Severe Storms

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0149 AM CDT Wed Aug 28 2024 Valid 281200Z - 291200Z ...Synopsis... A mid-level trough will traverse the northern Rockies today, encouraging strong surface lee troughing over the northern Plains. By afternoon, isallobaric and downslope flow will promote dry and windy conditions over portions of the central and northern Rockies. 15-25 mph sustained west-southwesterly surface winds will overlap with 15-20 percent RH, from portions of southeast Montana into central Wyoming. Elevated highlights have been maintained in central Wyoming, where dry and windy conditions will best overlap with fuels that are at least marginally receptive to wildfire spread. ..Squitieri.. 08/28/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC 0600Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0104 AM CDT Wed Aug 28 2024 Valid 291200Z - 301200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF MINNESOTA AND WESTERN WISCONSIN...AND INTO IOWA... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are possible on Thursday from portions of the Upper/Middle Mississippi Valley to the central Plains. A few strong storms also will be possible over portions of the Virginia and North Carolina vicinity. ...Synopsis... While weak upper short-wave troughing shifts across the Northeast on Thursday, a much stronger trough/low will continue to advance into/across the north-central U.S. through the period. At the surface, a cold front is forecast to sag southward across the Mid-Atlantic region in lee of the Appalachians, while a more substantial cold front shifts eastward/southeastward across the Plains through the period. ...Mid and Upper Mississippi Valley area to the central Plains... As the upper low and associated trough extending southward across the northern Plains gradually advances, eastward progression of the associated cold front will result in afternoon storm development from western Minnesota southwestward into Kansas. While both instability and shear are expected to diminish gradually with southwestward extent along the front, 2500 to 3500 J/kg mixed-layer CAPE is forecast by late afternoon from central Minnesota into far northeastern Nebraska and Iowa, along with 0-6 km shear in the 35 to 45 kt range. This will support vigorous storms, and attendant risks for large hail and damaging wind gusts. With time, linear/upscale organization is expected to occur, with severe risk shifting across the Upper Midwest/upper Mississippi Valley region through the evening hours. Lesser risk with southwestward extent should gradually diminish after sunset. ...Virginia/North Carolina vicinity... As weak mid-level short-wave troughing shifts across the Northeast, a cold front back-dooring southward in lee of the Appalachians may focus development of afternoon showers and thunderstorms. Rather weak northwesterly flow aloft, but moderate destabilization that is expected to occur, will likely support a few multicell clusters, along with attendant risks for marginal hail and minor wind damage. Risk should remain confined to the afternoon and early evening hours, diminishing in tandem with nocturnal stabilization. ..Goss.. 08/28/2024 Read more

SPC 0600Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0104 AM CDT Wed Aug 28 2024 Valid 291200Z - 301200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF MINNESOTA AND WESTERN WISCONSIN...AND INTO IOWA... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are possible on Thursday from portions of the Upper/Middle Mississippi Valley to the central Plains. A few strong storms also will be possible over portions of the Virginia and North Carolina vicinity. ...Synopsis... While weak upper short-wave troughing shifts across the Northeast on Thursday, a much stronger trough/low will continue to advance into/across the north-central U.S. through the period. At the surface, a cold front is forecast to sag southward across the Mid-Atlantic region in lee of the Appalachians, while a more substantial cold front shifts eastward/southeastward across the Plains through the period. ...Mid and Upper Mississippi Valley area to the central Plains... As the upper low and associated trough extending southward across the northern Plains gradually advances, eastward progression of the associated cold front will result in afternoon storm development from western Minnesota southwestward into Kansas. While both instability and shear are expected to diminish gradually with southwestward extent along the front, 2500 to 3500 J/kg mixed-layer CAPE is forecast by late afternoon from central Minnesota into far northeastern Nebraska and Iowa, along with 0-6 km shear in the 35 to 45 kt range. This will support vigorous storms, and attendant risks for large hail and damaging wind gusts. With time, linear/upscale organization is expected to occur, with severe risk shifting across the Upper Midwest/upper Mississippi Valley region through the evening hours. Lesser risk with southwestward extent should gradually diminish after sunset. ...Virginia/North Carolina vicinity... As weak mid-level short-wave troughing shifts across the Northeast, a cold front back-dooring southward in lee of the Appalachians may focus development of afternoon showers and thunderstorms. Rather weak northwesterly flow aloft, but moderate destabilization that is expected to occur, will likely support a few multicell clusters, along with attendant risks for marginal hail and minor wind damage. Risk should remain confined to the afternoon and early evening hours, diminishing in tandem with nocturnal stabilization. ..Goss.. 08/28/2024 Read more

SPC 0600Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0104 AM CDT Wed Aug 28 2024 Valid 291200Z - 301200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF MINNESOTA AND WESTERN WISCONSIN...AND INTO IOWA... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are possible on Thursday from portions of the Upper/Middle Mississippi Valley to the central Plains. A few strong storms also will be possible over portions of the Virginia and North Carolina vicinity. ...Synopsis... While weak upper short-wave troughing shifts across the Northeast on Thursday, a much stronger trough/low will continue to advance into/across the north-central U.S. through the period. At the surface, a cold front is forecast to sag southward across the Mid-Atlantic region in lee of the Appalachians, while a more substantial cold front shifts eastward/southeastward across the Plains through the period. ...Mid and Upper Mississippi Valley area to the central Plains... As the upper low and associated trough extending southward across the northern Plains gradually advances, eastward progression of the associated cold front will result in afternoon storm development from western Minnesota southwestward into Kansas. While both instability and shear are expected to diminish gradually with southwestward extent along the front, 2500 to 3500 J/kg mixed-layer CAPE is forecast by late afternoon from central Minnesota into far northeastern Nebraska and Iowa, along with 0-6 km shear in the 35 to 45 kt range. This will support vigorous storms, and attendant risks for large hail and damaging wind gusts. With time, linear/upscale organization is expected to occur, with severe risk shifting across the Upper Midwest/upper Mississippi Valley region through the evening hours. Lesser risk with southwestward extent should gradually diminish after sunset. ...Virginia/North Carolina vicinity... As weak mid-level short-wave troughing shifts across the Northeast, a cold front back-dooring southward in lee of the Appalachians may focus development of afternoon showers and thunderstorms. Rather weak northwesterly flow aloft, but moderate destabilization that is expected to occur, will likely support a few multicell clusters, along with attendant risks for marginal hail and minor wind damage. Risk should remain confined to the afternoon and early evening hours, diminishing in tandem with nocturnal stabilization. ..Goss.. 08/28/2024 Read more

SPC 0600Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0104 AM CDT Wed Aug 28 2024 Valid 291200Z - 301200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF MINNESOTA AND WESTERN WISCONSIN...AND INTO IOWA... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are possible on Thursday from portions of the Upper/Middle Mississippi Valley to the central Plains. A few strong storms also will be possible over portions of the Virginia and North Carolina vicinity. ...Synopsis... While weak upper short-wave troughing shifts across the Northeast on Thursday, a much stronger trough/low will continue to advance into/across the north-central U.S. through the period. At the surface, a cold front is forecast to sag southward across the Mid-Atlantic region in lee of the Appalachians, while a more substantial cold front shifts eastward/southeastward across the Plains through the period. ...Mid and Upper Mississippi Valley area to the central Plains... As the upper low and associated trough extending southward across the northern Plains gradually advances, eastward progression of the associated cold front will result in afternoon storm development from western Minnesota southwestward into Kansas. While both instability and shear are expected to diminish gradually with southwestward extent along the front, 2500 to 3500 J/kg mixed-layer CAPE is forecast by late afternoon from central Minnesota into far northeastern Nebraska and Iowa, along with 0-6 km shear in the 35 to 45 kt range. This will support vigorous storms, and attendant risks for large hail and damaging wind gusts. With time, linear/upscale organization is expected to occur, with severe risk shifting across the Upper Midwest/upper Mississippi Valley region through the evening hours. Lesser risk with southwestward extent should gradually diminish after sunset. ...Virginia/North Carolina vicinity... As weak mid-level short-wave troughing shifts across the Northeast, a cold front back-dooring southward in lee of the Appalachians may focus development of afternoon showers and thunderstorms. Rather weak northwesterly flow aloft, but moderate destabilization that is expected to occur, will likely support a few multicell clusters, along with attendant risks for marginal hail and minor wind damage. Risk should remain confined to the afternoon and early evening hours, diminishing in tandem with nocturnal stabilization. ..Goss.. 08/28/2024 Read more

SPC 0600Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0104 AM CDT Wed Aug 28 2024 Valid 291200Z - 301200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF MINNESOTA AND WESTERN WISCONSIN...AND INTO IOWA... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are possible on Thursday from portions of the Upper/Middle Mississippi Valley to the central Plains. A few strong storms also will be possible over portions of the Virginia and North Carolina vicinity. ...Synopsis... While weak upper short-wave troughing shifts across the Northeast on Thursday, a much stronger trough/low will continue to advance into/across the north-central U.S. through the period. At the surface, a cold front is forecast to sag southward across the Mid-Atlantic region in lee of the Appalachians, while a more substantial cold front shifts eastward/southeastward across the Plains through the period. ...Mid and Upper Mississippi Valley area to the central Plains... As the upper low and associated trough extending southward across the northern Plains gradually advances, eastward progression of the associated cold front will result in afternoon storm development from western Minnesota southwestward into Kansas. While both instability and shear are expected to diminish gradually with southwestward extent along the front, 2500 to 3500 J/kg mixed-layer CAPE is forecast by late afternoon from central Minnesota into far northeastern Nebraska and Iowa, along with 0-6 km shear in the 35 to 45 kt range. This will support vigorous storms, and attendant risks for large hail and damaging wind gusts. With time, linear/upscale organization is expected to occur, with severe risk shifting across the Upper Midwest/upper Mississippi Valley region through the evening hours. Lesser risk with southwestward extent should gradually diminish after sunset. ...Virginia/North Carolina vicinity... As weak mid-level short-wave troughing shifts across the Northeast, a cold front back-dooring southward in lee of the Appalachians may focus development of afternoon showers and thunderstorms. Rather weak northwesterly flow aloft, but moderate destabilization that is expected to occur, will likely support a few multicell clusters, along with attendant risks for marginal hail and minor wind damage. Risk should remain confined to the afternoon and early evening hours, diminishing in tandem with nocturnal stabilization. ..Goss.. 08/28/2024 Read more

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1247 AM CDT Wed Aug 28 2024 Valid 281200Z - 291200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY/MIDDLE ATLANTIC AND OVER THE DAKOTAS... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are expected from the Ohio Valley to the northern Mid-Atlantic coast, and across parts of North and South Dakota. ...Ohio Valley/Middle Atlantic... Upper ridge is gradually breaking down over the Ohio Valley, as heights are suppressed along the southern fringe of stronger flow, in association with a progressive short-wave trough. Additionally, a weak disturbance is currently located over northern MO which should advance into Indiana by 18z. Aforementioned Great Lakes short-wave trough will encourage a surface boundary to sag south into the OH Valley by mid day. This boundary will likely serve as the primary focus for robust convective development later today. Early this morning, leading edge of a larger complex of convection has advanced into northwest OH. This activity will propagate downstream into western PA later this morning, and some intensification may occur along the leading edge of the MCS carcass as boundary-layer heating aids destabilization. If so, this activity would progress southeast toward MD/DE/southern NJ with an attendant risk for primarily wind. Upstream, a secondary corridor of robust convection should evolve ahead of the northern MO disturbance that tracks into IN by midday. Strongest corridor of instability will extend across southern IL into central OH ahead of this feature/surface front. While deep-layer flow will remain seasonally weak, damaging winds along with some hail risk will be noted with this robust convection. Convective temperatures will be breached early, and surface-based updrafts may begin to organize by 17-18z. ...Dakotas... Strong short-wave trough will migrate across the northern Rockies into eastern MT by 29/12z. 60-120m, 12hr mid-level height falls will develop ahead of this feature across eastern MT/western ND during the latter half of the period. This strong short wave will result in a pronounced surface front that will surge into the western Dakotas by 18z, then into the eastern Dakotas by the end of the period. Very strong surface heating is forecast across the High Plains of SD extending into extreme southern ND. This will result in a narrow corridor of strong buoyancy by early afternoon, but capping will hold until 22-23z as temperatures warm through the mid 90s. NAM forecast sounding for PIR at 23z exhibits negligible inhibition with ample 0-6km shear for supercells and very steep lapse rates. Models also suggest LLJ will strengthen ahead of the front, and this will support organized, longer-lived updrafts. Scattered supercells should evolve ahead of the front, and will pose a risk for very large hail and damaging winds. A tornado can not be ruled out with early evening supercells. ..Darrow/Squitieri.. 08/28/2024 Read more

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1247 AM CDT Wed Aug 28 2024 Valid 281200Z - 291200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY/MIDDLE ATLANTIC AND OVER THE DAKOTAS... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are expected from the Ohio Valley to the northern Mid-Atlantic coast, and across parts of North and South Dakota. ...Ohio Valley/Middle Atlantic... Upper ridge is gradually breaking down over the Ohio Valley, as heights are suppressed along the southern fringe of stronger flow, in association with a progressive short-wave trough. Additionally, a weak disturbance is currently located over northern MO which should advance into Indiana by 18z. Aforementioned Great Lakes short-wave trough will encourage a surface boundary to sag south into the OH Valley by mid day. This boundary will likely serve as the primary focus for robust convective development later today. Early this morning, leading edge of a larger complex of convection has advanced into northwest OH. This activity will propagate downstream into western PA later this morning, and some intensification may occur along the leading edge of the MCS carcass as boundary-layer heating aids destabilization. If so, this activity would progress southeast toward MD/DE/southern NJ with an attendant risk for primarily wind. Upstream, a secondary corridor of robust convection should evolve ahead of the northern MO disturbance that tracks into IN by midday. Strongest corridor of instability will extend across southern IL into central OH ahead of this feature/surface front. While deep-layer flow will remain seasonally weak, damaging winds along with some hail risk will be noted with this robust convection. Convective temperatures will be breached early, and surface-based updrafts may begin to organize by 17-18z. ...Dakotas... Strong short-wave trough will migrate across the northern Rockies into eastern MT by 29/12z. 60-120m, 12hr mid-level height falls will develop ahead of this feature across eastern MT/western ND during the latter half of the period. This strong short wave will result in a pronounced surface front that will surge into the western Dakotas by 18z, then into the eastern Dakotas by the end of the period. Very strong surface heating is forecast across the High Plains of SD extending into extreme southern ND. This will result in a narrow corridor of strong buoyancy by early afternoon, but capping will hold until 22-23z as temperatures warm through the mid 90s. NAM forecast sounding for PIR at 23z exhibits negligible inhibition with ample 0-6km shear for supercells and very steep lapse rates. Models also suggest LLJ will strengthen ahead of the front, and this will support organized, longer-lived updrafts. Scattered supercells should evolve ahead of the front, and will pose a risk for very large hail and damaging winds. A tornado can not be ruled out with early evening supercells. ..Darrow/Squitieri.. 08/28/2024 Read more

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1247 AM CDT Wed Aug 28 2024 Valid 281200Z - 291200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY/MIDDLE ATLANTIC AND OVER THE DAKOTAS... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are expected from the Ohio Valley to the northern Mid-Atlantic coast, and across parts of North and South Dakota. ...Ohio Valley/Middle Atlantic... Upper ridge is gradually breaking down over the Ohio Valley, as heights are suppressed along the southern fringe of stronger flow, in association with a progressive short-wave trough. Additionally, a weak disturbance is currently located over northern MO which should advance into Indiana by 18z. Aforementioned Great Lakes short-wave trough will encourage a surface boundary to sag south into the OH Valley by mid day. This boundary will likely serve as the primary focus for robust convective development later today. Early this morning, leading edge of a larger complex of convection has advanced into northwest OH. This activity will propagate downstream into western PA later this morning, and some intensification may occur along the leading edge of the MCS carcass as boundary-layer heating aids destabilization. If so, this activity would progress southeast toward MD/DE/southern NJ with an attendant risk for primarily wind. Upstream, a secondary corridor of robust convection should evolve ahead of the northern MO disturbance that tracks into IN by midday. Strongest corridor of instability will extend across southern IL into central OH ahead of this feature/surface front. While deep-layer flow will remain seasonally weak, damaging winds along with some hail risk will be noted with this robust convection. Convective temperatures will be breached early, and surface-based updrafts may begin to organize by 17-18z. ...Dakotas... Strong short-wave trough will migrate across the northern Rockies into eastern MT by 29/12z. 60-120m, 12hr mid-level height falls will develop ahead of this feature across eastern MT/western ND during the latter half of the period. This strong short wave will result in a pronounced surface front that will surge into the western Dakotas by 18z, then into the eastern Dakotas by the end of the period. Very strong surface heating is forecast across the High Plains of SD extending into extreme southern ND. This will result in a narrow corridor of strong buoyancy by early afternoon, but capping will hold until 22-23z as temperatures warm through the mid 90s. NAM forecast sounding for PIR at 23z exhibits negligible inhibition with ample 0-6km shear for supercells and very steep lapse rates. Models also suggest LLJ will strengthen ahead of the front, and this will support organized, longer-lived updrafts. Scattered supercells should evolve ahead of the front, and will pose a risk for very large hail and damaging winds. A tornado can not be ruled out with early evening supercells. ..Darrow/Squitieri.. 08/28/2024 Read more

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1247 AM CDT Wed Aug 28 2024 Valid 281200Z - 291200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY/MIDDLE ATLANTIC AND OVER THE DAKOTAS... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are expected from the Ohio Valley to the northern Mid-Atlantic coast, and across parts of North and South Dakota. ...Ohio Valley/Middle Atlantic... Upper ridge is gradually breaking down over the Ohio Valley, as heights are suppressed along the southern fringe of stronger flow, in association with a progressive short-wave trough. Additionally, a weak disturbance is currently located over northern MO which should advance into Indiana by 18z. Aforementioned Great Lakes short-wave trough will encourage a surface boundary to sag south into the OH Valley by mid day. This boundary will likely serve as the primary focus for robust convective development later today. Early this morning, leading edge of a larger complex of convection has advanced into northwest OH. This activity will propagate downstream into western PA later this morning, and some intensification may occur along the leading edge of the MCS carcass as boundary-layer heating aids destabilization. If so, this activity would progress southeast toward MD/DE/southern NJ with an attendant risk for primarily wind. Upstream, a secondary corridor of robust convection should evolve ahead of the northern MO disturbance that tracks into IN by midday. Strongest corridor of instability will extend across southern IL into central OH ahead of this feature/surface front. While deep-layer flow will remain seasonally weak, damaging winds along with some hail risk will be noted with this robust convection. Convective temperatures will be breached early, and surface-based updrafts may begin to organize by 17-18z. ...Dakotas... Strong short-wave trough will migrate across the northern Rockies into eastern MT by 29/12z. 60-120m, 12hr mid-level height falls will develop ahead of this feature across eastern MT/western ND during the latter half of the period. This strong short wave will result in a pronounced surface front that will surge into the western Dakotas by 18z, then into the eastern Dakotas by the end of the period. Very strong surface heating is forecast across the High Plains of SD extending into extreme southern ND. This will result in a narrow corridor of strong buoyancy by early afternoon, but capping will hold until 22-23z as temperatures warm through the mid 90s. NAM forecast sounding for PIR at 23z exhibits negligible inhibition with ample 0-6km shear for supercells and very steep lapse rates. Models also suggest LLJ will strengthen ahead of the front, and this will support organized, longer-lived updrafts. Scattered supercells should evolve ahead of the front, and will pose a risk for very large hail and damaging winds. A tornado can not be ruled out with early evening supercells. ..Darrow/Squitieri.. 08/28/2024 Read more

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1247 AM CDT Wed Aug 28 2024 Valid 281200Z - 291200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY/MIDDLE ATLANTIC AND OVER THE DAKOTAS... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are expected from the Ohio Valley to the northern Mid-Atlantic coast, and across parts of North and South Dakota. ...Ohio Valley/Middle Atlantic... Upper ridge is gradually breaking down over the Ohio Valley, as heights are suppressed along the southern fringe of stronger flow, in association with a progressive short-wave trough. Additionally, a weak disturbance is currently located over northern MO which should advance into Indiana by 18z. Aforementioned Great Lakes short-wave trough will encourage a surface boundary to sag south into the OH Valley by mid day. This boundary will likely serve as the primary focus for robust convective development later today. Early this morning, leading edge of a larger complex of convection has advanced into northwest OH. This activity will propagate downstream into western PA later this morning, and some intensification may occur along the leading edge of the MCS carcass as boundary-layer heating aids destabilization. If so, this activity would progress southeast toward MD/DE/southern NJ with an attendant risk for primarily wind. Upstream, a secondary corridor of robust convection should evolve ahead of the northern MO disturbance that tracks into IN by midday. Strongest corridor of instability will extend across southern IL into central OH ahead of this feature/surface front. While deep-layer flow will remain seasonally weak, damaging winds along with some hail risk will be noted with this robust convection. Convective temperatures will be breached early, and surface-based updrafts may begin to organize by 17-18z. ...Dakotas... Strong short-wave trough will migrate across the northern Rockies into eastern MT by 29/12z. 60-120m, 12hr mid-level height falls will develop ahead of this feature across eastern MT/western ND during the latter half of the period. This strong short wave will result in a pronounced surface front that will surge into the western Dakotas by 18z, then into the eastern Dakotas by the end of the period. Very strong surface heating is forecast across the High Plains of SD extending into extreme southern ND. This will result in a narrow corridor of strong buoyancy by early afternoon, but capping will hold until 22-23z as temperatures warm through the mid 90s. NAM forecast sounding for PIR at 23z exhibits negligible inhibition with ample 0-6km shear for supercells and very steep lapse rates. Models also suggest LLJ will strengthen ahead of the front, and this will support organized, longer-lived updrafts. Scattered supercells should evolve ahead of the front, and will pose a risk for very large hail and damaging winds. A tornado can not be ruled out with early evening supercells. ..Darrow/Squitieri.. 08/28/2024 Read more

MD 2023 CONCERNING SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 658... FOR PARTS OF NORTHERN IL INTO EXTREME NORTHWEST IN
Mesoscale Discussion 2023 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0939 PM CDT Tue Aug 27 2024 Areas affected...Parts of northern IL into extreme northwest IN Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 658... Valid 280239Z - 280415Z The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 658 continues. SUMMARY...Some threat for hail and damaging wind may persist through late evening. DISCUSSION...Convection has largely become outflow dominant this evening across northern IL, within an environment that is strongly unstable (with MLCAPE of 3000-4000 J/kg), but with only weak to marginal deep-layer shear. Favorable thermodynamic profiles (as noted on the 00Z ILX/DVN soundings) will continue to support briefly intense updrafts with isolated hail potential. A large area of convective outflow has moved into western IL from northeast MO/southeast IA, with smaller outflows being generated by redeveloping storms within the primary instability axis. Locally damaging winds may accompany this outflow-dominant convection through late evening, before increasingly extensive convective overturning results in a weakening trend overnight. ..Dean.. 08/28/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...LOT...ILX...DVN... LAT...LON 41079060 41458884 41528784 41558737 41418713 41118715 40818752 40538853 40428999 40439026 40509056 41079060 Read more

WW 0658 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 658 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 30 W MMO TO 5 E VPZ. WW 658 WILL BE ALLOWED TO EXPIRE AT 280400Z. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION SEE MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2023 ..DEAN..08/28/24 ATTN...WFO...LOT...MKX... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 658 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS ILC053-063-075-091-099-105-197-280400- IL . ILLINOIS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE FORD GRUNDY IROQUOIS KANKAKEE LA SALLE LIVINGSTON WILL INC007-073-089-111-127-280400- IN . INDIANA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE BENTON JASPER LAKE NEWTON PORTER THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL Read more

WW 0658 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 658 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 30 W MMO TO 5 E VPZ. WW 658 WILL BE ALLOWED TO EXPIRE AT 280400Z. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION SEE MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2023 ..DEAN..08/28/24 ATTN...WFO...LOT...MKX... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 658 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS ILC053-063-075-091-099-105-197-280400- IL . ILLINOIS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE FORD GRUNDY IROQUOIS KANKAKEE LA SALLE LIVINGSTON WILL INC007-073-089-111-127-280400- IN . INDIANA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE BENTON JASPER LAKE NEWTON PORTER THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL Read more

WW 658 SEVERE TSTM IL IN WI LM 272210Z - 280400Z
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED Severe Thunderstorm Watch Number 658 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 510 PM CDT Tue Aug 27 2024 The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a * Severe Thunderstorm Watch for portions of Northern Illinois Northwest Indiana Far Southeast Wisconsin Lake Michigan * Effective this Tuesday afternoon and evening from 510 PM until 1100 PM CDT. * Primary threats include... Scattered damaging winds and isolated significant gusts to 75 mph possible Scattered large hail and isolated very large hail events to 2 inches in diameter possible SUMMARY...Thunderstorms should continue to grow in coverage and intensity this afternoon and evening as they move east-southeastward. Large hail around 1-2 inches in diameter will be a threat with any supercells, but severe/damaging winds generally around 60-70 mph may also occur if thunderstorms can grow into a small cluster. The severe thunderstorm watch area is approximately along and 45 statute miles east and west of a line from 15 miles west of Racine WI to 55 miles southeast of Marseilles IL. For a complete depiction of the watch see the associated watch outline update (WOUS64 KWNS WOU8). PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... REMEMBER...A Severe Thunderstorm Watch means conditions are favorable for severe thunderstorms in and close to the watch area. Persons in these areas should be on the lookout for threatening weather conditions and listen for later statements and possible warnings. Severe thunderstorms can and occasionally do produce tornadoes. && OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 656...WW 657... AVIATION...A few severe thunderstorms with hail surface and aloft to 2 inches. Extreme turbulence and surface wind gusts to 65 knots. A few cumulonimbi with maximum tops to 500. Mean storm motion vector 30025. ...Gleason Read more

WW 0660 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 660 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM VPZ TO 20 SE SBN TO 15 E AZO. ..DEAN..08/28/24 ATTN...WFO...IWX... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 660 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS INC017-039-049-069-085-087-099-103-113-131-149-169-181-183- 280440- IN . INDIANA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE CASS ELKHART FULTON HUNTINGTON KOSCIUSKO LAGRANGE MARSHALL MIAMI NOBLE PULASKI STARKE WABASH WHITE WHITLEY MIC149-280440- MI . MICHIGAN COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE ST. JOSEPH THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES. Read more

WW 0660 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 660 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM VPZ TO 20 SE SBN TO 15 E AZO. ..DEAN..08/28/24 ATTN...WFO...IWX... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 660 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS INC017-039-049-069-085-087-099-103-113-131-149-169-181-183- 280440- IN . INDIANA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE CASS ELKHART FULTON HUNTINGTON KOSCIUSKO LAGRANGE MARSHALL MIAMI NOBLE PULASKI STARKE WABASH WHITE WHITLEY MIC149-280440- MI . MICHIGAN COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE ST. JOSEPH THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES. Read more

WW 660 SEVERE TSTM IN MI LM 280015Z - 280600Z
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED Severe Thunderstorm Watch Number 660 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 815 PM EDT Tue Aug 27 2024 The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a * Severe Thunderstorm Watch for portions of Northern Indiana Far Southwest Lower Michigan Lake Michigan * Effective this Tuesday night and Wednesday morning from 815 PM until 200 AM EDT. * Primary threats include... Scattered damaging wind gusts to 70 mph possible Isolated large hail events to 1.5 inches in diameter possible SUMMARY...Thunderstorms will spread southeastward across far southwest Lower Michigan and northern Indiana this evening while posing a threat for mainly severe/damaging winds up to 60-70 mph. Isolated large hail may also occur. The severe thunderstorm watch area is approximately along and 45 statute miles north and south of a line from 55 miles east southeast of South Bend IN to 40 miles southwest of South Bend IN. For a complete depiction of the watch see the associated watch outline update (WOUS64 KWNS WOU0). PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... REMEMBER...A Severe Thunderstorm Watch means conditions are favorable for severe thunderstorms in and close to the watch area. Persons in these areas should be on the lookout for threatening weather conditions and listen for later statements and possible warnings. Severe thunderstorms can and occasionally do produce tornadoes. && OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 658...WW 659... AVIATION...A few severe thunderstorms with hail surface and aloft to 1.5 inches. Extreme turbulence and surface wind gusts to 60 knots. A few cumulonimbi with maximum tops to 500. Mean storm motion vector 30035. ...Gleason Read more

WW 0660 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 660 THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES ACROSS THE ENTIRE WATCH AREA. ..DEAN..08/28/24 ATTN...WFO...IWX... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 660 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS INC017-039-049-069-085-087-091-099-103-113-131-141-149-169-181- 183-280340- IN . INDIANA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE CASS ELKHART FULTON HUNTINGTON KOSCIUSKO LAGRANGE LA PORTE MARSHALL MIAMI NOBLE PULASKI ST. JOSEPH STARKE WABASH WHITE WHITLEY MIC021-027-149-280340- MI . MICHIGAN COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE BERRIEN CASS ST. JOSEPH THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES. Read more

MD 2022 CONCERNING SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 658...660... FOR NORTHERN IN...SOUTHWEST MI
Mesoscale Discussion 2022 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0829 PM CDT Tue Aug 27 2024 Areas affected...Northern IN...southwest MI Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 658...660... Valid 280129Z - 280300Z The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 658, 660 continues. SUMMARY...The damaging-wind threat is expected to spread southeastward with a small storm cluster. DISCUSSION...A small storm cluster that formed from initial supercell development near/north of Chicago has accelerated southeastward and become better organized this evening, with rather strong velocities (60-70 kt at 3-5 km ARL) noted from KLOT/KIWX radars. While MLCINH increases with southeastward extent, strong buoyancy and the current organized nature of this cluster will continue to support a threat of severe/damaging gusts across a larger part of northern IN and southwest MI into late evening. Isolated hail will also be possible with the strongest embedded updrafts within this cluster. ..Dean.. 08/28/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...IWX...LOT... LAT...LON 42068664 42008612 41908554 41708516 41418500 41128513 40928551 40938599 41088662 41338727 41638722 42068664 Read more