Severe Storms

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0332 PM CST Sun Dec 08 2024 Valid 101200Z - 161200Z ...Days 3-4/Tuesday-Wednesday - Southern California... Large-scale trough amplification is forecast over the western CONUS on Monday. This in combination with an anonymously strong surface high pressure over the Intermountain West will tighten offshore pressure gradients across southern CA (LAX-DAG gradient peaking around -8 to -9 mb). This pattern will favor critical fire-weather conditions across portions of Ventura and Los Angeles Counties in southern CA, given increasingly dry/receptive fuels. Critical conditions are expected to increase in coverage late D2 - Monday and continue into late D3 Tuesday - D4 Wednesday. Pressure gradients are forecast to peak on D3 - Tuesday, and 70-percent Critical probabilities have been maintained with this outlook. The 40 percent region was expanded to include mountain zones in San Luis Obispo County. Areas of Extremely Critical conditions are likely Tuesday morning and afternoon where single digit humidity overlaps stronger winds (gusting 40 - 50 mph up to 60-70+ mph in the mountains) in favored downslope regions of the mountains and foothills in Ventura and Los Angeles Counties. Fire weather concerns will linger into D4 - Wednesday morning before gradients begin to gradually weaken through the day. Given the potential for a long period of Critical conditions prior and forecast for continued single digit humidity, a 40 percent delineation was maintained for continuance of this threat overnight Tuesday into the late morning Wednesday. As the western trough ejects across the Plains D3/Tuesday into D4 - Wednesday, periods of dry/windy conditions are expected across the High/Southern Plains, however, fuels do not appear supportive of large-fire potential at this time. ERC forecasts do indicate fuels will dry, particularly across western Texas into eastern New Mexico, but largely remain below Critical thresholds. ..Thornton.. 12/08/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0332 PM CST Sun Dec 08 2024 Valid 101200Z - 161200Z ...Days 3-4/Tuesday-Wednesday - Southern California... Large-scale trough amplification is forecast over the western CONUS on Monday. This in combination with an anonymously strong surface high pressure over the Intermountain West will tighten offshore pressure gradients across southern CA (LAX-DAG gradient peaking around -8 to -9 mb). This pattern will favor critical fire-weather conditions across portions of Ventura and Los Angeles Counties in southern CA, given increasingly dry/receptive fuels. Critical conditions are expected to increase in coverage late D2 - Monday and continue into late D3 Tuesday - D4 Wednesday. Pressure gradients are forecast to peak on D3 - Tuesday, and 70-percent Critical probabilities have been maintained with this outlook. The 40 percent region was expanded to include mountain zones in San Luis Obispo County. Areas of Extremely Critical conditions are likely Tuesday morning and afternoon where single digit humidity overlaps stronger winds (gusting 40 - 50 mph up to 60-70+ mph in the mountains) in favored downslope regions of the mountains and foothills in Ventura and Los Angeles Counties. Fire weather concerns will linger into D4 - Wednesday morning before gradients begin to gradually weaken through the day. Given the potential for a long period of Critical conditions prior and forecast for continued single digit humidity, a 40 percent delineation was maintained for continuance of this threat overnight Tuesday into the late morning Wednesday. As the western trough ejects across the Plains D3/Tuesday into D4 - Wednesday, periods of dry/windy conditions are expected across the High/Southern Plains, however, fuels do not appear supportive of large-fire potential at this time. ERC forecasts do indicate fuels will dry, particularly across western Texas into eastern New Mexico, but largely remain below Critical thresholds. ..Thornton.. 12/08/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0332 PM CST Sun Dec 08 2024 Valid 101200Z - 161200Z ...Days 3-4/Tuesday-Wednesday - Southern California... Large-scale trough amplification is forecast over the western CONUS on Monday. This in combination with an anonymously strong surface high pressure over the Intermountain West will tighten offshore pressure gradients across southern CA (LAX-DAG gradient peaking around -8 to -9 mb). This pattern will favor critical fire-weather conditions across portions of Ventura and Los Angeles Counties in southern CA, given increasingly dry/receptive fuels. Critical conditions are expected to increase in coverage late D2 - Monday and continue into late D3 Tuesday - D4 Wednesday. Pressure gradients are forecast to peak on D3 - Tuesday, and 70-percent Critical probabilities have been maintained with this outlook. The 40 percent region was expanded to include mountain zones in San Luis Obispo County. Areas of Extremely Critical conditions are likely Tuesday morning and afternoon where single digit humidity overlaps stronger winds (gusting 40 - 50 mph up to 60-70+ mph in the mountains) in favored downslope regions of the mountains and foothills in Ventura and Los Angeles Counties. Fire weather concerns will linger into D4 - Wednesday morning before gradients begin to gradually weaken through the day. Given the potential for a long period of Critical conditions prior and forecast for continued single digit humidity, a 40 percent delineation was maintained for continuance of this threat overnight Tuesday into the late morning Wednesday. As the western trough ejects across the Plains D3/Tuesday into D4 - Wednesday, periods of dry/windy conditions are expected across the High/Southern Plains, however, fuels do not appear supportive of large-fire potential at this time. ERC forecasts do indicate fuels will dry, particularly across western Texas into eastern New Mexico, but largely remain below Critical thresholds. ..Thornton.. 12/08/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0158 PM CST Sun Dec 08 2024 Valid 091200Z - 101200Z ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA COAST... No changes are needed to the current D2 Fire Weather Outlook. Fire weather concerns are expected to increase towards the end of the D2 period and into D3 for a long duration and widespread critical fire weather event. See previous text for more information. ..Thornton.. 12/08/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0144 AM CST Sun Dec 08 2024/ ...Synopsis... ...Southern California Coast... Fire weather concerns will likely emerge along the southern CA coast by late Monday amid strengthening offshore pressure gradient winds. A gradual amplification of the upper trough currently over the Pacific Northwest is anticipated over the next 48 hours as it shifts east/southeast. In its wake, an unseasonably strong 1035-1040 mb surface high (around the 90th percentile for early December) is expected to settle into the northern Great Basin through late Monday into early Tuesday. This will promote a strengthening offshore pressure gradient along the southern CA coast with the DAG-LAX gradient approaching elevated thresholds by Monday afternoon and critical thresholds (-9 to -11 mb) by 12 UTC Tuesday. As such, northeasterly winds are expected to increase through the afternoon and into the overnight hours with gusts upwards of 40-60 mph possible within the terrain. 07 UTC surface observations show dry conditions (10-20% RH) already in place within the coastal mountains, which should see limited RH recovery prior to the onset of stronger winds. As such, elevated fire weather conditions are expected by Monday afternoon with critical conditions becoming increasingly likely/widespread during the 06-12 UTC period Monday night/Tuesday morning. ...Southeast New Mexico into southwestern Texas... West/northwesterly gradient winds are forecast to increase through the day across southeast NM into southwestern TX ahead of a southward-pushing cold front. Latest ensemble guidance suggests sustained winds between 15-20 mph are likely with RH reductions into the teens and low 20s probable. While elevated fire weather conditions will likely emerge, latest ERC analyses continue to suggest that fuels are not supportive of a robust fire threat at this time. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0158 PM CST Sun Dec 08 2024 Valid 091200Z - 101200Z ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA COAST... No changes are needed to the current D2 Fire Weather Outlook. Fire weather concerns are expected to increase towards the end of the D2 period and into D3 for a long duration and widespread critical fire weather event. See previous text for more information. ..Thornton.. 12/08/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0144 AM CST Sun Dec 08 2024/ ...Synopsis... ...Southern California Coast... Fire weather concerns will likely emerge along the southern CA coast by late Monday amid strengthening offshore pressure gradient winds. A gradual amplification of the upper trough currently over the Pacific Northwest is anticipated over the next 48 hours as it shifts east/southeast. In its wake, an unseasonably strong 1035-1040 mb surface high (around the 90th percentile for early December) is expected to settle into the northern Great Basin through late Monday into early Tuesday. This will promote a strengthening offshore pressure gradient along the southern CA coast with the DAG-LAX gradient approaching elevated thresholds by Monday afternoon and critical thresholds (-9 to -11 mb) by 12 UTC Tuesday. As such, northeasterly winds are expected to increase through the afternoon and into the overnight hours with gusts upwards of 40-60 mph possible within the terrain. 07 UTC surface observations show dry conditions (10-20% RH) already in place within the coastal mountains, which should see limited RH recovery prior to the onset of stronger winds. As such, elevated fire weather conditions are expected by Monday afternoon with critical conditions becoming increasingly likely/widespread during the 06-12 UTC period Monday night/Tuesday morning. ...Southeast New Mexico into southwestern Texas... West/northwesterly gradient winds are forecast to increase through the day across southeast NM into southwestern TX ahead of a southward-pushing cold front. Latest ensemble guidance suggests sustained winds between 15-20 mph are likely with RH reductions into the teens and low 20s probable. While elevated fire weather conditions will likely emerge, latest ERC analyses continue to suggest that fuels are not supportive of a robust fire threat at this time. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0158 PM CST Sun Dec 08 2024 Valid 091200Z - 101200Z ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA COAST... No changes are needed to the current D2 Fire Weather Outlook. Fire weather concerns are expected to increase towards the end of the D2 period and into D3 for a long duration and widespread critical fire weather event. See previous text for more information. ..Thornton.. 12/08/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0144 AM CST Sun Dec 08 2024/ ...Synopsis... ...Southern California Coast... Fire weather concerns will likely emerge along the southern CA coast by late Monday amid strengthening offshore pressure gradient winds. A gradual amplification of the upper trough currently over the Pacific Northwest is anticipated over the next 48 hours as it shifts east/southeast. In its wake, an unseasonably strong 1035-1040 mb surface high (around the 90th percentile for early December) is expected to settle into the northern Great Basin through late Monday into early Tuesday. This will promote a strengthening offshore pressure gradient along the southern CA coast with the DAG-LAX gradient approaching elevated thresholds by Monday afternoon and critical thresholds (-9 to -11 mb) by 12 UTC Tuesday. As such, northeasterly winds are expected to increase through the afternoon and into the overnight hours with gusts upwards of 40-60 mph possible within the terrain. 07 UTC surface observations show dry conditions (10-20% RH) already in place within the coastal mountains, which should see limited RH recovery prior to the onset of stronger winds. As such, elevated fire weather conditions are expected by Monday afternoon with critical conditions becoming increasingly likely/widespread during the 06-12 UTC period Monday night/Tuesday morning. ...Southeast New Mexico into southwestern Texas... West/northwesterly gradient winds are forecast to increase through the day across southeast NM into southwestern TX ahead of a southward-pushing cold front. Latest ensemble guidance suggests sustained winds between 15-20 mph are likely with RH reductions into the teens and low 20s probable. While elevated fire weather conditions will likely emerge, latest ERC analyses continue to suggest that fuels are not supportive of a robust fire threat at this time. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0158 PM CST Sun Dec 08 2024 Valid 091200Z - 101200Z ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA COAST... No changes are needed to the current D2 Fire Weather Outlook. Fire weather concerns are expected to increase towards the end of the D2 period and into D3 for a long duration and widespread critical fire weather event. See previous text for more information. ..Thornton.. 12/08/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0144 AM CST Sun Dec 08 2024/ ...Synopsis... ...Southern California Coast... Fire weather concerns will likely emerge along the southern CA coast by late Monday amid strengthening offshore pressure gradient winds. A gradual amplification of the upper trough currently over the Pacific Northwest is anticipated over the next 48 hours as it shifts east/southeast. In its wake, an unseasonably strong 1035-1040 mb surface high (around the 90th percentile for early December) is expected to settle into the northern Great Basin through late Monday into early Tuesday. This will promote a strengthening offshore pressure gradient along the southern CA coast with the DAG-LAX gradient approaching elevated thresholds by Monday afternoon and critical thresholds (-9 to -11 mb) by 12 UTC Tuesday. As such, northeasterly winds are expected to increase through the afternoon and into the overnight hours with gusts upwards of 40-60 mph possible within the terrain. 07 UTC surface observations show dry conditions (10-20% RH) already in place within the coastal mountains, which should see limited RH recovery prior to the onset of stronger winds. As such, elevated fire weather conditions are expected by Monday afternoon with critical conditions becoming increasingly likely/widespread during the 06-12 UTC period Monday night/Tuesday morning. ...Southeast New Mexico into southwestern Texas... West/northwesterly gradient winds are forecast to increase through the day across southeast NM into southwestern TX ahead of a southward-pushing cold front. Latest ensemble guidance suggests sustained winds between 15-20 mph are likely with RH reductions into the teens and low 20s probable. While elevated fire weather conditions will likely emerge, latest ERC analyses continue to suggest that fuels are not supportive of a robust fire threat at this time. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0158 PM CST Sun Dec 08 2024 Valid 091200Z - 101200Z ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA COAST... No changes are needed to the current D2 Fire Weather Outlook. Fire weather concerns are expected to increase towards the end of the D2 period and into D3 for a long duration and widespread critical fire weather event. See previous text for more information. ..Thornton.. 12/08/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0144 AM CST Sun Dec 08 2024/ ...Synopsis... ...Southern California Coast... Fire weather concerns will likely emerge along the southern CA coast by late Monday amid strengthening offshore pressure gradient winds. A gradual amplification of the upper trough currently over the Pacific Northwest is anticipated over the next 48 hours as it shifts east/southeast. In its wake, an unseasonably strong 1035-1040 mb surface high (around the 90th percentile for early December) is expected to settle into the northern Great Basin through late Monday into early Tuesday. This will promote a strengthening offshore pressure gradient along the southern CA coast with the DAG-LAX gradient approaching elevated thresholds by Monday afternoon and critical thresholds (-9 to -11 mb) by 12 UTC Tuesday. As such, northeasterly winds are expected to increase through the afternoon and into the overnight hours with gusts upwards of 40-60 mph possible within the terrain. 07 UTC surface observations show dry conditions (10-20% RH) already in place within the coastal mountains, which should see limited RH recovery prior to the onset of stronger winds. As such, elevated fire weather conditions are expected by Monday afternoon with critical conditions becoming increasingly likely/widespread during the 06-12 UTC period Monday night/Tuesday morning. ...Southeast New Mexico into southwestern Texas... West/northwesterly gradient winds are forecast to increase through the day across southeast NM into southwestern TX ahead of a southward-pushing cold front. Latest ensemble guidance suggests sustained winds between 15-20 mph are likely with RH reductions into the teens and low 20s probable. While elevated fire weather conditions will likely emerge, latest ERC analyses continue to suggest that fuels are not supportive of a robust fire threat at this time. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0158 PM CST Sun Dec 08 2024 Valid 091200Z - 101200Z ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA COAST... No changes are needed to the current D2 Fire Weather Outlook. Fire weather concerns are expected to increase towards the end of the D2 period and into D3 for a long duration and widespread critical fire weather event. See previous text for more information. ..Thornton.. 12/08/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0144 AM CST Sun Dec 08 2024/ ...Synopsis... ...Southern California Coast... Fire weather concerns will likely emerge along the southern CA coast by late Monday amid strengthening offshore pressure gradient winds. A gradual amplification of the upper trough currently over the Pacific Northwest is anticipated over the next 48 hours as it shifts east/southeast. In its wake, an unseasonably strong 1035-1040 mb surface high (around the 90th percentile for early December) is expected to settle into the northern Great Basin through late Monday into early Tuesday. This will promote a strengthening offshore pressure gradient along the southern CA coast with the DAG-LAX gradient approaching elevated thresholds by Monday afternoon and critical thresholds (-9 to -11 mb) by 12 UTC Tuesday. As such, northeasterly winds are expected to increase through the afternoon and into the overnight hours with gusts upwards of 40-60 mph possible within the terrain. 07 UTC surface observations show dry conditions (10-20% RH) already in place within the coastal mountains, which should see limited RH recovery prior to the onset of stronger winds. As such, elevated fire weather conditions are expected by Monday afternoon with critical conditions becoming increasingly likely/widespread during the 06-12 UTC period Monday night/Tuesday morning. ...Southeast New Mexico into southwestern Texas... West/northwesterly gradient winds are forecast to increase through the day across southeast NM into southwestern TX ahead of a southward-pushing cold front. Latest ensemble guidance suggests sustained winds between 15-20 mph are likely with RH reductions into the teens and low 20s probable. While elevated fire weather conditions will likely emerge, latest ERC analyses continue to suggest that fuels are not supportive of a robust fire threat at this time. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0140 PM CST Sun Dec 08 2024 Valid 082000Z - 091200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are not expected through tonight. ...20z... No changes, overall severe potential remains very low. Extensive cloud cover and stratiform precipitation have stunted the inland advection/development of a higher theta-E air mass onshore. Short-term model guidance does suggest this may change over the next several hours as forcing for ascent and weak surface pressure falls intensify this evening and overnight. Steepening mid-level lapse rates and increasing surface moisture could support marginal buoyancy overlapping with the strong vertical shear as far inland as central MS. An isolated stronger storm capable of damaging gusts is possible this evening and into the first part of the overnight hours. However, the narrow warm sector and poor diurnal timing suggest the risk for severe storms is very low. Isolated lightning flashes will remain possible beneath the cold core low over parts of the Pacific Northwest this afternoon/evening, see the prior discussion. ..Lyons.. 12/08/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1013 AM CST Sun Dec 08 2024/ ...Lower MS Valley... A weak upper low is tracking northeastward across the TX Panhandle today, with the subtropical mid-level jet extending from northern Mexico into the lower MS Valley. Broad large-scale ascent has resulted in periodic episodes of thunderstorms across TX overnight and this morning. This regime is expected to shift eastward today into more of AR/LA and eventually the TN Valley overnight. Low-level and deep-layer vertical shear is very strong, and there is a low probability of a strong storm or two across northeast LA into western/central MS late this afternoon capable of gusty winds. However, thermodynamics are quite weak and the overall severe threat appears too low to introduce probabilities. Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0140 PM CST Sun Dec 08 2024 Valid 082000Z - 091200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are not expected through tonight. ...20z... No changes, overall severe potential remains very low. Extensive cloud cover and stratiform precipitation have stunted the inland advection/development of a higher theta-E air mass onshore. Short-term model guidance does suggest this may change over the next several hours as forcing for ascent and weak surface pressure falls intensify this evening and overnight. Steepening mid-level lapse rates and increasing surface moisture could support marginal buoyancy overlapping with the strong vertical shear as far inland as central MS. An isolated stronger storm capable of damaging gusts is possible this evening and into the first part of the overnight hours. However, the narrow warm sector and poor diurnal timing suggest the risk for severe storms is very low. Isolated lightning flashes will remain possible beneath the cold core low over parts of the Pacific Northwest this afternoon/evening, see the prior discussion. ..Lyons.. 12/08/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1013 AM CST Sun Dec 08 2024/ ...Lower MS Valley... A weak upper low is tracking northeastward across the TX Panhandle today, with the subtropical mid-level jet extending from northern Mexico into the lower MS Valley. Broad large-scale ascent has resulted in periodic episodes of thunderstorms across TX overnight and this morning. This regime is expected to shift eastward today into more of AR/LA and eventually the TN Valley overnight. Low-level and deep-layer vertical shear is very strong, and there is a low probability of a strong storm or two across northeast LA into western/central MS late this afternoon capable of gusty winds. However, thermodynamics are quite weak and the overall severe threat appears too low to introduce probabilities. Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0140 PM CST Sun Dec 08 2024 Valid 082000Z - 091200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are not expected through tonight. ...20z... No changes, overall severe potential remains very low. Extensive cloud cover and stratiform precipitation have stunted the inland advection/development of a higher theta-E air mass onshore. Short-term model guidance does suggest this may change over the next several hours as forcing for ascent and weak surface pressure falls intensify this evening and overnight. Steepening mid-level lapse rates and increasing surface moisture could support marginal buoyancy overlapping with the strong vertical shear as far inland as central MS. An isolated stronger storm capable of damaging gusts is possible this evening and into the first part of the overnight hours. However, the narrow warm sector and poor diurnal timing suggest the risk for severe storms is very low. Isolated lightning flashes will remain possible beneath the cold core low over parts of the Pacific Northwest this afternoon/evening, see the prior discussion. ..Lyons.. 12/08/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1013 AM CST Sun Dec 08 2024/ ...Lower MS Valley... A weak upper low is tracking northeastward across the TX Panhandle today, with the subtropical mid-level jet extending from northern Mexico into the lower MS Valley. Broad large-scale ascent has resulted in periodic episodes of thunderstorms across TX overnight and this morning. This regime is expected to shift eastward today into more of AR/LA and eventually the TN Valley overnight. Low-level and deep-layer vertical shear is very strong, and there is a low probability of a strong storm or two across northeast LA into western/central MS late this afternoon capable of gusty winds. However, thermodynamics are quite weak and the overall severe threat appears too low to introduce probabilities. Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0140 PM CST Sun Dec 08 2024 Valid 082000Z - 091200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are not expected through tonight. ...20z... No changes, overall severe potential remains very low. Extensive cloud cover and stratiform precipitation have stunted the inland advection/development of a higher theta-E air mass onshore. Short-term model guidance does suggest this may change over the next several hours as forcing for ascent and weak surface pressure falls intensify this evening and overnight. Steepening mid-level lapse rates and increasing surface moisture could support marginal buoyancy overlapping with the strong vertical shear as far inland as central MS. An isolated stronger storm capable of damaging gusts is possible this evening and into the first part of the overnight hours. However, the narrow warm sector and poor diurnal timing suggest the risk for severe storms is very low. Isolated lightning flashes will remain possible beneath the cold core low over parts of the Pacific Northwest this afternoon/evening, see the prior discussion. ..Lyons.. 12/08/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1013 AM CST Sun Dec 08 2024/ ...Lower MS Valley... A weak upper low is tracking northeastward across the TX Panhandle today, with the subtropical mid-level jet extending from northern Mexico into the lower MS Valley. Broad large-scale ascent has resulted in periodic episodes of thunderstorms across TX overnight and this morning. This regime is expected to shift eastward today into more of AR/LA and eventually the TN Valley overnight. Low-level and deep-layer vertical shear is very strong, and there is a low probability of a strong storm or two across northeast LA into western/central MS late this afternoon capable of gusty winds. However, thermodynamics are quite weak and the overall severe threat appears too low to introduce probabilities. Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0140 PM CST Sun Dec 08 2024 Valid 082000Z - 091200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are not expected through tonight. ...20z... No changes, overall severe potential remains very low. Extensive cloud cover and stratiform precipitation have stunted the inland advection/development of a higher theta-E air mass onshore. Short-term model guidance does suggest this may change over the next several hours as forcing for ascent and weak surface pressure falls intensify this evening and overnight. Steepening mid-level lapse rates and increasing surface moisture could support marginal buoyancy overlapping with the strong vertical shear as far inland as central MS. An isolated stronger storm capable of damaging gusts is possible this evening and into the first part of the overnight hours. However, the narrow warm sector and poor diurnal timing suggest the risk for severe storms is very low. Isolated lightning flashes will remain possible beneath the cold core low over parts of the Pacific Northwest this afternoon/evening, see the prior discussion. ..Lyons.. 12/08/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1013 AM CST Sun Dec 08 2024/ ...Lower MS Valley... A weak upper low is tracking northeastward across the TX Panhandle today, with the subtropical mid-level jet extending from northern Mexico into the lower MS Valley. Broad large-scale ascent has resulted in periodic episodes of thunderstorms across TX overnight and this morning. This regime is expected to shift eastward today into more of AR/LA and eventually the TN Valley overnight. Low-level and deep-layer vertical shear is very strong, and there is a low probability of a strong storm or two across northeast LA into western/central MS late this afternoon capable of gusty winds. However, thermodynamics are quite weak and the overall severe threat appears too low to introduce probabilities. Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0140 PM CST Sun Dec 08 2024 Valid 082000Z - 091200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are not expected through tonight. ...20z... No changes, overall severe potential remains very low. Extensive cloud cover and stratiform precipitation have stunted the inland advection/development of a higher theta-E air mass onshore. Short-term model guidance does suggest this may change over the next several hours as forcing for ascent and weak surface pressure falls intensify this evening and overnight. Steepening mid-level lapse rates and increasing surface moisture could support marginal buoyancy overlapping with the strong vertical shear as far inland as central MS. An isolated stronger storm capable of damaging gusts is possible this evening and into the first part of the overnight hours. However, the narrow warm sector and poor diurnal timing suggest the risk for severe storms is very low. Isolated lightning flashes will remain possible beneath the cold core low over parts of the Pacific Northwest this afternoon/evening, see the prior discussion. ..Lyons.. 12/08/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1013 AM CST Sun Dec 08 2024/ ...Lower MS Valley... A weak upper low is tracking northeastward across the TX Panhandle today, with the subtropical mid-level jet extending from northern Mexico into the lower MS Valley. Broad large-scale ascent has resulted in periodic episodes of thunderstorms across TX overnight and this morning. This regime is expected to shift eastward today into more of AR/LA and eventually the TN Valley overnight. Low-level and deep-layer vertical shear is very strong, and there is a low probability of a strong storm or two across northeast LA into western/central MS late this afternoon capable of gusty winds. However, thermodynamics are quite weak and the overall severe threat appears too low to introduce probabilities. Read more

SPC 1930Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0119 PM CST Sun Dec 08 2024 Valid 101200Z - 111200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR PARTS OF CENTRAL AND SOUTH AL...SOUTHWEST GA...AND THE ADJACENT FL PANHANDLE... ...SUMMARY... Isolated severe thunderstorms are possible across portions of central and south Alabama, southwest Georgia, and the adjacent Florida Panhandle on Tuesday. ...Synopsis... A deep mid/upper-level trough across much of the central/eastern CONUS will begin to shift eastward on Tuesday. This trough will take on a neutral tilt as a significant shortwave moves through the base of the trough from the southern Great Plains into the lower MS Valley. A surface low initially near the ArkLaMiss region is expected to move quickly northeast toward the upper Ohio Valley, with some guidance showing secondary cyclogenesis later in the period along the trailing cold front that will move across the Southeast. ...Parts of MS/AL/GA and the FL Panhandle... The Marginal Risk has been expanded slightly to the south and west, but the previous forecast reasoning remains valid. While generally weak midlevel lapse rates will continue to limit instability across the warm sector Tuesday, modest diurnal heating and mid 60s F dewpoints could support MLCAPE of greater than 500 J/kg into the afternoon, if early-day convection is not too disruptive. Low/midlevel flow will generally strengthen through the day in response to the approaching shortwave trough, resulting in favorably long hodographs and the potential for organized storms. Any sustained cells/clusters within this environment could pose a threat of isolated damaging gusts and possibly a tornado. The northern and eastern extent of the diurnal organized-severe threat will be limited by a spatially constrained warm sector, though a strong storm or two cannot be ruled out from north AL/GA into middle/eastern TN. ...Late Tuesday night from the Carolinas into GA/north FL... A strong south-southwesterly low-level jet is expected to develop across the eastern Carolinas/Georgia late Tuesday night into Wednesday morning, in response to the intensifying mid/upper-level shortwave trough approaching the Southeast. Weak lapse rates and increasingly widespread precipitation will continue to limit instability, but there may be some potential for low-topped convection with gusty winds to spread across parts of GA/north FL into the Carolinas. Some low-level moistening will also be possible in the NC Outer Banks vicinity late in the period, as low-level and deep-layer shear continue to increase, but potential for any robust convection in this area prior to 12Z Wednesday remains very uncertain. ..Dean.. 12/08/2024 Read more

SPC 1930Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0119 PM CST Sun Dec 08 2024 Valid 101200Z - 111200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR PARTS OF CENTRAL AND SOUTH AL...SOUTHWEST GA...AND THE ADJACENT FL PANHANDLE... ...SUMMARY... Isolated severe thunderstorms are possible across portions of central and south Alabama, southwest Georgia, and the adjacent Florida Panhandle on Tuesday. ...Synopsis... A deep mid/upper-level trough across much of the central/eastern CONUS will begin to shift eastward on Tuesday. This trough will take on a neutral tilt as a significant shortwave moves through the base of the trough from the southern Great Plains into the lower MS Valley. A surface low initially near the ArkLaMiss region is expected to move quickly northeast toward the upper Ohio Valley, with some guidance showing secondary cyclogenesis later in the period along the trailing cold front that will move across the Southeast. ...Parts of MS/AL/GA and the FL Panhandle... The Marginal Risk has been expanded slightly to the south and west, but the previous forecast reasoning remains valid. While generally weak midlevel lapse rates will continue to limit instability across the warm sector Tuesday, modest diurnal heating and mid 60s F dewpoints could support MLCAPE of greater than 500 J/kg into the afternoon, if early-day convection is not too disruptive. Low/midlevel flow will generally strengthen through the day in response to the approaching shortwave trough, resulting in favorably long hodographs and the potential for organized storms. Any sustained cells/clusters within this environment could pose a threat of isolated damaging gusts and possibly a tornado. The northern and eastern extent of the diurnal organized-severe threat will be limited by a spatially constrained warm sector, though a strong storm or two cannot be ruled out from north AL/GA into middle/eastern TN. ...Late Tuesday night from the Carolinas into GA/north FL... A strong south-southwesterly low-level jet is expected to develop across the eastern Carolinas/Georgia late Tuesday night into Wednesday morning, in response to the intensifying mid/upper-level shortwave trough approaching the Southeast. Weak lapse rates and increasingly widespread precipitation will continue to limit instability, but there may be some potential for low-topped convection with gusty winds to spread across parts of GA/north FL into the Carolinas. Some low-level moistening will also be possible in the NC Outer Banks vicinity late in the period, as low-level and deep-layer shear continue to increase, but potential for any robust convection in this area prior to 12Z Wednesday remains very uncertain. ..Dean.. 12/08/2024 Read more

SPC 1930Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0119 PM CST Sun Dec 08 2024 Valid 101200Z - 111200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR PARTS OF CENTRAL AND SOUTH AL...SOUTHWEST GA...AND THE ADJACENT FL PANHANDLE... ...SUMMARY... Isolated severe thunderstorms are possible across portions of central and south Alabama, southwest Georgia, and the adjacent Florida Panhandle on Tuesday. ...Synopsis... A deep mid/upper-level trough across much of the central/eastern CONUS will begin to shift eastward on Tuesday. This trough will take on a neutral tilt as a significant shortwave moves through the base of the trough from the southern Great Plains into the lower MS Valley. A surface low initially near the ArkLaMiss region is expected to move quickly northeast toward the upper Ohio Valley, with some guidance showing secondary cyclogenesis later in the period along the trailing cold front that will move across the Southeast. ...Parts of MS/AL/GA and the FL Panhandle... The Marginal Risk has been expanded slightly to the south and west, but the previous forecast reasoning remains valid. While generally weak midlevel lapse rates will continue to limit instability across the warm sector Tuesday, modest diurnal heating and mid 60s F dewpoints could support MLCAPE of greater than 500 J/kg into the afternoon, if early-day convection is not too disruptive. Low/midlevel flow will generally strengthen through the day in response to the approaching shortwave trough, resulting in favorably long hodographs and the potential for organized storms. Any sustained cells/clusters within this environment could pose a threat of isolated damaging gusts and possibly a tornado. The northern and eastern extent of the diurnal organized-severe threat will be limited by a spatially constrained warm sector, though a strong storm or two cannot be ruled out from north AL/GA into middle/eastern TN. ...Late Tuesday night from the Carolinas into GA/north FL... A strong south-southwesterly low-level jet is expected to develop across the eastern Carolinas/Georgia late Tuesday night into Wednesday morning, in response to the intensifying mid/upper-level shortwave trough approaching the Southeast. Weak lapse rates and increasingly widespread precipitation will continue to limit instability, but there may be some potential for low-topped convection with gusty winds to spread across parts of GA/north FL into the Carolinas. Some low-level moistening will also be possible in the NC Outer Banks vicinity late in the period, as low-level and deep-layer shear continue to increase, but potential for any robust convection in this area prior to 12Z Wednesday remains very uncertain. ..Dean.. 12/08/2024 Read more

SPC 1930Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0119 PM CST Sun Dec 08 2024 Valid 101200Z - 111200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR PARTS OF CENTRAL AND SOUTH AL...SOUTHWEST GA...AND THE ADJACENT FL PANHANDLE... ...SUMMARY... Isolated severe thunderstorms are possible across portions of central and south Alabama, southwest Georgia, and the adjacent Florida Panhandle on Tuesday. ...Synopsis... A deep mid/upper-level trough across much of the central/eastern CONUS will begin to shift eastward on Tuesday. This trough will take on a neutral tilt as a significant shortwave moves through the base of the trough from the southern Great Plains into the lower MS Valley. A surface low initially near the ArkLaMiss region is expected to move quickly northeast toward the upper Ohio Valley, with some guidance showing secondary cyclogenesis later in the period along the trailing cold front that will move across the Southeast. ...Parts of MS/AL/GA and the FL Panhandle... The Marginal Risk has been expanded slightly to the south and west, but the previous forecast reasoning remains valid. While generally weak midlevel lapse rates will continue to limit instability across the warm sector Tuesday, modest diurnal heating and mid 60s F dewpoints could support MLCAPE of greater than 500 J/kg into the afternoon, if early-day convection is not too disruptive. Low/midlevel flow will generally strengthen through the day in response to the approaching shortwave trough, resulting in favorably long hodographs and the potential for organized storms. Any sustained cells/clusters within this environment could pose a threat of isolated damaging gusts and possibly a tornado. The northern and eastern extent of the diurnal organized-severe threat will be limited by a spatially constrained warm sector, though a strong storm or two cannot be ruled out from north AL/GA into middle/eastern TN. ...Late Tuesday night from the Carolinas into GA/north FL... A strong south-southwesterly low-level jet is expected to develop across the eastern Carolinas/Georgia late Tuesday night into Wednesday morning, in response to the intensifying mid/upper-level shortwave trough approaching the Southeast. Weak lapse rates and increasingly widespread precipitation will continue to limit instability, but there may be some potential for low-topped convection with gusty winds to spread across parts of GA/north FL into the Carolinas. Some low-level moistening will also be possible in the NC Outer Banks vicinity late in the period, as low-level and deep-layer shear continue to increase, but potential for any robust convection in this area prior to 12Z Wednesday remains very uncertain. ..Dean.. 12/08/2024 Read more

SPC 1930Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0119 PM CST Sun Dec 08 2024 Valid 101200Z - 111200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR PARTS OF CENTRAL AND SOUTH AL...SOUTHWEST GA...AND THE ADJACENT FL PANHANDLE... ...SUMMARY... Isolated severe thunderstorms are possible across portions of central and south Alabama, southwest Georgia, and the adjacent Florida Panhandle on Tuesday. ...Synopsis... A deep mid/upper-level trough across much of the central/eastern CONUS will begin to shift eastward on Tuesday. This trough will take on a neutral tilt as a significant shortwave moves through the base of the trough from the southern Great Plains into the lower MS Valley. A surface low initially near the ArkLaMiss region is expected to move quickly northeast toward the upper Ohio Valley, with some guidance showing secondary cyclogenesis later in the period along the trailing cold front that will move across the Southeast. ...Parts of MS/AL/GA and the FL Panhandle... The Marginal Risk has been expanded slightly to the south and west, but the previous forecast reasoning remains valid. While generally weak midlevel lapse rates will continue to limit instability across the warm sector Tuesday, modest diurnal heating and mid 60s F dewpoints could support MLCAPE of greater than 500 J/kg into the afternoon, if early-day convection is not too disruptive. Low/midlevel flow will generally strengthen through the day in response to the approaching shortwave trough, resulting in favorably long hodographs and the potential for organized storms. Any sustained cells/clusters within this environment could pose a threat of isolated damaging gusts and possibly a tornado. The northern and eastern extent of the diurnal organized-severe threat will be limited by a spatially constrained warm sector, though a strong storm or two cannot be ruled out from north AL/GA into middle/eastern TN. ...Late Tuesday night from the Carolinas into GA/north FL... A strong south-southwesterly low-level jet is expected to develop across the eastern Carolinas/Georgia late Tuesday night into Wednesday morning, in response to the intensifying mid/upper-level shortwave trough approaching the Southeast. Weak lapse rates and increasingly widespread precipitation will continue to limit instability, but there may be some potential for low-topped convection with gusty winds to spread across parts of GA/north FL into the Carolinas. Some low-level moistening will also be possible in the NC Outer Banks vicinity late in the period, as low-level and deep-layer shear continue to increase, but potential for any robust convection in this area prior to 12Z Wednesday remains very uncertain. ..Dean.. 12/08/2024 Read more