Severe Storms

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1026 AM CST Wed Jan 22 2025 Valid 221630Z - 231200Z ...NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... The risk for thunderstorms appears negligible across the U.S. today through tonight. ...Synopsis... The upper troughing currently in place across much of the CONUS is expected to persist throughout the day, reinforced by a shortwave trough forecast to move southward across the Four Corner and into NM and another shortwave trough that is expected to move southward through the northern Rockies late tonight/early tomorrow. At the surface, expansive and cold high pressure, currently centered over western PA, will gradually shift eastward, while maintain offshore flow along the East and Gulf Coasts. Cold high pressure is also in place across the western CONUS. This area of high pressure will likely strengthen throughout the period, potentially exceeding 1050 mb over eastern ID tomorrow morning. Dry and stable conditions promoted by these features will preclude thunderstorm development. ..Mosier.. 01/22/2025 Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1026 AM CST Wed Jan 22 2025 Valid 221630Z - 231200Z ...NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... The risk for thunderstorms appears negligible across the U.S. today through tonight. ...Synopsis... The upper troughing currently in place across much of the CONUS is expected to persist throughout the day, reinforced by a shortwave trough forecast to move southward across the Four Corner and into NM and another shortwave trough that is expected to move southward through the northern Rockies late tonight/early tomorrow. At the surface, expansive and cold high pressure, currently centered over western PA, will gradually shift eastward, while maintain offshore flow along the East and Gulf Coasts. Cold high pressure is also in place across the western CONUS. This area of high pressure will likely strengthen throughout the period, potentially exceeding 1050 mb over eastern ID tomorrow morning. Dry and stable conditions promoted by these features will preclude thunderstorm development. ..Mosier.. 01/22/2025 Read more

SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0622 AM CST Wed Jan 22 2025 Valid 221300Z - 231200Z ...NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... The risk for thunderstorms appears negligible across the U.S. today through tonight. An expansive and cold upper trough remains in place across the contiguous United States today, with dry and stable conditions precluding thunderstorms. ..Hart/Wendt.. 01/22/2025 Read more

SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0622 AM CST Wed Jan 22 2025 Valid 221300Z - 231200Z ...NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... The risk for thunderstorms appears negligible across the U.S. today through tonight. An expansive and cold upper trough remains in place across the contiguous United States today, with dry and stable conditions precluding thunderstorms. ..Hart/Wendt.. 01/22/2025 Read more

SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0622 AM CST Wed Jan 22 2025 Valid 221300Z - 231200Z ...NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... The risk for thunderstorms appears negligible across the U.S. today through tonight. An expansive and cold upper trough remains in place across the contiguous United States today, with dry and stable conditions precluding thunderstorms. ..Hart/Wendt.. 01/22/2025 Read more

SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0622 AM CST Wed Jan 22 2025 Valid 221300Z - 231200Z ...NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... The risk for thunderstorms appears negligible across the U.S. today through tonight. An expansive and cold upper trough remains in place across the contiguous United States today, with dry and stable conditions precluding thunderstorms. ..Hart/Wendt.. 01/22/2025 Read more

SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0622 AM CST Wed Jan 22 2025 Valid 221300Z - 231200Z ...NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... The risk for thunderstorms appears negligible across the U.S. today through tonight. An expansive and cold upper trough remains in place across the contiguous United States today, with dry and stable conditions precluding thunderstorms. ..Hart/Wendt.. 01/22/2025 Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0157 AM CST Wed Jan 22 2025 Valid 231200Z - 241200Z ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA... ...Synopsis... Conditions favorable for rapid wildfire spread will continue into tomorrow (Thursday) along coastal portions of southern California, particularly in terrain-favoring areas. Model guidance consensus suggests that the surface pressure gradient will be strongest shortly after 12Z Thursday morning. During the morning, offshore sustained winds should exceed 20 mph on a widespread basis. Furthermore, some high-resolution guidance suggests that brief instances of sustained winds well over 50 mph (with higher gusts approaching 70 mph) may occur over the higher terrain of the San Gabriel to Laguna Mountain ranges. These very strong winds amid 10 percent RH will support high-end Critical conditions, with at least locally Extremely Critical conditions likely in spots. ..Squitieri.. 01/22/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0157 AM CST Wed Jan 22 2025 Valid 231200Z - 241200Z ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA... ...Synopsis... Conditions favorable for rapid wildfire spread will continue into tomorrow (Thursday) along coastal portions of southern California, particularly in terrain-favoring areas. Model guidance consensus suggests that the surface pressure gradient will be strongest shortly after 12Z Thursday morning. During the morning, offshore sustained winds should exceed 20 mph on a widespread basis. Furthermore, some high-resolution guidance suggests that brief instances of sustained winds well over 50 mph (with higher gusts approaching 70 mph) may occur over the higher terrain of the San Gabriel to Laguna Mountain ranges. These very strong winds amid 10 percent RH will support high-end Critical conditions, with at least locally Extremely Critical conditions likely in spots. ..Squitieri.. 01/22/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0157 AM CST Wed Jan 22 2025 Valid 231200Z - 241200Z ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA... ...Synopsis... Conditions favorable for rapid wildfire spread will continue into tomorrow (Thursday) along coastal portions of southern California, particularly in terrain-favoring areas. Model guidance consensus suggests that the surface pressure gradient will be strongest shortly after 12Z Thursday morning. During the morning, offshore sustained winds should exceed 20 mph on a widespread basis. Furthermore, some high-resolution guidance suggests that brief instances of sustained winds well over 50 mph (with higher gusts approaching 70 mph) may occur over the higher terrain of the San Gabriel to Laguna Mountain ranges. These very strong winds amid 10 percent RH will support high-end Critical conditions, with at least locally Extremely Critical conditions likely in spots. ..Squitieri.. 01/22/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0157 AM CST Wed Jan 22 2025 Valid 231200Z - 241200Z ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA... ...Synopsis... Conditions favorable for rapid wildfire spread will continue into tomorrow (Thursday) along coastal portions of southern California, particularly in terrain-favoring areas. Model guidance consensus suggests that the surface pressure gradient will be strongest shortly after 12Z Thursday morning. During the morning, offshore sustained winds should exceed 20 mph on a widespread basis. Furthermore, some high-resolution guidance suggests that brief instances of sustained winds well over 50 mph (with higher gusts approaching 70 mph) may occur over the higher terrain of the San Gabriel to Laguna Mountain ranges. These very strong winds amid 10 percent RH will support high-end Critical conditions, with at least locally Extremely Critical conditions likely in spots. ..Squitieri.. 01/22/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0157 AM CST Wed Jan 22 2025 Valid 231200Z - 241200Z ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA... ...Synopsis... Conditions favorable for rapid wildfire spread will continue into tomorrow (Thursday) along coastal portions of southern California, particularly in terrain-favoring areas. Model guidance consensus suggests that the surface pressure gradient will be strongest shortly after 12Z Thursday morning. During the morning, offshore sustained winds should exceed 20 mph on a widespread basis. Furthermore, some high-resolution guidance suggests that brief instances of sustained winds well over 50 mph (with higher gusts approaching 70 mph) may occur over the higher terrain of the San Gabriel to Laguna Mountain ranges. These very strong winds amid 10 percent RH will support high-end Critical conditions, with at least locally Extremely Critical conditions likely in spots. ..Squitieri.. 01/22/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0157 AM CST Wed Jan 22 2025 Valid 221200Z - 231200Z ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA... ...Synopsis... An amplifying mid-level trough will graze the West Coast today, resulting in a tightening of the surface pressure gradient across southern California, where dry offshore flow will continue to support favorable wildfire-spread conditions. By late afternoon, widespread 20+ mph sustained winds overlapping with 10-15 percent RH will be likely across much of the southern California coastline. Across terrain-favoring areas, localized instances of sustained 40 mph winds (perhaps with higher gusts) and near-single-digit RH are possible, warranting the maintenance of Critical highlights this outlook. ..Squitieri.. 01/22/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0157 AM CST Wed Jan 22 2025 Valid 221200Z - 231200Z ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA... ...Synopsis... An amplifying mid-level trough will graze the West Coast today, resulting in a tightening of the surface pressure gradient across southern California, where dry offshore flow will continue to support favorable wildfire-spread conditions. By late afternoon, widespread 20+ mph sustained winds overlapping with 10-15 percent RH will be likely across much of the southern California coastline. Across terrain-favoring areas, localized instances of sustained 40 mph winds (perhaps with higher gusts) and near-single-digit RH are possible, warranting the maintenance of Critical highlights this outlook. ..Squitieri.. 01/22/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0157 AM CST Wed Jan 22 2025 Valid 221200Z - 231200Z ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA... ...Synopsis... An amplifying mid-level trough will graze the West Coast today, resulting in a tightening of the surface pressure gradient across southern California, where dry offshore flow will continue to support favorable wildfire-spread conditions. By late afternoon, widespread 20+ mph sustained winds overlapping with 10-15 percent RH will be likely across much of the southern California coastline. Across terrain-favoring areas, localized instances of sustained 40 mph winds (perhaps with higher gusts) and near-single-digit RH are possible, warranting the maintenance of Critical highlights this outlook. ..Squitieri.. 01/22/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0157 AM CST Wed Jan 22 2025 Valid 221200Z - 231200Z ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA... ...Synopsis... An amplifying mid-level trough will graze the West Coast today, resulting in a tightening of the surface pressure gradient across southern California, where dry offshore flow will continue to support favorable wildfire-spread conditions. By late afternoon, widespread 20+ mph sustained winds overlapping with 10-15 percent RH will be likely across much of the southern California coastline. Across terrain-favoring areas, localized instances of sustained 40 mph winds (perhaps with higher gusts) and near-single-digit RH are possible, warranting the maintenance of Critical highlights this outlook. ..Squitieri.. 01/22/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0157 AM CST Wed Jan 22 2025 Valid 221200Z - 231200Z ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA... ...Synopsis... An amplifying mid-level trough will graze the West Coast today, resulting in a tightening of the surface pressure gradient across southern California, where dry offshore flow will continue to support favorable wildfire-spread conditions. By late afternoon, widespread 20+ mph sustained winds overlapping with 10-15 percent RH will be likely across much of the southern California coastline. Across terrain-favoring areas, localized instances of sustained 40 mph winds (perhaps with higher gusts) and near-single-digit RH are possible, warranting the maintenance of Critical highlights this outlook. ..Squitieri.. 01/22/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0130 AM CST Wed Jan 22 2025 Valid 251200Z - 301200Z ...DISCUSSION... On Saturday/D4, an upper trough will be exiting the Northeast early, with temporary zonal flow across much of the central and eastern states. The large-scale upper low by this time will be located around Hudson Bay, with a low-amplitude feature possibly rotating eastward across the Great Lakes. To the west, an upper trough and/or cut-off low will drift southward across CA and NV, as upper ridging develops north of there across southern BC and the Pacific NW. High pressure will remain over the eastern states, providing dry and stable conditions. By Sunday/D5, southerly low-level winds across TX and into the lower MS Valley will allow for at least elevated instability to develop, and this should favor general thunderstorms from eastern TX to the MS River. Given the weak instability and likelihood of substantial clouds and precipitation, severe weather seems unlikely. This glancing low-level warm/moist advection regime will remain in place into Monday/D6, with additional precipitation likely across parts of the Gulf Coast states. Relatively cool boundary-layer conditions and marginal instability should preclude any severe changes. For the Tuesday/D7 time frame and beyond, the upper trough over the Southwest will eventually proceed east toward the southern Plains, but predictability is low regarding the timing of this feature. Read more

Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0130 AM CST Wed Jan 22 2025 Valid 251200Z - 301200Z ...DISCUSSION... On Saturday/D4, an upper trough will be exiting the Northeast early, with temporary zonal flow across much of the central and eastern states. The large-scale upper low by this time will be located around Hudson Bay, with a low-amplitude feature possibly rotating eastward across the Great Lakes. To the west, an upper trough and/or cut-off low will drift southward across CA and NV, as upper ridging develops north of there across southern BC and the Pacific NW. High pressure will remain over the eastern states, providing dry and stable conditions. By Sunday/D5, southerly low-level winds across TX and into the lower MS Valley will allow for at least elevated instability to develop, and this should favor general thunderstorms from eastern TX to the MS River. Given the weak instability and likelihood of substantial clouds and precipitation, severe weather seems unlikely. This glancing low-level warm/moist advection regime will remain in place into Monday/D6, with additional precipitation likely across parts of the Gulf Coast states. Relatively cool boundary-layer conditions and marginal instability should preclude any severe changes. For the Tuesday/D7 time frame and beyond, the upper trough over the Southwest will eventually proceed east toward the southern Plains, but predictability is low regarding the timing of this feature. Read more

Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0130 AM CST Wed Jan 22 2025 Valid 251200Z - 301200Z ...DISCUSSION... On Saturday/D4, an upper trough will be exiting the Northeast early, with temporary zonal flow across much of the central and eastern states. The large-scale upper low by this time will be located around Hudson Bay, with a low-amplitude feature possibly rotating eastward across the Great Lakes. To the west, an upper trough and/or cut-off low will drift southward across CA and NV, as upper ridging develops north of there across southern BC and the Pacific NW. High pressure will remain over the eastern states, providing dry and stable conditions. By Sunday/D5, southerly low-level winds across TX and into the lower MS Valley will allow for at least elevated instability to develop, and this should favor general thunderstorms from eastern TX to the MS River. Given the weak instability and likelihood of substantial clouds and precipitation, severe weather seems unlikely. This glancing low-level warm/moist advection regime will remain in place into Monday/D6, with additional precipitation likely across parts of the Gulf Coast states. Relatively cool boundary-layer conditions and marginal instability should preclude any severe changes. For the Tuesday/D7 time frame and beyond, the upper trough over the Southwest will eventually proceed east toward the southern Plains, but predictability is low regarding the timing of this feature. Read more