Severe Storms

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1134 PM CST Fri Jan 24 2025 Valid 251200Z - 261200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Isolated thunderstorms may develop across central interior valleys of California this evening. Isolated/scattered thunderstorms will also be possible in parts of central and east Texas, into northwest Louisiana during the latter half of the period. ...California... Very cold mid-level temperatures will spread into central CA as a 500mb closed low evolves later this evening across the Sacramento Valley. As profiles cool/steepen, weak buoyancy is forecast to develop, despite the marginal boundary-layer moisture expected. Forecast soundings for CCL between 00z-04z exhibit around 150 J/kg MUCAPE, if lifting a near-surface based parcel. While cloud tops will be relatively shallow, very cold temperatures suggest some risk for lightning discharge with the most robust updrafts. Even so, this activity should remain rather isolated. ...Texas/Louisiana... Broadly anticyclonic flow is currently noted across northern/central Mexico late this evening. Latest model guidance does not suggest any meaningful disturbance is embedded within this flow, and current water-vapor imagery supports this. With neutral-weak mid-level height rises expected across TX/lower MS Valley, it appears low-level warm advection will be the primary mechanism for potential convection during the latter half of the period. LLJ is forecast to increase markedly across deep south TX by 18z with a focus into northwest LA after 06z. Modified Gulf moisture is forecast to advance north into this region, and forecast soundings suggest adequate buoyancy for thunderstorms if lifting parcels near 850mb. Elevated updrafts should remain too weak to warrant a severe hail risk. ..Darrow/Moore.. 01/25/2025 Read more

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1134 PM CST Fri Jan 24 2025 Valid 251200Z - 261200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Isolated thunderstorms may develop across central interior valleys of California this evening. Isolated/scattered thunderstorms will also be possible in parts of central and east Texas, into northwest Louisiana during the latter half of the period. ...California... Very cold mid-level temperatures will spread into central CA as a 500mb closed low evolves later this evening across the Sacramento Valley. As profiles cool/steepen, weak buoyancy is forecast to develop, despite the marginal boundary-layer moisture expected. Forecast soundings for CCL between 00z-04z exhibit around 150 J/kg MUCAPE, if lifting a near-surface based parcel. While cloud tops will be relatively shallow, very cold temperatures suggest some risk for lightning discharge with the most robust updrafts. Even so, this activity should remain rather isolated. ...Texas/Louisiana... Broadly anticyclonic flow is currently noted across northern/central Mexico late this evening. Latest model guidance does not suggest any meaningful disturbance is embedded within this flow, and current water-vapor imagery supports this. With neutral-weak mid-level height rises expected across TX/lower MS Valley, it appears low-level warm advection will be the primary mechanism for potential convection during the latter half of the period. LLJ is forecast to increase markedly across deep south TX by 18z with a focus into northwest LA after 06z. Modified Gulf moisture is forecast to advance north into this region, and forecast soundings suggest adequate buoyancy for thunderstorms if lifting parcels near 850mb. Elevated updrafts should remain too weak to warrant a severe hail risk. ..Darrow/Moore.. 01/25/2025 Read more

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1134 PM CST Fri Jan 24 2025 Valid 251200Z - 261200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Isolated thunderstorms may develop across central interior valleys of California this evening. Isolated/scattered thunderstorms will also be possible in parts of central and east Texas, into northwest Louisiana during the latter half of the period. ...California... Very cold mid-level temperatures will spread into central CA as a 500mb closed low evolves later this evening across the Sacramento Valley. As profiles cool/steepen, weak buoyancy is forecast to develop, despite the marginal boundary-layer moisture expected. Forecast soundings for CCL between 00z-04z exhibit around 150 J/kg MUCAPE, if lifting a near-surface based parcel. While cloud tops will be relatively shallow, very cold temperatures suggest some risk for lightning discharge with the most robust updrafts. Even so, this activity should remain rather isolated. ...Texas/Louisiana... Broadly anticyclonic flow is currently noted across northern/central Mexico late this evening. Latest model guidance does not suggest any meaningful disturbance is embedded within this flow, and current water-vapor imagery supports this. With neutral-weak mid-level height rises expected across TX/lower MS Valley, it appears low-level warm advection will be the primary mechanism for potential convection during the latter half of the period. LLJ is forecast to increase markedly across deep south TX by 18z with a focus into northwest LA after 06z. Modified Gulf moisture is forecast to advance north into this region, and forecast soundings suggest adequate buoyancy for thunderstorms if lifting parcels near 850mb. Elevated updrafts should remain too weak to warrant a severe hail risk. ..Darrow/Moore.. 01/25/2025 Read more

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1134 PM CST Fri Jan 24 2025 Valid 251200Z - 261200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Isolated thunderstorms may develop across central interior valleys of California this evening. Isolated/scattered thunderstorms will also be possible in parts of central and east Texas, into northwest Louisiana during the latter half of the period. ...California... Very cold mid-level temperatures will spread into central CA as a 500mb closed low evolves later this evening across the Sacramento Valley. As profiles cool/steepen, weak buoyancy is forecast to develop, despite the marginal boundary-layer moisture expected. Forecast soundings for CCL between 00z-04z exhibit around 150 J/kg MUCAPE, if lifting a near-surface based parcel. While cloud tops will be relatively shallow, very cold temperatures suggest some risk for lightning discharge with the most robust updrafts. Even so, this activity should remain rather isolated. ...Texas/Louisiana... Broadly anticyclonic flow is currently noted across northern/central Mexico late this evening. Latest model guidance does not suggest any meaningful disturbance is embedded within this flow, and current water-vapor imagery supports this. With neutral-weak mid-level height rises expected across TX/lower MS Valley, it appears low-level warm advection will be the primary mechanism for potential convection during the latter half of the period. LLJ is forecast to increase markedly across deep south TX by 18z with a focus into northwest LA after 06z. Modified Gulf moisture is forecast to advance north into this region, and forecast soundings suggest adequate buoyancy for thunderstorms if lifting parcels near 850mb. Elevated updrafts should remain too weak to warrant a severe hail risk. ..Darrow/Moore.. 01/25/2025 Read more

SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0628 PM CST Fri Jan 24 2025 Valid 250100Z - 251200Z ...NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorms are not forecast across the contiguous United States. ...01z Update... Offshore flow, due to the presence of a dominant surface high, has shunted meaningful moisture/buoyancy well south/east of the CONUS. Thunderstorms are not forecast tonight. ..Darrow.. 01/25/2025 Read more

SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0628 PM CST Fri Jan 24 2025 Valid 250100Z - 251200Z ...NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorms are not forecast across the contiguous United States. ...01z Update... Offshore flow, due to the presence of a dominant surface high, has shunted meaningful moisture/buoyancy well south/east of the CONUS. Thunderstorms are not forecast tonight. ..Darrow.. 01/25/2025 Read more

SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0628 PM CST Fri Jan 24 2025 Valid 250100Z - 251200Z ...NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorms are not forecast across the contiguous United States. ...01z Update... Offshore flow, due to the presence of a dominant surface high, has shunted meaningful moisture/buoyancy well south/east of the CONUS. Thunderstorms are not forecast tonight. ..Darrow.. 01/25/2025 Read more

SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0628 PM CST Fri Jan 24 2025 Valid 250100Z - 251200Z ...NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorms are not forecast across the contiguous United States. ...01z Update... Offshore flow, due to the presence of a dominant surface high, has shunted meaningful moisture/buoyancy well south/east of the CONUS. Thunderstorms are not forecast tonight. ..Darrow.. 01/25/2025 Read more

No watches are valid as of Fri Jan 24 22:11:02 UTC 2025.

No Mesoscale Discussions are in effect as of Fri Jan 24 22:11:02 UTC 2025.

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0322 PM CST Fri Jan 24 2025 Valid 261200Z - 011200Z The long-wave pattern will be characterized by a cut-off low lingering across the western US, with periods of windy and dry conditions before potential for precipitation increases early next week. Late in the period, this system will eject into the Plains, bringing potential for windy/dry conditions across portions of the High Plains an Southern Plains. This may favor periods of elevated fire-weather conditions, though mostly marginal fuels should limit the potential for critical conditions. ...D3/Northern Arizona... Enhanced upper-level flow will remain across northern Arizona on Sunday, with potential for strong southwesterly surface winds to continue across the Mogollon Rim. Overlap of afternoon relative humidity reductions to 15-20 percent with sustained southwesterly winds at 10-15 mph will be possible. Moisture will slowly increase D3/Sunday into D4/Monday across the region, with some increase in relative humidity across the western Mogollon Rim southward. This leads to uncertainty that relative humidity reductions will be widespread enough to warrant Critical highlights. ..Thornton.. 01/24/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0322 PM CST Fri Jan 24 2025 Valid 261200Z - 011200Z The long-wave pattern will be characterized by a cut-off low lingering across the western US, with periods of windy and dry conditions before potential for precipitation increases early next week. Late in the period, this system will eject into the Plains, bringing potential for windy/dry conditions across portions of the High Plains an Southern Plains. This may favor periods of elevated fire-weather conditions, though mostly marginal fuels should limit the potential for critical conditions. ...D3/Northern Arizona... Enhanced upper-level flow will remain across northern Arizona on Sunday, with potential for strong southwesterly surface winds to continue across the Mogollon Rim. Overlap of afternoon relative humidity reductions to 15-20 percent with sustained southwesterly winds at 10-15 mph will be possible. Moisture will slowly increase D3/Sunday into D4/Monday across the region, with some increase in relative humidity across the western Mogollon Rim southward. This leads to uncertainty that relative humidity reductions will be widespread enough to warrant Critical highlights. ..Thornton.. 01/24/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0322 PM CST Fri Jan 24 2025 Valid 261200Z - 011200Z The long-wave pattern will be characterized by a cut-off low lingering across the western US, with periods of windy and dry conditions before potential for precipitation increases early next week. Late in the period, this system will eject into the Plains, bringing potential for windy/dry conditions across portions of the High Plains an Southern Plains. This may favor periods of elevated fire-weather conditions, though mostly marginal fuels should limit the potential for critical conditions. ...D3/Northern Arizona... Enhanced upper-level flow will remain across northern Arizona on Sunday, with potential for strong southwesterly surface winds to continue across the Mogollon Rim. Overlap of afternoon relative humidity reductions to 15-20 percent with sustained southwesterly winds at 10-15 mph will be possible. Moisture will slowly increase D3/Sunday into D4/Monday across the region, with some increase in relative humidity across the western Mogollon Rim southward. This leads to uncertainty that relative humidity reductions will be widespread enough to warrant Critical highlights. ..Thornton.. 01/24/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0322 PM CST Fri Jan 24 2025 Valid 261200Z - 011200Z The long-wave pattern will be characterized by a cut-off low lingering across the western US, with periods of windy and dry conditions before potential for precipitation increases early next week. Late in the period, this system will eject into the Plains, bringing potential for windy/dry conditions across portions of the High Plains an Southern Plains. This may favor periods of elevated fire-weather conditions, though mostly marginal fuels should limit the potential for critical conditions. ...D3/Northern Arizona... Enhanced upper-level flow will remain across northern Arizona on Sunday, with potential for strong southwesterly surface winds to continue across the Mogollon Rim. Overlap of afternoon relative humidity reductions to 15-20 percent with sustained southwesterly winds at 10-15 mph will be possible. Moisture will slowly increase D3/Sunday into D4/Monday across the region, with some increase in relative humidity across the western Mogollon Rim southward. This leads to uncertainty that relative humidity reductions will be widespread enough to warrant Critical highlights. ..Thornton.. 01/24/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0322 PM CST Fri Jan 24 2025 Valid 261200Z - 011200Z The long-wave pattern will be characterized by a cut-off low lingering across the western US, with periods of windy and dry conditions before potential for precipitation increases early next week. Late in the period, this system will eject into the Plains, bringing potential for windy/dry conditions across portions of the High Plains an Southern Plains. This may favor periods of elevated fire-weather conditions, though mostly marginal fuels should limit the potential for critical conditions. ...D3/Northern Arizona... Enhanced upper-level flow will remain across northern Arizona on Sunday, with potential for strong southwesterly surface winds to continue across the Mogollon Rim. Overlap of afternoon relative humidity reductions to 15-20 percent with sustained southwesterly winds at 10-15 mph will be possible. Moisture will slowly increase D3/Sunday into D4/Monday across the region, with some increase in relative humidity across the western Mogollon Rim southward. This leads to uncertainty that relative humidity reductions will be widespread enough to warrant Critical highlights. ..Thornton.. 01/24/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0322 PM CST Fri Jan 24 2025 Valid 261200Z - 011200Z The long-wave pattern will be characterized by a cut-off low lingering across the western US, with periods of windy and dry conditions before potential for precipitation increases early next week. Late in the period, this system will eject into the Plains, bringing potential for windy/dry conditions across portions of the High Plains an Southern Plains. This may favor periods of elevated fire-weather conditions, though mostly marginal fuels should limit the potential for critical conditions. ...D3/Northern Arizona... Enhanced upper-level flow will remain across northern Arizona on Sunday, with potential for strong southwesterly surface winds to continue across the Mogollon Rim. Overlap of afternoon relative humidity reductions to 15-20 percent with sustained southwesterly winds at 10-15 mph will be possible. Moisture will slowly increase D3/Sunday into D4/Monday across the region, with some increase in relative humidity across the western Mogollon Rim southward. This leads to uncertainty that relative humidity reductions will be widespread enough to warrant Critical highlights. ..Thornton.. 01/24/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0151 PM CST Fri Jan 24 2025 Valid 251200Z - 261200Z No changes are needed to the D2 Fire Weather Outlook. See previous discussion below for more information. ..Thornton.. 01/24/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0134 AM CST Fri Jan 24 2025/ ...Synopsis... Fire weather concerns are expected to emerge across portions of Arizona by Saturday afternoon as low-level winds increase in response to a deepening upper wave along the West Coast. The breakdown of an upper ridge over the West Coast is underway ahead of an approaching trough based on recent water-vapor imagery and upper-air analyses. Broad surface pressure falls are anticipated across the greater inter-mountain West/High Plains over the next 24 hours, but will intensify over the Southwest through Saturday as the upper wave deepens along the southern CA coast. Recent forecast guidance suggests south/southeasterly winds between 15-25 mph will be likely - especially in the lee/northern slopes of the Mogollon Rim and across south-central AZ by late afternoon. Extensive mid/high-level cloud cover is anticipated through much of the day as mid-level isentropic ascent increases ahead of the deepening upper trough. However, 07 UTC surface observations sampled a very dry air mass across southern to central AZ characterized by dewpoints between -5 to -15 F. Consequently, even muted diurnal heating should promote RH reductions into the single digits to low teens, which will support elevated to locally critical fire weather conditions. Recent fuel analyses show ERC values generally near/above the 80th percentile - likely the result of 30-day rainfall totals between 2 to 5% of normal, which should support the fire weather concern. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0151 PM CST Fri Jan 24 2025 Valid 251200Z - 261200Z No changes are needed to the D2 Fire Weather Outlook. See previous discussion below for more information. ..Thornton.. 01/24/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0134 AM CST Fri Jan 24 2025/ ...Synopsis... Fire weather concerns are expected to emerge across portions of Arizona by Saturday afternoon as low-level winds increase in response to a deepening upper wave along the West Coast. The breakdown of an upper ridge over the West Coast is underway ahead of an approaching trough based on recent water-vapor imagery and upper-air analyses. Broad surface pressure falls are anticipated across the greater inter-mountain West/High Plains over the next 24 hours, but will intensify over the Southwest through Saturday as the upper wave deepens along the southern CA coast. Recent forecast guidance suggests south/southeasterly winds between 15-25 mph will be likely - especially in the lee/northern slopes of the Mogollon Rim and across south-central AZ by late afternoon. Extensive mid/high-level cloud cover is anticipated through much of the day as mid-level isentropic ascent increases ahead of the deepening upper trough. However, 07 UTC surface observations sampled a very dry air mass across southern to central AZ characterized by dewpoints between -5 to -15 F. Consequently, even muted diurnal heating should promote RH reductions into the single digits to low teens, which will support elevated to locally critical fire weather conditions. Recent fuel analyses show ERC values generally near/above the 80th percentile - likely the result of 30-day rainfall totals between 2 to 5% of normal, which should support the fire weather concern. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0151 PM CST Fri Jan 24 2025 Valid 251200Z - 261200Z No changes are needed to the D2 Fire Weather Outlook. See previous discussion below for more information. ..Thornton.. 01/24/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0134 AM CST Fri Jan 24 2025/ ...Synopsis... Fire weather concerns are expected to emerge across portions of Arizona by Saturday afternoon as low-level winds increase in response to a deepening upper wave along the West Coast. The breakdown of an upper ridge over the West Coast is underway ahead of an approaching trough based on recent water-vapor imagery and upper-air analyses. Broad surface pressure falls are anticipated across the greater inter-mountain West/High Plains over the next 24 hours, but will intensify over the Southwest through Saturday as the upper wave deepens along the southern CA coast. Recent forecast guidance suggests south/southeasterly winds between 15-25 mph will be likely - especially in the lee/northern slopes of the Mogollon Rim and across south-central AZ by late afternoon. Extensive mid/high-level cloud cover is anticipated through much of the day as mid-level isentropic ascent increases ahead of the deepening upper trough. However, 07 UTC surface observations sampled a very dry air mass across southern to central AZ characterized by dewpoints between -5 to -15 F. Consequently, even muted diurnal heating should promote RH reductions into the single digits to low teens, which will support elevated to locally critical fire weather conditions. Recent fuel analyses show ERC values generally near/above the 80th percentile - likely the result of 30-day rainfall totals between 2 to 5% of normal, which should support the fire weather concern. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0151 PM CST Fri Jan 24 2025 Valid 251200Z - 261200Z No changes are needed to the D2 Fire Weather Outlook. See previous discussion below for more information. ..Thornton.. 01/24/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0134 AM CST Fri Jan 24 2025/ ...Synopsis... Fire weather concerns are expected to emerge across portions of Arizona by Saturday afternoon as low-level winds increase in response to a deepening upper wave along the West Coast. The breakdown of an upper ridge over the West Coast is underway ahead of an approaching trough based on recent water-vapor imagery and upper-air analyses. Broad surface pressure falls are anticipated across the greater inter-mountain West/High Plains over the next 24 hours, but will intensify over the Southwest through Saturday as the upper wave deepens along the southern CA coast. Recent forecast guidance suggests south/southeasterly winds between 15-25 mph will be likely - especially in the lee/northern slopes of the Mogollon Rim and across south-central AZ by late afternoon. Extensive mid/high-level cloud cover is anticipated through much of the day as mid-level isentropic ascent increases ahead of the deepening upper trough. However, 07 UTC surface observations sampled a very dry air mass across southern to central AZ characterized by dewpoints between -5 to -15 F. Consequently, even muted diurnal heating should promote RH reductions into the single digits to low teens, which will support elevated to locally critical fire weather conditions. Recent fuel analyses show ERC values generally near/above the 80th percentile - likely the result of 30-day rainfall totals between 2 to 5% of normal, which should support the fire weather concern. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more