Severe Storms

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1229 PM CDT Thu Aug 29 2024 Valid 301200Z - 311200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR EASTERN LOWER MICHIGAN... ...SUMMARY... Scattered strong to severe storms are possible across eastern lower Michigan on Friday, with more isolated strong/severe storms into parts of the Midwest, and also across parts of the Carolinas and Virginia into northeast Georgia. ...Synopsis... The southern portion of an relatively deep upper-level trough will move across the Upper Midwest and Great Lakes region on Friday, with the strongest part of this trough and related mid/upper-level flow expected to remain north of the international border. A cold front trailing from a deep surface low near Hudson Bay will move across parts of the Great Lakes, Midwest, mid/upper MS Valley, and south-central Great Plains. ...Parts of lower MI and OH into IN/IL/MO... Diurnal heating and relatively rich moisture will support moderate to locally strong destabilization along/ahead of the cold front during the afternoon. Scattered thunderstorm development will be possible across a broad region from lower MI and OH into the Midwest and parts of the Plains. Stronger deep-layer flow/shear will be generally displaced to the north of the front, though modest west/southwesterly flow could support isolated strong storms capable of locally damaging gusts and possibly hail. Within the broader region of isolated severe potential, a somewhat more favorable environment will be possible in the vicinity of eastern lower MI, where relatively greater low/midlevel flow (generally 20-30 kt at 850 mb and 30-40 kt at 700 mb) is forecast within the prefrontal environment. A few more-organized clusters or line segments appear possible in this area, with an attendant damaging-wind threat. A 15% wind area has been added where confidence is currently highest in the overlap of greater storm coverage and somewhat stronger flow. ...NC/VA into the southern ... Scattered thunderstorms are expected Friday afternoon across much NC and southern VA into the southern Blue Ridge vicinity, within a moist and unstable environment. Development will tend to be focused near the sea breeze, any remnant outflow boundary from D1/Thursday convection, and across the higher terrain. Deep-layer shear is expected to remain weak, which will tend to limit storm organization. However, the favorable thermodynamic profile will support a threat of locally damaging outflow winds. ..Dean.. 08/29/2024 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1229 PM CDT Thu Aug 29 2024 Valid 301200Z - 311200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR EASTERN LOWER MICHIGAN... ...SUMMARY... Scattered strong to severe storms are possible across eastern lower Michigan on Friday, with more isolated strong/severe storms into parts of the Midwest, and also across parts of the Carolinas and Virginia into northeast Georgia. ...Synopsis... The southern portion of an relatively deep upper-level trough will move across the Upper Midwest and Great Lakes region on Friday, with the strongest part of this trough and related mid/upper-level flow expected to remain north of the international border. A cold front trailing from a deep surface low near Hudson Bay will move across parts of the Great Lakes, Midwest, mid/upper MS Valley, and south-central Great Plains. ...Parts of lower MI and OH into IN/IL/MO... Diurnal heating and relatively rich moisture will support moderate to locally strong destabilization along/ahead of the cold front during the afternoon. Scattered thunderstorm development will be possible across a broad region from lower MI and OH into the Midwest and parts of the Plains. Stronger deep-layer flow/shear will be generally displaced to the north of the front, though modest west/southwesterly flow could support isolated strong storms capable of locally damaging gusts and possibly hail. Within the broader region of isolated severe potential, a somewhat more favorable environment will be possible in the vicinity of eastern lower MI, where relatively greater low/midlevel flow (generally 20-30 kt at 850 mb and 30-40 kt at 700 mb) is forecast within the prefrontal environment. A few more-organized clusters or line segments appear possible in this area, with an attendant damaging-wind threat. A 15% wind area has been added where confidence is currently highest in the overlap of greater storm coverage and somewhat stronger flow. ...NC/VA into the southern ... Scattered thunderstorms are expected Friday afternoon across much NC and southern VA into the southern Blue Ridge vicinity, within a moist and unstable environment. Development will tend to be focused near the sea breeze, any remnant outflow boundary from D1/Thursday convection, and across the higher terrain. Deep-layer shear is expected to remain weak, which will tend to limit storm organization. However, the favorable thermodynamic profile will support a threat of locally damaging outflow winds. ..Dean.. 08/29/2024 Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1151 AM CDT Thu Aug 29 2024 Valid 301200Z - 311200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... The previous forecast (see below) remains on track, and no changes were needed with this update. ..Weinman.. 08/29/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0147 AM CDT Thu Aug 29 2024/ ...Synopsis... An upper-level ridge will remain in place across the West tomorrow (Friday) with the strongest midlevel flow confined along the Canadian border. A cold front will continue sagging southward over the middle of the country with surface high pressure building into the central Plains. While warm and dry conditions over much of the West will promote drying/curing of fuels, the large-scale pattern is not favorable strong surface winds. Some high-based thunderstorms are possible across Arizona during the afternoon hours, but fuels appear to be unreceptive, precluding the need for dry thunderstorm highlights. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1151 AM CDT Thu Aug 29 2024 Valid 301200Z - 311200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... The previous forecast (see below) remains on track, and no changes were needed with this update. ..Weinman.. 08/29/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0147 AM CDT Thu Aug 29 2024/ ...Synopsis... An upper-level ridge will remain in place across the West tomorrow (Friday) with the strongest midlevel flow confined along the Canadian border. A cold front will continue sagging southward over the middle of the country with surface high pressure building into the central Plains. While warm and dry conditions over much of the West will promote drying/curing of fuels, the large-scale pattern is not favorable strong surface winds. Some high-based thunderstorms are possible across Arizona during the afternoon hours, but fuels appear to be unreceptive, precluding the need for dry thunderstorm highlights. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1151 AM CDT Thu Aug 29 2024 Valid 301200Z - 311200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... The previous forecast (see below) remains on track, and no changes were needed with this update. ..Weinman.. 08/29/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0147 AM CDT Thu Aug 29 2024/ ...Synopsis... An upper-level ridge will remain in place across the West tomorrow (Friday) with the strongest midlevel flow confined along the Canadian border. A cold front will continue sagging southward over the middle of the country with surface high pressure building into the central Plains. While warm and dry conditions over much of the West will promote drying/curing of fuels, the large-scale pattern is not favorable strong surface winds. Some high-based thunderstorms are possible across Arizona during the afternoon hours, but fuels appear to be unreceptive, precluding the need for dry thunderstorm highlights. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1151 AM CDT Thu Aug 29 2024 Valid 301200Z - 311200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... The previous forecast (see below) remains on track, and no changes were needed with this update. ..Weinman.. 08/29/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0147 AM CDT Thu Aug 29 2024/ ...Synopsis... An upper-level ridge will remain in place across the West tomorrow (Friday) with the strongest midlevel flow confined along the Canadian border. A cold front will continue sagging southward over the middle of the country with surface high pressure building into the central Plains. While warm and dry conditions over much of the West will promote drying/curing of fuels, the large-scale pattern is not favorable strong surface winds. Some high-based thunderstorms are possible across Arizona during the afternoon hours, but fuels appear to be unreceptive, precluding the need for dry thunderstorm highlights. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1151 AM CDT Thu Aug 29 2024 Valid 301200Z - 311200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... The previous forecast (see below) remains on track, and no changes were needed with this update. ..Weinman.. 08/29/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0147 AM CDT Thu Aug 29 2024/ ...Synopsis... An upper-level ridge will remain in place across the West tomorrow (Friday) with the strongest midlevel flow confined along the Canadian border. A cold front will continue sagging southward over the middle of the country with surface high pressure building into the central Plains. While warm and dry conditions over much of the West will promote drying/curing of fuels, the large-scale pattern is not favorable strong surface winds. Some high-based thunderstorms are possible across Arizona during the afternoon hours, but fuels appear to be unreceptive, precluding the need for dry thunderstorm highlights. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1151 AM CDT Thu Aug 29 2024 Valid 301200Z - 311200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... The previous forecast (see below) remains on track, and no changes were needed with this update. ..Weinman.. 08/29/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0147 AM CDT Thu Aug 29 2024/ ...Synopsis... An upper-level ridge will remain in place across the West tomorrow (Friday) with the strongest midlevel flow confined along the Canadian border. A cold front will continue sagging southward over the middle of the country with surface high pressure building into the central Plains. While warm and dry conditions over much of the West will promote drying/curing of fuels, the large-scale pattern is not favorable strong surface winds. Some high-based thunderstorms are possible across Arizona during the afternoon hours, but fuels appear to be unreceptive, precluding the need for dry thunderstorm highlights. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1151 AM CDT Thu Aug 29 2024 Valid 301200Z - 311200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... The previous forecast (see below) remains on track, and no changes were needed with this update. ..Weinman.. 08/29/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0147 AM CDT Thu Aug 29 2024/ ...Synopsis... An upper-level ridge will remain in place across the West tomorrow (Friday) with the strongest midlevel flow confined along the Canadian border. A cold front will continue sagging southward over the middle of the country with surface high pressure building into the central Plains. While warm and dry conditions over much of the West will promote drying/curing of fuels, the large-scale pattern is not favorable strong surface winds. Some high-based thunderstorms are possible across Arizona during the afternoon hours, but fuels appear to be unreceptive, precluding the need for dry thunderstorm highlights. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1151 AM CDT Thu Aug 29 2024 Valid 301200Z - 311200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... The previous forecast (see below) remains on track, and no changes were needed with this update. ..Weinman.. 08/29/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0147 AM CDT Thu Aug 29 2024/ ...Synopsis... An upper-level ridge will remain in place across the West tomorrow (Friday) with the strongest midlevel flow confined along the Canadian border. A cold front will continue sagging southward over the middle of the country with surface high pressure building into the central Plains. While warm and dry conditions over much of the West will promote drying/curing of fuels, the large-scale pattern is not favorable strong surface winds. Some high-based thunderstorms are possible across Arizona during the afternoon hours, but fuels appear to be unreceptive, precluding the need for dry thunderstorm highlights. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1151 AM CDT Thu Aug 29 2024 Valid 301200Z - 311200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... The previous forecast (see below) remains on track, and no changes were needed with this update. ..Weinman.. 08/29/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0147 AM CDT Thu Aug 29 2024/ ...Synopsis... An upper-level ridge will remain in place across the West tomorrow (Friday) with the strongest midlevel flow confined along the Canadian border. A cold front will continue sagging southward over the middle of the country with surface high pressure building into the central Plains. While warm and dry conditions over much of the West will promote drying/curing of fuels, the large-scale pattern is not favorable strong surface winds. Some high-based thunderstorms are possible across Arizona during the afternoon hours, but fuels appear to be unreceptive, precluding the need for dry thunderstorm highlights. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1151 AM CDT Thu Aug 29 2024 Valid 301200Z - 311200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... The previous forecast (see below) remains on track, and no changes were needed with this update. ..Weinman.. 08/29/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0147 AM CDT Thu Aug 29 2024/ ...Synopsis... An upper-level ridge will remain in place across the West tomorrow (Friday) with the strongest midlevel flow confined along the Canadian border. A cold front will continue sagging southward over the middle of the country with surface high pressure building into the central Plains. While warm and dry conditions over much of the West will promote drying/curing of fuels, the large-scale pattern is not favorable strong surface winds. Some high-based thunderstorms are possible across Arizona during the afternoon hours, but fuels appear to be unreceptive, precluding the need for dry thunderstorm highlights. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1151 AM CDT Thu Aug 29 2024 Valid 301200Z - 311200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... The previous forecast (see below) remains on track, and no changes were needed with this update. ..Weinman.. 08/29/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0147 AM CDT Thu Aug 29 2024/ ...Synopsis... An upper-level ridge will remain in place across the West tomorrow (Friday) with the strongest midlevel flow confined along the Canadian border. A cold front will continue sagging southward over the middle of the country with surface high pressure building into the central Plains. While warm and dry conditions over much of the West will promote drying/curing of fuels, the large-scale pattern is not favorable strong surface winds. Some high-based thunderstorms are possible across Arizona during the afternoon hours, but fuels appear to be unreceptive, precluding the need for dry thunderstorm highlights. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

No Mesoscale Discussions are in effect as of Thu Aug 29 16:54:02 UTC 2024.

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1147 AM CDT Thu Aug 29 2024 Valid 291630Z - 301200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF MINNESOTA AND WESTERN WISCONSIN... ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE MID-ATLANTIC REGION... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are expected this afternoon and evening over portions of the Upper Midwest, with a threat for tornadoes, damaging winds, and sporadic large hail, especially across parts of Minnesota into western Wisconsin. Other severe storms are expected across the central Plains and Mid-Atlantic/Carolinas. ...Upper Midwest/Central Plains... Have upgraded portions of central/eastern Minnesota into western Wisconsin to Enhanced Risk for a perceived greater aggregate severe risk, highlighted by a transition to an increased damaging wind potential by evening. An upper-level trough will continue generally east-northeastward from southern Saskatchewan toward Manitoba and eventually far northwest Ontario late tonight, with southern-peripheral height falls and moderately strong southwesterly winds aloft as far south as the far eastern Dakotas and Minnesota into Wisconsin. Scattered thunderstorm development is expected by mid-afternoon along the front from northern Minnesota south-southwestward into southwest Minnesota and the central Plains including eastern/southern Nebraska into northwest Kansas. The most severe-favorable ingredients are expected across central/southern Minnesota, where 2500-3500 J/kg MLCAPE will coincide with 30-40 kt effective shear. Some initial supercells can be expected with large hail. Tornado potential should be maximized across central Minnesota and possibly far western Wisconsin in vicinity of a weak surface wave/warm front-related triple point, where low-level moisture/SRH will be maximized, somewhat analogous to the South Dakota/North Dakota border vicinity yesterday late afternoon and early evening. Storms should otherwise steadily grow upscale by early evening, with storm mergers leading to quasi-linear segments and possible bows with an increased damaging wind potential across Iowa, and especially eastern Minnesota into western Wisconsin. ...Carolinas/Mid-Atlantic including parts Virginia/Pennsylvania... Scattered multicell thunderstorms are expected to form this afternoon, offering isolated damaging wind gusts and marginally severe hail. This activity will develop in a plume of rich low-level moisture, with lower-elevation surface dewpoints in the upper 60s to low 70s F. That, along with diurnal heating offsetting modest mid-level lapse rates, should support MLCAPE in the 2000-3000 J/kg range. ..Guyer/Jewell.. 08/29/2024 Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1147 AM CDT Thu Aug 29 2024 Valid 291630Z - 301200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF MINNESOTA AND WESTERN WISCONSIN... ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE MID-ATLANTIC REGION... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are expected this afternoon and evening over portions of the Upper Midwest, with a threat for tornadoes, damaging winds, and sporadic large hail, especially across parts of Minnesota into western Wisconsin. Other severe storms are expected across the central Plains and Mid-Atlantic/Carolinas. ...Upper Midwest/Central Plains... Have upgraded portions of central/eastern Minnesota into western Wisconsin to Enhanced Risk for a perceived greater aggregate severe risk, highlighted by a transition to an increased damaging wind potential by evening. An upper-level trough will continue generally east-northeastward from southern Saskatchewan toward Manitoba and eventually far northwest Ontario late tonight, with southern-peripheral height falls and moderately strong southwesterly winds aloft as far south as the far eastern Dakotas and Minnesota into Wisconsin. Scattered thunderstorm development is expected by mid-afternoon along the front from northern Minnesota south-southwestward into southwest Minnesota and the central Plains including eastern/southern Nebraska into northwest Kansas. The most severe-favorable ingredients are expected across central/southern Minnesota, where 2500-3500 J/kg MLCAPE will coincide with 30-40 kt effective shear. Some initial supercells can be expected with large hail. Tornado potential should be maximized across central Minnesota and possibly far western Wisconsin in vicinity of a weak surface wave/warm front-related triple point, where low-level moisture/SRH will be maximized, somewhat analogous to the South Dakota/North Dakota border vicinity yesterday late afternoon and early evening. Storms should otherwise steadily grow upscale by early evening, with storm mergers leading to quasi-linear segments and possible bows with an increased damaging wind potential across Iowa, and especially eastern Minnesota into western Wisconsin. ...Carolinas/Mid-Atlantic including parts Virginia/Pennsylvania... Scattered multicell thunderstorms are expected to form this afternoon, offering isolated damaging wind gusts and marginally severe hail. This activity will develop in a plume of rich low-level moisture, with lower-elevation surface dewpoints in the upper 60s to low 70s F. That, along with diurnal heating offsetting modest mid-level lapse rates, should support MLCAPE in the 2000-3000 J/kg range. ..Guyer/Jewell.. 08/29/2024 Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1147 AM CDT Thu Aug 29 2024 Valid 291630Z - 301200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF MINNESOTA AND WESTERN WISCONSIN... ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE MID-ATLANTIC REGION... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are expected this afternoon and evening over portions of the Upper Midwest, with a threat for tornadoes, damaging winds, and sporadic large hail, especially across parts of Minnesota into western Wisconsin. Other severe storms are expected across the central Plains and Mid-Atlantic/Carolinas. ...Upper Midwest/Central Plains... Have upgraded portions of central/eastern Minnesota into western Wisconsin to Enhanced Risk for a perceived greater aggregate severe risk, highlighted by a transition to an increased damaging wind potential by evening. An upper-level trough will continue generally east-northeastward from southern Saskatchewan toward Manitoba and eventually far northwest Ontario late tonight, with southern-peripheral height falls and moderately strong southwesterly winds aloft as far south as the far eastern Dakotas and Minnesota into Wisconsin. Scattered thunderstorm development is expected by mid-afternoon along the front from northern Minnesota south-southwestward into southwest Minnesota and the central Plains including eastern/southern Nebraska into northwest Kansas. The most severe-favorable ingredients are expected across central/southern Minnesota, where 2500-3500 J/kg MLCAPE will coincide with 30-40 kt effective shear. Some initial supercells can be expected with large hail. Tornado potential should be maximized across central Minnesota and possibly far western Wisconsin in vicinity of a weak surface wave/warm front-related triple point, where low-level moisture/SRH will be maximized, somewhat analogous to the South Dakota/North Dakota border vicinity yesterday late afternoon and early evening. Storms should otherwise steadily grow upscale by early evening, with storm mergers leading to quasi-linear segments and possible bows with an increased damaging wind potential across Iowa, and especially eastern Minnesota into western Wisconsin. ...Carolinas/Mid-Atlantic including parts Virginia/Pennsylvania... Scattered multicell thunderstorms are expected to form this afternoon, offering isolated damaging wind gusts and marginally severe hail. This activity will develop in a plume of rich low-level moisture, with lower-elevation surface dewpoints in the upper 60s to low 70s F. That, along with diurnal heating offsetting modest mid-level lapse rates, should support MLCAPE in the 2000-3000 J/kg range. ..Guyer/Jewell.. 08/29/2024 Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1147 AM CDT Thu Aug 29 2024 Valid 291630Z - 301200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF MINNESOTA AND WESTERN WISCONSIN... ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE MID-ATLANTIC REGION... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are expected this afternoon and evening over portions of the Upper Midwest, with a threat for tornadoes, damaging winds, and sporadic large hail, especially across parts of Minnesota into western Wisconsin. Other severe storms are expected across the central Plains and Mid-Atlantic/Carolinas. ...Upper Midwest/Central Plains... Have upgraded portions of central/eastern Minnesota into western Wisconsin to Enhanced Risk for a perceived greater aggregate severe risk, highlighted by a transition to an increased damaging wind potential by evening. An upper-level trough will continue generally east-northeastward from southern Saskatchewan toward Manitoba and eventually far northwest Ontario late tonight, with southern-peripheral height falls and moderately strong southwesterly winds aloft as far south as the far eastern Dakotas and Minnesota into Wisconsin. Scattered thunderstorm development is expected by mid-afternoon along the front from northern Minnesota south-southwestward into southwest Minnesota and the central Plains including eastern/southern Nebraska into northwest Kansas. The most severe-favorable ingredients are expected across central/southern Minnesota, where 2500-3500 J/kg MLCAPE will coincide with 30-40 kt effective shear. Some initial supercells can be expected with large hail. Tornado potential should be maximized across central Minnesota and possibly far western Wisconsin in vicinity of a weak surface wave/warm front-related triple point, where low-level moisture/SRH will be maximized, somewhat analogous to the South Dakota/North Dakota border vicinity yesterday late afternoon and early evening. Storms should otherwise steadily grow upscale by early evening, with storm mergers leading to quasi-linear segments and possible bows with an increased damaging wind potential across Iowa, and especially eastern Minnesota into western Wisconsin. ...Carolinas/Mid-Atlantic including parts Virginia/Pennsylvania... Scattered multicell thunderstorms are expected to form this afternoon, offering isolated damaging wind gusts and marginally severe hail. This activity will develop in a plume of rich low-level moisture, with lower-elevation surface dewpoints in the upper 60s to low 70s F. That, along with diurnal heating offsetting modest mid-level lapse rates, should support MLCAPE in the 2000-3000 J/kg range. ..Guyer/Jewell.. 08/29/2024 Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1147 AM CDT Thu Aug 29 2024 Valid 291630Z - 301200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF MINNESOTA AND WESTERN WISCONSIN... ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE MID-ATLANTIC REGION... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are expected this afternoon and evening over portions of the Upper Midwest, with a threat for tornadoes, damaging winds, and sporadic large hail, especially across parts of Minnesota into western Wisconsin. Other severe storms are expected across the central Plains and Mid-Atlantic/Carolinas. ...Upper Midwest/Central Plains... Have upgraded portions of central/eastern Minnesota into western Wisconsin to Enhanced Risk for a perceived greater aggregate severe risk, highlighted by a transition to an increased damaging wind potential by evening. An upper-level trough will continue generally east-northeastward from southern Saskatchewan toward Manitoba and eventually far northwest Ontario late tonight, with southern-peripheral height falls and moderately strong southwesterly winds aloft as far south as the far eastern Dakotas and Minnesota into Wisconsin. Scattered thunderstorm development is expected by mid-afternoon along the front from northern Minnesota south-southwestward into southwest Minnesota and the central Plains including eastern/southern Nebraska into northwest Kansas. The most severe-favorable ingredients are expected across central/southern Minnesota, where 2500-3500 J/kg MLCAPE will coincide with 30-40 kt effective shear. Some initial supercells can be expected with large hail. Tornado potential should be maximized across central Minnesota and possibly far western Wisconsin in vicinity of a weak surface wave/warm front-related triple point, where low-level moisture/SRH will be maximized, somewhat analogous to the South Dakota/North Dakota border vicinity yesterday late afternoon and early evening. Storms should otherwise steadily grow upscale by early evening, with storm mergers leading to quasi-linear segments and possible bows with an increased damaging wind potential across Iowa, and especially eastern Minnesota into western Wisconsin. ...Carolinas/Mid-Atlantic including parts Virginia/Pennsylvania... Scattered multicell thunderstorms are expected to form this afternoon, offering isolated damaging wind gusts and marginally severe hail. This activity will develop in a plume of rich low-level moisture, with lower-elevation surface dewpoints in the upper 60s to low 70s F. That, along with diurnal heating offsetting modest mid-level lapse rates, should support MLCAPE in the 2000-3000 J/kg range. ..Guyer/Jewell.. 08/29/2024 Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1147 AM CDT Thu Aug 29 2024 Valid 291630Z - 301200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF MINNESOTA AND WESTERN WISCONSIN... ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE MID-ATLANTIC REGION... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are expected this afternoon and evening over portions of the Upper Midwest, with a threat for tornadoes, damaging winds, and sporadic large hail, especially across parts of Minnesota into western Wisconsin. Other severe storms are expected across the central Plains and Mid-Atlantic/Carolinas. ...Upper Midwest/Central Plains... Have upgraded portions of central/eastern Minnesota into western Wisconsin to Enhanced Risk for a perceived greater aggregate severe risk, highlighted by a transition to an increased damaging wind potential by evening. An upper-level trough will continue generally east-northeastward from southern Saskatchewan toward Manitoba and eventually far northwest Ontario late tonight, with southern-peripheral height falls and moderately strong southwesterly winds aloft as far south as the far eastern Dakotas and Minnesota into Wisconsin. Scattered thunderstorm development is expected by mid-afternoon along the front from northern Minnesota south-southwestward into southwest Minnesota and the central Plains including eastern/southern Nebraska into northwest Kansas. The most severe-favorable ingredients are expected across central/southern Minnesota, where 2500-3500 J/kg MLCAPE will coincide with 30-40 kt effective shear. Some initial supercells can be expected with large hail. Tornado potential should be maximized across central Minnesota and possibly far western Wisconsin in vicinity of a weak surface wave/warm front-related triple point, where low-level moisture/SRH will be maximized, somewhat analogous to the South Dakota/North Dakota border vicinity yesterday late afternoon and early evening. Storms should otherwise steadily grow upscale by early evening, with storm mergers leading to quasi-linear segments and possible bows with an increased damaging wind potential across Iowa, and especially eastern Minnesota into western Wisconsin. ...Carolinas/Mid-Atlantic including parts Virginia/Pennsylvania... Scattered multicell thunderstorms are expected to form this afternoon, offering isolated damaging wind gusts and marginally severe hail. This activity will develop in a plume of rich low-level moisture, with lower-elevation surface dewpoints in the upper 60s to low 70s F. That, along with diurnal heating offsetting modest mid-level lapse rates, should support MLCAPE in the 2000-3000 J/kg range. ..Guyer/Jewell.. 08/29/2024 Read more