Severe Storms

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0156 AM CST Tue Jan 21 2025 Valid 211200Z - 221200Z ...EXTREMELY CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR PORTIONS OF THE VENTURA VALLEY TO THE SAN BERNARDINO MOUNTAINS IN SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA... ...EXTREMELY CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR PORTIONS OF THE SAN JACINTO TO LAGUNA MOUNTAIN RANGES... ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA... ...Synopsis... A mid-level trough across the southwest U.S. will rapidly track eastward toward the Southeast while surface high pressure persists over the Great Basin through the period. Strong offshore flow will persist from the Ventura Valley to the Laguna Mountains, with widespread 20-30 mph sustained winds and 10 percent RH expected during the day into early Wednesday morning, warranting the maintenance of Critical highlights across much of the far southern California shoreline. Furthermore, the latest high-resolution guidance consensus shows sustained winds exceeding 40 mph, coinciding with single-digit RH, from the Ventura Valley to the San Bernardino Mountains, as well as the San Jacinto to Laguna Mountain ranges, where Extremely Critical highlights were maintained. The best chance for Extremely Critical conditions will be during the morning into early afternoon hours. ..Squitieri.. 01/21/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0156 AM CST Tue Jan 21 2025 Valid 211200Z - 221200Z ...EXTREMELY CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR PORTIONS OF THE VENTURA VALLEY TO THE SAN BERNARDINO MOUNTAINS IN SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA... ...EXTREMELY CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR PORTIONS OF THE SAN JACINTO TO LAGUNA MOUNTAIN RANGES... ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA... ...Synopsis... A mid-level trough across the southwest U.S. will rapidly track eastward toward the Southeast while surface high pressure persists over the Great Basin through the period. Strong offshore flow will persist from the Ventura Valley to the Laguna Mountains, with widespread 20-30 mph sustained winds and 10 percent RH expected during the day into early Wednesday morning, warranting the maintenance of Critical highlights across much of the far southern California shoreline. Furthermore, the latest high-resolution guidance consensus shows sustained winds exceeding 40 mph, coinciding with single-digit RH, from the Ventura Valley to the San Bernardino Mountains, as well as the San Jacinto to Laguna Mountain ranges, where Extremely Critical highlights were maintained. The best chance for Extremely Critical conditions will be during the morning into early afternoon hours. ..Squitieri.. 01/21/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0156 AM CST Tue Jan 21 2025 Valid 211200Z - 221200Z ...EXTREMELY CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR PORTIONS OF THE VENTURA VALLEY TO THE SAN BERNARDINO MOUNTAINS IN SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA... ...EXTREMELY CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR PORTIONS OF THE SAN JACINTO TO LAGUNA MOUNTAIN RANGES... ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA... ...Synopsis... A mid-level trough across the southwest U.S. will rapidly track eastward toward the Southeast while surface high pressure persists over the Great Basin through the period. Strong offshore flow will persist from the Ventura Valley to the Laguna Mountains, with widespread 20-30 mph sustained winds and 10 percent RH expected during the day into early Wednesday morning, warranting the maintenance of Critical highlights across much of the far southern California shoreline. Furthermore, the latest high-resolution guidance consensus shows sustained winds exceeding 40 mph, coinciding with single-digit RH, from the Ventura Valley to the San Bernardino Mountains, as well as the San Jacinto to Laguna Mountain ranges, where Extremely Critical highlights were maintained. The best chance for Extremely Critical conditions will be during the morning into early afternoon hours. ..Squitieri.. 01/21/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0156 AM CST Tue Jan 21 2025 Valid 211200Z - 221200Z ...EXTREMELY CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR PORTIONS OF THE VENTURA VALLEY TO THE SAN BERNARDINO MOUNTAINS IN SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA... ...EXTREMELY CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR PORTIONS OF THE SAN JACINTO TO LAGUNA MOUNTAIN RANGES... ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA... ...Synopsis... A mid-level trough across the southwest U.S. will rapidly track eastward toward the Southeast while surface high pressure persists over the Great Basin through the period. Strong offshore flow will persist from the Ventura Valley to the Laguna Mountains, with widespread 20-30 mph sustained winds and 10 percent RH expected during the day into early Wednesday morning, warranting the maintenance of Critical highlights across much of the far southern California shoreline. Furthermore, the latest high-resolution guidance consensus shows sustained winds exceeding 40 mph, coinciding with single-digit RH, from the Ventura Valley to the San Bernardino Mountains, as well as the San Jacinto to Laguna Mountain ranges, where Extremely Critical highlights were maintained. The best chance for Extremely Critical conditions will be during the morning into early afternoon hours. ..Squitieri.. 01/21/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0156 AM CST Tue Jan 21 2025 Valid 211200Z - 221200Z ...EXTREMELY CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR PORTIONS OF THE VENTURA VALLEY TO THE SAN BERNARDINO MOUNTAINS IN SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA... ...EXTREMELY CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR PORTIONS OF THE SAN JACINTO TO LAGUNA MOUNTAIN RANGES... ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA... ...Synopsis... A mid-level trough across the southwest U.S. will rapidly track eastward toward the Southeast while surface high pressure persists over the Great Basin through the period. Strong offshore flow will persist from the Ventura Valley to the Laguna Mountains, with widespread 20-30 mph sustained winds and 10 percent RH expected during the day into early Wednesday morning, warranting the maintenance of Critical highlights across much of the far southern California shoreline. Furthermore, the latest high-resolution guidance consensus shows sustained winds exceeding 40 mph, coinciding with single-digit RH, from the Ventura Valley to the San Bernardino Mountains, as well as the San Jacinto to Laguna Mountain ranges, where Extremely Critical highlights were maintained. The best chance for Extremely Critical conditions will be during the morning into early afternoon hours. ..Squitieri.. 01/21/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0156 AM CST Tue Jan 21 2025 Valid 211200Z - 221200Z ...EXTREMELY CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR PORTIONS OF THE VENTURA VALLEY TO THE SAN BERNARDINO MOUNTAINS IN SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA... ...EXTREMELY CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR PORTIONS OF THE SAN JACINTO TO LAGUNA MOUNTAIN RANGES... ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA... ...Synopsis... A mid-level trough across the southwest U.S. will rapidly track eastward toward the Southeast while surface high pressure persists over the Great Basin through the period. Strong offshore flow will persist from the Ventura Valley to the Laguna Mountains, with widespread 20-30 mph sustained winds and 10 percent RH expected during the day into early Wednesday morning, warranting the maintenance of Critical highlights across much of the far southern California shoreline. Furthermore, the latest high-resolution guidance consensus shows sustained winds exceeding 40 mph, coinciding with single-digit RH, from the Ventura Valley to the San Bernardino Mountains, as well as the San Jacinto to Laguna Mountain ranges, where Extremely Critical highlights were maintained. The best chance for Extremely Critical conditions will be during the morning into early afternoon hours. ..Squitieri.. 01/21/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0156 AM CST Tue Jan 21 2025 Valid 211200Z - 221200Z ...EXTREMELY CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR PORTIONS OF THE VENTURA VALLEY TO THE SAN BERNARDINO MOUNTAINS IN SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA... ...EXTREMELY CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR PORTIONS OF THE SAN JACINTO TO LAGUNA MOUNTAIN RANGES... ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA... ...Synopsis... A mid-level trough across the southwest U.S. will rapidly track eastward toward the Southeast while surface high pressure persists over the Great Basin through the period. Strong offshore flow will persist from the Ventura Valley to the Laguna Mountains, with widespread 20-30 mph sustained winds and 10 percent RH expected during the day into early Wednesday morning, warranting the maintenance of Critical highlights across much of the far southern California shoreline. Furthermore, the latest high-resolution guidance consensus shows sustained winds exceeding 40 mph, coinciding with single-digit RH, from the Ventura Valley to the San Bernardino Mountains, as well as the San Jacinto to Laguna Mountain ranges, where Extremely Critical highlights were maintained. The best chance for Extremely Critical conditions will be during the morning into early afternoon hours. ..Squitieri.. 01/21/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0156 AM CST Tue Jan 21 2025 Valid 211200Z - 221200Z ...EXTREMELY CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR PORTIONS OF THE VENTURA VALLEY TO THE SAN BERNARDINO MOUNTAINS IN SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA... ...EXTREMELY CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR PORTIONS OF THE SAN JACINTO TO LAGUNA MOUNTAIN RANGES... ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA... ...Synopsis... A mid-level trough across the southwest U.S. will rapidly track eastward toward the Southeast while surface high pressure persists over the Great Basin through the period. Strong offshore flow will persist from the Ventura Valley to the Laguna Mountains, with widespread 20-30 mph sustained winds and 10 percent RH expected during the day into early Wednesday morning, warranting the maintenance of Critical highlights across much of the far southern California shoreline. Furthermore, the latest high-resolution guidance consensus shows sustained winds exceeding 40 mph, coinciding with single-digit RH, from the Ventura Valley to the San Bernardino Mountains, as well as the San Jacinto to Laguna Mountain ranges, where Extremely Critical highlights were maintained. The best chance for Extremely Critical conditions will be during the morning into early afternoon hours. ..Squitieri.. 01/21/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC 0830Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0117 AM CST Tue Jan 21 2025 Valid 231200Z - 241200Z ...NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorms are not forecast on Thursday. ...Synopsis... A cool and stable pattern will persist on Thursday across the CONUS with an expansive upper trough over much of the central states and into the Great Lakes. This trough may amplify as it becomes more progressive and moves into the MS Valley by 12Z Friday. A strongly cyclonic speed max will exist along the northern Gulf Coast, with cooling aloft to the north. At the surface, another installment of high pressure will push into the Gulf of Mexico, with further drying. Any appreciable low-level moisture will remain east of the FL Peninsula, and as such, thunderstorms are not forecast. ..Jewell.. 01/21/2025 Read more

SPC 0830Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0117 AM CST Tue Jan 21 2025 Valid 231200Z - 241200Z ...NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorms are not forecast on Thursday. ...Synopsis... A cool and stable pattern will persist on Thursday across the CONUS with an expansive upper trough over much of the central states and into the Great Lakes. This trough may amplify as it becomes more progressive and moves into the MS Valley by 12Z Friday. A strongly cyclonic speed max will exist along the northern Gulf Coast, with cooling aloft to the north. At the surface, another installment of high pressure will push into the Gulf of Mexico, with further drying. Any appreciable low-level moisture will remain east of the FL Peninsula, and as such, thunderstorms are not forecast. ..Jewell.. 01/21/2025 Read more

SPC 0830Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0117 AM CST Tue Jan 21 2025 Valid 231200Z - 241200Z ...NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorms are not forecast on Thursday. ...Synopsis... A cool and stable pattern will persist on Thursday across the CONUS with an expansive upper trough over much of the central states and into the Great Lakes. This trough may amplify as it becomes more progressive and moves into the MS Valley by 12Z Friday. A strongly cyclonic speed max will exist along the northern Gulf Coast, with cooling aloft to the north. At the surface, another installment of high pressure will push into the Gulf of Mexico, with further drying. Any appreciable low-level moisture will remain east of the FL Peninsula, and as such, thunderstorms are not forecast. ..Jewell.. 01/21/2025 Read more

SPC 0830Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0117 AM CST Tue Jan 21 2025 Valid 231200Z - 241200Z ...NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorms are not forecast on Thursday. ...Synopsis... A cool and stable pattern will persist on Thursday across the CONUS with an expansive upper trough over much of the central states and into the Great Lakes. This trough may amplify as it becomes more progressive and moves into the MS Valley by 12Z Friday. A strongly cyclonic speed max will exist along the northern Gulf Coast, with cooling aloft to the north. At the surface, another installment of high pressure will push into the Gulf of Mexico, with further drying. Any appreciable low-level moisture will remain east of the FL Peninsula, and as such, thunderstorms are not forecast. ..Jewell.. 01/21/2025 Read more

SPC 0830Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0117 AM CST Tue Jan 21 2025 Valid 231200Z - 241200Z ...NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorms are not forecast on Thursday. ...Synopsis... A cool and stable pattern will persist on Thursday across the CONUS with an expansive upper trough over much of the central states and into the Great Lakes. This trough may amplify as it becomes more progressive and moves into the MS Valley by 12Z Friday. A strongly cyclonic speed max will exist along the northern Gulf Coast, with cooling aloft to the north. At the surface, another installment of high pressure will push into the Gulf of Mexico, with further drying. Any appreciable low-level moisture will remain east of the FL Peninsula, and as such, thunderstorms are not forecast. ..Jewell.. 01/21/2025 Read more

SPC 0830Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0117 AM CST Tue Jan 21 2025 Valid 231200Z - 241200Z ...NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorms are not forecast on Thursday. ...Synopsis... A cool and stable pattern will persist on Thursday across the CONUS with an expansive upper trough over much of the central states and into the Great Lakes. This trough may amplify as it becomes more progressive and moves into the MS Valley by 12Z Friday. A strongly cyclonic speed max will exist along the northern Gulf Coast, with cooling aloft to the north. At the surface, another installment of high pressure will push into the Gulf of Mexico, with further drying. Any appreciable low-level moisture will remain east of the FL Peninsula, and as such, thunderstorms are not forecast. ..Jewell.. 01/21/2025 Read more

SPC 0830Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0117 AM CST Tue Jan 21 2025 Valid 231200Z - 241200Z ...NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorms are not forecast on Thursday. ...Synopsis... A cool and stable pattern will persist on Thursday across the CONUS with an expansive upper trough over much of the central states and into the Great Lakes. This trough may amplify as it becomes more progressive and moves into the MS Valley by 12Z Friday. A strongly cyclonic speed max will exist along the northern Gulf Coast, with cooling aloft to the north. At the surface, another installment of high pressure will push into the Gulf of Mexico, with further drying. Any appreciable low-level moisture will remain east of the FL Peninsula, and as such, thunderstorms are not forecast. ..Jewell.. 01/21/2025 Read more

SPC 0830Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0117 AM CST Tue Jan 21 2025 Valid 231200Z - 241200Z ...NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorms are not forecast on Thursday. ...Synopsis... A cool and stable pattern will persist on Thursday across the CONUS with an expansive upper trough over much of the central states and into the Great Lakes. This trough may amplify as it becomes more progressive and moves into the MS Valley by 12Z Friday. A strongly cyclonic speed max will exist along the northern Gulf Coast, with cooling aloft to the north. At the surface, another installment of high pressure will push into the Gulf of Mexico, with further drying. Any appreciable low-level moisture will remain east of the FL Peninsula, and as such, thunderstorms are not forecast. ..Jewell.. 01/21/2025 Read more

MD 0043 CONCERNING WINTER MIXED PRECIPITATION FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTH INTO SOUTHEAST AND EASTERN TEXAS
Mesoscale Discussion 0043 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1000 PM CST Mon Jan 20 2025 Areas affected...portions of south into southeast and eastern Texas Concerning...Winter mixed precipitation Valid 210400Z - 210800Z SUMMARY...Wintry precipitation rates should increase through tonight across southeastern portions of Texas, with sleet and freezing rain accumulations likely to continue. DISCUSSION...700 mb WAA continues to increase atop a sub-freezing airmass over southeastern TX as a positively tilted mid-level trough glances the region to the north. Meanwhile, the dry low-levels support wet-bulb temperatures well below freezing given ample evaporative cooling/sublimation potential. Over the next couple of hours, continued cooling of the surface-850 mb layer, due to both 925 mb CAA and evaporative cooling, should support an increased potential for wintry precipitation (as evident based on recent reports of ice accretion and sleet accumulations). The greatest near-term potential for freezing rain/ice accretion will be along a zone roughly from Wilson to Tyler Counties, where surface observations show surface temperatures already cooled below 32 F. Latest high-resolution guidance shows sleet/freezing rates peaking sometime after 06Z, including over portions of deep-south TX. With time, at least moderate snowfall rates may eventually be observed closer to the southeast TX coastline. ..Squitieri.. 01/21/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...LCH...SHV...HGX...CRP...EWX... LAT...LON 28789686 27639811 27479862 28629842 29729812 30359727 30899592 31199473 31259398 30999377 30489386 29879437 29819506 28789686 Read more

SPC 0700Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1048 PM CST Mon Jan 20 2025 Valid 221200Z - 231200Z ...NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorms are not expected on Wednesday. ...Synopsis... A large upper trough will remain over all but the westernmost CONUS on Wednesday, with a leading trough exiting the East Coast early in the day. At that time, high pressure will firmly be in place over the East, with strong north winds over the Gulf of Mexico and western Atlantic. A weak surface low may develop along the front over the Bahamas, but low-level moisture and instability is forecast to remain off the FL Peninsula. Behind this system, another upper trough will develop out of the Rockies and into the central states, with another strong area of high pressure centered over the Intermountain West into Thursday morning. The cool and/or stable air mass over land will thus maintain little if any chance of thunderstorms through the period. ..Jewell.. 01/21/2025 Read more

SPC 0700Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1048 PM CST Mon Jan 20 2025 Valid 221200Z - 231200Z ...NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorms are not expected on Wednesday. ...Synopsis... A large upper trough will remain over all but the westernmost CONUS on Wednesday, with a leading trough exiting the East Coast early in the day. At that time, high pressure will firmly be in place over the East, with strong north winds over the Gulf of Mexico and western Atlantic. A weak surface low may develop along the front over the Bahamas, but low-level moisture and instability is forecast to remain off the FL Peninsula. Behind this system, another upper trough will develop out of the Rockies and into the central states, with another strong area of high pressure centered over the Intermountain West into Thursday morning. The cool and/or stable air mass over land will thus maintain little if any chance of thunderstorms through the period. ..Jewell.. 01/21/2025 Read more

SPC 0700Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1048 PM CST Mon Jan 20 2025 Valid 221200Z - 231200Z ...NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorms are not expected on Wednesday. ...Synopsis... A large upper trough will remain over all but the westernmost CONUS on Wednesday, with a leading trough exiting the East Coast early in the day. At that time, high pressure will firmly be in place over the East, with strong north winds over the Gulf of Mexico and western Atlantic. A weak surface low may develop along the front over the Bahamas, but low-level moisture and instability is forecast to remain off the FL Peninsula. Behind this system, another upper trough will develop out of the Rockies and into the central states, with another strong area of high pressure centered over the Intermountain West into Thursday morning. The cool and/or stable air mass over land will thus maintain little if any chance of thunderstorms through the period. ..Jewell.. 01/21/2025 Read more