Severe Storms

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1008 AM CST Sun Feb 02 2025 Valid 021630Z - 031200Z ...NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorms are not forecast across the contiguous United States through tonight. Stable conditions will prevail across the Lower 48 states, precluding thunderstorms today and tonight. ..Hart/Squitieri.. 02/02/2025 Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1008 AM CST Sun Feb 02 2025 Valid 021630Z - 031200Z ...NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorms are not forecast across the contiguous United States through tonight. Stable conditions will prevail across the Lower 48 states, precluding thunderstorms today and tonight. ..Hart/Squitieri.. 02/02/2025 Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1008 AM CST Sun Feb 02 2025 Valid 021630Z - 031200Z ...NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorms are not forecast across the contiguous United States through tonight. Stable conditions will prevail across the Lower 48 states, precluding thunderstorms today and tonight. ..Hart/Squitieri.. 02/02/2025 Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1008 AM CST Sun Feb 02 2025 Valid 021630Z - 031200Z ...NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorms are not forecast across the contiguous United States through tonight. Stable conditions will prevail across the Lower 48 states, precluding thunderstorms today and tonight. ..Hart/Squitieri.. 02/02/2025 Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1008 AM CST Sun Feb 02 2025 Valid 021630Z - 031200Z ...NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorms are not forecast across the contiguous United States through tonight. Stable conditions will prevail across the Lower 48 states, precluding thunderstorms today and tonight. ..Hart/Squitieri.. 02/02/2025 Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1008 AM CST Sun Feb 02 2025 Valid 021630Z - 031200Z ...NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorms are not forecast across the contiguous United States through tonight. Stable conditions will prevail across the Lower 48 states, precluding thunderstorms today and tonight. ..Hart/Squitieri.. 02/02/2025 Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0935 AM CST Sun Feb 02 2025 Valid 021700Z - 031200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... No changes are necessary, and please see the previous discussion for more details. ..Nauslar.. 02/02/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0155 AM CST Sun Feb 02 2025/ ...Synopsis... Increasing zonal flow aloft over the Rockies will aide in deepening a lee trough over much of the High Plains. Coincident with warm temperatures and dry surface conditions, gusty winds could support some localized fire-weather risk. However, the lack of stronger winds, and more modest fuel receptiveness should limit greater fire-weather concerns. ...Southern High Plains... Dry and breezy conditions should continue today as the lee low/trough remains over the High Plains. Continued warm and dry conditions will support further curing of area fuels. Stronger, but displaced zonal flow aloft should keep surface wind speeds modest for much of that period across areas of the drier/more receptive fuels. Localized elevated fire-weather conditions are still possible from southeastern NM into West TX. However, conditions are not expected to be widespread enough to support an Elevated area. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0935 AM CST Sun Feb 02 2025 Valid 021700Z - 031200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... No changes are necessary, and please see the previous discussion for more details. ..Nauslar.. 02/02/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0155 AM CST Sun Feb 02 2025/ ...Synopsis... Increasing zonal flow aloft over the Rockies will aide in deepening a lee trough over much of the High Plains. Coincident with warm temperatures and dry surface conditions, gusty winds could support some localized fire-weather risk. However, the lack of stronger winds, and more modest fuel receptiveness should limit greater fire-weather concerns. ...Southern High Plains... Dry and breezy conditions should continue today as the lee low/trough remains over the High Plains. Continued warm and dry conditions will support further curing of area fuels. Stronger, but displaced zonal flow aloft should keep surface wind speeds modest for much of that period across areas of the drier/more receptive fuels. Localized elevated fire-weather conditions are still possible from southeastern NM into West TX. However, conditions are not expected to be widespread enough to support an Elevated area. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0935 AM CST Sun Feb 02 2025 Valid 021700Z - 031200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... No changes are necessary, and please see the previous discussion for more details. ..Nauslar.. 02/02/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0155 AM CST Sun Feb 02 2025/ ...Synopsis... Increasing zonal flow aloft over the Rockies will aide in deepening a lee trough over much of the High Plains. Coincident with warm temperatures and dry surface conditions, gusty winds could support some localized fire-weather risk. However, the lack of stronger winds, and more modest fuel receptiveness should limit greater fire-weather concerns. ...Southern High Plains... Dry and breezy conditions should continue today as the lee low/trough remains over the High Plains. Continued warm and dry conditions will support further curing of area fuels. Stronger, but displaced zonal flow aloft should keep surface wind speeds modest for much of that period across areas of the drier/more receptive fuels. Localized elevated fire-weather conditions are still possible from southeastern NM into West TX. However, conditions are not expected to be widespread enough to support an Elevated area. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0935 AM CST Sun Feb 02 2025 Valid 021700Z - 031200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... No changes are necessary, and please see the previous discussion for more details. ..Nauslar.. 02/02/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0155 AM CST Sun Feb 02 2025/ ...Synopsis... Increasing zonal flow aloft over the Rockies will aide in deepening a lee trough over much of the High Plains. Coincident with warm temperatures and dry surface conditions, gusty winds could support some localized fire-weather risk. However, the lack of stronger winds, and more modest fuel receptiveness should limit greater fire-weather concerns. ...Southern High Plains... Dry and breezy conditions should continue today as the lee low/trough remains over the High Plains. Continued warm and dry conditions will support further curing of area fuels. Stronger, but displaced zonal flow aloft should keep surface wind speeds modest for much of that period across areas of the drier/more receptive fuels. Localized elevated fire-weather conditions are still possible from southeastern NM into West TX. However, conditions are not expected to be widespread enough to support an Elevated area. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0935 AM CST Sun Feb 02 2025 Valid 021700Z - 031200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... No changes are necessary, and please see the previous discussion for more details. ..Nauslar.. 02/02/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0155 AM CST Sun Feb 02 2025/ ...Synopsis... Increasing zonal flow aloft over the Rockies will aide in deepening a lee trough over much of the High Plains. Coincident with warm temperatures and dry surface conditions, gusty winds could support some localized fire-weather risk. However, the lack of stronger winds, and more modest fuel receptiveness should limit greater fire-weather concerns. ...Southern High Plains... Dry and breezy conditions should continue today as the lee low/trough remains over the High Plains. Continued warm and dry conditions will support further curing of area fuels. Stronger, but displaced zonal flow aloft should keep surface wind speeds modest for much of that period across areas of the drier/more receptive fuels. Localized elevated fire-weather conditions are still possible from southeastern NM into West TX. However, conditions are not expected to be widespread enough to support an Elevated area. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0935 AM CST Sun Feb 02 2025 Valid 021700Z - 031200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... No changes are necessary, and please see the previous discussion for more details. ..Nauslar.. 02/02/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0155 AM CST Sun Feb 02 2025/ ...Synopsis... Increasing zonal flow aloft over the Rockies will aide in deepening a lee trough over much of the High Plains. Coincident with warm temperatures and dry surface conditions, gusty winds could support some localized fire-weather risk. However, the lack of stronger winds, and more modest fuel receptiveness should limit greater fire-weather concerns. ...Southern High Plains... Dry and breezy conditions should continue today as the lee low/trough remains over the High Plains. Continued warm and dry conditions will support further curing of area fuels. Stronger, but displaced zonal flow aloft should keep surface wind speeds modest for much of that period across areas of the drier/more receptive fuels. Localized elevated fire-weather conditions are still possible from southeastern NM into West TX. However, conditions are not expected to be widespread enough to support an Elevated area. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0656 AM CST Sun Feb 02 2025 Valid 021300Z - 031200Z ...NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorms are not forecast across the contiguous United States through tonight. ...Synopsis... A series of mid-level shortwave troughs will traverse the northern tier of states within a low-amplitude, progressive flow pattern. A surface ridge will extend across the East into the central Gulf states with a lee trough over the High Plains. Stable conditions will prevail across the Lower 48 states such that thunderstorms are not forecast. ..Smith/Bentley.. 02/02/2025 Read more

SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0656 AM CST Sun Feb 02 2025 Valid 021300Z - 031200Z ...NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorms are not forecast across the contiguous United States through tonight. ...Synopsis... A series of mid-level shortwave troughs will traverse the northern tier of states within a low-amplitude, progressive flow pattern. A surface ridge will extend across the East into the central Gulf states with a lee trough over the High Plains. Stable conditions will prevail across the Lower 48 states such that thunderstorms are not forecast. ..Smith/Bentley.. 02/02/2025 Read more

SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0656 AM CST Sun Feb 02 2025 Valid 021300Z - 031200Z ...NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorms are not forecast across the contiguous United States through tonight. ...Synopsis... A series of mid-level shortwave troughs will traverse the northern tier of states within a low-amplitude, progressive flow pattern. A surface ridge will extend across the East into the central Gulf states with a lee trough over the High Plains. Stable conditions will prevail across the Lower 48 states such that thunderstorms are not forecast. ..Smith/Bentley.. 02/02/2025 Read more

SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0656 AM CST Sun Feb 02 2025 Valid 021300Z - 031200Z ...NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorms are not forecast across the contiguous United States through tonight. ...Synopsis... A series of mid-level shortwave troughs will traverse the northern tier of states within a low-amplitude, progressive flow pattern. A surface ridge will extend across the East into the central Gulf states with a lee trough over the High Plains. Stable conditions will prevail across the Lower 48 states such that thunderstorms are not forecast. ..Smith/Bentley.. 02/02/2025 Read more

SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0656 AM CST Sun Feb 02 2025 Valid 021300Z - 031200Z ...NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorms are not forecast across the contiguous United States through tonight. ...Synopsis... A series of mid-level shortwave troughs will traverse the northern tier of states within a low-amplitude, progressive flow pattern. A surface ridge will extend across the East into the central Gulf states with a lee trough over the High Plains. Stable conditions will prevail across the Lower 48 states such that thunderstorms are not forecast. ..Smith/Bentley.. 02/02/2025 Read more

Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0351 AM CST Sun Feb 02 2025 Valid 051200Z - 101200Z ...DISCUSSION... Uncertainty remains high in the medium-range period, in terms of both pattern evolution, and attendant potential for severe weather. Models agree in general that early in the period, a quasi-zonal pattern aloft will prevail across the U.S., and a roughly west-to-east surface baroclinic zone will be in place from the central/southern Plains vicinity eastward to the Carolinas. Initially, any convective potential should remain limited, and largely confined to the cool side of the surface front. However, emerging model differences become evident, even early in the period, in terms of the eastward advance of various short-wave disturbances through the background westerlies. This progression of short-wave energy -- varying in degree from model to model -- results in correspondingly varying degrees of amplification of the flow field aloft, and also correspondingly, varying levels of mass response at the surface. Within the generally more amplified ECMWF, even early in the period but particularly through the middle and later stages of the forecast, likelihood for greater northward transport of higher theta-e air would exist, meaning greater potential for destabilization, and -- given flow aloft more than sufficient for organized convection -- greater potential for severe weather. With all of that said, given what appears to be a pattern of inherently low predictability, delineating areas of severe-weather potential would appear imprudent at this time, at the medium-range time frames. Read more

Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0351 AM CST Sun Feb 02 2025 Valid 051200Z - 101200Z ...DISCUSSION... Uncertainty remains high in the medium-range period, in terms of both pattern evolution, and attendant potential for severe weather. Models agree in general that early in the period, a quasi-zonal pattern aloft will prevail across the U.S., and a roughly west-to-east surface baroclinic zone will be in place from the central/southern Plains vicinity eastward to the Carolinas. Initially, any convective potential should remain limited, and largely confined to the cool side of the surface front. However, emerging model differences become evident, even early in the period, in terms of the eastward advance of various short-wave disturbances through the background westerlies. This progression of short-wave energy -- varying in degree from model to model -- results in correspondingly varying degrees of amplification of the flow field aloft, and also correspondingly, varying levels of mass response at the surface. Within the generally more amplified ECMWF, even early in the period but particularly through the middle and later stages of the forecast, likelihood for greater northward transport of higher theta-e air would exist, meaning greater potential for destabilization, and -- given flow aloft more than sufficient for organized convection -- greater potential for severe weather. With all of that said, given what appears to be a pattern of inherently low predictability, delineating areas of severe-weather potential would appear imprudent at this time, at the medium-range time frames. Read more

Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0351 AM CST Sun Feb 02 2025 Valid 051200Z - 101200Z ...DISCUSSION... Uncertainty remains high in the medium-range period, in terms of both pattern evolution, and attendant potential for severe weather. Models agree in general that early in the period, a quasi-zonal pattern aloft will prevail across the U.S., and a roughly west-to-east surface baroclinic zone will be in place from the central/southern Plains vicinity eastward to the Carolinas. Initially, any convective potential should remain limited, and largely confined to the cool side of the surface front. However, emerging model differences become evident, even early in the period, in terms of the eastward advance of various short-wave disturbances through the background westerlies. This progression of short-wave energy -- varying in degree from model to model -- results in correspondingly varying degrees of amplification of the flow field aloft, and also correspondingly, varying levels of mass response at the surface. Within the generally more amplified ECMWF, even early in the period but particularly through the middle and later stages of the forecast, likelihood for greater northward transport of higher theta-e air would exist, meaning greater potential for destabilization, and -- given flow aloft more than sufficient for organized convection -- greater potential for severe weather. With all of that said, given what appears to be a pattern of inherently low predictability, delineating areas of severe-weather potential would appear imprudent at this time, at the medium-range time frames. Read more