Severe Storms

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0101 PM CST Sat Feb 01 2025 Valid 021200Z - 031200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... No changes to the ongoing forecast. ..Wendt.. 02/01/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0200 AM CST Sat Feb 01 2025/ ...Synopsis... Flow aloft will be primarily zonal over the central US through the weekend. In response, lee troughing will persist with west/southwesterly winds over much of the southern Plains. Some fire-weather risk is possible as area fuels dry with warm temperatures and low humidity. However, the overlap of strong winds and low humidity is not expected to support widespread critical concerns. ...Southern High Plains... At least modestly dry and windy conditions should continue into D2/Sunday as the lee low/trough remains over the High Plains. Continued warm and dry conditions will support further drying of area fuels. While zonal flow aloft is expected to be fairly strong, it is displaced to the north. This should keep surface wind speeds modest for much of that period across areas of the drier/more receptive fuels. Localized elevated fire-weather conditions are still possible from southeastern NM into West TX. However, conditions are not expected to be widespread enough to support an Elevated area. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0101 PM CST Sat Feb 01 2025 Valid 021200Z - 031200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... No changes to the ongoing forecast. ..Wendt.. 02/01/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0200 AM CST Sat Feb 01 2025/ ...Synopsis... Flow aloft will be primarily zonal over the central US through the weekend. In response, lee troughing will persist with west/southwesterly winds over much of the southern Plains. Some fire-weather risk is possible as area fuels dry with warm temperatures and low humidity. However, the overlap of strong winds and low humidity is not expected to support widespread critical concerns. ...Southern High Plains... At least modestly dry and windy conditions should continue into D2/Sunday as the lee low/trough remains over the High Plains. Continued warm and dry conditions will support further drying of area fuels. While zonal flow aloft is expected to be fairly strong, it is displaced to the north. This should keep surface wind speeds modest for much of that period across areas of the drier/more receptive fuels. Localized elevated fire-weather conditions are still possible from southeastern NM into West TX. However, conditions are not expected to be widespread enough to support an Elevated area. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0101 PM CST Sat Feb 01 2025 Valid 021200Z - 031200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... No changes to the ongoing forecast. ..Wendt.. 02/01/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0200 AM CST Sat Feb 01 2025/ ...Synopsis... Flow aloft will be primarily zonal over the central US through the weekend. In response, lee troughing will persist with west/southwesterly winds over much of the southern Plains. Some fire-weather risk is possible as area fuels dry with warm temperatures and low humidity. However, the overlap of strong winds and low humidity is not expected to support widespread critical concerns. ...Southern High Plains... At least modestly dry and windy conditions should continue into D2/Sunday as the lee low/trough remains over the High Plains. Continued warm and dry conditions will support further drying of area fuels. While zonal flow aloft is expected to be fairly strong, it is displaced to the north. This should keep surface wind speeds modest for much of that period across areas of the drier/more receptive fuels. Localized elevated fire-weather conditions are still possible from southeastern NM into West TX. However, conditions are not expected to be widespread enough to support an Elevated area. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0101 PM CST Sat Feb 01 2025 Valid 021200Z - 031200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... No changes to the ongoing forecast. ..Wendt.. 02/01/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0200 AM CST Sat Feb 01 2025/ ...Synopsis... Flow aloft will be primarily zonal over the central US through the weekend. In response, lee troughing will persist with west/southwesterly winds over much of the southern Plains. Some fire-weather risk is possible as area fuels dry with warm temperatures and low humidity. However, the overlap of strong winds and low humidity is not expected to support widespread critical concerns. ...Southern High Plains... At least modestly dry and windy conditions should continue into D2/Sunday as the lee low/trough remains over the High Plains. Continued warm and dry conditions will support further drying of area fuels. While zonal flow aloft is expected to be fairly strong, it is displaced to the north. This should keep surface wind speeds modest for much of that period across areas of the drier/more receptive fuels. Localized elevated fire-weather conditions are still possible from southeastern NM into West TX. However, conditions are not expected to be widespread enough to support an Elevated area. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0101 PM CST Sat Feb 01 2025 Valid 021200Z - 031200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... No changes to the ongoing forecast. ..Wendt.. 02/01/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0200 AM CST Sat Feb 01 2025/ ...Synopsis... Flow aloft will be primarily zonal over the central US through the weekend. In response, lee troughing will persist with west/southwesterly winds over much of the southern Plains. Some fire-weather risk is possible as area fuels dry with warm temperatures and low humidity. However, the overlap of strong winds and low humidity is not expected to support widespread critical concerns. ...Southern High Plains... At least modestly dry and windy conditions should continue into D2/Sunday as the lee low/trough remains over the High Plains. Continued warm and dry conditions will support further drying of area fuels. While zonal flow aloft is expected to be fairly strong, it is displaced to the north. This should keep surface wind speeds modest for much of that period across areas of the drier/more receptive fuels. Localized elevated fire-weather conditions are still possible from southeastern NM into West TX. However, conditions are not expected to be widespread enough to support an Elevated area. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0101 PM CST Sat Feb 01 2025 Valid 021200Z - 031200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... No changes to the ongoing forecast. ..Wendt.. 02/01/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0200 AM CST Sat Feb 01 2025/ ...Synopsis... Flow aloft will be primarily zonal over the central US through the weekend. In response, lee troughing will persist with west/southwesterly winds over much of the southern Plains. Some fire-weather risk is possible as area fuels dry with warm temperatures and low humidity. However, the overlap of strong winds and low humidity is not expected to support widespread critical concerns. ...Southern High Plains... At least modestly dry and windy conditions should continue into D2/Sunday as the lee low/trough remains over the High Plains. Continued warm and dry conditions will support further drying of area fuels. While zonal flow aloft is expected to be fairly strong, it is displaced to the north. This should keep surface wind speeds modest for much of that period across areas of the drier/more receptive fuels. Localized elevated fire-weather conditions are still possible from southeastern NM into West TX. However, conditions are not expected to be widespread enough to support an Elevated area. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1130 AM CST Sat Feb 01 2025 Valid 021200Z - 031200Z ...NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorm activity is forecast to be minimal across the U.S. on Sunday. ...Synopsis... A broad belt of generally westerly flow aloft will exist across the northern half of the CONUS on Sunday, with a leading wave moving across the OH Valley and Great Lakes. A strong midlevel temperature gradient will remain across WA, MT, and into the Dakotas and MN, as the base of a low-amplitude wave skirts those areas. At the surface, high pressure will exist over the East, and across the southern Plains and into the Southwest. Gradual low-level moistening may occur late toward TX with modest southerly winds developing beneath the midlevel westerlies. However, any appreciable instability will remain offshore. Otherwise, little to no instability is forecast to support thunderstorms across the CONUS. ..Jewell.. 02/01/2025 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1130 AM CST Sat Feb 01 2025 Valid 021200Z - 031200Z ...NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorm activity is forecast to be minimal across the U.S. on Sunday. ...Synopsis... A broad belt of generally westerly flow aloft will exist across the northern half of the CONUS on Sunday, with a leading wave moving across the OH Valley and Great Lakes. A strong midlevel temperature gradient will remain across WA, MT, and into the Dakotas and MN, as the base of a low-amplitude wave skirts those areas. At the surface, high pressure will exist over the East, and across the southern Plains and into the Southwest. Gradual low-level moistening may occur late toward TX with modest southerly winds developing beneath the midlevel westerlies. However, any appreciable instability will remain offshore. Otherwise, little to no instability is forecast to support thunderstorms across the CONUS. ..Jewell.. 02/01/2025 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1130 AM CST Sat Feb 01 2025 Valid 021200Z - 031200Z ...NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorm activity is forecast to be minimal across the U.S. on Sunday. ...Synopsis... A broad belt of generally westerly flow aloft will exist across the northern half of the CONUS on Sunday, with a leading wave moving across the OH Valley and Great Lakes. A strong midlevel temperature gradient will remain across WA, MT, and into the Dakotas and MN, as the base of a low-amplitude wave skirts those areas. At the surface, high pressure will exist over the East, and across the southern Plains and into the Southwest. Gradual low-level moistening may occur late toward TX with modest southerly winds developing beneath the midlevel westerlies. However, any appreciable instability will remain offshore. Otherwise, little to no instability is forecast to support thunderstorms across the CONUS. ..Jewell.. 02/01/2025 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1130 AM CST Sat Feb 01 2025 Valid 021200Z - 031200Z ...NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorm activity is forecast to be minimal across the U.S. on Sunday. ...Synopsis... A broad belt of generally westerly flow aloft will exist across the northern half of the CONUS on Sunday, with a leading wave moving across the OH Valley and Great Lakes. A strong midlevel temperature gradient will remain across WA, MT, and into the Dakotas and MN, as the base of a low-amplitude wave skirts those areas. At the surface, high pressure will exist over the East, and across the southern Plains and into the Southwest. Gradual low-level moistening may occur late toward TX with modest southerly winds developing beneath the midlevel westerlies. However, any appreciable instability will remain offshore. Otherwise, little to no instability is forecast to support thunderstorms across the CONUS. ..Jewell.. 02/01/2025 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1130 AM CST Sat Feb 01 2025 Valid 021200Z - 031200Z ...NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorm activity is forecast to be minimal across the U.S. on Sunday. ...Synopsis... A broad belt of generally westerly flow aloft will exist across the northern half of the CONUS on Sunday, with a leading wave moving across the OH Valley and Great Lakes. A strong midlevel temperature gradient will remain across WA, MT, and into the Dakotas and MN, as the base of a low-amplitude wave skirts those areas. At the surface, high pressure will exist over the East, and across the southern Plains and into the Southwest. Gradual low-level moistening may occur late toward TX with modest southerly winds developing beneath the midlevel westerlies. However, any appreciable instability will remain offshore. Otherwise, little to no instability is forecast to support thunderstorms across the CONUS. ..Jewell.. 02/01/2025 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1130 AM CST Sat Feb 01 2025 Valid 021200Z - 031200Z ...NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorm activity is forecast to be minimal across the U.S. on Sunday. ...Synopsis... A broad belt of generally westerly flow aloft will exist across the northern half of the CONUS on Sunday, with a leading wave moving across the OH Valley and Great Lakes. A strong midlevel temperature gradient will remain across WA, MT, and into the Dakotas and MN, as the base of a low-amplitude wave skirts those areas. At the surface, high pressure will exist over the East, and across the southern Plains and into the Southwest. Gradual low-level moistening may occur late toward TX with modest southerly winds developing beneath the midlevel westerlies. However, any appreciable instability will remain offshore. Otherwise, little to no instability is forecast to support thunderstorms across the CONUS. ..Jewell.. 02/01/2025 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1130 AM CST Sat Feb 01 2025 Valid 021200Z - 031200Z ...NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorm activity is forecast to be minimal across the U.S. on Sunday. ...Synopsis... A broad belt of generally westerly flow aloft will exist across the northern half of the CONUS on Sunday, with a leading wave moving across the OH Valley and Great Lakes. A strong midlevel temperature gradient will remain across WA, MT, and into the Dakotas and MN, as the base of a low-amplitude wave skirts those areas. At the surface, high pressure will exist over the East, and across the southern Plains and into the Southwest. Gradual low-level moistening may occur late toward TX with modest southerly winds developing beneath the midlevel westerlies. However, any appreciable instability will remain offshore. Otherwise, little to no instability is forecast to support thunderstorms across the CONUS. ..Jewell.. 02/01/2025 Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1036 AM CST Sat Feb 01 2025 Valid 011700Z - 021200Z No changes to the ongoing forecast. Locally elevated conditions remain possible across the southern High Plains. The strongest winds/gusts should shift eastward into more of Oklahoma with time as the low-level jet shifts eastward. Fuels and RH become more marginal with eastward extent, however. ..Wendt.. 02/01/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0159 AM CST Sat Feb 01 2025/ ...Synopsis... Increasing zonal mid-level flow will become established over the CONUS in the wake of the trough departing the East Coast today. A lee low will strengthen surface winds over parts of the Plains where warm temperatures and low humidity are expected. This could allow for some fire-weather risk over the southern High Plains and NM, though fuels remain a complicating factor. ...Southern Plains and east-central NM... As mostly zonal flow aloft pass over the central Rockies, a lee low is expected to bolster south/southwesterly flow (15-25 mph) over parts of the southern High Plains. Diurnal heating, intermixed with some mid and high-level cloud cover, should favor above normal temperatures. The warm temperatures and westerly surface flow should support gusty winds and RH below 20% across much of the southern Plains. Meteorologically elevated (and localized near critical) conditions are possible across portions of the NM highlands, eastern TX Panhandles and western OK for several hours this afternoon. The primary uncertainty precluding larger and higher categorical areas remains the availability and receptiveness of area fuels. Drying has been noted over the last several days, especially within areas devoid of heavier precipitation (TX Panhandle and western OK). ERCs are expected to gradually increase above normal, but confidence in widespread critical fuels is currently low. Still, the expected drying of fuels could support a risk of increased initial attack within short-hour fuels. Thus, an Elevated area has been added where the best overlap of receptive fuels and sustained meteorological conditions are expected across TX/OK and NM. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1036 AM CST Sat Feb 01 2025 Valid 011700Z - 021200Z No changes to the ongoing forecast. Locally elevated conditions remain possible across the southern High Plains. The strongest winds/gusts should shift eastward into more of Oklahoma with time as the low-level jet shifts eastward. Fuels and RH become more marginal with eastward extent, however. ..Wendt.. 02/01/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0159 AM CST Sat Feb 01 2025/ ...Synopsis... Increasing zonal mid-level flow will become established over the CONUS in the wake of the trough departing the East Coast today. A lee low will strengthen surface winds over parts of the Plains where warm temperatures and low humidity are expected. This could allow for some fire-weather risk over the southern High Plains and NM, though fuels remain a complicating factor. ...Southern Plains and east-central NM... As mostly zonal flow aloft pass over the central Rockies, a lee low is expected to bolster south/southwesterly flow (15-25 mph) over parts of the southern High Plains. Diurnal heating, intermixed with some mid and high-level cloud cover, should favor above normal temperatures. The warm temperatures and westerly surface flow should support gusty winds and RH below 20% across much of the southern Plains. Meteorologically elevated (and localized near critical) conditions are possible across portions of the NM highlands, eastern TX Panhandles and western OK for several hours this afternoon. The primary uncertainty precluding larger and higher categorical areas remains the availability and receptiveness of area fuels. Drying has been noted over the last several days, especially within areas devoid of heavier precipitation (TX Panhandle and western OK). ERCs are expected to gradually increase above normal, but confidence in widespread critical fuels is currently low. Still, the expected drying of fuels could support a risk of increased initial attack within short-hour fuels. Thus, an Elevated area has been added where the best overlap of receptive fuels and sustained meteorological conditions are expected across TX/OK and NM. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1036 AM CST Sat Feb 01 2025 Valid 011700Z - 021200Z No changes to the ongoing forecast. Locally elevated conditions remain possible across the southern High Plains. The strongest winds/gusts should shift eastward into more of Oklahoma with time as the low-level jet shifts eastward. Fuels and RH become more marginal with eastward extent, however. ..Wendt.. 02/01/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0159 AM CST Sat Feb 01 2025/ ...Synopsis... Increasing zonal mid-level flow will become established over the CONUS in the wake of the trough departing the East Coast today. A lee low will strengthen surface winds over parts of the Plains where warm temperatures and low humidity are expected. This could allow for some fire-weather risk over the southern High Plains and NM, though fuels remain a complicating factor. ...Southern Plains and east-central NM... As mostly zonal flow aloft pass over the central Rockies, a lee low is expected to bolster south/southwesterly flow (15-25 mph) over parts of the southern High Plains. Diurnal heating, intermixed with some mid and high-level cloud cover, should favor above normal temperatures. The warm temperatures and westerly surface flow should support gusty winds and RH below 20% across much of the southern Plains. Meteorologically elevated (and localized near critical) conditions are possible across portions of the NM highlands, eastern TX Panhandles and western OK for several hours this afternoon. The primary uncertainty precluding larger and higher categorical areas remains the availability and receptiveness of area fuels. Drying has been noted over the last several days, especially within areas devoid of heavier precipitation (TX Panhandle and western OK). ERCs are expected to gradually increase above normal, but confidence in widespread critical fuels is currently low. Still, the expected drying of fuels could support a risk of increased initial attack within short-hour fuels. Thus, an Elevated area has been added where the best overlap of receptive fuels and sustained meteorological conditions are expected across TX/OK and NM. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1036 AM CST Sat Feb 01 2025 Valid 011700Z - 021200Z No changes to the ongoing forecast. Locally elevated conditions remain possible across the southern High Plains. The strongest winds/gusts should shift eastward into more of Oklahoma with time as the low-level jet shifts eastward. Fuels and RH become more marginal with eastward extent, however. ..Wendt.. 02/01/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0159 AM CST Sat Feb 01 2025/ ...Synopsis... Increasing zonal mid-level flow will become established over the CONUS in the wake of the trough departing the East Coast today. A lee low will strengthen surface winds over parts of the Plains where warm temperatures and low humidity are expected. This could allow for some fire-weather risk over the southern High Plains and NM, though fuels remain a complicating factor. ...Southern Plains and east-central NM... As mostly zonal flow aloft pass over the central Rockies, a lee low is expected to bolster south/southwesterly flow (15-25 mph) over parts of the southern High Plains. Diurnal heating, intermixed with some mid and high-level cloud cover, should favor above normal temperatures. The warm temperatures and westerly surface flow should support gusty winds and RH below 20% across much of the southern Plains. Meteorologically elevated (and localized near critical) conditions are possible across portions of the NM highlands, eastern TX Panhandles and western OK for several hours this afternoon. The primary uncertainty precluding larger and higher categorical areas remains the availability and receptiveness of area fuels. Drying has been noted over the last several days, especially within areas devoid of heavier precipitation (TX Panhandle and western OK). ERCs are expected to gradually increase above normal, but confidence in widespread critical fuels is currently low. Still, the expected drying of fuels could support a risk of increased initial attack within short-hour fuels. Thus, an Elevated area has been added where the best overlap of receptive fuels and sustained meteorological conditions are expected across TX/OK and NM. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1036 AM CST Sat Feb 01 2025 Valid 011700Z - 021200Z No changes to the ongoing forecast. Locally elevated conditions remain possible across the southern High Plains. The strongest winds/gusts should shift eastward into more of Oklahoma with time as the low-level jet shifts eastward. Fuels and RH become more marginal with eastward extent, however. ..Wendt.. 02/01/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0159 AM CST Sat Feb 01 2025/ ...Synopsis... Increasing zonal mid-level flow will become established over the CONUS in the wake of the trough departing the East Coast today. A lee low will strengthen surface winds over parts of the Plains where warm temperatures and low humidity are expected. This could allow for some fire-weather risk over the southern High Plains and NM, though fuels remain a complicating factor. ...Southern Plains and east-central NM... As mostly zonal flow aloft pass over the central Rockies, a lee low is expected to bolster south/southwesterly flow (15-25 mph) over parts of the southern High Plains. Diurnal heating, intermixed with some mid and high-level cloud cover, should favor above normal temperatures. The warm temperatures and westerly surface flow should support gusty winds and RH below 20% across much of the southern Plains. Meteorologically elevated (and localized near critical) conditions are possible across portions of the NM highlands, eastern TX Panhandles and western OK for several hours this afternoon. The primary uncertainty precluding larger and higher categorical areas remains the availability and receptiveness of area fuels. Drying has been noted over the last several days, especially within areas devoid of heavier precipitation (TX Panhandle and western OK). ERCs are expected to gradually increase above normal, but confidence in widespread critical fuels is currently low. Still, the expected drying of fuels could support a risk of increased initial attack within short-hour fuels. Thus, an Elevated area has been added where the best overlap of receptive fuels and sustained meteorological conditions are expected across TX/OK and NM. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1036 AM CST Sat Feb 01 2025 Valid 011700Z - 021200Z No changes to the ongoing forecast. Locally elevated conditions remain possible across the southern High Plains. The strongest winds/gusts should shift eastward into more of Oklahoma with time as the low-level jet shifts eastward. Fuels and RH become more marginal with eastward extent, however. ..Wendt.. 02/01/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0159 AM CST Sat Feb 01 2025/ ...Synopsis... Increasing zonal mid-level flow will become established over the CONUS in the wake of the trough departing the East Coast today. A lee low will strengthen surface winds over parts of the Plains where warm temperatures and low humidity are expected. This could allow for some fire-weather risk over the southern High Plains and NM, though fuels remain a complicating factor. ...Southern Plains and east-central NM... As mostly zonal flow aloft pass over the central Rockies, a lee low is expected to bolster south/southwesterly flow (15-25 mph) over parts of the southern High Plains. Diurnal heating, intermixed with some mid and high-level cloud cover, should favor above normal temperatures. The warm temperatures and westerly surface flow should support gusty winds and RH below 20% across much of the southern Plains. Meteorologically elevated (and localized near critical) conditions are possible across portions of the NM highlands, eastern TX Panhandles and western OK for several hours this afternoon. The primary uncertainty precluding larger and higher categorical areas remains the availability and receptiveness of area fuels. Drying has been noted over the last several days, especially within areas devoid of heavier precipitation (TX Panhandle and western OK). ERCs are expected to gradually increase above normal, but confidence in widespread critical fuels is currently low. Still, the expected drying of fuels could support a risk of increased initial attack within short-hour fuels. Thus, an Elevated area has been added where the best overlap of receptive fuels and sustained meteorological conditions are expected across TX/OK and NM. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1036 AM CST Sat Feb 01 2025 Valid 011700Z - 021200Z No changes to the ongoing forecast. Locally elevated conditions remain possible across the southern High Plains. The strongest winds/gusts should shift eastward into more of Oklahoma with time as the low-level jet shifts eastward. Fuels and RH become more marginal with eastward extent, however. ..Wendt.. 02/01/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0159 AM CST Sat Feb 01 2025/ ...Synopsis... Increasing zonal mid-level flow will become established over the CONUS in the wake of the trough departing the East Coast today. A lee low will strengthen surface winds over parts of the Plains where warm temperatures and low humidity are expected. This could allow for some fire-weather risk over the southern High Plains and NM, though fuels remain a complicating factor. ...Southern Plains and east-central NM... As mostly zonal flow aloft pass over the central Rockies, a lee low is expected to bolster south/southwesterly flow (15-25 mph) over parts of the southern High Plains. Diurnal heating, intermixed with some mid and high-level cloud cover, should favor above normal temperatures. The warm temperatures and westerly surface flow should support gusty winds and RH below 20% across much of the southern Plains. Meteorologically elevated (and localized near critical) conditions are possible across portions of the NM highlands, eastern TX Panhandles and western OK for several hours this afternoon. The primary uncertainty precluding larger and higher categorical areas remains the availability and receptiveness of area fuels. Drying has been noted over the last several days, especially within areas devoid of heavier precipitation (TX Panhandle and western OK). ERCs are expected to gradually increase above normal, but confidence in widespread critical fuels is currently low. Still, the expected drying of fuels could support a risk of increased initial attack within short-hour fuels. Thus, an Elevated area has been added where the best overlap of receptive fuels and sustained meteorological conditions are expected across TX/OK and NM. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more