Severe Storms

SPC 0830Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0227 AM CST Sat Feb 01 2025 Valid 031200Z - 041200Z ...NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorms are not expected across the U.S. on Monday. ...Discussion... Low-amplitude flow aloft is expected to prevail across the U.S. Monday, with the zonal regime trending weakly toward a western trough/central ridge/eastern trough configuration through the period. At the surface, a weak frontal wave along the slowly sagging baroclinic zone should shift out of the Plains across the Midwest through the day, and then across New England overnight. In the wake of this wave, the surface front will continue shifting southeastward/southward across the central and eastern states. By late in the period, the front should stretch from coastal New England southwestward to the Mid-Atlantic region, and then west-southwestward across the Tennessee and Lower Mississippi Valleys into Texas. While very weak low-level theta-e advection is expected ahead of the southward-moving front, moisture return should be quite insufficient to support appreciable destabilization. Meanwhile, with Arctic air spreading southward behind the front, a thermodynamic environment insufficient to support deep moist convection is forecast to persist across the U.S. through the period. ..Goss.. 02/01/2025 Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0200 AM CST Sat Feb 01 2025 Valid 021200Z - 031200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... ...Synopsis... Flow aloft will be primarily zonal over the central US through the weekend. In response, lee troughing will persist with west/southwesterly winds over much of the southern Plains. Some fire-weather risk is possible as area fuels dry with warm temperatures and low humidity. However, the overlap of strong winds and low humidity is not expected to support widespread critical concerns. ...Southern High Plains... At least modestly dry and windy conditions should continue into D2/Sunday as the lee low/trough remains over the High Plains. Continued warm and dry conditions will support further drying of area fuels. While zonal flow aloft is expected to be fairly strong, it is displaced to the north. This should keep surface wind speeds modest for much of that period across areas of the drier/more receptive fuels. Localized elevated fire-weather conditions are still possible from southeastern NM into West TX. However, conditions are not expected to be widespread enough to support an Elevated area. ..Lyons.. 02/01/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0200 AM CST Sat Feb 01 2025 Valid 021200Z - 031200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... ...Synopsis... Flow aloft will be primarily zonal over the central US through the weekend. In response, lee troughing will persist with west/southwesterly winds over much of the southern Plains. Some fire-weather risk is possible as area fuels dry with warm temperatures and low humidity. However, the overlap of strong winds and low humidity is not expected to support widespread critical concerns. ...Southern High Plains... At least modestly dry and windy conditions should continue into D2/Sunday as the lee low/trough remains over the High Plains. Continued warm and dry conditions will support further drying of area fuels. While zonal flow aloft is expected to be fairly strong, it is displaced to the north. This should keep surface wind speeds modest for much of that period across areas of the drier/more receptive fuels. Localized elevated fire-weather conditions are still possible from southeastern NM into West TX. However, conditions are not expected to be widespread enough to support an Elevated area. ..Lyons.. 02/01/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0200 AM CST Sat Feb 01 2025 Valid 021200Z - 031200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... ...Synopsis... Flow aloft will be primarily zonal over the central US through the weekend. In response, lee troughing will persist with west/southwesterly winds over much of the southern Plains. Some fire-weather risk is possible as area fuels dry with warm temperatures and low humidity. However, the overlap of strong winds and low humidity is not expected to support widespread critical concerns. ...Southern High Plains... At least modestly dry and windy conditions should continue into D2/Sunday as the lee low/trough remains over the High Plains. Continued warm and dry conditions will support further drying of area fuels. While zonal flow aloft is expected to be fairly strong, it is displaced to the north. This should keep surface wind speeds modest for much of that period across areas of the drier/more receptive fuels. Localized elevated fire-weather conditions are still possible from southeastern NM into West TX. However, conditions are not expected to be widespread enough to support an Elevated area. ..Lyons.. 02/01/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0200 AM CST Sat Feb 01 2025 Valid 021200Z - 031200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... ...Synopsis... Flow aloft will be primarily zonal over the central US through the weekend. In response, lee troughing will persist with west/southwesterly winds over much of the southern Plains. Some fire-weather risk is possible as area fuels dry with warm temperatures and low humidity. However, the overlap of strong winds and low humidity is not expected to support widespread critical concerns. ...Southern High Plains... At least modestly dry and windy conditions should continue into D2/Sunday as the lee low/trough remains over the High Plains. Continued warm and dry conditions will support further drying of area fuels. While zonal flow aloft is expected to be fairly strong, it is displaced to the north. This should keep surface wind speeds modest for much of that period across areas of the drier/more receptive fuels. Localized elevated fire-weather conditions are still possible from southeastern NM into West TX. However, conditions are not expected to be widespread enough to support an Elevated area. ..Lyons.. 02/01/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0200 AM CST Sat Feb 01 2025 Valid 021200Z - 031200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... ...Synopsis... Flow aloft will be primarily zonal over the central US through the weekend. In response, lee troughing will persist with west/southwesterly winds over much of the southern Plains. Some fire-weather risk is possible as area fuels dry with warm temperatures and low humidity. However, the overlap of strong winds and low humidity is not expected to support widespread critical concerns. ...Southern High Plains... At least modestly dry and windy conditions should continue into D2/Sunday as the lee low/trough remains over the High Plains. Continued warm and dry conditions will support further drying of area fuels. While zonal flow aloft is expected to be fairly strong, it is displaced to the north. This should keep surface wind speeds modest for much of that period across areas of the drier/more receptive fuels. Localized elevated fire-weather conditions are still possible from southeastern NM into West TX. However, conditions are not expected to be widespread enough to support an Elevated area. ..Lyons.. 02/01/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0159 AM CST Sat Feb 01 2025 Valid 011200Z - 021200Z ...Synopsis... Increasing zonal mid-level flow will become established over the CONUS in the wake of the trough departing the East Coast today. A lee low will strengthen surface winds over parts of the Plains where warm temperatures and low humidity are expected. This could allow for some fire-weather risk over the southern High Plains and NM, though fuels remain a complicating factor. ...Southern Plains and east-central NM... As mostly zonal flow aloft pass over the central Rockies, a lee low is expected to bolster south/southwesterly flow (15-25 mph) over parts of the southern High Plains. Diurnal heating, intermixed with some mid and high-level cloud cover, should favor above normal temperatures. The warm temperatures and westerly surface flow should support gusty winds and RH below 20% across much of the southern Plains. Meteorologically elevated (and localized near critical) conditions are possible across portions of the NM highlands, eastern TX Panhandles and western OK for several hours this afternoon. The primary uncertainty precluding larger and higher categorical areas remains the availability and receptiveness of area fuels. Drying has been noted over the last several days, especially within areas devoid of heavier precipitation (TX Panhandle and western OK). ERCs are expected to gradually increase above normal, but confidence in widespread critical fuels is currently low. Still, the expected drying of fuels could support a risk of increased initial attack within short-hour fuels. Thus, an Elevated area has been added where the best overlap of receptive fuels and sustained meteorological conditions are expected across TX/OK and NM. ..Lyons.. 02/01/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0159 AM CST Sat Feb 01 2025 Valid 011200Z - 021200Z ...Synopsis... Increasing zonal mid-level flow will become established over the CONUS in the wake of the trough departing the East Coast today. A lee low will strengthen surface winds over parts of the Plains where warm temperatures and low humidity are expected. This could allow for some fire-weather risk over the southern High Plains and NM, though fuels remain a complicating factor. ...Southern Plains and east-central NM... As mostly zonal flow aloft pass over the central Rockies, a lee low is expected to bolster south/southwesterly flow (15-25 mph) over parts of the southern High Plains. Diurnal heating, intermixed with some mid and high-level cloud cover, should favor above normal temperatures. The warm temperatures and westerly surface flow should support gusty winds and RH below 20% across much of the southern Plains. Meteorologically elevated (and localized near critical) conditions are possible across portions of the NM highlands, eastern TX Panhandles and western OK for several hours this afternoon. The primary uncertainty precluding larger and higher categorical areas remains the availability and receptiveness of area fuels. Drying has been noted over the last several days, especially within areas devoid of heavier precipitation (TX Panhandle and western OK). ERCs are expected to gradually increase above normal, but confidence in widespread critical fuels is currently low. Still, the expected drying of fuels could support a risk of increased initial attack within short-hour fuels. Thus, an Elevated area has been added where the best overlap of receptive fuels and sustained meteorological conditions are expected across TX/OK and NM. ..Lyons.. 02/01/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0159 AM CST Sat Feb 01 2025 Valid 011200Z - 021200Z ...Synopsis... Increasing zonal mid-level flow will become established over the CONUS in the wake of the trough departing the East Coast today. A lee low will strengthen surface winds over parts of the Plains where warm temperatures and low humidity are expected. This could allow for some fire-weather risk over the southern High Plains and NM, though fuels remain a complicating factor. ...Southern Plains and east-central NM... As mostly zonal flow aloft pass over the central Rockies, a lee low is expected to bolster south/southwesterly flow (15-25 mph) over parts of the southern High Plains. Diurnal heating, intermixed with some mid and high-level cloud cover, should favor above normal temperatures. The warm temperatures and westerly surface flow should support gusty winds and RH below 20% across much of the southern Plains. Meteorologically elevated (and localized near critical) conditions are possible across portions of the NM highlands, eastern TX Panhandles and western OK for several hours this afternoon. The primary uncertainty precluding larger and higher categorical areas remains the availability and receptiveness of area fuels. Drying has been noted over the last several days, especially within areas devoid of heavier precipitation (TX Panhandle and western OK). ERCs are expected to gradually increase above normal, but confidence in widespread critical fuels is currently low. Still, the expected drying of fuels could support a risk of increased initial attack within short-hour fuels. Thus, an Elevated area has been added where the best overlap of receptive fuels and sustained meteorological conditions are expected across TX/OK and NM. ..Lyons.. 02/01/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0159 AM CST Sat Feb 01 2025 Valid 011200Z - 021200Z ...Synopsis... Increasing zonal mid-level flow will become established over the CONUS in the wake of the trough departing the East Coast today. A lee low will strengthen surface winds over parts of the Plains where warm temperatures and low humidity are expected. This could allow for some fire-weather risk over the southern High Plains and NM, though fuels remain a complicating factor. ...Southern Plains and east-central NM... As mostly zonal flow aloft pass over the central Rockies, a lee low is expected to bolster south/southwesterly flow (15-25 mph) over parts of the southern High Plains. Diurnal heating, intermixed with some mid and high-level cloud cover, should favor above normal temperatures. The warm temperatures and westerly surface flow should support gusty winds and RH below 20% across much of the southern Plains. Meteorologically elevated (and localized near critical) conditions are possible across portions of the NM highlands, eastern TX Panhandles and western OK for several hours this afternoon. The primary uncertainty precluding larger and higher categorical areas remains the availability and receptiveness of area fuels. Drying has been noted over the last several days, especially within areas devoid of heavier precipitation (TX Panhandle and western OK). ERCs are expected to gradually increase above normal, but confidence in widespread critical fuels is currently low. Still, the expected drying of fuels could support a risk of increased initial attack within short-hour fuels. Thus, an Elevated area has been added where the best overlap of receptive fuels and sustained meteorological conditions are expected across TX/OK and NM. ..Lyons.. 02/01/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0159 AM CST Sat Feb 01 2025 Valid 011200Z - 021200Z ...Synopsis... Increasing zonal mid-level flow will become established over the CONUS in the wake of the trough departing the East Coast today. A lee low will strengthen surface winds over parts of the Plains where warm temperatures and low humidity are expected. This could allow for some fire-weather risk over the southern High Plains and NM, though fuels remain a complicating factor. ...Southern Plains and east-central NM... As mostly zonal flow aloft pass over the central Rockies, a lee low is expected to bolster south/southwesterly flow (15-25 mph) over parts of the southern High Plains. Diurnal heating, intermixed with some mid and high-level cloud cover, should favor above normal temperatures. The warm temperatures and westerly surface flow should support gusty winds and RH below 20% across much of the southern Plains. Meteorologically elevated (and localized near critical) conditions are possible across portions of the NM highlands, eastern TX Panhandles and western OK for several hours this afternoon. The primary uncertainty precluding larger and higher categorical areas remains the availability and receptiveness of area fuels. Drying has been noted over the last several days, especially within areas devoid of heavier precipitation (TX Panhandle and western OK). ERCs are expected to gradually increase above normal, but confidence in widespread critical fuels is currently low. Still, the expected drying of fuels could support a risk of increased initial attack within short-hour fuels. Thus, an Elevated area has been added where the best overlap of receptive fuels and sustained meteorological conditions are expected across TX/OK and NM. ..Lyons.. 02/01/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC 0700Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1252 AM CST Sat Feb 01 2025 Valid 021200Z - 031200Z ...NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorm activity is forecast to be minimal across the U.S. on Sunday. ...Synopsis... Zonal flow pattern aloft will prevail across the U.S. on Sunday. Farther north, a short-wave trough/low is forecast to move across/out of southern portions of the Canadian Prairie into/across Ontario through the period. In tandem with this Canadian feature, a surface low is progged to cross Ontario, reaching the James Bay vicinity by Monday morning. A trailing cold front will sharpen/shift slowly southward across the northern Intermountain region/northern Plains, and eventually southeastward across the Upper Great Lakes region. With continental/stable air forecast to prevail across the country, thunderstorms are not expected CONUS-wide. ..Goss.. 02/01/2025 Read more

SPC 0700Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1252 AM CST Sat Feb 01 2025 Valid 021200Z - 031200Z ...NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorm activity is forecast to be minimal across the U.S. on Sunday. ...Synopsis... Zonal flow pattern aloft will prevail across the U.S. on Sunday. Farther north, a short-wave trough/low is forecast to move across/out of southern portions of the Canadian Prairie into/across Ontario through the period. In tandem with this Canadian feature, a surface low is progged to cross Ontario, reaching the James Bay vicinity by Monday morning. A trailing cold front will sharpen/shift slowly southward across the northern Intermountain region/northern Plains, and eventually southeastward across the Upper Great Lakes region. With continental/stable air forecast to prevail across the country, thunderstorms are not expected CONUS-wide. ..Goss.. 02/01/2025 Read more

SPC 0700Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1252 AM CST Sat Feb 01 2025 Valid 021200Z - 031200Z ...NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorm activity is forecast to be minimal across the U.S. on Sunday. ...Synopsis... Zonal flow pattern aloft will prevail across the U.S. on Sunday. Farther north, a short-wave trough/low is forecast to move across/out of southern portions of the Canadian Prairie into/across Ontario through the period. In tandem with this Canadian feature, a surface low is progged to cross Ontario, reaching the James Bay vicinity by Monday morning. A trailing cold front will sharpen/shift slowly southward across the northern Intermountain region/northern Plains, and eventually southeastward across the Upper Great Lakes region. With continental/stable air forecast to prevail across the country, thunderstorms are not expected CONUS-wide. ..Goss.. 02/01/2025 Read more

SPC 0700Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1252 AM CST Sat Feb 01 2025 Valid 021200Z - 031200Z ...NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorm activity is forecast to be minimal across the U.S. on Sunday. ...Synopsis... Zonal flow pattern aloft will prevail across the U.S. on Sunday. Farther north, a short-wave trough/low is forecast to move across/out of southern portions of the Canadian Prairie into/across Ontario through the period. In tandem with this Canadian feature, a surface low is progged to cross Ontario, reaching the James Bay vicinity by Monday morning. A trailing cold front will sharpen/shift slowly southward across the northern Intermountain region/northern Plains, and eventually southeastward across the Upper Great Lakes region. With continental/stable air forecast to prevail across the country, thunderstorms are not expected CONUS-wide. ..Goss.. 02/01/2025 Read more

SPC 0700Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1252 AM CST Sat Feb 01 2025 Valid 021200Z - 031200Z ...NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorm activity is forecast to be minimal across the U.S. on Sunday. ...Synopsis... Zonal flow pattern aloft will prevail across the U.S. on Sunday. Farther north, a short-wave trough/low is forecast to move across/out of southern portions of the Canadian Prairie into/across Ontario through the period. In tandem with this Canadian feature, a surface low is progged to cross Ontario, reaching the James Bay vicinity by Monday morning. A trailing cold front will sharpen/shift slowly southward across the northern Intermountain region/northern Plains, and eventually southeastward across the Upper Great Lakes region. With continental/stable air forecast to prevail across the country, thunderstorms are not expected CONUS-wide. ..Goss.. 02/01/2025 Read more

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1150 PM CST Fri Jan 31 2025 Valid 011200Z - 021200Z ...NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorms are not expected across the continental U.S. today or tonight. ...DISCUSSION... At mid-levels, a trough will move into the western Atlantic today, as a trough moves through the central U.S., and flow becomes westerly over much of the nation. At the surface, high pressure will be entrenched across much of the central and eastern U.S., which will keep a dry and cool airmass in place. This will limit moisture return over the U.S. making conditions unfavorable for thunderstorms today and tonight. ..Broyles/Lyons.. 02/01/2025 Read more

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1150 PM CST Fri Jan 31 2025 Valid 011200Z - 021200Z ...NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorms are not expected across the continental U.S. today or tonight. ...DISCUSSION... At mid-levels, a trough will move into the western Atlantic today, as a trough moves through the central U.S., and flow becomes westerly over much of the nation. At the surface, high pressure will be entrenched across much of the central and eastern U.S., which will keep a dry and cool airmass in place. This will limit moisture return over the U.S. making conditions unfavorable for thunderstorms today and tonight. ..Broyles/Lyons.. 02/01/2025 Read more

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1150 PM CST Fri Jan 31 2025 Valid 011200Z - 021200Z ...NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorms are not expected across the continental U.S. today or tonight. ...DISCUSSION... At mid-levels, a trough will move into the western Atlantic today, as a trough moves through the central U.S., and flow becomes westerly over much of the nation. At the surface, high pressure will be entrenched across much of the central and eastern U.S., which will keep a dry and cool airmass in place. This will limit moisture return over the U.S. making conditions unfavorable for thunderstorms today and tonight. ..Broyles/Lyons.. 02/01/2025 Read more

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1150 PM CST Fri Jan 31 2025 Valid 011200Z - 021200Z ...NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorms are not expected across the continental U.S. today or tonight. ...DISCUSSION... At mid-levels, a trough will move into the western Atlantic today, as a trough moves through the central U.S., and flow becomes westerly over much of the nation. At the surface, high pressure will be entrenched across much of the central and eastern U.S., which will keep a dry and cool airmass in place. This will limit moisture return over the U.S. making conditions unfavorable for thunderstorms today and tonight. ..Broyles/Lyons.. 02/01/2025 Read more