasi-linear segments and possible bows with an increased damaging wind potential across Iowa, and especially eastern Minnesota into western Wisconsin. ...Carolinas/Mid-Atlantic including parts Virginia/Pennsylvania... Scattered multicell thunderstorms are expected to form this afternoon, offering isolated damaging wind gusts and marginally severe hail. This activity will develop in a plume of rich low-level moisture, with lower-elevation surface dewpoints in the upper 60s to low 70s F. That, along with diurnal heating offsetting modest mid-level lapse rates, should support MLCAPE in the 2000-3000 J/kg range. Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0254 PM CDT Thu Aug 29 2024 Valid 292000Z - 301200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF MINNESOTA AND WESTERN WISCONSIN... ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER PORTIONS OF THE UPPER MIDWEST AS WELL AS THE MID ATLANTIC.... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are expected this afternoon and evening over portions of the Upper Midwest, with a threat for tornadoes, damaging winds, and sporadic large hail, especially across parts of Minnesota into western Wisconsin. Other severe storms are expected across the central Plains and Mid-Atlantic/Carolinas. ...20z Update... Minimal changes were made to the prior outlook. Thunder probabilities have been lowered across western parts of the central Plains behind the cold front. An isolated severe storm will be possible ahead of the front from the central Plains southward into the southern High Plains. Moderate buoyancy is supporting a fair amount of convection with some potential for damaging outflow winds or marginally severe hail. However, weaker deep-layer shear and modest large-scale ascent should keep the threat minimal prior to frontal passage later tonight. Across parts of the upper MS Valley and Midwest will maintain the Level 2/3 Slight/Enhanced as is. Scattered storms are ongoing and expected to increase in coverage through the afternoon and into this evening. Increasing deep-layer shear and partial heating ahead of the bands of storms near the cold front should allow for more robust/organized storms to gradually develop through the remainder of the afternoon. With the expected convective coverage, storm mode is trending toward more linear solutions, though moderate deep-layer shear and strong low-level turning with height may support a few embedded or semi-discrete supercell structures. Damaging winds are the primary threat, but occasional large hail and a couple of tornadoes are possible, especially near the warm front with any of the more persistent rotating features. Across the central Appalachians and Mid Atlantic, no changes were made to the severe risk area. The predominate hazard remains a few multi-cell clusters capable of damaging wind gusts. Convection ongoing over the higher terrain in western VA/PA and WV should gradually expand eastward, with some potential for consolidating outflow. See the prior outlook for more information. ..Lyons.. 08/29/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1147 AM CDT Thu Aug 29 2024/ ...Upper Midwest/Central Plains... Have upgraded portions of central/eastern Minnesota into western Wisconsin to Enhanced Risk for a perceived greater aggregate severe risk, highlighted by a transition to an increased damaging wind potential by evening. An upper-level trough will continue generally east-northeastward from southern Saskatchewan toward Manitoba and eventually far northwest Ontario late tonight, with southern-peripheral height falls and moderately strong southwesterly winds aloft as far south as the far eastern Dakotas and Minnesota into Wisconsin. Scattered thunderstorm development is expected by mid-afternoon along the front from northern Minnesota south-southwestward into southwest Minnesota and the central Plains including eastern/southern Nebraska into northwest Kansas. The most severe-favorable ingredients are expected across central/southern Minnesota, where 2500-3500 J/kg MLCAPE will coincide with 30-40 kt effective shear. Some initial supercells can be expected with large hail. Tornado potential should be maximized across central Minnesota and possibly far western Wisconsin in vicinity of a weak surface wave/warm front-related triple point, where low-level moisture/SRH will be maximized, somewhat analogous to the South Dakota/North Dakota border vicinity yesterday late afternoon and early evening. Storms should otherwise steadily grow upscale by early evening, with storm mergers leading to quasi-linear segments and possible bows with an increased damaging wind potential across Iowa, and especially eastern Minnesota into western Wisconsin. ...Carolinas/Mid-Atlantic including parts Virginia/Pennsylvania... Scattered multicell thunderstorms are expected to form this afternoon, offering isolated damaging wind gusts and marginally severe hail. This activity will develop in a plume of rich low-level moisture, with lower-elevation surface dewpoints in the upper 60s to low 70s F. That, along with diurnal heating offsetting modest mid-level lapse rates, should support MLCAPE in the 2000-3000 J/kg range. Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0254 PM CDT Thu Aug 29 2024 Valid 292000Z - 301200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF MINNESOTA AND WESTERN WISCONSIN... ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER PORTIONS OF THE UPPER MIDWEST AS WELL AS THE MID ATLANTIC.... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are expected this afternoon and evening over portions of the Upper Midwest, with a threat for tornadoes, damaging winds, and sporadic large hail, especially across parts of Minnesota into western Wisconsin. Other severe storms are expected across the central Plains and Mid-Atlantic/Carolinas. ...20z Update... Minimal changes were made to the prior outlook. Thunder probabilities have been lowered across western parts of the central Plains behind the cold front. An isolated severe storm will be possible ahead of the front from the central Plains southward into the southern High Plains. Moderate buoyancy is supporting a fair amount of convection with some potential for damaging outflow winds or marginally severe hail. However, weaker deep-layer shear and modest large-scale ascent should keep the threat minimal prior to frontal passage later tonight. Across parts of the upper MS Valley and Midwest will maintain the Level 2/3 Slight/Enhanced as is. Scattered storms are ongoing and expected to increase in coverage through the afternoon and into this evening. Increasing deep-layer shear and partial heating ahead of the bands of storms near the cold front should allow for more robust/organized storms to gradually develop through the remainder of the afternoon. With the expected convective coverage, storm mode is trending toward more linear solutions, though moderate deep-layer shear and strong low-level turning with height may support a few embedded or semi-discrete supercell structures. Damaging winds are the primary threat, but occasional large hail and a couple of tornadoes are possible, especially near the warm front with any of the more persistent rotating features. Across the central Appalachians and Mid Atlantic, no changes were made to the severe risk area. The predominate hazard remains a few multi-cell clusters capable of damaging wind gusts. Convection ongoing over the higher terrain in western VA/PA and WV should gradually expand eastward, with some potential for consolidating outflow. See the prior outlook for more information. ..Lyons.. 08/29/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1147 AM CDT Thu Aug 29 2024/ ...Upper Midwest/Central Plains... Have upgraded portions of central/eastern Minnesota into western Wisconsin to Enhanced Risk for a perceived greater aggregate severe risk, highlighted by a transition to an increased damaging wind potential by evening. An upper-level trough will continue generally east-northeastward from southern Saskatchewan toward Manitoba and eventually far northwest Ontario late tonight, with southern-peripheral height falls and moderately strong southwesterly winds aloft as far south as the far eastern Dakotas and Minnesota into Wisconsin. Scattered thunderstorm development is expected by mid-afternoon along the front from northern Minnesota south-southwestward into southwest Minnesota and the central Plains including eastern/southern Nebraska into northwest Kansas. The most severe-favorable ingredients are expected across central/southern Minnesota, where 2500-3500 J/kg MLCAPE will coincide with 30-40 kt effective shear. Some initial supercells can be expected with large hail. Tornado potential should be maximized across central Minnesota and possibly far western Wisconsin in vicinity of a weak surface wave/warm front-related triple point, where low-level moisture/SRH will be maximized, somewhat analogous to the South Dakota/North Dakota border vicinity yesterday late afternoon and early evening. Storms should otherwise steadily grow upscale by early evening, with storm mergers leading to quasi-linear segments and possible bows with an increased damaging wind potential across Iowa, and especially eastern Minnesota into western Wisconsin. ...Carolinas/Mid-Atlantic including parts Virginia/Pennsylvania... Scattered multicell thunderstorms are expected to form this afternoon, offering isolated damaging wind gusts and marginally severe hail. This activity will develop in a plume of rich low-level moisture, with lower-elevation surface dewpoints in the upper 60s to low 70s F. That, along with diurnal heating offsetting modest mid-level lapse rates, should support MLCAPE in the 2000-3000 J/kg range. Read more

WW 0663 Status Updates
STATUS FOR WATCH 0663 HAS NOT BEEN ISSUED YET Read more

WW 0663 Status Updates
STATUS FOR WATCH 0663 HAS NOT BEEN ISSUED YET Read more

WW 0663 Status Updates
STATUS FOR WATCH 0663 HAS NOT BEEN ISSUED YET Read more

WW 0663 Status Updates
STATUS FOR WATCH 0663 HAS NOT BEEN ISSUED YET Read more

MD 2029 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH LIKELY FOR PORTIONS OF WESTERN INTO CENTRAL MINNESOTA
Mesoscale Discussion 2029 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1240 PM CDT Thu Aug 29 2024 Areas affected...Portions of western into central Minnesota Concerning...Severe potential...Watch likely Valid 291740Z - 291945Z Probability of Watch Issuance...80 percent SUMMARY...Storm coverage and intensity will increase this afternoon in western/central Minnesota. Some initial storms will be supercellular and be capable of large hail and damaging winds. Somewhat rapid upscale growth is expected which will transition the primary threat to damaging winds later this afternoon. A watch is likely in the next 1-2 hours. DISCUSSION...Visible satellite/mosaic radar imagery shows a steady increase in convection along/ahead of a cold front near the western Minnesota border. As temperatures continue to warm into the low/mid 80s in west-central/southwest Minnesota, MLCIN will continue to erode and convection should intensify with time and likely expand in coverage as well. Damaging winds will be possible as will large hail. The large hail potential may be maximized farther north where shear is stronger and the mode may remain discrete longer. Though the tornado risk will not be zero, the stronger 850 mb winds are expected to translate eastward with time and the larger low-level SRH should reside closer to the slowly lifting warm front within the Mississippi Valley. The tornado threat is expected to be greater farther east. The main uncertainty is how long a discrete mode will be maintained (most guidance shows relatively quick upscale growth along the front) and when storms will become severe. The current thinking is that a watch will be needed in the next 1-2 hours. ..Wendt/Guyer.. 08/29/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...DLH...MPX...FGF...FSD... LAT...LON 43909606 47139599 47659547 47529493 46469442 44129441 43569496 43639590 43909606 Read more

WW 0662 Status Updates
STATUS FOR WATCH 0662 HAS NOT BEEN ISSUED YET Read more

SPC 1930Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0230 PM CDT Thu Aug 29 2024 Valid 311200Z - 011200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE NORTHEAST AND UPPER OHIO VALLEY... ...SUMMARY... Isolated severe risk may evolve across portions of the northeast/central Appalachians/Upper Ohio Valley area Saturday. ...Synopsis... A relatively deep upper-level trough is forecast to remain in place from eastern Canada into the Great Lakes and Northeast on Saturday. Within the large-scale trough, a weak shortwave may move through parts of the lower Great Lakes/upper Ohio Valley, while a stronger upstream shortwave will move toward the upper Great Lakes region. A cold front is expected to move eastward across parts of the Northeast and Ohio Valley. A stronger cold front will move through parts of the northern Plains and upper Great Lakes, in association with the southeastward-moving shortwave trough. ...Parts of the upper Ohio Valley into the Northeast... Scattered thunderstorms are forecast to develop Saturday along/ahead of the front across parts of NY/PA into the upper Ohio Valley region. There will be some displacement of stronger flow/shear to the north with stronger instability to the south, but the environment will likely become at least marginally supportive of organized convection across the region during the afternoon. A few stronger cells and/or small clusters may evolve with time and pose a threat of locally damaging wind and perhaps some isolated hail. ...Upper Great Lakes vicinity... Considerable uncertainty remains regarding the extent of destabilization near the strong front that is forecast to move southeastward across the upper Great Lakes region. However, favorable ascent attendant to the shortwave trough may aid in at least isolated convective development along the front during the afternoon/evening. Strengthening low/midlevel flow could support some severe threat with any deeper convection, though this potential remains uncertain and will be dependent on the magnitude of prefrontal destabilization. ..Dean.. 08/29/2024 Read more

SPC 1930Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0230 PM CDT Thu Aug 29 2024 Valid 311200Z - 011200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE NORTHEAST AND UPPER OHIO VALLEY... ...SUMMARY... Isolated severe risk may evolve across portions of the northeast/central Appalachians/Upper Ohio Valley area Saturday. ...Synopsis... A relatively deep upper-level trough is forecast to remain in place from eastern Canada into the Great Lakes and Northeast on Saturday. Within the large-scale trough, a weak shortwave may move through parts of the lower Great Lakes/upper Ohio Valley, while a stronger upstream shortwave will move toward the upper Great Lakes region. A cold front is expected to move eastward across parts of the Northeast and Ohio Valley. A stronger cold front will move through parts of the northern Plains and upper Great Lakes, in association with the southeastward-moving shortwave trough. ...Parts of the upper Ohio Valley into the Northeast... Scattered thunderstorms are forecast to develop Saturday along/ahead of the front across parts of NY/PA into the upper Ohio Valley region. There will be some displacement of stronger flow/shear to the north with stronger instability to the south, but the environment will likely become at least marginally supportive of organized convection across the region during the afternoon. A few stronger cells and/or small clusters may evolve with time and pose a threat of locally damaging wind and perhaps some isolated hail. ...Upper Great Lakes vicinity... Considerable uncertainty remains regarding the extent of destabilization near the strong front that is forecast to move southeastward across the upper Great Lakes region. However, favorable ascent attendant to the shortwave trough may aid in at least isolated convective development along the front during the afternoon/evening. Strengthening low/midlevel flow could support some severe threat with any deeper convection, though this potential remains uncertain and will be dependent on the magnitude of prefrontal destabilization. ..Dean.. 08/29/2024 Read more

SPC 1930Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0230 PM CDT Thu Aug 29 2024 Valid 311200Z - 011200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE NORTHEAST AND UPPER OHIO VALLEY... ...SUMMARY... Isolated severe risk may evolve across portions of the northeast/central Appalachians/Upper Ohio Valley area Saturday. ...Synopsis... A relatively deep upper-level trough is forecast to remain in place from eastern Canada into the Great Lakes and Northeast on Saturday. Within the large-scale trough, a weak shortwave may move through parts of the lower Great Lakes/upper Ohio Valley, while a stronger upstream shortwave will move toward the upper Great Lakes region. A cold front is expected to move eastward across parts of the Northeast and Ohio Valley. A stronger cold front will move through parts of the northern Plains and upper Great Lakes, in association with the southeastward-moving shortwave trough. ...Parts of the upper Ohio Valley into the Northeast... Scattered thunderstorms are forecast to develop Saturday along/ahead of the front across parts of NY/PA into the upper Ohio Valley region. There will be some displacement of stronger flow/shear to the north with stronger instability to the south, but the environment will likely become at least marginally supportive of organized convection across the region during the afternoon. A few stronger cells and/or small clusters may evolve with time and pose a threat of locally damaging wind and perhaps some isolated hail. ...Upper Great Lakes vicinity... Considerable uncertainty remains regarding the extent of destabilization near the strong front that is forecast to move southeastward across the upper Great Lakes region. However, favorable ascent attendant to the shortwave trough may aid in at least isolated convective development along the front during the afternoon/evening. Strengthening low/midlevel flow could support some severe threat with any deeper convection, though this potential remains uncertain and will be dependent on the magnitude of prefrontal destabilization. ..Dean.. 08/29/2024 Read more

SPC 1930Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0230 PM CDT Thu Aug 29 2024 Valid 311200Z - 011200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE NORTHEAST AND UPPER OHIO VALLEY... ...SUMMARY... Isolated severe risk may evolve across portions of the northeast/central Appalachians/Upper Ohio Valley area Saturday. ...Synopsis... A relatively deep upper-level trough is forecast to remain in place from eastern Canada into the Great Lakes and Northeast on Saturday. Within the large-scale trough, a weak shortwave may move through parts of the lower Great Lakes/upper Ohio Valley, while a stronger upstream shortwave will move toward the upper Great Lakes region. A cold front is expected to move eastward across parts of the Northeast and Ohio Valley. A stronger cold front will move through parts of the northern Plains and upper Great Lakes, in association with the southeastward-moving shortwave trough. ...Parts of the upper Ohio Valley into the Northeast... Scattered thunderstorms are forecast to develop Saturday along/ahead of the front across parts of NY/PA into the upper Ohio Valley region. There will be some displacement of stronger flow/shear to the north with stronger instability to the south, but the environment will likely become at least marginally supportive of organized convection across the region during the afternoon. A few stronger cells and/or small clusters may evolve with time and pose a threat of locally damaging wind and perhaps some isolated hail. ...Upper Great Lakes vicinity... Considerable uncertainty remains regarding the extent of destabilization near the strong front that is forecast to move southeastward across the upper Great Lakes region. However, favorable ascent attendant to the shortwave trough may aid in at least isolated convective development along the front during the afternoon/evening. Strengthening low/midlevel flow could support some severe threat with any deeper convection, though this potential remains uncertain and will be dependent on the magnitude of prefrontal destabilization. ..Dean.. 08/29/2024 Read more

SPC 1930Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0230 PM CDT Thu Aug 29 2024 Valid 311200Z - 011200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE NORTHEAST AND UPPER OHIO VALLEY... ...SUMMARY... Isolated severe risk may evolve across portions of the northeast/central Appalachians/Upper Ohio Valley area Saturday. ...Synopsis... A relatively deep upper-level trough is forecast to remain in place from eastern Canada into the Great Lakes and Northeast on Saturday. Within the large-scale trough, a weak shortwave may move through parts of the lower Great Lakes/upper Ohio Valley, while a stronger upstream shortwave will move toward the upper Great Lakes region. A cold front is expected to move eastward across parts of the Northeast and Ohio Valley. A stronger cold front will move through parts of the northern Plains and upper Great Lakes, in association with the southeastward-moving shortwave trough. ...Parts of the upper Ohio Valley into the Northeast... Scattered thunderstorms are forecast to develop Saturday along/ahead of the front across parts of NY/PA into the upper Ohio Valley region. There will be some displacement of stronger flow/shear to the north with stronger instability to the south, but the environment will likely become at least marginally supportive of organized convection across the region during the afternoon. A few stronger cells and/or small clusters may evolve with time and pose a threat of locally damaging wind and perhaps some isolated hail. ...Upper Great Lakes vicinity... Considerable uncertainty remains regarding the extent of destabilization near the strong front that is forecast to move southeastward across the upper Great Lakes region. However, favorable ascent attendant to the shortwave trough may aid in at least isolated convective development along the front during the afternoon/evening. Strengthening low/midlevel flow could support some severe threat with any deeper convection, though this potential remains uncertain and will be dependent on the magnitude of prefrontal destabilization. ..Dean.. 08/29/2024 Read more

SPC 1930Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0230 PM CDT Thu Aug 29 2024 Valid 311200Z - 011200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE NORTHEAST AND UPPER OHIO VALLEY... ...SUMMARY... Isolated severe risk may evolve across portions of the northeast/central Appalachians/Upper Ohio Valley area Saturday. ...Synopsis... A relatively deep upper-level trough is forecast to remain in place from eastern Canada into the Great Lakes and Northeast on Saturday. Within the large-scale trough, a weak shortwave may move through parts of the lower Great Lakes/upper Ohio Valley, while a stronger upstream shortwave will move toward the upper Great Lakes region. A cold front is expected to move eastward across parts of the Northeast and Ohio Valley. A stronger cold front will move through parts of the northern Plains and upper Great Lakes, in association with the southeastward-moving shortwave trough. ...Parts of the upper Ohio Valley into the Northeast... Scattered thunderstorms are forecast to develop Saturday along/ahead of the front across parts of NY/PA into the upper Ohio Valley region. There will be some displacement of stronger flow/shear to the north with stronger instability to the south, but the environment will likely become at least marginally supportive of organized convection across the region during the afternoon. A few stronger cells and/or small clusters may evolve with time and pose a threat of locally damaging wind and perhaps some isolated hail. ...Upper Great Lakes vicinity... Considerable uncertainty remains regarding the extent of destabilization near the strong front that is forecast to move southeastward across the upper Great Lakes region. However, favorable ascent attendant to the shortwave trough may aid in at least isolated convective development along the front during the afternoon/evening. Strengthening low/midlevel flow could support some severe threat with any deeper convection, though this potential remains uncertain and will be dependent on the magnitude of prefrontal destabilization. ..Dean.. 08/29/2024 Read more

SPC 1930Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0230 PM CDT Thu Aug 29 2024 Valid 311200Z - 011200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE NORTHEAST AND UPPER OHIO VALLEY... ...SUMMARY... Isolated severe risk may evolve across portions of the northeast/central Appalachians/Upper Ohio Valley area Saturday. ...Synopsis... A relatively deep upper-level trough is forecast to remain in place from eastern Canada into the Great Lakes and Northeast on Saturday. Within the large-scale trough, a weak shortwave may move through parts of the lower Great Lakes/upper Ohio Valley, while a stronger upstream shortwave will move toward the upper Great Lakes region. A cold front is expected to move eastward across parts of the Northeast and Ohio Valley. A stronger cold front will move through parts of the northern Plains and upper Great Lakes, in association with the southeastward-moving shortwave trough. ...Parts of the upper Ohio Valley into the Northeast... Scattered thunderstorms are forecast to develop Saturday along/ahead of the front across parts of NY/PA into the upper Ohio Valley region. There will be some displacement of stronger flow/shear to the north with stronger instability to the south, but the environment will likely become at least marginally supportive of organized convection across the region during the afternoon. A few stronger cells and/or small clusters may evolve with time and pose a threat of locally damaging wind and perhaps some isolated hail. ...Upper Great Lakes vicinity... Considerable uncertainty remains regarding the extent of destabilization near the strong front that is forecast to move southeastward across the upper Great Lakes region. However, favorable ascent attendant to the shortwave trough may aid in at least isolated convective development along the front during the afternoon/evening. Strengthening low/midlevel flow could support some severe threat with any deeper convection, though this potential remains uncertain and will be dependent on the magnitude of prefrontal destabilization. ..Dean.. 08/29/2024 Read more

SPC 1930Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0230 PM CDT Thu Aug 29 2024 Valid 311200Z - 011200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE NORTHEAST AND UPPER OHIO VALLEY... ...SUMMARY... Isolated severe risk may evolve across portions of the northeast/central Appalachians/Upper Ohio Valley area Saturday. ...Synopsis... A relatively deep upper-level trough is forecast to remain in place from eastern Canada into the Great Lakes and Northeast on Saturday. Within the large-scale trough, a weak shortwave may move through parts of the lower Great Lakes/upper Ohio Valley, while a stronger upstream shortwave will move toward the upper Great Lakes region. A cold front is expected to move eastward across parts of the Northeast and Ohio Valley. A stronger cold front will move through parts of the northern Plains and upper Great Lakes, in association with the southeastward-moving shortwave trough. ...Parts of the upper Ohio Valley into the Northeast... Scattered thunderstorms are forecast to develop Saturday along/ahead of the front across parts of NY/PA into the upper Ohio Valley region. There will be some displacement of stronger flow/shear to the north with stronger instability to the south, but the environment will likely become at least marginally supportive of organized convection across the region during the afternoon. A few stronger cells and/or small clusters may evolve with time and pose a threat of locally damaging wind and perhaps some isolated hail. ...Upper Great Lakes vicinity... Considerable uncertainty remains regarding the extent of destabilization near the strong front that is forecast to move southeastward across the upper Great Lakes region. However, favorable ascent attendant to the shortwave trough may aid in at least isolated convective development along the front during the afternoon/evening. Strengthening low/midlevel flow could support some severe threat with any deeper convection, though this potential remains uncertain and will be dependent on the magnitude of prefrontal destabilization. ..Dean.. 08/29/2024 Read more