Severe Storms

Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0400 AM CDT Thu Aug 29 2024 Valid 011200Z - 061200Z ...DISCUSSION... Medium-range/global models are in reasonably good agreement with respect to synoptic-scale features across the U.S. through about Day 6/Tuesday. Late in the period, models begin deviating with respect to their handling of an upper low, which through the first half of the period is progged to be moving in a slow, anticyclonic arc around northern fringes of a western and central U.S. ridge. As this feature crests the ridge, moving across the northern Intermountain region Day 7/Wednesday, model solutions begin to diverge with respect to progression of the system, with divergence continuing through Day8. Therefore, while some severe risk may accompany the advance of this feature toward/into the north-central U.S. late in the period, uncertainty precludes any further assessment of this potential. Meanwhile early in the period, an upper trough will shift across the northeastern quarter of the country Day 4/Sunday. An associated cold front is progged to advance across the Northeast/Mid-Atlantic region, but with preceding low-level moisture likely already swept off the New England Coast by a prior frontal passage. As such, it appears that only a limited potential for stronger storms will exist along trailing portions of the front farther south (from the Mid-Atlantic vicinity westward into the Tennessee Valley area) with stronger flow aloft remaining farther to the north. Days 5-6 and beyond, the front will continue sagging southward across the Southeast and Gulf Coast States, as a Canadian surface high settles southeastward into the Plains/Great Lakes/Midwest. While convection can be expected near and south of this boundary, stronger flow aloft will remain well north of this region, thus precluding organized severe potential. Read more

Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0400 AM CDT Thu Aug 29 2024 Valid 011200Z - 061200Z ...DISCUSSION... Medium-range/global models are in reasonably good agreement with respect to synoptic-scale features across the U.S. through about Day 6/Tuesday. Late in the period, models begin deviating with respect to their handling of an upper low, which through the first half of the period is progged to be moving in a slow, anticyclonic arc around northern fringes of a western and central U.S. ridge. As this feature crests the ridge, moving across the northern Intermountain region Day 7/Wednesday, model solutions begin to diverge with respect to progression of the system, with divergence continuing through Day8. Therefore, while some severe risk may accompany the advance of this feature toward/into the north-central U.S. late in the period, uncertainty precludes any further assessment of this potential. Meanwhile early in the period, an upper trough will shift across the northeastern quarter of the country Day 4/Sunday. An associated cold front is progged to advance across the Northeast/Mid-Atlantic region, but with preceding low-level moisture likely already swept off the New England Coast by a prior frontal passage. As such, it appears that only a limited potential for stronger storms will exist along trailing portions of the front farther south (from the Mid-Atlantic vicinity westward into the Tennessee Valley area) with stronger flow aloft remaining farther to the north. Days 5-6 and beyond, the front will continue sagging southward across the Southeast and Gulf Coast States, as a Canadian surface high settles southeastward into the Plains/Great Lakes/Midwest. While convection can be expected near and south of this boundary, stronger flow aloft will remain well north of this region, thus precluding organized severe potential. Read more

Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0400 AM CDT Thu Aug 29 2024 Valid 011200Z - 061200Z ...DISCUSSION... Medium-range/global models are in reasonably good agreement with respect to synoptic-scale features across the U.S. through about Day 6/Tuesday. Late in the period, models begin deviating with respect to their handling of an upper low, which through the first half of the period is progged to be moving in a slow, anticyclonic arc around northern fringes of a western and central U.S. ridge. As this feature crests the ridge, moving across the northern Intermountain region Day 7/Wednesday, model solutions begin to diverge with respect to progression of the system, with divergence continuing through Day8. Therefore, while some severe risk may accompany the advance of this feature toward/into the north-central U.S. late in the period, uncertainty precludes any further assessment of this potential. Meanwhile early in the period, an upper trough will shift across the northeastern quarter of the country Day 4/Sunday. An associated cold front is progged to advance across the Northeast/Mid-Atlantic region, but with preceding low-level moisture likely already swept off the New England Coast by a prior frontal passage. As such, it appears that only a limited potential for stronger storms will exist along trailing portions of the front farther south (from the Mid-Atlantic vicinity westward into the Tennessee Valley area) with stronger flow aloft remaining farther to the north. Days 5-6 and beyond, the front will continue sagging southward across the Southeast and Gulf Coast States, as a Canadian surface high settles southeastward into the Plains/Great Lakes/Midwest. While convection can be expected near and south of this boundary, stronger flow aloft will remain well north of this region, thus precluding organized severe potential. Read more

SPC 0730Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0228 AM CDT Thu Aug 29 2024 Valid 311200Z - 011200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE NORTHEAST AND UPPER OHIO VALLEY... ...SUMMARY... Local/limited severe risk may evolve across portions of the northeast/central Appalachians/Upper Ohio Valley area Saturday. ...Synopsis... As an upper trough shifts slowly eastward across eastern Canada and the Great Lakes region, an embedded/short-wave trough within the broader cyclonic flow field is progged to shift quickly southeastward out of central Canada and into the Upper Great Lakes region. At the surface, a weakening cold front, initially stretching from the Lower Great Lakes area across the Midwest, will make gradual southeastward progress across the Appalachians. Meanwhile, a stronger/reinforcing front -- associated with the aforementioned short-wave trough -- is forecast to shift southeastward out of Canada across the north-central U.S. during the first half of the period. Overnight, the front is progged to continue a rapid advance eastward across the Upper Great Lakes, and southward into the central Plains. ...Parts of the Upper Ohio Valley and Northeast... As the initial/weakening cold front crosses the Lower Great Lakes/Appalachians and Ohio Valley region, showers and thunderstorms are expected to increase through the afternoon in the vicinity of the frontal zone. Stronger flow aloft will remain limited to areas from Pennsylvania northward -- where instability should remain weak. Meanwhile, though more substantial instability is expected across areas farther south/southwest, weaker shear should limit convective intensity. As a result, the overall severe risk appears likely to remain marginal/isolated as a result, and therefore will introduce only 5% probability/MRGL risk -- from the New York/Pennsylvania vicinity to Ohio/West Virginia/northern and western Virginia -- at this time. Marginal hail and locally strong wind gusts will be possible, mainly during the afternoon and early evening hours. ..Goss.. 08/29/2024 Read more

SPC 0730Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0228 AM CDT Thu Aug 29 2024 Valid 311200Z - 011200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE NORTHEAST AND UPPER OHIO VALLEY... ...SUMMARY... Local/limited severe risk may evolve across portions of the northeast/central Appalachians/Upper Ohio Valley area Saturday. ...Synopsis... As an upper trough shifts slowly eastward across eastern Canada and the Great Lakes region, an embedded/short-wave trough within the broader cyclonic flow field is progged to shift quickly southeastward out of central Canada and into the Upper Great Lakes region. At the surface, a weakening cold front, initially stretching from the Lower Great Lakes area across the Midwest, will make gradual southeastward progress across the Appalachians. Meanwhile, a stronger/reinforcing front -- associated with the aforementioned short-wave trough -- is forecast to shift southeastward out of Canada across the north-central U.S. during the first half of the period. Overnight, the front is progged to continue a rapid advance eastward across the Upper Great Lakes, and southward into the central Plains. ...Parts of the Upper Ohio Valley and Northeast... As the initial/weakening cold front crosses the Lower Great Lakes/Appalachians and Ohio Valley region, showers and thunderstorms are expected to increase through the afternoon in the vicinity of the frontal zone. Stronger flow aloft will remain limited to areas from Pennsylvania northward -- where instability should remain weak. Meanwhile, though more substantial instability is expected across areas farther south/southwest, weaker shear should limit convective intensity. As a result, the overall severe risk appears likely to remain marginal/isolated as a result, and therefore will introduce only 5% probability/MRGL risk -- from the New York/Pennsylvania vicinity to Ohio/West Virginia/northern and western Virginia -- at this time. Marginal hail and locally strong wind gusts will be possible, mainly during the afternoon and early evening hours. ..Goss.. 08/29/2024 Read more

SPC 0730Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0228 AM CDT Thu Aug 29 2024 Valid 311200Z - 011200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE NORTHEAST AND UPPER OHIO VALLEY... ...SUMMARY... Local/limited severe risk may evolve across portions of the northeast/central Appalachians/Upper Ohio Valley area Saturday. ...Synopsis... As an upper trough shifts slowly eastward across eastern Canada and the Great Lakes region, an embedded/short-wave trough within the broader cyclonic flow field is progged to shift quickly southeastward out of central Canada and into the Upper Great Lakes region. At the surface, a weakening cold front, initially stretching from the Lower Great Lakes area across the Midwest, will make gradual southeastward progress across the Appalachians. Meanwhile, a stronger/reinforcing front -- associated with the aforementioned short-wave trough -- is forecast to shift southeastward out of Canada across the north-central U.S. during the first half of the period. Overnight, the front is progged to continue a rapid advance eastward across the Upper Great Lakes, and southward into the central Plains. ...Parts of the Upper Ohio Valley and Northeast... As the initial/weakening cold front crosses the Lower Great Lakes/Appalachians and Ohio Valley region, showers and thunderstorms are expected to increase through the afternoon in the vicinity of the frontal zone. Stronger flow aloft will remain limited to areas from Pennsylvania northward -- where instability should remain weak. Meanwhile, though more substantial instability is expected across areas farther south/southwest, weaker shear should limit convective intensity. As a result, the overall severe risk appears likely to remain marginal/isolated as a result, and therefore will introduce only 5% probability/MRGL risk -- from the New York/Pennsylvania vicinity to Ohio/West Virginia/northern and western Virginia -- at this time. Marginal hail and locally strong wind gusts will be possible, mainly during the afternoon and early evening hours. ..Goss.. 08/29/2024 Read more

SPC 0730Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0228 AM CDT Thu Aug 29 2024 Valid 311200Z - 011200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE NORTHEAST AND UPPER OHIO VALLEY... ...SUMMARY... Local/limited severe risk may evolve across portions of the northeast/central Appalachians/Upper Ohio Valley area Saturday. ...Synopsis... As an upper trough shifts slowly eastward across eastern Canada and the Great Lakes region, an embedded/short-wave trough within the broader cyclonic flow field is progged to shift quickly southeastward out of central Canada and into the Upper Great Lakes region. At the surface, a weakening cold front, initially stretching from the Lower Great Lakes area across the Midwest, will make gradual southeastward progress across the Appalachians. Meanwhile, a stronger/reinforcing front -- associated with the aforementioned short-wave trough -- is forecast to shift southeastward out of Canada across the north-central U.S. during the first half of the period. Overnight, the front is progged to continue a rapid advance eastward across the Upper Great Lakes, and southward into the central Plains. ...Parts of the Upper Ohio Valley and Northeast... As the initial/weakening cold front crosses the Lower Great Lakes/Appalachians and Ohio Valley region, showers and thunderstorms are expected to increase through the afternoon in the vicinity of the frontal zone. Stronger flow aloft will remain limited to areas from Pennsylvania northward -- where instability should remain weak. Meanwhile, though more substantial instability is expected across areas farther south/southwest, weaker shear should limit convective intensity. As a result, the overall severe risk appears likely to remain marginal/isolated as a result, and therefore will introduce only 5% probability/MRGL risk -- from the New York/Pennsylvania vicinity to Ohio/West Virginia/northern and western Virginia -- at this time. Marginal hail and locally strong wind gusts will be possible, mainly during the afternoon and early evening hours. ..Goss.. 08/29/2024 Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0147 AM CDT Thu Aug 29 2024 Valid 301200Z - 311200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... ...Synopsis... An upper-level ridge will remain in place across the West tomorrow (Friday) with the strongest midlevel flow confined along the Canadian border. A cold front will continue sagging southward over the middle of the country with surface high pressure building into the central Plains. While warm and dry conditions over much of the West will promote drying/curing of fuels, the large-scale pattern is not favorable strong surface winds. Some high-based thunderstorms are possible across Arizona during the afternoon hours, but fuels appear to be unreceptive, precluding the need for dry thunderstorm highlights. ..Jirak.. 08/29/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0147 AM CDT Thu Aug 29 2024 Valid 301200Z - 311200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... ...Synopsis... An upper-level ridge will remain in place across the West tomorrow (Friday) with the strongest midlevel flow confined along the Canadian border. A cold front will continue sagging southward over the middle of the country with surface high pressure building into the central Plains. While warm and dry conditions over much of the West will promote drying/curing of fuels, the large-scale pattern is not favorable strong surface winds. Some high-based thunderstorms are possible across Arizona during the afternoon hours, but fuels appear to be unreceptive, precluding the need for dry thunderstorm highlights. ..Jirak.. 08/29/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0147 AM CDT Thu Aug 29 2024 Valid 301200Z - 311200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... ...Synopsis... An upper-level ridge will remain in place across the West tomorrow (Friday) with the strongest midlevel flow confined along the Canadian border. A cold front will continue sagging southward over the middle of the country with surface high pressure building into the central Plains. While warm and dry conditions over much of the West will promote drying/curing of fuels, the large-scale pattern is not favorable strong surface winds. Some high-based thunderstorms are possible across Arizona during the afternoon hours, but fuels appear to be unreceptive, precluding the need for dry thunderstorm highlights. ..Jirak.. 08/29/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0147 AM CDT Thu Aug 29 2024 Valid 301200Z - 311200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... ...Synopsis... An upper-level ridge will remain in place across the West tomorrow (Friday) with the strongest midlevel flow confined along the Canadian border. A cold front will continue sagging southward over the middle of the country with surface high pressure building into the central Plains. While warm and dry conditions over much of the West will promote drying/curing of fuels, the large-scale pattern is not favorable strong surface winds. Some high-based thunderstorms are possible across Arizona during the afternoon hours, but fuels appear to be unreceptive, precluding the need for dry thunderstorm highlights. ..Jirak.. 08/29/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0147 AM CDT Thu Aug 29 2024 Valid 301200Z - 311200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... ...Synopsis... An upper-level ridge will remain in place across the West tomorrow (Friday) with the strongest midlevel flow confined along the Canadian border. A cold front will continue sagging southward over the middle of the country with surface high pressure building into the central Plains. While warm and dry conditions over much of the West will promote drying/curing of fuels, the large-scale pattern is not favorable strong surface winds. Some high-based thunderstorms are possible across Arizona during the afternoon hours, but fuels appear to be unreceptive, precluding the need for dry thunderstorm highlights. ..Jirak.. 08/29/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

MD 2027 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY FOR CENTRAL AND EASTERN NORTH DAKOTA
Mesoscale Discussion 2027 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1247 AM CDT Thu Aug 29 2024 Areas affected...central and eastern North Dakota Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely Valid 290547Z - 290715Z Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent SUMMARY...A few supercells across central North Dakota are expected to persist into eastern North Dakota early this morning with a threat or isolated large hail and severe wind gusts. DISCUSSION...Regional radar composite shows a decaying MCS across southeast North Dakota as this cluster moves east of the better instability. Across western and central North Dakota, a significant increase in convection has occurred during the last hour within the post-frontal airmass due to a combination of strengthening isentropic ascent and DCVA ahead of the approaching mid-level trough. Between this post-frontal convection and the decaying MCS a locally favorable environment exists. MUCAPE around 2000 to 3000 J/kg on the apex of a strengthening low-level jet and strong shear (50-60 knots per BIS VWP) will support strong to severe supercells. While this environment will be quite favorable for the next 1 to 2 hours, expect storms to quickly outpace this better environment and thus weaken across eastern/northeast North Dakota. Due to the limited temporal nature of the threat, no severe thunderstorm watch is justified. ..Bentley/Edwards.. 08/29/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...FGF...BIS... LAT...LON 46279930 46950013 47950026 48579988 48869896 48729772 47839716 46819762 46319806 46279930 Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0145 AM CDT Thu Aug 29 2024 Valid 291200Z - 301200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... ...Synopsis... An upper-level low will move eastward across southern Canada today while an upper-level ridge builds over the western CONUS. At the surface, a cold front will move southeastward across the northern and central Plains as high pressure settles over the northern Intermountain West. While afternoon RH values below 20% will be widespread across the West, the pattern is not favorable for strong sustained surface wind speeds, limiting the overall fire weather threat today. ..Jirak.. 08/29/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0145 AM CDT Thu Aug 29 2024 Valid 291200Z - 301200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... ...Synopsis... An upper-level low will move eastward across southern Canada today while an upper-level ridge builds over the western CONUS. At the surface, a cold front will move southeastward across the northern and central Plains as high pressure settles over the northern Intermountain West. While afternoon RH values below 20% will be widespread across the West, the pattern is not favorable for strong sustained surface wind speeds, limiting the overall fire weather threat today. ..Jirak.. 08/29/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0145 AM CDT Thu Aug 29 2024 Valid 291200Z - 301200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... ...Synopsis... An upper-level low will move eastward across southern Canada today while an upper-level ridge builds over the western CONUS. At the surface, a cold front will move southeastward across the northern and central Plains as high pressure settles over the northern Intermountain West. While afternoon RH values below 20% will be widespread across the West, the pattern is not favorable for strong sustained surface wind speeds, limiting the overall fire weather threat today. ..Jirak.. 08/29/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0145 AM CDT Thu Aug 29 2024 Valid 291200Z - 301200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... ...Synopsis... An upper-level low will move eastward across southern Canada today while an upper-level ridge builds over the western CONUS. At the surface, a cold front will move southeastward across the northern and central Plains as high pressure settles over the northern Intermountain West. While afternoon RH values below 20% will be widespread across the West, the pattern is not favorable for strong sustained surface wind speeds, limiting the overall fire weather threat today. ..Jirak.. 08/29/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0145 AM CDT Thu Aug 29 2024 Valid 291200Z - 301200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... ...Synopsis... An upper-level low will move eastward across southern Canada today while an upper-level ridge builds over the western CONUS. At the surface, a cold front will move southeastward across the northern and central Plains as high pressure settles over the northern Intermountain West. While afternoon RH values below 20% will be widespread across the West, the pattern is not favorable for strong sustained surface wind speeds, limiting the overall fire weather threat today. ..Jirak.. 08/29/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC 0600Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1252 AM CDT Thu Aug 29 2024 Valid 301200Z - 311200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE LAKE HURON AND ERIE VICINITY WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD ACROSS THE MIDWEST... ...SUMMARY... Strong/locally severe storms will be possible from Lakes Huron and Erie southwestward into the Midwest Friday. ...Synopsis... An upper-level trough will continue moving slowly eastward out of the north-central U.S. across the Great Lakes and Midwest on Friday, with the more vigorous portion of the trough expected to eject northeastward across western Ontario into the Hudson Bay region. At the surface, a cold front is forecast to continue eastward across the Great Lakes, southeastward across the Midwest, and slowly southward across the southern Plains. By the end of the period, the front should extend from the Lower Great Lakes west-southwestward across the Ohio Valley, and into Oklahoma and northern Texas. ...Lower Michigan/northern Ohio/northwestern Pennsylvania across the Midwest... Moderate destabilization is expected in tandem with afternoon heating ahead of the cold front, from Lower Michigan west-southwestward across northern Illinois and Missouri, and southward across the warm sector. As the front slowly advances, scattered thunderstorm development is expected, initially across the lower Michigan and potentially into parts of Ohio, and then expanding southwestward across Indiana, Illinois, and into Missouri. Although the stronger deep-layer shear will largely remain to the cool side of the front, modest westerly mid-level flow of 20-25 kts will favor loosely organized storms, with some potential for upscale growth/clustering. Strong/isolated damaging gusts and perhaps severe hail will be possible. While risk should diminish after dark, convection -- and very limited risk with a couple of stronger storms -- may continue well into the overnight hours. ..Goss.. 08/29/2024 Read more

SPC 0600Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1252 AM CDT Thu Aug 29 2024 Valid 301200Z - 311200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE LAKE HURON AND ERIE VICINITY WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD ACROSS THE MIDWEST... ...SUMMARY... Strong/locally severe storms will be possible from Lakes Huron and Erie southwestward into the Midwest Friday. ...Synopsis... An upper-level trough will continue moving slowly eastward out of the north-central U.S. across the Great Lakes and Midwest on Friday, with the more vigorous portion of the trough expected to eject northeastward across western Ontario into the Hudson Bay region. At the surface, a cold front is forecast to continue eastward across the Great Lakes, southeastward across the Midwest, and slowly southward across the southern Plains. By the end of the period, the front should extend from the Lower Great Lakes west-southwestward across the Ohio Valley, and into Oklahoma and northern Texas. ...Lower Michigan/northern Ohio/northwestern Pennsylvania across the Midwest... Moderate destabilization is expected in tandem with afternoon heating ahead of the cold front, from Lower Michigan west-southwestward across northern Illinois and Missouri, and southward across the warm sector. As the front slowly advances, scattered thunderstorm development is expected, initially across the lower Michigan and potentially into parts of Ohio, and then expanding southwestward across Indiana, Illinois, and into Missouri. Although the stronger deep-layer shear will largely remain to the cool side of the front, modest westerly mid-level flow of 20-25 kts will favor loosely organized storms, with some potential for upscale growth/clustering. Strong/isolated damaging gusts and perhaps severe hail will be possible. While risk should diminish after dark, convection -- and very limited risk with a couple of stronger storms -- may continue well into the overnight hours. ..Goss.. 08/29/2024 Read more