Severe Storms

SPC 1930Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1248 PM CST Tue Jan 21 2025 Valid 231200Z - 241200Z ...NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorms are not forecast on Thursday. ...Synopsis... A large mid/upper-level trough will persist from the south-central Great Plains into the eastern CONUS on Thursday, as multiple embedded shortwaves move southeastward through the larger-scale trough. Generally dry and stable conditions in the wake of a significant cold intrusion should continue to limit thunderstorm potential through the period. ..Dean.. 01/21/2025 Read more

SPC 1930Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1248 PM CST Tue Jan 21 2025 Valid 231200Z - 241200Z ...NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorms are not forecast on Thursday. ...Synopsis... A large mid/upper-level trough will persist from the south-central Great Plains into the eastern CONUS on Thursday, as multiple embedded shortwaves move southeastward through the larger-scale trough. Generally dry and stable conditions in the wake of a significant cold intrusion should continue to limit thunderstorm potential through the period. ..Dean.. 01/21/2025 Read more

SPC 1930Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1248 PM CST Tue Jan 21 2025 Valid 231200Z - 241200Z ...NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorms are not forecast on Thursday. ...Synopsis... A large mid/upper-level trough will persist from the south-central Great Plains into the eastern CONUS on Thursday, as multiple embedded shortwaves move southeastward through the larger-scale trough. Generally dry and stable conditions in the wake of a significant cold intrusion should continue to limit thunderstorm potential through the period. ..Dean.. 01/21/2025 Read more

SPC 1930Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1248 PM CST Tue Jan 21 2025 Valid 231200Z - 241200Z ...NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorms are not forecast on Thursday. ...Synopsis... A large mid/upper-level trough will persist from the south-central Great Plains into the eastern CONUS on Thursday, as multiple embedded shortwaves move southeastward through the larger-scale trough. Generally dry and stable conditions in the wake of a significant cold intrusion should continue to limit thunderstorm potential through the period. ..Dean.. 01/21/2025 Read more

SPC 1930Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1248 PM CST Tue Jan 21 2025 Valid 231200Z - 241200Z ...NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorms are not forecast on Thursday. ...Synopsis... A large mid/upper-level trough will persist from the south-central Great Plains into the eastern CONUS on Thursday, as multiple embedded shortwaves move southeastward through the larger-scale trough. Generally dry and stable conditions in the wake of a significant cold intrusion should continue to limit thunderstorm potential through the period. ..Dean.. 01/21/2025 Read more

SPC 1930Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1248 PM CST Tue Jan 21 2025 Valid 231200Z - 241200Z ...NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorms are not forecast on Thursday. ...Synopsis... A large mid/upper-level trough will persist from the south-central Great Plains into the eastern CONUS on Thursday, as multiple embedded shortwaves move southeastward through the larger-scale trough. Generally dry and stable conditions in the wake of a significant cold intrusion should continue to limit thunderstorm potential through the period. ..Dean.. 01/21/2025 Read more

SPC 1930Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1248 PM CST Tue Jan 21 2025 Valid 231200Z - 241200Z ...NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorms are not forecast on Thursday. ...Synopsis... A large mid/upper-level trough will persist from the south-central Great Plains into the eastern CONUS on Thursday, as multiple embedded shortwaves move southeastward through the larger-scale trough. Generally dry and stable conditions in the wake of a significant cold intrusion should continue to limit thunderstorm potential through the period. ..Dean.. 01/21/2025 Read more

MD 0048 CONCERNING HEAVY SNOW FOR SOUTHEAST LOUISIANA...SOUTHERN MISSISSIPPI AND FAR SOUTHERN ALABAMA
Mesoscale Discussion 0048 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0846 AM CST Tue Jan 21 2025 Areas affected...Southeast Louisiana...southern Mississippi and far southern Alabama Concerning...Heavy snow Valid 211446Z - 211845Z SUMMARY...Moderate to heavy snow to continue this morning and through the afternoon. Some blowing and drifting is also expected. DISCUSSION...An expansive region of light to occasionally moderate snow has spread across much of the central Gulf coast this morning. Expect precipitation rates to increase through the late morning and afternoon with widespread moderate to occasionally heavy snowfall rates expected. In addition, some stronger winds, particularly closer to the coast will lead to some blowing and drifting. Areas with northward exposure (ex. southern short of Lake Pontchartrain) may see some localized blizzard conditions through the day. Some mixed precipitation is being observed from southern Terrebonne Parish to southern St. Bernard Parish where a warm nose (seen just below 700mb on the LIX 12Z RAOB) is slightly above freezing. 60 knots of southwesterly flow in this warm nose will attempt to maintain its presence across the region while temperatures aloft continue to cool. Expect the cold air to eventually win out with snow likely across all of southern Louisiana by later this afternoon. ..Bentley.. 01/21/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...MOB...JAN...LIX...LCH... LAT...LON 31019159 31519076 31608898 31238781 30798754 30218756 30198828 30138865 29938871 29528885 29078901 28908909 28948999 29049087 29309164 29419195 30419196 31019159 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1124 AM CST Tue Jan 21 2025 Valid 221200Z - 231200Z ...NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorms are not expected on Wednesday. ...Synopsis... A deep mid/upper-level trough will remain in place over most of the CONUS on Wednesday. Anomalously cold conditions are expected from the Great Plains to the Eastern Seaboard, in the wake of a strong cold front. Weak MUCAPE may persist across far south FL and the Keys very early in the forecast period, but deep convection appears unlikely due to warm temperatures aloft and decreasing large-scale ascent with time. Elsewhere, dry and stable conditions will limit thunderstorm potential. ..Dean.. 01/21/2025 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1124 AM CST Tue Jan 21 2025 Valid 221200Z - 231200Z ...NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorms are not expected on Wednesday. ...Synopsis... A deep mid/upper-level trough will remain in place over most of the CONUS on Wednesday. Anomalously cold conditions are expected from the Great Plains to the Eastern Seaboard, in the wake of a strong cold front. Weak MUCAPE may persist across far south FL and the Keys very early in the forecast period, but deep convection appears unlikely due to warm temperatures aloft and decreasing large-scale ascent with time. Elsewhere, dry and stable conditions will limit thunderstorm potential. ..Dean.. 01/21/2025 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1124 AM CST Tue Jan 21 2025 Valid 221200Z - 231200Z ...NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorms are not expected on Wednesday. ...Synopsis... A deep mid/upper-level trough will remain in place over most of the CONUS on Wednesday. Anomalously cold conditions are expected from the Great Plains to the Eastern Seaboard, in the wake of a strong cold front. Weak MUCAPE may persist across far south FL and the Keys very early in the forecast period, but deep convection appears unlikely due to warm temperatures aloft and decreasing large-scale ascent with time. Elsewhere, dry and stable conditions will limit thunderstorm potential. ..Dean.. 01/21/2025 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1124 AM CST Tue Jan 21 2025 Valid 221200Z - 231200Z ...NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorms are not expected on Wednesday. ...Synopsis... A deep mid/upper-level trough will remain in place over most of the CONUS on Wednesday. Anomalously cold conditions are expected from the Great Plains to the Eastern Seaboard, in the wake of a strong cold front. Weak MUCAPE may persist across far south FL and the Keys very early in the forecast period, but deep convection appears unlikely due to warm temperatures aloft and decreasing large-scale ascent with time. Elsewhere, dry and stable conditions will limit thunderstorm potential. ..Dean.. 01/21/2025 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1124 AM CST Tue Jan 21 2025 Valid 221200Z - 231200Z ...NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorms are not expected on Wednesday. ...Synopsis... A deep mid/upper-level trough will remain in place over most of the CONUS on Wednesday. Anomalously cold conditions are expected from the Great Plains to the Eastern Seaboard, in the wake of a strong cold front. Weak MUCAPE may persist across far south FL and the Keys very early in the forecast period, but deep convection appears unlikely due to warm temperatures aloft and decreasing large-scale ascent with time. Elsewhere, dry and stable conditions will limit thunderstorm potential. ..Dean.. 01/21/2025 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1124 AM CST Tue Jan 21 2025 Valid 221200Z - 231200Z ...NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorms are not expected on Wednesday. ...Synopsis... A deep mid/upper-level trough will remain in place over most of the CONUS on Wednesday. Anomalously cold conditions are expected from the Great Plains to the Eastern Seaboard, in the wake of a strong cold front. Weak MUCAPE may persist across far south FL and the Keys very early in the forecast period, but deep convection appears unlikely due to warm temperatures aloft and decreasing large-scale ascent with time. Elsewhere, dry and stable conditions will limit thunderstorm potential. ..Dean.. 01/21/2025 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1124 AM CST Tue Jan 21 2025 Valid 221200Z - 231200Z ...NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorms are not expected on Wednesday. ...Synopsis... A deep mid/upper-level trough will remain in place over most of the CONUS on Wednesday. Anomalously cold conditions are expected from the Great Plains to the Eastern Seaboard, in the wake of a strong cold front. Weak MUCAPE may persist across far south FL and the Keys very early in the forecast period, but deep convection appears unlikely due to warm temperatures aloft and decreasing large-scale ascent with time. Elsewhere, dry and stable conditions will limit thunderstorm potential. ..Dean.. 01/21/2025 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1124 AM CST Tue Jan 21 2025 Valid 221200Z - 231200Z ...NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorms are not expected on Wednesday. ...Synopsis... A deep mid/upper-level trough will remain in place over most of the CONUS on Wednesday. Anomalously cold conditions are expected from the Great Plains to the Eastern Seaboard, in the wake of a strong cold front. Weak MUCAPE may persist across far south FL and the Keys very early in the forecast period, but deep convection appears unlikely due to warm temperatures aloft and decreasing large-scale ascent with time. Elsewhere, dry and stable conditions will limit thunderstorm potential. ..Dean.. 01/21/2025 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1124 AM CST Tue Jan 21 2025 Valid 221200Z - 231200Z ...NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorms are not expected on Wednesday. ...Synopsis... A deep mid/upper-level trough will remain in place over most of the CONUS on Wednesday. Anomalously cold conditions are expected from the Great Plains to the Eastern Seaboard, in the wake of a strong cold front. Weak MUCAPE may persist across far south FL and the Keys very early in the forecast period, but deep convection appears unlikely due to warm temperatures aloft and decreasing large-scale ascent with time. Elsewhere, dry and stable conditions will limit thunderstorm potential. ..Dean.. 01/21/2025 Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1100 AM CST Tue Jan 21 2025 Valid 211700Z - 221200Z ...EXTREMELY CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR THE SAN GABRIEL MOUNTAINS WEST TOWARDS THE MALIBU COAST... ...EXTREMELY CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR PORTIONS OF THE SAN JACINTO TO LAGUNA MOUNTAIN RANGES... ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR MUCH OF SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA... The previous forecast (see below) remains on track, and only minor changes were made to the Extremely Critical highlights in Los Angeles County and Ventura County -- based on the latest surface observations and high-resolution guidance. The offshore pressure gradient should be peaking over the next few hours (latest LAX-DAG gradient around -6.5 mb), and this will be the period of strongest offshore winds and potential for extremely critical conditions. Thereafter, critical conditions should persist into this evening, when an overall decrease in the pressure gradient and surface winds is expected. ..Weinman.. 01/21/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0156 AM CST Tue Jan 21 2025/ ...Synopsis... A mid-level trough across the southwest U.S. will rapidly track eastward toward the Southeast while surface high pressure persists over the Great Basin through the period. Strong offshore flow will persist from the Ventura Valley to the Laguna Mountains, with widespread 20-30 mph sustained winds and 10 percent RH expected during the day into early Wednesday morning, warranting the maintenance of Critical highlights across much of the far southern California shoreline. Furthermore, the latest high-resolution guidance consensus shows sustained winds exceeding 40 mph, coinciding with single-digit RH, from the Ventura Valley to the San Bernardino Mountains, as well as the San Jacinto to Laguna Mountain ranges, where Extremely Critical highlights were maintained. The best chance for Extremely Critical conditions will be during the morning into early afternoon hours. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1100 AM CST Tue Jan 21 2025 Valid 211700Z - 221200Z ...EXTREMELY CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR THE SAN GABRIEL MOUNTAINS WEST TOWARDS THE MALIBU COAST... ...EXTREMELY CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR PORTIONS OF THE SAN JACINTO TO LAGUNA MOUNTAIN RANGES... ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR MUCH OF SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA... The previous forecast (see below) remains on track, and only minor changes were made to the Extremely Critical highlights in Los Angeles County and Ventura County -- based on the latest surface observations and high-resolution guidance. The offshore pressure gradient should be peaking over the next few hours (latest LAX-DAG gradient around -6.5 mb), and this will be the period of strongest offshore winds and potential for extremely critical conditions. Thereafter, critical conditions should persist into this evening, when an overall decrease in the pressure gradient and surface winds is expected. ..Weinman.. 01/21/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0156 AM CST Tue Jan 21 2025/ ...Synopsis... A mid-level trough across the southwest U.S. will rapidly track eastward toward the Southeast while surface high pressure persists over the Great Basin through the period. Strong offshore flow will persist from the Ventura Valley to the Laguna Mountains, with widespread 20-30 mph sustained winds and 10 percent RH expected during the day into early Wednesday morning, warranting the maintenance of Critical highlights across much of the far southern California shoreline. Furthermore, the latest high-resolution guidance consensus shows sustained winds exceeding 40 mph, coinciding with single-digit RH, from the Ventura Valley to the San Bernardino Mountains, as well as the San Jacinto to Laguna Mountain ranges, where Extremely Critical highlights were maintained. The best chance for Extremely Critical conditions will be during the morning into early afternoon hours. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1100 AM CST Tue Jan 21 2025 Valid 211700Z - 221200Z ...EXTREMELY CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR THE SAN GABRIEL MOUNTAINS WEST TOWARDS THE MALIBU COAST... ...EXTREMELY CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR PORTIONS OF THE SAN JACINTO TO LAGUNA MOUNTAIN RANGES... ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR MUCH OF SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA... The previous forecast (see below) remains on track, and only minor changes were made to the Extremely Critical highlights in Los Angeles County and Ventura County -- based on the latest surface observations and high-resolution guidance. The offshore pressure gradient should be peaking over the next few hours (latest LAX-DAG gradient around -6.5 mb), and this will be the period of strongest offshore winds and potential for extremely critical conditions. Thereafter, critical conditions should persist into this evening, when an overall decrease in the pressure gradient and surface winds is expected. ..Weinman.. 01/21/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0156 AM CST Tue Jan 21 2025/ ...Synopsis... A mid-level trough across the southwest U.S. will rapidly track eastward toward the Southeast while surface high pressure persists over the Great Basin through the period. Strong offshore flow will persist from the Ventura Valley to the Laguna Mountains, with widespread 20-30 mph sustained winds and 10 percent RH expected during the day into early Wednesday morning, warranting the maintenance of Critical highlights across much of the far southern California shoreline. Furthermore, the latest high-resolution guidance consensus shows sustained winds exceeding 40 mph, coinciding with single-digit RH, from the Ventura Valley to the San Bernardino Mountains, as well as the San Jacinto to Laguna Mountain ranges, where Extremely Critical highlights were maintained. The best chance for Extremely Critical conditions will be during the morning into early afternoon hours. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more