Severe Storms

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SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0246 PM CST Sat Jan 25 2025 Valid 271200Z - 021200Z An upper-level low will linger across the western US D3/Monday through D6/Thursday, bringing breezy conditions but also increasing potential for precipitation. A few lingering areas of locally Elevated fire weather concerns will be possible across far southeastern Arizona on D3/Monday. Across the northern Plains, dry and breezy conditions will be possible D3/Monday and D4/Tuesday across central South Dakota and Nebraska as the Great Lakes trough deepens with enhanced northwesterly flow aloft moving out of Canada. Though downslope warming and drying are forecast, latest guidance in this region suggests fuels are marginal. Late in the period next weekend, the upper-level low across the western US will eject into the Plains, bringing potential for windy/dry conditions across portions of the High Plains and Southern Plains. This may favor periods of elevated fire-weather conditions, though marginal fuels and chances for additional precipitation should limit the potential for critical conditions. ..Thornton.. 01/25/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0246 PM CST Sat Jan 25 2025 Valid 271200Z - 021200Z An upper-level low will linger across the western US D3/Monday through D6/Thursday, bringing breezy conditions but also increasing potential for precipitation. A few lingering areas of locally Elevated fire weather concerns will be possible across far southeastern Arizona on D3/Monday. Across the northern Plains, dry and breezy conditions will be possible D3/Monday and D4/Tuesday across central South Dakota and Nebraska as the Great Lakes trough deepens with enhanced northwesterly flow aloft moving out of Canada. Though downslope warming and drying are forecast, latest guidance in this region suggests fuels are marginal. Late in the period next weekend, the upper-level low across the western US will eject into the Plains, bringing potential for windy/dry conditions across portions of the High Plains and Southern Plains. This may favor periods of elevated fire-weather conditions, though marginal fuels and chances for additional precipitation should limit the potential for critical conditions. ..Thornton.. 01/25/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0246 PM CST Sat Jan 25 2025 Valid 271200Z - 021200Z An upper-level low will linger across the western US D3/Monday through D6/Thursday, bringing breezy conditions but also increasing potential for precipitation. A few lingering areas of locally Elevated fire weather concerns will be possible across far southeastern Arizona on D3/Monday. Across the northern Plains, dry and breezy conditions will be possible D3/Monday and D4/Tuesday across central South Dakota and Nebraska as the Great Lakes trough deepens with enhanced northwesterly flow aloft moving out of Canada. Though downslope warming and drying are forecast, latest guidance in this region suggests fuels are marginal. Late in the period next weekend, the upper-level low across the western US will eject into the Plains, bringing potential for windy/dry conditions across portions of the High Plains and Southern Plains. This may favor periods of elevated fire-weather conditions, though marginal fuels and chances for additional precipitation should limit the potential for critical conditions. ..Thornton.. 01/25/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0246 PM CST Sat Jan 25 2025 Valid 271200Z - 021200Z An upper-level low will linger across the western US D3/Monday through D6/Thursday, bringing breezy conditions but also increasing potential for precipitation. A few lingering areas of locally Elevated fire weather concerns will be possible across far southeastern Arizona on D3/Monday. Across the northern Plains, dry and breezy conditions will be possible D3/Monday and D4/Tuesday across central South Dakota and Nebraska as the Great Lakes trough deepens with enhanced northwesterly flow aloft moving out of Canada. Though downslope warming and drying are forecast, latest guidance in this region suggests fuels are marginal. Late in the period next weekend, the upper-level low across the western US will eject into the Plains, bringing potential for windy/dry conditions across portions of the High Plains and Southern Plains. This may favor periods of elevated fire-weather conditions, though marginal fuels and chances for additional precipitation should limit the potential for critical conditions. ..Thornton.. 01/25/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0246 PM CST Sat Jan 25 2025 Valid 271200Z - 021200Z An upper-level low will linger across the western US D3/Monday through D6/Thursday, bringing breezy conditions but also increasing potential for precipitation. A few lingering areas of locally Elevated fire weather concerns will be possible across far southeastern Arizona on D3/Monday. Across the northern Plains, dry and breezy conditions will be possible D3/Monday and D4/Tuesday across central South Dakota and Nebraska as the Great Lakes trough deepens with enhanced northwesterly flow aloft moving out of Canada. Though downslope warming and drying are forecast, latest guidance in this region suggests fuels are marginal. Late in the period next weekend, the upper-level low across the western US will eject into the Plains, bringing potential for windy/dry conditions across portions of the High Plains and Southern Plains. This may favor periods of elevated fire-weather conditions, though marginal fuels and chances for additional precipitation should limit the potential for critical conditions. ..Thornton.. 01/25/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0246 PM CST Sat Jan 25 2025 Valid 271200Z - 021200Z An upper-level low will linger across the western US D3/Monday through D6/Thursday, bringing breezy conditions but also increasing potential for precipitation. A few lingering areas of locally Elevated fire weather concerns will be possible across far southeastern Arizona on D3/Monday. Across the northern Plains, dry and breezy conditions will be possible D3/Monday and D4/Tuesday across central South Dakota and Nebraska as the Great Lakes trough deepens with enhanced northwesterly flow aloft moving out of Canada. Though downslope warming and drying are forecast, latest guidance in this region suggests fuels are marginal. Late in the period next weekend, the upper-level low across the western US will eject into the Plains, bringing potential for windy/dry conditions across portions of the High Plains and Southern Plains. This may favor periods of elevated fire-weather conditions, though marginal fuels and chances for additional precipitation should limit the potential for critical conditions. ..Thornton.. 01/25/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0246 PM CST Sat Jan 25 2025 Valid 271200Z - 021200Z An upper-level low will linger across the western US D3/Monday through D6/Thursday, bringing breezy conditions but also increasing potential for precipitation. A few lingering areas of locally Elevated fire weather concerns will be possible across far southeastern Arizona on D3/Monday. Across the northern Plains, dry and breezy conditions will be possible D3/Monday and D4/Tuesday across central South Dakota and Nebraska as the Great Lakes trough deepens with enhanced northwesterly flow aloft moving out of Canada. Though downslope warming and drying are forecast, latest guidance in this region suggests fuels are marginal. Late in the period next weekend, the upper-level low across the western US will eject into the Plains, bringing potential for windy/dry conditions across portions of the High Plains and Southern Plains. This may favor periods of elevated fire-weather conditions, though marginal fuels and chances for additional precipitation should limit the potential for critical conditions. ..Thornton.. 01/25/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0153 PM CST Sat Jan 25 2025 Valid 252000Z - 261200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are not forecast across the contiguous United States through tonight. ...20z Update... No changes were made to the prior outlook. Isolated thunderstorms will remain possible this afternoon and evening across portions of the central Valley of CA. Weak buoyancy (MUCAPE~ 100-200 J/kg) may support a few lightning flashes with low-topped storms beneath the advancing cold core upper low. Additional, mostly nocturnal, thunderstorms are possible over parts of the ArkLaTex late this evening and overnight. Increasing warm/moist advection ahead of a subtle southern stream perturbation may lead to widely scattered elevated convection into early Sunday. While some lightning is possible, the relatively limited ascent and buoyancy suggest coverage should remain fairly low, peaking around 10-20%. Severe storms are not expected given the relatively weak buoyancy and poor overlap with strong vertical shear. See the prior outlook for additional information. ..Lyons.. 01/25/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1020 AM CST Sat Jan 25 2025/ ...Discussion... Low amplitude nearly zonal westerlies will prevail over the majority of the CONUS to the east of an upper low centered over Nevada and northern California. Near this upper low, cold mid-level temperatures and steep lapse rates could contribute to a few lightning flashes with weak convection late this afternoon into evening. Elsewhere, increasing warm/moist advection will lead to scattered elevated convection late tonight/early Sunday across east Texas into northern Louisiana and ArkLaTex, some of which could produce lightning. Severe storms are not expected given weak buoyancy. Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0153 PM CST Sat Jan 25 2025 Valid 252000Z - 261200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are not forecast across the contiguous United States through tonight. ...20z Update... No changes were made to the prior outlook. Isolated thunderstorms will remain possible this afternoon and evening across portions of the central Valley of CA. Weak buoyancy (MUCAPE~ 100-200 J/kg) may support a few lightning flashes with low-topped storms beneath the advancing cold core upper low. Additional, mostly nocturnal, thunderstorms are possible over parts of the ArkLaTex late this evening and overnight. Increasing warm/moist advection ahead of a subtle southern stream perturbation may lead to widely scattered elevated convection into early Sunday. While some lightning is possible, the relatively limited ascent and buoyancy suggest coverage should remain fairly low, peaking around 10-20%. Severe storms are not expected given the relatively weak buoyancy and poor overlap with strong vertical shear. See the prior outlook for additional information. ..Lyons.. 01/25/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1020 AM CST Sat Jan 25 2025/ ...Discussion... Low amplitude nearly zonal westerlies will prevail over the majority of the CONUS to the east of an upper low centered over Nevada and northern California. Near this upper low, cold mid-level temperatures and steep lapse rates could contribute to a few lightning flashes with weak convection late this afternoon into evening. Elsewhere, increasing warm/moist advection will lead to scattered elevated convection late tonight/early Sunday across east Texas into northern Louisiana and ArkLaTex, some of which could produce lightning. Severe storms are not expected given weak buoyancy. Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0153 PM CST Sat Jan 25 2025 Valid 252000Z - 261200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are not forecast across the contiguous United States through tonight. ...20z Update... No changes were made to the prior outlook. Isolated thunderstorms will remain possible this afternoon and evening across portions of the central Valley of CA. Weak buoyancy (MUCAPE~ 100-200 J/kg) may support a few lightning flashes with low-topped storms beneath the advancing cold core upper low. Additional, mostly nocturnal, thunderstorms are possible over parts of the ArkLaTex late this evening and overnight. Increasing warm/moist advection ahead of a subtle southern stream perturbation may lead to widely scattered elevated convection into early Sunday. While some lightning is possible, the relatively limited ascent and buoyancy suggest coverage should remain fairly low, peaking around 10-20%. Severe storms are not expected given the relatively weak buoyancy and poor overlap with strong vertical shear. See the prior outlook for additional information. ..Lyons.. 01/25/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1020 AM CST Sat Jan 25 2025/ ...Discussion... Low amplitude nearly zonal westerlies will prevail over the majority of the CONUS to the east of an upper low centered over Nevada and northern California. Near this upper low, cold mid-level temperatures and steep lapse rates could contribute to a few lightning flashes with weak convection late this afternoon into evening. Elsewhere, increasing warm/moist advection will lead to scattered elevated convection late tonight/early Sunday across east Texas into northern Louisiana and ArkLaTex, some of which could produce lightning. Severe storms are not expected given weak buoyancy. Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0153 PM CST Sat Jan 25 2025 Valid 252000Z - 261200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are not forecast across the contiguous United States through tonight. ...20z Update... No changes were made to the prior outlook. Isolated thunderstorms will remain possible this afternoon and evening across portions of the central Valley of CA. Weak buoyancy (MUCAPE~ 100-200 J/kg) may support a few lightning flashes with low-topped storms beneath the advancing cold core upper low. Additional, mostly nocturnal, thunderstorms are possible over parts of the ArkLaTex late this evening and overnight. Increasing warm/moist advection ahead of a subtle southern stream perturbation may lead to widely scattered elevated convection into early Sunday. While some lightning is possible, the relatively limited ascent and buoyancy suggest coverage should remain fairly low, peaking around 10-20%. Severe storms are not expected given the relatively weak buoyancy and poor overlap with strong vertical shear. See the prior outlook for additional information. ..Lyons.. 01/25/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1020 AM CST Sat Jan 25 2025/ ...Discussion... Low amplitude nearly zonal westerlies will prevail over the majority of the CONUS to the east of an upper low centered over Nevada and northern California. Near this upper low, cold mid-level temperatures and steep lapse rates could contribute to a few lightning flashes with weak convection late this afternoon into evening. Elsewhere, increasing warm/moist advection will lead to scattered elevated convection late tonight/early Sunday across east Texas into northern Louisiana and ArkLaTex, some of which could produce lightning. Severe storms are not expected given weak buoyancy. Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0153 PM CST Sat Jan 25 2025 Valid 252000Z - 261200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are not forecast across the contiguous United States through tonight. ...20z Update... No changes were made to the prior outlook. Isolated thunderstorms will remain possible this afternoon and evening across portions of the central Valley of CA. Weak buoyancy (MUCAPE~ 100-200 J/kg) may support a few lightning flashes with low-topped storms beneath the advancing cold core upper low. Additional, mostly nocturnal, thunderstorms are possible over parts of the ArkLaTex late this evening and overnight. Increasing warm/moist advection ahead of a subtle southern stream perturbation may lead to widely scattered elevated convection into early Sunday. While some lightning is possible, the relatively limited ascent and buoyancy suggest coverage should remain fairly low, peaking around 10-20%. Severe storms are not expected given the relatively weak buoyancy and poor overlap with strong vertical shear. See the prior outlook for additional information. ..Lyons.. 01/25/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1020 AM CST Sat Jan 25 2025/ ...Discussion... Low amplitude nearly zonal westerlies will prevail over the majority of the CONUS to the east of an upper low centered over Nevada and northern California. Near this upper low, cold mid-level temperatures and steep lapse rates could contribute to a few lightning flashes with weak convection late this afternoon into evening. Elsewhere, increasing warm/moist advection will lead to scattered elevated convection late tonight/early Sunday across east Texas into northern Louisiana and ArkLaTex, some of which could produce lightning. Severe storms are not expected given weak buoyancy. Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0153 PM CST Sat Jan 25 2025 Valid 252000Z - 261200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are not forecast across the contiguous United States through tonight. ...20z Update... No changes were made to the prior outlook. Isolated thunderstorms will remain possible this afternoon and evening across portions of the central Valley of CA. Weak buoyancy (MUCAPE~ 100-200 J/kg) may support a few lightning flashes with low-topped storms beneath the advancing cold core upper low. Additional, mostly nocturnal, thunderstorms are possible over parts of the ArkLaTex late this evening and overnight. Increasing warm/moist advection ahead of a subtle southern stream perturbation may lead to widely scattered elevated convection into early Sunday. While some lightning is possible, the relatively limited ascent and buoyancy suggest coverage should remain fairly low, peaking around 10-20%. Severe storms are not expected given the relatively weak buoyancy and poor overlap with strong vertical shear. See the prior outlook for additional information. ..Lyons.. 01/25/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1020 AM CST Sat Jan 25 2025/ ...Discussion... Low amplitude nearly zonal westerlies will prevail over the majority of the CONUS to the east of an upper low centered over Nevada and northern California. Near this upper low, cold mid-level temperatures and steep lapse rates could contribute to a few lightning flashes with weak convection late this afternoon into evening. Elsewhere, increasing warm/moist advection will lead to scattered elevated convection late tonight/early Sunday across east Texas into northern Louisiana and ArkLaTex, some of which could produce lightning. Severe storms are not expected given weak buoyancy. Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0153 PM CST Sat Jan 25 2025 Valid 252000Z - 261200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are not forecast across the contiguous United States through tonight. ...20z Update... No changes were made to the prior outlook. Isolated thunderstorms will remain possible this afternoon and evening across portions of the central Valley of CA. Weak buoyancy (MUCAPE~ 100-200 J/kg) may support a few lightning flashes with low-topped storms beneath the advancing cold core upper low. Additional, mostly nocturnal, thunderstorms are possible over parts of the ArkLaTex late this evening and overnight. Increasing warm/moist advection ahead of a subtle southern stream perturbation may lead to widely scattered elevated convection into early Sunday. While some lightning is possible, the relatively limited ascent and buoyancy suggest coverage should remain fairly low, peaking around 10-20%. Severe storms are not expected given the relatively weak buoyancy and poor overlap with strong vertical shear. See the prior outlook for additional information. ..Lyons.. 01/25/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1020 AM CST Sat Jan 25 2025/ ...Discussion... Low amplitude nearly zonal westerlies will prevail over the majority of the CONUS to the east of an upper low centered over Nevada and northern California. Near this upper low, cold mid-level temperatures and steep lapse rates could contribute to a few lightning flashes with weak convection late this afternoon into evening. Elsewhere, increasing warm/moist advection will lead to scattered elevated convection late tonight/early Sunday across east Texas into northern Louisiana and ArkLaTex, some of which could produce lightning. Severe storms are not expected given weak buoyancy. Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0138 PM CST Sat Jan 25 2025 Valid 261200Z - 271200Z No changes are needed to the D2 Fire Weather Outlook. See previous discussion below for more information. ..Thornton.. 01/25/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0143 AM CST Sat Jan 25 2025/ ...Synopsis... Fire weather concerns are expected to linger across parts of southeastern and eastern Arizona on Sunday, but will remain limited elsewhere across the country. An upper wave that is in the early stages of amplification along the northern CA coast is forecast to continue deepening through the weekend as is migrates south/southeast towards the SoCal coast. This will maintain a swath of strong mid-level winds across much of AZ for the next 24-48 hours. At the surface, the greatest pressure falls will likely reside along the SoCal coast in proximity to the deepening upper wave and across portions of northern Mexico, resulting in a somewhat muted pressure gradient compared to today/Saturday. Consequently, winds will likely be weaker, but most solutions suggest sustained winds around 15 mph are still probable across southeast AZ where a deep boundary layer will aid in downward mixing of stronger mid-level winds, and along the northern slopes of the Mogollon Rim. Limited moisture return into the region will maintain RH minimums generally between 10-15%. Combined with antecedent dry fuels and breezy conditions, this should promote another day of at least elevated fire weather conditions. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0138 PM CST Sat Jan 25 2025 Valid 261200Z - 271200Z No changes are needed to the D2 Fire Weather Outlook. See previous discussion below for more information. ..Thornton.. 01/25/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0143 AM CST Sat Jan 25 2025/ ...Synopsis... Fire weather concerns are expected to linger across parts of southeastern and eastern Arizona on Sunday, but will remain limited elsewhere across the country. An upper wave that is in the early stages of amplification along the northern CA coast is forecast to continue deepening through the weekend as is migrates south/southeast towards the SoCal coast. This will maintain a swath of strong mid-level winds across much of AZ for the next 24-48 hours. At the surface, the greatest pressure falls will likely reside along the SoCal coast in proximity to the deepening upper wave and across portions of northern Mexico, resulting in a somewhat muted pressure gradient compared to today/Saturday. Consequently, winds will likely be weaker, but most solutions suggest sustained winds around 15 mph are still probable across southeast AZ where a deep boundary layer will aid in downward mixing of stronger mid-level winds, and along the northern slopes of the Mogollon Rim. Limited moisture return into the region will maintain RH minimums generally between 10-15%. Combined with antecedent dry fuels and breezy conditions, this should promote another day of at least elevated fire weather conditions. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0138 PM CST Sat Jan 25 2025 Valid 261200Z - 271200Z No changes are needed to the D2 Fire Weather Outlook. See previous discussion below for more information. ..Thornton.. 01/25/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0143 AM CST Sat Jan 25 2025/ ...Synopsis... Fire weather concerns are expected to linger across parts of southeastern and eastern Arizona on Sunday, but will remain limited elsewhere across the country. An upper wave that is in the early stages of amplification along the northern CA coast is forecast to continue deepening through the weekend as is migrates south/southeast towards the SoCal coast. This will maintain a swath of strong mid-level winds across much of AZ for the next 24-48 hours. At the surface, the greatest pressure falls will likely reside along the SoCal coast in proximity to the deepening upper wave and across portions of northern Mexico, resulting in a somewhat muted pressure gradient compared to today/Saturday. Consequently, winds will likely be weaker, but most solutions suggest sustained winds around 15 mph are still probable across southeast AZ where a deep boundary layer will aid in downward mixing of stronger mid-level winds, and along the northern slopes of the Mogollon Rim. Limited moisture return into the region will maintain RH minimums generally between 10-15%. Combined with antecedent dry fuels and breezy conditions, this should promote another day of at least elevated fire weather conditions. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0138 PM CST Sat Jan 25 2025 Valid 261200Z - 271200Z No changes are needed to the D2 Fire Weather Outlook. See previous discussion below for more information. ..Thornton.. 01/25/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0143 AM CST Sat Jan 25 2025/ ...Synopsis... Fire weather concerns are expected to linger across parts of southeastern and eastern Arizona on Sunday, but will remain limited elsewhere across the country. An upper wave that is in the early stages of amplification along the northern CA coast is forecast to continue deepening through the weekend as is migrates south/southeast towards the SoCal coast. This will maintain a swath of strong mid-level winds across much of AZ for the next 24-48 hours. At the surface, the greatest pressure falls will likely reside along the SoCal coast in proximity to the deepening upper wave and across portions of northern Mexico, resulting in a somewhat muted pressure gradient compared to today/Saturday. Consequently, winds will likely be weaker, but most solutions suggest sustained winds around 15 mph are still probable across southeast AZ where a deep boundary layer will aid in downward mixing of stronger mid-level winds, and along the northern slopes of the Mogollon Rim. Limited moisture return into the region will maintain RH minimums generally between 10-15%. Combined with antecedent dry fuels and breezy conditions, this should promote another day of at least elevated fire weather conditions. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0138 PM CST Sat Jan 25 2025 Valid 261200Z - 271200Z No changes are needed to the D2 Fire Weather Outlook. See previous discussion below for more information. ..Thornton.. 01/25/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0143 AM CST Sat Jan 25 2025/ ...Synopsis... Fire weather concerns are expected to linger across parts of southeastern and eastern Arizona on Sunday, but will remain limited elsewhere across the country. An upper wave that is in the early stages of amplification along the northern CA coast is forecast to continue deepening through the weekend as is migrates south/southeast towards the SoCal coast. This will maintain a swath of strong mid-level winds across much of AZ for the next 24-48 hours. At the surface, the greatest pressure falls will likely reside along the SoCal coast in proximity to the deepening upper wave and across portions of northern Mexico, resulting in a somewhat muted pressure gradient compared to today/Saturday. Consequently, winds will likely be weaker, but most solutions suggest sustained winds around 15 mph are still probable across southeast AZ where a deep boundary layer will aid in downward mixing of stronger mid-level winds, and along the northern slopes of the Mogollon Rim. Limited moisture return into the region will maintain RH minimums generally between 10-15%. Combined with antecedent dry fuels and breezy conditions, this should promote another day of at least elevated fire weather conditions. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more