Severe Storms

No watches are valid as of Thu Jan 23 22:22:02 UTC 2025.

No Mesoscale Discussions are in effect as of Thu Jan 23 22:22:02 UTC 2025.

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0350 PM CST Thu Jan 23 2025 Valid 251200Z - 311200Z On Day 3/Saturday, west-southwesterly deep-layer flow will gradually strengthen across the Southwest, southern Great Basin, and inland southern CA ahead of a midlevel trough. As a result, dry/breezy conditions will develop across the region, with locally elevated fire-weather conditions possible -- especially across portions of southern/central AZ and the inland mountains of southern CA. By Day 3/Saturday evening/night, precipitation will likely overspread much of southern CA and persist through the weekend. This should reduce fire-weather concerns through the remainder of the extended forecast period. From Day 4/Sunday through Day 6/Tuesday, locally dry/breezy conditions will be possible across the Southwest into the southern Rockies each afternoon, as the midlevel trough/low (and strong flow aloft) continues slowly east-southeastward. Similar conditions will be possible across the southern High Plains on Days 7-8/Wednesday-Thursday. This may favor periods of elevated fire-weather conditions, though mostly marginal fuels should limit the potential for critical conditions. ..Weinman.. 01/23/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0350 PM CST Thu Jan 23 2025 Valid 251200Z - 311200Z On Day 3/Saturday, west-southwesterly deep-layer flow will gradually strengthen across the Southwest, southern Great Basin, and inland southern CA ahead of a midlevel trough. As a result, dry/breezy conditions will develop across the region, with locally elevated fire-weather conditions possible -- especially across portions of southern/central AZ and the inland mountains of southern CA. By Day 3/Saturday evening/night, precipitation will likely overspread much of southern CA and persist through the weekend. This should reduce fire-weather concerns through the remainder of the extended forecast period. From Day 4/Sunday through Day 6/Tuesday, locally dry/breezy conditions will be possible across the Southwest into the southern Rockies each afternoon, as the midlevel trough/low (and strong flow aloft) continues slowly east-southeastward. Similar conditions will be possible across the southern High Plains on Days 7-8/Wednesday-Thursday. This may favor periods of elevated fire-weather conditions, though mostly marginal fuels should limit the potential for critical conditions. ..Weinman.. 01/23/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0350 PM CST Thu Jan 23 2025 Valid 251200Z - 311200Z On Day 3/Saturday, west-southwesterly deep-layer flow will gradually strengthen across the Southwest, southern Great Basin, and inland southern CA ahead of a midlevel trough. As a result, dry/breezy conditions will develop across the region, with locally elevated fire-weather conditions possible -- especially across portions of southern/central AZ and the inland mountains of southern CA. By Day 3/Saturday evening/night, precipitation will likely overspread much of southern CA and persist through the weekend. This should reduce fire-weather concerns through the remainder of the extended forecast period. From Day 4/Sunday through Day 6/Tuesday, locally dry/breezy conditions will be possible across the Southwest into the southern Rockies each afternoon, as the midlevel trough/low (and strong flow aloft) continues slowly east-southeastward. Similar conditions will be possible across the southern High Plains on Days 7-8/Wednesday-Thursday. This may favor periods of elevated fire-weather conditions, though mostly marginal fuels should limit the potential for critical conditions. ..Weinman.. 01/23/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0350 PM CST Thu Jan 23 2025 Valid 251200Z - 311200Z On Day 3/Saturday, west-southwesterly deep-layer flow will gradually strengthen across the Southwest, southern Great Basin, and inland southern CA ahead of a midlevel trough. As a result, dry/breezy conditions will develop across the region, with locally elevated fire-weather conditions possible -- especially across portions of southern/central AZ and the inland mountains of southern CA. By Day 3/Saturday evening/night, precipitation will likely overspread much of southern CA and persist through the weekend. This should reduce fire-weather concerns through the remainder of the extended forecast period. From Day 4/Sunday through Day 6/Tuesday, locally dry/breezy conditions will be possible across the Southwest into the southern Rockies each afternoon, as the midlevel trough/low (and strong flow aloft) continues slowly east-southeastward. Similar conditions will be possible across the southern High Plains on Days 7-8/Wednesday-Thursday. This may favor periods of elevated fire-weather conditions, though mostly marginal fuels should limit the potential for critical conditions. ..Weinman.. 01/23/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0350 PM CST Thu Jan 23 2025 Valid 251200Z - 311200Z On Day 3/Saturday, west-southwesterly deep-layer flow will gradually strengthen across the Southwest, southern Great Basin, and inland southern CA ahead of a midlevel trough. As a result, dry/breezy conditions will develop across the region, with locally elevated fire-weather conditions possible -- especially across portions of southern/central AZ and the inland mountains of southern CA. By Day 3/Saturday evening/night, precipitation will likely overspread much of southern CA and persist through the weekend. This should reduce fire-weather concerns through the remainder of the extended forecast period. From Day 4/Sunday through Day 6/Tuesday, locally dry/breezy conditions will be possible across the Southwest into the southern Rockies each afternoon, as the midlevel trough/low (and strong flow aloft) continues slowly east-southeastward. Similar conditions will be possible across the southern High Plains on Days 7-8/Wednesday-Thursday. This may favor periods of elevated fire-weather conditions, though mostly marginal fuels should limit the potential for critical conditions. ..Weinman.. 01/23/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0200 PM CST Thu Jan 23 2025 Valid 241200Z - 251200Z An Elevated area was added over portions of western North TX into southwest OK. Here, guidance is in good agreement, depicting 15-25 mph sustained southwesterly surface winds (with higher gusts) amid 15-20 percent RH. While fuels are somewhat marginal across much of the area, the latest fuels report suggests that they are at least modestly supportive of a large fire -- warranting the highlights. Dry/breezy conditions are also expected farther northwest into the TX Panhandle, though fuels appear less receptive here. For additional details, see the previous discussion below. ..Weinman.. 01/23/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0144 AM CST Thu Jan 23 2025/ ...Synopsis... A surface pressure gradient should be diffusing across southern California as a mid-level trough amplifies along the West Coast, encouraging surface low development with onshore flow by late tomorrow (Friday) afternoon. Since some dry offshore flow may be ongoing at the start of the period (12Z Friday) though, Elevated highlights were introduced given lingering very dry air (10-15 percent RH) and highly receptive fuels. Meanwhile, the deepening of the West Coast upper trough will also support strong surface lee troughing and associated downslope flow across the southern High Plains Friday afternoon. Guidance consensus shows RH dipping into the 10-20 percent range by afternoon peak heating, with sustained southwesterly surface winds exceeding 20 mph on a widespread basis. While such conditions would typically necessitate fire weather highlights, fuel receptiveness currently appears too marginal to support widespread, significant wildfire-spread potential. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0200 PM CST Thu Jan 23 2025 Valid 241200Z - 251200Z An Elevated area was added over portions of western North TX into southwest OK. Here, guidance is in good agreement, depicting 15-25 mph sustained southwesterly surface winds (with higher gusts) amid 15-20 percent RH. While fuels are somewhat marginal across much of the area, the latest fuels report suggests that they are at least modestly supportive of a large fire -- warranting the highlights. Dry/breezy conditions are also expected farther northwest into the TX Panhandle, though fuels appear less receptive here. For additional details, see the previous discussion below. ..Weinman.. 01/23/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0144 AM CST Thu Jan 23 2025/ ...Synopsis... A surface pressure gradient should be diffusing across southern California as a mid-level trough amplifies along the West Coast, encouraging surface low development with onshore flow by late tomorrow (Friday) afternoon. Since some dry offshore flow may be ongoing at the start of the period (12Z Friday) though, Elevated highlights were introduced given lingering very dry air (10-15 percent RH) and highly receptive fuels. Meanwhile, the deepening of the West Coast upper trough will also support strong surface lee troughing and associated downslope flow across the southern High Plains Friday afternoon. Guidance consensus shows RH dipping into the 10-20 percent range by afternoon peak heating, with sustained southwesterly surface winds exceeding 20 mph on a widespread basis. While such conditions would typically necessitate fire weather highlights, fuel receptiveness currently appears too marginal to support widespread, significant wildfire-spread potential. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0200 PM CST Thu Jan 23 2025 Valid 241200Z - 251200Z An Elevated area was added over portions of western North TX into southwest OK. Here, guidance is in good agreement, depicting 15-25 mph sustained southwesterly surface winds (with higher gusts) amid 15-20 percent RH. While fuels are somewhat marginal across much of the area, the latest fuels report suggests that they are at least modestly supportive of a large fire -- warranting the highlights. Dry/breezy conditions are also expected farther northwest into the TX Panhandle, though fuels appear less receptive here. For additional details, see the previous discussion below. ..Weinman.. 01/23/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0144 AM CST Thu Jan 23 2025/ ...Synopsis... A surface pressure gradient should be diffusing across southern California as a mid-level trough amplifies along the West Coast, encouraging surface low development with onshore flow by late tomorrow (Friday) afternoon. Since some dry offshore flow may be ongoing at the start of the period (12Z Friday) though, Elevated highlights were introduced given lingering very dry air (10-15 percent RH) and highly receptive fuels. Meanwhile, the deepening of the West Coast upper trough will also support strong surface lee troughing and associated downslope flow across the southern High Plains Friday afternoon. Guidance consensus shows RH dipping into the 10-20 percent range by afternoon peak heating, with sustained southwesterly surface winds exceeding 20 mph on a widespread basis. While such conditions would typically necessitate fire weather highlights, fuel receptiveness currently appears too marginal to support widespread, significant wildfire-spread potential. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0200 PM CST Thu Jan 23 2025 Valid 241200Z - 251200Z An Elevated area was added over portions of western North TX into southwest OK. Here, guidance is in good agreement, depicting 15-25 mph sustained southwesterly surface winds (with higher gusts) amid 15-20 percent RH. While fuels are somewhat marginal across much of the area, the latest fuels report suggests that they are at least modestly supportive of a large fire -- warranting the highlights. Dry/breezy conditions are also expected farther northwest into the TX Panhandle, though fuels appear less receptive here. For additional details, see the previous discussion below. ..Weinman.. 01/23/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0144 AM CST Thu Jan 23 2025/ ...Synopsis... A surface pressure gradient should be diffusing across southern California as a mid-level trough amplifies along the West Coast, encouraging surface low development with onshore flow by late tomorrow (Friday) afternoon. Since some dry offshore flow may be ongoing at the start of the period (12Z Friday) though, Elevated highlights were introduced given lingering very dry air (10-15 percent RH) and highly receptive fuels. Meanwhile, the deepening of the West Coast upper trough will also support strong surface lee troughing and associated downslope flow across the southern High Plains Friday afternoon. Guidance consensus shows RH dipping into the 10-20 percent range by afternoon peak heating, with sustained southwesterly surface winds exceeding 20 mph on a widespread basis. While such conditions would typically necessitate fire weather highlights, fuel receptiveness currently appears too marginal to support widespread, significant wildfire-spread potential. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0200 PM CST Thu Jan 23 2025 Valid 241200Z - 251200Z An Elevated area was added over portions of western North TX into southwest OK. Here, guidance is in good agreement, depicting 15-25 mph sustained southwesterly surface winds (with higher gusts) amid 15-20 percent RH. While fuels are somewhat marginal across much of the area, the latest fuels report suggests that they are at least modestly supportive of a large fire -- warranting the highlights. Dry/breezy conditions are also expected farther northwest into the TX Panhandle, though fuels appear less receptive here. For additional details, see the previous discussion below. ..Weinman.. 01/23/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0144 AM CST Thu Jan 23 2025/ ...Synopsis... A surface pressure gradient should be diffusing across southern California as a mid-level trough amplifies along the West Coast, encouraging surface low development with onshore flow by late tomorrow (Friday) afternoon. Since some dry offshore flow may be ongoing at the start of the period (12Z Friday) though, Elevated highlights were introduced given lingering very dry air (10-15 percent RH) and highly receptive fuels. Meanwhile, the deepening of the West Coast upper trough will also support strong surface lee troughing and associated downslope flow across the southern High Plains Friday afternoon. Guidance consensus shows RH dipping into the 10-20 percent range by afternoon peak heating, with sustained southwesterly surface winds exceeding 20 mph on a widespread basis. While such conditions would typically necessitate fire weather highlights, fuel receptiveness currently appears too marginal to support widespread, significant wildfire-spread potential. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0200 PM CST Thu Jan 23 2025 Valid 241200Z - 251200Z An Elevated area was added over portions of western North TX into southwest OK. Here, guidance is in good agreement, depicting 15-25 mph sustained southwesterly surface winds (with higher gusts) amid 15-20 percent RH. While fuels are somewhat marginal across much of the area, the latest fuels report suggests that they are at least modestly supportive of a large fire -- warranting the highlights. Dry/breezy conditions are also expected farther northwest into the TX Panhandle, though fuels appear less receptive here. For additional details, see the previous discussion below. ..Weinman.. 01/23/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0144 AM CST Thu Jan 23 2025/ ...Synopsis... A surface pressure gradient should be diffusing across southern California as a mid-level trough amplifies along the West Coast, encouraging surface low development with onshore flow by late tomorrow (Friday) afternoon. Since some dry offshore flow may be ongoing at the start of the period (12Z Friday) though, Elevated highlights were introduced given lingering very dry air (10-15 percent RH) and highly receptive fuels. Meanwhile, the deepening of the West Coast upper trough will also support strong surface lee troughing and associated downslope flow across the southern High Plains Friday afternoon. Guidance consensus shows RH dipping into the 10-20 percent range by afternoon peak heating, with sustained southwesterly surface winds exceeding 20 mph on a widespread basis. While such conditions would typically necessitate fire weather highlights, fuel receptiveness currently appears too marginal to support widespread, significant wildfire-spread potential. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0148 PM CST Thu Jan 23 2025 Valid 232000Z - 241200Z ...NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorms are not forecast across the continental U.S. through the remainder of today or into tonight. ...20z Update... No changes were made to the prior outlook. Broad high pressure over the central US will continue to favor cool, dry and stable conditions behind a cold front. This will negate thunderstorm potential. See the prior outlook for more info. ..Lyons.. 01/23/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1013 AM CST Thu Jan 23 2025/ ...Synopsis... A shortwave trough currently moving through NM is forecast to continue east-southeastward across the southern Plains today, helping to induce an eastward shift in the mean upper troughing across the central and eastern CONUS. As it does, another surge of cold and dry continental air is anticipated across the Plains and MS Valley, with associated high surface pressure contributing to continued offshore flow. High surface pressure will remain over the western CONUS as well. Resulting dearth of low-level moisture will preclude thunderstorm development. Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0148 PM CST Thu Jan 23 2025 Valid 232000Z - 241200Z ...NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorms are not forecast across the continental U.S. through the remainder of today or into tonight. ...20z Update... No changes were made to the prior outlook. Broad high pressure over the central US will continue to favor cool, dry and stable conditions behind a cold front. This will negate thunderstorm potential. See the prior outlook for more info. ..Lyons.. 01/23/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1013 AM CST Thu Jan 23 2025/ ...Synopsis... A shortwave trough currently moving through NM is forecast to continue east-southeastward across the southern Plains today, helping to induce an eastward shift in the mean upper troughing across the central and eastern CONUS. As it does, another surge of cold and dry continental air is anticipated across the Plains and MS Valley, with associated high surface pressure contributing to continued offshore flow. High surface pressure will remain over the western CONUS as well. Resulting dearth of low-level moisture will preclude thunderstorm development. Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0148 PM CST Thu Jan 23 2025 Valid 232000Z - 241200Z ...NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorms are not forecast across the continental U.S. through the remainder of today or into tonight. ...20z Update... No changes were made to the prior outlook. Broad high pressure over the central US will continue to favor cool, dry and stable conditions behind a cold front. This will negate thunderstorm potential. See the prior outlook for more info. ..Lyons.. 01/23/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1013 AM CST Thu Jan 23 2025/ ...Synopsis... A shortwave trough currently moving through NM is forecast to continue east-southeastward across the southern Plains today, helping to induce an eastward shift in the mean upper troughing across the central and eastern CONUS. As it does, another surge of cold and dry continental air is anticipated across the Plains and MS Valley, with associated high surface pressure contributing to continued offshore flow. High surface pressure will remain over the western CONUS as well. Resulting dearth of low-level moisture will preclude thunderstorm development. Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0148 PM CST Thu Jan 23 2025 Valid 232000Z - 241200Z ...NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorms are not forecast across the continental U.S. through the remainder of today or into tonight. ...20z Update... No changes were made to the prior outlook. Broad high pressure over the central US will continue to favor cool, dry and stable conditions behind a cold front. This will negate thunderstorm potential. See the prior outlook for more info. ..Lyons.. 01/23/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1013 AM CST Thu Jan 23 2025/ ...Synopsis... A shortwave trough currently moving through NM is forecast to continue east-southeastward across the southern Plains today, helping to induce an eastward shift in the mean upper troughing across the central and eastern CONUS. As it does, another surge of cold and dry continental air is anticipated across the Plains and MS Valley, with associated high surface pressure contributing to continued offshore flow. High surface pressure will remain over the western CONUS as well. Resulting dearth of low-level moisture will preclude thunderstorm development. Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0148 PM CST Thu Jan 23 2025 Valid 232000Z - 241200Z ...NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorms are not forecast across the continental U.S. through the remainder of today or into tonight. ...20z Update... No changes were made to the prior outlook. Broad high pressure over the central US will continue to favor cool, dry and stable conditions behind a cold front. This will negate thunderstorm potential. See the prior outlook for more info. ..Lyons.. 01/23/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1013 AM CST Thu Jan 23 2025/ ...Synopsis... A shortwave trough currently moving through NM is forecast to continue east-southeastward across the southern Plains today, helping to induce an eastward shift in the mean upper troughing across the central and eastern CONUS. As it does, another surge of cold and dry continental air is anticipated across the Plains and MS Valley, with associated high surface pressure contributing to continued offshore flow. High surface pressure will remain over the western CONUS as well. Resulting dearth of low-level moisture will preclude thunderstorm development. Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0148 PM CST Thu Jan 23 2025 Valid 232000Z - 241200Z ...NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorms are not forecast across the continental U.S. through the remainder of today or into tonight. ...20z Update... No changes were made to the prior outlook. Broad high pressure over the central US will continue to favor cool, dry and stable conditions behind a cold front. This will negate thunderstorm potential. See the prior outlook for more info. ..Lyons.. 01/23/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1013 AM CST Thu Jan 23 2025/ ...Synopsis... A shortwave trough currently moving through NM is forecast to continue east-southeastward across the southern Plains today, helping to induce an eastward shift in the mean upper troughing across the central and eastern CONUS. As it does, another surge of cold and dry continental air is anticipated across the Plains and MS Valley, with associated high surface pressure contributing to continued offshore flow. High surface pressure will remain over the western CONUS as well. Resulting dearth of low-level moisture will preclude thunderstorm development. Read more

SPC 1930Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0112 PM CST Thu Jan 23 2025 Valid 251200Z - 261200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe storms are not forecast for Saturday. ...Synopsis... Upper ridging will build over the southern/central Rockies and adjacent Plains as an upper trough continues to deepen across the Pacific Coast vicinity. As this occurs, a surface low will move across northern Mexico. Resulting south/southeasterly low-level flow across the western Gulf will transport moisture northward across portions of southern and southeastern TX. Within this warm advection regime, weak elevated instability is expected to develop due to cool temperatures aloft and steepening midlevel lapse rates. This should be sufficient for isolated thunderstorms Saturday night/early Sunday across southeast TX and portions of the Middle and Upper TX Coasts. Severe thunderstorm potential appears low at this time given a lack of surface-based instability. ..Leitman.. 01/23/2025 Read more