Severe Storms

SPC 1930Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0117 PM CST Sun Feb 02 2025 Valid 041200Z - 051200Z ...NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorm potential appears low overall on Tuesday. ...Synopsis... On Tuesday, a broad region of height falls will occur across the West, with a southern-stream wave moving across the Four Corners states and a strong shortwave trough approaching the Pacific Northwest late. Meanwhile, the southern periphery of an eastern Canada trough will remain over the Northeast. At the surface, high pressure will stretch from the northern Rockies into the Great Lakes and Midwest, with a stalled front roughly from Ok into TN. South of this front, southerly winds will maintain low to mid 60s F dewpoints over eastern TX and into LA and southern AR. This air mass will remain capped with little to no instability present. Otherwise, while a plume of midlevel moisture will result in substantial precipitation from parts of central CA into ID, little if any elevated instability is forecast. ..Jewell.. 02/02/2025 Read more

SPC 1930Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0117 PM CST Sun Feb 02 2025 Valid 041200Z - 051200Z ...NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorm potential appears low overall on Tuesday. ...Synopsis... On Tuesday, a broad region of height falls will occur across the West, with a southern-stream wave moving across the Four Corners states and a strong shortwave trough approaching the Pacific Northwest late. Meanwhile, the southern periphery of an eastern Canada trough will remain over the Northeast. At the surface, high pressure will stretch from the northern Rockies into the Great Lakes and Midwest, with a stalled front roughly from Ok into TN. South of this front, southerly winds will maintain low to mid 60s F dewpoints over eastern TX and into LA and southern AR. This air mass will remain capped with little to no instability present. Otherwise, while a plume of midlevel moisture will result in substantial precipitation from parts of central CA into ID, little if any elevated instability is forecast. ..Jewell.. 02/02/2025 Read more

SPC 1930Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0117 PM CST Sun Feb 02 2025 Valid 041200Z - 051200Z ...NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorm potential appears low overall on Tuesday. ...Synopsis... On Tuesday, a broad region of height falls will occur across the West, with a southern-stream wave moving across the Four Corners states and a strong shortwave trough approaching the Pacific Northwest late. Meanwhile, the southern periphery of an eastern Canada trough will remain over the Northeast. At the surface, high pressure will stretch from the northern Rockies into the Great Lakes and Midwest, with a stalled front roughly from Ok into TN. South of this front, southerly winds will maintain low to mid 60s F dewpoints over eastern TX and into LA and southern AR. This air mass will remain capped with little to no instability present. Otherwise, while a plume of midlevel moisture will result in substantial precipitation from parts of central CA into ID, little if any elevated instability is forecast. ..Jewell.. 02/02/2025 Read more

SPC 1930Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0117 PM CST Sun Feb 02 2025 Valid 041200Z - 051200Z ...NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorm potential appears low overall on Tuesday. ...Synopsis... On Tuesday, a broad region of height falls will occur across the West, with a southern-stream wave moving across the Four Corners states and a strong shortwave trough approaching the Pacific Northwest late. Meanwhile, the southern periphery of an eastern Canada trough will remain over the Northeast. At the surface, high pressure will stretch from the northern Rockies into the Great Lakes and Midwest, with a stalled front roughly from Ok into TN. South of this front, southerly winds will maintain low to mid 60s F dewpoints over eastern TX and into LA and southern AR. This air mass will remain capped with little to no instability present. Otherwise, while a plume of midlevel moisture will result in substantial precipitation from parts of central CA into ID, little if any elevated instability is forecast. ..Jewell.. 02/02/2025 Read more

SPC 1930Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0117 PM CST Sun Feb 02 2025 Valid 041200Z - 051200Z ...NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorm potential appears low overall on Tuesday. ...Synopsis... On Tuesday, a broad region of height falls will occur across the West, with a southern-stream wave moving across the Four Corners states and a strong shortwave trough approaching the Pacific Northwest late. Meanwhile, the southern periphery of an eastern Canada trough will remain over the Northeast. At the surface, high pressure will stretch from the northern Rockies into the Great Lakes and Midwest, with a stalled front roughly from Ok into TN. South of this front, southerly winds will maintain low to mid 60s F dewpoints over eastern TX and into LA and southern AR. This air mass will remain capped with little to no instability present. Otherwise, while a plume of midlevel moisture will result in substantial precipitation from parts of central CA into ID, little if any elevated instability is forecast. ..Jewell.. 02/02/2025 Read more

SPC 1930Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0117 PM CST Sun Feb 02 2025 Valid 041200Z - 051200Z ...NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorm potential appears low overall on Tuesday. ...Synopsis... On Tuesday, a broad region of height falls will occur across the West, with a southern-stream wave moving across the Four Corners states and a strong shortwave trough approaching the Pacific Northwest late. Meanwhile, the southern periphery of an eastern Canada trough will remain over the Northeast. At the surface, high pressure will stretch from the northern Rockies into the Great Lakes and Midwest, with a stalled front roughly from Ok into TN. South of this front, southerly winds will maintain low to mid 60s F dewpoints over eastern TX and into LA and southern AR. This air mass will remain capped with little to no instability present. Otherwise, while a plume of midlevel moisture will result in substantial precipitation from parts of central CA into ID, little if any elevated instability is forecast. ..Jewell.. 02/02/2025 Read more

SPC 1930Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0117 PM CST Sun Feb 02 2025 Valid 041200Z - 051200Z ...NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorm potential appears low overall on Tuesday. ...Synopsis... On Tuesday, a broad region of height falls will occur across the West, with a southern-stream wave moving across the Four Corners states and a strong shortwave trough approaching the Pacific Northwest late. Meanwhile, the southern periphery of an eastern Canada trough will remain over the Northeast. At the surface, high pressure will stretch from the northern Rockies into the Great Lakes and Midwest, with a stalled front roughly from Ok into TN. South of this front, southerly winds will maintain low to mid 60s F dewpoints over eastern TX and into LA and southern AR. This air mass will remain capped with little to no instability present. Otherwise, while a plume of midlevel moisture will result in substantial precipitation from parts of central CA into ID, little if any elevated instability is forecast. ..Jewell.. 02/02/2025 Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0115 PM CST Sun Feb 02 2025 Valid 031200Z - 041200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... Locally elevated conditions are possible in portions of west-central Nevada ahead of a cold front and under strong flow aloft. Otherwise, the forecast remains on track, and please see the previous discussion for more details. ..Nauslar.. 02/02/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0157 AM CST Sun Feb 02 2025/ ...Synopsis... Predominately zonal mid-level flow will persist over much of the CONUS D2/Monday. Low-amplitude ridging within the zonal flow should slowly build over the central Plains supporting relatively quiescent weather. While occasional gusty surface winds are expected near a lee trough across the High Plains, overall fire-weather conditions appear limited. ...Southern Plains... Occasional dry and breezy conditions will continue across the southern Plains through Day2/Monday. A lee low and cold front over west TX could support occasional gusts to 15 mph. Dry conditions should also persist, though stronger southerly flow should increase humidity gradually. Additional drying of fuels is likely with little to no precipitation expected. This could support localized fire-weather potential across the southern High Plains, but widespread concerns are not expected. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0115 PM CST Sun Feb 02 2025 Valid 031200Z - 041200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... Locally elevated conditions are possible in portions of west-central Nevada ahead of a cold front and under strong flow aloft. Otherwise, the forecast remains on track, and please see the previous discussion for more details. ..Nauslar.. 02/02/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0157 AM CST Sun Feb 02 2025/ ...Synopsis... Predominately zonal mid-level flow will persist over much of the CONUS D2/Monday. Low-amplitude ridging within the zonal flow should slowly build over the central Plains supporting relatively quiescent weather. While occasional gusty surface winds are expected near a lee trough across the High Plains, overall fire-weather conditions appear limited. ...Southern Plains... Occasional dry and breezy conditions will continue across the southern Plains through Day2/Monday. A lee low and cold front over west TX could support occasional gusts to 15 mph. Dry conditions should also persist, though stronger southerly flow should increase humidity gradually. Additional drying of fuels is likely with little to no precipitation expected. This could support localized fire-weather potential across the southern High Plains, but widespread concerns are not expected. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0115 PM CST Sun Feb 02 2025 Valid 031200Z - 041200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... Locally elevated conditions are possible in portions of west-central Nevada ahead of a cold front and under strong flow aloft. Otherwise, the forecast remains on track, and please see the previous discussion for more details. ..Nauslar.. 02/02/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0157 AM CST Sun Feb 02 2025/ ...Synopsis... Predominately zonal mid-level flow will persist over much of the CONUS D2/Monday. Low-amplitude ridging within the zonal flow should slowly build over the central Plains supporting relatively quiescent weather. While occasional gusty surface winds are expected near a lee trough across the High Plains, overall fire-weather conditions appear limited. ...Southern Plains... Occasional dry and breezy conditions will continue across the southern Plains through Day2/Monday. A lee low and cold front over west TX could support occasional gusts to 15 mph. Dry conditions should also persist, though stronger southerly flow should increase humidity gradually. Additional drying of fuels is likely with little to no precipitation expected. This could support localized fire-weather potential across the southern High Plains, but widespread concerns are not expected. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0115 PM CST Sun Feb 02 2025 Valid 031200Z - 041200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... Locally elevated conditions are possible in portions of west-central Nevada ahead of a cold front and under strong flow aloft. Otherwise, the forecast remains on track, and please see the previous discussion for more details. ..Nauslar.. 02/02/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0157 AM CST Sun Feb 02 2025/ ...Synopsis... Predominately zonal mid-level flow will persist over much of the CONUS D2/Monday. Low-amplitude ridging within the zonal flow should slowly build over the central Plains supporting relatively quiescent weather. While occasional gusty surface winds are expected near a lee trough across the High Plains, overall fire-weather conditions appear limited. ...Southern Plains... Occasional dry and breezy conditions will continue across the southern Plains through Day2/Monday. A lee low and cold front over west TX could support occasional gusts to 15 mph. Dry conditions should also persist, though stronger southerly flow should increase humidity gradually. Additional drying of fuels is likely with little to no precipitation expected. This could support localized fire-weather potential across the southern High Plains, but widespread concerns are not expected. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0115 PM CST Sun Feb 02 2025 Valid 031200Z - 041200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... Locally elevated conditions are possible in portions of west-central Nevada ahead of a cold front and under strong flow aloft. Otherwise, the forecast remains on track, and please see the previous discussion for more details. ..Nauslar.. 02/02/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0157 AM CST Sun Feb 02 2025/ ...Synopsis... Predominately zonal mid-level flow will persist over much of the CONUS D2/Monday. Low-amplitude ridging within the zonal flow should slowly build over the central Plains supporting relatively quiescent weather. While occasional gusty surface winds are expected near a lee trough across the High Plains, overall fire-weather conditions appear limited. ...Southern Plains... Occasional dry and breezy conditions will continue across the southern Plains through Day2/Monday. A lee low and cold front over west TX could support occasional gusts to 15 mph. Dry conditions should also persist, though stronger southerly flow should increase humidity gradually. Additional drying of fuels is likely with little to no precipitation expected. This could support localized fire-weather potential across the southern High Plains, but widespread concerns are not expected. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0115 PM CST Sun Feb 02 2025 Valid 031200Z - 041200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... Locally elevated conditions are possible in portions of west-central Nevada ahead of a cold front and under strong flow aloft. Otherwise, the forecast remains on track, and please see the previous discussion for more details. ..Nauslar.. 02/02/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0157 AM CST Sun Feb 02 2025/ ...Synopsis... Predominately zonal mid-level flow will persist over much of the CONUS D2/Monday. Low-amplitude ridging within the zonal flow should slowly build over the central Plains supporting relatively quiescent weather. While occasional gusty surface winds are expected near a lee trough across the High Plains, overall fire-weather conditions appear limited. ...Southern Plains... Occasional dry and breezy conditions will continue across the southern Plains through Day2/Monday. A lee low and cold front over west TX could support occasional gusts to 15 mph. Dry conditions should also persist, though stronger southerly flow should increase humidity gradually. Additional drying of fuels is likely with little to no precipitation expected. This could support localized fire-weather potential across the southern High Plains, but widespread concerns are not expected. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1128 AM CST Sun Feb 02 2025 Valid 031200Z - 041200Z ...NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Little if any thunder potential is evident across the U.S. on Monday. ...Synopsis... Zonal flow on Monday will gradually amplify a bit as a broad upper trough takes shape across the West with an upper low off the coastal Pacific Northwest. Meanwhile, a low-amplitude feature will move across the Great Lakes and into the Northeast. At the surface, the air mass will remain largely stable over land, with high pressure over the Southeast. Limited elevated instability may develop within a midlevel moist plume which will affect northern into central CA. However, overall thunderstorm chances appear below threshold. Elsewhere, low-level moisture will return into parts of TX toward the ArkLaTex with low to mid 60s F dewpoints. However, this air mass should remain capped beneath warm midlevel temperatures. ..Jewell.. 02/02/2025 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1128 AM CST Sun Feb 02 2025 Valid 031200Z - 041200Z ...NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Little if any thunder potential is evident across the U.S. on Monday. ...Synopsis... Zonal flow on Monday will gradually amplify a bit as a broad upper trough takes shape across the West with an upper low off the coastal Pacific Northwest. Meanwhile, a low-amplitude feature will move across the Great Lakes and into the Northeast. At the surface, the air mass will remain largely stable over land, with high pressure over the Southeast. Limited elevated instability may develop within a midlevel moist plume which will affect northern into central CA. However, overall thunderstorm chances appear below threshold. Elsewhere, low-level moisture will return into parts of TX toward the ArkLaTex with low to mid 60s F dewpoints. However, this air mass should remain capped beneath warm midlevel temperatures. ..Jewell.. 02/02/2025 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1128 AM CST Sun Feb 02 2025 Valid 031200Z - 041200Z ...NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Little if any thunder potential is evident across the U.S. on Monday. ...Synopsis... Zonal flow on Monday will gradually amplify a bit as a broad upper trough takes shape across the West with an upper low off the coastal Pacific Northwest. Meanwhile, a low-amplitude feature will move across the Great Lakes and into the Northeast. At the surface, the air mass will remain largely stable over land, with high pressure over the Southeast. Limited elevated instability may develop within a midlevel moist plume which will affect northern into central CA. However, overall thunderstorm chances appear below threshold. Elsewhere, low-level moisture will return into parts of TX toward the ArkLaTex with low to mid 60s F dewpoints. However, this air mass should remain capped beneath warm midlevel temperatures. ..Jewell.. 02/02/2025 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1128 AM CST Sun Feb 02 2025 Valid 031200Z - 041200Z ...NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Little if any thunder potential is evident across the U.S. on Monday. ...Synopsis... Zonal flow on Monday will gradually amplify a bit as a broad upper trough takes shape across the West with an upper low off the coastal Pacific Northwest. Meanwhile, a low-amplitude feature will move across the Great Lakes and into the Northeast. At the surface, the air mass will remain largely stable over land, with high pressure over the Southeast. Limited elevated instability may develop within a midlevel moist plume which will affect northern into central CA. However, overall thunderstorm chances appear below threshold. Elsewhere, low-level moisture will return into parts of TX toward the ArkLaTex with low to mid 60s F dewpoints. However, this air mass should remain capped beneath warm midlevel temperatures. ..Jewell.. 02/02/2025 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1128 AM CST Sun Feb 02 2025 Valid 031200Z - 041200Z ...NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Little if any thunder potential is evident across the U.S. on Monday. ...Synopsis... Zonal flow on Monday will gradually amplify a bit as a broad upper trough takes shape across the West with an upper low off the coastal Pacific Northwest. Meanwhile, a low-amplitude feature will move across the Great Lakes and into the Northeast. At the surface, the air mass will remain largely stable over land, with high pressure over the Southeast. Limited elevated instability may develop within a midlevel moist plume which will affect northern into central CA. However, overall thunderstorm chances appear below threshold. Elsewhere, low-level moisture will return into parts of TX toward the ArkLaTex with low to mid 60s F dewpoints. However, this air mass should remain capped beneath warm midlevel temperatures. ..Jewell.. 02/02/2025 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1128 AM CST Sun Feb 02 2025 Valid 031200Z - 041200Z ...NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Little if any thunder potential is evident across the U.S. on Monday. ...Synopsis... Zonal flow on Monday will gradually amplify a bit as a broad upper trough takes shape across the West with an upper low off the coastal Pacific Northwest. Meanwhile, a low-amplitude feature will move across the Great Lakes and into the Northeast. At the surface, the air mass will remain largely stable over land, with high pressure over the Southeast. Limited elevated instability may develop within a midlevel moist plume which will affect northern into central CA. However, overall thunderstorm chances appear below threshold. Elsewhere, low-level moisture will return into parts of TX toward the ArkLaTex with low to mid 60s F dewpoints. However, this air mass should remain capped beneath warm midlevel temperatures. ..Jewell.. 02/02/2025 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1128 AM CST Sun Feb 02 2025 Valid 031200Z - 041200Z ...NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Little if any thunder potential is evident across the U.S. on Monday. ...Synopsis... Zonal flow on Monday will gradually amplify a bit as a broad upper trough takes shape across the West with an upper low off the coastal Pacific Northwest. Meanwhile, a low-amplitude feature will move across the Great Lakes and into the Northeast. At the surface, the air mass will remain largely stable over land, with high pressure over the Southeast. Limited elevated instability may develop within a midlevel moist plume which will affect northern into central CA. However, overall thunderstorm chances appear below threshold. Elsewhere, low-level moisture will return into parts of TX toward the ArkLaTex with low to mid 60s F dewpoints. However, this air mass should remain capped beneath warm midlevel temperatures. ..Jewell.. 02/02/2025 Read more