Severe Storms

SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0744 PM CDT Wed Aug 28 2024 Valid 290100Z - 291200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE DAKOTAS... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorm threat continues across parts of the Dakotas this evening. ...01z Update... Strong mid-level short-wave trough is well evident in satellite imagery, extending from the AB/SK border, south into eastern ID. This feature will shift into eastern MT/WY by the end of the period as a 70kt+ 500mb speed max translates across western ND into southwest MB. Scattered supercells have developed ahead of this short wave from near Minot ND to just north of Mobridge SD. Latest model guidance suggests a weak surface low, or at least a wave, will track northeast along the surface front into southeast ND by 29/12z. Over the next few hours, LLJ will increase across the eastern Dakotas and this should encourage eastward propagation of convection within a concentrated zone of low-level warm advection. Latest diagnostic data suggests ongoing storms are rooted within the main corridor of instability, and peak updraft intensity may linger through 03-04z before a more hostile environment is encountered downstream. Very large hail may be noted for the next hour or two, along with some risk for a tornado, then hail/wind threat will linger into the late-evening hours. ..Darrow.. 08/29/2024 Read more

SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0744 PM CDT Wed Aug 28 2024 Valid 290100Z - 291200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE DAKOTAS... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorm threat continues across parts of the Dakotas this evening. ...01z Update... Strong mid-level short-wave trough is well evident in satellite imagery, extending from the AB/SK border, south into eastern ID. This feature will shift into eastern MT/WY by the end of the period as a 70kt+ 500mb speed max translates across western ND into southwest MB. Scattered supercells have developed ahead of this short wave from near Minot ND to just north of Mobridge SD. Latest model guidance suggests a weak surface low, or at least a wave, will track northeast along the surface front into southeast ND by 29/12z. Over the next few hours, LLJ will increase across the eastern Dakotas and this should encourage eastward propagation of convection within a concentrated zone of low-level warm advection. Latest diagnostic data suggests ongoing storms are rooted within the main corridor of instability, and peak updraft intensity may linger through 03-04z before a more hostile environment is encountered downstream. Very large hail may be noted for the next hour or two, along with some risk for a tornado, then hail/wind threat will linger into the late-evening hours. ..Darrow.. 08/29/2024 Read more

SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0744 PM CDT Wed Aug 28 2024 Valid 290100Z - 291200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE DAKOTAS... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorm threat continues across parts of the Dakotas this evening. ...01z Update... Strong mid-level short-wave trough is well evident in satellite imagery, extending from the AB/SK border, south into eastern ID. This feature will shift into eastern MT/WY by the end of the period as a 70kt+ 500mb speed max translates across western ND into southwest MB. Scattered supercells have developed ahead of this short wave from near Minot ND to just north of Mobridge SD. Latest model guidance suggests a weak surface low, or at least a wave, will track northeast along the surface front into southeast ND by 29/12z. Over the next few hours, LLJ will increase across the eastern Dakotas and this should encourage eastward propagation of convection within a concentrated zone of low-level warm advection. Latest diagnostic data suggests ongoing storms are rooted within the main corridor of instability, and peak updraft intensity may linger through 03-04z before a more hostile environment is encountered downstream. Very large hail may be noted for the next hour or two, along with some risk for a tornado, then hail/wind threat will linger into the late-evening hours. ..Darrow.. 08/29/2024 Read more

WW 0661 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 661 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 55 NW PIR TO 10 NNW MBG TO 40 ENE N60. ..KERR..08/29/24 ATTN...WFO...BIS...ABR... STATUS REPORT FOR WT 661 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS NDC015-029-043-047-051-059-083-103-290140- ND . NORTH DAKOTA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE BURLEIGH EMMONS KIDDER LOGAN MCINTOSH MORTON SHERIDAN WELLS SDC021-031-041-045-049-059-065-069-089-107-117-119-129-290140- SD . SOUTH DAKOTA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE CAMPBELL CORSON DEWEY EDMUNDS FAULK HAND HUGHES HYDE MCPHERSON POTTER STANLEY SULLY WALWORTH THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES Read more

No Mesoscale Discussions are in effect as of Wed Aug 28 23:16:17 UTC 2024.

MD 2024 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH LIKELY FOR NORTH-CENTRAL SOUTH DAKOTA INTO NORTH DAKOTA
Mesoscale Discussion 2024 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0351 PM CDT Wed Aug 28 2024 Areas affected...north-central South Dakota into North Dakota Concerning...Severe potential...Watch likely Valid 282051Z - 282315Z Probability of Watch Issuance...95 percent SUMMARY...Scattered severe storms are likely to develop over the next couple hours, with very large hail, damaging gusts, and a tornado or two expected. DISCUSSION...Surface analysis shows a low over west-central SD, with a pre-frontal trough extending northward into western ND. A cold front continues to surge eastward across the western Dakotas, enhancing low-level convergence. Meanwhile, a warm front currently extends from near Bismarck into northeast SD, with upper 60s to near 70 F dewpoints nearby. The combination of daytime heating and the moist air mass had led to a pocket of strong destabilization with several thousand MUCAPE despite mediocre midlevel lapse rates. Visible imagery show rapidly develop cumulus fields in the warmer air near the surface low, and farther north into central ND where convergence is maximized along the boundaries. Given the continued heating and convergence, storms are expected to form within the next couple hours. Veering winds with height along with the approaching upper trough will favor slow-moving supercells at first, producing very large hail and perhaps a tornado or two. With time, a linear storm mode is likely with damaging winds. ..Jewell/Guyer.. 08/28/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...ABR...BIS...UNR... LAT...LON 43870145 44490137 45210132 45990140 46470156 46870179 47250198 47610172 47670083 47390020 46849972 46349940 45599934 44909942 44279968 43900007 43600073 43610126 43870145 Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0459 PM CDT Wed Aug 28 2024 Valid 301200Z - 051200Z On Days 3-4/Friday-Saturday, a large-scale ridge will remain in place across much of the West, resulting in continued boundary-layer warming and drying of fuels (most notably across the Northwest into the northern Rockies). Late on Day 4/Saturday, weak midlevel height falls will impinge on the Pacific Northwest, as a midlevel low approaches the region. Increasing PW and the weak ascent may support an isolated thunderstorm risk across coastal OR/WA, though confidence in this scenario is low. Thereafter, the midlevel low will continue east-northeastward across northern CA/southern OR on Day 5/Sunday, with strengthening ascent overspreading increasing midlevel moisture. This will support isolated dry thunderstorms, with the greatest confidence over portions of south/central OR during the late afternoon into overnight hours. On Day 6/Monday, more substantial midlevel height falls/ascent accompanying the upper trough/low will overspread OR, as PW continues to gradually increase. This will favor another day of isolated thunderstorms, some of which could be a mix of wet/dry. Given gradually drying fuels preceding this potential thunderstorm event, 10-percent Isolated Dry Thunderstorm probabilities have been added for both days. The thunderstorm risk will spread east-northeastward into the northern Rockies on Day 7/Tuesday -- in tandem with the midlevel trough -- though the details are unclear at this time. ..Weinman.. 08/28/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0459 PM CDT Wed Aug 28 2024 Valid 301200Z - 051200Z On Days 3-4/Friday-Saturday, a large-scale ridge will remain in place across much of the West, resulting in continued boundary-layer warming and drying of fuels (most notably across the Northwest into the northern Rockies). Late on Day 4/Saturday, weak midlevel height falls will impinge on the Pacific Northwest, as a midlevel low approaches the region. Increasing PW and the weak ascent may support an isolated thunderstorm risk across coastal OR/WA, though confidence in this scenario is low. Thereafter, the midlevel low will continue east-northeastward across northern CA/southern OR on Day 5/Sunday, with strengthening ascent overspreading increasing midlevel moisture. This will support isolated dry thunderstorms, with the greatest confidence over portions of south/central OR during the late afternoon into overnight hours. On Day 6/Monday, more substantial midlevel height falls/ascent accompanying the upper trough/low will overspread OR, as PW continues to gradually increase. This will favor another day of isolated thunderstorms, some of which could be a mix of wet/dry. Given gradually drying fuels preceding this potential thunderstorm event, 10-percent Isolated Dry Thunderstorm probabilities have been added for both days. The thunderstorm risk will spread east-northeastward into the northern Rockies on Day 7/Tuesday -- in tandem with the midlevel trough -- though the details are unclear at this time. ..Weinman.. 08/28/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0459 PM CDT Wed Aug 28 2024 Valid 301200Z - 051200Z On Days 3-4/Friday-Saturday, a large-scale ridge will remain in place across much of the West, resulting in continued boundary-layer warming and drying of fuels (most notably across the Northwest into the northern Rockies). Late on Day 4/Saturday, weak midlevel height falls will impinge on the Pacific Northwest, as a midlevel low approaches the region. Increasing PW and the weak ascent may support an isolated thunderstorm risk across coastal OR/WA, though confidence in this scenario is low. Thereafter, the midlevel low will continue east-northeastward across northern CA/southern OR on Day 5/Sunday, with strengthening ascent overspreading increasing midlevel moisture. This will support isolated dry thunderstorms, with the greatest confidence over portions of south/central OR during the late afternoon into overnight hours. On Day 6/Monday, more substantial midlevel height falls/ascent accompanying the upper trough/low will overspread OR, as PW continues to gradually increase. This will favor another day of isolated thunderstorms, some of which could be a mix of wet/dry. Given gradually drying fuels preceding this potential thunderstorm event, 10-percent Isolated Dry Thunderstorm probabilities have been added for both days. The thunderstorm risk will spread east-northeastward into the northern Rockies on Day 7/Tuesday -- in tandem with the midlevel trough -- though the details are unclear at this time. ..Weinman.. 08/28/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0459 PM CDT Wed Aug 28 2024 Valid 301200Z - 051200Z On Days 3-4/Friday-Saturday, a large-scale ridge will remain in place across much of the West, resulting in continued boundary-layer warming and drying of fuels (most notably across the Northwest into the northern Rockies). Late on Day 4/Saturday, weak midlevel height falls will impinge on the Pacific Northwest, as a midlevel low approaches the region. Increasing PW and the weak ascent may support an isolated thunderstorm risk across coastal OR/WA, though confidence in this scenario is low. Thereafter, the midlevel low will continue east-northeastward across northern CA/southern OR on Day 5/Sunday, with strengthening ascent overspreading increasing midlevel moisture. This will support isolated dry thunderstorms, with the greatest confidence over portions of south/central OR during the late afternoon into overnight hours. On Day 6/Monday, more substantial midlevel height falls/ascent accompanying the upper trough/low will overspread OR, as PW continues to gradually increase. This will favor another day of isolated thunderstorms, some of which could be a mix of wet/dry. Given gradually drying fuels preceding this potential thunderstorm event, 10-percent Isolated Dry Thunderstorm probabilities have been added for both days. The thunderstorm risk will spread east-northeastward into the northern Rockies on Day 7/Tuesday -- in tandem with the midlevel trough -- though the details are unclear at this time. ..Weinman.. 08/28/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0459 PM CDT Wed Aug 28 2024 Valid 301200Z - 051200Z On Days 3-4/Friday-Saturday, a large-scale ridge will remain in place across much of the West, resulting in continued boundary-layer warming and drying of fuels (most notably across the Northwest into the northern Rockies). Late on Day 4/Saturday, weak midlevel height falls will impinge on the Pacific Northwest, as a midlevel low approaches the region. Increasing PW and the weak ascent may support an isolated thunderstorm risk across coastal OR/WA, though confidence in this scenario is low. Thereafter, the midlevel low will continue east-northeastward across northern CA/southern OR on Day 5/Sunday, with strengthening ascent overspreading increasing midlevel moisture. This will support isolated dry thunderstorms, with the greatest confidence over portions of south/central OR during the late afternoon into overnight hours. On Day 6/Monday, more substantial midlevel height falls/ascent accompanying the upper trough/low will overspread OR, as PW continues to gradually increase. This will favor another day of isolated thunderstorms, some of which could be a mix of wet/dry. Given gradually drying fuels preceding this potential thunderstorm event, 10-percent Isolated Dry Thunderstorm probabilities have been added for both days. The thunderstorm risk will spread east-northeastward into the northern Rockies on Day 7/Tuesday -- in tandem with the midlevel trough -- though the details are unclear at this time. ..Weinman.. 08/28/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0459 PM CDT Wed Aug 28 2024 Valid 301200Z - 051200Z On Days 3-4/Friday-Saturday, a large-scale ridge will remain in place across much of the West, resulting in continued boundary-layer warming and drying of fuels (most notably across the Northwest into the northern Rockies). Late on Day 4/Saturday, weak midlevel height falls will impinge on the Pacific Northwest, as a midlevel low approaches the region. Increasing PW and the weak ascent may support an isolated thunderstorm risk across coastal OR/WA, though confidence in this scenario is low. Thereafter, the midlevel low will continue east-northeastward across northern CA/southern OR on Day 5/Sunday, with strengthening ascent overspreading increasing midlevel moisture. This will support isolated dry thunderstorms, with the greatest confidence over portions of south/central OR during the late afternoon into overnight hours. On Day 6/Monday, more substantial midlevel height falls/ascent accompanying the upper trough/low will overspread OR, as PW continues to gradually increase. This will favor another day of isolated thunderstorms, some of which could be a mix of wet/dry. Given gradually drying fuels preceding this potential thunderstorm event, 10-percent Isolated Dry Thunderstorm probabilities have been added for both days. The thunderstorm risk will spread east-northeastward into the northern Rockies on Day 7/Tuesday -- in tandem with the midlevel trough -- though the details are unclear at this time. ..Weinman.. 08/28/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0459 PM CDT Wed Aug 28 2024 Valid 301200Z - 051200Z On Days 3-4/Friday-Saturday, a large-scale ridge will remain in place across much of the West, resulting in continued boundary-layer warming and drying of fuels (most notably across the Northwest into the northern Rockies). Late on Day 4/Saturday, weak midlevel height falls will impinge on the Pacific Northwest, as a midlevel low approaches the region. Increasing PW and the weak ascent may support an isolated thunderstorm risk across coastal OR/WA, though confidence in this scenario is low. Thereafter, the midlevel low will continue east-northeastward across northern CA/southern OR on Day 5/Sunday, with strengthening ascent overspreading increasing midlevel moisture. This will support isolated dry thunderstorms, with the greatest confidence over portions of south/central OR during the late afternoon into overnight hours. On Day 6/Monday, more substantial midlevel height falls/ascent accompanying the upper trough/low will overspread OR, as PW continues to gradually increase. This will favor another day of isolated thunderstorms, some of which could be a mix of wet/dry. Given gradually drying fuels preceding this potential thunderstorm event, 10-percent Isolated Dry Thunderstorm probabilities have been added for both days. The thunderstorm risk will spread east-northeastward into the northern Rockies on Day 7/Tuesday -- in tandem with the midlevel trough -- though the details are unclear at this time. ..Weinman.. 08/28/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0459 PM CDT Wed Aug 28 2024 Valid 301200Z - 051200Z On Days 3-4/Friday-Saturday, a large-scale ridge will remain in place across much of the West, resulting in continued boundary-layer warming and drying of fuels (most notably across the Northwest into the northern Rockies). Late on Day 4/Saturday, weak midlevel height falls will impinge on the Pacific Northwest, as a midlevel low approaches the region. Increasing PW and the weak ascent may support an isolated thunderstorm risk across coastal OR/WA, though confidence in this scenario is low. Thereafter, the midlevel low will continue east-northeastward across northern CA/southern OR on Day 5/Sunday, with strengthening ascent overspreading increasing midlevel moisture. This will support isolated dry thunderstorms, with the greatest confidence over portions of south/central OR during the late afternoon into overnight hours. On Day 6/Monday, more substantial midlevel height falls/ascent accompanying the upper trough/low will overspread OR, as PW continues to gradually increase. This will favor another day of isolated thunderstorms, some of which could be a mix of wet/dry. Given gradually drying fuels preceding this potential thunderstorm event, 10-percent Isolated Dry Thunderstorm probabilities have been added for both days. The thunderstorm risk will spread east-northeastward into the northern Rockies on Day 7/Tuesday -- in tandem with the midlevel trough -- though the details are unclear at this time. ..Weinman.. 08/28/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0459 PM CDT Wed Aug 28 2024 Valid 301200Z - 051200Z On Days 3-4/Friday-Saturday, a large-scale ridge will remain in place across much of the West, resulting in continued boundary-layer warming and drying of fuels (most notably across the Northwest into the northern Rockies). Late on Day 4/Saturday, weak midlevel height falls will impinge on the Pacific Northwest, as a midlevel low approaches the region. Increasing PW and the weak ascent may support an isolated thunderstorm risk across coastal OR/WA, though confidence in this scenario is low. Thereafter, the midlevel low will continue east-northeastward across northern CA/southern OR on Day 5/Sunday, with strengthening ascent overspreading increasing midlevel moisture. This will support isolated dry thunderstorms, with the greatest confidence over portions of south/central OR during the late afternoon into overnight hours. On Day 6/Monday, more substantial midlevel height falls/ascent accompanying the upper trough/low will overspread OR, as PW continues to gradually increase. This will favor another day of isolated thunderstorms, some of which could be a mix of wet/dry. Given gradually drying fuels preceding this potential thunderstorm event, 10-percent Isolated Dry Thunderstorm probabilities have been added for both days. The thunderstorm risk will spread east-northeastward into the northern Rockies on Day 7/Tuesday -- in tandem with the midlevel trough -- though the details are unclear at this time. ..Weinman.. 08/28/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0459 PM CDT Wed Aug 28 2024 Valid 301200Z - 051200Z On Days 3-4/Friday-Saturday, a large-scale ridge will remain in place across much of the West, resulting in continued boundary-layer warming and drying of fuels (most notably across the Northwest into the northern Rockies). Late on Day 4/Saturday, weak midlevel height falls will impinge on the Pacific Northwest, as a midlevel low approaches the region. Increasing PW and the weak ascent may support an isolated thunderstorm risk across coastal OR/WA, though confidence in this scenario is low. Thereafter, the midlevel low will continue east-northeastward across northern CA/southern OR on Day 5/Sunday, with strengthening ascent overspreading increasing midlevel moisture. This will support isolated dry thunderstorms, with the greatest confidence over portions of south/central OR during the late afternoon into overnight hours. On Day 6/Monday, more substantial midlevel height falls/ascent accompanying the upper trough/low will overspread OR, as PW continues to gradually increase. This will favor another day of isolated thunderstorms, some of which could be a mix of wet/dry. Given gradually drying fuels preceding this potential thunderstorm event, 10-percent Isolated Dry Thunderstorm probabilities have been added for both days. The thunderstorm risk will spread east-northeastward into the northern Rockies on Day 7/Tuesday -- in tandem with the midlevel trough -- though the details are unclear at this time. ..Weinman.. 08/28/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

WW 0661 Status Updates
STATUS FOR WATCH 0661 HAS NOT BEEN ISSUED YET Read more

WW 0661 Status Updates
STATUS FOR WATCH 0661 HAS NOT BEEN ISSUED YET Read more

WW 0661 Status Updates
STATUS FOR WATCH 0661 HAS NOT BEEN ISSUED YET Read more

WW 661 TORNADO ND SD 282140Z - 290400Z
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED Tornado Watch Number 661 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 440 PM CDT Wed Aug 28 2024 The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a * Tornado Watch for portions of South central North Dakota North central South Dakota * Effective this Wednesday afternoon and evening from 440 PM until 1100 PM CDT. * Primary threats include... A few tornadoes possible Scattered large hail and isolated very large hail events to 3 inches in diameter likely Scattered damaging wind gusts to 70 mph possible SUMMARY...Supercell development is expected soon near the central North Dakota/South Dakota border, with additional storm development in the next 1-3 hours farther north and south in the watch area. The storm environment initially favors supercells with tornadoes and very large hail (up to 3 inches in diameter), while some clustering of storms later this evening will lead to some increase in the potential for damaging winds of 60-70 mph. The tornado watch area is approximately along and 60 statute miles east and west of a line from 40 miles east northeast of Garrison ND to 80 miles south southeast of Mobridge SD. For a complete depiction of the watch see the associated watch outline update (WOUS64 KWNS WOU1). PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... REMEMBER...A Tornado Watch means conditions are favorable for tornadoes and severe thunderstorms in and close to the watch area. Persons in these areas should be on the lookout for threatening weather conditions and listen for later statements and possible warnings. && AVIATION...Tornadoes and a few severe thunderstorms with hail surface and aloft to 3 inches. Extreme turbulence and surface wind gusts to 60 knots. A few cumulonimbi with maximum tops to 600. Mean storm motion vector 25015. ...Thompson Read more