Severe Storms

SPC 1930Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0223 PM CDT Fri Aug 30 2024 Valid 011200Z - 021200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM NEW ENGLAND INTO THE CAROLINAS/SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS VICINITY... ...SUMMARY... Strong/isolated severe storms capable of producing gusty/damaging winds will be possible from New England to the Carolinas Sunday. ...Synopsis... A deep upper-level trough will move across parts of eastern Canada into the Northeast and Mid Atlantic on Sunday. Within the larger-scale trough, an intensifying cyclone is forecast to move across Quebec, with a cold front extending southward into New England, and then southwestward across the Northeast, Mid Atlantic, OH/MS Valleys, and southern Plains. Farther west, a mid/upper-level cyclone initially off of the CA coast is forecast to move northeastward and approach the Pacific Northwest coast. ...New England to the Carolinas/southern Appalachians... In advance of the primary cold front, a weakening front and related precipitation will move across parts of New England into the Mid Atlantic from Saturday night into Sunday morning. Destabilization potential in the wake of the morning precipitation and cloudiness remains uncertain. With increasing low/midlevel flow in association with the approaching trough, deep-layer shear will become sufficient for organized convection and at least an isolated damaging-wind threat along/ahead of the approaching front, if sufficient destabilization can occur. Farther south, somewhat stronger destabilization will be possible into the southern Appalachians and Carolinas/Virginia, with scattered storm development expected during the afternoon/evening. Deep-layer flow will be weaker compared to areas to the north, but will still be sufficient for modestly organized storm clusters capable of at least isolated damaging wind during the afternoon and evening. ...Arizona... Sufficient moisture will again support thunderstorm development across terrain-favored areas of Arizona during the afternoon. There may be some potential for stronger outflow to spread into lower elevations within a weak easterly midlevel flow regime, though uncertainty is currently high regarding any more organized severe potential within this regime. ..Dean.. 08/30/2024 Read more

SPC 1930Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0223 PM CDT Fri Aug 30 2024 Valid 011200Z - 021200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM NEW ENGLAND INTO THE CAROLINAS/SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS VICINITY... ...SUMMARY... Strong/isolated severe storms capable of producing gusty/damaging winds will be possible from New England to the Carolinas Sunday. ...Synopsis... A deep upper-level trough will move across parts of eastern Canada into the Northeast and Mid Atlantic on Sunday. Within the larger-scale trough, an intensifying cyclone is forecast to move across Quebec, with a cold front extending southward into New England, and then southwestward across the Northeast, Mid Atlantic, OH/MS Valleys, and southern Plains. Farther west, a mid/upper-level cyclone initially off of the CA coast is forecast to move northeastward and approach the Pacific Northwest coast. ...New England to the Carolinas/southern Appalachians... In advance of the primary cold front, a weakening front and related precipitation will move across parts of New England into the Mid Atlantic from Saturday night into Sunday morning. Destabilization potential in the wake of the morning precipitation and cloudiness remains uncertain. With increasing low/midlevel flow in association with the approaching trough, deep-layer shear will become sufficient for organized convection and at least an isolated damaging-wind threat along/ahead of the approaching front, if sufficient destabilization can occur. Farther south, somewhat stronger destabilization will be possible into the southern Appalachians and Carolinas/Virginia, with scattered storm development expected during the afternoon/evening. Deep-layer flow will be weaker compared to areas to the north, but will still be sufficient for modestly organized storm clusters capable of at least isolated damaging wind during the afternoon and evening. ...Arizona... Sufficient moisture will again support thunderstorm development across terrain-favored areas of Arizona during the afternoon. There may be some potential for stronger outflow to spread into lower elevations within a weak easterly midlevel flow regime, though uncertainty is currently high regarding any more organized severe potential within this regime. ..Dean.. 08/30/2024 Read more

SPC 1930Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0223 PM CDT Fri Aug 30 2024 Valid 011200Z - 021200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM NEW ENGLAND INTO THE CAROLINAS/SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS VICINITY... ...SUMMARY... Strong/isolated severe storms capable of producing gusty/damaging winds will be possible from New England to the Carolinas Sunday. ...Synopsis... A deep upper-level trough will move across parts of eastern Canada into the Northeast and Mid Atlantic on Sunday. Within the larger-scale trough, an intensifying cyclone is forecast to move across Quebec, with a cold front extending southward into New England, and then southwestward across the Northeast, Mid Atlantic, OH/MS Valleys, and southern Plains. Farther west, a mid/upper-level cyclone initially off of the CA coast is forecast to move northeastward and approach the Pacific Northwest coast. ...New England to the Carolinas/southern Appalachians... In advance of the primary cold front, a weakening front and related precipitation will move across parts of New England into the Mid Atlantic from Saturday night into Sunday morning. Destabilization potential in the wake of the morning precipitation and cloudiness remains uncertain. With increasing low/midlevel flow in association with the approaching trough, deep-layer shear will become sufficient for organized convection and at least an isolated damaging-wind threat along/ahead of the approaching front, if sufficient destabilization can occur. Farther south, somewhat stronger destabilization will be possible into the southern Appalachians and Carolinas/Virginia, with scattered storm development expected during the afternoon/evening. Deep-layer flow will be weaker compared to areas to the north, but will still be sufficient for modestly organized storm clusters capable of at least isolated damaging wind during the afternoon and evening. ...Arizona... Sufficient moisture will again support thunderstorm development across terrain-favored areas of Arizona during the afternoon. There may be some potential for stronger outflow to spread into lower elevations within a weak easterly midlevel flow regime, though uncertainty is currently high regarding any more organized severe potential within this regime. ..Dean.. 08/30/2024 Read more

SPC 1930Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0223 PM CDT Fri Aug 30 2024 Valid 011200Z - 021200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM NEW ENGLAND INTO THE CAROLINAS/SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS VICINITY... ...SUMMARY... Strong/isolated severe storms capable of producing gusty/damaging winds will be possible from New England to the Carolinas Sunday. ...Synopsis... A deep upper-level trough will move across parts of eastern Canada into the Northeast and Mid Atlantic on Sunday. Within the larger-scale trough, an intensifying cyclone is forecast to move across Quebec, with a cold front extending southward into New England, and then southwestward across the Northeast, Mid Atlantic, OH/MS Valleys, and southern Plains. Farther west, a mid/upper-level cyclone initially off of the CA coast is forecast to move northeastward and approach the Pacific Northwest coast. ...New England to the Carolinas/southern Appalachians... In advance of the primary cold front, a weakening front and related precipitation will move across parts of New England into the Mid Atlantic from Saturday night into Sunday morning. Destabilization potential in the wake of the morning precipitation and cloudiness remains uncertain. With increasing low/midlevel flow in association with the approaching trough, deep-layer shear will become sufficient for organized convection and at least an isolated damaging-wind threat along/ahead of the approaching front, if sufficient destabilization can occur. Farther south, somewhat stronger destabilization will be possible into the southern Appalachians and Carolinas/Virginia, with scattered storm development expected during the afternoon/evening. Deep-layer flow will be weaker compared to areas to the north, but will still be sufficient for modestly organized storm clusters capable of at least isolated damaging wind during the afternoon and evening. ...Arizona... Sufficient moisture will again support thunderstorm development across terrain-favored areas of Arizona during the afternoon. There may be some potential for stronger outflow to spread into lower elevations within a weak easterly midlevel flow regime, though uncertainty is currently high regarding any more organized severe potential within this regime. ..Dean.. 08/30/2024 Read more

SPC 1930Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0223 PM CDT Fri Aug 30 2024 Valid 011200Z - 021200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM NEW ENGLAND INTO THE CAROLINAS/SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS VICINITY... ...SUMMARY... Strong/isolated severe storms capable of producing gusty/damaging winds will be possible from New England to the Carolinas Sunday. ...Synopsis... A deep upper-level trough will move across parts of eastern Canada into the Northeast and Mid Atlantic on Sunday. Within the larger-scale trough, an intensifying cyclone is forecast to move across Quebec, with a cold front extending southward into New England, and then southwestward across the Northeast, Mid Atlantic, OH/MS Valleys, and southern Plains. Farther west, a mid/upper-level cyclone initially off of the CA coast is forecast to move northeastward and approach the Pacific Northwest coast. ...New England to the Carolinas/southern Appalachians... In advance of the primary cold front, a weakening front and related precipitation will move across parts of New England into the Mid Atlantic from Saturday night into Sunday morning. Destabilization potential in the wake of the morning precipitation and cloudiness remains uncertain. With increasing low/midlevel flow in association with the approaching trough, deep-layer shear will become sufficient for organized convection and at least an isolated damaging-wind threat along/ahead of the approaching front, if sufficient destabilization can occur. Farther south, somewhat stronger destabilization will be possible into the southern Appalachians and Carolinas/Virginia, with scattered storm development expected during the afternoon/evening. Deep-layer flow will be weaker compared to areas to the north, but will still be sufficient for modestly organized storm clusters capable of at least isolated damaging wind during the afternoon and evening. ...Arizona... Sufficient moisture will again support thunderstorm development across terrain-favored areas of Arizona during the afternoon. There may be some potential for stronger outflow to spread into lower elevations within a weak easterly midlevel flow regime, though uncertainty is currently high regarding any more organized severe potential within this regime. ..Dean.. 08/30/2024 Read more

SPC 1930Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0223 PM CDT Fri Aug 30 2024 Valid 011200Z - 021200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM NEW ENGLAND INTO THE CAROLINAS/SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS VICINITY... ...SUMMARY... Strong/isolated severe storms capable of producing gusty/damaging winds will be possible from New England to the Carolinas Sunday. ...Synopsis... A deep upper-level trough will move across parts of eastern Canada into the Northeast and Mid Atlantic on Sunday. Within the larger-scale trough, an intensifying cyclone is forecast to move across Quebec, with a cold front extending southward into New England, and then southwestward across the Northeast, Mid Atlantic, OH/MS Valleys, and southern Plains. Farther west, a mid/upper-level cyclone initially off of the CA coast is forecast to move northeastward and approach the Pacific Northwest coast. ...New England to the Carolinas/southern Appalachians... In advance of the primary cold front, a weakening front and related precipitation will move across parts of New England into the Mid Atlantic from Saturday night into Sunday morning. Destabilization potential in the wake of the morning precipitation and cloudiness remains uncertain. With increasing low/midlevel flow in association with the approaching trough, deep-layer shear will become sufficient for organized convection and at least an isolated damaging-wind threat along/ahead of the approaching front, if sufficient destabilization can occur. Farther south, somewhat stronger destabilization will be possible into the southern Appalachians and Carolinas/Virginia, with scattered storm development expected during the afternoon/evening. Deep-layer flow will be weaker compared to areas to the north, but will still be sufficient for modestly organized storm clusters capable of at least isolated damaging wind during the afternoon and evening. ...Arizona... Sufficient moisture will again support thunderstorm development across terrain-favored areas of Arizona during the afternoon. There may be some potential for stronger outflow to spread into lower elevations within a weak easterly midlevel flow regime, though uncertainty is currently high regarding any more organized severe potential within this regime. ..Dean.. 08/30/2024 Read more

SPC 1930Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0223 PM CDT Fri Aug 30 2024 Valid 011200Z - 021200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM NEW ENGLAND INTO THE CAROLINAS/SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS VICINITY... ...SUMMARY... Strong/isolated severe storms capable of producing gusty/damaging winds will be possible from New England to the Carolinas Sunday. ...Synopsis... A deep upper-level trough will move across parts of eastern Canada into the Northeast and Mid Atlantic on Sunday. Within the larger-scale trough, an intensifying cyclone is forecast to move across Quebec, with a cold front extending southward into New England, and then southwestward across the Northeast, Mid Atlantic, OH/MS Valleys, and southern Plains. Farther west, a mid/upper-level cyclone initially off of the CA coast is forecast to move northeastward and approach the Pacific Northwest coast. ...New England to the Carolinas/southern Appalachians... In advance of the primary cold front, a weakening front and related precipitation will move across parts of New England into the Mid Atlantic from Saturday night into Sunday morning. Destabilization potential in the wake of the morning precipitation and cloudiness remains uncertain. With increasing low/midlevel flow in association with the approaching trough, deep-layer shear will become sufficient for organized convection and at least an isolated damaging-wind threat along/ahead of the approaching front, if sufficient destabilization can occur. Farther south, somewhat stronger destabilization will be possible into the southern Appalachians and Carolinas/Virginia, with scattered storm development expected during the afternoon/evening. Deep-layer flow will be weaker compared to areas to the north, but will still be sufficient for modestly organized storm clusters capable of at least isolated damaging wind during the afternoon and evening. ...Arizona... Sufficient moisture will again support thunderstorm development across terrain-favored areas of Arizona during the afternoon. There may be some potential for stronger outflow to spread into lower elevations within a weak easterly midlevel flow regime, though uncertainty is currently high regarding any more organized severe potential within this regime. ..Dean.. 08/30/2024 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1210 PM CDT Fri Aug 30 2024 Valid 311200Z - 011200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR PARTS OF CENTRAL APPALACHIANS INTO THE NORTHEAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms capable of producing damaging gusts are possible across portions of the central Appalachians into the Northeast on Saturday. A few strong/severe gusts may also occur over parts of the Ohio/Tennessee Valleys, and across northern Minnesota/Wisconsin into Upper Michigan. ...Synopsis... The large-scale pattern will remain relatively unchanged on Saturday, with a relatively deep upper-level trough extending from eastern Canada into the Northeast/Great Lakes, while an upper-level ridge remains in place over much of the West. A weakening cold front will move into parts of the Northeast and Ohio Valley during the afternoon and evening. A strong reinforcing shortwave trough and attendant cold front will move southeastward across parts of the northern Great Plains into the upper Great Lakes region. ...Parts of the Northeast into the OH/TN Valleys... Scattered thunderstorm development is expected during the afternoon along/ahead of the weakening cold front from parts of the Northeast into the OH/TN Valleys. In general, there will be some displacement between stronger low/midlevel flow to the northeast and stronger instability with southwestward extent. The best relative overlap of instability and modestly favorable flow/shear is expected from the central Appalachians into parts of the Northeast. Multiple loosely organized storm clusters will be possible across this area, with a threat of isolated to scattered damaging winds and localized hail. Deep-layer shear will be weaker into parts of the TN and lower OH Valleys. However, moderate to locally strong buoyancy and relatively large PW will support localized wet microbursts, and perhaps a couple of outflow-driven clusters, with isolated damaging-wind potential. ...Parts of northern MN/WI into upper MI... While buoyancy will likely remain weak due to limited moisture, strong large-scale ascent associated with the approaching shortwave trough will support potential for relatively low-topped convection near the cold front. Steepening low-level lapse rates and strengthening low-level flow will support a threat of at least isolated damaging gusts with the strongest convection. Relatively cold temperatures aloft will also support potential for small to near-severe hail, if deeper convection can develop. ...Arizona... Modestly increasing moisture will support isolated to widely scattered storms across parts of Arizona on Saturday. Initial development is expected over the usual terrain-favored areas. It remains uncertain if storm coverage and intensity will be sufficient for stronger outflow winds to spread into the lower elevations, though this cannot be ruled out within a weak easterly midlevel flow regime. ..Dean.. 08/30/2024 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1210 PM CDT Fri Aug 30 2024 Valid 311200Z - 011200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR PARTS OF CENTRAL APPALACHIANS INTO THE NORTHEAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms capable of producing damaging gusts are possible across portions of the central Appalachians into the Northeast on Saturday. A few strong/severe gusts may also occur over parts of the Ohio/Tennessee Valleys, and across northern Minnesota/Wisconsin into Upper Michigan. ...Synopsis... The large-scale pattern will remain relatively unchanged on Saturday, with a relatively deep upper-level trough extending from eastern Canada into the Northeast/Great Lakes, while an upper-level ridge remains in place over much of the West. A weakening cold front will move into parts of the Northeast and Ohio Valley during the afternoon and evening. A strong reinforcing shortwave trough and attendant cold front will move southeastward across parts of the northern Great Plains into the upper Great Lakes region. ...Parts of the Northeast into the OH/TN Valleys... Scattered thunderstorm development is expected during the afternoon along/ahead of the weakening cold front from parts of the Northeast into the OH/TN Valleys. In general, there will be some displacement between stronger low/midlevel flow to the northeast and stronger instability with southwestward extent. The best relative overlap of instability and modestly favorable flow/shear is expected from the central Appalachians into parts of the Northeast. Multiple loosely organized storm clusters will be possible across this area, with a threat of isolated to scattered damaging winds and localized hail. Deep-layer shear will be weaker into parts of the TN and lower OH Valleys. However, moderate to locally strong buoyancy and relatively large PW will support localized wet microbursts, and perhaps a couple of outflow-driven clusters, with isolated damaging-wind potential. ...Parts of northern MN/WI into upper MI... While buoyancy will likely remain weak due to limited moisture, strong large-scale ascent associated with the approaching shortwave trough will support potential for relatively low-topped convection near the cold front. Steepening low-level lapse rates and strengthening low-level flow will support a threat of at least isolated damaging gusts with the strongest convection. Relatively cold temperatures aloft will also support potential for small to near-severe hail, if deeper convection can develop. ...Arizona... Modestly increasing moisture will support isolated to widely scattered storms across parts of Arizona on Saturday. Initial development is expected over the usual terrain-favored areas. It remains uncertain if storm coverage and intensity will be sufficient for stronger outflow winds to spread into the lower elevations, though this cannot be ruled out within a weak easterly midlevel flow regime. ..Dean.. 08/30/2024 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1210 PM CDT Fri Aug 30 2024 Valid 311200Z - 011200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR PARTS OF CENTRAL APPALACHIANS INTO THE NORTHEAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms capable of producing damaging gusts are possible across portions of the central Appalachians into the Northeast on Saturday. A few strong/severe gusts may also occur over parts of the Ohio/Tennessee Valleys, and across northern Minnesota/Wisconsin into Upper Michigan. ...Synopsis... The large-scale pattern will remain relatively unchanged on Saturday, with a relatively deep upper-level trough extending from eastern Canada into the Northeast/Great Lakes, while an upper-level ridge remains in place over much of the West. A weakening cold front will move into parts of the Northeast and Ohio Valley during the afternoon and evening. A strong reinforcing shortwave trough and attendant cold front will move southeastward across parts of the northern Great Plains into the upper Great Lakes region. ...Parts of the Northeast into the OH/TN Valleys... Scattered thunderstorm development is expected during the afternoon along/ahead of the weakening cold front from parts of the Northeast into the OH/TN Valleys. In general, there will be some displacement between stronger low/midlevel flow to the northeast and stronger instability with southwestward extent. The best relative overlap of instability and modestly favorable flow/shear is expected from the central Appalachians into parts of the Northeast. Multiple loosely organized storm clusters will be possible across this area, with a threat of isolated to scattered damaging winds and localized hail. Deep-layer shear will be weaker into parts of the TN and lower OH Valleys. However, moderate to locally strong buoyancy and relatively large PW will support localized wet microbursts, and perhaps a couple of outflow-driven clusters, with isolated damaging-wind potential. ...Parts of northern MN/WI into upper MI... While buoyancy will likely remain weak due to limited moisture, strong large-scale ascent associated with the approaching shortwave trough will support potential for relatively low-topped convection near the cold front. Steepening low-level lapse rates and strengthening low-level flow will support a threat of at least isolated damaging gusts with the strongest convection. Relatively cold temperatures aloft will also support potential for small to near-severe hail, if deeper convection can develop. ...Arizona... Modestly increasing moisture will support isolated to widely scattered storms across parts of Arizona on Saturday. Initial development is expected over the usual terrain-favored areas. It remains uncertain if storm coverage and intensity will be sufficient for stronger outflow winds to spread into the lower elevations, though this cannot be ruled out within a weak easterly midlevel flow regime. ..Dean.. 08/30/2024 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1210 PM CDT Fri Aug 30 2024 Valid 311200Z - 011200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR PARTS OF CENTRAL APPALACHIANS INTO THE NORTHEAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms capable of producing damaging gusts are possible across portions of the central Appalachians into the Northeast on Saturday. A few strong/severe gusts may also occur over parts of the Ohio/Tennessee Valleys, and across northern Minnesota/Wisconsin into Upper Michigan. ...Synopsis... The large-scale pattern will remain relatively unchanged on Saturday, with a relatively deep upper-level trough extending from eastern Canada into the Northeast/Great Lakes, while an upper-level ridge remains in place over much of the West. A weakening cold front will move into parts of the Northeast and Ohio Valley during the afternoon and evening. A strong reinforcing shortwave trough and attendant cold front will move southeastward across parts of the northern Great Plains into the upper Great Lakes region. ...Parts of the Northeast into the OH/TN Valleys... Scattered thunderstorm development is expected during the afternoon along/ahead of the weakening cold front from parts of the Northeast into the OH/TN Valleys. In general, there will be some displacement between stronger low/midlevel flow to the northeast and stronger instability with southwestward extent. The best relative overlap of instability and modestly favorable flow/shear is expected from the central Appalachians into parts of the Northeast. Multiple loosely organized storm clusters will be possible across this area, with a threat of isolated to scattered damaging winds and localized hail. Deep-layer shear will be weaker into parts of the TN and lower OH Valleys. However, moderate to locally strong buoyancy and relatively large PW will support localized wet microbursts, and perhaps a couple of outflow-driven clusters, with isolated damaging-wind potential. ...Parts of northern MN/WI into upper MI... While buoyancy will likely remain weak due to limited moisture, strong large-scale ascent associated with the approaching shortwave trough will support potential for relatively low-topped convection near the cold front. Steepening low-level lapse rates and strengthening low-level flow will support a threat of at least isolated damaging gusts with the strongest convection. Relatively cold temperatures aloft will also support potential for small to near-severe hail, if deeper convection can develop. ...Arizona... Modestly increasing moisture will support isolated to widely scattered storms across parts of Arizona on Saturday. Initial development is expected over the usual terrain-favored areas. It remains uncertain if storm coverage and intensity will be sufficient for stronger outflow winds to spread into the lower elevations, though this cannot be ruled out within a weak easterly midlevel flow regime. ..Dean.. 08/30/2024 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1210 PM CDT Fri Aug 30 2024 Valid 311200Z - 011200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR PARTS OF CENTRAL APPALACHIANS INTO THE NORTHEAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms capable of producing damaging gusts are possible across portions of the central Appalachians into the Northeast on Saturday. A few strong/severe gusts may also occur over parts of the Ohio/Tennessee Valleys, and across northern Minnesota/Wisconsin into Upper Michigan. ...Synopsis... The large-scale pattern will remain relatively unchanged on Saturday, with a relatively deep upper-level trough extending from eastern Canada into the Northeast/Great Lakes, while an upper-level ridge remains in place over much of the West. A weakening cold front will move into parts of the Northeast and Ohio Valley during the afternoon and evening. A strong reinforcing shortwave trough and attendant cold front will move southeastward across parts of the northern Great Plains into the upper Great Lakes region. ...Parts of the Northeast into the OH/TN Valleys... Scattered thunderstorm development is expected during the afternoon along/ahead of the weakening cold front from parts of the Northeast into the OH/TN Valleys. In general, there will be some displacement between stronger low/midlevel flow to the northeast and stronger instability with southwestward extent. The best relative overlap of instability and modestly favorable flow/shear is expected from the central Appalachians into parts of the Northeast. Multiple loosely organized storm clusters will be possible across this area, with a threat of isolated to scattered damaging winds and localized hail. Deep-layer shear will be weaker into parts of the TN and lower OH Valleys. However, moderate to locally strong buoyancy and relatively large PW will support localized wet microbursts, and perhaps a couple of outflow-driven clusters, with isolated damaging-wind potential. ...Parts of northern MN/WI into upper MI... While buoyancy will likely remain weak due to limited moisture, strong large-scale ascent associated with the approaching shortwave trough will support potential for relatively low-topped convection near the cold front. Steepening low-level lapse rates and strengthening low-level flow will support a threat of at least isolated damaging gusts with the strongest convection. Relatively cold temperatures aloft will also support potential for small to near-severe hail, if deeper convection can develop. ...Arizona... Modestly increasing moisture will support isolated to widely scattered storms across parts of Arizona on Saturday. Initial development is expected over the usual terrain-favored areas. It remains uncertain if storm coverage and intensity will be sufficient for stronger outflow winds to spread into the lower elevations, though this cannot be ruled out within a weak easterly midlevel flow regime. ..Dean.. 08/30/2024 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1210 PM CDT Fri Aug 30 2024 Valid 311200Z - 011200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR PARTS OF CENTRAL APPALACHIANS INTO THE NORTHEAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms capable of producing damaging gusts are possible across portions of the central Appalachians into the Northeast on Saturday. A few strong/severe gusts may also occur over parts of the Ohio/Tennessee Valleys, and across northern Minnesota/Wisconsin into Upper Michigan. ...Synopsis... The large-scale pattern will remain relatively unchanged on Saturday, with a relatively deep upper-level trough extending from eastern Canada into the Northeast/Great Lakes, while an upper-level ridge remains in place over much of the West. A weakening cold front will move into parts of the Northeast and Ohio Valley during the afternoon and evening. A strong reinforcing shortwave trough and attendant cold front will move southeastward across parts of the northern Great Plains into the upper Great Lakes region. ...Parts of the Northeast into the OH/TN Valleys... Scattered thunderstorm development is expected during the afternoon along/ahead of the weakening cold front from parts of the Northeast into the OH/TN Valleys. In general, there will be some displacement between stronger low/midlevel flow to the northeast and stronger instability with southwestward extent. The best relative overlap of instability and modestly favorable flow/shear is expected from the central Appalachians into parts of the Northeast. Multiple loosely organized storm clusters will be possible across this area, with a threat of isolated to scattered damaging winds and localized hail. Deep-layer shear will be weaker into parts of the TN and lower OH Valleys. However, moderate to locally strong buoyancy and relatively large PW will support localized wet microbursts, and perhaps a couple of outflow-driven clusters, with isolated damaging-wind potential. ...Parts of northern MN/WI into upper MI... While buoyancy will likely remain weak due to limited moisture, strong large-scale ascent associated with the approaching shortwave trough will support potential for relatively low-topped convection near the cold front. Steepening low-level lapse rates and strengthening low-level flow will support a threat of at least isolated damaging gusts with the strongest convection. Relatively cold temperatures aloft will also support potential for small to near-severe hail, if deeper convection can develop. ...Arizona... Modestly increasing moisture will support isolated to widely scattered storms across parts of Arizona on Saturday. Initial development is expected over the usual terrain-favored areas. It remains uncertain if storm coverage and intensity will be sufficient for stronger outflow winds to spread into the lower elevations, though this cannot be ruled out within a weak easterly midlevel flow regime. ..Dean.. 08/30/2024 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1210 PM CDT Fri Aug 30 2024 Valid 311200Z - 011200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR PARTS OF CENTRAL APPALACHIANS INTO THE NORTHEAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms capable of producing damaging gusts are possible across portions of the central Appalachians into the Northeast on Saturday. A few strong/severe gusts may also occur over parts of the Ohio/Tennessee Valleys, and across northern Minnesota/Wisconsin into Upper Michigan. ...Synopsis... The large-scale pattern will remain relatively unchanged on Saturday, with a relatively deep upper-level trough extending from eastern Canada into the Northeast/Great Lakes, while an upper-level ridge remains in place over much of the West. A weakening cold front will move into parts of the Northeast and Ohio Valley during the afternoon and evening. A strong reinforcing shortwave trough and attendant cold front will move southeastward across parts of the northern Great Plains into the upper Great Lakes region. ...Parts of the Northeast into the OH/TN Valleys... Scattered thunderstorm development is expected during the afternoon along/ahead of the weakening cold front from parts of the Northeast into the OH/TN Valleys. In general, there will be some displacement between stronger low/midlevel flow to the northeast and stronger instability with southwestward extent. The best relative overlap of instability and modestly favorable flow/shear is expected from the central Appalachians into parts of the Northeast. Multiple loosely organized storm clusters will be possible across this area, with a threat of isolated to scattered damaging winds and localized hail. Deep-layer shear will be weaker into parts of the TN and lower OH Valleys. However, moderate to locally strong buoyancy and relatively large PW will support localized wet microbursts, and perhaps a couple of outflow-driven clusters, with isolated damaging-wind potential. ...Parts of northern MN/WI into upper MI... While buoyancy will likely remain weak due to limited moisture, strong large-scale ascent associated with the approaching shortwave trough will support potential for relatively low-topped convection near the cold front. Steepening low-level lapse rates and strengthening low-level flow will support a threat of at least isolated damaging gusts with the strongest convection. Relatively cold temperatures aloft will also support potential for small to near-severe hail, if deeper convection can develop. ...Arizona... Modestly increasing moisture will support isolated to widely scattered storms across parts of Arizona on Saturday. Initial development is expected over the usual terrain-favored areas. It remains uncertain if storm coverage and intensity will be sufficient for stronger outflow winds to spread into the lower elevations, though this cannot be ruled out within a weak easterly midlevel flow regime. ..Dean.. 08/30/2024 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1210 PM CDT Fri Aug 30 2024 Valid 311200Z - 011200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR PARTS OF CENTRAL APPALACHIANS INTO THE NORTHEAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms capable of producing damaging gusts are possible across portions of the central Appalachians into the Northeast on Saturday. A few strong/severe gusts may also occur over parts of the Ohio/Tennessee Valleys, and across northern Minnesota/Wisconsin into Upper Michigan. ...Synopsis... The large-scale pattern will remain relatively unchanged on Saturday, with a relatively deep upper-level trough extending from eastern Canada into the Northeast/Great Lakes, while an upper-level ridge remains in place over much of the West. A weakening cold front will move into parts of the Northeast and Ohio Valley during the afternoon and evening. A strong reinforcing shortwave trough and attendant cold front will move southeastward across parts of the northern Great Plains into the upper Great Lakes region. ...Parts of the Northeast into the OH/TN Valleys... Scattered thunderstorm development is expected during the afternoon along/ahead of the weakening cold front from parts of the Northeast into the OH/TN Valleys. In general, there will be some displacement between stronger low/midlevel flow to the northeast and stronger instability with southwestward extent. The best relative overlap of instability and modestly favorable flow/shear is expected from the central Appalachians into parts of the Northeast. Multiple loosely organized storm clusters will be possible across this area, with a threat of isolated to scattered damaging winds and localized hail. Deep-layer shear will be weaker into parts of the TN and lower OH Valleys. However, moderate to locally strong buoyancy and relatively large PW will support localized wet microbursts, and perhaps a couple of outflow-driven clusters, with isolated damaging-wind potential. ...Parts of northern MN/WI into upper MI... While buoyancy will likely remain weak due to limited moisture, strong large-scale ascent associated with the approaching shortwave trough will support potential for relatively low-topped convection near the cold front. Steepening low-level lapse rates and strengthening low-level flow will support a threat of at least isolated damaging gusts with the strongest convection. Relatively cold temperatures aloft will also support potential for small to near-severe hail, if deeper convection can develop. ...Arizona... Modestly increasing moisture will support isolated to widely scattered storms across parts of Arizona on Saturday. Initial development is expected over the usual terrain-favored areas. It remains uncertain if storm coverage and intensity will be sufficient for stronger outflow winds to spread into the lower elevations, though this cannot be ruled out within a weak easterly midlevel flow regime. ..Dean.. 08/30/2024 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1210 PM CDT Fri Aug 30 2024 Valid 311200Z - 011200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR PARTS OF CENTRAL APPALACHIANS INTO THE NORTHEAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms capable of producing damaging gusts are possible across portions of the central Appalachians into the Northeast on Saturday. A few strong/severe gusts may also occur over parts of the Ohio/Tennessee Valleys, and across northern Minnesota/Wisconsin into Upper Michigan. ...Synopsis... The large-scale pattern will remain relatively unchanged on Saturday, with a relatively deep upper-level trough extending from eastern Canada into the Northeast/Great Lakes, while an upper-level ridge remains in place over much of the West. A weakening cold front will move into parts of the Northeast and Ohio Valley during the afternoon and evening. A strong reinforcing shortwave trough and attendant cold front will move southeastward across parts of the northern Great Plains into the upper Great Lakes region. ...Parts of the Northeast into the OH/TN Valleys... Scattered thunderstorm development is expected during the afternoon along/ahead of the weakening cold front from parts of the Northeast into the OH/TN Valleys. In general, there will be some displacement between stronger low/midlevel flow to the northeast and stronger instability with southwestward extent. The best relative overlap of instability and modestly favorable flow/shear is expected from the central Appalachians into parts of the Northeast. Multiple loosely organized storm clusters will be possible across this area, with a threat of isolated to scattered damaging winds and localized hail. Deep-layer shear will be weaker into parts of the TN and lower OH Valleys. However, moderate to locally strong buoyancy and relatively large PW will support localized wet microbursts, and perhaps a couple of outflow-driven clusters, with isolated damaging-wind potential. ...Parts of northern MN/WI into upper MI... While buoyancy will likely remain weak due to limited moisture, strong large-scale ascent associated with the approaching shortwave trough will support potential for relatively low-topped convection near the cold front. Steepening low-level lapse rates and strengthening low-level flow will support a threat of at least isolated damaging gusts with the strongest convection. Relatively cold temperatures aloft will also support potential for small to near-severe hail, if deeper convection can develop. ...Arizona... Modestly increasing moisture will support isolated to widely scattered storms across parts of Arizona on Saturday. Initial development is expected over the usual terrain-favored areas. It remains uncertain if storm coverage and intensity will be sufficient for stronger outflow winds to spread into the lower elevations, though this cannot be ruled out within a weak easterly midlevel flow regime. ..Dean.. 08/30/2024 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1210 PM CDT Fri Aug 30 2024 Valid 311200Z - 011200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR PARTS OF CENTRAL APPALACHIANS INTO THE NORTHEAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms capable of producing damaging gusts are possible across portions of the central Appalachians into the Northeast on Saturday. A few strong/severe gusts may also occur over parts of the Ohio/Tennessee Valleys, and across northern Minnesota/Wisconsin into Upper Michigan. ...Synopsis... The large-scale pattern will remain relatively unchanged on Saturday, with a relatively deep upper-level trough extending from eastern Canada into the Northeast/Great Lakes, while an upper-level ridge remains in place over much of the West. A weakening cold front will move into parts of the Northeast and Ohio Valley during the afternoon and evening. A strong reinforcing shortwave trough and attendant cold front will move southeastward across parts of the northern Great Plains into the upper Great Lakes region. ...Parts of the Northeast into the OH/TN Valleys... Scattered thunderstorm development is expected during the afternoon along/ahead of the weakening cold front from parts of the Northeast into the OH/TN Valleys. In general, there will be some displacement between stronger low/midlevel flow to the northeast and stronger instability with southwestward extent. The best relative overlap of instability and modestly favorable flow/shear is expected from the central Appalachians into parts of the Northeast. Multiple loosely organized storm clusters will be possible across this area, with a threat of isolated to scattered damaging winds and localized hail. Deep-layer shear will be weaker into parts of the TN and lower OH Valleys. However, moderate to locally strong buoyancy and relatively large PW will support localized wet microbursts, and perhaps a couple of outflow-driven clusters, with isolated damaging-wind potential. ...Parts of northern MN/WI into upper MI... While buoyancy will likely remain weak due to limited moisture, strong large-scale ascent associated with the approaching shortwave trough will support potential for relatively low-topped convection near the cold front. Steepening low-level lapse rates and strengthening low-level flow will support a threat of at least isolated damaging gusts with the strongest convection. Relatively cold temperatures aloft will also support potential for small to near-severe hail, if deeper convection can develop. ...Arizona... Modestly increasing moisture will support isolated to widely scattered storms across parts of Arizona on Saturday. Initial development is expected over the usual terrain-favored areas. It remains uncertain if storm coverage and intensity will be sufficient for stronger outflow winds to spread into the lower elevations, though this cannot be ruled out within a weak easterly midlevel flow regime. ..Dean.. 08/30/2024 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1210 PM CDT Fri Aug 30 2024 Valid 311200Z - 011200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR PARTS OF CENTRAL APPALACHIANS INTO THE NORTHEAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms capable of producing damaging gusts are possible across portions of the central Appalachians into the Northeast on Saturday. A few strong/severe gusts may also occur over parts of the Ohio/Tennessee Valleys, and across northern Minnesota/Wisconsin into Upper Michigan. ...Synopsis... The large-scale pattern will remain relatively unchanged on Saturday, with a relatively deep upper-level trough extending from eastern Canada into the Northeast/Great Lakes, while an upper-level ridge remains in place over much of the West. A weakening cold front will move into parts of the Northeast and Ohio Valley during the afternoon and evening. A strong reinforcing shortwave trough and attendant cold front will move southeastward across parts of the northern Great Plains into the upper Great Lakes region. ...Parts of the Northeast into the OH/TN Valleys... Scattered thunderstorm development is expected during the afternoon along/ahead of the weakening cold front from parts of the Northeast into the OH/TN Valleys. In general, there will be some displacement between stronger low/midlevel flow to the northeast and stronger instability with southwestward extent. The best relative overlap of instability and modestly favorable flow/shear is expected from the central Appalachians into parts of the Northeast. Multiple loosely organized storm clusters will be possible across this area, with a threat of isolated to scattered damaging winds and localized hail. Deep-layer shear will be weaker into parts of the TN and lower OH Valleys. However, moderate to locally strong buoyancy and relatively large PW will support localized wet microbursts, and perhaps a couple of outflow-driven clusters, with isolated damaging-wind potential. ...Parts of northern MN/WI into upper MI... While buoyancy will likely remain weak due to limited moisture, strong large-scale ascent associated with the approaching shortwave trough will support potential for relatively low-topped convection near the cold front. Steepening low-level lapse rates and strengthening low-level flow will support a threat of at least isolated damaging gusts with the strongest convection. Relatively cold temperatures aloft will also support potential for small to near-severe hail, if deeper convection can develop. ...Arizona... Modestly increasing moisture will support isolated to widely scattered storms across parts of Arizona on Saturday. Initial development is expected over the usual terrain-favored areas. It remains uncertain if storm coverage and intensity will be sufficient for stronger outflow winds to spread into the lower elevations, though this cannot be ruled out within a weak easterly midlevel flow regime. ..Dean.. 08/30/2024 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1210 PM CDT Fri Aug 30 2024 Valid 311200Z - 011200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR PARTS OF CENTRAL APPALACHIANS INTO THE NORTHEAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms capable of producing damaging gusts are possible across portions of the central Appalachians into the Northeast on Saturday. A few strong/severe gusts may also occur over parts of the Ohio/Tennessee Valleys, and across northern Minnesota/Wisconsin into Upper Michigan. ...Synopsis... The large-scale pattern will remain relatively unchanged on Saturday, with a relatively deep upper-level trough extending from eastern Canada into the Northeast/Great Lakes, while an upper-level ridge remains in place over much of the West. A weakening cold front will move into parts of the Northeast and Ohio Valley during the afternoon and evening. A strong reinforcing shortwave trough and attendant cold front will move southeastward across parts of the northern Great Plains into the upper Great Lakes region. ...Parts of the Northeast into the OH/TN Valleys... Scattered thunderstorm development is expected during the afternoon along/ahead of the weakening cold front from parts of the Northeast into the OH/TN Valleys. In general, there will be some displacement between stronger low/midlevel flow to the northeast and stronger instability with southwestward extent. The best relative overlap of instability and modestly favorable flow/shear is expected from the central Appalachians into parts of the Northeast. Multiple loosely organized storm clusters will be possible across this area, with a threat of isolated to scattered damaging winds and localized hail. Deep-layer shear will be weaker into parts of the TN and lower OH Valleys. However, moderate to locally strong buoyancy and relatively large PW will support localized wet microbursts, and perhaps a couple of outflow-driven clusters, with isolated damaging-wind potential. ...Parts of northern MN/WI into upper MI... While buoyancy will likely remain weak due to limited moisture, strong large-scale ascent associated with the approaching shortwave trough will support potential for relatively low-topped convection near the cold front. Steepening low-level lapse rates and strengthening low-level flow will support a threat of at least isolated damaging gusts with the strongest convection. Relatively cold temperatures aloft will also support potential for small to near-severe hail, if deeper convection can develop. ...Arizona... Modestly increasing moisture will support isolated to widely scattered storms across parts of Arizona on Saturday. Initial development is expected over the usual terrain-favored areas. It remains uncertain if storm coverage and intensity will be sufficient for stronger outflow winds to spread into the lower elevations, though this cannot be ruled out within a weak easterly midlevel flow regime. ..Dean.. 08/30/2024 Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1153 AM CDT Fri Aug 30 2024 Valid 301700Z - 311200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... No changes are needed to the D1 Fire Weather Outlook. See previous discussion below for more information. ..Thornton.. 08/30/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1235 AM CDT Fri Aug 30 2024/ ...Synopsis... Fire weather concerns are expected to remain limited for today across the country. Dry conditions will persist across much of the Great Basin and into parts of the Pacific Northwest and central Rockies for this afternoon with RH minimums once again falling into the teens and single digits. Upper-level ridging over the western CONUS will promote mostly clear skies but weak synoptic/gradient winds that should mitigate fire weather concerns. Thunderstorm activity along the lower CO River Valley on Thursday (yesterday) resulted in a mix of wet and dry thunderstorms based on sporadic rainfall measurements and MRMS QPE. A similar mix of wet/dry thunderstorms is expected again today across far southeast NV into western AZ as weak mid-level ascent overspreads the fringe of a modest monsoonal moisture plume. Latest fuel guidance suggests lightning ignition efficiency/fuel dryness gradually increases from far western AZ into southern NV, but the spatial coverage of sufficiently dry fuel with appreciable dry lightning threat appears too limited to introduce highlights. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more