Severe Storms

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0102 AM CST Tue Dec 10 2024 Valid 101200Z - 111200Z ...EXTREMELY CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA COAST... ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR THE SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA COAST... ...Synopsis... Critical to extremely critical fire weather conditions are expected today along the southern CA coast, posing a high-end fire weather threat. 06 UTC surface observations within the southern CA coastal mountains are showing widespread RH reductions into the low to mid teens with sustained winds between 25-35 mph and frequent gusts upwards of 40-50 mph (occasionally gusting to 60-75 mph in a few locations). Other observed trends across the region suggest that winds will increase through the early to mid-morning hours (most likely peaking during the 12-17 UTC period). Surface pressure obs across northeast NV are reporting a 1036 mb surface high with further pressure rises to around 1037-1039 mb expected through 15 UTC. Additionally, latest upper-air analyses show a low to mid-level cold front pushing south into southern CA. The arrival of the cooler/more dense air mass and stronger mid-level flow, accompanied by further surface pressure rises, should result in strengthening winds through the morning hours. The observed LAX-DAG pressure gradient has also been trending lower (i.e. stronger) than depicted by most deterministic solutions, but guidance that has captured recent trends well shows increasingly widespread 60+ mph wind gusts within the Sierra Madre, San Gabriel, and San Jacinto mountains by mid-morning. Single-digit RH values will also become more common by the afternoon hours, given the duration of the downslope wind event coupled with the diurnal heating cycle. The prolonged nature of the event is also promoting rapid drying of 1- and 10-hour fuels, which will increase the fire weather threat through the day. Extremely critical wind speeds will gradually begin to abate after roughly 20 UTC, as the surface high over the Great Basin begins to weaken. However, widespread critical fire weather conditions should still persist well into early Wednesday morning. ..Moore.. 12/10/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC 0700Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1256 AM CST Tue Dec 10 2024 Valid 111200Z - 121200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM EASTERN NC INTO SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND... ...SUMMARY... Strong to isolated severe thunderstorms are possible along and ahead of a cold front from eastern North Carolina into southern New England on Wednesday. ...Synopsis... A deep upper trough is expected to extend from central Canada southward along the length of the MS Valley into the western Gulf early Wednesday morning. A shortwave trough embedded within the base of this larger troughing is forecast to move quickly northeastward from the Lower MS Valley into the Mid-Atlantic. In response, the parent upper troughing will shift eastward while also deamplifying. Strong mid/upper flow is anticipated throughout the eastern periphery of this troughing, with a 100-110 kt 500 mb jet shifting northeastward from the Southeast into the Mid-Atlantic throughout the day. An associated surface low will deepen as it moves northeastward from northern VA through the Hudson Valley into NH/VT. An attendant cold front is forecast to sharpens as it moves quickly eastward, moving off the East Coast by Wednesday evening. ...Eastern North Carolina to southern New England... Low to mid 60s dewpoints are expected to advect northward into the Carolinas and northern Mid-Atlantic States ahead of the approaching cold front, with mid to upper 50s possible farther north into southern New England. These dewpoints will support modest buoyancy, with the overall buoyancy tempered by poor mid-level lapse rates and widespread precipitation. Even so, a strongly forced convective line is still expected to develop along the front as it moves quickly eastward across the region during the afternoon. Deeper convection is anticipated in this line when increasing large-scale ascent aligns with the low-level forcing along the front. Guidance differs on when and where this occurs, with some guidance suggesting it occurs primarily offshore. Even so, there is still enough potential for this occur onshore to maintain probabilities for strong gusts. Expectation is for this deeper convection to combine with the robust kinematic fields to provide a large reservoir of high-momentum air capable of mixing down to the surface. Given the strength of the forcing, this potential exists as far north across southern New England where buoyancy is expected to be very low. Additionally, some potential exists for surface-based storms within the warm sector ahead of the front, provided that antecedent precipitation does not entirely stabilize the low levels. Some guidance suggests a pre-frontal band of surface-based storms develops with low-level confluence within the warm sector over coastal NC and the Outer Banks. ..Mosier.. 12/10/2024 Read more

SPC 0700Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1256 AM CST Tue Dec 10 2024 Valid 111200Z - 121200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM EASTERN NC INTO SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND... ...SUMMARY... Strong to isolated severe thunderstorms are possible along and ahead of a cold front from eastern North Carolina into southern New England on Wednesday. ...Synopsis... A deep upper trough is expected to extend from central Canada southward along the length of the MS Valley into the western Gulf early Wednesday morning. A shortwave trough embedded within the base of this larger troughing is forecast to move quickly northeastward from the Lower MS Valley into the Mid-Atlantic. In response, the parent upper troughing will shift eastward while also deamplifying. Strong mid/upper flow is anticipated throughout the eastern periphery of this troughing, with a 100-110 kt 500 mb jet shifting northeastward from the Southeast into the Mid-Atlantic throughout the day. An associated surface low will deepen as it moves northeastward from northern VA through the Hudson Valley into NH/VT. An attendant cold front is forecast to sharpens as it moves quickly eastward, moving off the East Coast by Wednesday evening. ...Eastern North Carolina to southern New England... Low to mid 60s dewpoints are expected to advect northward into the Carolinas and northern Mid-Atlantic States ahead of the approaching cold front, with mid to upper 50s possible farther north into southern New England. These dewpoints will support modest buoyancy, with the overall buoyancy tempered by poor mid-level lapse rates and widespread precipitation. Even so, a strongly forced convective line is still expected to develop along the front as it moves quickly eastward across the region during the afternoon. Deeper convection is anticipated in this line when increasing large-scale ascent aligns with the low-level forcing along the front. Guidance differs on when and where this occurs, with some guidance suggesting it occurs primarily offshore. Even so, there is still enough potential for this occur onshore to maintain probabilities for strong gusts. Expectation is for this deeper convection to combine with the robust kinematic fields to provide a large reservoir of high-momentum air capable of mixing down to the surface. Given the strength of the forcing, this potential exists as far north across southern New England where buoyancy is expected to be very low. Additionally, some potential exists for surface-based storms within the warm sector ahead of the front, provided that antecedent precipitation does not entirely stabilize the low levels. Some guidance suggests a pre-frontal band of surface-based storms develops with low-level confluence within the warm sector over coastal NC and the Outer Banks. ..Mosier.. 12/10/2024 Read more

SPC 0700Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1256 AM CST Tue Dec 10 2024 Valid 111200Z - 121200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM EASTERN NC INTO SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND... ...SUMMARY... Strong to isolated severe thunderstorms are possible along and ahead of a cold front from eastern North Carolina into southern New England on Wednesday. ...Synopsis... A deep upper trough is expected to extend from central Canada southward along the length of the MS Valley into the western Gulf early Wednesday morning. A shortwave trough embedded within the base of this larger troughing is forecast to move quickly northeastward from the Lower MS Valley into the Mid-Atlantic. In response, the parent upper troughing will shift eastward while also deamplifying. Strong mid/upper flow is anticipated throughout the eastern periphery of this troughing, with a 100-110 kt 500 mb jet shifting northeastward from the Southeast into the Mid-Atlantic throughout the day. An associated surface low will deepen as it moves northeastward from northern VA through the Hudson Valley into NH/VT. An attendant cold front is forecast to sharpens as it moves quickly eastward, moving off the East Coast by Wednesday evening. ...Eastern North Carolina to southern New England... Low to mid 60s dewpoints are expected to advect northward into the Carolinas and northern Mid-Atlantic States ahead of the approaching cold front, with mid to upper 50s possible farther north into southern New England. These dewpoints will support modest buoyancy, with the overall buoyancy tempered by poor mid-level lapse rates and widespread precipitation. Even so, a strongly forced convective line is still expected to develop along the front as it moves quickly eastward across the region during the afternoon. Deeper convection is anticipated in this line when increasing large-scale ascent aligns with the low-level forcing along the front. Guidance differs on when and where this occurs, with some guidance suggesting it occurs primarily offshore. Even so, there is still enough potential for this occur onshore to maintain probabilities for strong gusts. Expectation is for this deeper convection to combine with the robust kinematic fields to provide a large reservoir of high-momentum air capable of mixing down to the surface. Given the strength of the forcing, this potential exists as far north across southern New England where buoyancy is expected to be very low. Additionally, some potential exists for surface-based storms within the warm sector ahead of the front, provided that antecedent precipitation does not entirely stabilize the low levels. Some guidance suggests a pre-frontal band of surface-based storms develops with low-level confluence within the warm sector over coastal NC and the Outer Banks. ..Mosier.. 12/10/2024 Read more

SPC 0700Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1256 AM CST Tue Dec 10 2024 Valid 111200Z - 121200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM EASTERN NC INTO SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND... ...SUMMARY... Strong to isolated severe thunderstorms are possible along and ahead of a cold front from eastern North Carolina into southern New England on Wednesday. ...Synopsis... A deep upper trough is expected to extend from central Canada southward along the length of the MS Valley into the western Gulf early Wednesday morning. A shortwave trough embedded within the base of this larger troughing is forecast to move quickly northeastward from the Lower MS Valley into the Mid-Atlantic. In response, the parent upper troughing will shift eastward while also deamplifying. Strong mid/upper flow is anticipated throughout the eastern periphery of this troughing, with a 100-110 kt 500 mb jet shifting northeastward from the Southeast into the Mid-Atlantic throughout the day. An associated surface low will deepen as it moves northeastward from northern VA through the Hudson Valley into NH/VT. An attendant cold front is forecast to sharpens as it moves quickly eastward, moving off the East Coast by Wednesday evening. ...Eastern North Carolina to southern New England... Low to mid 60s dewpoints are expected to advect northward into the Carolinas and northern Mid-Atlantic States ahead of the approaching cold front, with mid to upper 50s possible farther north into southern New England. These dewpoints will support modest buoyancy, with the overall buoyancy tempered by poor mid-level lapse rates and widespread precipitation. Even so, a strongly forced convective line is still expected to develop along the front as it moves quickly eastward across the region during the afternoon. Deeper convection is anticipated in this line when increasing large-scale ascent aligns with the low-level forcing along the front. Guidance differs on when and where this occurs, with some guidance suggesting it occurs primarily offshore. Even so, there is still enough potential for this occur onshore to maintain probabilities for strong gusts. Expectation is for this deeper convection to combine with the robust kinematic fields to provide a large reservoir of high-momentum air capable of mixing down to the surface. Given the strength of the forcing, this potential exists as far north across southern New England where buoyancy is expected to be very low. Additionally, some potential exists for surface-based storms within the warm sector ahead of the front, provided that antecedent precipitation does not entirely stabilize the low levels. Some guidance suggests a pre-frontal band of surface-based storms develops with low-level confluence within the warm sector over coastal NC and the Outer Banks. ..Mosier.. 12/10/2024 Read more

SPC 0700Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1256 AM CST Tue Dec 10 2024 Valid 111200Z - 121200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM EASTERN NC INTO SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND... ...SUMMARY... Strong to isolated severe thunderstorms are possible along and ahead of a cold front from eastern North Carolina into southern New England on Wednesday. ...Synopsis... A deep upper trough is expected to extend from central Canada southward along the length of the MS Valley into the western Gulf early Wednesday morning. A shortwave trough embedded within the base of this larger troughing is forecast to move quickly northeastward from the Lower MS Valley into the Mid-Atlantic. In response, the parent upper troughing will shift eastward while also deamplifying. Strong mid/upper flow is anticipated throughout the eastern periphery of this troughing, with a 100-110 kt 500 mb jet shifting northeastward from the Southeast into the Mid-Atlantic throughout the day. An associated surface low will deepen as it moves northeastward from northern VA through the Hudson Valley into NH/VT. An attendant cold front is forecast to sharpens as it moves quickly eastward, moving off the East Coast by Wednesday evening. ...Eastern North Carolina to southern New England... Low to mid 60s dewpoints are expected to advect northward into the Carolinas and northern Mid-Atlantic States ahead of the approaching cold front, with mid to upper 50s possible farther north into southern New England. These dewpoints will support modest buoyancy, with the overall buoyancy tempered by poor mid-level lapse rates and widespread precipitation. Even so, a strongly forced convective line is still expected to develop along the front as it moves quickly eastward across the region during the afternoon. Deeper convection is anticipated in this line when increasing large-scale ascent aligns with the low-level forcing along the front. Guidance differs on when and where this occurs, with some guidance suggesting it occurs primarily offshore. Even so, there is still enough potential for this occur onshore to maintain probabilities for strong gusts. Expectation is for this deeper convection to combine with the robust kinematic fields to provide a large reservoir of high-momentum air capable of mixing down to the surface. Given the strength of the forcing, this potential exists as far north across southern New England where buoyancy is expected to be very low. Additionally, some potential exists for surface-based storms within the warm sector ahead of the front, provided that antecedent precipitation does not entirely stabilize the low levels. Some guidance suggests a pre-frontal band of surface-based storms develops with low-level confluence within the warm sector over coastal NC and the Outer Banks. ..Mosier.. 12/10/2024 Read more

SPC 0700Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1256 AM CST Tue Dec 10 2024 Valid 111200Z - 121200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM EASTERN NC INTO SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND... ...SUMMARY... Strong to isolated severe thunderstorms are possible along and ahead of a cold front from eastern North Carolina into southern New England on Wednesday. ...Synopsis... A deep upper trough is expected to extend from central Canada southward along the length of the MS Valley into the western Gulf early Wednesday morning. A shortwave trough embedded within the base of this larger troughing is forecast to move quickly northeastward from the Lower MS Valley into the Mid-Atlantic. In response, the parent upper troughing will shift eastward while also deamplifying. Strong mid/upper flow is anticipated throughout the eastern periphery of this troughing, with a 100-110 kt 500 mb jet shifting northeastward from the Southeast into the Mid-Atlantic throughout the day. An associated surface low will deepen as it moves northeastward from northern VA through the Hudson Valley into NH/VT. An attendant cold front is forecast to sharpens as it moves quickly eastward, moving off the East Coast by Wednesday evening. ...Eastern North Carolina to southern New England... Low to mid 60s dewpoints are expected to advect northward into the Carolinas and northern Mid-Atlantic States ahead of the approaching cold front, with mid to upper 50s possible farther north into southern New England. These dewpoints will support modest buoyancy, with the overall buoyancy tempered by poor mid-level lapse rates and widespread precipitation. Even so, a strongly forced convective line is still expected to develop along the front as it moves quickly eastward across the region during the afternoon. Deeper convection is anticipated in this line when increasing large-scale ascent aligns with the low-level forcing along the front. Guidance differs on when and where this occurs, with some guidance suggesting it occurs primarily offshore. Even so, there is still enough potential for this occur onshore to maintain probabilities for strong gusts. Expectation is for this deeper convection to combine with the robust kinematic fields to provide a large reservoir of high-momentum air capable of mixing down to the surface. Given the strength of the forcing, this potential exists as far north across southern New England where buoyancy is expected to be very low. Additionally, some potential exists for surface-based storms within the warm sector ahead of the front, provided that antecedent precipitation does not entirely stabilize the low levels. Some guidance suggests a pre-frontal band of surface-based storms develops with low-level confluence within the warm sector over coastal NC and the Outer Banks. ..Mosier.. 12/10/2024 Read more

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1147 PM CST Mon Dec 09 2024 Valid 101200Z - 111200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE CENTRAL GULF COAST REGION AND INTO SOUTHWESTERN GEORGIA AND THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE... ...SUMMARY... A few strong to severe thunderstorms are possible across portions of the central Gulf Coast region into southwestern Georgia and the Florida Panhandle today. ...Synopsis... An amplifying upper trough will cross the central third of the U.S. today, taking on weak negative tilt by late in the period as it reaches the Mississippi Valley vicinity. Accompanying the upper system, a gradually sharpening cold front -- lying across the Tennessee and Lower Mississippi Valleys early -- will make steady eastward progress. By Wednesday morning, the front should extend from the Lower Great Lakes southward to the southern Appalachians, and then southwestward into the central and western Gulf of Mexico. ...Southeastern Louisiana to southwestern Georgia and the Florida Panhandle... Widespread showers and embedded thunderstorms are forecast across the central Gulf Coast region and Southeast, ahead of the advancing upper trough, and accompanying cold front. A broad/moist boundary layer will continue spreading across this region ahead of the front, but weak lapse rates aloft -- in part due to widespread clouds and precipitation anticipated across the warm sector -- should limit destabilization potential. This lack of CAPE is expected to substantially temper storm intensity/organization, despite a strong flow field favorably increasing and veering with height across the region. With that said, transient/occasionally more-organized convective structures seem likely -- through much of the period, but particularly from afternoon onward. Presuming that a few stronger bowing and/or weakly rotating segments will sporadically manifest, accompanying/local risk for gusty/damaging winds and/or a tornado or two would likely evolve as well -- primarily from the central Gulf Coast region into parts of western Georgia and the Florida Panhandle. ..Goss/Moore.. 12/10/2024 Read more

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1147 PM CST Mon Dec 09 2024 Valid 101200Z - 111200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE CENTRAL GULF COAST REGION AND INTO SOUTHWESTERN GEORGIA AND THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE... ...SUMMARY... A few strong to severe thunderstorms are possible across portions of the central Gulf Coast region into southwestern Georgia and the Florida Panhandle today. ...Synopsis... An amplifying upper trough will cross the central third of the U.S. today, taking on weak negative tilt by late in the period as it reaches the Mississippi Valley vicinity. Accompanying the upper system, a gradually sharpening cold front -- lying across the Tennessee and Lower Mississippi Valleys early -- will make steady eastward progress. By Wednesday morning, the front should extend from the Lower Great Lakes southward to the southern Appalachians, and then southwestward into the central and western Gulf of Mexico. ...Southeastern Louisiana to southwestern Georgia and the Florida Panhandle... Widespread showers and embedded thunderstorms are forecast across the central Gulf Coast region and Southeast, ahead of the advancing upper trough, and accompanying cold front. A broad/moist boundary layer will continue spreading across this region ahead of the front, but weak lapse rates aloft -- in part due to widespread clouds and precipitation anticipated across the warm sector -- should limit destabilization potential. This lack of CAPE is expected to substantially temper storm intensity/organization, despite a strong flow field favorably increasing and veering with height across the region. With that said, transient/occasionally more-organized convective structures seem likely -- through much of the period, but particularly from afternoon onward. Presuming that a few stronger bowing and/or weakly rotating segments will sporadically manifest, accompanying/local risk for gusty/damaging winds and/or a tornado or two would likely evolve as well -- primarily from the central Gulf Coast region into parts of western Georgia and the Florida Panhandle. ..Goss/Moore.. 12/10/2024 Read more

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1147 PM CST Mon Dec 09 2024 Valid 101200Z - 111200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE CENTRAL GULF COAST REGION AND INTO SOUTHWESTERN GEORGIA AND THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE... ...SUMMARY... A few strong to severe thunderstorms are possible across portions of the central Gulf Coast region into southwestern Georgia and the Florida Panhandle today. ...Synopsis... An amplifying upper trough will cross the central third of the U.S. today, taking on weak negative tilt by late in the period as it reaches the Mississippi Valley vicinity. Accompanying the upper system, a gradually sharpening cold front -- lying across the Tennessee and Lower Mississippi Valleys early -- will make steady eastward progress. By Wednesday morning, the front should extend from the Lower Great Lakes southward to the southern Appalachians, and then southwestward into the central and western Gulf of Mexico. ...Southeastern Louisiana to southwestern Georgia and the Florida Panhandle... Widespread showers and embedded thunderstorms are forecast across the central Gulf Coast region and Southeast, ahead of the advancing upper trough, and accompanying cold front. A broad/moist boundary layer will continue spreading across this region ahead of the front, but weak lapse rates aloft -- in part due to widespread clouds and precipitation anticipated across the warm sector -- should limit destabilization potential. This lack of CAPE is expected to substantially temper storm intensity/organization, despite a strong flow field favorably increasing and veering with height across the region. With that said, transient/occasionally more-organized convective structures seem likely -- through much of the period, but particularly from afternoon onward. Presuming that a few stronger bowing and/or weakly rotating segments will sporadically manifest, accompanying/local risk for gusty/damaging winds and/or a tornado or two would likely evolve as well -- primarily from the central Gulf Coast region into parts of western Georgia and the Florida Panhandle. ..Goss/Moore.. 12/10/2024 Read more

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1147 PM CST Mon Dec 09 2024 Valid 101200Z - 111200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE CENTRAL GULF COAST REGION AND INTO SOUTHWESTERN GEORGIA AND THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE... ...SUMMARY... A few strong to severe thunderstorms are possible across portions of the central Gulf Coast region into southwestern Georgia and the Florida Panhandle today. ...Synopsis... An amplifying upper trough will cross the central third of the U.S. today, taking on weak negative tilt by late in the period as it reaches the Mississippi Valley vicinity. Accompanying the upper system, a gradually sharpening cold front -- lying across the Tennessee and Lower Mississippi Valleys early -- will make steady eastward progress. By Wednesday morning, the front should extend from the Lower Great Lakes southward to the southern Appalachians, and then southwestward into the central and western Gulf of Mexico. ...Southeastern Louisiana to southwestern Georgia and the Florida Panhandle... Widespread showers and embedded thunderstorms are forecast across the central Gulf Coast region and Southeast, ahead of the advancing upper trough, and accompanying cold front. A broad/moist boundary layer will continue spreading across this region ahead of the front, but weak lapse rates aloft -- in part due to widespread clouds and precipitation anticipated across the warm sector -- should limit destabilization potential. This lack of CAPE is expected to substantially temper storm intensity/organization, despite a strong flow field favorably increasing and veering with height across the region. With that said, transient/occasionally more-organized convective structures seem likely -- through much of the period, but particularly from afternoon onward. Presuming that a few stronger bowing and/or weakly rotating segments will sporadically manifest, accompanying/local risk for gusty/damaging winds and/or a tornado or two would likely evolve as well -- primarily from the central Gulf Coast region into parts of western Georgia and the Florida Panhandle. ..Goss/Moore.. 12/10/2024 Read more

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1147 PM CST Mon Dec 09 2024 Valid 101200Z - 111200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE CENTRAL GULF COAST REGION AND INTO SOUTHWESTERN GEORGIA AND THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE... ...SUMMARY... A few strong to severe thunderstorms are possible across portions of the central Gulf Coast region into southwestern Georgia and the Florida Panhandle today. ...Synopsis... An amplifying upper trough will cross the central third of the U.S. today, taking on weak negative tilt by late in the period as it reaches the Mississippi Valley vicinity. Accompanying the upper system, a gradually sharpening cold front -- lying across the Tennessee and Lower Mississippi Valleys early -- will make steady eastward progress. By Wednesday morning, the front should extend from the Lower Great Lakes southward to the southern Appalachians, and then southwestward into the central and western Gulf of Mexico. ...Southeastern Louisiana to southwestern Georgia and the Florida Panhandle... Widespread showers and embedded thunderstorms are forecast across the central Gulf Coast region and Southeast, ahead of the advancing upper trough, and accompanying cold front. A broad/moist boundary layer will continue spreading across this region ahead of the front, but weak lapse rates aloft -- in part due to widespread clouds and precipitation anticipated across the warm sector -- should limit destabilization potential. This lack of CAPE is expected to substantially temper storm intensity/organization, despite a strong flow field favorably increasing and veering with height across the region. With that said, transient/occasionally more-organized convective structures seem likely -- through much of the period, but particularly from afternoon onward. Presuming that a few stronger bowing and/or weakly rotating segments will sporadically manifest, accompanying/local risk for gusty/damaging winds and/or a tornado or two would likely evolve as well -- primarily from the central Gulf Coast region into parts of western Georgia and the Florida Panhandle. ..Goss/Moore.. 12/10/2024 Read more

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1147 PM CST Mon Dec 09 2024 Valid 101200Z - 111200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE CENTRAL GULF COAST REGION AND INTO SOUTHWESTERN GEORGIA AND THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE... ...SUMMARY... A few strong to severe thunderstorms are possible across portions of the central Gulf Coast region into southwestern Georgia and the Florida Panhandle today. ...Synopsis... An amplifying upper trough will cross the central third of the U.S. today, taking on weak negative tilt by late in the period as it reaches the Mississippi Valley vicinity. Accompanying the upper system, a gradually sharpening cold front -- lying across the Tennessee and Lower Mississippi Valleys early -- will make steady eastward progress. By Wednesday morning, the front should extend from the Lower Great Lakes southward to the southern Appalachians, and then southwestward into the central and western Gulf of Mexico. ...Southeastern Louisiana to southwestern Georgia and the Florida Panhandle... Widespread showers and embedded thunderstorms are forecast across the central Gulf Coast region and Southeast, ahead of the advancing upper trough, and accompanying cold front. A broad/moist boundary layer will continue spreading across this region ahead of the front, but weak lapse rates aloft -- in part due to widespread clouds and precipitation anticipated across the warm sector -- should limit destabilization potential. This lack of CAPE is expected to substantially temper storm intensity/organization, despite a strong flow field favorably increasing and veering with height across the region. With that said, transient/occasionally more-organized convective structures seem likely -- through much of the period, but particularly from afternoon onward. Presuming that a few stronger bowing and/or weakly rotating segments will sporadically manifest, accompanying/local risk for gusty/damaging winds and/or a tornado or two would likely evolve as well -- primarily from the central Gulf Coast region into parts of western Georgia and the Florida Panhandle. ..Goss/Moore.. 12/10/2024 Read more

SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0654 PM CST Mon Dec 09 2024 Valid 100100Z - 101200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Showers and scattered thunderstorms are expected overnight across the lower Mississippi and Tennessee Valleys and central Gulf Coast states. ...Discussion... As an upper trough continues digging southeastward across the Plains and southern Rockies, a weak surface frontal wave, now over the Arklatex region, is forecast to shift into the Tennessee Valley. As this occurs, a trailing cold front will progress southeastward across the south-central states. Ahead of the front, a moist low-level airmass has advected northward into the central Gulf Coast states/Lower Mississippi Valley area. However, weak lapse rates aloft continue to hinder convective intensity, with lightning activity now having nearly ceased. Still, as the front advances, additional convective development is expected to occur, along with potential for additional/occasional thunderstorms. While deep-layer shear is sufficient for organized convection, it appears that weak CAPE should preclude appreciable risk for severe weather overnight. Therefore, will remove the MRGL risk that was in effect for a few diurnally enhanced storms over southern Louisiana. ..Goss.. 12/10/2024 Read more

SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0654 PM CST Mon Dec 09 2024 Valid 100100Z - 101200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Showers and scattered thunderstorms are expected overnight across the lower Mississippi and Tennessee Valleys and central Gulf Coast states. ...Discussion... As an upper trough continues digging southeastward across the Plains and southern Rockies, a weak surface frontal wave, now over the Arklatex region, is forecast to shift into the Tennessee Valley. As this occurs, a trailing cold front will progress southeastward across the south-central states. Ahead of the front, a moist low-level airmass has advected northward into the central Gulf Coast states/Lower Mississippi Valley area. However, weak lapse rates aloft continue to hinder convective intensity, with lightning activity now having nearly ceased. Still, as the front advances, additional convective development is expected to occur, along with potential for additional/occasional thunderstorms. While deep-layer shear is sufficient for organized convection, it appears that weak CAPE should preclude appreciable risk for severe weather overnight. Therefore, will remove the MRGL risk that was in effect for a few diurnally enhanced storms over southern Louisiana. ..Goss.. 12/10/2024 Read more

SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0654 PM CST Mon Dec 09 2024 Valid 100100Z - 101200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Showers and scattered thunderstorms are expected overnight across the lower Mississippi and Tennessee Valleys and central Gulf Coast states. ...Discussion... As an upper trough continues digging southeastward across the Plains and southern Rockies, a weak surface frontal wave, now over the Arklatex region, is forecast to shift into the Tennessee Valley. As this occurs, a trailing cold front will progress southeastward across the south-central states. Ahead of the front, a moist low-level airmass has advected northward into the central Gulf Coast states/Lower Mississippi Valley area. However, weak lapse rates aloft continue to hinder convective intensity, with lightning activity now having nearly ceased. Still, as the front advances, additional convective development is expected to occur, along with potential for additional/occasional thunderstorms. While deep-layer shear is sufficient for organized convection, it appears that weak CAPE should preclude appreciable risk for severe weather overnight. Therefore, will remove the MRGL risk that was in effect for a few diurnally enhanced storms over southern Louisiana. ..Goss.. 12/10/2024 Read more

SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0654 PM CST Mon Dec 09 2024 Valid 100100Z - 101200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Showers and scattered thunderstorms are expected overnight across the lower Mississippi and Tennessee Valleys and central Gulf Coast states. ...Discussion... As an upper trough continues digging southeastward across the Plains and southern Rockies, a weak surface frontal wave, now over the Arklatex region, is forecast to shift into the Tennessee Valley. As this occurs, a trailing cold front will progress southeastward across the south-central states. Ahead of the front, a moist low-level airmass has advected northward into the central Gulf Coast states/Lower Mississippi Valley area. However, weak lapse rates aloft continue to hinder convective intensity, with lightning activity now having nearly ceased. Still, as the front advances, additional convective development is expected to occur, along with potential for additional/occasional thunderstorms. While deep-layer shear is sufficient for organized convection, it appears that weak CAPE should preclude appreciable risk for severe weather overnight. Therefore, will remove the MRGL risk that was in effect for a few diurnally enhanced storms over southern Louisiana. ..Goss.. 12/10/2024 Read more

MD 2253 CONCERNING WINTER MIXED PRECIPITATION FOR PORTIONS OF EASTERN NEW YORK INTO VERMONT AND NEW HAMPSHIRE
Mesoscale Discussion 2253 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0207 PM CST Mon Dec 09 2024 Areas affected...Portions of eastern New York into Vermont and New Hampshire Concerning...Winter mixed precipitation Valid 092007Z - 100200Z SUMMARY...Wintry mixed precipitation is possible through the afternoon and evening hours across portions of eastern NY into portions of New England. Freezing rain and perhaps a bit of sleet appears likely over lower-terrain areas, with snow (perhaps up to 1 inch/hr rates) over the higher terrain. DISCUSSION...A broad precipitation shield is approaching portions of New England from the southwest, driven by appreciable low-level warm-air and moisture advection. The approach of a pronounced mid-level trough, in tandem with low-level lee troughing, will encourage continued strong deep-layer accent, which will in turn favor the maintenance of the ongoing precipitation band. Furthermore, this band is approaching a tropospheric airmass that is largely sub-freezing just above the surface (per 20Z mesoanalysis). Wintry precipitation is underway, evident via bright-banding in MRMS mosaic radar imagery, ZDR/correlation coefficient transitions with KENX regional radar data, and the KGFL ASOS reporting moderate snow. RAP forecast soundings show near-saturated vertical profiles, with 925-800 mb temperatures hovering around the freezing mark. However, current surface observations show wet bulb temperatures around or just below freezing. As such, evaporation with the onset of precipitation within the column should support enough cooling to potentially promote a rain/freezing rain/sleet mix over the lower elevations. In the higher elevations, wintry mix, dominated by snow, appears most likely. Given a saturated vertical profile, with strong 700 mb frontogenesis (driven by a well-defined 700 mb impulse overspreading the northeast) a few instances of heavier snowfall are possible. Up to 1 inch/hr snowfall rates cannot be ruled out. ..Squitieri.. 12/09/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...GYX...BTV...ALY... LAT...LON 43407141 43157180 42977267 43037318 43257385 43327397 43747404 44327396 44607323 44567192 44237131 43837113 43407141 Read more

MD 2253 CONCERNING WINTER MIXED PRECIPITATION FOR PORTIONS OF EASTERN NEW YORK INTO VERMONT AND NEW HAMPSHIRE
Mesoscale Discussion 2253 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0207 PM CST Mon Dec 09 2024 Areas affected...Portions of eastern New York into Vermont and New Hampshire Concerning...Winter mixed precipitation Valid 092007Z - 100200Z SUMMARY...Wintry mixed precipitation is possible through the afternoon and evening hours across portions of eastern NY into portions of New England. Freezing rain and perhaps a bit of sleet appears likely over lower-terrain areas, with snow (perhaps up to 1 inch/hr rates) over the higher terrain. DISCUSSION...A broad precipitation shield is approaching portions of New England from the southwest, driven by appreciable low-level warm-air and moisture advection. The approach of a pronounced mid-level trough, in tandem with low-level lee troughing, will encourage continued strong deep-layer accent, which will in turn favor the maintenance of the ongoing precipitation band. Furthermore, this band is approaching a tropospheric airmass that is largely sub-freezing just above the surface (per 20Z mesoanalysis). Wintry precipitation is underway, evident via bright-banding in MRMS mosaic radar imagery, ZDR/correlation coefficient transitions with KENX regional radar data, and the KGFL ASOS reporting moderate snow. RAP forecast soundings show near-saturated vertical profiles, with 925-800 mb temperatures hovering around the freezing mark. However, current surface observations show wet bulb temperatures around or just below freezing. As such, evaporation with the onset of precipitation within the column should support enough cooling to potentially promote a rain/freezing rain/sleet mix over the lower elevations. In the higher elevations, wintry mix, dominated by snow, appears most likely. Given a saturated vertical profile, with strong 700 mb frontogenesis (driven by a well-defined 700 mb impulse overspreading the northeast) a few instances of heavier snowfall are possible. Up to 1 inch/hr snowfall rates cannot be ruled out. ..Squitieri.. 12/09/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...GYX...BTV...ALY... LAT...LON 43407141 43157180 42977267 43037318 43257385 43327397 43747404 44327396 44607323 44567192 44237131 43837113 43407141 Read more

No watches are valid as of Mon Dec 9 23:01:01 UTC 2024.