Severe Storms

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1013 AM CST Thu Jan 23 2025 Valid 231630Z - 241200Z ...NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorms are not forecast across the continental U.S. today or tonight. ...Synopsis... A shortwave trough currently moving through NM is forecast to continue east-southeastward across the southern Plains today, helping to induce an eastward shift in the mean upper troughing across the central and eastern CONUS. As it does, another surge of cold and dry continental air is anticipated across the Plains and MS Valley, with associated high surface pressure contributing to continued offshore flow. High surface pressure will remain over the western CONUS as well. Resulting dearth of low-level moisture will preclude thunderstorm development. ..Mosier/Dean.. 01/23/2025 Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1013 AM CST Thu Jan 23 2025 Valid 231630Z - 241200Z ...NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorms are not forecast across the continental U.S. today or tonight. ...Synopsis... A shortwave trough currently moving through NM is forecast to continue east-southeastward across the southern Plains today, helping to induce an eastward shift in the mean upper troughing across the central and eastern CONUS. As it does, another surge of cold and dry continental air is anticipated across the Plains and MS Valley, with associated high surface pressure contributing to continued offshore flow. High surface pressure will remain over the western CONUS as well. Resulting dearth of low-level moisture will preclude thunderstorm development. ..Mosier/Dean.. 01/23/2025 Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1013 AM CST Thu Jan 23 2025 Valid 231630Z - 241200Z ...NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorms are not forecast across the continental U.S. today or tonight. ...Synopsis... A shortwave trough currently moving through NM is forecast to continue east-southeastward across the southern Plains today, helping to induce an eastward shift in the mean upper troughing across the central and eastern CONUS. As it does, another surge of cold and dry continental air is anticipated across the Plains and MS Valley, with associated high surface pressure contributing to continued offshore flow. High surface pressure will remain over the western CONUS as well. Resulting dearth of low-level moisture will preclude thunderstorm development. ..Mosier/Dean.. 01/23/2025 Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1013 AM CST Thu Jan 23 2025 Valid 231630Z - 241200Z ...NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorms are not forecast across the continental U.S. today or tonight. ...Synopsis... A shortwave trough currently moving through NM is forecast to continue east-southeastward across the southern Plains today, helping to induce an eastward shift in the mean upper troughing across the central and eastern CONUS. As it does, another surge of cold and dry continental air is anticipated across the Plains and MS Valley, with associated high surface pressure contributing to continued offshore flow. High surface pressure will remain over the western CONUS as well. Resulting dearth of low-level moisture will preclude thunderstorm development. ..Mosier/Dean.. 01/23/2025 Read more

SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0552 AM CST Thu Jan 23 2025 Valid 231300Z - 241200Z ...NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorms are not forecast across the continental U.S. today or tonight. ..Hart.. 01/23/2025 Read more

SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0552 AM CST Thu Jan 23 2025 Valid 231300Z - 241200Z ...NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorms are not forecast across the continental U.S. today or tonight. ..Hart.. 01/23/2025 Read more

SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0552 AM CST Thu Jan 23 2025 Valid 231300Z - 241200Z ...NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorms are not forecast across the continental U.S. today or tonight. ..Hart.. 01/23/2025 Read more

SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0552 AM CST Thu Jan 23 2025 Valid 231300Z - 241200Z ...NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorms are not forecast across the continental U.S. today or tonight. ..Hart.. 01/23/2025 Read more

Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0217 AM CST Thu Jan 23 2025 Valid 261200Z - 311200Z ...DISCUSSION... A large upper trough will remain over eastern Canada for much of the Day 4-8 period, with the southern extent of the colder air aloft affecting the area from the Great Lakes into the Northeast. Detached from this feature will be a lower-latitude upper low which is forecast to drop south across CA on Sunday/D4, and pivot east into AZ through Monday/D5. For the following days through Thursday/D8, this low will gradually shift east toward the southern Plains. However, predictability is low for such a slow-moving feature cut off from the primary storm track to the north. Given this pattern, little in the way of a focus will be present for any severe weather potential until perhaps very late in the period, Thursday/D8 or beyond. Prior to the southwest-US upper low moving into the Plains, a general east-west oriented boundary will exist along the Gulf Coast states, with modest low-level warm advection resulting in scattered showers and thunderstorms, primarily over parts of Texas. Read more

Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0217 AM CST Thu Jan 23 2025 Valid 261200Z - 311200Z ...DISCUSSION... A large upper trough will remain over eastern Canada for much of the Day 4-8 period, with the southern extent of the colder air aloft affecting the area from the Great Lakes into the Northeast. Detached from this feature will be a lower-latitude upper low which is forecast to drop south across CA on Sunday/D4, and pivot east into AZ through Monday/D5. For the following days through Thursday/D8, this low will gradually shift east toward the southern Plains. However, predictability is low for such a slow-moving feature cut off from the primary storm track to the north. Given this pattern, little in the way of a focus will be present for any severe weather potential until perhaps very late in the period, Thursday/D8 or beyond. Prior to the southwest-US upper low moving into the Plains, a general east-west oriented boundary will exist along the Gulf Coast states, with modest low-level warm advection resulting in scattered showers and thunderstorms, primarily over parts of Texas. Read more

Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0217 AM CST Thu Jan 23 2025 Valid 261200Z - 311200Z ...DISCUSSION... A large upper trough will remain over eastern Canada for much of the Day 4-8 period, with the southern extent of the colder air aloft affecting the area from the Great Lakes into the Northeast. Detached from this feature will be a lower-latitude upper low which is forecast to drop south across CA on Sunday/D4, and pivot east into AZ through Monday/D5. For the following days through Thursday/D8, this low will gradually shift east toward the southern Plains. However, predictability is low for such a slow-moving feature cut off from the primary storm track to the north. Given this pattern, little in the way of a focus will be present for any severe weather potential until perhaps very late in the period, Thursday/D8 or beyond. Prior to the southwest-US upper low moving into the Plains, a general east-west oriented boundary will exist along the Gulf Coast states, with modest low-level warm advection resulting in scattered showers and thunderstorms, primarily over parts of Texas. Read more

Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0217 AM CST Thu Jan 23 2025 Valid 261200Z - 311200Z ...DISCUSSION... A large upper trough will remain over eastern Canada for much of the Day 4-8 period, with the southern extent of the colder air aloft affecting the area from the Great Lakes into the Northeast. Detached from this feature will be a lower-latitude upper low which is forecast to drop south across CA on Sunday/D4, and pivot east into AZ through Monday/D5. For the following days through Thursday/D8, this low will gradually shift east toward the southern Plains. However, predictability is low for such a slow-moving feature cut off from the primary storm track to the north. Given this pattern, little in the way of a focus will be present for any severe weather potential until perhaps very late in the period, Thursday/D8 or beyond. Prior to the southwest-US upper low moving into the Plains, a general east-west oriented boundary will exist along the Gulf Coast states, with modest low-level warm advection resulting in scattered showers and thunderstorms, primarily over parts of Texas. Read more

Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0217 AM CST Thu Jan 23 2025 Valid 261200Z - 311200Z ...DISCUSSION... A large upper trough will remain over eastern Canada for much of the Day 4-8 period, with the southern extent of the colder air aloft affecting the area from the Great Lakes into the Northeast. Detached from this feature will be a lower-latitude upper low which is forecast to drop south across CA on Sunday/D4, and pivot east into AZ through Monday/D5. For the following days through Thursday/D8, this low will gradually shift east toward the southern Plains. However, predictability is low for such a slow-moving feature cut off from the primary storm track to the north. Given this pattern, little in the way of a focus will be present for any severe weather potential until perhaps very late in the period, Thursday/D8 or beyond. Prior to the southwest-US upper low moving into the Plains, a general east-west oriented boundary will exist along the Gulf Coast states, with modest low-level warm advection resulting in scattered showers and thunderstorms, primarily over parts of Texas. Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0144 AM CST Thu Jan 23 2025 Valid 241200Z - 251200Z ...Synopsis... A surface pressure gradient should be diffusing across southern California as a mid-level trough amplifies along the West Coast, encouraging surface low development with onshore flow by late tomorrow (Friday) afternoon. Since some dry offshore flow may be ongoing at the start of the period (12Z Friday) though, Elevated highlights were introduced given lingering very dry air (10-15 percent RH) and highly receptive fuels. Meanwhile, the deepening of the West Coast upper trough will also support strong surface lee troughing and associated downslope flow across the southern High Plains Friday afternoon. Guidance consensus shows RH dipping into the 10-20 percent range by afternoon peak heating, with sustained southwesterly surface winds exceeding 20 mph on a widespread basis. While such conditions would typically necessitate fire weather highlights, fuel receptiveness currently appears too marginal to support widespread, significant wildfire-spread potential. ..Squitieri.. 01/23/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0144 AM CST Thu Jan 23 2025 Valid 241200Z - 251200Z ...Synopsis... A surface pressure gradient should be diffusing across southern California as a mid-level trough amplifies along the West Coast, encouraging surface low development with onshore flow by late tomorrow (Friday) afternoon. Since some dry offshore flow may be ongoing at the start of the period (12Z Friday) though, Elevated highlights were introduced given lingering very dry air (10-15 percent RH) and highly receptive fuels. Meanwhile, the deepening of the West Coast upper trough will also support strong surface lee troughing and associated downslope flow across the southern High Plains Friday afternoon. Guidance consensus shows RH dipping into the 10-20 percent range by afternoon peak heating, with sustained southwesterly surface winds exceeding 20 mph on a widespread basis. While such conditions would typically necessitate fire weather highlights, fuel receptiveness currently appears too marginal to support widespread, significant wildfire-spread potential. ..Squitieri.. 01/23/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0144 AM CST Thu Jan 23 2025 Valid 241200Z - 251200Z ...Synopsis... A surface pressure gradient should be diffusing across southern California as a mid-level trough amplifies along the West Coast, encouraging surface low development with onshore flow by late tomorrow (Friday) afternoon. Since some dry offshore flow may be ongoing at the start of the period (12Z Friday) though, Elevated highlights were introduced given lingering very dry air (10-15 percent RH) and highly receptive fuels. Meanwhile, the deepening of the West Coast upper trough will also support strong surface lee troughing and associated downslope flow across the southern High Plains Friday afternoon. Guidance consensus shows RH dipping into the 10-20 percent range by afternoon peak heating, with sustained southwesterly surface winds exceeding 20 mph on a widespread basis. While such conditions would typically necessitate fire weather highlights, fuel receptiveness currently appears too marginal to support widespread, significant wildfire-spread potential. ..Squitieri.. 01/23/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0144 AM CST Thu Jan 23 2025 Valid 241200Z - 251200Z ...Synopsis... A surface pressure gradient should be diffusing across southern California as a mid-level trough amplifies along the West Coast, encouraging surface low development with onshore flow by late tomorrow (Friday) afternoon. Since some dry offshore flow may be ongoing at the start of the period (12Z Friday) though, Elevated highlights were introduced given lingering very dry air (10-15 percent RH) and highly receptive fuels. Meanwhile, the deepening of the West Coast upper trough will also support strong surface lee troughing and associated downslope flow across the southern High Plains Friday afternoon. Guidance consensus shows RH dipping into the 10-20 percent range by afternoon peak heating, with sustained southwesterly surface winds exceeding 20 mph on a widespread basis. While such conditions would typically necessitate fire weather highlights, fuel receptiveness currently appears too marginal to support widespread, significant wildfire-spread potential. ..Squitieri.. 01/23/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0144 AM CST Thu Jan 23 2025 Valid 241200Z - 251200Z ...Synopsis... A surface pressure gradient should be diffusing across southern California as a mid-level trough amplifies along the West Coast, encouraging surface low development with onshore flow by late tomorrow (Friday) afternoon. Since some dry offshore flow may be ongoing at the start of the period (12Z Friday) though, Elevated highlights were introduced given lingering very dry air (10-15 percent RH) and highly receptive fuels. Meanwhile, the deepening of the West Coast upper trough will also support strong surface lee troughing and associated downslope flow across the southern High Plains Friday afternoon. Guidance consensus shows RH dipping into the 10-20 percent range by afternoon peak heating, with sustained southwesterly surface winds exceeding 20 mph on a widespread basis. While such conditions would typically necessitate fire weather highlights, fuel receptiveness currently appears too marginal to support widespread, significant wildfire-spread potential. ..Squitieri.. 01/23/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0143 AM CST Thu Jan 23 2025 Valid 231200Z - 241200Z ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA... ...Synopsis... A mid-level trough will eject into the southern Plains today, with a strong surface pressure gradient persisting over southern California for the first half of the period before gradually relaxing. From the start of the period into at least mid-afternoon, strong and dry offshore flow will continue to support dangerous, rapid wildfire-spread potential. Sustained wind speeds well exceeding 20 mph amid 10 percent RH should be common around the Los Angeles metropolitan area southeast to the Laguna Mountain range. However, terrain-favoring areas (especially at higher elevations) may see winds sustain over 50 mph for at least brief periods of time, perhaps with gusts reaching 70 mph, as RH drops to single-digits. Given very dry fuels, at least localized and brief Extremely Critical conditions should be expected, with high-end Critical conditions more likely on a widespread basis. ..Squitieri.. 01/23/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0143 AM CST Thu Jan 23 2025 Valid 231200Z - 241200Z ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA... ...Synopsis... A mid-level trough will eject into the southern Plains today, with a strong surface pressure gradient persisting over southern California for the first half of the period before gradually relaxing. From the start of the period into at least mid-afternoon, strong and dry offshore flow will continue to support dangerous, rapid wildfire-spread potential. Sustained wind speeds well exceeding 20 mph amid 10 percent RH should be common around the Los Angeles metropolitan area southeast to the Laguna Mountain range. However, terrain-favoring areas (especially at higher elevations) may see winds sustain over 50 mph for at least brief periods of time, perhaps with gusts reaching 70 mph, as RH drops to single-digits. Given very dry fuels, at least localized and brief Extremely Critical conditions should be expected, with high-end Critical conditions more likely on a widespread basis. ..Squitieri.. 01/23/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more