Severe Storms

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1153 AM CDT Fri Aug 30 2024 Valid 301700Z - 311200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... No changes are needed to the D1 Fire Weather Outlook. See previous discussion below for more information. ..Thornton.. 08/30/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1235 AM CDT Fri Aug 30 2024/ ...Synopsis... Fire weather concerns are expected to remain limited for today across the country. Dry conditions will persist across much of the Great Basin and into parts of the Pacific Northwest and central Rockies for this afternoon with RH minimums once again falling into the teens and single digits. Upper-level ridging over the western CONUS will promote mostly clear skies but weak synoptic/gradient winds that should mitigate fire weather concerns. Thunderstorm activity along the lower CO River Valley on Thursday (yesterday) resulted in a mix of wet and dry thunderstorms based on sporadic rainfall measurements and MRMS QPE. A similar mix of wet/dry thunderstorms is expected again today across far southeast NV into western AZ as weak mid-level ascent overspreads the fringe of a modest monsoonal moisture plume. Latest fuel guidance suggests lightning ignition efficiency/fuel dryness gradually increases from far western AZ into southern NV, but the spatial coverage of sufficiently dry fuel with appreciable dry lightning threat appears too limited to introduce highlights. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1153 AM CDT Fri Aug 30 2024 Valid 301700Z - 311200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... No changes are needed to the D1 Fire Weather Outlook. See previous discussion below for more information. ..Thornton.. 08/30/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1235 AM CDT Fri Aug 30 2024/ ...Synopsis... Fire weather concerns are expected to remain limited for today across the country. Dry conditions will persist across much of the Great Basin and into parts of the Pacific Northwest and central Rockies for this afternoon with RH minimums once again falling into the teens and single digits. Upper-level ridging over the western CONUS will promote mostly clear skies but weak synoptic/gradient winds that should mitigate fire weather concerns. Thunderstorm activity along the lower CO River Valley on Thursday (yesterday) resulted in a mix of wet and dry thunderstorms based on sporadic rainfall measurements and MRMS QPE. A similar mix of wet/dry thunderstorms is expected again today across far southeast NV into western AZ as weak mid-level ascent overspreads the fringe of a modest monsoonal moisture plume. Latest fuel guidance suggests lightning ignition efficiency/fuel dryness gradually increases from far western AZ into southern NV, but the spatial coverage of sufficiently dry fuel with appreciable dry lightning threat appears too limited to introduce highlights. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1153 AM CDT Fri Aug 30 2024 Valid 301700Z - 311200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... No changes are needed to the D1 Fire Weather Outlook. See previous discussion below for more information. ..Thornton.. 08/30/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1235 AM CDT Fri Aug 30 2024/ ...Synopsis... Fire weather concerns are expected to remain limited for today across the country. Dry conditions will persist across much of the Great Basin and into parts of the Pacific Northwest and central Rockies for this afternoon with RH minimums once again falling into the teens and single digits. Upper-level ridging over the western CONUS will promote mostly clear skies but weak synoptic/gradient winds that should mitigate fire weather concerns. Thunderstorm activity along the lower CO River Valley on Thursday (yesterday) resulted in a mix of wet and dry thunderstorms based on sporadic rainfall measurements and MRMS QPE. A similar mix of wet/dry thunderstorms is expected again today across far southeast NV into western AZ as weak mid-level ascent overspreads the fringe of a modest monsoonal moisture plume. Latest fuel guidance suggests lightning ignition efficiency/fuel dryness gradually increases from far western AZ into southern NV, but the spatial coverage of sufficiently dry fuel with appreciable dry lightning threat appears too limited to introduce highlights. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1153 AM CDT Fri Aug 30 2024 Valid 301700Z - 311200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... No changes are needed to the D1 Fire Weather Outlook. See previous discussion below for more information. ..Thornton.. 08/30/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1235 AM CDT Fri Aug 30 2024/ ...Synopsis... Fire weather concerns are expected to remain limited for today across the country. Dry conditions will persist across much of the Great Basin and into parts of the Pacific Northwest and central Rockies for this afternoon with RH minimums once again falling into the teens and single digits. Upper-level ridging over the western CONUS will promote mostly clear skies but weak synoptic/gradient winds that should mitigate fire weather concerns. Thunderstorm activity along the lower CO River Valley on Thursday (yesterday) resulted in a mix of wet and dry thunderstorms based on sporadic rainfall measurements and MRMS QPE. A similar mix of wet/dry thunderstorms is expected again today across far southeast NV into western AZ as weak mid-level ascent overspreads the fringe of a modest monsoonal moisture plume. Latest fuel guidance suggests lightning ignition efficiency/fuel dryness gradually increases from far western AZ into southern NV, but the spatial coverage of sufficiently dry fuel with appreciable dry lightning threat appears too limited to introduce highlights. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1153 AM CDT Fri Aug 30 2024 Valid 301700Z - 311200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... No changes are needed to the D1 Fire Weather Outlook. See previous discussion below for more information. ..Thornton.. 08/30/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1235 AM CDT Fri Aug 30 2024/ ...Synopsis... Fire weather concerns are expected to remain limited for today across the country. Dry conditions will persist across much of the Great Basin and into parts of the Pacific Northwest and central Rockies for this afternoon with RH minimums once again falling into the teens and single digits. Upper-level ridging over the western CONUS will promote mostly clear skies but weak synoptic/gradient winds that should mitigate fire weather concerns. Thunderstorm activity along the lower CO River Valley on Thursday (yesterday) resulted in a mix of wet and dry thunderstorms based on sporadic rainfall measurements and MRMS QPE. A similar mix of wet/dry thunderstorms is expected again today across far southeast NV into western AZ as weak mid-level ascent overspreads the fringe of a modest monsoonal moisture plume. Latest fuel guidance suggests lightning ignition efficiency/fuel dryness gradually increases from far western AZ into southern NV, but the spatial coverage of sufficiently dry fuel with appreciable dry lightning threat appears too limited to introduce highlights. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1153 AM CDT Fri Aug 30 2024 Valid 301700Z - 311200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... No changes are needed to the D1 Fire Weather Outlook. See previous discussion below for more information. ..Thornton.. 08/30/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1235 AM CDT Fri Aug 30 2024/ ...Synopsis... Fire weather concerns are expected to remain limited for today across the country. Dry conditions will persist across much of the Great Basin and into parts of the Pacific Northwest and central Rockies for this afternoon with RH minimums once again falling into the teens and single digits. Upper-level ridging over the western CONUS will promote mostly clear skies but weak synoptic/gradient winds that should mitigate fire weather concerns. Thunderstorm activity along the lower CO River Valley on Thursday (yesterday) resulted in a mix of wet and dry thunderstorms based on sporadic rainfall measurements and MRMS QPE. A similar mix of wet/dry thunderstorms is expected again today across far southeast NV into western AZ as weak mid-level ascent overspreads the fringe of a modest monsoonal moisture plume. Latest fuel guidance suggests lightning ignition efficiency/fuel dryness gradually increases from far western AZ into southern NV, but the spatial coverage of sufficiently dry fuel with appreciable dry lightning threat appears too limited to introduce highlights. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1153 AM CDT Fri Aug 30 2024 Valid 301700Z - 311200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... No changes are needed to the D1 Fire Weather Outlook. See previous discussion below for more information. ..Thornton.. 08/30/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1235 AM CDT Fri Aug 30 2024/ ...Synopsis... Fire weather concerns are expected to remain limited for today across the country. Dry conditions will persist across much of the Great Basin and into parts of the Pacific Northwest and central Rockies for this afternoon with RH minimums once again falling into the teens and single digits. Upper-level ridging over the western CONUS will promote mostly clear skies but weak synoptic/gradient winds that should mitigate fire weather concerns. Thunderstorm activity along the lower CO River Valley on Thursday (yesterday) resulted in a mix of wet and dry thunderstorms based on sporadic rainfall measurements and MRMS QPE. A similar mix of wet/dry thunderstorms is expected again today across far southeast NV into western AZ as weak mid-level ascent overspreads the fringe of a modest monsoonal moisture plume. Latest fuel guidance suggests lightning ignition efficiency/fuel dryness gradually increases from far western AZ into southern NV, but the spatial coverage of sufficiently dry fuel with appreciable dry lightning threat appears too limited to introduce highlights. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1153 AM CDT Fri Aug 30 2024 Valid 301700Z - 311200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... No changes are needed to the D1 Fire Weather Outlook. See previous discussion below for more information. ..Thornton.. 08/30/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1235 AM CDT Fri Aug 30 2024/ ...Synopsis... Fire weather concerns are expected to remain limited for today across the country. Dry conditions will persist across much of the Great Basin and into parts of the Pacific Northwest and central Rockies for this afternoon with RH minimums once again falling into the teens and single digits. Upper-level ridging over the western CONUS will promote mostly clear skies but weak synoptic/gradient winds that should mitigate fire weather concerns. Thunderstorm activity along the lower CO River Valley on Thursday (yesterday) resulted in a mix of wet and dry thunderstorms based on sporadic rainfall measurements and MRMS QPE. A similar mix of wet/dry thunderstorms is expected again today across far southeast NV into western AZ as weak mid-level ascent overspreads the fringe of a modest monsoonal moisture plume. Latest fuel guidance suggests lightning ignition efficiency/fuel dryness gradually increases from far western AZ into southern NV, but the spatial coverage of sufficiently dry fuel with appreciable dry lightning threat appears too limited to introduce highlights. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1153 AM CDT Fri Aug 30 2024 Valid 301700Z - 311200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... No changes are needed to the D1 Fire Weather Outlook. See previous discussion below for more information. ..Thornton.. 08/30/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1235 AM CDT Fri Aug 30 2024/ ...Synopsis... Fire weather concerns are expected to remain limited for today across the country. Dry conditions will persist across much of the Great Basin and into parts of the Pacific Northwest and central Rockies for this afternoon with RH minimums once again falling into the teens and single digits. Upper-level ridging over the western CONUS will promote mostly clear skies but weak synoptic/gradient winds that should mitigate fire weather concerns. Thunderstorm activity along the lower CO River Valley on Thursday (yesterday) resulted in a mix of wet and dry thunderstorms based on sporadic rainfall measurements and MRMS QPE. A similar mix of wet/dry thunderstorms is expected again today across far southeast NV into western AZ as weak mid-level ascent overspreads the fringe of a modest monsoonal moisture plume. Latest fuel guidance suggests lightning ignition efficiency/fuel dryness gradually increases from far western AZ into southern NV, but the spatial coverage of sufficiently dry fuel with appreciable dry lightning threat appears too limited to introduce highlights. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1153 AM CDT Fri Aug 30 2024 Valid 301700Z - 311200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... No changes are needed to the D1 Fire Weather Outlook. See previous discussion below for more information. ..Thornton.. 08/30/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1235 AM CDT Fri Aug 30 2024/ ...Synopsis... Fire weather concerns are expected to remain limited for today across the country. Dry conditions will persist across much of the Great Basin and into parts of the Pacific Northwest and central Rockies for this afternoon with RH minimums once again falling into the teens and single digits. Upper-level ridging over the western CONUS will promote mostly clear skies but weak synoptic/gradient winds that should mitigate fire weather concerns. Thunderstorm activity along the lower CO River Valley on Thursday (yesterday) resulted in a mix of wet and dry thunderstorms based on sporadic rainfall measurements and MRMS QPE. A similar mix of wet/dry thunderstorms is expected again today across far southeast NV into western AZ as weak mid-level ascent overspreads the fringe of a modest monsoonal moisture plume. Latest fuel guidance suggests lightning ignition efficiency/fuel dryness gradually increases from far western AZ into southern NV, but the spatial coverage of sufficiently dry fuel with appreciable dry lightning threat appears too limited to introduce highlights. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1153 AM CDT Fri Aug 30 2024 Valid 301700Z - 311200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... No changes are needed to the D1 Fire Weather Outlook. See previous discussion below for more information. ..Thornton.. 08/30/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1235 AM CDT Fri Aug 30 2024/ ...Synopsis... Fire weather concerns are expected to remain limited for today across the country. Dry conditions will persist across much of the Great Basin and into parts of the Pacific Northwest and central Rockies for this afternoon with RH minimums once again falling into the teens and single digits. Upper-level ridging over the western CONUS will promote mostly clear skies but weak synoptic/gradient winds that should mitigate fire weather concerns. Thunderstorm activity along the lower CO River Valley on Thursday (yesterday) resulted in a mix of wet and dry thunderstorms based on sporadic rainfall measurements and MRMS QPE. A similar mix of wet/dry thunderstorms is expected again today across far southeast NV into western AZ as weak mid-level ascent overspreads the fringe of a modest monsoonal moisture plume. Latest fuel guidance suggests lightning ignition efficiency/fuel dryness gradually increases from far western AZ into southern NV, but the spatial coverage of sufficiently dry fuel with appreciable dry lightning threat appears too limited to introduce highlights. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1124 AM CDT Fri Aug 30 2024 Valid 301630Z - 311200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER PORTIONS OF EASTERN LOWER MICHIGAN... ...SUMMARY... Scattered strong to severe thunderstorms are possible across eastern Lower Michigan this afternoon, with damaging winds the main threat. Isolated strong to severe thunderstorms may occur into parts of the Midwest, and also across portions of the Carolinas and Virginia into northeast Georgia. ...Great Lakes to the Mid Mississippi Valley... Moderate instability is expected to develop ahead of a cold front that should extend from eastern Lower MI southwest into OK this afternoon, with MLCAPE on the order of 2000 J/kg. Modestly enhanced westerly mid-level flow across Lower MI will contribute to 25-35 kts of deep-layer shear, and this should prove sufficient for organized multicell storms. Scattered thunderstorm development is expected this afternoon as weak height falls/ascent overspreads the Slight Risk area, and where somewhat greater storm coverage is expected. Substantial boundary layer heating will result in steep low-level lapse rates, and the strongest storms/clusters will be capable of damaging gusts and isolated severe hail. Farther southwest, mid-level flow will be weaker than across the Great Lakes, but higher MLCAPE and negligible CINH will be present. Scattered thunderstorms should develop along the front after 18-19z, tending to cluster with time, and pose a risk for strong/damaging gusts and perhaps hail. ...Southern Appalachians to the Southern Mid-Atlantic... Diurnal heating of a very moist air mass (mid/upper 70s surface dew points and PW generally above 1.75 inches) will result in strong instability, with pockets of MLCAPE in excess of 3000 J/kg and effectively no CINH. Despite very weak mid-level flow of 10-15 kts, scattered thunderstorms developing near a weak front, and over higher terrain, will pose a risk for a few wet microbursts/strong wind gusts through this afternoon. ..Bunting/Squitieri.. 08/30/2024 Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1124 AM CDT Fri Aug 30 2024 Valid 301630Z - 311200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER PORTIONS OF EASTERN LOWER MICHIGAN... ...SUMMARY... Scattered strong to severe thunderstorms are possible across eastern Lower Michigan this afternoon, with damaging winds the main threat. Isolated strong to severe thunderstorms may occur into parts of the Midwest, and also across portions of the Carolinas and Virginia into northeast Georgia. ...Great Lakes to the Mid Mississippi Valley... Moderate instability is expected to develop ahead of a cold front that should extend from eastern Lower MI southwest into OK this afternoon, with MLCAPE on the order of 2000 J/kg. Modestly enhanced westerly mid-level flow across Lower MI will contribute to 25-35 kts of deep-layer shear, and this should prove sufficient for organized multicell storms. Scattered thunderstorm development is expected this afternoon as weak height falls/ascent overspreads the Slight Risk area, and where somewhat greater storm coverage is expected. Substantial boundary layer heating will result in steep low-level lapse rates, and the strongest storms/clusters will be capable of damaging gusts and isolated severe hail. Farther southwest, mid-level flow will be weaker than across the Great Lakes, but higher MLCAPE and negligible CINH will be present. Scattered thunderstorms should develop along the front after 18-19z, tending to cluster with time, and pose a risk for strong/damaging gusts and perhaps hail. ...Southern Appalachians to the Southern Mid-Atlantic... Diurnal heating of a very moist air mass (mid/upper 70s surface dew points and PW generally above 1.75 inches) will result in strong instability, with pockets of MLCAPE in excess of 3000 J/kg and effectively no CINH. Despite very weak mid-level flow of 10-15 kts, scattered thunderstorms developing near a weak front, and over higher terrain, will pose a risk for a few wet microbursts/strong wind gusts through this afternoon. ..Bunting/Squitieri.. 08/30/2024 Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1124 AM CDT Fri Aug 30 2024 Valid 301630Z - 311200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER PORTIONS OF EASTERN LOWER MICHIGAN... ...SUMMARY... Scattered strong to severe thunderstorms are possible across eastern Lower Michigan this afternoon, with damaging winds the main threat. Isolated strong to severe thunderstorms may occur into parts of the Midwest, and also across portions of the Carolinas and Virginia into northeast Georgia. ...Great Lakes to the Mid Mississippi Valley... Moderate instability is expected to develop ahead of a cold front that should extend from eastern Lower MI southwest into OK this afternoon, with MLCAPE on the order of 2000 J/kg. Modestly enhanced westerly mid-level flow across Lower MI will contribute to 25-35 kts of deep-layer shear, and this should prove sufficient for organized multicell storms. Scattered thunderstorm development is expected this afternoon as weak height falls/ascent overspreads the Slight Risk area, and where somewhat greater storm coverage is expected. Substantial boundary layer heating will result in steep low-level lapse rates, and the strongest storms/clusters will be capable of damaging gusts and isolated severe hail. Farther southwest, mid-level flow will be weaker than across the Great Lakes, but higher MLCAPE and negligible CINH will be present. Scattered thunderstorms should develop along the front after 18-19z, tending to cluster with time, and pose a risk for strong/damaging gusts and perhaps hail. ...Southern Appalachians to the Southern Mid-Atlantic... Diurnal heating of a very moist air mass (mid/upper 70s surface dew points and PW generally above 1.75 inches) will result in strong instability, with pockets of MLCAPE in excess of 3000 J/kg and effectively no CINH. Despite very weak mid-level flow of 10-15 kts, scattered thunderstorms developing near a weak front, and over higher terrain, will pose a risk for a few wet microbursts/strong wind gusts through this afternoon. ..Bunting/Squitieri.. 08/30/2024 Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1124 AM CDT Fri Aug 30 2024 Valid 301630Z - 311200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER PORTIONS OF EASTERN LOWER MICHIGAN... ...SUMMARY... Scattered strong to severe thunderstorms are possible across eastern Lower Michigan this afternoon, with damaging winds the main threat. Isolated strong to severe thunderstorms may occur into parts of the Midwest, and also across portions of the Carolinas and Virginia into northeast Georgia. ...Great Lakes to the Mid Mississippi Valley... Moderate instability is expected to develop ahead of a cold front that should extend from eastern Lower MI southwest into OK this afternoon, with MLCAPE on the order of 2000 J/kg. Modestly enhanced westerly mid-level flow across Lower MI will contribute to 25-35 kts of deep-layer shear, and this should prove sufficient for organized multicell storms. Scattered thunderstorm development is expected this afternoon as weak height falls/ascent overspreads the Slight Risk area, and where somewhat greater storm coverage is expected. Substantial boundary layer heating will result in steep low-level lapse rates, and the strongest storms/clusters will be capable of damaging gusts and isolated severe hail. Farther southwest, mid-level flow will be weaker than across the Great Lakes, but higher MLCAPE and negligible CINH will be present. Scattered thunderstorms should develop along the front after 18-19z, tending to cluster with time, and pose a risk for strong/damaging gusts and perhaps hail. ...Southern Appalachians to the Southern Mid-Atlantic... Diurnal heating of a very moist air mass (mid/upper 70s surface dew points and PW generally above 1.75 inches) will result in strong instability, with pockets of MLCAPE in excess of 3000 J/kg and effectively no CINH. Despite very weak mid-level flow of 10-15 kts, scattered thunderstorms developing near a weak front, and over higher terrain, will pose a risk for a few wet microbursts/strong wind gusts through this afternoon. ..Bunting/Squitieri.. 08/30/2024 Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1124 AM CDT Fri Aug 30 2024 Valid 301630Z - 311200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER PORTIONS OF EASTERN LOWER MICHIGAN... ...SUMMARY... Scattered strong to severe thunderstorms are possible across eastern Lower Michigan this afternoon, with damaging winds the main threat. Isolated strong to severe thunderstorms may occur into parts of the Midwest, and also across portions of the Carolinas and Virginia into northeast Georgia. ...Great Lakes to the Mid Mississippi Valley... Moderate instability is expected to develop ahead of a cold front that should extend from eastern Lower MI southwest into OK this afternoon, with MLCAPE on the order of 2000 J/kg. Modestly enhanced westerly mid-level flow across Lower MI will contribute to 25-35 kts of deep-layer shear, and this should prove sufficient for organized multicell storms. Scattered thunderstorm development is expected this afternoon as weak height falls/ascent overspreads the Slight Risk area, and where somewhat greater storm coverage is expected. Substantial boundary layer heating will result in steep low-level lapse rates, and the strongest storms/clusters will be capable of damaging gusts and isolated severe hail. Farther southwest, mid-level flow will be weaker than across the Great Lakes, but higher MLCAPE and negligible CINH will be present. Scattered thunderstorms should develop along the front after 18-19z, tending to cluster with time, and pose a risk for strong/damaging gusts and perhaps hail. ...Southern Appalachians to the Southern Mid-Atlantic... Diurnal heating of a very moist air mass (mid/upper 70s surface dew points and PW generally above 1.75 inches) will result in strong instability, with pockets of MLCAPE in excess of 3000 J/kg and effectively no CINH. Despite very weak mid-level flow of 10-15 kts, scattered thunderstorms developing near a weak front, and over higher terrain, will pose a risk for a few wet microbursts/strong wind gusts through this afternoon. ..Bunting/Squitieri.. 08/30/2024 Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1124 AM CDT Fri Aug 30 2024 Valid 301630Z - 311200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER PORTIONS OF EASTERN LOWER MICHIGAN... ...SUMMARY... Scattered strong to severe thunderstorms are possible across eastern Lower Michigan this afternoon, with damaging winds the main threat. Isolated strong to severe thunderstorms may occur into parts of the Midwest, and also across portions of the Carolinas and Virginia into northeast Georgia. ...Great Lakes to the Mid Mississippi Valley... Moderate instability is expected to develop ahead of a cold front that should extend from eastern Lower MI southwest into OK this afternoon, with MLCAPE on the order of 2000 J/kg. Modestly enhanced westerly mid-level flow across Lower MI will contribute to 25-35 kts of deep-layer shear, and this should prove sufficient for organized multicell storms. Scattered thunderstorm development is expected this afternoon as weak height falls/ascent overspreads the Slight Risk area, and where somewhat greater storm coverage is expected. Substantial boundary layer heating will result in steep low-level lapse rates, and the strongest storms/clusters will be capable of damaging gusts and isolated severe hail. Farther southwest, mid-level flow will be weaker than across the Great Lakes, but higher MLCAPE and negligible CINH will be present. Scattered thunderstorms should develop along the front after 18-19z, tending to cluster with time, and pose a risk for strong/damaging gusts and perhaps hail. ...Southern Appalachians to the Southern Mid-Atlantic... Diurnal heating of a very moist air mass (mid/upper 70s surface dew points and PW generally above 1.75 inches) will result in strong instability, with pockets of MLCAPE in excess of 3000 J/kg and effectively no CINH. Despite very weak mid-level flow of 10-15 kts, scattered thunderstorms developing near a weak front, and over higher terrain, will pose a risk for a few wet microbursts/strong wind gusts through this afternoon. ..Bunting/Squitieri.. 08/30/2024 Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1124 AM CDT Fri Aug 30 2024 Valid 301630Z - 311200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER PORTIONS OF EASTERN LOWER MICHIGAN... ...SUMMARY... Scattered strong to severe thunderstorms are possible across eastern Lower Michigan this afternoon, with damaging winds the main threat. Isolated strong to severe thunderstorms may occur into parts of the Midwest, and also across portions of the Carolinas and Virginia into northeast Georgia. ...Great Lakes to the Mid Mississippi Valley... Moderate instability is expected to develop ahead of a cold front that should extend from eastern Lower MI southwest into OK this afternoon, with MLCAPE on the order of 2000 J/kg. Modestly enhanced westerly mid-level flow across Lower MI will contribute to 25-35 kts of deep-layer shear, and this should prove sufficient for organized multicell storms. Scattered thunderstorm development is expected this afternoon as weak height falls/ascent overspreads the Slight Risk area, and where somewhat greater storm coverage is expected. Substantial boundary layer heating will result in steep low-level lapse rates, and the strongest storms/clusters will be capable of damaging gusts and isolated severe hail. Farther southwest, mid-level flow will be weaker than across the Great Lakes, but higher MLCAPE and negligible CINH will be present. Scattered thunderstorms should develop along the front after 18-19z, tending to cluster with time, and pose a risk for strong/damaging gusts and perhaps hail. ...Southern Appalachians to the Southern Mid-Atlantic... Diurnal heating of a very moist air mass (mid/upper 70s surface dew points and PW generally above 1.75 inches) will result in strong instability, with pockets of MLCAPE in excess of 3000 J/kg and effectively no CINH. Despite very weak mid-level flow of 10-15 kts, scattered thunderstorms developing near a weak front, and over higher terrain, will pose a risk for a few wet microbursts/strong wind gusts through this afternoon. ..Bunting/Squitieri.. 08/30/2024 Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1124 AM CDT Fri Aug 30 2024 Valid 301630Z - 311200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER PORTIONS OF EASTERN LOWER MICHIGAN... ...SUMMARY... Scattered strong to severe thunderstorms are possible across eastern Lower Michigan this afternoon, with damaging winds the main threat. Isolated strong to severe thunderstorms may occur into parts of the Midwest, and also across portions of the Carolinas and Virginia into northeast Georgia. ...Great Lakes to the Mid Mississippi Valley... Moderate instability is expected to develop ahead of a cold front that should extend from eastern Lower MI southwest into OK this afternoon, with MLCAPE on the order of 2000 J/kg. Modestly enhanced westerly mid-level flow across Lower MI will contribute to 25-35 kts of deep-layer shear, and this should prove sufficient for organized multicell storms. Scattered thunderstorm development is expected this afternoon as weak height falls/ascent overspreads the Slight Risk area, and where somewhat greater storm coverage is expected. Substantial boundary layer heating will result in steep low-level lapse rates, and the strongest storms/clusters will be capable of damaging gusts and isolated severe hail. Farther southwest, mid-level flow will be weaker than across the Great Lakes, but higher MLCAPE and negligible CINH will be present. Scattered thunderstorms should develop along the front after 18-19z, tending to cluster with time, and pose a risk for strong/damaging gusts and perhaps hail. ...Southern Appalachians to the Southern Mid-Atlantic... Diurnal heating of a very moist air mass (mid/upper 70s surface dew points and PW generally above 1.75 inches) will result in strong instability, with pockets of MLCAPE in excess of 3000 J/kg and effectively no CINH. Despite very weak mid-level flow of 10-15 kts, scattered thunderstorms developing near a weak front, and over higher terrain, will pose a risk for a few wet microbursts/strong wind gusts through this afternoon. ..Bunting/Squitieri.. 08/30/2024 Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1124 AM CDT Fri Aug 30 2024 Valid 301630Z - 311200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER PORTIONS OF EASTERN LOWER MICHIGAN... ...SUMMARY... Scattered strong to severe thunderstorms are possible across eastern Lower Michigan this afternoon, with damaging winds the main threat. Isolated strong to severe thunderstorms may occur into parts of the Midwest, and also across portions of the Carolinas and Virginia into northeast Georgia. ...Great Lakes to the Mid Mississippi Valley... Moderate instability is expected to develop ahead of a cold front that should extend from eastern Lower MI southwest into OK this afternoon, with MLCAPE on the order of 2000 J/kg. Modestly enhanced westerly mid-level flow across Lower MI will contribute to 25-35 kts of deep-layer shear, and this should prove sufficient for organized multicell storms. Scattered thunderstorm development is expected this afternoon as weak height falls/ascent overspreads the Slight Risk area, and where somewhat greater storm coverage is expected. Substantial boundary layer heating will result in steep low-level lapse rates, and the strongest storms/clusters will be capable of damaging gusts and isolated severe hail. Farther southwest, mid-level flow will be weaker than across the Great Lakes, but higher MLCAPE and negligible CINH will be present. Scattered thunderstorms should develop along the front after 18-19z, tending to cluster with time, and pose a risk for strong/damaging gusts and perhaps hail. ...Southern Appalachians to the Southern Mid-Atlantic... Diurnal heating of a very moist air mass (mid/upper 70s surface dew points and PW generally above 1.75 inches) will result in strong instability, with pockets of MLCAPE in excess of 3000 J/kg and effectively no CINH. Despite very weak mid-level flow of 10-15 kts, scattered thunderstorms developing near a weak front, and over higher terrain, will pose a risk for a few wet microbursts/strong wind gusts through this afternoon. ..Bunting/Squitieri.. 08/30/2024 Read more