Severe Storms

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0154 PM CST Wed Jan 22 2025 Valid 222000Z - 231200Z ...NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... The risk for thunderstorms appears negligible across the U.S. through tonight. ...20z Update... No changes were made to the valid outlook. High pressure is supporting cold and dry conditions over much of the eastern and western US. Offshore flow over the eastern seaboard and Gulf Coast will preclude thunderstorm development. See the prior outlook for additional information. ..Lyons.. 01/22/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1026 AM CST Wed Jan 22 2025/ ...Synopsis... The upper troughing currently in place across much of the CONUS is expected to persist throughout the day, reinforced by a shortwave trough forecast to move southward across the Four Corner and into NM and another shortwave trough that is expected to move southward through the northern Rockies late tonight/early tomorrow. At the surface, expansive and cold high pressure, currently centered over western PA, will gradually shift eastward, while maintain offshore flow along the East and Gulf Coasts. Cold high pressure is also in place across the western CONUS. This area of high pressure will likely strengthen throughout the period, potentially exceeding 1050 mb over eastern ID tomorrow morning. Dry and stable conditions promoted by these features will preclude thunderstorm development. Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0154 PM CST Wed Jan 22 2025 Valid 222000Z - 231200Z ...NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... The risk for thunderstorms appears negligible across the U.S. through tonight. ...20z Update... No changes were made to the valid outlook. High pressure is supporting cold and dry conditions over much of the eastern and western US. Offshore flow over the eastern seaboard and Gulf Coast will preclude thunderstorm development. See the prior outlook for additional information. ..Lyons.. 01/22/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1026 AM CST Wed Jan 22 2025/ ...Synopsis... The upper troughing currently in place across much of the CONUS is expected to persist throughout the day, reinforced by a shortwave trough forecast to move southward across the Four Corner and into NM and another shortwave trough that is expected to move southward through the northern Rockies late tonight/early tomorrow. At the surface, expansive and cold high pressure, currently centered over western PA, will gradually shift eastward, while maintain offshore flow along the East and Gulf Coasts. Cold high pressure is also in place across the western CONUS. This area of high pressure will likely strengthen throughout the period, potentially exceeding 1050 mb over eastern ID tomorrow morning. Dry and stable conditions promoted by these features will preclude thunderstorm development. Read more

SPC 1930Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0109 PM CST Wed Jan 22 2025 Valid 241200Z - 251200Z ...NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorms are not forecast for Friday. ...Synopsis... Expansive surface high pressure and cold temperatures are forecast across much of the CONUS. Continental trajectories will remain offshore, resulting in a dearth of boundary layer moisture and instability. As a result, thunderstorms are not expected through early Saturday morning. ..Leitman.. 01/22/2025 Read more

SPC 1930Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0109 PM CST Wed Jan 22 2025 Valid 241200Z - 251200Z ...NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorms are not forecast for Friday. ...Synopsis... Expansive surface high pressure and cold temperatures are forecast across much of the CONUS. Continental trajectories will remain offshore, resulting in a dearth of boundary layer moisture and instability. As a result, thunderstorms are not expected through early Saturday morning. ..Leitman.. 01/22/2025 Read more

SPC 1930Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0109 PM CST Wed Jan 22 2025 Valid 241200Z - 251200Z ...NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorms are not forecast for Friday. ...Synopsis... Expansive surface high pressure and cold temperatures are forecast across much of the CONUS. Continental trajectories will remain offshore, resulting in a dearth of boundary layer moisture and instability. As a result, thunderstorms are not expected through early Saturday morning. ..Leitman.. 01/22/2025 Read more

SPC 1930Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0109 PM CST Wed Jan 22 2025 Valid 241200Z - 251200Z ...NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorms are not forecast for Friday. ...Synopsis... Expansive surface high pressure and cold temperatures are forecast across much of the CONUS. Continental trajectories will remain offshore, resulting in a dearth of boundary layer moisture and instability. As a result, thunderstorms are not expected through early Saturday morning. ..Leitman.. 01/22/2025 Read more

SPC 1930Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0109 PM CST Wed Jan 22 2025 Valid 241200Z - 251200Z ...NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorms are not forecast for Friday. ...Synopsis... Expansive surface high pressure and cold temperatures are forecast across much of the CONUS. Continental trajectories will remain offshore, resulting in a dearth of boundary layer moisture and instability. As a result, thunderstorms are not expected through early Saturday morning. ..Leitman.. 01/22/2025 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1117 AM CST Wed Jan 22 2025 Valid 231200Z - 241200Z ...NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorms are not forecast on Thursday. ...Synopsis... An upper trough near the Four Corners will shift east toward the Lower MS Valley and western Gulf vicinity on Thursday. A swath of strong southwesterly mid/upper flow accompanying this system will overspread much of the Southeast and Mid-Atlantic vicinity. Strong, sprawling surface high pressure and cold temperatures will envelop much of the CONUS, resulting in a dry and stable boundary layer. This will preclude thunderstorm activity on Thursday. ..Leitman.. 01/22/2025 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1117 AM CST Wed Jan 22 2025 Valid 231200Z - 241200Z ...NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorms are not forecast on Thursday. ...Synopsis... An upper trough near the Four Corners will shift east toward the Lower MS Valley and western Gulf vicinity on Thursday. A swath of strong southwesterly mid/upper flow accompanying this system will overspread much of the Southeast and Mid-Atlantic vicinity. Strong, sprawling surface high pressure and cold temperatures will envelop much of the CONUS, resulting in a dry and stable boundary layer. This will preclude thunderstorm activity on Thursday. ..Leitman.. 01/22/2025 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1117 AM CST Wed Jan 22 2025 Valid 231200Z - 241200Z ...NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorms are not forecast on Thursday. ...Synopsis... An upper trough near the Four Corners will shift east toward the Lower MS Valley and western Gulf vicinity on Thursday. A swath of strong southwesterly mid/upper flow accompanying this system will overspread much of the Southeast and Mid-Atlantic vicinity. Strong, sprawling surface high pressure and cold temperatures will envelop much of the CONUS, resulting in a dry and stable boundary layer. This will preclude thunderstorm activity on Thursday. ..Leitman.. 01/22/2025 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1117 AM CST Wed Jan 22 2025 Valid 231200Z - 241200Z ...NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorms are not forecast on Thursday. ...Synopsis... An upper trough near the Four Corners will shift east toward the Lower MS Valley and western Gulf vicinity on Thursday. A swath of strong southwesterly mid/upper flow accompanying this system will overspread much of the Southeast and Mid-Atlantic vicinity. Strong, sprawling surface high pressure and cold temperatures will envelop much of the CONUS, resulting in a dry and stable boundary layer. This will preclude thunderstorm activity on Thursday. ..Leitman.. 01/22/2025 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1117 AM CST Wed Jan 22 2025 Valid 231200Z - 241200Z ...NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorms are not forecast on Thursday. ...Synopsis... An upper trough near the Four Corners will shift east toward the Lower MS Valley and western Gulf vicinity on Thursday. A swath of strong southwesterly mid/upper flow accompanying this system will overspread much of the Southeast and Mid-Atlantic vicinity. Strong, sprawling surface high pressure and cold temperatures will envelop much of the CONUS, resulting in a dry and stable boundary layer. This will preclude thunderstorm activity on Thursday. ..Leitman.. 01/22/2025 Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1058 AM CST Wed Jan 22 2025 Valid 221700Z - 231200Z ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA... The previous forecast (see below) remains on track, and only minor adjustments were made to the Critical highlights based on the latest observations and high-resolution guidance. Strong/gusty northeasterly surface winds will gradually strengthen this afternoon and persist into Day 2/Thursday, with the peak in these winds expected during the overnight/early morning hours. ..Weinman.. 01/22/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0157 AM CST Wed Jan 22 2025/ ...Synopsis... An amplifying mid-level trough will graze the West Coast today, resulting in a tightening of the surface pressure gradient across southern California, where dry offshore flow will continue to support favorable wildfire-spread conditions. By late afternoon, widespread 20+ mph sustained winds overlapping with 10-15 percent RH will be likely across much of the southern California coastline. Across terrain-favoring areas, localized instances of sustained 40 mph winds (perhaps with higher gusts) and near-single-digit RH are possible, warranting the maintenance of Critical highlights this outlook. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1058 AM CST Wed Jan 22 2025 Valid 221700Z - 231200Z ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA... The previous forecast (see below) remains on track, and only minor adjustments were made to the Critical highlights based on the latest observations and high-resolution guidance. Strong/gusty northeasterly surface winds will gradually strengthen this afternoon and persist into Day 2/Thursday, with the peak in these winds expected during the overnight/early morning hours. ..Weinman.. 01/22/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0157 AM CST Wed Jan 22 2025/ ...Synopsis... An amplifying mid-level trough will graze the West Coast today, resulting in a tightening of the surface pressure gradient across southern California, where dry offshore flow will continue to support favorable wildfire-spread conditions. By late afternoon, widespread 20+ mph sustained winds overlapping with 10-15 percent RH will be likely across much of the southern California coastline. Across terrain-favoring areas, localized instances of sustained 40 mph winds (perhaps with higher gusts) and near-single-digit RH are possible, warranting the maintenance of Critical highlights this outlook. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1058 AM CST Wed Jan 22 2025 Valid 221700Z - 231200Z ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA... The previous forecast (see below) remains on track, and only minor adjustments were made to the Critical highlights based on the latest observations and high-resolution guidance. Strong/gusty northeasterly surface winds will gradually strengthen this afternoon and persist into Day 2/Thursday, with the peak in these winds expected during the overnight/early morning hours. ..Weinman.. 01/22/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0157 AM CST Wed Jan 22 2025/ ...Synopsis... An amplifying mid-level trough will graze the West Coast today, resulting in a tightening of the surface pressure gradient across southern California, where dry offshore flow will continue to support favorable wildfire-spread conditions. By late afternoon, widespread 20+ mph sustained winds overlapping with 10-15 percent RH will be likely across much of the southern California coastline. Across terrain-favoring areas, localized instances of sustained 40 mph winds (perhaps with higher gusts) and near-single-digit RH are possible, warranting the maintenance of Critical highlights this outlook. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1058 AM CST Wed Jan 22 2025 Valid 221700Z - 231200Z ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA... The previous forecast (see below) remains on track, and only minor adjustments were made to the Critical highlights based on the latest observations and high-resolution guidance. Strong/gusty northeasterly surface winds will gradually strengthen this afternoon and persist into Day 2/Thursday, with the peak in these winds expected during the overnight/early morning hours. ..Weinman.. 01/22/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0157 AM CST Wed Jan 22 2025/ ...Synopsis... An amplifying mid-level trough will graze the West Coast today, resulting in a tightening of the surface pressure gradient across southern California, where dry offshore flow will continue to support favorable wildfire-spread conditions. By late afternoon, widespread 20+ mph sustained winds overlapping with 10-15 percent RH will be likely across much of the southern California coastline. Across terrain-favoring areas, localized instances of sustained 40 mph winds (perhaps with higher gusts) and near-single-digit RH are possible, warranting the maintenance of Critical highlights this outlook. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1058 AM CST Wed Jan 22 2025 Valid 221700Z - 231200Z ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA... The previous forecast (see below) remains on track, and only minor adjustments were made to the Critical highlights based on the latest observations and high-resolution guidance. Strong/gusty northeasterly surface winds will gradually strengthen this afternoon and persist into Day 2/Thursday, with the peak in these winds expected during the overnight/early morning hours. ..Weinman.. 01/22/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0157 AM CST Wed Jan 22 2025/ ...Synopsis... An amplifying mid-level trough will graze the West Coast today, resulting in a tightening of the surface pressure gradient across southern California, where dry offshore flow will continue to support favorable wildfire-spread conditions. By late afternoon, widespread 20+ mph sustained winds overlapping with 10-15 percent RH will be likely across much of the southern California coastline. Across terrain-favoring areas, localized instances of sustained 40 mph winds (perhaps with higher gusts) and near-single-digit RH are possible, warranting the maintenance of Critical highlights this outlook. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1026 AM CST Wed Jan 22 2025 Valid 221630Z - 231200Z ...NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... The risk for thunderstorms appears negligible across the U.S. today through tonight. ...Synopsis... The upper troughing currently in place across much of the CONUS is expected to persist throughout the day, reinforced by a shortwave trough forecast to move southward across the Four Corner and into NM and another shortwave trough that is expected to move southward through the northern Rockies late tonight/early tomorrow. At the surface, expansive and cold high pressure, currently centered over western PA, will gradually shift eastward, while maintain offshore flow along the East and Gulf Coasts. Cold high pressure is also in place across the western CONUS. This area of high pressure will likely strengthen throughout the period, potentially exceeding 1050 mb over eastern ID tomorrow morning. Dry and stable conditions promoted by these features will preclude thunderstorm development. ..Mosier.. 01/22/2025 Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1026 AM CST Wed Jan 22 2025 Valid 221630Z - 231200Z ...NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... The risk for thunderstorms appears negligible across the U.S. today through tonight. ...Synopsis... The upper troughing currently in place across much of the CONUS is expected to persist throughout the day, reinforced by a shortwave trough forecast to move southward across the Four Corner and into NM and another shortwave trough that is expected to move southward through the northern Rockies late tonight/early tomorrow. At the surface, expansive and cold high pressure, currently centered over western PA, will gradually shift eastward, while maintain offshore flow along the East and Gulf Coasts. Cold high pressure is also in place across the western CONUS. This area of high pressure will likely strengthen throughout the period, potentially exceeding 1050 mb over eastern ID tomorrow morning. Dry and stable conditions promoted by these features will preclude thunderstorm development. ..Mosier.. 01/22/2025 Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1026 AM CST Wed Jan 22 2025 Valid 221630Z - 231200Z ...NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... The risk for thunderstorms appears negligible across the U.S. today through tonight. ...Synopsis... The upper troughing currently in place across much of the CONUS is expected to persist throughout the day, reinforced by a shortwave trough forecast to move southward across the Four Corner and into NM and another shortwave trough that is expected to move southward through the northern Rockies late tonight/early tomorrow. At the surface, expansive and cold high pressure, currently centered over western PA, will gradually shift eastward, while maintain offshore flow along the East and Gulf Coasts. Cold high pressure is also in place across the western CONUS. This area of high pressure will likely strengthen throughout the period, potentially exceeding 1050 mb over eastern ID tomorrow morning. Dry and stable conditions promoted by these features will preclude thunderstorm development. ..Mosier.. 01/22/2025 Read more