Severe Storms

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1048 AM CST Mon Dec 09 2024 Valid 101200Z - 111200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF CENTRAL AND SOUTH AL...SOUTHWEST GA...AND THE ADJACENT FL PANHANDLE... ...SUMMARY... Isolated severe thunderstorms are possible across portions of central and south Alabama, southwest Georgia, and the adjacent Florida Panhandle on Tuesday. ...Southeast... An upper-level trough will amplify and transition from positively tilted across the Southwest Tuesday morning to negatively tilted by early Wednesday morning across the Mississippi Valley. Persistent weak southerly flow will maintain mid 60s dewpoints across the Southeast within a broad warm-air advection regime. Extensive cloudcover and ongoing convection will likely limit destabilization, but sufficient moisture and the cooling temperatures aloft may allow for some weak instability to develop. Some CAM guidance such as the HRRR suggests greater heating is possible with temperatures in the mid 70s and over 1000 J/kg MLCAPE in some pockets. If this greater instability solution were to verify, a slightly greater severe weather threat may materialize given the favorable shear with lengthening hodographs through the day. However, at this time, expect minimal instability inland due to the widespread convection and cloudcover. A few rotating storms/bowing segments with the threat for a few damaging wind gusts and perhaps a tornado will be the primary threat. ...Outerbanks... As the primary trough starts to become negatively tilted around 12Z Wednesday, a surface low is expected to become better pronounced and start to deepen across the Appalachians. As this occurs, low-level flow will strengthen and back which will allow better moisture to advect inland across the eastern Carolinas. Sufficient instability is possible across the eastern Carolinas for some supercell potential. However, at this time CAMS are not clear whether a confluence band will form in this region and if it will be inland if it does develop. If a confluence band does develop and can move inland, supercells will be possible with a threat for damaging wind gusts and a tornado or two, given the wind profile and moderate instability forecast. ..Bentley.. 12/09/2024 Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1018 AM CST Mon Dec 09 2024 Valid 091700Z - 101200Z ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR THE SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA COAST... No changes are needed to the current D1 Fire Weather Outlook. Though morning surface and satellite observations show the marine layer is in place across much of the coastal areas/valleys within the current Elevated and Critical risk areas, this is expected to mix out through the afternoon as offshore flow increases. Conditions will worsen through late Monday afternoon before peaking early on Tuesday. ..Thornton.. 12/09/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0129 AM CST Mon Dec 09 2024/ ...Synopsis... ...Southern CA Coast... High-end critical fire weather conditions are expected to develop later this afternoon and into the overnight hours along the southern CA coast. Latest surface observations show a 1027 mb surface high building across the northern Great Basin/Pacific Northwest. This feature is expected to strengthen over the next 24 hours to around 1036-1038 mb as it shifts into northeast NV in the wake of an amplifying upper trough. This unseasonably strong surface high (90th percentile for mid-December) will promote a strengthening offshore pressure gradient along the southern CA coast. Although relatively moist and quiescent conditions are noted along the southern CA coast in 06 UTC observations, offshore winds are forecast to increase by mid-afternoon and may gust as high as 45-60 mph by late tonight as the LAX-DAG pressure gradient strengthens to -6 to -8 mb. Warm/dry low to mid-level air was sampled above a shallow marine layer in the NKX and VGB 00 UTC soundings, suggesting that RH values will quickly fall as downslope warming/drying increases through the afternoon/overnight. Latest high-res forecast guidance suggests that RH values may fall as low as 5-15% within the higher coastal terrain. As such, critical conditions are expected with pockets of extremely critical conditions possible, especially towards 12 UTC Tuesday. ...Southwest Texas... Elevated fire weather conditions are probable this afternoon across southwest, to perhaps central, TX as a weak surface low begins to consolidate over the central southern Plains. Westerly flow on the southwestern periphery of this low should maintain low-level trajectories emanating out of southern NM/northern Mexico where dewpoints are in the low to mid 20s. While not unusually dry for mid-December, ample heating of this air mass ahead of an approaching cold front should promote RH reductions into the teens by late afternoon with wind speeds around 15 mph. While elevated conditions are probable, fuels likely remain unreceptive based on recent fuel guidance. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1018 AM CST Mon Dec 09 2024 Valid 091700Z - 101200Z ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR THE SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA COAST... No changes are needed to the current D1 Fire Weather Outlook. Though morning surface and satellite observations show the marine layer is in place across much of the coastal areas/valleys within the current Elevated and Critical risk areas, this is expected to mix out through the afternoon as offshore flow increases. Conditions will worsen through late Monday afternoon before peaking early on Tuesday. ..Thornton.. 12/09/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0129 AM CST Mon Dec 09 2024/ ...Synopsis... ...Southern CA Coast... High-end critical fire weather conditions are expected to develop later this afternoon and into the overnight hours along the southern CA coast. Latest surface observations show a 1027 mb surface high building across the northern Great Basin/Pacific Northwest. This feature is expected to strengthen over the next 24 hours to around 1036-1038 mb as it shifts into northeast NV in the wake of an amplifying upper trough. This unseasonably strong surface high (90th percentile for mid-December) will promote a strengthening offshore pressure gradient along the southern CA coast. Although relatively moist and quiescent conditions are noted along the southern CA coast in 06 UTC observations, offshore winds are forecast to increase by mid-afternoon and may gust as high as 45-60 mph by late tonight as the LAX-DAG pressure gradient strengthens to -6 to -8 mb. Warm/dry low to mid-level air was sampled above a shallow marine layer in the NKX and VGB 00 UTC soundings, suggesting that RH values will quickly fall as downslope warming/drying increases through the afternoon/overnight. Latest high-res forecast guidance suggests that RH values may fall as low as 5-15% within the higher coastal terrain. As such, critical conditions are expected with pockets of extremely critical conditions possible, especially towards 12 UTC Tuesday. ...Southwest Texas... Elevated fire weather conditions are probable this afternoon across southwest, to perhaps central, TX as a weak surface low begins to consolidate over the central southern Plains. Westerly flow on the southwestern periphery of this low should maintain low-level trajectories emanating out of southern NM/northern Mexico where dewpoints are in the low to mid 20s. While not unusually dry for mid-December, ample heating of this air mass ahead of an approaching cold front should promote RH reductions into the teens by late afternoon with wind speeds around 15 mph. While elevated conditions are probable, fuels likely remain unreceptive based on recent fuel guidance. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1018 AM CST Mon Dec 09 2024 Valid 091700Z - 101200Z ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR THE SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA COAST... No changes are needed to the current D1 Fire Weather Outlook. Though morning surface and satellite observations show the marine layer is in place across much of the coastal areas/valleys within the current Elevated and Critical risk areas, this is expected to mix out through the afternoon as offshore flow increases. Conditions will worsen through late Monday afternoon before peaking early on Tuesday. ..Thornton.. 12/09/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0129 AM CST Mon Dec 09 2024/ ...Synopsis... ...Southern CA Coast... High-end critical fire weather conditions are expected to develop later this afternoon and into the overnight hours along the southern CA coast. Latest surface observations show a 1027 mb surface high building across the northern Great Basin/Pacific Northwest. This feature is expected to strengthen over the next 24 hours to around 1036-1038 mb as it shifts into northeast NV in the wake of an amplifying upper trough. This unseasonably strong surface high (90th percentile for mid-December) will promote a strengthening offshore pressure gradient along the southern CA coast. Although relatively moist and quiescent conditions are noted along the southern CA coast in 06 UTC observations, offshore winds are forecast to increase by mid-afternoon and may gust as high as 45-60 mph by late tonight as the LAX-DAG pressure gradient strengthens to -6 to -8 mb. Warm/dry low to mid-level air was sampled above a shallow marine layer in the NKX and VGB 00 UTC soundings, suggesting that RH values will quickly fall as downslope warming/drying increases through the afternoon/overnight. Latest high-res forecast guidance suggests that RH values may fall as low as 5-15% within the higher coastal terrain. As such, critical conditions are expected with pockets of extremely critical conditions possible, especially towards 12 UTC Tuesday. ...Southwest Texas... Elevated fire weather conditions are probable this afternoon across southwest, to perhaps central, TX as a weak surface low begins to consolidate over the central southern Plains. Westerly flow on the southwestern periphery of this low should maintain low-level trajectories emanating out of southern NM/northern Mexico where dewpoints are in the low to mid 20s. While not unusually dry for mid-December, ample heating of this air mass ahead of an approaching cold front should promote RH reductions into the teens by late afternoon with wind speeds around 15 mph. While elevated conditions are probable, fuels likely remain unreceptive based on recent fuel guidance. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1018 AM CST Mon Dec 09 2024 Valid 091700Z - 101200Z ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR THE SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA COAST... No changes are needed to the current D1 Fire Weather Outlook. Though morning surface and satellite observations show the marine layer is in place across much of the coastal areas/valleys within the current Elevated and Critical risk areas, this is expected to mix out through the afternoon as offshore flow increases. Conditions will worsen through late Monday afternoon before peaking early on Tuesday. ..Thornton.. 12/09/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0129 AM CST Mon Dec 09 2024/ ...Synopsis... ...Southern CA Coast... High-end critical fire weather conditions are expected to develop later this afternoon and into the overnight hours along the southern CA coast. Latest surface observations show a 1027 mb surface high building across the northern Great Basin/Pacific Northwest. This feature is expected to strengthen over the next 24 hours to around 1036-1038 mb as it shifts into northeast NV in the wake of an amplifying upper trough. This unseasonably strong surface high (90th percentile for mid-December) will promote a strengthening offshore pressure gradient along the southern CA coast. Although relatively moist and quiescent conditions are noted along the southern CA coast in 06 UTC observations, offshore winds are forecast to increase by mid-afternoon and may gust as high as 45-60 mph by late tonight as the LAX-DAG pressure gradient strengthens to -6 to -8 mb. Warm/dry low to mid-level air was sampled above a shallow marine layer in the NKX and VGB 00 UTC soundings, suggesting that RH values will quickly fall as downslope warming/drying increases through the afternoon/overnight. Latest high-res forecast guidance suggests that RH values may fall as low as 5-15% within the higher coastal terrain. As such, critical conditions are expected with pockets of extremely critical conditions possible, especially towards 12 UTC Tuesday. ...Southwest Texas... Elevated fire weather conditions are probable this afternoon across southwest, to perhaps central, TX as a weak surface low begins to consolidate over the central southern Plains. Westerly flow on the southwestern periphery of this low should maintain low-level trajectories emanating out of southern NM/northern Mexico where dewpoints are in the low to mid 20s. While not unusually dry for mid-December, ample heating of this air mass ahead of an approaching cold front should promote RH reductions into the teens by late afternoon with wind speeds around 15 mph. While elevated conditions are probable, fuels likely remain unreceptive based on recent fuel guidance. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1018 AM CST Mon Dec 09 2024 Valid 091700Z - 101200Z ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR THE SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA COAST... No changes are needed to the current D1 Fire Weather Outlook. Though morning surface and satellite observations show the marine layer is in place across much of the coastal areas/valleys within the current Elevated and Critical risk areas, this is expected to mix out through the afternoon as offshore flow increases. Conditions will worsen through late Monday afternoon before peaking early on Tuesday. ..Thornton.. 12/09/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0129 AM CST Mon Dec 09 2024/ ...Synopsis... ...Southern CA Coast... High-end critical fire weather conditions are expected to develop later this afternoon and into the overnight hours along the southern CA coast. Latest surface observations show a 1027 mb surface high building across the northern Great Basin/Pacific Northwest. This feature is expected to strengthen over the next 24 hours to around 1036-1038 mb as it shifts into northeast NV in the wake of an amplifying upper trough. This unseasonably strong surface high (90th percentile for mid-December) will promote a strengthening offshore pressure gradient along the southern CA coast. Although relatively moist and quiescent conditions are noted along the southern CA coast in 06 UTC observations, offshore winds are forecast to increase by mid-afternoon and may gust as high as 45-60 mph by late tonight as the LAX-DAG pressure gradient strengthens to -6 to -8 mb. Warm/dry low to mid-level air was sampled above a shallow marine layer in the NKX and VGB 00 UTC soundings, suggesting that RH values will quickly fall as downslope warming/drying increases through the afternoon/overnight. Latest high-res forecast guidance suggests that RH values may fall as low as 5-15% within the higher coastal terrain. As such, critical conditions are expected with pockets of extremely critical conditions possible, especially towards 12 UTC Tuesday. ...Southwest Texas... Elevated fire weather conditions are probable this afternoon across southwest, to perhaps central, TX as a weak surface low begins to consolidate over the central southern Plains. Westerly flow on the southwestern periphery of this low should maintain low-level trajectories emanating out of southern NM/northern Mexico where dewpoints are in the low to mid 20s. While not unusually dry for mid-December, ample heating of this air mass ahead of an approaching cold front should promote RH reductions into the teens by late afternoon with wind speeds around 15 mph. While elevated conditions are probable, fuels likely remain unreceptive based on recent fuel guidance. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1018 AM CST Mon Dec 09 2024 Valid 091700Z - 101200Z ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR THE SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA COAST... No changes are needed to the current D1 Fire Weather Outlook. Though morning surface and satellite observations show the marine layer is in place across much of the coastal areas/valleys within the current Elevated and Critical risk areas, this is expected to mix out through the afternoon as offshore flow increases. Conditions will worsen through late Monday afternoon before peaking early on Tuesday. ..Thornton.. 12/09/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0129 AM CST Mon Dec 09 2024/ ...Synopsis... ...Southern CA Coast... High-end critical fire weather conditions are expected to develop later this afternoon and into the overnight hours along the southern CA coast. Latest surface observations show a 1027 mb surface high building across the northern Great Basin/Pacific Northwest. This feature is expected to strengthen over the next 24 hours to around 1036-1038 mb as it shifts into northeast NV in the wake of an amplifying upper trough. This unseasonably strong surface high (90th percentile for mid-December) will promote a strengthening offshore pressure gradient along the southern CA coast. Although relatively moist and quiescent conditions are noted along the southern CA coast in 06 UTC observations, offshore winds are forecast to increase by mid-afternoon and may gust as high as 45-60 mph by late tonight as the LAX-DAG pressure gradient strengthens to -6 to -8 mb. Warm/dry low to mid-level air was sampled above a shallow marine layer in the NKX and VGB 00 UTC soundings, suggesting that RH values will quickly fall as downslope warming/drying increases through the afternoon/overnight. Latest high-res forecast guidance suggests that RH values may fall as low as 5-15% within the higher coastal terrain. As such, critical conditions are expected with pockets of extremely critical conditions possible, especially towards 12 UTC Tuesday. ...Southwest Texas... Elevated fire weather conditions are probable this afternoon across southwest, to perhaps central, TX as a weak surface low begins to consolidate over the central southern Plains. Westerly flow on the southwestern periphery of this low should maintain low-level trajectories emanating out of southern NM/northern Mexico where dewpoints are in the low to mid 20s. While not unusually dry for mid-December, ample heating of this air mass ahead of an approaching cold front should promote RH reductions into the teens by late afternoon with wind speeds around 15 mph. While elevated conditions are probable, fuels likely remain unreceptive based on recent fuel guidance. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1018 AM CST Mon Dec 09 2024 Valid 091700Z - 101200Z ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR THE SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA COAST... No changes are needed to the current D1 Fire Weather Outlook. Though morning surface and satellite observations show the marine layer is in place across much of the coastal areas/valleys within the current Elevated and Critical risk areas, this is expected to mix out through the afternoon as offshore flow increases. Conditions will worsen through late Monday afternoon before peaking early on Tuesday. ..Thornton.. 12/09/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0129 AM CST Mon Dec 09 2024/ ...Synopsis... ...Southern CA Coast... High-end critical fire weather conditions are expected to develop later this afternoon and into the overnight hours along the southern CA coast. Latest surface observations show a 1027 mb surface high building across the northern Great Basin/Pacific Northwest. This feature is expected to strengthen over the next 24 hours to around 1036-1038 mb as it shifts into northeast NV in the wake of an amplifying upper trough. This unseasonably strong surface high (90th percentile for mid-December) will promote a strengthening offshore pressure gradient along the southern CA coast. Although relatively moist and quiescent conditions are noted along the southern CA coast in 06 UTC observations, offshore winds are forecast to increase by mid-afternoon and may gust as high as 45-60 mph by late tonight as the LAX-DAG pressure gradient strengthens to -6 to -8 mb. Warm/dry low to mid-level air was sampled above a shallow marine layer in the NKX and VGB 00 UTC soundings, suggesting that RH values will quickly fall as downslope warming/drying increases through the afternoon/overnight. Latest high-res forecast guidance suggests that RH values may fall as low as 5-15% within the higher coastal terrain. As such, critical conditions are expected with pockets of extremely critical conditions possible, especially towards 12 UTC Tuesday. ...Southwest Texas... Elevated fire weather conditions are probable this afternoon across southwest, to perhaps central, TX as a weak surface low begins to consolidate over the central southern Plains. Westerly flow on the southwestern periphery of this low should maintain low-level trajectories emanating out of southern NM/northern Mexico where dewpoints are in the low to mid 20s. While not unusually dry for mid-December, ample heating of this air mass ahead of an approaching cold front should promote RH reductions into the teens by late afternoon with wind speeds around 15 mph. While elevated conditions are probable, fuels likely remain unreceptive based on recent fuel guidance. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1018 AM CST Mon Dec 09 2024 Valid 091700Z - 101200Z ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR THE SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA COAST... No changes are needed to the current D1 Fire Weather Outlook. Though morning surface and satellite observations show the marine layer is in place across much of the coastal areas/valleys within the current Elevated and Critical risk areas, this is expected to mix out through the afternoon as offshore flow increases. Conditions will worsen through late Monday afternoon before peaking early on Tuesday. ..Thornton.. 12/09/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0129 AM CST Mon Dec 09 2024/ ...Synopsis... ...Southern CA Coast... High-end critical fire weather conditions are expected to develop later this afternoon and into the overnight hours along the southern CA coast. Latest surface observations show a 1027 mb surface high building across the northern Great Basin/Pacific Northwest. This feature is expected to strengthen over the next 24 hours to around 1036-1038 mb as it shifts into northeast NV in the wake of an amplifying upper trough. This unseasonably strong surface high (90th percentile for mid-December) will promote a strengthening offshore pressure gradient along the southern CA coast. Although relatively moist and quiescent conditions are noted along the southern CA coast in 06 UTC observations, offshore winds are forecast to increase by mid-afternoon and may gust as high as 45-60 mph by late tonight as the LAX-DAG pressure gradient strengthens to -6 to -8 mb. Warm/dry low to mid-level air was sampled above a shallow marine layer in the NKX and VGB 00 UTC soundings, suggesting that RH values will quickly fall as downslope warming/drying increases through the afternoon/overnight. Latest high-res forecast guidance suggests that RH values may fall as low as 5-15% within the higher coastal terrain. As such, critical conditions are expected with pockets of extremely critical conditions possible, especially towards 12 UTC Tuesday. ...Southwest Texas... Elevated fire weather conditions are probable this afternoon across southwest, to perhaps central, TX as a weak surface low begins to consolidate over the central southern Plains. Westerly flow on the southwestern periphery of this low should maintain low-level trajectories emanating out of southern NM/northern Mexico where dewpoints are in the low to mid 20s. While not unusually dry for mid-December, ample heating of this air mass ahead of an approaching cold front should promote RH reductions into the teens by late afternoon with wind speeds around 15 mph. While elevated conditions are probable, fuels likely remain unreceptive based on recent fuel guidance. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1008 AM CST Mon Dec 09 2024 Valid 091630Z - 101200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING ACROSS PARTS OF SOUTHERN LOUISIANA AND MISSISSIPPI.... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorms are possible from the Lower Mississippi Valley into much of the Southeast States today and tonight. Isolated strong to severe storms may affect parts of southern Louisiana and Mississippi. ...LA/MS... Morning water vapor imagery shows a low-amplitude shortwave trough moving across central TX. This feature will track into the lower MS valley this afternoon, where persistent southerly low-level winds have established a moist air mass (dewpoints in the mid-upper 60s). A large shield of precipitation has affected parts of southern LA/MS overnight and this morning, with a well-defined rain-cooled boundary along the southern edge. Morning model guidance suggests that precip will weaken this afternoon with some potential for modest destabilization and northward return of the boundary. Forecast soundings and CAM solutions suggest this corridor could have some potential for a strong storm or two later this afternoon and early evening. Vertical shear is strong enough to support rotating/bowing structures with an attendant risk of a tornado or severe wind gust. ..Hart/Squitieri.. 12/09/2024 Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1008 AM CST Mon Dec 09 2024 Valid 091630Z - 101200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING ACROSS PARTS OF SOUTHERN LOUISIANA AND MISSISSIPPI.... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorms are possible from the Lower Mississippi Valley into much of the Southeast States today and tonight. Isolated strong to severe storms may affect parts of southern Louisiana and Mississippi. ...LA/MS... Morning water vapor imagery shows a low-amplitude shortwave trough moving across central TX. This feature will track into the lower MS valley this afternoon, where persistent southerly low-level winds have established a moist air mass (dewpoints in the mid-upper 60s). A large shield of precipitation has affected parts of southern LA/MS overnight and this morning, with a well-defined rain-cooled boundary along the southern edge. Morning model guidance suggests that precip will weaken this afternoon with some potential for modest destabilization and northward return of the boundary. Forecast soundings and CAM solutions suggest this corridor could have some potential for a strong storm or two later this afternoon and early evening. Vertical shear is strong enough to support rotating/bowing structures with an attendant risk of a tornado or severe wind gust. ..Hart/Squitieri.. 12/09/2024 Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1008 AM CST Mon Dec 09 2024 Valid 091630Z - 101200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING ACROSS PARTS OF SOUTHERN LOUISIANA AND MISSISSIPPI.... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorms are possible from the Lower Mississippi Valley into much of the Southeast States today and tonight. Isolated strong to severe storms may affect parts of southern Louisiana and Mississippi. ...LA/MS... Morning water vapor imagery shows a low-amplitude shortwave trough moving across central TX. This feature will track into the lower MS valley this afternoon, where persistent southerly low-level winds have established a moist air mass (dewpoints in the mid-upper 60s). A large shield of precipitation has affected parts of southern LA/MS overnight and this morning, with a well-defined rain-cooled boundary along the southern edge. Morning model guidance suggests that precip will weaken this afternoon with some potential for modest destabilization and northward return of the boundary. Forecast soundings and CAM solutions suggest this corridor could have some potential for a strong storm or two later this afternoon and early evening. Vertical shear is strong enough to support rotating/bowing structures with an attendant risk of a tornado or severe wind gust. ..Hart/Squitieri.. 12/09/2024 Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1008 AM CST Mon Dec 09 2024 Valid 091630Z - 101200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING ACROSS PARTS OF SOUTHERN LOUISIANA AND MISSISSIPPI.... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorms are possible from the Lower Mississippi Valley into much of the Southeast States today and tonight. Isolated strong to severe storms may affect parts of southern Louisiana and Mississippi. ...LA/MS... Morning water vapor imagery shows a low-amplitude shortwave trough moving across central TX. This feature will track into the lower MS valley this afternoon, where persistent southerly low-level winds have established a moist air mass (dewpoints in the mid-upper 60s). A large shield of precipitation has affected parts of southern LA/MS overnight and this morning, with a well-defined rain-cooled boundary along the southern edge. Morning model guidance suggests that precip will weaken this afternoon with some potential for modest destabilization and northward return of the boundary. Forecast soundings and CAM solutions suggest this corridor could have some potential for a strong storm or two later this afternoon and early evening. Vertical shear is strong enough to support rotating/bowing structures with an attendant risk of a tornado or severe wind gust. ..Hart/Squitieri.. 12/09/2024 Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1008 AM CST Mon Dec 09 2024 Valid 091630Z - 101200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING ACROSS PARTS OF SOUTHERN LOUISIANA AND MISSISSIPPI.... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorms are possible from the Lower Mississippi Valley into much of the Southeast States today and tonight. Isolated strong to severe storms may affect parts of southern Louisiana and Mississippi. ...LA/MS... Morning water vapor imagery shows a low-amplitude shortwave trough moving across central TX. This feature will track into the lower MS valley this afternoon, where persistent southerly low-level winds have established a moist air mass (dewpoints in the mid-upper 60s). A large shield of precipitation has affected parts of southern LA/MS overnight and this morning, with a well-defined rain-cooled boundary along the southern edge. Morning model guidance suggests that precip will weaken this afternoon with some potential for modest destabilization and northward return of the boundary. Forecast soundings and CAM solutions suggest this corridor could have some potential for a strong storm or two later this afternoon and early evening. Vertical shear is strong enough to support rotating/bowing structures with an attendant risk of a tornado or severe wind gust. ..Hart/Squitieri.. 12/09/2024 Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1008 AM CST Mon Dec 09 2024 Valid 091630Z - 101200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING ACROSS PARTS OF SOUTHERN LOUISIANA AND MISSISSIPPI.... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorms are possible from the Lower Mississippi Valley into much of the Southeast States today and tonight. Isolated strong to severe storms may affect parts of southern Louisiana and Mississippi. ...LA/MS... Morning water vapor imagery shows a low-amplitude shortwave trough moving across central TX. This feature will track into the lower MS valley this afternoon, where persistent southerly low-level winds have established a moist air mass (dewpoints in the mid-upper 60s). A large shield of precipitation has affected parts of southern LA/MS overnight and this morning, with a well-defined rain-cooled boundary along the southern edge. Morning model guidance suggests that precip will weaken this afternoon with some potential for modest destabilization and northward return of the boundary. Forecast soundings and CAM solutions suggest this corridor could have some potential for a strong storm or two later this afternoon and early evening. Vertical shear is strong enough to support rotating/bowing structures with an attendant risk of a tornado or severe wind gust. ..Hart/Squitieri.. 12/09/2024 Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1008 AM CST Mon Dec 09 2024 Valid 091630Z - 101200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING ACROSS PARTS OF SOUTHERN LOUISIANA AND MISSISSIPPI.... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorms are possible from the Lower Mississippi Valley into much of the Southeast States today and tonight. Isolated strong to severe storms may affect parts of southern Louisiana and Mississippi. ...LA/MS... Morning water vapor imagery shows a low-amplitude shortwave trough moving across central TX. This feature will track into the lower MS valley this afternoon, where persistent southerly low-level winds have established a moist air mass (dewpoints in the mid-upper 60s). A large shield of precipitation has affected parts of southern LA/MS overnight and this morning, with a well-defined rain-cooled boundary along the southern edge. Morning model guidance suggests that precip will weaken this afternoon with some potential for modest destabilization and northward return of the boundary. Forecast soundings and CAM solutions suggest this corridor could have some potential for a strong storm or two later this afternoon and early evening. Vertical shear is strong enough to support rotating/bowing structures with an attendant risk of a tornado or severe wind gust. ..Hart/Squitieri.. 12/09/2024 Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1008 AM CST Mon Dec 09 2024 Valid 091630Z - 101200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING ACROSS PARTS OF SOUTHERN LOUISIANA AND MISSISSIPPI.... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorms are possible from the Lower Mississippi Valley into much of the Southeast States today and tonight. Isolated strong to severe storms may affect parts of southern Louisiana and Mississippi. ...LA/MS... Morning water vapor imagery shows a low-amplitude shortwave trough moving across central TX. This feature will track into the lower MS valley this afternoon, where persistent southerly low-level winds have established a moist air mass (dewpoints in the mid-upper 60s). A large shield of precipitation has affected parts of southern LA/MS overnight and this morning, with a well-defined rain-cooled boundary along the southern edge. Morning model guidance suggests that precip will weaken this afternoon with some potential for modest destabilization and northward return of the boundary. Forecast soundings and CAM solutions suggest this corridor could have some potential for a strong storm or two later this afternoon and early evening. Vertical shear is strong enough to support rotating/bowing structures with an attendant risk of a tornado or severe wind gust. ..Hart/Squitieri.. 12/09/2024 Read more

SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0657 AM CST Mon Dec 09 2024 Valid 091300Z - 101200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorms are possible from the Lower Mississippi Valley into much of the Southeast States today and tonight. The potential for severe thunderstorms currently appears low. ...Southeast States... Neutral height tendencies will tend to prevail over the region as a low-amplitude shortwave trough over the Lower Ohio Valley and Tennessee Valley races east-northward toward the Mid-Atlantic seaboard. Convergence will tend to remain weak diurnally near a northward-shifting warm front across the Tennessee Valley, until modest surface cyclogenesis occurs tonight across the ArkLaMiss and Mid-South, coincident with a stronger secondary cold front accelerating southeastward across the ArkLaMiss/East Texas. Semi-steady warm/moist advection will persist in/near the warm sector spanning parts of Louisiana/Mississippi/Alabama into eventually nearby portions of Georgia and Tennessee. The persistent warm advection regime over the middle Gulf Coast will maintain isolated thunderstorm chances through the day. Despite 40-50 knot mid-level flow, weak low to mid-level lapse rates will modulate updraft intensities and tend to limit the likelihood of overly organized convection for much of the day. The potential for thunderstorms should regionally increase tonight as the aforementioned upstream cold front/modestly deepening surface low interact with higher theta-e air. Even with favorable low-level moistening/destabilization trends, the scenario may not provide sufficient destabilization for robust deep convection tonight. As mentioned in the prior outlook discussion, most convection-allowing guidance remains rather subdued as far as severe attributes, with the typically aggressive FV3 being a modest exception. Subsequent outlooks will closely reevaluate this scenario and the potential need for low wind/tornado probabilities, as more favorable destabilization trends could prompt more of a severe risk given the severe-conducive deep-layer/low-level shear. ..Guyer/Broyles.. 12/09/2024 Read more

SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0657 AM CST Mon Dec 09 2024 Valid 091300Z - 101200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorms are possible from the Lower Mississippi Valley into much of the Southeast States today and tonight. The potential for severe thunderstorms currently appears low. ...Southeast States... Neutral height tendencies will tend to prevail over the region as a low-amplitude shortwave trough over the Lower Ohio Valley and Tennessee Valley races east-northward toward the Mid-Atlantic seaboard. Convergence will tend to remain weak diurnally near a northward-shifting warm front across the Tennessee Valley, until modest surface cyclogenesis occurs tonight across the ArkLaMiss and Mid-South, coincident with a stronger secondary cold front accelerating southeastward across the ArkLaMiss/East Texas. Semi-steady warm/moist advection will persist in/near the warm sector spanning parts of Louisiana/Mississippi/Alabama into eventually nearby portions of Georgia and Tennessee. The persistent warm advection regime over the middle Gulf Coast will maintain isolated thunderstorm chances through the day. Despite 40-50 knot mid-level flow, weak low to mid-level lapse rates will modulate updraft intensities and tend to limit the likelihood of overly organized convection for much of the day. The potential for thunderstorms should regionally increase tonight as the aforementioned upstream cold front/modestly deepening surface low interact with higher theta-e air. Even with favorable low-level moistening/destabilization trends, the scenario may not provide sufficient destabilization for robust deep convection tonight. As mentioned in the prior outlook discussion, most convection-allowing guidance remains rather subdued as far as severe attributes, with the typically aggressive FV3 being a modest exception. Subsequent outlooks will closely reevaluate this scenario and the potential need for low wind/tornado probabilities, as more favorable destabilization trends could prompt more of a severe risk given the severe-conducive deep-layer/low-level shear. ..Guyer/Broyles.. 12/09/2024 Read more

SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0657 AM CST Mon Dec 09 2024 Valid 091300Z - 101200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorms are possible from the Lower Mississippi Valley into much of the Southeast States today and tonight. The potential for severe thunderstorms currently appears low. ...Southeast States... Neutral height tendencies will tend to prevail over the region as a low-amplitude shortwave trough over the Lower Ohio Valley and Tennessee Valley races east-northward toward the Mid-Atlantic seaboard. Convergence will tend to remain weak diurnally near a northward-shifting warm front across the Tennessee Valley, until modest surface cyclogenesis occurs tonight across the ArkLaMiss and Mid-South, coincident with a stronger secondary cold front accelerating southeastward across the ArkLaMiss/East Texas. Semi-steady warm/moist advection will persist in/near the warm sector spanning parts of Louisiana/Mississippi/Alabama into eventually nearby portions of Georgia and Tennessee. The persistent warm advection regime over the middle Gulf Coast will maintain isolated thunderstorm chances through the day. Despite 40-50 knot mid-level flow, weak low to mid-level lapse rates will modulate updraft intensities and tend to limit the likelihood of overly organized convection for much of the day. The potential for thunderstorms should regionally increase tonight as the aforementioned upstream cold front/modestly deepening surface low interact with higher theta-e air. Even with favorable low-level moistening/destabilization trends, the scenario may not provide sufficient destabilization for robust deep convection tonight. As mentioned in the prior outlook discussion, most convection-allowing guidance remains rather subdued as far as severe attributes, with the typically aggressive FV3 being a modest exception. Subsequent outlooks will closely reevaluate this scenario and the potential need for low wind/tornado probabilities, as more favorable destabilization trends could prompt more of a severe risk given the severe-conducive deep-layer/low-level shear. ..Guyer/Broyles.. 12/09/2024 Read more