Severe Storms

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1006 AM CST Fri Jan 31 2025 Valid 311630Z - 011200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON OVER THE CENTRAL FLORIDA PANHANDLE AND VICINITY.... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorms with isolated damaging gusts are possible this afternoon across parts of the central Florida Panhandle and vicinity. ...Southeast AL/Southwest GA/FL Panhandle... A large, positively tilted upper trough/low is over the Mid MS Valley today, with an associated surface cold front sweeping eastward across AL/GA/FL. Southerly low-level winds ahead of the front have weakened considerably from yesterday, limiting the northward transport of Gulf moisture. Dewpoints in the 50s and lower 60s are common ahead of the front, but this only results in MUCAPE values less than 250 J/kg. One small area of slightly greater instability may occur later this afternoon over the central FL Panhandle and vicinity where visible satellite imagery shows broken clouds and more heating potential. This area remains in the MRGL risk. Later tonight, the cold front will sweep eastward across GA and the Carolinas. A combination of weak instability and limited forcing in the warm sector suggests any deep convection that can form will be along, and more likely behind, the front. ..Hart/Gleason.. 01/31/2025 Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1006 AM CST Fri Jan 31 2025 Valid 311630Z - 011200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON OVER THE CENTRAL FLORIDA PANHANDLE AND VICINITY.... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorms with isolated damaging gusts are possible this afternoon across parts of the central Florida Panhandle and vicinity. ...Southeast AL/Southwest GA/FL Panhandle... A large, positively tilted upper trough/low is over the Mid MS Valley today, with an associated surface cold front sweeping eastward across AL/GA/FL. Southerly low-level winds ahead of the front have weakened considerably from yesterday, limiting the northward transport of Gulf moisture. Dewpoints in the 50s and lower 60s are common ahead of the front, but this only results in MUCAPE values less than 250 J/kg. One small area of slightly greater instability may occur later this afternoon over the central FL Panhandle and vicinity where visible satellite imagery shows broken clouds and more heating potential. This area remains in the MRGL risk. Later tonight, the cold front will sweep eastward across GA and the Carolinas. A combination of weak instability and limited forcing in the warm sector suggests any deep convection that can form will be along, and more likely behind, the front. ..Hart/Gleason.. 01/31/2025 Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1006 AM CST Fri Jan 31 2025 Valid 311630Z - 011200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON OVER THE CENTRAL FLORIDA PANHANDLE AND VICINITY.... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorms with isolated damaging gusts are possible this afternoon across parts of the central Florida Panhandle and vicinity. ...Southeast AL/Southwest GA/FL Panhandle... A large, positively tilted upper trough/low is over the Mid MS Valley today, with an associated surface cold front sweeping eastward across AL/GA/FL. Southerly low-level winds ahead of the front have weakened considerably from yesterday, limiting the northward transport of Gulf moisture. Dewpoints in the 50s and lower 60s are common ahead of the front, but this only results in MUCAPE values less than 250 J/kg. One small area of slightly greater instability may occur later this afternoon over the central FL Panhandle and vicinity where visible satellite imagery shows broken clouds and more heating potential. This area remains in the MRGL risk. Later tonight, the cold front will sweep eastward across GA and the Carolinas. A combination of weak instability and limited forcing in the warm sector suggests any deep convection that can form will be along, and more likely behind, the front. ..Hart/Gleason.. 01/31/2025 Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1006 AM CST Fri Jan 31 2025 Valid 311630Z - 011200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON OVER THE CENTRAL FLORIDA PANHANDLE AND VICINITY.... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorms with isolated damaging gusts are possible this afternoon across parts of the central Florida Panhandle and vicinity. ...Southeast AL/Southwest GA/FL Panhandle... A large, positively tilted upper trough/low is over the Mid MS Valley today, with an associated surface cold front sweeping eastward across AL/GA/FL. Southerly low-level winds ahead of the front have weakened considerably from yesterday, limiting the northward transport of Gulf moisture. Dewpoints in the 50s and lower 60s are common ahead of the front, but this only results in MUCAPE values less than 250 J/kg. One small area of slightly greater instability may occur later this afternoon over the central FL Panhandle and vicinity where visible satellite imagery shows broken clouds and more heating potential. This area remains in the MRGL risk. Later tonight, the cold front will sweep eastward across GA and the Carolinas. A combination of weak instability and limited forcing in the warm sector suggests any deep convection that can form will be along, and more likely behind, the front. ..Hart/Gleason.. 01/31/2025 Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1006 AM CST Fri Jan 31 2025 Valid 311630Z - 011200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON OVER THE CENTRAL FLORIDA PANHANDLE AND VICINITY.... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorms with isolated damaging gusts are possible this afternoon across parts of the central Florida Panhandle and vicinity. ...Southeast AL/Southwest GA/FL Panhandle... A large, positively tilted upper trough/low is over the Mid MS Valley today, with an associated surface cold front sweeping eastward across AL/GA/FL. Southerly low-level winds ahead of the front have weakened considerably from yesterday, limiting the northward transport of Gulf moisture. Dewpoints in the 50s and lower 60s are common ahead of the front, but this only results in MUCAPE values less than 250 J/kg. One small area of slightly greater instability may occur later this afternoon over the central FL Panhandle and vicinity where visible satellite imagery shows broken clouds and more heating potential. This area remains in the MRGL risk. Later tonight, the cold front will sweep eastward across GA and the Carolinas. A combination of weak instability and limited forcing in the warm sector suggests any deep convection that can form will be along, and more likely behind, the front. ..Hart/Gleason.. 01/31/2025 Read more

SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0651 AM CST Fri Jan 31 2025 Valid 311300Z - 011200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS SOUTHERN ALABAMA...SOUTHWEST GEORGIA...AND THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorms with isolated damaging gusts will be possible this afternoon across parts of the central Gulf Coast. ...Southern AL/FL Panhandle into southwest GA... Water-vapor imagery shows a mid- to upper-level low over the lower MO Valley this morning. This upper feature is forecast to evolve into an open wave and accelerate eastward to the Mid-Atlantic/Carolinas coast by early Saturday morning. Strong southwesterly mid-level flow will move through the base of the larger-scale trough over the central Gulf Coast states today. In the low levels, an effective cold front extends southward through western AL from an occluded surface low over the mid MS Valley. This front will push east during the day with southerly low-level flow acting to advect a still-modifying airmass northward into the FL Panhandle and AL/GA. Scant buoyancy sampled this morning on the 12 UTC Birmingham, AL raob (100 J/kg MUCAPE) will contribute to isolated thunderstorm development today. However, weak lapse rates and weak convergence associated with the front will likely limit storm intensity. Uncertainty remains whether robust updrafts can develop with the low-topped convective band moving east across southern AL this morning. Intensification of this band is quite uncertain at this time given a dearth of a severe signal in convection-allowing model guidance and observational trends trending lower. Will maintain a low-probability wind highlight for now given the aforementioned uncertainty. Elsewhere, weak instability may lead to isolated storms over central GA into the Carolinas later today. Forecast soundings show intense flow fields with 100-300 J/kg MUCAPE possibly developing with a neutral surface-1km AGL layer before frontal passage. Confidence in a strong storm over this region is low---precluding severe probabilities. ..Smith/Bentley.. 01/31/2025 Read more

SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0651 AM CST Fri Jan 31 2025 Valid 311300Z - 011200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS SOUTHERN ALABAMA...SOUTHWEST GEORGIA...AND THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorms with isolated damaging gusts will be possible this afternoon across parts of the central Gulf Coast. ...Southern AL/FL Panhandle into southwest GA... Water-vapor imagery shows a mid- to upper-level low over the lower MO Valley this morning. This upper feature is forecast to evolve into an open wave and accelerate eastward to the Mid-Atlantic/Carolinas coast by early Saturday morning. Strong southwesterly mid-level flow will move through the base of the larger-scale trough over the central Gulf Coast states today. In the low levels, an effective cold front extends southward through western AL from an occluded surface low over the mid MS Valley. This front will push east during the day with southerly low-level flow acting to advect a still-modifying airmass northward into the FL Panhandle and AL/GA. Scant buoyancy sampled this morning on the 12 UTC Birmingham, AL raob (100 J/kg MUCAPE) will contribute to isolated thunderstorm development today. However, weak lapse rates and weak convergence associated with the front will likely limit storm intensity. Uncertainty remains whether robust updrafts can develop with the low-topped convective band moving east across southern AL this morning. Intensification of this band is quite uncertain at this time given a dearth of a severe signal in convection-allowing model guidance and observational trends trending lower. Will maintain a low-probability wind highlight for now given the aforementioned uncertainty. Elsewhere, weak instability may lead to isolated storms over central GA into the Carolinas later today. Forecast soundings show intense flow fields with 100-300 J/kg MUCAPE possibly developing with a neutral surface-1km AGL layer before frontal passage. Confidence in a strong storm over this region is low---precluding severe probabilities. ..Smith/Bentley.. 01/31/2025 Read more

SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0651 AM CST Fri Jan 31 2025 Valid 311300Z - 011200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS SOUTHERN ALABAMA...SOUTHWEST GEORGIA...AND THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorms with isolated damaging gusts will be possible this afternoon across parts of the central Gulf Coast. ...Southern AL/FL Panhandle into southwest GA... Water-vapor imagery shows a mid- to upper-level low over the lower MO Valley this morning. This upper feature is forecast to evolve into an open wave and accelerate eastward to the Mid-Atlantic/Carolinas coast by early Saturday morning. Strong southwesterly mid-level flow will move through the base of the larger-scale trough over the central Gulf Coast states today. In the low levels, an effective cold front extends southward through western AL from an occluded surface low over the mid MS Valley. This front will push east during the day with southerly low-level flow acting to advect a still-modifying airmass northward into the FL Panhandle and AL/GA. Scant buoyancy sampled this morning on the 12 UTC Birmingham, AL raob (100 J/kg MUCAPE) will contribute to isolated thunderstorm development today. However, weak lapse rates and weak convergence associated with the front will likely limit storm intensity. Uncertainty remains whether robust updrafts can develop with the low-topped convective band moving east across southern AL this morning. Intensification of this band is quite uncertain at this time given a dearth of a severe signal in convection-allowing model guidance and observational trends trending lower. Will maintain a low-probability wind highlight for now given the aforementioned uncertainty. Elsewhere, weak instability may lead to isolated storms over central GA into the Carolinas later today. Forecast soundings show intense flow fields with 100-300 J/kg MUCAPE possibly developing with a neutral surface-1km AGL layer before frontal passage. Confidence in a strong storm over this region is low---precluding severe probabilities. ..Smith/Bentley.. 01/31/2025 Read more

SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0651 AM CST Fri Jan 31 2025 Valid 311300Z - 011200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS SOUTHERN ALABAMA...SOUTHWEST GEORGIA...AND THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorms with isolated damaging gusts will be possible this afternoon across parts of the central Gulf Coast. ...Southern AL/FL Panhandle into southwest GA... Water-vapor imagery shows a mid- to upper-level low over the lower MO Valley this morning. This upper feature is forecast to evolve into an open wave and accelerate eastward to the Mid-Atlantic/Carolinas coast by early Saturday morning. Strong southwesterly mid-level flow will move through the base of the larger-scale trough over the central Gulf Coast states today. In the low levels, an effective cold front extends southward through western AL from an occluded surface low over the mid MS Valley. This front will push east during the day with southerly low-level flow acting to advect a still-modifying airmass northward into the FL Panhandle and AL/GA. Scant buoyancy sampled this morning on the 12 UTC Birmingham, AL raob (100 J/kg MUCAPE) will contribute to isolated thunderstorm development today. However, weak lapse rates and weak convergence associated with the front will likely limit storm intensity. Uncertainty remains whether robust updrafts can develop with the low-topped convective band moving east across southern AL this morning. Intensification of this band is quite uncertain at this time given a dearth of a severe signal in convection-allowing model guidance and observational trends trending lower. Will maintain a low-probability wind highlight for now given the aforementioned uncertainty. Elsewhere, weak instability may lead to isolated storms over central GA into the Carolinas later today. Forecast soundings show intense flow fields with 100-300 J/kg MUCAPE possibly developing with a neutral surface-1km AGL layer before frontal passage. Confidence in a strong storm over this region is low---precluding severe probabilities. ..Smith/Bentley.. 01/31/2025 Read more

SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0651 AM CST Fri Jan 31 2025 Valid 311300Z - 011200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS SOUTHERN ALABAMA...SOUTHWEST GEORGIA...AND THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorms with isolated damaging gusts will be possible this afternoon across parts of the central Gulf Coast. ...Southern AL/FL Panhandle into southwest GA... Water-vapor imagery shows a mid- to upper-level low over the lower MO Valley this morning. This upper feature is forecast to evolve into an open wave and accelerate eastward to the Mid-Atlantic/Carolinas coast by early Saturday morning. Strong southwesterly mid-level flow will move through the base of the larger-scale trough over the central Gulf Coast states today. In the low levels, an effective cold front extends southward through western AL from an occluded surface low over the mid MS Valley. This front will push east during the day with southerly low-level flow acting to advect a still-modifying airmass northward into the FL Panhandle and AL/GA. Scant buoyancy sampled this morning on the 12 UTC Birmingham, AL raob (100 J/kg MUCAPE) will contribute to isolated thunderstorm development today. However, weak lapse rates and weak convergence associated with the front will likely limit storm intensity. Uncertainty remains whether robust updrafts can develop with the low-topped convective band moving east across southern AL this morning. Intensification of this band is quite uncertain at this time given a dearth of a severe signal in convection-allowing model guidance and observational trends trending lower. Will maintain a low-probability wind highlight for now given the aforementioned uncertainty. Elsewhere, weak instability may lead to isolated storms over central GA into the Carolinas later today. Forecast soundings show intense flow fields with 100-300 J/kg MUCAPE possibly developing with a neutral surface-1km AGL layer before frontal passage. Confidence in a strong storm over this region is low---precluding severe probabilities. ..Smith/Bentley.. 01/31/2025 Read more

SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0651 AM CST Fri Jan 31 2025 Valid 311300Z - 011200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS SOUTHERN ALABAMA...SOUTHWEST GEORGIA...AND THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorms with isolated damaging gusts will be possible this afternoon across parts of the central Gulf Coast. ...Southern AL/FL Panhandle into southwest GA... Water-vapor imagery shows a mid- to upper-level low over the lower MO Valley this morning. This upper feature is forecast to evolve into an open wave and accelerate eastward to the Mid-Atlantic/Carolinas coast by early Saturday morning. Strong southwesterly mid-level flow will move through the base of the larger-scale trough over the central Gulf Coast states today. In the low levels, an effective cold front extends southward through western AL from an occluded surface low over the mid MS Valley. This front will push east during the day with southerly low-level flow acting to advect a still-modifying airmass northward into the FL Panhandle and AL/GA. Scant buoyancy sampled this morning on the 12 UTC Birmingham, AL raob (100 J/kg MUCAPE) will contribute to isolated thunderstorm development today. However, weak lapse rates and weak convergence associated with the front will likely limit storm intensity. Uncertainty remains whether robust updrafts can develop with the low-topped convective band moving east across southern AL this morning. Intensification of this band is quite uncertain at this time given a dearth of a severe signal in convection-allowing model guidance and observational trends trending lower. Will maintain a low-probability wind highlight for now given the aforementioned uncertainty. Elsewhere, weak instability may lead to isolated storms over central GA into the Carolinas later today. Forecast soundings show intense flow fields with 100-300 J/kg MUCAPE possibly developing with a neutral surface-1km AGL layer before frontal passage. Confidence in a strong storm over this region is low---precluding severe probabilities. ..Smith/Bentley.. 01/31/2025 Read more

SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0651 AM CST Fri Jan 31 2025 Valid 311300Z - 011200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS SOUTHERN ALABAMA...SOUTHWEST GEORGIA...AND THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorms with isolated damaging gusts will be possible this afternoon across parts of the central Gulf Coast. ...Southern AL/FL Panhandle into southwest GA... Water-vapor imagery shows a mid- to upper-level low over the lower MO Valley this morning. This upper feature is forecast to evolve into an open wave and accelerate eastward to the Mid-Atlantic/Carolinas coast by early Saturday morning. Strong southwesterly mid-level flow will move through the base of the larger-scale trough over the central Gulf Coast states today. In the low levels, an effective cold front extends southward through western AL from an occluded surface low over the mid MS Valley. This front will push east during the day with southerly low-level flow acting to advect a still-modifying airmass northward into the FL Panhandle and AL/GA. Scant buoyancy sampled this morning on the 12 UTC Birmingham, AL raob (100 J/kg MUCAPE) will contribute to isolated thunderstorm development today. However, weak lapse rates and weak convergence associated with the front will likely limit storm intensity. Uncertainty remains whether robust updrafts can develop with the low-topped convective band moving east across southern AL this morning. Intensification of this band is quite uncertain at this time given a dearth of a severe signal in convection-allowing model guidance and observational trends trending lower. Will maintain a low-probability wind highlight for now given the aforementioned uncertainty. Elsewhere, weak instability may lead to isolated storms over central GA into the Carolinas later today. Forecast soundings show intense flow fields with 100-300 J/kg MUCAPE possibly developing with a neutral surface-1km AGL layer before frontal passage. Confidence in a strong storm over this region is low---precluding severe probabilities. ..Smith/Bentley.. 01/31/2025 Read more

Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0409 AM CST Fri Jan 31 2025 Valid 031200Z - 081200Z ...DISCUSSION... A generally low-amplitude upper pattern, characterized by fast westerly flow aloft, is expected to prevail through the medium-range period. Global models are in reasonably good agreement with most of the synoptic-scale details into day 6 (Wednesday), after which differences become increasingly apparent. Days 4-5, the generally zonal flow pattern will persist, though some minor amplification of troughing over the West is expected Day 5, as the western Canada low drifts southward toward/into the Pacific Northwest. A rather subtle, lead shortwave trough is forecast to shift across southern California into the Desert Southwest late day 5 (Tuesday), and into the central Plains through the first half of day 6. An associated, central Plains surface low is forecast to evolve, with a cold front shifting out of the southern Rockies toward the southern Plains. With favorably strong flow aloft, any elevated destabilization sufficient to support convective development may result in some potential for hail across central portions of the country. At this time, however, expectations for weak instability overall, and likelihood that the boundary layer remains stable, should preclude appreciable surface based thunderstorm potential. In any case, any potential for severe weather appears too low to warrant areal inclusion at this time. The surface front should continue eastward/southeastward across the U.S. days 6-7, but even weaker instability expected ahead of the boundary should preclude any appreciable severe weather potential. Read more

Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0409 AM CST Fri Jan 31 2025 Valid 031200Z - 081200Z ...DISCUSSION... A generally low-amplitude upper pattern, characterized by fast westerly flow aloft, is expected to prevail through the medium-range period. Global models are in reasonably good agreement with most of the synoptic-scale details into day 6 (Wednesday), after which differences become increasingly apparent. Days 4-5, the generally zonal flow pattern will persist, though some minor amplification of troughing over the West is expected Day 5, as the western Canada low drifts southward toward/into the Pacific Northwest. A rather subtle, lead shortwave trough is forecast to shift across southern California into the Desert Southwest late day 5 (Tuesday), and into the central Plains through the first half of day 6. An associated, central Plains surface low is forecast to evolve, with a cold front shifting out of the southern Rockies toward the southern Plains. With favorably strong flow aloft, any elevated destabilization sufficient to support convective development may result in some potential for hail across central portions of the country. At this time, however, expectations for weak instability overall, and likelihood that the boundary layer remains stable, should preclude appreciable surface based thunderstorm potential. In any case, any potential for severe weather appears too low to warrant areal inclusion at this time. The surface front should continue eastward/southeastward across the U.S. days 6-7, but even weaker instability expected ahead of the boundary should preclude any appreciable severe weather potential. Read more

Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0409 AM CST Fri Jan 31 2025 Valid 031200Z - 081200Z ...DISCUSSION... A generally low-amplitude upper pattern, characterized by fast westerly flow aloft, is expected to prevail through the medium-range period. Global models are in reasonably good agreement with most of the synoptic-scale details into day 6 (Wednesday), after which differences become increasingly apparent. Days 4-5, the generally zonal flow pattern will persist, though some minor amplification of troughing over the West is expected Day 5, as the western Canada low drifts southward toward/into the Pacific Northwest. A rather subtle, lead shortwave trough is forecast to shift across southern California into the Desert Southwest late day 5 (Tuesday), and into the central Plains through the first half of day 6. An associated, central Plains surface low is forecast to evolve, with a cold front shifting out of the southern Rockies toward the southern Plains. With favorably strong flow aloft, any elevated destabilization sufficient to support convective development may result in some potential for hail across central portions of the country. At this time, however, expectations for weak instability overall, and likelihood that the boundary layer remains stable, should preclude appreciable surface based thunderstorm potential. In any case, any potential for severe weather appears too low to warrant areal inclusion at this time. The surface front should continue eastward/southeastward across the U.S. days 6-7, but even weaker instability expected ahead of the boundary should preclude any appreciable severe weather potential. Read more

Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0409 AM CST Fri Jan 31 2025 Valid 031200Z - 081200Z ...DISCUSSION... A generally low-amplitude upper pattern, characterized by fast westerly flow aloft, is expected to prevail through the medium-range period. Global models are in reasonably good agreement with most of the synoptic-scale details into day 6 (Wednesday), after which differences become increasingly apparent. Days 4-5, the generally zonal flow pattern will persist, though some minor amplification of troughing over the West is expected Day 5, as the western Canada low drifts southward toward/into the Pacific Northwest. A rather subtle, lead shortwave trough is forecast to shift across southern California into the Desert Southwest late day 5 (Tuesday), and into the central Plains through the first half of day 6. An associated, central Plains surface low is forecast to evolve, with a cold front shifting out of the southern Rockies toward the southern Plains. With favorably strong flow aloft, any elevated destabilization sufficient to support convective development may result in some potential for hail across central portions of the country. At this time, however, expectations for weak instability overall, and likelihood that the boundary layer remains stable, should preclude appreciable surface based thunderstorm potential. In any case, any potential for severe weather appears too low to warrant areal inclusion at this time. The surface front should continue eastward/southeastward across the U.S. days 6-7, but even weaker instability expected ahead of the boundary should preclude any appreciable severe weather potential. Read more

Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0409 AM CST Fri Jan 31 2025 Valid 031200Z - 081200Z ...DISCUSSION... A generally low-amplitude upper pattern, characterized by fast westerly flow aloft, is expected to prevail through the medium-range period. Global models are in reasonably good agreement with most of the synoptic-scale details into day 6 (Wednesday), after which differences become increasingly apparent. Days 4-5, the generally zonal flow pattern will persist, though some minor amplification of troughing over the West is expected Day 5, as the western Canada low drifts southward toward/into the Pacific Northwest. A rather subtle, lead shortwave trough is forecast to shift across southern California into the Desert Southwest late day 5 (Tuesday), and into the central Plains through the first half of day 6. An associated, central Plains surface low is forecast to evolve, with a cold front shifting out of the southern Rockies toward the southern Plains. With favorably strong flow aloft, any elevated destabilization sufficient to support convective development may result in some potential for hail across central portions of the country. At this time, however, expectations for weak instability overall, and likelihood that the boundary layer remains stable, should preclude appreciable surface based thunderstorm potential. In any case, any potential for severe weather appears too low to warrant areal inclusion at this time. The surface front should continue eastward/southeastward across the U.S. days 6-7, but even weaker instability expected ahead of the boundary should preclude any appreciable severe weather potential. Read more

Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0409 AM CST Fri Jan 31 2025 Valid 031200Z - 081200Z ...DISCUSSION... A generally low-amplitude upper pattern, characterized by fast westerly flow aloft, is expected to prevail through the medium-range period. Global models are in reasonably good agreement with most of the synoptic-scale details into day 6 (Wednesday), after which differences become increasingly apparent. Days 4-5, the generally zonal flow pattern will persist, though some minor amplification of troughing over the West is expected Day 5, as the western Canada low drifts southward toward/into the Pacific Northwest. A rather subtle, lead shortwave trough is forecast to shift across southern California into the Desert Southwest late day 5 (Tuesday), and into the central Plains through the first half of day 6. An associated, central Plains surface low is forecast to evolve, with a cold front shifting out of the southern Rockies toward the southern Plains. With favorably strong flow aloft, any elevated destabilization sufficient to support convective development may result in some potential for hail across central portions of the country. At this time, however, expectations for weak instability overall, and likelihood that the boundary layer remains stable, should preclude appreciable surface based thunderstorm potential. In any case, any potential for severe weather appears too low to warrant areal inclusion at this time. The surface front should continue eastward/southeastward across the U.S. days 6-7, but even weaker instability expected ahead of the boundary should preclude any appreciable severe weather potential. Read more

SPC 0830Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0223 AM CST Fri Jan 31 2025 Valid 021200Z - 031200Z ...NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorm activity is forecast to be minimal at best across the U.S. on Sunday. ...Discussion... The large-scale pattern will remain largely unchanged on Sunday, with zonal flow aloft to remain in place. Disturbances in the flow field -- largely across the northern U.S. and southern Canada -- will continue advancing eastward through the period. A weak surface low is progged to lie near the Manitoba/North Dakota border early Sunday, associated with the aforementioned short-wave energy embedded in the fast westerlies aloft. This low is expected to deepen with time, as it shifts across Ontario, allowing continued southward advance of a cold front across the Intermountain West, and the Plains. With a reinforcing advance of Arctic air spreading southward behind the front, and high pressure prevailing south of the boundary, little risk for thunderstorms is evident through the period. ..Goss.. 01/31/2025 Read more

SPC 0830Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0223 AM CST Fri Jan 31 2025 Valid 021200Z - 031200Z ...NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorm activity is forecast to be minimal at best across the U.S. on Sunday. ...Discussion... The large-scale pattern will remain largely unchanged on Sunday, with zonal flow aloft to remain in place. Disturbances in the flow field -- largely across the northern U.S. and southern Canada -- will continue advancing eastward through the period. A weak surface low is progged to lie near the Manitoba/North Dakota border early Sunday, associated with the aforementioned short-wave energy embedded in the fast westerlies aloft. This low is expected to deepen with time, as it shifts across Ontario, allowing continued southward advance of a cold front across the Intermountain West, and the Plains. With a reinforcing advance of Arctic air spreading southward behind the front, and high pressure prevailing south of the boundary, little risk for thunderstorms is evident through the period. ..Goss.. 01/31/2025 Read more