Severe Storms

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0330 PM CST Sat Feb 01 2025 Valid 031200Z - 091200Z An elongated upper-level ridge will begin to amplify early next week as a trough moves into the West. Model trends over the past 24 hours have generally decreased the amplitude of the western trough. This is most notable in the GFS. This impacts the southern extent of the stronger mid-level flow and, consequently, the strength of the lee trough anticipated towards next Wednesday. Of further note, the shortwave trough feature in the southern High Plains on Wednesday has sped up in the latest model guidance and is slightly less optimally timed during the afternoon as a result. At the surface, an initial cold air surge on Monday/Tuesday in the Plains will likely stall somewhere in Oklahoma and will not make much westward progress into the southern Rockies. Another cold air surge will push farther south and west on Thursday. ...Southern High Plains... A few days of at least modestly dry and breezy conditions are expected this weekend into early next week. Fuels will continue to dry further given the lack of precipitation recently. Given the model trends of late, confidence in critical fire weather remains low to moderate. Based on the ECMWF as well as ensemble guidance, 40% critical probabilities will be maintained as the pattern will still support elevated to locally critical fire weather. Of course, model trends will continue to be monitored over the next few days. ..Wendt.. 02/01/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0330 PM CST Sat Feb 01 2025 Valid 031200Z - 091200Z An elongated upper-level ridge will begin to amplify early next week as a trough moves into the West. Model trends over the past 24 hours have generally decreased the amplitude of the western trough. This is most notable in the GFS. This impacts the southern extent of the stronger mid-level flow and, consequently, the strength of the lee trough anticipated towards next Wednesday. Of further note, the shortwave trough feature in the southern High Plains on Wednesday has sped up in the latest model guidance and is slightly less optimally timed during the afternoon as a result. At the surface, an initial cold air surge on Monday/Tuesday in the Plains will likely stall somewhere in Oklahoma and will not make much westward progress into the southern Rockies. Another cold air surge will push farther south and west on Thursday. ...Southern High Plains... A few days of at least modestly dry and breezy conditions are expected this weekend into early next week. Fuels will continue to dry further given the lack of precipitation recently. Given the model trends of late, confidence in critical fire weather remains low to moderate. Based on the ECMWF as well as ensemble guidance, 40% critical probabilities will be maintained as the pattern will still support elevated to locally critical fire weather. Of course, model trends will continue to be monitored over the next few days. ..Wendt.. 02/01/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0330 PM CST Sat Feb 01 2025 Valid 031200Z - 091200Z An elongated upper-level ridge will begin to amplify early next week as a trough moves into the West. Model trends over the past 24 hours have generally decreased the amplitude of the western trough. This is most notable in the GFS. This impacts the southern extent of the stronger mid-level flow and, consequently, the strength of the lee trough anticipated towards next Wednesday. Of further note, the shortwave trough feature in the southern High Plains on Wednesday has sped up in the latest model guidance and is slightly less optimally timed during the afternoon as a result. At the surface, an initial cold air surge on Monday/Tuesday in the Plains will likely stall somewhere in Oklahoma and will not make much westward progress into the southern Rockies. Another cold air surge will push farther south and west on Thursday. ...Southern High Plains... A few days of at least modestly dry and breezy conditions are expected this weekend into early next week. Fuels will continue to dry further given the lack of precipitation recently. Given the model trends of late, confidence in critical fire weather remains low to moderate. Based on the ECMWF as well as ensemble guidance, 40% critical probabilities will be maintained as the pattern will still support elevated to locally critical fire weather. Of course, model trends will continue to be monitored over the next few days. ..Wendt.. 02/01/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0330 PM CST Sat Feb 01 2025 Valid 031200Z - 091200Z An elongated upper-level ridge will begin to amplify early next week as a trough moves into the West. Model trends over the past 24 hours have generally decreased the amplitude of the western trough. This is most notable in the GFS. This impacts the southern extent of the stronger mid-level flow and, consequently, the strength of the lee trough anticipated towards next Wednesday. Of further note, the shortwave trough feature in the southern High Plains on Wednesday has sped up in the latest model guidance and is slightly less optimally timed during the afternoon as a result. At the surface, an initial cold air surge on Monday/Tuesday in the Plains will likely stall somewhere in Oklahoma and will not make much westward progress into the southern Rockies. Another cold air surge will push farther south and west on Thursday. ...Southern High Plains... A few days of at least modestly dry and breezy conditions are expected this weekend into early next week. Fuels will continue to dry further given the lack of precipitation recently. Given the model trends of late, confidence in critical fire weather remains low to moderate. Based on the ECMWF as well as ensemble guidance, 40% critical probabilities will be maintained as the pattern will still support elevated to locally critical fire weather. Of course, model trends will continue to be monitored over the next few days. ..Wendt.. 02/01/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0330 PM CST Sat Feb 01 2025 Valid 031200Z - 091200Z An elongated upper-level ridge will begin to amplify early next week as a trough moves into the West. Model trends over the past 24 hours have generally decreased the amplitude of the western trough. This is most notable in the GFS. This impacts the southern extent of the stronger mid-level flow and, consequently, the strength of the lee trough anticipated towards next Wednesday. Of further note, the shortwave trough feature in the southern High Plains on Wednesday has sped up in the latest model guidance and is slightly less optimally timed during the afternoon as a result. At the surface, an initial cold air surge on Monday/Tuesday in the Plains will likely stall somewhere in Oklahoma and will not make much westward progress into the southern Rockies. Another cold air surge will push farther south and west on Thursday. ...Southern High Plains... A few days of at least modestly dry and breezy conditions are expected this weekend into early next week. Fuels will continue to dry further given the lack of precipitation recently. Given the model trends of late, confidence in critical fire weather remains low to moderate. Based on the ECMWF as well as ensemble guidance, 40% critical probabilities will be maintained as the pattern will still support elevated to locally critical fire weather. Of course, model trends will continue to be monitored over the next few days. ..Wendt.. 02/01/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0330 PM CST Sat Feb 01 2025 Valid 031200Z - 091200Z An elongated upper-level ridge will begin to amplify early next week as a trough moves into the West. Model trends over the past 24 hours have generally decreased the amplitude of the western trough. This is most notable in the GFS. This impacts the southern extent of the stronger mid-level flow and, consequently, the strength of the lee trough anticipated towards next Wednesday. Of further note, the shortwave trough feature in the southern High Plains on Wednesday has sped up in the latest model guidance and is slightly less optimally timed during the afternoon as a result. At the surface, an initial cold air surge on Monday/Tuesday in the Plains will likely stall somewhere in Oklahoma and will not make much westward progress into the southern Rockies. Another cold air surge will push farther south and west on Thursday. ...Southern High Plains... A few days of at least modestly dry and breezy conditions are expected this weekend into early next week. Fuels will continue to dry further given the lack of precipitation recently. Given the model trends of late, confidence in critical fire weather remains low to moderate. Based on the ECMWF as well as ensemble guidance, 40% critical probabilities will be maintained as the pattern will still support elevated to locally critical fire weather. Of course, model trends will continue to be monitored over the next few days. ..Wendt.. 02/01/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0148 PM CST Sat Feb 01 2025 Valid 012000Z - 021200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Isolated thunderstorms are possible today over the Olympic Peninsula of northwest Washington. ...20Z Update... No changes were made to the Day 1 Outlook. For details, see the previous discussion below. ..Weinman.. 02/01/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1006 AM CST Sat Feb 01 2025/ ...WA... Dry and stable conditions will preclude thunderstorms over most of the continental US today. The one exception will be in northwest WA, where strong/deep onshore flow and cold temperatures aloft (< -30C) will pose a risk of a few lightning flashes over the Olympic Peninsula. Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0148 PM CST Sat Feb 01 2025 Valid 012000Z - 021200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Isolated thunderstorms are possible today over the Olympic Peninsula of northwest Washington. ...20Z Update... No changes were made to the Day 1 Outlook. For details, see the previous discussion below. ..Weinman.. 02/01/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1006 AM CST Sat Feb 01 2025/ ...WA... Dry and stable conditions will preclude thunderstorms over most of the continental US today. The one exception will be in northwest WA, where strong/deep onshore flow and cold temperatures aloft (< -30C) will pose a risk of a few lightning flashes over the Olympic Peninsula. Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0148 PM CST Sat Feb 01 2025 Valid 012000Z - 021200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Isolated thunderstorms are possible today over the Olympic Peninsula of northwest Washington. ...20Z Update... No changes were made to the Day 1 Outlook. For details, see the previous discussion below. ..Weinman.. 02/01/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1006 AM CST Sat Feb 01 2025/ ...WA... Dry and stable conditions will preclude thunderstorms over most of the continental US today. The one exception will be in northwest WA, where strong/deep onshore flow and cold temperatures aloft (< -30C) will pose a risk of a few lightning flashes over the Olympic Peninsula. Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0148 PM CST Sat Feb 01 2025 Valid 012000Z - 021200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Isolated thunderstorms are possible today over the Olympic Peninsula of northwest Washington. ...20Z Update... No changes were made to the Day 1 Outlook. For details, see the previous discussion below. ..Weinman.. 02/01/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1006 AM CST Sat Feb 01 2025/ ...WA... Dry and stable conditions will preclude thunderstorms over most of the continental US today. The one exception will be in northwest WA, where strong/deep onshore flow and cold temperatures aloft (< -30C) will pose a risk of a few lightning flashes over the Olympic Peninsula. Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0148 PM CST Sat Feb 01 2025 Valid 012000Z - 021200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Isolated thunderstorms are possible today over the Olympic Peninsula of northwest Washington. ...20Z Update... No changes were made to the Day 1 Outlook. For details, see the previous discussion below. ..Weinman.. 02/01/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1006 AM CST Sat Feb 01 2025/ ...WA... Dry and stable conditions will preclude thunderstorms over most of the continental US today. The one exception will be in northwest WA, where strong/deep onshore flow and cold temperatures aloft (< -30C) will pose a risk of a few lightning flashes over the Olympic Peninsula. Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0148 PM CST Sat Feb 01 2025 Valid 012000Z - 021200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Isolated thunderstorms are possible today over the Olympic Peninsula of northwest Washington. ...20Z Update... No changes were made to the Day 1 Outlook. For details, see the previous discussion below. ..Weinman.. 02/01/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1006 AM CST Sat Feb 01 2025/ ...WA... Dry and stable conditions will preclude thunderstorms over most of the continental US today. The one exception will be in northwest WA, where strong/deep onshore flow and cold temperatures aloft (< -30C) will pose a risk of a few lightning flashes over the Olympic Peninsula. Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0148 PM CST Sat Feb 01 2025 Valid 012000Z - 021200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Isolated thunderstorms are possible today over the Olympic Peninsula of northwest Washington. ...20Z Update... No changes were made to the Day 1 Outlook. For details, see the previous discussion below. ..Weinman.. 02/01/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1006 AM CST Sat Feb 01 2025/ ...WA... Dry and stable conditions will preclude thunderstorms over most of the continental US today. The one exception will be in northwest WA, where strong/deep onshore flow and cold temperatures aloft (< -30C) will pose a risk of a few lightning flashes over the Olympic Peninsula. Read more

No Mesoscale Discussions are in effect as of Sat Feb 1 19:52:02 UTC 2025.

SPC 1930Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0102 PM CST Sat Feb 01 2025 Valid 031200Z - 041200Z ...NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorms are not expected across the U.S. on Monday. ...Synopsis... A mostly zonal flow regime will exist during the day on Monday, with some gradual height falls occurring late across the West and over the Northeast. A large area of high pressure over the Southeast will prevent appreciable destabilization over land, although limited/shallow moisture return will occur over TX with southerly surface winds. Elsewhere, a midlevel moist plume will result in precipitation across northern and central CA, but poor lapse rates will likely limit even elevated convective potential. ..Jewell.. 02/01/2025 Read more

SPC 1930Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0102 PM CST Sat Feb 01 2025 Valid 031200Z - 041200Z ...NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorms are not expected across the U.S. on Monday. ...Synopsis... A mostly zonal flow regime will exist during the day on Monday, with some gradual height falls occurring late across the West and over the Northeast. A large area of high pressure over the Southeast will prevent appreciable destabilization over land, although limited/shallow moisture return will occur over TX with southerly surface winds. Elsewhere, a midlevel moist plume will result in precipitation across northern and central CA, but poor lapse rates will likely limit even elevated convective potential. ..Jewell.. 02/01/2025 Read more

SPC 1930Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0102 PM CST Sat Feb 01 2025 Valid 031200Z - 041200Z ...NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorms are not expected across the U.S. on Monday. ...Synopsis... A mostly zonal flow regime will exist during the day on Monday, with some gradual height falls occurring late across the West and over the Northeast. A large area of high pressure over the Southeast will prevent appreciable destabilization over land, although limited/shallow moisture return will occur over TX with southerly surface winds. Elsewhere, a midlevel moist plume will result in precipitation across northern and central CA, but poor lapse rates will likely limit even elevated convective potential. ..Jewell.. 02/01/2025 Read more

SPC 1930Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0102 PM CST Sat Feb 01 2025 Valid 031200Z - 041200Z ...NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorms are not expected across the U.S. on Monday. ...Synopsis... A mostly zonal flow regime will exist during the day on Monday, with some gradual height falls occurring late across the West and over the Northeast. A large area of high pressure over the Southeast will prevent appreciable destabilization over land, although limited/shallow moisture return will occur over TX with southerly surface winds. Elsewhere, a midlevel moist plume will result in precipitation across northern and central CA, but poor lapse rates will likely limit even elevated convective potential. ..Jewell.. 02/01/2025 Read more

SPC 1930Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0102 PM CST Sat Feb 01 2025 Valid 031200Z - 041200Z ...NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorms are not expected across the U.S. on Monday. ...Synopsis... A mostly zonal flow regime will exist during the day on Monday, with some gradual height falls occurring late across the West and over the Northeast. A large area of high pressure over the Southeast will prevent appreciable destabilization over land, although limited/shallow moisture return will occur over TX with southerly surface winds. Elsewhere, a midlevel moist plume will result in precipitation across northern and central CA, but poor lapse rates will likely limit even elevated convective potential. ..Jewell.. 02/01/2025 Read more

SPC 1930Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0102 PM CST Sat Feb 01 2025 Valid 031200Z - 041200Z ...NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorms are not expected across the U.S. on Monday. ...Synopsis... A mostly zonal flow regime will exist during the day on Monday, with some gradual height falls occurring late across the West and over the Northeast. A large area of high pressure over the Southeast will prevent appreciable destabilization over land, although limited/shallow moisture return will occur over TX with southerly surface winds. Elsewhere, a midlevel moist plume will result in precipitation across northern and central CA, but poor lapse rates will likely limit even elevated convective potential. ..Jewell.. 02/01/2025 Read more