Severe Storms

SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0750 PM CDT Fri Aug 30 2024 Valid 310100Z - 311200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE SOUTHERN GREAT LAKES SOUTHWESTWARD INTO THE MID MISSISSIPPI VALLEY... ...SUMMARY... Isolated severe storms, with marginally severe wind gusts and hail will be possible this evening from southeast Lower Michigan southwestward into the mid Mississippi Valley. ...Southern Great Lakes/Mid Mississippi Valley... The latest mosaic water vapor imagery shows an upper-level trough over the western Great Lakes extending southward into the mid Mississippi Valley. An associated cold front is analyzed from southeast Lower Michigan southwestward to near St. Louis, Missouri. Scattered thunderstorms are ongoing along and near the front. Surface dewpoints near and ahead of the front are in the upper 60s and lower 70s F, and the RAP has MLCAPE in the 1200 to 2500 J/k/g range. In addition, regional WSR-88D VWPs near the front have 0-6 km shear ranging from near 20 knot at St. Louis to around 30 knots at Detroit. This environment, combined with steep low-level lapse rates near 7 C/km, should be enough for a marginally severe wind gusts for a couple more hours this evening. Hail could also occur within the cores of the stronger multicells. ..Broyles.. 08/31/2024 Read more

SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0750 PM CDT Fri Aug 30 2024 Valid 310100Z - 311200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE SOUTHERN GREAT LAKES SOUTHWESTWARD INTO THE MID MISSISSIPPI VALLEY... ...SUMMARY... Isolated severe storms, with marginally severe wind gusts and hail will be possible this evening from southeast Lower Michigan southwestward into the mid Mississippi Valley. ...Southern Great Lakes/Mid Mississippi Valley... The latest mosaic water vapor imagery shows an upper-level trough over the western Great Lakes extending southward into the mid Mississippi Valley. An associated cold front is analyzed from southeast Lower Michigan southwestward to near St. Louis, Missouri. Scattered thunderstorms are ongoing along and near the front. Surface dewpoints near and ahead of the front are in the upper 60s and lower 70s F, and the RAP has MLCAPE in the 1200 to 2500 J/k/g range. In addition, regional WSR-88D VWPs near the front have 0-6 km shear ranging from near 20 knot at St. Louis to around 30 knots at Detroit. This environment, combined with steep low-level lapse rates near 7 C/km, should be enough for a marginally severe wind gusts for a couple more hours this evening. Hail could also occur within the cores of the stronger multicells. ..Broyles.. 08/31/2024 Read more

MD 2038 CONCERNING SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 665... FOR SOUTHEAST LOWER MICHIGAN
Mesoscale Discussion 2038 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0551 PM CDT Fri Aug 30 2024 Areas affected...Southeast lower Michigan Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 665... Valid 302251Z - 310045Z The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 665 continues. SUMMARY...The threat for severe wind and hail should persist for the next 2 to 2.5 hours across southeastern Lower Michigan. The greatest severe wind risk may reside along and north of I-65 during this period. DISCUSSION...Convection continues to develop along a cold front across lower MI. Overall intensification has been somewhat gradual, likely owing to somewhat meager large-scale ascent over the region. However, KDTX VWP observations have shown a slight strengthening of mid-level flow over the past 30-60 minutes with 0-6 km bulk shear values increasing closer to 30 knots at times. Additionally, GOES 1-minute imagery shows several strong updraft pulses along the line, indicating that the potential for organized convection persists. Confidence in the coverage of robust convection remains limited given the aforementioned weak forcing for ascent and recent convective trends, but a few severe storms with an attendant hail/severe wind risk remain possible as the cold front continues to push east (especially along and north of I-65 where convection is comparatively more intense based on IR and lightning trends). Latest timing guidance suggests that this activity should exit southeastern lower MI within the next 2-3 hours. ..Moore.. 08/30/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...DTX...IWX...GRR... LAT...LON 41898480 42888362 43798304 44058279 44018259 43488235 42998239 42628252 42338274 42068302 41888326 41788357 41738396 41798454 41808474 41898480 Read more

WW 0665 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 665 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 45 W TOL TO ARB TO 15 E FNT TO 10 S OSC. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION SEE MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2038 ..MOORE..08/30/24 ATTN...WFO...APX...DTX...IWX...GRR... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 665 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS MIC063-087-091-099-115-125-147-151-157-163-310040- MI . MICHIGAN COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE HURON LAPEER LENAWEE MACOMB MONROE OAKLAND ST. CLAIR SANILAC TUSCOLA WAYNE LCZ422-423-460-LEZ444-LHZ441-442-443-462-463-464-310040- CW . ADJACENT COASTAL WATERS INCLUDED ARE ST. CLAIR RIVER DETROIT RIVER LAKE ST. CLAIR OPEN LAKE (U.S. PORTION) Read more

WW 665 SEVERE TSTM MI LE LH 302045Z - 310100Z
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED Severe Thunderstorm Watch Number 665 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 445 PM EDT Fri Aug 30 2024 The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a * Severe Thunderstorm Watch for portions of Southeast Lower Michigan Lake Erie Lake Huron * Effective this Friday afternoon and evening from 445 PM until 900 PM EDT. * Primary threats include... Scattered damaging wind gusts to 70 mph possible Isolated large hail events to 1.5 inches in diameter possible A tornado or two possible SUMMARY...Thunderstorms are expected to intensify across the watch area through early evening, posing a risk for strong/damaging wind gusts and isolated instances of large hail. A tornado or two will also be possible. The severe thunderstorm watch area is approximately along and 60 statute miles east and west of a line from 30 miles northwest of Bad Axe MI to 20 miles west southwest of Ann Arbor MI. For a complete depiction of the watch see the associated watch outline update (WOUS64 KWNS WOU5). PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... REMEMBER...A Severe Thunderstorm Watch means conditions are favorable for severe thunderstorms in and close to the watch area. Persons in these areas should be on the lookout for threatening weather conditions and listen for later statements and possible warnings. Severe thunderstorms can and occasionally do produce tornadoes. && AVIATION...A few severe thunderstorms with hail surface and aloft to 1.5 inches. Extreme turbulence and surface wind gusts to 60 knots. A few cumulonimbi with maximum tops to 500. Mean storm motion vector 26025. ...Bunting Read more

MD 2038 CONCERNING SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 665... FOR SOUTHEAST LOWER MICHIGAN
Mesoscale Discussion 2038 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0551 PM CDT Fri Aug 30 2024 Areas affected...Southeast lower Michigan Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 665... Valid 302251Z - 310045Z The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 665 continues. SUMMARY...The threat for severe wind and hail should persist for the next 2 to 2.5 hours across southeastern Lower Michigan. The greatest severe wind risk may reside along and north of I-65 during this period. DISCUSSION...Convection continues to develop along a cold front across lower MI. Overall intensification has been somewhat gradual, likely owing to somewhat meager large-scale ascent over the region. However, KDTX VWP observations have shown a slight strengthening of mid-level flow over the past 30-60 minutes with 0-6 km bulk shear values increasing closer to 30 knots at times. Additionally, GOES 1-minute imagery shows several strong updraft pulses along the line, indicating that the potential for organized convection persists. Confidence in the coverage of robust convection remains limited given the aforementioned weak forcing for ascent and recent convective trends, but a few severe storms with an attendant hail/severe wind risk remain possible as the cold front continues to push east (especially along and north of I-65 where convection is comparatively more intense based on IR and lightning trends). Latest timing guidance suggests that this activity should exit southeastern lower MI within the next 2-3 hours. ..Moore.. 08/30/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...DTX...IWX...GRR... LAT...LON 41898480 42888362 43798304 44058279 44018259 43488235 42998239 42628252 42338274 42068302 41888326 41788357 41738396 41798454 41808474 41898480 Read more

WW 0665 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 665 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 45 W TOL TO ARB TO 15 E FNT TO 10 S OSC. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION SEE MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2038 ..MOORE..08/30/24 ATTN...WFO...APX...DTX...IWX...GRR... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 665 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS MIC063-087-091-099-115-125-147-151-157-163-310040- MI . MICHIGAN COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE HURON LAPEER LENAWEE MACOMB MONROE OAKLAND ST. CLAIR SANILAC TUSCOLA WAYNE LCZ422-423-460-LEZ444-LHZ441-442-443-462-463-464-310040- CW . ADJACENT COASTAL WATERS INCLUDED ARE ST. CLAIR RIVER DETROIT RIVER LAKE ST. CLAIR OPEN LAKE (U.S. PORTION) Read more

WW 665 SEVERE TSTM MI LE LH 302045Z - 310100Z
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED Severe Thunderstorm Watch Number 665 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 445 PM EDT Fri Aug 30 2024 The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a * Severe Thunderstorm Watch for portions of Southeast Lower Michigan Lake Erie Lake Huron * Effective this Friday afternoon and evening from 445 PM until 900 PM EDT. * Primary threats include... Scattered damaging wind gusts to 70 mph possible Isolated large hail events to 1.5 inches in diameter possible A tornado or two possible SUMMARY...Thunderstorms are expected to intensify across the watch area through early evening, posing a risk for strong/damaging wind gusts and isolated instances of large hail. A tornado or two will also be possible. The severe thunderstorm watch area is approximately along and 60 statute miles east and west of a line from 30 miles northwest of Bad Axe MI to 20 miles west southwest of Ann Arbor MI. For a complete depiction of the watch see the associated watch outline update (WOUS64 KWNS WOU5). PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... REMEMBER...A Severe Thunderstorm Watch means conditions are favorable for severe thunderstorms in and close to the watch area. Persons in these areas should be on the lookout for threatening weather conditions and listen for later statements and possible warnings. Severe thunderstorms can and occasionally do produce tornadoes. && AVIATION...A few severe thunderstorms with hail surface and aloft to 1.5 inches. Extreme turbulence and surface wind gusts to 60 knots. A few cumulonimbi with maximum tops to 500. Mean storm motion vector 26025. ...Bunting Read more

WW 0665 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 665 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 25 ESE SBN TO 15 NNE JXN TO 15 WNW FNT TO 20 WSW OSC. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION SEE MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2038 ..MOORE..08/30/24 ATTN...WFO...APX...DTX...IWX...GRR... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 665 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS MIC023-049-059-063-075-087-091-093-099-115-125-147-151-157-161- 163-302340- MI . MICHIGAN COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE BRANCH GENESEE HILLSDALE HURON JACKSON LAPEER LENAWEE LIVINGSTON MACOMB MONROE OAKLAND ST. CLAIR SANILAC TUSCOLA WASHTENAW WAYNE LCZ422-423-460-LEZ444-LHZ421-422-441-442-443-462-463-464- 302340- CW . ADJACENT COASTAL WATERS INCLUDED ARE ST. CLAIR RIVER Read more

MD 2037 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY FOR CENTRAL ILLINOIS INTO INDIANA
Mesoscale Discussion 2037 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0341 PM CDT Fri Aug 30 2024 Areas affected...central Illinois into Indiana Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely Valid 302041Z - 302315Z Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent SUMMARY...Scattered storms may produce brief hail or localized strong gusts over the next several hours. DISCUSSION...Conditions continue to destabilize ahead of a cold front draped across MO, IL, and into northern IN. Scattered storms have been ongoing over much of the St. Louis area, with sporadic strong cores noted on radar. Given the increasing convergence along the front, unstable and moist air mass, and continued heating, additional storms are likely to develop this afternoon. Shear is weak across the region, well south of the positive-tilt upper trough to the north. Area VWPs indicate little shear, but modest westerlies do exist across northern areas toward northern IN. Capping is non-existent due to cool 700 mb temperatures, and this will make it easy for storms to increasing in coverage and likely overturn the regional air mass through evening. While relatively disorganized/multicellular, marginal hail may occur in the pulsing updrafts, with locally strong downdrafts. ..Jewell/Bunting.. 08/30/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...IWX...IND...PAH...LOT...ILX...LSX... LAT...LON 39389089 39798998 40338901 41238723 41758632 41688596 41388570 40758569 39828671 38918825 38048975 38169073 38709111 39389089 Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0457 PM CDT Fri Aug 30 2024 Valid 011200Z - 071200Z A midlevel low will move across northern CA/southwest OR and continue east-northeastward across OR into ID D3/Sun through D4/Monday. Ahead of this feature, midlevel moisture will increase, with potential for isolated dry thunderstorms across the Pacific Northwest extending into the Northern Rockies. In addition to thunderstorm chances, a mid-level speed max aloft will bring an increase in surface winds D4/Monday to D5/Tuesday overlapping very dry conditions antecedent conditions across portions of the Great Basin. ...Dry/Windy... Surface winds will increase across northern Nevada into northeastern California and southern Oregon on D4/Monday as a speed max moves through the base of the midlevel low. Sustained west southwesterly winds at 15-20 mph will overlap afternoon relative humidity reductions to 10-15 percent. Fuels within this region are critically dry and support inclusion of 40% Critical probabilities. The best overlap of fuels and windy/dry conditions will be across northwestern Nevada into far northeastern California, where 70% probabilities were included. This area may need to be expanded with subsequent outlooks. Dry and windy conditions will continue eastward into portions of southern Idaho and the Northern Rockies on D5/Tuesday. The highest confidence for potential Critical conditions will be across the Snake River Plain, where a 40 percent delineation was added with this outlook. ...Isolated Dry Thunderstorms... Isolated dry thunderstorms will be possible across south/central OR on D3/Sunday, with increasing potential into the overnight hours, as midlevel moisture/instability increases ahead of the midlevel low. A mix of dry/wet thunderstorms will continue spreading/expanding eastward across eastern OR into ID. While fuel receptiveness across the region is uncertain, several days of boundary-layer drying (beneath the large-scale ridge) preceding this thunderstorm event will pose at least some risk of lightning-induced ignitions. Thunderstorm potential will continue across the northern Rockies on Day 5/Tuesday, though gradually increasing moisture and precipitation cast uncertainty on the overall fire-weather risk which precluding Isolated Dry Thunderstorm probabilities. ..Thornton.. 08/30/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0457 PM CDT Fri Aug 30 2024 Valid 011200Z - 071200Z A midlevel low will move across northern CA/southwest OR and continue east-northeastward across OR into ID D3/Sun through D4/Monday. Ahead of this feature, midlevel moisture will increase, with potential for isolated dry thunderstorms across the Pacific Northwest extending into the Northern Rockies. In addition to thunderstorm chances, a mid-level speed max aloft will bring an increase in surface winds D4/Monday to D5/Tuesday overlapping very dry conditions antecedent conditions across portions of the Great Basin. ...Dry/Windy... Surface winds will increase across northern Nevada into northeastern California and southern Oregon on D4/Monday as a speed max moves through the base of the midlevel low. Sustained west southwesterly winds at 15-20 mph will overlap afternoon relative humidity reductions to 10-15 percent. Fuels within this region are critically dry and support inclusion of 40% Critical probabilities. The best overlap of fuels and windy/dry conditions will be across northwestern Nevada into far northeastern California, where 70% probabilities were included. This area may need to be expanded with subsequent outlooks. Dry and windy conditions will continue eastward into portions of southern Idaho and the Northern Rockies on D5/Tuesday. The highest confidence for potential Critical conditions will be across the Snake River Plain, where a 40 percent delineation was added with this outlook. ...Isolated Dry Thunderstorms... Isolated dry thunderstorms will be possible across south/central OR on D3/Sunday, with increasing potential into the overnight hours, as midlevel moisture/instability increases ahead of the midlevel low. A mix of dry/wet thunderstorms will continue spreading/expanding eastward across eastern OR into ID. While fuel receptiveness across the region is uncertain, several days of boundary-layer drying (beneath the large-scale ridge) preceding this thunderstorm event will pose at least some risk of lightning-induced ignitions. Thunderstorm potential will continue across the northern Rockies on Day 5/Tuesday, though gradually increasing moisture and precipitation cast uncertainty on the overall fire-weather risk which precluding Isolated Dry Thunderstorm probabilities. ..Thornton.. 08/30/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0457 PM CDT Fri Aug 30 2024 Valid 011200Z - 071200Z A midlevel low will move across northern CA/southwest OR and continue east-northeastward across OR into ID D3/Sun through D4/Monday. Ahead of this feature, midlevel moisture will increase, with potential for isolated dry thunderstorms across the Pacific Northwest extending into the Northern Rockies. In addition to thunderstorm chances, a mid-level speed max aloft will bring an increase in surface winds D4/Monday to D5/Tuesday overlapping very dry conditions antecedent conditions across portions of the Great Basin. ...Dry/Windy... Surface winds will increase across northern Nevada into northeastern California and southern Oregon on D4/Monday as a speed max moves through the base of the midlevel low. Sustained west southwesterly winds at 15-20 mph will overlap afternoon relative humidity reductions to 10-15 percent. Fuels within this region are critically dry and support inclusion of 40% Critical probabilities. The best overlap of fuels and windy/dry conditions will be across northwestern Nevada into far northeastern California, where 70% probabilities were included. This area may need to be expanded with subsequent outlooks. Dry and windy conditions will continue eastward into portions of southern Idaho and the Northern Rockies on D5/Tuesday. The highest confidence for potential Critical conditions will be across the Snake River Plain, where a 40 percent delineation was added with this outlook. ...Isolated Dry Thunderstorms... Isolated dry thunderstorms will be possible across south/central OR on D3/Sunday, with increasing potential into the overnight hours, as midlevel moisture/instability increases ahead of the midlevel low. A mix of dry/wet thunderstorms will continue spreading/expanding eastward across eastern OR into ID. While fuel receptiveness across the region is uncertain, several days of boundary-layer drying (beneath the large-scale ridge) preceding this thunderstorm event will pose at least some risk of lightning-induced ignitions. Thunderstorm potential will continue across the northern Rockies on Day 5/Tuesday, though gradually increasing moisture and precipitation cast uncertainty on the overall fire-weather risk which precluding Isolated Dry Thunderstorm probabilities. ..Thornton.. 08/30/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0457 PM CDT Fri Aug 30 2024 Valid 011200Z - 071200Z A midlevel low will move across northern CA/southwest OR and continue east-northeastward across OR into ID D3/Sun through D4/Monday. Ahead of this feature, midlevel moisture will increase, with potential for isolated dry thunderstorms across the Pacific Northwest extending into the Northern Rockies. In addition to thunderstorm chances, a mid-level speed max aloft will bring an increase in surface winds D4/Monday to D5/Tuesday overlapping very dry conditions antecedent conditions across portions of the Great Basin. ...Dry/Windy... Surface winds will increase across northern Nevada into northeastern California and southern Oregon on D4/Monday as a speed max moves through the base of the midlevel low. Sustained west southwesterly winds at 15-20 mph will overlap afternoon relative humidity reductions to 10-15 percent. Fuels within this region are critically dry and support inclusion of 40% Critical probabilities. The best overlap of fuels and windy/dry conditions will be across northwestern Nevada into far northeastern California, where 70% probabilities were included. This area may need to be expanded with subsequent outlooks. Dry and windy conditions will continue eastward into portions of southern Idaho and the Northern Rockies on D5/Tuesday. The highest confidence for potential Critical conditions will be across the Snake River Plain, where a 40 percent delineation was added with this outlook. ...Isolated Dry Thunderstorms... Isolated dry thunderstorms will be possible across south/central OR on D3/Sunday, with increasing potential into the overnight hours, as midlevel moisture/instability increases ahead of the midlevel low. A mix of dry/wet thunderstorms will continue spreading/expanding eastward across eastern OR into ID. While fuel receptiveness across the region is uncertain, several days of boundary-layer drying (beneath the large-scale ridge) preceding this thunderstorm event will pose at least some risk of lightning-induced ignitions. Thunderstorm potential will continue across the northern Rockies on Day 5/Tuesday, though gradually increasing moisture and precipitation cast uncertainty on the overall fire-weather risk which precluding Isolated Dry Thunderstorm probabilities. ..Thornton.. 08/30/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0457 PM CDT Fri Aug 30 2024 Valid 011200Z - 071200Z A midlevel low will move across northern CA/southwest OR and continue east-northeastward across OR into ID D3/Sun through D4/Monday. Ahead of this feature, midlevel moisture will increase, with potential for isolated dry thunderstorms across the Pacific Northwest extending into the Northern Rockies. In addition to thunderstorm chances, a mid-level speed max aloft will bring an increase in surface winds D4/Monday to D5/Tuesday overlapping very dry conditions antecedent conditions across portions of the Great Basin. ...Dry/Windy... Surface winds will increase across northern Nevada into northeastern California and southern Oregon on D4/Monday as a speed max moves through the base of the midlevel low. Sustained west southwesterly winds at 15-20 mph will overlap afternoon relative humidity reductions to 10-15 percent. Fuels within this region are critically dry and support inclusion of 40% Critical probabilities. The best overlap of fuels and windy/dry conditions will be across northwestern Nevada into far northeastern California, where 70% probabilities were included. This area may need to be expanded with subsequent outlooks. Dry and windy conditions will continue eastward into portions of southern Idaho and the Northern Rockies on D5/Tuesday. The highest confidence for potential Critical conditions will be across the Snake River Plain, where a 40 percent delineation was added with this outlook. ...Isolated Dry Thunderstorms... Isolated dry thunderstorms will be possible across south/central OR on D3/Sunday, with increasing potential into the overnight hours, as midlevel moisture/instability increases ahead of the midlevel low. A mix of dry/wet thunderstorms will continue spreading/expanding eastward across eastern OR into ID. While fuel receptiveness across the region is uncertain, several days of boundary-layer drying (beneath the large-scale ridge) preceding this thunderstorm event will pose at least some risk of lightning-induced ignitions. Thunderstorm potential will continue across the northern Rockies on Day 5/Tuesday, though gradually increasing moisture and precipitation cast uncertainty on the overall fire-weather risk which precluding Isolated Dry Thunderstorm probabilities. ..Thornton.. 08/30/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0457 PM CDT Fri Aug 30 2024 Valid 011200Z - 071200Z A midlevel low will move across northern CA/southwest OR and continue east-northeastward across OR into ID D3/Sun through D4/Monday. Ahead of this feature, midlevel moisture will increase, with potential for isolated dry thunderstorms across the Pacific Northwest extending into the Northern Rockies. In addition to thunderstorm chances, a mid-level speed max aloft will bring an increase in surface winds D4/Monday to D5/Tuesday overlapping very dry conditions antecedent conditions across portions of the Great Basin. ...Dry/Windy... Surface winds will increase across northern Nevada into northeastern California and southern Oregon on D4/Monday as a speed max moves through the base of the midlevel low. Sustained west southwesterly winds at 15-20 mph will overlap afternoon relative humidity reductions to 10-15 percent. Fuels within this region are critically dry and support inclusion of 40% Critical probabilities. The best overlap of fuels and windy/dry conditions will be across northwestern Nevada into far northeastern California, where 70% probabilities were included. This area may need to be expanded with subsequent outlooks. Dry and windy conditions will continue eastward into portions of southern Idaho and the Northern Rockies on D5/Tuesday. The highest confidence for potential Critical conditions will be across the Snake River Plain, where a 40 percent delineation was added with this outlook. ...Isolated Dry Thunderstorms... Isolated dry thunderstorms will be possible across south/central OR on D3/Sunday, with increasing potential into the overnight hours, as midlevel moisture/instability increases ahead of the midlevel low. A mix of dry/wet thunderstorms will continue spreading/expanding eastward across eastern OR into ID. While fuel receptiveness across the region is uncertain, several days of boundary-layer drying (beneath the large-scale ridge) preceding this thunderstorm event will pose at least some risk of lightning-induced ignitions. Thunderstorm potential will continue across the northern Rockies on Day 5/Tuesday, though gradually increasing moisture and precipitation cast uncertainty on the overall fire-weather risk which precluding Isolated Dry Thunderstorm probabilities. ..Thornton.. 08/30/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0457 PM CDT Fri Aug 30 2024 Valid 011200Z - 071200Z A midlevel low will move across northern CA/southwest OR and continue east-northeastward across OR into ID D3/Sun through D4/Monday. Ahead of this feature, midlevel moisture will increase, with potential for isolated dry thunderstorms across the Pacific Northwest extending into the Northern Rockies. In addition to thunderstorm chances, a mid-level speed max aloft will bring an increase in surface winds D4/Monday to D5/Tuesday overlapping very dry conditions antecedent conditions across portions of the Great Basin. ...Dry/Windy... Surface winds will increase across northern Nevada into northeastern California and southern Oregon on D4/Monday as a speed max moves through the base of the midlevel low. Sustained west southwesterly winds at 15-20 mph will overlap afternoon relative humidity reductions to 10-15 percent. Fuels within this region are critically dry and support inclusion of 40% Critical probabilities. The best overlap of fuels and windy/dry conditions will be across northwestern Nevada into far northeastern California, where 70% probabilities were included. This area may need to be expanded with subsequent outlooks. Dry and windy conditions will continue eastward into portions of southern Idaho and the Northern Rockies on D5/Tuesday. The highest confidence for potential Critical conditions will be across the Snake River Plain, where a 40 percent delineation was added with this outlook. ...Isolated Dry Thunderstorms... Isolated dry thunderstorms will be possible across south/central OR on D3/Sunday, with increasing potential into the overnight hours, as midlevel moisture/instability increases ahead of the midlevel low. A mix of dry/wet thunderstorms will continue spreading/expanding eastward across eastern OR into ID. While fuel receptiveness across the region is uncertain, several days of boundary-layer drying (beneath the large-scale ridge) preceding this thunderstorm event will pose at least some risk of lightning-induced ignitions. Thunderstorm potential will continue across the northern Rockies on Day 5/Tuesday, though gradually increasing moisture and precipitation cast uncertainty on the overall fire-weather risk which precluding Isolated Dry Thunderstorm probabilities. ..Thornton.. 08/30/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0457 PM CDT Fri Aug 30 2024 Valid 011200Z - 071200Z A midlevel low will move across northern CA/southwest OR and continue east-northeastward across OR into ID D3/Sun through D4/Monday. Ahead of this feature, midlevel moisture will increase, with potential for isolated dry thunderstorms across the Pacific Northwest extending into the Northern Rockies. In addition to thunderstorm chances, a mid-level speed max aloft will bring an increase in surface winds D4/Monday to D5/Tuesday overlapping very dry conditions antecedent conditions across portions of the Great Basin. ...Dry/Windy... Surface winds will increase across northern Nevada into northeastern California and southern Oregon on D4/Monday as a speed max moves through the base of the midlevel low. Sustained west southwesterly winds at 15-20 mph will overlap afternoon relative humidity reductions to 10-15 percent. Fuels within this region are critically dry and support inclusion of 40% Critical probabilities. The best overlap of fuels and windy/dry conditions will be across northwestern Nevada into far northeastern California, where 70% probabilities were included. This area may need to be expanded with subsequent outlooks. Dry and windy conditions will continue eastward into portions of southern Idaho and the Northern Rockies on D5/Tuesday. The highest confidence for potential Critical conditions will be across the Snake River Plain, where a 40 percent delineation was added with this outlook. ...Isolated Dry Thunderstorms... Isolated dry thunderstorms will be possible across south/central OR on D3/Sunday, with increasing potential into the overnight hours, as midlevel moisture/instability increases ahead of the midlevel low. A mix of dry/wet thunderstorms will continue spreading/expanding eastward across eastern OR into ID. While fuel receptiveness across the region is uncertain, several days of boundary-layer drying (beneath the large-scale ridge) preceding this thunderstorm event will pose at least some risk of lightning-induced ignitions. Thunderstorm potential will continue across the northern Rockies on Day 5/Tuesday, though gradually increasing moisture and precipitation cast uncertainty on the overall fire-weather risk which precluding Isolated Dry Thunderstorm probabilities. ..Thornton.. 08/30/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0457 PM CDT Fri Aug 30 2024 Valid 011200Z - 071200Z A midlevel low will move across northern CA/southwest OR and continue east-northeastward across OR into ID D3/Sun through D4/Monday. Ahead of this feature, midlevel moisture will increase, with potential for isolated dry thunderstorms across the Pacific Northwest extending into the Northern Rockies. In addition to thunderstorm chances, a mid-level speed max aloft will bring an increase in surface winds D4/Monday to D5/Tuesday overlapping very dry conditions antecedent conditions across portions of the Great Basin. ...Dry/Windy... Surface winds will increase across northern Nevada into northeastern California and southern Oregon on D4/Monday as a speed max moves through the base of the midlevel low. Sustained west southwesterly winds at 15-20 mph will overlap afternoon relative humidity reductions to 10-15 percent. Fuels within this region are critically dry and support inclusion of 40% Critical probabilities. The best overlap of fuels and windy/dry conditions will be across northwestern Nevada into far northeastern California, where 70% probabilities were included. This area may need to be expanded with subsequent outlooks. Dry and windy conditions will continue eastward into portions of southern Idaho and the Northern Rockies on D5/Tuesday. The highest confidence for potential Critical conditions will be across the Snake River Plain, where a 40 percent delineation was added with this outlook. ...Isolated Dry Thunderstorms... Isolated dry thunderstorms will be possible across south/central OR on D3/Sunday, with increasing potential into the overnight hours, as midlevel moisture/instability increases ahead of the midlevel low. A mix of dry/wet thunderstorms will continue spreading/expanding eastward across eastern OR into ID. While fuel receptiveness across the region is uncertain, several days of boundary-layer drying (beneath the large-scale ridge) preceding this thunderstorm event will pose at least some risk of lightning-induced ignitions. Thunderstorm potential will continue across the northern Rockies on Day 5/Tuesday, though gradually increasing moisture and precipitation cast uncertainty on the overall fire-weather risk which precluding Isolated Dry Thunderstorm probabilities. ..Thornton.. 08/30/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

WW 0665 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 665 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 20 SE GRR TO 20 NNE LAN TO 30 E HTL. ..MOORE..08/30/24 ATTN...WFO...APX...DTX...IWX...GRR... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 665 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS MIC011-017-023-025-045-049-059-063-065-075-087-091-093-099-115- 125-145-147-151-155-157-161-163-302240- MI . MICHIGAN COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE ARENAC BAY BRANCH CALHOUN EATON GENESEE HILLSDALE HURON INGHAM JACKSON LAPEER LENAWEE LIVINGSTON MACOMB MONROE OAKLAND SAGINAW ST. CLAIR SANILAC SHIAWASSEE TUSCOLA WASHTENAW WAYNE LCZ422-423-460-LEZ444-LHZ421-422-441-442-443-462-463-464- 302240- CW . ADJACENT COASTAL WATERS INCLUDED ARE ST. CLAIR RIVER Read more