Severe Storms

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0138 PM CST Sat Jan 25 2025 Valid 261200Z - 271200Z No changes are needed to the D2 Fire Weather Outlook. See previous discussion below for more information. ..Thornton.. 01/25/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0143 AM CST Sat Jan 25 2025/ ...Synopsis... Fire weather concerns are expected to linger across parts of southeastern and eastern Arizona on Sunday, but will remain limited elsewhere across the country. An upper wave that is in the early stages of amplification along the northern CA coast is forecast to continue deepening through the weekend as is migrates south/southeast towards the SoCal coast. This will maintain a swath of strong mid-level winds across much of AZ for the next 24-48 hours. At the surface, the greatest pressure falls will likely reside along the SoCal coast in proximity to the deepening upper wave and across portions of northern Mexico, resulting in a somewhat muted pressure gradient compared to today/Saturday. Consequently, winds will likely be weaker, but most solutions suggest sustained winds around 15 mph are still probable across southeast AZ where a deep boundary layer will aid in downward mixing of stronger mid-level winds, and along the northern slopes of the Mogollon Rim. Limited moisture return into the region will maintain RH minimums generally between 10-15%. Combined with antecedent dry fuels and breezy conditions, this should promote another day of at least elevated fire weather conditions. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0138 PM CST Sat Jan 25 2025 Valid 261200Z - 271200Z No changes are needed to the D2 Fire Weather Outlook. See previous discussion below for more information. ..Thornton.. 01/25/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0143 AM CST Sat Jan 25 2025/ ...Synopsis... Fire weather concerns are expected to linger across parts of southeastern and eastern Arizona on Sunday, but will remain limited elsewhere across the country. An upper wave that is in the early stages of amplification along the northern CA coast is forecast to continue deepening through the weekend as is migrates south/southeast towards the SoCal coast. This will maintain a swath of strong mid-level winds across much of AZ for the next 24-48 hours. At the surface, the greatest pressure falls will likely reside along the SoCal coast in proximity to the deepening upper wave and across portions of northern Mexico, resulting in a somewhat muted pressure gradient compared to today/Saturday. Consequently, winds will likely be weaker, but most solutions suggest sustained winds around 15 mph are still probable across southeast AZ where a deep boundary layer will aid in downward mixing of stronger mid-level winds, and along the northern slopes of the Mogollon Rim. Limited moisture return into the region will maintain RH minimums generally between 10-15%. Combined with antecedent dry fuels and breezy conditions, this should promote another day of at least elevated fire weather conditions. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC 1930Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0120 PM CST Sat Jan 25 2025 Valid 271200Z - 281200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Isolated thunderstorms will be possible on Monday from southern Louisiana into far southeast Texas, and in southern California, but no severe threat is expected. ...Synopsis... A mid-level trough will traverse the East Coast while an upper-low drifts across the Southwest on Monday. A surface cold front will move off of LA to FL Panhandle coastline during the first half of the period. Enough lift and moisture ahead of the front may support an isolated thunderstorm before the front moves offshore. A couple of thunderstorms also cannot be ruled out over southern CA, where cold air aloft associated with an upper-low may result in enough buoyancy (albeit scant) to support low-topped thunderstorms. ..Squitieri.. 01/25/2025 Read more

SPC 1930Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0120 PM CST Sat Jan 25 2025 Valid 271200Z - 281200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Isolated thunderstorms will be possible on Monday from southern Louisiana into far southeast Texas, and in southern California, but no severe threat is expected. ...Synopsis... A mid-level trough will traverse the East Coast while an upper-low drifts across the Southwest on Monday. A surface cold front will move off of LA to FL Panhandle coastline during the first half of the period. Enough lift and moisture ahead of the front may support an isolated thunderstorm before the front moves offshore. A couple of thunderstorms also cannot be ruled out over southern CA, where cold air aloft associated with an upper-low may result in enough buoyancy (albeit scant) to support low-topped thunderstorms. ..Squitieri.. 01/25/2025 Read more

SPC 1930Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0120 PM CST Sat Jan 25 2025 Valid 271200Z - 281200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Isolated thunderstorms will be possible on Monday from southern Louisiana into far southeast Texas, and in southern California, but no severe threat is expected. ...Synopsis... A mid-level trough will traverse the East Coast while an upper-low drifts across the Southwest on Monday. A surface cold front will move off of LA to FL Panhandle coastline during the first half of the period. Enough lift and moisture ahead of the front may support an isolated thunderstorm before the front moves offshore. A couple of thunderstorms also cannot be ruled out over southern CA, where cold air aloft associated with an upper-low may result in enough buoyancy (albeit scant) to support low-topped thunderstorms. ..Squitieri.. 01/25/2025 Read more

SPC 1930Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0120 PM CST Sat Jan 25 2025 Valid 271200Z - 281200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Isolated thunderstorms will be possible on Monday from southern Louisiana into far southeast Texas, and in southern California, but no severe threat is expected. ...Synopsis... A mid-level trough will traverse the East Coast while an upper-low drifts across the Southwest on Monday. A surface cold front will move off of LA to FL Panhandle coastline during the first half of the period. Enough lift and moisture ahead of the front may support an isolated thunderstorm before the front moves offshore. A couple of thunderstorms also cannot be ruled out over southern CA, where cold air aloft associated with an upper-low may result in enough buoyancy (albeit scant) to support low-topped thunderstorms. ..Squitieri.. 01/25/2025 Read more

SPC 1930Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0120 PM CST Sat Jan 25 2025 Valid 271200Z - 281200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Isolated thunderstorms will be possible on Monday from southern Louisiana into far southeast Texas, and in southern California, but no severe threat is expected. ...Synopsis... A mid-level trough will traverse the East Coast while an upper-low drifts across the Southwest on Monday. A surface cold front will move off of LA to FL Panhandle coastline during the first half of the period. Enough lift and moisture ahead of the front may support an isolated thunderstorm before the front moves offshore. A couple of thunderstorms also cannot be ruled out over southern CA, where cold air aloft associated with an upper-low may result in enough buoyancy (albeit scant) to support low-topped thunderstorms. ..Squitieri.. 01/25/2025 Read more

SPC 1930Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0120 PM CST Sat Jan 25 2025 Valid 271200Z - 281200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Isolated thunderstorms will be possible on Monday from southern Louisiana into far southeast Texas, and in southern California, but no severe threat is expected. ...Synopsis... A mid-level trough will traverse the East Coast while an upper-low drifts across the Southwest on Monday. A surface cold front will move off of LA to FL Panhandle coastline during the first half of the period. Enough lift and moisture ahead of the front may support an isolated thunderstorm before the front moves offshore. A couple of thunderstorms also cannot be ruled out over southern CA, where cold air aloft associated with an upper-low may result in enough buoyancy (albeit scant) to support low-topped thunderstorms. ..Squitieri.. 01/25/2025 Read more

SPC 1930Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0120 PM CST Sat Jan 25 2025 Valid 271200Z - 281200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Isolated thunderstorms will be possible on Monday from southern Louisiana into far southeast Texas, and in southern California, but no severe threat is expected. ...Synopsis... A mid-level trough will traverse the East Coast while an upper-low drifts across the Southwest on Monday. A surface cold front will move off of LA to FL Panhandle coastline during the first half of the period. Enough lift and moisture ahead of the front may support an isolated thunderstorm before the front moves offshore. A couple of thunderstorms also cannot be ruled out over southern CA, where cold air aloft associated with an upper-low may result in enough buoyancy (albeit scant) to support low-topped thunderstorms. ..Squitieri.. 01/25/2025 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1108 AM CST Sat Jan 25 2025 Valid 261200Z - 271200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Isolated to scattered thunderstorms will be possible from Sunday into Sunday night from the Texas Coastal Plain into the lower Mississippi Valley, as well as portions of the California coastline. No severe threat is expected. ...Synopsis... A vertically stacked cyclone will meander along the California coastline as a positively tilted mid-level trough traverses the eastern U.S., and ridging aloft builds into the southern Plains tomorrow (Sunday). Some deepening of the eastern upper trough will encourage low-level WAA across portions of eastern TX into the Southeast, where an increase and both moisture and lift will support scattered thunderstorm development. 7-8 C/km lapse rates overspreading portions of eastern TX may support isolated bouts of small hail in the stronger updrafts given 40-50 kts of deep-layer speed shear. Along the CA coastline, adequate surface heating amid the stacked cyclone will result in surface temperatures reaching the low to mid 50s F in spots. Boundary layer mixing will support 7-8 C/km low-level lapse rates, with 0-3 km CAPE reaching the 100-150 J/kg range. Though convection should be low-topped, updrafts may become just deep enough to foster liquid/ice phase mixing and subsequent charge separation needed for isolated lightning flashes. Furthermore, the more robust updrafts benefiting from locally higher 0-3 km CAPE beneath the stacked cyclone may have enough vertical vorticity to work with such that a brief landspout cannot be completely ruled out. However, confidence in this scenario is too low to support severe probabilities at this time. ..Squitieri.. 01/25/2025 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1108 AM CST Sat Jan 25 2025 Valid 261200Z - 271200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Isolated to scattered thunderstorms will be possible from Sunday into Sunday night from the Texas Coastal Plain into the lower Mississippi Valley, as well as portions of the California coastline. No severe threat is expected. ...Synopsis... A vertically stacked cyclone will meander along the California coastline as a positively tilted mid-level trough traverses the eastern U.S., and ridging aloft builds into the southern Plains tomorrow (Sunday). Some deepening of the eastern upper trough will encourage low-level WAA across portions of eastern TX into the Southeast, where an increase and both moisture and lift will support scattered thunderstorm development. 7-8 C/km lapse rates overspreading portions of eastern TX may support isolated bouts of small hail in the stronger updrafts given 40-50 kts of deep-layer speed shear. Along the CA coastline, adequate surface heating amid the stacked cyclone will result in surface temperatures reaching the low to mid 50s F in spots. Boundary layer mixing will support 7-8 C/km low-level lapse rates, with 0-3 km CAPE reaching the 100-150 J/kg range. Though convection should be low-topped, updrafts may become just deep enough to foster liquid/ice phase mixing and subsequent charge separation needed for isolated lightning flashes. Furthermore, the more robust updrafts benefiting from locally higher 0-3 km CAPE beneath the stacked cyclone may have enough vertical vorticity to work with such that a brief landspout cannot be completely ruled out. However, confidence in this scenario is too low to support severe probabilities at this time. ..Squitieri.. 01/25/2025 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1108 AM CST Sat Jan 25 2025 Valid 261200Z - 271200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Isolated to scattered thunderstorms will be possible from Sunday into Sunday night from the Texas Coastal Plain into the lower Mississippi Valley, as well as portions of the California coastline. No severe threat is expected. ...Synopsis... A vertically stacked cyclone will meander along the California coastline as a positively tilted mid-level trough traverses the eastern U.S., and ridging aloft builds into the southern Plains tomorrow (Sunday). Some deepening of the eastern upper trough will encourage low-level WAA across portions of eastern TX into the Southeast, where an increase and both moisture and lift will support scattered thunderstorm development. 7-8 C/km lapse rates overspreading portions of eastern TX may support isolated bouts of small hail in the stronger updrafts given 40-50 kts of deep-layer speed shear. Along the CA coastline, adequate surface heating amid the stacked cyclone will result in surface temperatures reaching the low to mid 50s F in spots. Boundary layer mixing will support 7-8 C/km low-level lapse rates, with 0-3 km CAPE reaching the 100-150 J/kg range. Though convection should be low-topped, updrafts may become just deep enough to foster liquid/ice phase mixing and subsequent charge separation needed for isolated lightning flashes. Furthermore, the more robust updrafts benefiting from locally higher 0-3 km CAPE beneath the stacked cyclone may have enough vertical vorticity to work with such that a brief landspout cannot be completely ruled out. However, confidence in this scenario is too low to support severe probabilities at this time. ..Squitieri.. 01/25/2025 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1108 AM CST Sat Jan 25 2025 Valid 261200Z - 271200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Isolated to scattered thunderstorms will be possible from Sunday into Sunday night from the Texas Coastal Plain into the lower Mississippi Valley, as well as portions of the California coastline. No severe threat is expected. ...Synopsis... A vertically stacked cyclone will meander along the California coastline as a positively tilted mid-level trough traverses the eastern U.S., and ridging aloft builds into the southern Plains tomorrow (Sunday). Some deepening of the eastern upper trough will encourage low-level WAA across portions of eastern TX into the Southeast, where an increase and both moisture and lift will support scattered thunderstorm development. 7-8 C/km lapse rates overspreading portions of eastern TX may support isolated bouts of small hail in the stronger updrafts given 40-50 kts of deep-layer speed shear. Along the CA coastline, adequate surface heating amid the stacked cyclone will result in surface temperatures reaching the low to mid 50s F in spots. Boundary layer mixing will support 7-8 C/km low-level lapse rates, with 0-3 km CAPE reaching the 100-150 J/kg range. Though convection should be low-topped, updrafts may become just deep enough to foster liquid/ice phase mixing and subsequent charge separation needed for isolated lightning flashes. Furthermore, the more robust updrafts benefiting from locally higher 0-3 km CAPE beneath the stacked cyclone may have enough vertical vorticity to work with such that a brief landspout cannot be completely ruled out. However, confidence in this scenario is too low to support severe probabilities at this time. ..Squitieri.. 01/25/2025 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1108 AM CST Sat Jan 25 2025 Valid 261200Z - 271200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Isolated to scattered thunderstorms will be possible from Sunday into Sunday night from the Texas Coastal Plain into the lower Mississippi Valley, as well as portions of the California coastline. No severe threat is expected. ...Synopsis... A vertically stacked cyclone will meander along the California coastline as a positively tilted mid-level trough traverses the eastern U.S., and ridging aloft builds into the southern Plains tomorrow (Sunday). Some deepening of the eastern upper trough will encourage low-level WAA across portions of eastern TX into the Southeast, where an increase and both moisture and lift will support scattered thunderstorm development. 7-8 C/km lapse rates overspreading portions of eastern TX may support isolated bouts of small hail in the stronger updrafts given 40-50 kts of deep-layer speed shear. Along the CA coastline, adequate surface heating amid the stacked cyclone will result in surface temperatures reaching the low to mid 50s F in spots. Boundary layer mixing will support 7-8 C/km low-level lapse rates, with 0-3 km CAPE reaching the 100-150 J/kg range. Though convection should be low-topped, updrafts may become just deep enough to foster liquid/ice phase mixing and subsequent charge separation needed for isolated lightning flashes. Furthermore, the more robust updrafts benefiting from locally higher 0-3 km CAPE beneath the stacked cyclone may have enough vertical vorticity to work with such that a brief landspout cannot be completely ruled out. However, confidence in this scenario is too low to support severe probabilities at this time. ..Squitieri.. 01/25/2025 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1108 AM CST Sat Jan 25 2025 Valid 261200Z - 271200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Isolated to scattered thunderstorms will be possible from Sunday into Sunday night from the Texas Coastal Plain into the lower Mississippi Valley, as well as portions of the California coastline. No severe threat is expected. ...Synopsis... A vertically stacked cyclone will meander along the California coastline as a positively tilted mid-level trough traverses the eastern U.S., and ridging aloft builds into the southern Plains tomorrow (Sunday). Some deepening of the eastern upper trough will encourage low-level WAA across portions of eastern TX into the Southeast, where an increase and both moisture and lift will support scattered thunderstorm development. 7-8 C/km lapse rates overspreading portions of eastern TX may support isolated bouts of small hail in the stronger updrafts given 40-50 kts of deep-layer speed shear. Along the CA coastline, adequate surface heating amid the stacked cyclone will result in surface temperatures reaching the low to mid 50s F in spots. Boundary layer mixing will support 7-8 C/km low-level lapse rates, with 0-3 km CAPE reaching the 100-150 J/kg range. Though convection should be low-topped, updrafts may become just deep enough to foster liquid/ice phase mixing and subsequent charge separation needed for isolated lightning flashes. Furthermore, the more robust updrafts benefiting from locally higher 0-3 km CAPE beneath the stacked cyclone may have enough vertical vorticity to work with such that a brief landspout cannot be completely ruled out. However, confidence in this scenario is too low to support severe probabilities at this time. ..Squitieri.. 01/25/2025 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1108 AM CST Sat Jan 25 2025 Valid 261200Z - 271200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Isolated to scattered thunderstorms will be possible from Sunday into Sunday night from the Texas Coastal Plain into the lower Mississippi Valley, as well as portions of the California coastline. No severe threat is expected. ...Synopsis... A vertically stacked cyclone will meander along the California coastline as a positively tilted mid-level trough traverses the eastern U.S., and ridging aloft builds into the southern Plains tomorrow (Sunday). Some deepening of the eastern upper trough will encourage low-level WAA across portions of eastern TX into the Southeast, where an increase and both moisture and lift will support scattered thunderstorm development. 7-8 C/km lapse rates overspreading portions of eastern TX may support isolated bouts of small hail in the stronger updrafts given 40-50 kts of deep-layer speed shear. Along the CA coastline, adequate surface heating amid the stacked cyclone will result in surface temperatures reaching the low to mid 50s F in spots. Boundary layer mixing will support 7-8 C/km low-level lapse rates, with 0-3 km CAPE reaching the 100-150 J/kg range. Though convection should be low-topped, updrafts may become just deep enough to foster liquid/ice phase mixing and subsequent charge separation needed for isolated lightning flashes. Furthermore, the more robust updrafts benefiting from locally higher 0-3 km CAPE beneath the stacked cyclone may have enough vertical vorticity to work with such that a brief landspout cannot be completely ruled out. However, confidence in this scenario is too low to support severe probabilities at this time. ..Squitieri.. 01/25/2025 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1108 AM CST Sat Jan 25 2025 Valid 261200Z - 271200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Isolated to scattered thunderstorms will be possible from Sunday into Sunday night from the Texas Coastal Plain into the lower Mississippi Valley, as well as portions of the California coastline. No severe threat is expected. ...Synopsis... A vertically stacked cyclone will meander along the California coastline as a positively tilted mid-level trough traverses the eastern U.S., and ridging aloft builds into the southern Plains tomorrow (Sunday). Some deepening of the eastern upper trough will encourage low-level WAA across portions of eastern TX into the Southeast, where an increase and both moisture and lift will support scattered thunderstorm development. 7-8 C/km lapse rates overspreading portions of eastern TX may support isolated bouts of small hail in the stronger updrafts given 40-50 kts of deep-layer speed shear. Along the CA coastline, adequate surface heating amid the stacked cyclone will result in surface temperatures reaching the low to mid 50s F in spots. Boundary layer mixing will support 7-8 C/km low-level lapse rates, with 0-3 km CAPE reaching the 100-150 J/kg range. Though convection should be low-topped, updrafts may become just deep enough to foster liquid/ice phase mixing and subsequent charge separation needed for isolated lightning flashes. Furthermore, the more robust updrafts benefiting from locally higher 0-3 km CAPE beneath the stacked cyclone may have enough vertical vorticity to work with such that a brief landspout cannot be completely ruled out. However, confidence in this scenario is too low to support severe probabilities at this time. ..Squitieri.. 01/25/2025 Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1043 AM CST Sat Jan 25 2025 Valid 251700Z - 261200Z ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR PARTS OF EASTERN ARIZONA... ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR PARTS OF SOUTHERN ARIZONA... No changes are needed to the D1 Fire Weather Outlook. See previous discussion below for more information. ..Thornton.. 01/25/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0141 AM CST Sat Jan 25 2025/ ...Synopsis... Critical fire weather concerns are expected today across portions of southern and east-central Arizona. Early-morning water-vapor imagery shows a deepening upper trough off the northern CA coast with additional impulses embedded within the mean southwesterly flow ahead of the primary upper trough axis. These features are expected to shift east/southeast into the lower CO River Valley and Southwest through today, resulting in surface pressure falls from central CA into the Four Corners region. The low-level mass response will induce south/southwesterly winds across much of AZ and adjacent portions of NM, CA, and southern NV with 15-25 mph winds likely. Recent ensemble guidance continues to suggest the strongest winds will likely reside across south-central AZ and along the northern slopes of the Mogollon Rim where sustained winds of at least 20 mph are expected with gusts upwards of 30-35 mph possible. Despite an increase in cloud cover, a very dry air mass currently in place across southern AZ (characterized by nocturnal RH values in the single digits to low teens) will spread north and promote widespread RH minimums near 10-15% by mid/late afternoon. Consequently, elevated to critical fire weather conditions are expected for a few hours this afternoon. Substantial 30-day rainfall deficits have resulted in receptive fuels across much of the region with ERCs generally around the 80th percentile, which is sufficient to support the fire weather concern. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1043 AM CST Sat Jan 25 2025 Valid 251700Z - 261200Z ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR PARTS OF EASTERN ARIZONA... ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR PARTS OF SOUTHERN ARIZONA... No changes are needed to the D1 Fire Weather Outlook. See previous discussion below for more information. ..Thornton.. 01/25/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0141 AM CST Sat Jan 25 2025/ ...Synopsis... Critical fire weather concerns are expected today across portions of southern and east-central Arizona. Early-morning water-vapor imagery shows a deepening upper trough off the northern CA coast with additional impulses embedded within the mean southwesterly flow ahead of the primary upper trough axis. These features are expected to shift east/southeast into the lower CO River Valley and Southwest through today, resulting in surface pressure falls from central CA into the Four Corners region. The low-level mass response will induce south/southwesterly winds across much of AZ and adjacent portions of NM, CA, and southern NV with 15-25 mph winds likely. Recent ensemble guidance continues to suggest the strongest winds will likely reside across south-central AZ and along the northern slopes of the Mogollon Rim where sustained winds of at least 20 mph are expected with gusts upwards of 30-35 mph possible. Despite an increase in cloud cover, a very dry air mass currently in place across southern AZ (characterized by nocturnal RH values in the single digits to low teens) will spread north and promote widespread RH minimums near 10-15% by mid/late afternoon. Consequently, elevated to critical fire weather conditions are expected for a few hours this afternoon. Substantial 30-day rainfall deficits have resulted in receptive fuels across much of the region with ERCs generally around the 80th percentile, which is sufficient to support the fire weather concern. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1043 AM CST Sat Jan 25 2025 Valid 251700Z - 261200Z ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR PARTS OF EASTERN ARIZONA... ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR PARTS OF SOUTHERN ARIZONA... No changes are needed to the D1 Fire Weather Outlook. See previous discussion below for more information. ..Thornton.. 01/25/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0141 AM CST Sat Jan 25 2025/ ...Synopsis... Critical fire weather concerns are expected today across portions of southern and east-central Arizona. Early-morning water-vapor imagery shows a deepening upper trough off the northern CA coast with additional impulses embedded within the mean southwesterly flow ahead of the primary upper trough axis. These features are expected to shift east/southeast into the lower CO River Valley and Southwest through today, resulting in surface pressure falls from central CA into the Four Corners region. The low-level mass response will induce south/southwesterly winds across much of AZ and adjacent portions of NM, CA, and southern NV with 15-25 mph winds likely. Recent ensemble guidance continues to suggest the strongest winds will likely reside across south-central AZ and along the northern slopes of the Mogollon Rim where sustained winds of at least 20 mph are expected with gusts upwards of 30-35 mph possible. Despite an increase in cloud cover, a very dry air mass currently in place across southern AZ (characterized by nocturnal RH values in the single digits to low teens) will spread north and promote widespread RH minimums near 10-15% by mid/late afternoon. Consequently, elevated to critical fire weather conditions are expected for a few hours this afternoon. Substantial 30-day rainfall deficits have resulted in receptive fuels across much of the region with ERCs generally around the 80th percentile, which is sufficient to support the fire weather concern. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more