Severe Storms

Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0130 AM CST Wed Jan 22 2025 Valid 251200Z - 301200Z ...DISCUSSION... On Saturday/D4, an upper trough will be exiting the Northeast early, with temporary zonal flow across much of the central and eastern states. The large-scale upper low by this time will be located around Hudson Bay, with a low-amplitude feature possibly rotating eastward across the Great Lakes. To the west, an upper trough and/or cut-off low will drift southward across CA and NV, as upper ridging develops north of there across southern BC and the Pacific NW. High pressure will remain over the eastern states, providing dry and stable conditions. By Sunday/D5, southerly low-level winds across TX and into the lower MS Valley will allow for at least elevated instability to develop, and this should favor general thunderstorms from eastern TX to the MS River. Given the weak instability and likelihood of substantial clouds and precipitation, severe weather seems unlikely. This glancing low-level warm/moist advection regime will remain in place into Monday/D6, with additional precipitation likely across parts of the Gulf Coast states. Relatively cool boundary-layer conditions and marginal instability should preclude any severe changes. For the Tuesday/D7 time frame and beyond, the upper trough over the Southwest will eventually proceed east toward the southern Plains, but predictability is low regarding the timing of this feature. Read more

Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0130 AM CST Wed Jan 22 2025 Valid 251200Z - 301200Z ...DISCUSSION... On Saturday/D4, an upper trough will be exiting the Northeast early, with temporary zonal flow across much of the central and eastern states. The large-scale upper low by this time will be located around Hudson Bay, with a low-amplitude feature possibly rotating eastward across the Great Lakes. To the west, an upper trough and/or cut-off low will drift southward across CA and NV, as upper ridging develops north of there across southern BC and the Pacific NW. High pressure will remain over the eastern states, providing dry and stable conditions. By Sunday/D5, southerly low-level winds across TX and into the lower MS Valley will allow for at least elevated instability to develop, and this should favor general thunderstorms from eastern TX to the MS River. Given the weak instability and likelihood of substantial clouds and precipitation, severe weather seems unlikely. This glancing low-level warm/moist advection regime will remain in place into Monday/D6, with additional precipitation likely across parts of the Gulf Coast states. Relatively cool boundary-layer conditions and marginal instability should preclude any severe changes. For the Tuesday/D7 time frame and beyond, the upper trough over the Southwest will eventually proceed east toward the southern Plains, but predictability is low regarding the timing of this feature. Read more

Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0130 AM CST Wed Jan 22 2025 Valid 251200Z - 301200Z ...DISCUSSION... On Saturday/D4, an upper trough will be exiting the Northeast early, with temporary zonal flow across much of the central and eastern states. The large-scale upper low by this time will be located around Hudson Bay, with a low-amplitude feature possibly rotating eastward across the Great Lakes. To the west, an upper trough and/or cut-off low will drift southward across CA and NV, as upper ridging develops north of there across southern BC and the Pacific NW. High pressure will remain over the eastern states, providing dry and stable conditions. By Sunday/D5, southerly low-level winds across TX and into the lower MS Valley will allow for at least elevated instability to develop, and this should favor general thunderstorms from eastern TX to the MS River. Given the weak instability and likelihood of substantial clouds and precipitation, severe weather seems unlikely. This glancing low-level warm/moist advection regime will remain in place into Monday/D6, with additional precipitation likely across parts of the Gulf Coast states. Relatively cool boundary-layer conditions and marginal instability should preclude any severe changes. For the Tuesday/D7 time frame and beyond, the upper trough over the Southwest will eventually proceed east toward the southern Plains, but predictability is low regarding the timing of this feature. Read more

MD 0054 CONCERNING WINTER MIXED PRECIPITATION FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN GEORGIA INTO NORTHERN FLORIDA
Mesoscale Discussion 0054 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1052 PM CST Tue Jan 21 2025 Areas affected...portions of southern Georgia into northern Florida Concerning...Winter mixed precipitation Valid 220452Z - 220745Z SUMMARY...A wintry mix should continue into the early morning hours, with instances of moderate snow, sleet, and perhaps freezing rain expected. DISCUSSION...A belt of strong 700 mb warm-air and moisture advection is overspreading southern GA into northern FL in response to a rapidly approaching mid-level trough. While RAP forecast soundings suggest that much of the vertical profile below 600 mb may be above freezing at several locales, 04Z mesoanalysis shows strong surface-850 mb CAA impinging on the GA/FL border, where MRMS mosaic radar data shows bright banding taking place, and where surface observations indicate snow, sleet, and freezing rain becoming the predominant precipitation modes. Continued CAA should result in wintry mixed precipitation overspreading the rest of far northern FL and continuing into the early morning hours, in agreement with the latest high-resolution guidance consensus. ..Squitieri.. 01/22/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...CHS...TBW...JAX...FFC...TAE... LAT...LON 30098570 31238420 32128278 32368214 32338142 32108105 31578124 30628151 30258180 29858245 29578288 29478315 29518334 29828369 30018395 29908428 29718461 29608484 29588509 29668539 30098570 Read more

SPC 0830Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0125 AM CST Wed Jan 22 2025 Valid 241200Z - 251200Z ...NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorms are not forecast for Friday. ...Synopsis... On Friday, an upper trough will extend from the Great Lakes southwestward into TX, with strong southwest flow aloft from across the Southeast. This trough will be progressive and move off the East Coast by early Saturday, allowing for rising heights/warming aloft across much of the CONUS. Meanwhile, another upper trough will develop southward into parts of the northwestern states. At the surface, substantial cool and/or dry air will remain from the Four Corners states eastward to the Atlantic Coast, with offshore winds over the Gulf of Mexico. Elsewhere, while cooling aloft will occur overnight over the northwest USA, little to no instability is forecast due to cold surface conditions. ..Jewell.. 01/22/2025 Read more

SPC 0830Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0125 AM CST Wed Jan 22 2025 Valid 241200Z - 251200Z ...NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorms are not forecast for Friday. ...Synopsis... On Friday, an upper trough will extend from the Great Lakes southwestward into TX, with strong southwest flow aloft from across the Southeast. This trough will be progressive and move off the East Coast by early Saturday, allowing for rising heights/warming aloft across much of the CONUS. Meanwhile, another upper trough will develop southward into parts of the northwestern states. At the surface, substantial cool and/or dry air will remain from the Four Corners states eastward to the Atlantic Coast, with offshore winds over the Gulf of Mexico. Elsewhere, while cooling aloft will occur overnight over the northwest USA, little to no instability is forecast due to cold surface conditions. ..Jewell.. 01/22/2025 Read more

SPC 0830Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0125 AM CST Wed Jan 22 2025 Valid 241200Z - 251200Z ...NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorms are not forecast for Friday. ...Synopsis... On Friday, an upper trough will extend from the Great Lakes southwestward into TX, with strong southwest flow aloft from across the Southeast. This trough will be progressive and move off the East Coast by early Saturday, allowing for rising heights/warming aloft across much of the CONUS. Meanwhile, another upper trough will develop southward into parts of the northwestern states. At the surface, substantial cool and/or dry air will remain from the Four Corners states eastward to the Atlantic Coast, with offshore winds over the Gulf of Mexico. Elsewhere, while cooling aloft will occur overnight over the northwest USA, little to no instability is forecast due to cold surface conditions. ..Jewell.. 01/22/2025 Read more

SPC 0830Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0125 AM CST Wed Jan 22 2025 Valid 241200Z - 251200Z ...NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorms are not forecast for Friday. ...Synopsis... On Friday, an upper trough will extend from the Great Lakes southwestward into TX, with strong southwest flow aloft from across the Southeast. This trough will be progressive and move off the East Coast by early Saturday, allowing for rising heights/warming aloft across much of the CONUS. Meanwhile, another upper trough will develop southward into parts of the northwestern states. At the surface, substantial cool and/or dry air will remain from the Four Corners states eastward to the Atlantic Coast, with offshore winds over the Gulf of Mexico. Elsewhere, while cooling aloft will occur overnight over the northwest USA, little to no instability is forecast due to cold surface conditions. ..Jewell.. 01/22/2025 Read more

SPC 0830Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0125 AM CST Wed Jan 22 2025 Valid 241200Z - 251200Z ...NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorms are not forecast for Friday. ...Synopsis... On Friday, an upper trough will extend from the Great Lakes southwestward into TX, with strong southwest flow aloft from across the Southeast. This trough will be progressive and move off the East Coast by early Saturday, allowing for rising heights/warming aloft across much of the CONUS. Meanwhile, another upper trough will develop southward into parts of the northwestern states. At the surface, substantial cool and/or dry air will remain from the Four Corners states eastward to the Atlantic Coast, with offshore winds over the Gulf of Mexico. Elsewhere, while cooling aloft will occur overnight over the northwest USA, little to no instability is forecast due to cold surface conditions. ..Jewell.. 01/22/2025 Read more

SPC 0700Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1147 PM CST Tue Jan 21 2025 Valid 231200Z - 241200Z ...NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorms are not forecast on Thursday. ...Synopsis... A cool and stable pattern will persist on Thursday across the CONUS, with a sprawling area of high pressure stretching from the Great Basin to the East Coast. An elongated, positive-tilt upper trough will extend from Quebec southwestward across the Great Lakes and into the southern High Plains by 00Z, and will move toward the MS Valley into Friday morning. Given high pressure at the surface, and generally dry westerly flow above the stable surface layer over the Southeast, thunderstorms remain unlikely. ..Jewell.. 01/22/2025 Read more

SPC 0700Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1147 PM CST Tue Jan 21 2025 Valid 231200Z - 241200Z ...NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorms are not forecast on Thursday. ...Synopsis... A cool and stable pattern will persist on Thursday across the CONUS, with a sprawling area of high pressure stretching from the Great Basin to the East Coast. An elongated, positive-tilt upper trough will extend from Quebec southwestward across the Great Lakes and into the southern High Plains by 00Z, and will move toward the MS Valley into Friday morning. Given high pressure at the surface, and generally dry westerly flow above the stable surface layer over the Southeast, thunderstorms remain unlikely. ..Jewell.. 01/22/2025 Read more

SPC 0700Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1147 PM CST Tue Jan 21 2025 Valid 231200Z - 241200Z ...NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorms are not forecast on Thursday. ...Synopsis... A cool and stable pattern will persist on Thursday across the CONUS, with a sprawling area of high pressure stretching from the Great Basin to the East Coast. An elongated, positive-tilt upper trough will extend from Quebec southwestward across the Great Lakes and into the southern High Plains by 00Z, and will move toward the MS Valley into Friday morning. Given high pressure at the surface, and generally dry westerly flow above the stable surface layer over the Southeast, thunderstorms remain unlikely. ..Jewell.. 01/22/2025 Read more

SPC 0700Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1147 PM CST Tue Jan 21 2025 Valid 231200Z - 241200Z ...NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorms are not forecast on Thursday. ...Synopsis... A cool and stable pattern will persist on Thursday across the CONUS, with a sprawling area of high pressure stretching from the Great Basin to the East Coast. An elongated, positive-tilt upper trough will extend from Quebec southwestward across the Great Lakes and into the southern High Plains by 00Z, and will move toward the MS Valley into Friday morning. Given high pressure at the surface, and generally dry westerly flow above the stable surface layer over the Southeast, thunderstorms remain unlikely. ..Jewell.. 01/22/2025 Read more

SPC 0700Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1147 PM CST Tue Jan 21 2025 Valid 231200Z - 241200Z ...NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorms are not forecast on Thursday. ...Synopsis... A cool and stable pattern will persist on Thursday across the CONUS, with a sprawling area of high pressure stretching from the Great Basin to the East Coast. An elongated, positive-tilt upper trough will extend from Quebec southwestward across the Great Lakes and into the southern High Plains by 00Z, and will move toward the MS Valley into Friday morning. Given high pressure at the surface, and generally dry westerly flow above the stable surface layer over the Southeast, thunderstorms remain unlikely. ..Jewell.. 01/22/2025 Read more

SPC 0700Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1147 PM CST Tue Jan 21 2025 Valid 231200Z - 241200Z ...NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorms are not forecast on Thursday. ...Synopsis... A cool and stable pattern will persist on Thursday across the CONUS, with a sprawling area of high pressure stretching from the Great Basin to the East Coast. An elongated, positive-tilt upper trough will extend from Quebec southwestward across the Great Lakes and into the southern High Plains by 00Z, and will move toward the MS Valley into Friday morning. Given high pressure at the surface, and generally dry westerly flow above the stable surface layer over the Southeast, thunderstorms remain unlikely. ..Jewell.. 01/22/2025 Read more

MD 0053 CONCERNING HEAVY SNOW FOR CENTRAL AND EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE CAROLINAS
Mesoscale Discussion 0053 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0801 PM CST Tue Jan 21 2025 Areas affected...central and eastern portions of the Carolinas Concerning...Heavy snow Valid 220201Z - 220700Z SUMMARY...Moderate to heavy snow should gradually become widespread through early tonight across portions of the central and eastern Carolinas. DISCUSSION...700 mb warm-air and moisture advection are increasing over central and eastern parts of the Carolinas with the approach of a pronounced 500 mb trough that is traversing the central Appalachians. Beneath the 700 mb moistening, strong surface-850 mb cold-air advection is contributing to further saturation and sensible cooling of the column to support a predominance of snow, which is currently being indicated by surface observations on a widespread basis. Ahead of the upper trough, 700 mb frontogenesis is intensifying, which should support increased snowfall rates. As such, in addition to the transition to snow, 0.5-1.0 inch/hour snowfall rates may develop over the next couple of hours, as also suggested by some of the latest high-resolution guidance runs. ..Squitieri.. 01/22/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...AKQ...MHX...RAH...ILM...CHS...CAE...GSP... LAT...LON 31968072 32388112 33088159 33798169 34438124 35427983 35787825 36017695 36227604 35877554 35337562 34927650 34557721 34057805 33607881 32857959 32288042 31968072 Read more

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1037 PM CST Tue Jan 21 2025 Valid 221200Z - 231200Z ...NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... The risk for thunderstorms appears negligible across the U.S. today through tonight. ...Discussion... Models indicate that mid-level ridging across the far western Canadian Provinces will become suppressed by another short wave perturbation emerging from the upstream mid-latitude Pacific, but not before downstream troughing continues to dig southeast and south of the northern U.S. Rockies. This will reinforce larger scale troughing across much of the interior into eastern United States. Although surface ridging initially across much of the Gulf Coast and Atlantic Seaboard is forecast to weaken, seasonably cold and stable boundary-layer conditions may be slow to moderate. It appears that another expansive surface ridge will build across the Great Basin/Rockies into the Great Plains, with a reinforcing intrusion of arctic air surging through much of the upper Mississippi Valley and northeastern Great Plains, today through 12Z Thursday. ..Kerr.. 01/22/2025 Read more

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1037 PM CST Tue Jan 21 2025 Valid 221200Z - 231200Z ...NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... The risk for thunderstorms appears negligible across the U.S. today through tonight. ...Discussion... Models indicate that mid-level ridging across the far western Canadian Provinces will become suppressed by another short wave perturbation emerging from the upstream mid-latitude Pacific, but not before downstream troughing continues to dig southeast and south of the northern U.S. Rockies. This will reinforce larger scale troughing across much of the interior into eastern United States. Although surface ridging initially across much of the Gulf Coast and Atlantic Seaboard is forecast to weaken, seasonably cold and stable boundary-layer conditions may be slow to moderate. It appears that another expansive surface ridge will build across the Great Basin/Rockies into the Great Plains, with a reinforcing intrusion of arctic air surging through much of the upper Mississippi Valley and northeastern Great Plains, today through 12Z Thursday. ..Kerr.. 01/22/2025 Read more

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1037 PM CST Tue Jan 21 2025 Valid 221200Z - 231200Z ...NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... The risk for thunderstorms appears negligible across the U.S. today through tonight. ...Discussion... Models indicate that mid-level ridging across the far western Canadian Provinces will become suppressed by another short wave perturbation emerging from the upstream mid-latitude Pacific, but not before downstream troughing continues to dig southeast and south of the northern U.S. Rockies. This will reinforce larger scale troughing across much of the interior into eastern United States. Although surface ridging initially across much of the Gulf Coast and Atlantic Seaboard is forecast to weaken, seasonably cold and stable boundary-layer conditions may be slow to moderate. It appears that another expansive surface ridge will build across the Great Basin/Rockies into the Great Plains, with a reinforcing intrusion of arctic air surging through much of the upper Mississippi Valley and northeastern Great Plains, today through 12Z Thursday. ..Kerr.. 01/22/2025 Read more

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1037 PM CST Tue Jan 21 2025 Valid 221200Z - 231200Z ...NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... The risk for thunderstorms appears negligible across the U.S. today through tonight. ...Discussion... Models indicate that mid-level ridging across the far western Canadian Provinces will become suppressed by another short wave perturbation emerging from the upstream mid-latitude Pacific, but not before downstream troughing continues to dig southeast and south of the northern U.S. Rockies. This will reinforce larger scale troughing across much of the interior into eastern United States. Although surface ridging initially across much of the Gulf Coast and Atlantic Seaboard is forecast to weaken, seasonably cold and stable boundary-layer conditions may be slow to moderate. It appears that another expansive surface ridge will build across the Great Basin/Rockies into the Great Plains, with a reinforcing intrusion of arctic air surging through much of the upper Mississippi Valley and northeastern Great Plains, today through 12Z Thursday. ..Kerr.. 01/22/2025 Read more