Severe Storms

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0140 PM CST Mon Dec 09 2024 Valid 101200Z - 111200Z ...EXTREMELY CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA COAST... ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR THE SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA COAST... No changes are needed to the current D2 Fire Weather Outlook. Some consideration was given to adding an Extremely Critical area to the mountains and foothills in San Diego County. In coordination with local partners, it appears the threat here may remain too isolated to warrant inclusion of areas at this time. Extremely Critical conditions will likely be ongoing at the start of the D2 period across the mountains and foothills in Ventura and Los Angeles counties. Overnight recovery is expected to be extremely poor, with long duration Critical to Extremely Critical conditions Monday into Tuesday. ..Thornton.. 12/09/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0146 AM CST Mon Dec 09 2024/ ...Synopsis... Critical to extremely critical fire weather conditions are expected Tuesday morning along the southern California coast. An unseasonably strong surface high across the northern Great Basin will maintain a robust offshore pressure gradient along the southern CA coast for much of Tuesday and into early Wednesday (see the current D1 Fire Outlook for additional details regarding the synoptic regime). Recent guidance continues to suggest that the LAX-DAG gradient should peak sometime during the 12-17 UTC period Tuesday morning at around -9 to -10 mb. A gradient of this magnitude typically supports wind gusts within the coastal terrain between 50-70 mph, though localized stronger gusts appear possible based on some high-res solutions. By early Tuesday morning the offshore flow regime will be well established with 12 hours of preceding downslope warming/drying. Not only will this support more widespread areas of single-digit RH values (and extremely critical fire weather conditions), but should also promote rapid curing/drying of 1 and 10-hour fuels. Consequently, the greatest fire weather threat will likely emerge Tuesday morning. Recent ensemble guidance and high-res deterministic solutions suggests extremely critical conditions will be most widespread across western Los Angeles and eastern Ventura counties within the San Gabriel and Sierra Madre mountains, though localized extremely critical conditions will be possible further south along the southern CA coast. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0140 PM CST Mon Dec 09 2024 Valid 101200Z - 111200Z ...EXTREMELY CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA COAST... ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR THE SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA COAST... No changes are needed to the current D2 Fire Weather Outlook. Some consideration was given to adding an Extremely Critical area to the mountains and foothills in San Diego County. In coordination with local partners, it appears the threat here may remain too isolated to warrant inclusion of areas at this time. Extremely Critical conditions will likely be ongoing at the start of the D2 period across the mountains and foothills in Ventura and Los Angeles counties. Overnight recovery is expected to be extremely poor, with long duration Critical to Extremely Critical conditions Monday into Tuesday. ..Thornton.. 12/09/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0146 AM CST Mon Dec 09 2024/ ...Synopsis... Critical to extremely critical fire weather conditions are expected Tuesday morning along the southern California coast. An unseasonably strong surface high across the northern Great Basin will maintain a robust offshore pressure gradient along the southern CA coast for much of Tuesday and into early Wednesday (see the current D1 Fire Outlook for additional details regarding the synoptic regime). Recent guidance continues to suggest that the LAX-DAG gradient should peak sometime during the 12-17 UTC period Tuesday morning at around -9 to -10 mb. A gradient of this magnitude typically supports wind gusts within the coastal terrain between 50-70 mph, though localized stronger gusts appear possible based on some high-res solutions. By early Tuesday morning the offshore flow regime will be well established with 12 hours of preceding downslope warming/drying. Not only will this support more widespread areas of single-digit RH values (and extremely critical fire weather conditions), but should also promote rapid curing/drying of 1 and 10-hour fuels. Consequently, the greatest fire weather threat will likely emerge Tuesday morning. Recent ensemble guidance and high-res deterministic solutions suggests extremely critical conditions will be most widespread across western Los Angeles and eastern Ventura counties within the San Gabriel and Sierra Madre mountains, though localized extremely critical conditions will be possible further south along the southern CA coast. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0140 PM CST Mon Dec 09 2024 Valid 101200Z - 111200Z ...EXTREMELY CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA COAST... ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR THE SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA COAST... No changes are needed to the current D2 Fire Weather Outlook. Some consideration was given to adding an Extremely Critical area to the mountains and foothills in San Diego County. In coordination with local partners, it appears the threat here may remain too isolated to warrant inclusion of areas at this time. Extremely Critical conditions will likely be ongoing at the start of the D2 period across the mountains and foothills in Ventura and Los Angeles counties. Overnight recovery is expected to be extremely poor, with long duration Critical to Extremely Critical conditions Monday into Tuesday. ..Thornton.. 12/09/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0146 AM CST Mon Dec 09 2024/ ...Synopsis... Critical to extremely critical fire weather conditions are expected Tuesday morning along the southern California coast. An unseasonably strong surface high across the northern Great Basin will maintain a robust offshore pressure gradient along the southern CA coast for much of Tuesday and into early Wednesday (see the current D1 Fire Outlook for additional details regarding the synoptic regime). Recent guidance continues to suggest that the LAX-DAG gradient should peak sometime during the 12-17 UTC period Tuesday morning at around -9 to -10 mb. A gradient of this magnitude typically supports wind gusts within the coastal terrain between 50-70 mph, though localized stronger gusts appear possible based on some high-res solutions. By early Tuesday morning the offshore flow regime will be well established with 12 hours of preceding downslope warming/drying. Not only will this support more widespread areas of single-digit RH values (and extremely critical fire weather conditions), but should also promote rapid curing/drying of 1 and 10-hour fuels. Consequently, the greatest fire weather threat will likely emerge Tuesday morning. Recent ensemble guidance and high-res deterministic solutions suggests extremely critical conditions will be most widespread across western Los Angeles and eastern Ventura counties within the San Gabriel and Sierra Madre mountains, though localized extremely critical conditions will be possible further south along the southern CA coast. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0140 PM CST Mon Dec 09 2024 Valid 101200Z - 111200Z ...EXTREMELY CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA COAST... ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR THE SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA COAST... No changes are needed to the current D2 Fire Weather Outlook. Some consideration was given to adding an Extremely Critical area to the mountains and foothills in San Diego County. In coordination with local partners, it appears the threat here may remain too isolated to warrant inclusion of areas at this time. Extremely Critical conditions will likely be ongoing at the start of the D2 period across the mountains and foothills in Ventura and Los Angeles counties. Overnight recovery is expected to be extremely poor, with long duration Critical to Extremely Critical conditions Monday into Tuesday. ..Thornton.. 12/09/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0146 AM CST Mon Dec 09 2024/ ...Synopsis... Critical to extremely critical fire weather conditions are expected Tuesday morning along the southern California coast. An unseasonably strong surface high across the northern Great Basin will maintain a robust offshore pressure gradient along the southern CA coast for much of Tuesday and into early Wednesday (see the current D1 Fire Outlook for additional details regarding the synoptic regime). Recent guidance continues to suggest that the LAX-DAG gradient should peak sometime during the 12-17 UTC period Tuesday morning at around -9 to -10 mb. A gradient of this magnitude typically supports wind gusts within the coastal terrain between 50-70 mph, though localized stronger gusts appear possible based on some high-res solutions. By early Tuesday morning the offshore flow regime will be well established with 12 hours of preceding downslope warming/drying. Not only will this support more widespread areas of single-digit RH values (and extremely critical fire weather conditions), but should also promote rapid curing/drying of 1 and 10-hour fuels. Consequently, the greatest fire weather threat will likely emerge Tuesday morning. Recent ensemble guidance and high-res deterministic solutions suggests extremely critical conditions will be most widespread across western Los Angeles and eastern Ventura counties within the San Gabriel and Sierra Madre mountains, though localized extremely critical conditions will be possible further south along the southern CA coast. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0140 PM CST Mon Dec 09 2024 Valid 101200Z - 111200Z ...EXTREMELY CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA COAST... ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR THE SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA COAST... No changes are needed to the current D2 Fire Weather Outlook. Some consideration was given to adding an Extremely Critical area to the mountains and foothills in San Diego County. In coordination with local partners, it appears the threat here may remain too isolated to warrant inclusion of areas at this time. Extremely Critical conditions will likely be ongoing at the start of the D2 period across the mountains and foothills in Ventura and Los Angeles counties. Overnight recovery is expected to be extremely poor, with long duration Critical to Extremely Critical conditions Monday into Tuesday. ..Thornton.. 12/09/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0146 AM CST Mon Dec 09 2024/ ...Synopsis... Critical to extremely critical fire weather conditions are expected Tuesday morning along the southern California coast. An unseasonably strong surface high across the northern Great Basin will maintain a robust offshore pressure gradient along the southern CA coast for much of Tuesday and into early Wednesday (see the current D1 Fire Outlook for additional details regarding the synoptic regime). Recent guidance continues to suggest that the LAX-DAG gradient should peak sometime during the 12-17 UTC period Tuesday morning at around -9 to -10 mb. A gradient of this magnitude typically supports wind gusts within the coastal terrain between 50-70 mph, though localized stronger gusts appear possible based on some high-res solutions. By early Tuesday morning the offshore flow regime will be well established with 12 hours of preceding downslope warming/drying. Not only will this support more widespread areas of single-digit RH values (and extremely critical fire weather conditions), but should also promote rapid curing/drying of 1 and 10-hour fuels. Consequently, the greatest fire weather threat will likely emerge Tuesday morning. Recent ensemble guidance and high-res deterministic solutions suggests extremely critical conditions will be most widespread across western Los Angeles and eastern Ventura counties within the San Gabriel and Sierra Madre mountains, though localized extremely critical conditions will be possible further south along the southern CA coast. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC 1930Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0111 PM CST Mon Dec 09 2024 Valid 111200Z - 121200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM EASTERN NORTH CAROLINA TO SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND... ...SUMMARY... Strong to isolated severe thunderstorms are possible along and ahead of a cold front from the Mid-Atlantic into the Florida Peninsula on Wednesday. ...Synopsis... As a strong mid-level trough becomes negatively tilted across the eastern CONUS, a surface low will deepen as it moves north along the spine of the Appalachians and tropospheric flow will strengthen across much of the East Coast. As the surface low deepens, a cold front will sharpen and move quickly east through the period and move into the Atlantic by late Wednesday afternoon/early evening. ...Eastern North Carolina to southern New England... As the surface low deepens and the cold front sharpens, expect a strongly forced convective line to develop during the morning near the Appalachian Mountains and strengthen as it moves east by late morning to early afternoon. Low 60s dewpoints ahead of this front will lead to marginal instability 100-300 J/kg MLCAPE ahead of the line. However, despite the weak instability, this line may have some threat for damaging wind gusts given the strength of the kinematic field. A 130 knot mid-level jet streak and a 75 knot low-level jet will overspread the warm sector during the late morning to early afternoon which will provide a large reservoir of high momentum air which may mix to the surface within the strongly forced line. A marginal risk has been added to address this threat. Some low-level stability is possible along the immediate coast due to the cold shelfwaters. However, given the strength of the flow and how strongly forced the line will likely be, some damaging wind threat could still exist into areas with this marine influence. ..Bentley.. 12/09/2024 Read more

SPC 1930Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0111 PM CST Mon Dec 09 2024 Valid 111200Z - 121200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM EASTERN NORTH CAROLINA TO SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND... ...SUMMARY... Strong to isolated severe thunderstorms are possible along and ahead of a cold front from the Mid-Atlantic into the Florida Peninsula on Wednesday. ...Synopsis... As a strong mid-level trough becomes negatively tilted across the eastern CONUS, a surface low will deepen as it moves north along the spine of the Appalachians and tropospheric flow will strengthen across much of the East Coast. As the surface low deepens, a cold front will sharpen and move quickly east through the period and move into the Atlantic by late Wednesday afternoon/early evening. ...Eastern North Carolina to southern New England... As the surface low deepens and the cold front sharpens, expect a strongly forced convective line to develop during the morning near the Appalachian Mountains and strengthen as it moves east by late morning to early afternoon. Low 60s dewpoints ahead of this front will lead to marginal instability 100-300 J/kg MLCAPE ahead of the line. However, despite the weak instability, this line may have some threat for damaging wind gusts given the strength of the kinematic field. A 130 knot mid-level jet streak and a 75 knot low-level jet will overspread the warm sector during the late morning to early afternoon which will provide a large reservoir of high momentum air which may mix to the surface within the strongly forced line. A marginal risk has been added to address this threat. Some low-level stability is possible along the immediate coast due to the cold shelfwaters. However, given the strength of the flow and how strongly forced the line will likely be, some damaging wind threat could still exist into areas with this marine influence. ..Bentley.. 12/09/2024 Read more

SPC 1930Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0111 PM CST Mon Dec 09 2024 Valid 111200Z - 121200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM EASTERN NORTH CAROLINA TO SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND... ...SUMMARY... Strong to isolated severe thunderstorms are possible along and ahead of a cold front from the Mid-Atlantic into the Florida Peninsula on Wednesday. ...Synopsis... As a strong mid-level trough becomes negatively tilted across the eastern CONUS, a surface low will deepen as it moves north along the spine of the Appalachians and tropospheric flow will strengthen across much of the East Coast. As the surface low deepens, a cold front will sharpen and move quickly east through the period and move into the Atlantic by late Wednesday afternoon/early evening. ...Eastern North Carolina to southern New England... As the surface low deepens and the cold front sharpens, expect a strongly forced convective line to develop during the morning near the Appalachian Mountains and strengthen as it moves east by late morning to early afternoon. Low 60s dewpoints ahead of this front will lead to marginal instability 100-300 J/kg MLCAPE ahead of the line. However, despite the weak instability, this line may have some threat for damaging wind gusts given the strength of the kinematic field. A 130 knot mid-level jet streak and a 75 knot low-level jet will overspread the warm sector during the late morning to early afternoon which will provide a large reservoir of high momentum air which may mix to the surface within the strongly forced line. A marginal risk has been added to address this threat. Some low-level stability is possible along the immediate coast due to the cold shelfwaters. However, given the strength of the flow and how strongly forced the line will likely be, some damaging wind threat could still exist into areas with this marine influence. ..Bentley.. 12/09/2024 Read more

SPC 1930Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0111 PM CST Mon Dec 09 2024 Valid 111200Z - 121200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM EASTERN NORTH CAROLINA TO SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND... ...SUMMARY... Strong to isolated severe thunderstorms are possible along and ahead of a cold front from the Mid-Atlantic into the Florida Peninsula on Wednesday. ...Synopsis... As a strong mid-level trough becomes negatively tilted across the eastern CONUS, a surface low will deepen as it moves north along the spine of the Appalachians and tropospheric flow will strengthen across much of the East Coast. As the surface low deepens, a cold front will sharpen and move quickly east through the period and move into the Atlantic by late Wednesday afternoon/early evening. ...Eastern North Carolina to southern New England... As the surface low deepens and the cold front sharpens, expect a strongly forced convective line to develop during the morning near the Appalachian Mountains and strengthen as it moves east by late morning to early afternoon. Low 60s dewpoints ahead of this front will lead to marginal instability 100-300 J/kg MLCAPE ahead of the line. However, despite the weak instability, this line may have some threat for damaging wind gusts given the strength of the kinematic field. A 130 knot mid-level jet streak and a 75 knot low-level jet will overspread the warm sector during the late morning to early afternoon which will provide a large reservoir of high momentum air which may mix to the surface within the strongly forced line. A marginal risk has been added to address this threat. Some low-level stability is possible along the immediate coast due to the cold shelfwaters. However, given the strength of the flow and how strongly forced the line will likely be, some damaging wind threat could still exist into areas with this marine influence. ..Bentley.. 12/09/2024 Read more

SPC 1930Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0111 PM CST Mon Dec 09 2024 Valid 111200Z - 121200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM EASTERN NORTH CAROLINA TO SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND... ...SUMMARY... Strong to isolated severe thunderstorms are possible along and ahead of a cold front from the Mid-Atlantic into the Florida Peninsula on Wednesday. ...Synopsis... As a strong mid-level trough becomes negatively tilted across the eastern CONUS, a surface low will deepen as it moves north along the spine of the Appalachians and tropospheric flow will strengthen across much of the East Coast. As the surface low deepens, a cold front will sharpen and move quickly east through the period and move into the Atlantic by late Wednesday afternoon/early evening. ...Eastern North Carolina to southern New England... As the surface low deepens and the cold front sharpens, expect a strongly forced convective line to develop during the morning near the Appalachian Mountains and strengthen as it moves east by late morning to early afternoon. Low 60s dewpoints ahead of this front will lead to marginal instability 100-300 J/kg MLCAPE ahead of the line. However, despite the weak instability, this line may have some threat for damaging wind gusts given the strength of the kinematic field. A 130 knot mid-level jet streak and a 75 knot low-level jet will overspread the warm sector during the late morning to early afternoon which will provide a large reservoir of high momentum air which may mix to the surface within the strongly forced line. A marginal risk has been added to address this threat. Some low-level stability is possible along the immediate coast due to the cold shelfwaters. However, given the strength of the flow and how strongly forced the line will likely be, some damaging wind threat could still exist into areas with this marine influence. ..Bentley.. 12/09/2024 Read more

SPC 1930Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0111 PM CST Mon Dec 09 2024 Valid 111200Z - 121200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM EASTERN NORTH CAROLINA TO SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND... ...SUMMARY... Strong to isolated severe thunderstorms are possible along and ahead of a cold front from the Mid-Atlantic into the Florida Peninsula on Wednesday. ...Synopsis... As a strong mid-level trough becomes negatively tilted across the eastern CONUS, a surface low will deepen as it moves north along the spine of the Appalachians and tropospheric flow will strengthen across much of the East Coast. As the surface low deepens, a cold front will sharpen and move quickly east through the period and move into the Atlantic by late Wednesday afternoon/early evening. ...Eastern North Carolina to southern New England... As the surface low deepens and the cold front sharpens, expect a strongly forced convective line to develop during the morning near the Appalachian Mountains and strengthen as it moves east by late morning to early afternoon. Low 60s dewpoints ahead of this front will lead to marginal instability 100-300 J/kg MLCAPE ahead of the line. However, despite the weak instability, this line may have some threat for damaging wind gusts given the strength of the kinematic field. A 130 knot mid-level jet streak and a 75 knot low-level jet will overspread the warm sector during the late morning to early afternoon which will provide a large reservoir of high momentum air which may mix to the surface within the strongly forced line. A marginal risk has been added to address this threat. Some low-level stability is possible along the immediate coast due to the cold shelfwaters. However, given the strength of the flow and how strongly forced the line will likely be, some damaging wind threat could still exist into areas with this marine influence. ..Bentley.. 12/09/2024 Read more

SPC 1930Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0111 PM CST Mon Dec 09 2024 Valid 111200Z - 121200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM EASTERN NORTH CAROLINA TO SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND... ...SUMMARY... Strong to isolated severe thunderstorms are possible along and ahead of a cold front from the Mid-Atlantic into the Florida Peninsula on Wednesday. ...Synopsis... As a strong mid-level trough becomes negatively tilted across the eastern CONUS, a surface low will deepen as it moves north along the spine of the Appalachians and tropospheric flow will strengthen across much of the East Coast. As the surface low deepens, a cold front will sharpen and move quickly east through the period and move into the Atlantic by late Wednesday afternoon/early evening. ...Eastern North Carolina to southern New England... As the surface low deepens and the cold front sharpens, expect a strongly forced convective line to develop during the morning near the Appalachian Mountains and strengthen as it moves east by late morning to early afternoon. Low 60s dewpoints ahead of this front will lead to marginal instability 100-300 J/kg MLCAPE ahead of the line. However, despite the weak instability, this line may have some threat for damaging wind gusts given the strength of the kinematic field. A 130 knot mid-level jet streak and a 75 knot low-level jet will overspread the warm sector during the late morning to early afternoon which will provide a large reservoir of high momentum air which may mix to the surface within the strongly forced line. A marginal risk has been added to address this threat. Some low-level stability is possible along the immediate coast due to the cold shelfwaters. However, given the strength of the flow and how strongly forced the line will likely be, some damaging wind threat could still exist into areas with this marine influence. ..Bentley.. 12/09/2024 Read more

SPC 1930Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0111 PM CST Mon Dec 09 2024 Valid 111200Z - 121200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM EASTERN NORTH CAROLINA TO SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND... ...SUMMARY... Strong to isolated severe thunderstorms are possible along and ahead of a cold front from the Mid-Atlantic into the Florida Peninsula on Wednesday. ...Synopsis... As a strong mid-level trough becomes negatively tilted across the eastern CONUS, a surface low will deepen as it moves north along the spine of the Appalachians and tropospheric flow will strengthen across much of the East Coast. As the surface low deepens, a cold front will sharpen and move quickly east through the period and move into the Atlantic by late Wednesday afternoon/early evening. ...Eastern North Carolina to southern New England... As the surface low deepens and the cold front sharpens, expect a strongly forced convective line to develop during the morning near the Appalachian Mountains and strengthen as it moves east by late morning to early afternoon. Low 60s dewpoints ahead of this front will lead to marginal instability 100-300 J/kg MLCAPE ahead of the line. However, despite the weak instability, this line may have some threat for damaging wind gusts given the strength of the kinematic field. A 130 knot mid-level jet streak and a 75 knot low-level jet will overspread the warm sector during the late morning to early afternoon which will provide a large reservoir of high momentum air which may mix to the surface within the strongly forced line. A marginal risk has been added to address this threat. Some low-level stability is possible along the immediate coast due to the cold shelfwaters. However, given the strength of the flow and how strongly forced the line will likely be, some damaging wind threat could still exist into areas with this marine influence. ..Bentley.. 12/09/2024 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1048 AM CST Mon Dec 09 2024 Valid 101200Z - 111200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF CENTRAL AND SOUTH AL...SOUTHWEST GA...AND THE ADJACENT FL PANHANDLE... ...SUMMARY... Isolated severe thunderstorms are possible across portions of central and south Alabama, southwest Georgia, and the adjacent Florida Panhandle on Tuesday. ...Southeast... An upper-level trough will amplify and transition from positively tilted across the Southwest Tuesday morning to negatively tilted by early Wednesday morning across the Mississippi Valley. Persistent weak southerly flow will maintain mid 60s dewpoints across the Southeast within a broad warm-air advection regime. Extensive cloudcover and ongoing convection will likely limit destabilization, but sufficient moisture and the cooling temperatures aloft may allow for some weak instability to develop. Some CAM guidance such as the HRRR suggests greater heating is possible with temperatures in the mid 70s and over 1000 J/kg MLCAPE in some pockets. If this greater instability solution were to verify, a slightly greater severe weather threat may materialize given the favorable shear with lengthening hodographs through the day. However, at this time, expect minimal instability inland due to the widespread convection and cloudcover. A few rotating storms/bowing segments with the threat for a few damaging wind gusts and perhaps a tornado will be the primary threat. ...Outerbanks... As the primary trough starts to become negatively tilted around 12Z Wednesday, a surface low is expected to become better pronounced and start to deepen across the Appalachians. As this occurs, low-level flow will strengthen and back which will allow better moisture to advect inland across the eastern Carolinas. Sufficient instability is possible across the eastern Carolinas for some supercell potential. However, at this time CAMS are not clear whether a confluence band will form in this region and if it will be inland if it does develop. If a confluence band does develop and can move inland, supercells will be possible with a threat for damaging wind gusts and a tornado or two, given the wind profile and moderate instability forecast. ..Bentley.. 12/09/2024 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1048 AM CST Mon Dec 09 2024 Valid 101200Z - 111200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF CENTRAL AND SOUTH AL...SOUTHWEST GA...AND THE ADJACENT FL PANHANDLE... ...SUMMARY... Isolated severe thunderstorms are possible across portions of central and south Alabama, southwest Georgia, and the adjacent Florida Panhandle on Tuesday. ...Southeast... An upper-level trough will amplify and transition from positively tilted across the Southwest Tuesday morning to negatively tilted by early Wednesday morning across the Mississippi Valley. Persistent weak southerly flow will maintain mid 60s dewpoints across the Southeast within a broad warm-air advection regime. Extensive cloudcover and ongoing convection will likely limit destabilization, but sufficient moisture and the cooling temperatures aloft may allow for some weak instability to develop. Some CAM guidance such as the HRRR suggests greater heating is possible with temperatures in the mid 70s and over 1000 J/kg MLCAPE in some pockets. If this greater instability solution were to verify, a slightly greater severe weather threat may materialize given the favorable shear with lengthening hodographs through the day. However, at this time, expect minimal instability inland due to the widespread convection and cloudcover. A few rotating storms/bowing segments with the threat for a few damaging wind gusts and perhaps a tornado will be the primary threat. ...Outerbanks... As the primary trough starts to become negatively tilted around 12Z Wednesday, a surface low is expected to become better pronounced and start to deepen across the Appalachians. As this occurs, low-level flow will strengthen and back which will allow better moisture to advect inland across the eastern Carolinas. Sufficient instability is possible across the eastern Carolinas for some supercell potential. However, at this time CAMS are not clear whether a confluence band will form in this region and if it will be inland if it does develop. If a confluence band does develop and can move inland, supercells will be possible with a threat for damaging wind gusts and a tornado or two, given the wind profile and moderate instability forecast. ..Bentley.. 12/09/2024 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1048 AM CST Mon Dec 09 2024 Valid 101200Z - 111200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF CENTRAL AND SOUTH AL...SOUTHWEST GA...AND THE ADJACENT FL PANHANDLE... ...SUMMARY... Isolated severe thunderstorms are possible across portions of central and south Alabama, southwest Georgia, and the adjacent Florida Panhandle on Tuesday. ...Southeast... An upper-level trough will amplify and transition from positively tilted across the Southwest Tuesday morning to negatively tilted by early Wednesday morning across the Mississippi Valley. Persistent weak southerly flow will maintain mid 60s dewpoints across the Southeast within a broad warm-air advection regime. Extensive cloudcover and ongoing convection will likely limit destabilization, but sufficient moisture and the cooling temperatures aloft may allow for some weak instability to develop. Some CAM guidance such as the HRRR suggests greater heating is possible with temperatures in the mid 70s and over 1000 J/kg MLCAPE in some pockets. If this greater instability solution were to verify, a slightly greater severe weather threat may materialize given the favorable shear with lengthening hodographs through the day. However, at this time, expect minimal instability inland due to the widespread convection and cloudcover. A few rotating storms/bowing segments with the threat for a few damaging wind gusts and perhaps a tornado will be the primary threat. ...Outerbanks... As the primary trough starts to become negatively tilted around 12Z Wednesday, a surface low is expected to become better pronounced and start to deepen across the Appalachians. As this occurs, low-level flow will strengthen and back which will allow better moisture to advect inland across the eastern Carolinas. Sufficient instability is possible across the eastern Carolinas for some supercell potential. However, at this time CAMS are not clear whether a confluence band will form in this region and if it will be inland if it does develop. If a confluence band does develop and can move inland, supercells will be possible with a threat for damaging wind gusts and a tornado or two, given the wind profile and moderate instability forecast. ..Bentley.. 12/09/2024 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1048 AM CST Mon Dec 09 2024 Valid 101200Z - 111200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF CENTRAL AND SOUTH AL...SOUTHWEST GA...AND THE ADJACENT FL PANHANDLE... ...SUMMARY... Isolated severe thunderstorms are possible across portions of central and south Alabama, southwest Georgia, and the adjacent Florida Panhandle on Tuesday. ...Southeast... An upper-level trough will amplify and transition from positively tilted across the Southwest Tuesday morning to negatively tilted by early Wednesday morning across the Mississippi Valley. Persistent weak southerly flow will maintain mid 60s dewpoints across the Southeast within a broad warm-air advection regime. Extensive cloudcover and ongoing convection will likely limit destabilization, but sufficient moisture and the cooling temperatures aloft may allow for some weak instability to develop. Some CAM guidance such as the HRRR suggests greater heating is possible with temperatures in the mid 70s and over 1000 J/kg MLCAPE in some pockets. If this greater instability solution were to verify, a slightly greater severe weather threat may materialize given the favorable shear with lengthening hodographs through the day. However, at this time, expect minimal instability inland due to the widespread convection and cloudcover. A few rotating storms/bowing segments with the threat for a few damaging wind gusts and perhaps a tornado will be the primary threat. ...Outerbanks... As the primary trough starts to become negatively tilted around 12Z Wednesday, a surface low is expected to become better pronounced and start to deepen across the Appalachians. As this occurs, low-level flow will strengthen and back which will allow better moisture to advect inland across the eastern Carolinas. Sufficient instability is possible across the eastern Carolinas for some supercell potential. However, at this time CAMS are not clear whether a confluence band will form in this region and if it will be inland if it does develop. If a confluence band does develop and can move inland, supercells will be possible with a threat for damaging wind gusts and a tornado or two, given the wind profile and moderate instability forecast. ..Bentley.. 12/09/2024 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1048 AM CST Mon Dec 09 2024 Valid 101200Z - 111200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF CENTRAL AND SOUTH AL...SOUTHWEST GA...AND THE ADJACENT FL PANHANDLE... ...SUMMARY... Isolated severe thunderstorms are possible across portions of central and south Alabama, southwest Georgia, and the adjacent Florida Panhandle on Tuesday. ...Southeast... An upper-level trough will amplify and transition from positively tilted across the Southwest Tuesday morning to negatively tilted by early Wednesday morning across the Mississippi Valley. Persistent weak southerly flow will maintain mid 60s dewpoints across the Southeast within a broad warm-air advection regime. Extensive cloudcover and ongoing convection will likely limit destabilization, but sufficient moisture and the cooling temperatures aloft may allow for some weak instability to develop. Some CAM guidance such as the HRRR suggests greater heating is possible with temperatures in the mid 70s and over 1000 J/kg MLCAPE in some pockets. If this greater instability solution were to verify, a slightly greater severe weather threat may materialize given the favorable shear with lengthening hodographs through the day. However, at this time, expect minimal instability inland due to the widespread convection and cloudcover. A few rotating storms/bowing segments with the threat for a few damaging wind gusts and perhaps a tornado will be the primary threat. ...Outerbanks... As the primary trough starts to become negatively tilted around 12Z Wednesday, a surface low is expected to become better pronounced and start to deepen across the Appalachians. As this occurs, low-level flow will strengthen and back which will allow better moisture to advect inland across the eastern Carolinas. Sufficient instability is possible across the eastern Carolinas for some supercell potential. However, at this time CAMS are not clear whether a confluence band will form in this region and if it will be inland if it does develop. If a confluence band does develop and can move inland, supercells will be possible with a threat for damaging wind gusts and a tornado or two, given the wind profile and moderate instability forecast. ..Bentley.. 12/09/2024 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1048 AM CST Mon Dec 09 2024 Valid 101200Z - 111200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF CENTRAL AND SOUTH AL...SOUTHWEST GA...AND THE ADJACENT FL PANHANDLE... ...SUMMARY... Isolated severe thunderstorms are possible across portions of central and south Alabama, southwest Georgia, and the adjacent Florida Panhandle on Tuesday. ...Southeast... An upper-level trough will amplify and transition from positively tilted across the Southwest Tuesday morning to negatively tilted by early Wednesday morning across the Mississippi Valley. Persistent weak southerly flow will maintain mid 60s dewpoints across the Southeast within a broad warm-air advection regime. Extensive cloudcover and ongoing convection will likely limit destabilization, but sufficient moisture and the cooling temperatures aloft may allow for some weak instability to develop. Some CAM guidance such as the HRRR suggests greater heating is possible with temperatures in the mid 70s and over 1000 J/kg MLCAPE in some pockets. If this greater instability solution were to verify, a slightly greater severe weather threat may materialize given the favorable shear with lengthening hodographs through the day. However, at this time, expect minimal instability inland due to the widespread convection and cloudcover. A few rotating storms/bowing segments with the threat for a few damaging wind gusts and perhaps a tornado will be the primary threat. ...Outerbanks... As the primary trough starts to become negatively tilted around 12Z Wednesday, a surface low is expected to become better pronounced and start to deepen across the Appalachians. As this occurs, low-level flow will strengthen and back which will allow better moisture to advect inland across the eastern Carolinas. Sufficient instability is possible across the eastern Carolinas for some supercell potential. However, at this time CAMS are not clear whether a confluence band will form in this region and if it will be inland if it does develop. If a confluence band does develop and can move inland, supercells will be possible with a threat for damaging wind gusts and a tornado or two, given the wind profile and moderate instability forecast. ..Bentley.. 12/09/2024 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1048 AM CST Mon Dec 09 2024 Valid 101200Z - 111200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF CENTRAL AND SOUTH AL...SOUTHWEST GA...AND THE ADJACENT FL PANHANDLE... ...SUMMARY... Isolated severe thunderstorms are possible across portions of central and south Alabama, southwest Georgia, and the adjacent Florida Panhandle on Tuesday. ...Southeast... An upper-level trough will amplify and transition from positively tilted across the Southwest Tuesday morning to negatively tilted by early Wednesday morning across the Mississippi Valley. Persistent weak southerly flow will maintain mid 60s dewpoints across the Southeast within a broad warm-air advection regime. Extensive cloudcover and ongoing convection will likely limit destabilization, but sufficient moisture and the cooling temperatures aloft may allow for some weak instability to develop. Some CAM guidance such as the HRRR suggests greater heating is possible with temperatures in the mid 70s and over 1000 J/kg MLCAPE in some pockets. If this greater instability solution were to verify, a slightly greater severe weather threat may materialize given the favorable shear with lengthening hodographs through the day. However, at this time, expect minimal instability inland due to the widespread convection and cloudcover. A few rotating storms/bowing segments with the threat for a few damaging wind gusts and perhaps a tornado will be the primary threat. ...Outerbanks... As the primary trough starts to become negatively tilted around 12Z Wednesday, a surface low is expected to become better pronounced and start to deepen across the Appalachians. As this occurs, low-level flow will strengthen and back which will allow better moisture to advect inland across the eastern Carolinas. Sufficient instability is possible across the eastern Carolinas for some supercell potential. However, at this time CAMS are not clear whether a confluence band will form in this region and if it will be inland if it does develop. If a confluence band does develop and can move inland, supercells will be possible with a threat for damaging wind gusts and a tornado or two, given the wind profile and moderate instability forecast. ..Bentley.. 12/09/2024 Read more