Severe Storms

MD 2254 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY FOR PORTIONS OF CENTRAL INTO EASTERN LOUISIANA
Mesoscale Discussion 2254 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0223 PM CST Mon Dec 09 2024 Areas affected...portions of central into eastern Louisiana Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely Valid 092023Z - 092300Z Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent SUMMARY...A isolated damaging gust or tornado cannot be ruled out this afternoon and early evening. The severe threat should remain sparse and a WW issuance is not expected. DISCUSSION...Thunderstorms have gradually been intensifying along a confluence band across portions of southern LA, where a 925-850 mb moisture axis preceding an approaching low-level trough is in place. A west-southwesterly 500 mb wind maxima is overspreading the region, contributing to elongated but mainly straight hodographs (per the latest HDC VAD) and corresponding 60+ kts of effective bulk shear (most of which should be speed based). This shear, along with diurnal heating contributing up to 500 J/kg MLCAPE, will favor some organization of convective elements within the aforementioned precipitation band. Transient supercell modes are possible. 30 kts of southwesterly 850 mb flow is also approaching from the west, and this may contribute to some additional curvature to the low-level hodograph and subsequent increase in low-level shear. As such, a damaging wind gust or tornado cannot be ruled out this afternoon in the evening. However, the overall severe threat should remain isolated, and a WW issuance is not anticipated. ..Squitieri/Hart.. 12/09/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...LIX...LCH... LAT...LON 29959290 30769119 30719039 30468989 30218975 29918973 29908998 29709072 29689147 29719231 29959290 Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0323 PM CST Mon Dec 09 2024 Valid 111200Z - 171200Z ...Days 3/Wednesday - Southern California... As a trough exits the southwest on D3/Wednesday, the surface high across the Great Basin will shift east over the Rockies with weakening surface gradients and as a result weakening of winds. Given the potential for a long period of 36-48 hours of Critical conditions prior and forecast for continued single digit humidity, a 40 percent delineation was maintained for continuance of this threat overnight Tuesday into the late morning Wednesday as winds gradually weaken. ...D3/Wednesday to D4/Thursday High/Southern Plains... As the western trough ejects across the Plains through the end of the week (D3/Wednesday through D4/Thursday), periods of dry/windy conditions are expected across the High/Southern Plains, however, fuels do not appear supportive of large-fire potential at this time. ERC forecasts do indicate fuels will dry, particularly across western Texas into eastern New Mexico, but largely remain below Critical thresholds. ...D4/Thursday Florida Peninsula... A deep long-wave trough will move across the eastern US on D4/Thursday, with attendant cold front and enhanced west to northwest flow aloft overspreading portions of the northern and central Florida Peninsula. Though the strongest flow aloft will remain to the north, there is potential for breezy surface winds around 10-15 mph to overlap relative humidity around 35-40 percent as drier and cooler air filters in behind the front. This region has received well below normal rainfall in the last 30-60 days, with ERCs approaching the 80-90th percentile. Rainfall is forecast with the frontal passage, most potential for wetting rainfall on the western coast of the peninsula. As winds and relative humidity look to be more in line with Elevated fire weather concerns and with potential for rainfall, no areas are needed at this time but trends will be monitored in the coming days given the Critical status of fuels. ..Thornton.. 12/09/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0323 PM CST Mon Dec 09 2024 Valid 111200Z - 171200Z ...Days 3/Wednesday - Southern California... As a trough exits the southwest on D3/Wednesday, the surface high across the Great Basin will shift east over the Rockies with weakening surface gradients and as a result weakening of winds. Given the potential for a long period of 36-48 hours of Critical conditions prior and forecast for continued single digit humidity, a 40 percent delineation was maintained for continuance of this threat overnight Tuesday into the late morning Wednesday as winds gradually weaken. ...D3/Wednesday to D4/Thursday High/Southern Plains... As the western trough ejects across the Plains through the end of the week (D3/Wednesday through D4/Thursday), periods of dry/windy conditions are expected across the High/Southern Plains, however, fuels do not appear supportive of large-fire potential at this time. ERC forecasts do indicate fuels will dry, particularly across western Texas into eastern New Mexico, but largely remain below Critical thresholds. ...D4/Thursday Florida Peninsula... A deep long-wave trough will move across the eastern US on D4/Thursday, with attendant cold front and enhanced west to northwest flow aloft overspreading portions of the northern and central Florida Peninsula. Though the strongest flow aloft will remain to the north, there is potential for breezy surface winds around 10-15 mph to overlap relative humidity around 35-40 percent as drier and cooler air filters in behind the front. This region has received well below normal rainfall in the last 30-60 days, with ERCs approaching the 80-90th percentile. Rainfall is forecast with the frontal passage, most potential for wetting rainfall on the western coast of the peninsula. As winds and relative humidity look to be more in line with Elevated fire weather concerns and with potential for rainfall, no areas are needed at this time but trends will be monitored in the coming days given the Critical status of fuels. ..Thornton.. 12/09/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0323 PM CST Mon Dec 09 2024 Valid 111200Z - 171200Z ...Days 3/Wednesday - Southern California... As a trough exits the southwest on D3/Wednesday, the surface high across the Great Basin will shift east over the Rockies with weakening surface gradients and as a result weakening of winds. Given the potential for a long period of 36-48 hours of Critical conditions prior and forecast for continued single digit humidity, a 40 percent delineation was maintained for continuance of this threat overnight Tuesday into the late morning Wednesday as winds gradually weaken. ...D3/Wednesday to D4/Thursday High/Southern Plains... As the western trough ejects across the Plains through the end of the week (D3/Wednesday through D4/Thursday), periods of dry/windy conditions are expected across the High/Southern Plains, however, fuels do not appear supportive of large-fire potential at this time. ERC forecasts do indicate fuels will dry, particularly across western Texas into eastern New Mexico, but largely remain below Critical thresholds. ...D4/Thursday Florida Peninsula... A deep long-wave trough will move across the eastern US on D4/Thursday, with attendant cold front and enhanced west to northwest flow aloft overspreading portions of the northern and central Florida Peninsula. Though the strongest flow aloft will remain to the north, there is potential for breezy surface winds around 10-15 mph to overlap relative humidity around 35-40 percent as drier and cooler air filters in behind the front. This region has received well below normal rainfall in the last 30-60 days, with ERCs approaching the 80-90th percentile. Rainfall is forecast with the frontal passage, most potential for wetting rainfall on the western coast of the peninsula. As winds and relative humidity look to be more in line with Elevated fire weather concerns and with potential for rainfall, no areas are needed at this time but trends will be monitored in the coming days given the Critical status of fuels. ..Thornton.. 12/09/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0323 PM CST Mon Dec 09 2024 Valid 111200Z - 171200Z ...Days 3/Wednesday - Southern California... As a trough exits the southwest on D3/Wednesday, the surface high across the Great Basin will shift east over the Rockies with weakening surface gradients and as a result weakening of winds. Given the potential for a long period of 36-48 hours of Critical conditions prior and forecast for continued single digit humidity, a 40 percent delineation was maintained for continuance of this threat overnight Tuesday into the late morning Wednesday as winds gradually weaken. ...D3/Wednesday to D4/Thursday High/Southern Plains... As the western trough ejects across the Plains through the end of the week (D3/Wednesday through D4/Thursday), periods of dry/windy conditions are expected across the High/Southern Plains, however, fuels do not appear supportive of large-fire potential at this time. ERC forecasts do indicate fuels will dry, particularly across western Texas into eastern New Mexico, but largely remain below Critical thresholds. ...D4/Thursday Florida Peninsula... A deep long-wave trough will move across the eastern US on D4/Thursday, with attendant cold front and enhanced west to northwest flow aloft overspreading portions of the northern and central Florida Peninsula. Though the strongest flow aloft will remain to the north, there is potential for breezy surface winds around 10-15 mph to overlap relative humidity around 35-40 percent as drier and cooler air filters in behind the front. This region has received well below normal rainfall in the last 30-60 days, with ERCs approaching the 80-90th percentile. Rainfall is forecast with the frontal passage, most potential for wetting rainfall on the western coast of the peninsula. As winds and relative humidity look to be more in line with Elevated fire weather concerns and with potential for rainfall, no areas are needed at this time but trends will be monitored in the coming days given the Critical status of fuels. ..Thornton.. 12/09/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0323 PM CST Mon Dec 09 2024 Valid 111200Z - 171200Z ...Days 3/Wednesday - Southern California... As a trough exits the southwest on D3/Wednesday, the surface high across the Great Basin will shift east over the Rockies with weakening surface gradients and as a result weakening of winds. Given the potential for a long period of 36-48 hours of Critical conditions prior and forecast for continued single digit humidity, a 40 percent delineation was maintained for continuance of this threat overnight Tuesday into the late morning Wednesday as winds gradually weaken. ...D3/Wednesday to D4/Thursday High/Southern Plains... As the western trough ejects across the Plains through the end of the week (D3/Wednesday through D4/Thursday), periods of dry/windy conditions are expected across the High/Southern Plains, however, fuels do not appear supportive of large-fire potential at this time. ERC forecasts do indicate fuels will dry, particularly across western Texas into eastern New Mexico, but largely remain below Critical thresholds. ...D4/Thursday Florida Peninsula... A deep long-wave trough will move across the eastern US on D4/Thursday, with attendant cold front and enhanced west to northwest flow aloft overspreading portions of the northern and central Florida Peninsula. Though the strongest flow aloft will remain to the north, there is potential for breezy surface winds around 10-15 mph to overlap relative humidity around 35-40 percent as drier and cooler air filters in behind the front. This region has received well below normal rainfall in the last 30-60 days, with ERCs approaching the 80-90th percentile. Rainfall is forecast with the frontal passage, most potential for wetting rainfall on the western coast of the peninsula. As winds and relative humidity look to be more in line with Elevated fire weather concerns and with potential for rainfall, no areas are needed at this time but trends will be monitored in the coming days given the Critical status of fuels. ..Thornton.. 12/09/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0323 PM CST Mon Dec 09 2024 Valid 111200Z - 171200Z ...Days 3/Wednesday - Southern California... As a trough exits the southwest on D3/Wednesday, the surface high across the Great Basin will shift east over the Rockies with weakening surface gradients and as a result weakening of winds. Given the potential for a long period of 36-48 hours of Critical conditions prior and forecast for continued single digit humidity, a 40 percent delineation was maintained for continuance of this threat overnight Tuesday into the late morning Wednesday as winds gradually weaken. ...D3/Wednesday to D4/Thursday High/Southern Plains... As the western trough ejects across the Plains through the end of the week (D3/Wednesday through D4/Thursday), periods of dry/windy conditions are expected across the High/Southern Plains, however, fuels do not appear supportive of large-fire potential at this time. ERC forecasts do indicate fuels will dry, particularly across western Texas into eastern New Mexico, but largely remain below Critical thresholds. ...D4/Thursday Florida Peninsula... A deep long-wave trough will move across the eastern US on D4/Thursday, with attendant cold front and enhanced west to northwest flow aloft overspreading portions of the northern and central Florida Peninsula. Though the strongest flow aloft will remain to the north, there is potential for breezy surface winds around 10-15 mph to overlap relative humidity around 35-40 percent as drier and cooler air filters in behind the front. This region has received well below normal rainfall in the last 30-60 days, with ERCs approaching the 80-90th percentile. Rainfall is forecast with the frontal passage, most potential for wetting rainfall on the western coast of the peninsula. As winds and relative humidity look to be more in line with Elevated fire weather concerns and with potential for rainfall, no areas are needed at this time but trends will be monitored in the coming days given the Critical status of fuels. ..Thornton.. 12/09/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0323 PM CST Mon Dec 09 2024 Valid 111200Z - 171200Z ...Days 3/Wednesday - Southern California... As a trough exits the southwest on D3/Wednesday, the surface high across the Great Basin will shift east over the Rockies with weakening surface gradients and as a result weakening of winds. Given the potential for a long period of 36-48 hours of Critical conditions prior and forecast for continued single digit humidity, a 40 percent delineation was maintained for continuance of this threat overnight Tuesday into the late morning Wednesday as winds gradually weaken. ...D3/Wednesday to D4/Thursday High/Southern Plains... As the western trough ejects across the Plains through the end of the week (D3/Wednesday through D4/Thursday), periods of dry/windy conditions are expected across the High/Southern Plains, however, fuels do not appear supportive of large-fire potential at this time. ERC forecasts do indicate fuels will dry, particularly across western Texas into eastern New Mexico, but largely remain below Critical thresholds. ...D4/Thursday Florida Peninsula... A deep long-wave trough will move across the eastern US on D4/Thursday, with attendant cold front and enhanced west to northwest flow aloft overspreading portions of the northern and central Florida Peninsula. Though the strongest flow aloft will remain to the north, there is potential for breezy surface winds around 10-15 mph to overlap relative humidity around 35-40 percent as drier and cooler air filters in behind the front. This region has received well below normal rainfall in the last 30-60 days, with ERCs approaching the 80-90th percentile. Rainfall is forecast with the frontal passage, most potential for wetting rainfall on the western coast of the peninsula. As winds and relative humidity look to be more in line with Elevated fire weather concerns and with potential for rainfall, no areas are needed at this time but trends will be monitored in the coming days given the Critical status of fuels. ..Thornton.. 12/09/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0144 PM CST Mon Dec 09 2024 Valid 092000Z - 101200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS SOUTHEASTERN LOUISIANA INTO SOUTHERN MISSISSIPPI... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorms are possible from the Lower Mississippi Valley into much of the Southeast States today and tonight. Isolated strong to severe storms may affect parts of southern Louisiana and Mississippi. ...20Z Update... No changes to the ongoing forecast. Prior forecast reasoning remains valid as some destabilization has occurred in parts of southern Louisiana into southern Mississippi. The strongest storms could produce damaging winds or a tornado. ..Wendt.. 12/09/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1008 AM CST Mon Dec 09 2024/ ...LA/MS... Morning water vapor imagery shows a low-amplitude shortwave trough moving across central TX. This feature will track into the lower MS valley this afternoon, where persistent southerly low-level winds have established a moist air mass (dewpoints in the mid-upper 60s). A large shield of precipitation has affected parts of southern LA/MS overnight and this morning, with a well-defined rain-cooled boundary along the southern edge. Morning model guidance suggests that precip will weaken this afternoon with some potential for modest destabilization and northward return of the boundary. Forecast soundings and CAM solutions suggest this corridor could have some potential for a strong storm or two later this afternoon and early evening. Vertical shear is strong enough to support rotating/bowing structures with an attendant risk of a tornado or severe wind gust. Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0144 PM CST Mon Dec 09 2024 Valid 092000Z - 101200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS SOUTHEASTERN LOUISIANA INTO SOUTHERN MISSISSIPPI... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorms are possible from the Lower Mississippi Valley into much of the Southeast States today and tonight. Isolated strong to severe storms may affect parts of southern Louisiana and Mississippi. ...20Z Update... No changes to the ongoing forecast. Prior forecast reasoning remains valid as some destabilization has occurred in parts of southern Louisiana into southern Mississippi. The strongest storms could produce damaging winds or a tornado. ..Wendt.. 12/09/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1008 AM CST Mon Dec 09 2024/ ...LA/MS... Morning water vapor imagery shows a low-amplitude shortwave trough moving across central TX. This feature will track into the lower MS valley this afternoon, where persistent southerly low-level winds have established a moist air mass (dewpoints in the mid-upper 60s). A large shield of precipitation has affected parts of southern LA/MS overnight and this morning, with a well-defined rain-cooled boundary along the southern edge. Morning model guidance suggests that precip will weaken this afternoon with some potential for modest destabilization and northward return of the boundary. Forecast soundings and CAM solutions suggest this corridor could have some potential for a strong storm or two later this afternoon and early evening. Vertical shear is strong enough to support rotating/bowing structures with an attendant risk of a tornado or severe wind gust. Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0144 PM CST Mon Dec 09 2024 Valid 092000Z - 101200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS SOUTHEASTERN LOUISIANA INTO SOUTHERN MISSISSIPPI... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorms are possible from the Lower Mississippi Valley into much of the Southeast States today and tonight. Isolated strong to severe storms may affect parts of southern Louisiana and Mississippi. ...20Z Update... No changes to the ongoing forecast. Prior forecast reasoning remains valid as some destabilization has occurred in parts of southern Louisiana into southern Mississippi. The strongest storms could produce damaging winds or a tornado. ..Wendt.. 12/09/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1008 AM CST Mon Dec 09 2024/ ...LA/MS... Morning water vapor imagery shows a low-amplitude shortwave trough moving across central TX. This feature will track into the lower MS valley this afternoon, where persistent southerly low-level winds have established a moist air mass (dewpoints in the mid-upper 60s). A large shield of precipitation has affected parts of southern LA/MS overnight and this morning, with a well-defined rain-cooled boundary along the southern edge. Morning model guidance suggests that precip will weaken this afternoon with some potential for modest destabilization and northward return of the boundary. Forecast soundings and CAM solutions suggest this corridor could have some potential for a strong storm or two later this afternoon and early evening. Vertical shear is strong enough to support rotating/bowing structures with an attendant risk of a tornado or severe wind gust. Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0144 PM CST Mon Dec 09 2024 Valid 092000Z - 101200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS SOUTHEASTERN LOUISIANA INTO SOUTHERN MISSISSIPPI... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorms are possible from the Lower Mississippi Valley into much of the Southeast States today and tonight. Isolated strong to severe storms may affect parts of southern Louisiana and Mississippi. ...20Z Update... No changes to the ongoing forecast. Prior forecast reasoning remains valid as some destabilization has occurred in parts of southern Louisiana into southern Mississippi. The strongest storms could produce damaging winds or a tornado. ..Wendt.. 12/09/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1008 AM CST Mon Dec 09 2024/ ...LA/MS... Morning water vapor imagery shows a low-amplitude shortwave trough moving across central TX. This feature will track into the lower MS valley this afternoon, where persistent southerly low-level winds have established a moist air mass (dewpoints in the mid-upper 60s). A large shield of precipitation has affected parts of southern LA/MS overnight and this morning, with a well-defined rain-cooled boundary along the southern edge. Morning model guidance suggests that precip will weaken this afternoon with some potential for modest destabilization and northward return of the boundary. Forecast soundings and CAM solutions suggest this corridor could have some potential for a strong storm or two later this afternoon and early evening. Vertical shear is strong enough to support rotating/bowing structures with an attendant risk of a tornado or severe wind gust. Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0144 PM CST Mon Dec 09 2024 Valid 092000Z - 101200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS SOUTHEASTERN LOUISIANA INTO SOUTHERN MISSISSIPPI... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorms are possible from the Lower Mississippi Valley into much of the Southeast States today and tonight. Isolated strong to severe storms may affect parts of southern Louisiana and Mississippi. ...20Z Update... No changes to the ongoing forecast. Prior forecast reasoning remains valid as some destabilization has occurred in parts of southern Louisiana into southern Mississippi. The strongest storms could produce damaging winds or a tornado. ..Wendt.. 12/09/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1008 AM CST Mon Dec 09 2024/ ...LA/MS... Morning water vapor imagery shows a low-amplitude shortwave trough moving across central TX. This feature will track into the lower MS valley this afternoon, where persistent southerly low-level winds have established a moist air mass (dewpoints in the mid-upper 60s). A large shield of precipitation has affected parts of southern LA/MS overnight and this morning, with a well-defined rain-cooled boundary along the southern edge. Morning model guidance suggests that precip will weaken this afternoon with some potential for modest destabilization and northward return of the boundary. Forecast soundings and CAM solutions suggest this corridor could have some potential for a strong storm or two later this afternoon and early evening. Vertical shear is strong enough to support rotating/bowing structures with an attendant risk of a tornado or severe wind gust. Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0144 PM CST Mon Dec 09 2024 Valid 092000Z - 101200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS SOUTHEASTERN LOUISIANA INTO SOUTHERN MISSISSIPPI... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorms are possible from the Lower Mississippi Valley into much of the Southeast States today and tonight. Isolated strong to severe storms may affect parts of southern Louisiana and Mississippi. ...20Z Update... No changes to the ongoing forecast. Prior forecast reasoning remains valid as some destabilization has occurred in parts of southern Louisiana into southern Mississippi. The strongest storms could produce damaging winds or a tornado. ..Wendt.. 12/09/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1008 AM CST Mon Dec 09 2024/ ...LA/MS... Morning water vapor imagery shows a low-amplitude shortwave trough moving across central TX. This feature will track into the lower MS valley this afternoon, where persistent southerly low-level winds have established a moist air mass (dewpoints in the mid-upper 60s). A large shield of precipitation has affected parts of southern LA/MS overnight and this morning, with a well-defined rain-cooled boundary along the southern edge. Morning model guidance suggests that precip will weaken this afternoon with some potential for modest destabilization and northward return of the boundary. Forecast soundings and CAM solutions suggest this corridor could have some potential for a strong storm or two later this afternoon and early evening. Vertical shear is strong enough to support rotating/bowing structures with an attendant risk of a tornado or severe wind gust. Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0144 PM CST Mon Dec 09 2024 Valid 092000Z - 101200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS SOUTHEASTERN LOUISIANA INTO SOUTHERN MISSISSIPPI... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorms are possible from the Lower Mississippi Valley into much of the Southeast States today and tonight. Isolated strong to severe storms may affect parts of southern Louisiana and Mississippi. ...20Z Update... No changes to the ongoing forecast. Prior forecast reasoning remains valid as some destabilization has occurred in parts of southern Louisiana into southern Mississippi. The strongest storms could produce damaging winds or a tornado. ..Wendt.. 12/09/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1008 AM CST Mon Dec 09 2024/ ...LA/MS... Morning water vapor imagery shows a low-amplitude shortwave trough moving across central TX. This feature will track into the lower MS valley this afternoon, where persistent southerly low-level winds have established a moist air mass (dewpoints in the mid-upper 60s). A large shield of precipitation has affected parts of southern LA/MS overnight and this morning, with a well-defined rain-cooled boundary along the southern edge. Morning model guidance suggests that precip will weaken this afternoon with some potential for modest destabilization and northward return of the boundary. Forecast soundings and CAM solutions suggest this corridor could have some potential for a strong storm or two later this afternoon and early evening. Vertical shear is strong enough to support rotating/bowing structures with an attendant risk of a tornado or severe wind gust. Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0144 PM CST Mon Dec 09 2024 Valid 092000Z - 101200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS SOUTHEASTERN LOUISIANA INTO SOUTHERN MISSISSIPPI... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorms are possible from the Lower Mississippi Valley into much of the Southeast States today and tonight. Isolated strong to severe storms may affect parts of southern Louisiana and Mississippi. ...20Z Update... No changes to the ongoing forecast. Prior forecast reasoning remains valid as some destabilization has occurred in parts of southern Louisiana into southern Mississippi. The strongest storms could produce damaging winds or a tornado. ..Wendt.. 12/09/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1008 AM CST Mon Dec 09 2024/ ...LA/MS... Morning water vapor imagery shows a low-amplitude shortwave trough moving across central TX. This feature will track into the lower MS valley this afternoon, where persistent southerly low-level winds have established a moist air mass (dewpoints in the mid-upper 60s). A large shield of precipitation has affected parts of southern LA/MS overnight and this morning, with a well-defined rain-cooled boundary along the southern edge. Morning model guidance suggests that precip will weaken this afternoon with some potential for modest destabilization and northward return of the boundary. Forecast soundings and CAM solutions suggest this corridor could have some potential for a strong storm or two later this afternoon and early evening. Vertical shear is strong enough to support rotating/bowing structures with an attendant risk of a tornado or severe wind gust. Read more

No Mesoscale Discussions are in effect as of Mon Dec 9 19:49:01 UTC 2024.

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0140 PM CST Mon Dec 09 2024 Valid 101200Z - 111200Z ...EXTREMELY CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA COAST... ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR THE SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA COAST... No changes are needed to the current D2 Fire Weather Outlook. Some consideration was given to adding an Extremely Critical area to the mountains and foothills in San Diego County. In coordination with local partners, it appears the threat here may remain too isolated to warrant inclusion of areas at this time. Extremely Critical conditions will likely be ongoing at the start of the D2 period across the mountains and foothills in Ventura and Los Angeles counties. Overnight recovery is expected to be extremely poor, with long duration Critical to Extremely Critical conditions Monday into Tuesday. ..Thornton.. 12/09/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0146 AM CST Mon Dec 09 2024/ ...Synopsis... Critical to extremely critical fire weather conditions are expected Tuesday morning along the southern California coast. An unseasonably strong surface high across the northern Great Basin will maintain a robust offshore pressure gradient along the southern CA coast for much of Tuesday and into early Wednesday (see the current D1 Fire Outlook for additional details regarding the synoptic regime). Recent guidance continues to suggest that the LAX-DAG gradient should peak sometime during the 12-17 UTC period Tuesday morning at around -9 to -10 mb. A gradient of this magnitude typically supports wind gusts within the coastal terrain between 50-70 mph, though localized stronger gusts appear possible based on some high-res solutions. By early Tuesday morning the offshore flow regime will be well established with 12 hours of preceding downslope warming/drying. Not only will this support more widespread areas of single-digit RH values (and extremely critical fire weather conditions), but should also promote rapid curing/drying of 1 and 10-hour fuels. Consequently, the greatest fire weather threat will likely emerge Tuesday morning. Recent ensemble guidance and high-res deterministic solutions suggests extremely critical conditions will be most widespread across western Los Angeles and eastern Ventura counties within the San Gabriel and Sierra Madre mountains, though localized extremely critical conditions will be possible further south along the southern CA coast. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0140 PM CST Mon Dec 09 2024 Valid 101200Z - 111200Z ...EXTREMELY CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA COAST... ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR THE SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA COAST... No changes are needed to the current D2 Fire Weather Outlook. Some consideration was given to adding an Extremely Critical area to the mountains and foothills in San Diego County. In coordination with local partners, it appears the threat here may remain too isolated to warrant inclusion of areas at this time. Extremely Critical conditions will likely be ongoing at the start of the D2 period across the mountains and foothills in Ventura and Los Angeles counties. Overnight recovery is expected to be extremely poor, with long duration Critical to Extremely Critical conditions Monday into Tuesday. ..Thornton.. 12/09/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0146 AM CST Mon Dec 09 2024/ ...Synopsis... Critical to extremely critical fire weather conditions are expected Tuesday morning along the southern California coast. An unseasonably strong surface high across the northern Great Basin will maintain a robust offshore pressure gradient along the southern CA coast for much of Tuesday and into early Wednesday (see the current D1 Fire Outlook for additional details regarding the synoptic regime). Recent guidance continues to suggest that the LAX-DAG gradient should peak sometime during the 12-17 UTC period Tuesday morning at around -9 to -10 mb. A gradient of this magnitude typically supports wind gusts within the coastal terrain between 50-70 mph, though localized stronger gusts appear possible based on some high-res solutions. By early Tuesday morning the offshore flow regime will be well established with 12 hours of preceding downslope warming/drying. Not only will this support more widespread areas of single-digit RH values (and extremely critical fire weather conditions), but should also promote rapid curing/drying of 1 and 10-hour fuels. Consequently, the greatest fire weather threat will likely emerge Tuesday morning. Recent ensemble guidance and high-res deterministic solutions suggests extremely critical conditions will be most widespread across western Los Angeles and eastern Ventura counties within the San Gabriel and Sierra Madre mountains, though localized extremely critical conditions will be possible further south along the southern CA coast. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0140 PM CST Mon Dec 09 2024 Valid 101200Z - 111200Z ...EXTREMELY CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA COAST... ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR THE SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA COAST... No changes are needed to the current D2 Fire Weather Outlook. Some consideration was given to adding an Extremely Critical area to the mountains and foothills in San Diego County. In coordination with local partners, it appears the threat here may remain too isolated to warrant inclusion of areas at this time. Extremely Critical conditions will likely be ongoing at the start of the D2 period across the mountains and foothills in Ventura and Los Angeles counties. Overnight recovery is expected to be extremely poor, with long duration Critical to Extremely Critical conditions Monday into Tuesday. ..Thornton.. 12/09/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0146 AM CST Mon Dec 09 2024/ ...Synopsis... Critical to extremely critical fire weather conditions are expected Tuesday morning along the southern California coast. An unseasonably strong surface high across the northern Great Basin will maintain a robust offshore pressure gradient along the southern CA coast for much of Tuesday and into early Wednesday (see the current D1 Fire Outlook for additional details regarding the synoptic regime). Recent guidance continues to suggest that the LAX-DAG gradient should peak sometime during the 12-17 UTC period Tuesday morning at around -9 to -10 mb. A gradient of this magnitude typically supports wind gusts within the coastal terrain between 50-70 mph, though localized stronger gusts appear possible based on some high-res solutions. By early Tuesday morning the offshore flow regime will be well established with 12 hours of preceding downslope warming/drying. Not only will this support more widespread areas of single-digit RH values (and extremely critical fire weather conditions), but should also promote rapid curing/drying of 1 and 10-hour fuels. Consequently, the greatest fire weather threat will likely emerge Tuesday morning. Recent ensemble guidance and high-res deterministic solutions suggests extremely critical conditions will be most widespread across western Los Angeles and eastern Ventura counties within the San Gabriel and Sierra Madre mountains, though localized extremely critical conditions will be possible further south along the southern CA coast. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more