Severe Storms

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0141 PM CST Mon Jan 20 2025 Valid 202000Z - 211200Z ...NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... No thunderstorms are expected across the U.S. through tonight. ...20z Update... No changes are needed to the D1 Convective Outlook. See previous discussion below for more information. ..Thornton/Mosier.. 01/20/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1028 AM CST Mon Jan 20 2025/ ...Synopsis... Another surge of cold air is anticipated across the CONUS, reinforcing the polar airmass already in place. This will result in a maintenance of dry and stable conditions, with no thunderstorms anticipated. Some deeper convection is possible late tonight/early tomorrow along the middle/upper TX Coast as warm-air advection strengthens throughout the warm sector of surface low developing over the western Gulf of Mexico. Model forecast soundings have thermodynamic profiles with scant (and shallow) buoyancy between around 800 to 500 mb. These profiles also suggest sleet will be the predominant precipitation type, with mixed-phase parcels combining with the modest buoyancy to support a few lightning flashes. Even so, the overall thunderstorm probabilities are still expected to be less than 10 percent. Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0141 PM CST Mon Jan 20 2025 Valid 202000Z - 211200Z ...NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... No thunderstorms are expected across the U.S. through tonight. ...20z Update... No changes are needed to the D1 Convective Outlook. See previous discussion below for more information. ..Thornton/Mosier.. 01/20/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1028 AM CST Mon Jan 20 2025/ ...Synopsis... Another surge of cold air is anticipated across the CONUS, reinforcing the polar airmass already in place. This will result in a maintenance of dry and stable conditions, with no thunderstorms anticipated. Some deeper convection is possible late tonight/early tomorrow along the middle/upper TX Coast as warm-air advection strengthens throughout the warm sector of surface low developing over the western Gulf of Mexico. Model forecast soundings have thermodynamic profiles with scant (and shallow) buoyancy between around 800 to 500 mb. These profiles also suggest sleet will be the predominant precipitation type, with mixed-phase parcels combining with the modest buoyancy to support a few lightning flashes. Even so, the overall thunderstorm probabilities are still expected to be less than 10 percent. Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0141 PM CST Mon Jan 20 2025 Valid 202000Z - 211200Z ...NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... No thunderstorms are expected across the U.S. through tonight. ...20z Update... No changes are needed to the D1 Convective Outlook. See previous discussion below for more information. ..Thornton/Mosier.. 01/20/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1028 AM CST Mon Jan 20 2025/ ...Synopsis... Another surge of cold air is anticipated across the CONUS, reinforcing the polar airmass already in place. This will result in a maintenance of dry and stable conditions, with no thunderstorms anticipated. Some deeper convection is possible late tonight/early tomorrow along the middle/upper TX Coast as warm-air advection strengthens throughout the warm sector of surface low developing over the western Gulf of Mexico. Model forecast soundings have thermodynamic profiles with scant (and shallow) buoyancy between around 800 to 500 mb. These profiles also suggest sleet will be the predominant precipitation type, with mixed-phase parcels combining with the modest buoyancy to support a few lightning flashes. Even so, the overall thunderstorm probabilities are still expected to be less than 10 percent. Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0141 PM CST Mon Jan 20 2025 Valid 202000Z - 211200Z ...NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... No thunderstorms are expected across the U.S. through tonight. ...20z Update... No changes are needed to the D1 Convective Outlook. See previous discussion below for more information. ..Thornton/Mosier.. 01/20/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1028 AM CST Mon Jan 20 2025/ ...Synopsis... Another surge of cold air is anticipated across the CONUS, reinforcing the polar airmass already in place. This will result in a maintenance of dry and stable conditions, with no thunderstorms anticipated. Some deeper convection is possible late tonight/early tomorrow along the middle/upper TX Coast as warm-air advection strengthens throughout the warm sector of surface low developing over the western Gulf of Mexico. Model forecast soundings have thermodynamic profiles with scant (and shallow) buoyancy between around 800 to 500 mb. These profiles also suggest sleet will be the predominant precipitation type, with mixed-phase parcels combining with the modest buoyancy to support a few lightning flashes. Even so, the overall thunderstorm probabilities are still expected to be less than 10 percent. Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0141 PM CST Mon Jan 20 2025 Valid 202000Z - 211200Z ...NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... No thunderstorms are expected across the U.S. through tonight. ...20z Update... No changes are needed to the D1 Convective Outlook. See previous discussion below for more information. ..Thornton/Mosier.. 01/20/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1028 AM CST Mon Jan 20 2025/ ...Synopsis... Another surge of cold air is anticipated across the CONUS, reinforcing the polar airmass already in place. This will result in a maintenance of dry and stable conditions, with no thunderstorms anticipated. Some deeper convection is possible late tonight/early tomorrow along the middle/upper TX Coast as warm-air advection strengthens throughout the warm sector of surface low developing over the western Gulf of Mexico. Model forecast soundings have thermodynamic profiles with scant (and shallow) buoyancy between around 800 to 500 mb. These profiles also suggest sleet will be the predominant precipitation type, with mixed-phase parcels combining with the modest buoyancy to support a few lightning flashes. Even so, the overall thunderstorm probabilities are still expected to be less than 10 percent. Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0141 PM CST Mon Jan 20 2025 Valid 202000Z - 211200Z ...NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... No thunderstorms are expected across the U.S. through tonight. ...20z Update... No changes are needed to the D1 Convective Outlook. See previous discussion below for more information. ..Thornton/Mosier.. 01/20/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1028 AM CST Mon Jan 20 2025/ ...Synopsis... Another surge of cold air is anticipated across the CONUS, reinforcing the polar airmass already in place. This will result in a maintenance of dry and stable conditions, with no thunderstorms anticipated. Some deeper convection is possible late tonight/early tomorrow along the middle/upper TX Coast as warm-air advection strengthens throughout the warm sector of surface low developing over the western Gulf of Mexico. Model forecast soundings have thermodynamic profiles with scant (and shallow) buoyancy between around 800 to 500 mb. These profiles also suggest sleet will be the predominant precipitation type, with mixed-phase parcels combining with the modest buoyancy to support a few lightning flashes. Even so, the overall thunderstorm probabilities are still expected to be less than 10 percent. Read more

SPC 1930Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1242 PM CST Mon Jan 20 2025 Valid 221200Z - 231200Z ...NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorms are not expected through Wednesday night. ...Synopsis... Conditions will be too dry/stable for potential lightning-producing convection across the CONUS through the period. ..Grams.. 01/20/2025 Read more

SPC 1930Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1242 PM CST Mon Jan 20 2025 Valid 221200Z - 231200Z ...NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorms are not expected through Wednesday night. ...Synopsis... Conditions will be too dry/stable for potential lightning-producing convection across the CONUS through the period. ..Grams.. 01/20/2025 Read more

SPC 1930Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1242 PM CST Mon Jan 20 2025 Valid 221200Z - 231200Z ...NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorms are not expected through Wednesday night. ...Synopsis... Conditions will be too dry/stable for potential lightning-producing convection across the CONUS through the period. ..Grams.. 01/20/2025 Read more

SPC 1930Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1242 PM CST Mon Jan 20 2025 Valid 221200Z - 231200Z ...NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorms are not expected through Wednesday night. ...Synopsis... Conditions will be too dry/stable for potential lightning-producing convection across the CONUS through the period. ..Grams.. 01/20/2025 Read more

SPC 1930Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1242 PM CST Mon Jan 20 2025 Valid 221200Z - 231200Z ...NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorms are not expected through Wednesday night. ...Synopsis... Conditions will be too dry/stable for potential lightning-producing convection across the CONUS through the period. ..Grams.. 01/20/2025 Read more

SPC 1930Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1242 PM CST Mon Jan 20 2025 Valid 221200Z - 231200Z ...NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorms are not expected through Wednesday night. ...Synopsis... Conditions will be too dry/stable for potential lightning-producing convection across the CONUS through the period. ..Grams.. 01/20/2025 Read more

SPC 1930Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1242 PM CST Mon Jan 20 2025 Valid 221200Z - 231200Z ...NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorms are not expected through Wednesday night. ...Synopsis... Conditions will be too dry/stable for potential lightning-producing convection across the CONUS through the period. ..Grams.. 01/20/2025 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1102 AM CST Mon Jan 20 2025 Valid 211200Z - 221200Z ...NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorms are not forecast on Tuesday through Tuesday night. ...Synopsis... Thunder potential will be nil across much of the CONUS during the D2 period. Deep convection will be relegated to the Gulf, initially over the west-central portion before spreading towards the southeast part late. The slimmest of elevated buoyancy (MUCAPE below 100 J/kg) along the Upper TX to LA Gulf Coast may coincide with mixed-phase parcels, supporting weak convection into late morning. A few lightning flashes are possible along the immediate coast, but the overall thunder probability appears to be less than 10 percent. As deep convection progresses east across the Gulf, it is expected to wane with approach to southwest FL and the Keys early Wednesday morning. This decaying phase should occur in response poor mid-level lapse rates downstream of a positive-tilt trough and subsiding large-scale ascent. ..Grams.. 01/20/2025 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1102 AM CST Mon Jan 20 2025 Valid 211200Z - 221200Z ...NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorms are not forecast on Tuesday through Tuesday night. ...Synopsis... Thunder potential will be nil across much of the CONUS during the D2 period. Deep convection will be relegated to the Gulf, initially over the west-central portion before spreading towards the southeast part late. The slimmest of elevated buoyancy (MUCAPE below 100 J/kg) along the Upper TX to LA Gulf Coast may coincide with mixed-phase parcels, supporting weak convection into late morning. A few lightning flashes are possible along the immediate coast, but the overall thunder probability appears to be less than 10 percent. As deep convection progresses east across the Gulf, it is expected to wane with approach to southwest FL and the Keys early Wednesday morning. This decaying phase should occur in response poor mid-level lapse rates downstream of a positive-tilt trough and subsiding large-scale ascent. ..Grams.. 01/20/2025 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1102 AM CST Mon Jan 20 2025 Valid 211200Z - 221200Z ...NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorms are not forecast on Tuesday through Tuesday night. ...Synopsis... Thunder potential will be nil across much of the CONUS during the D2 period. Deep convection will be relegated to the Gulf, initially over the west-central portion before spreading towards the southeast part late. The slimmest of elevated buoyancy (MUCAPE below 100 J/kg) along the Upper TX to LA Gulf Coast may coincide with mixed-phase parcels, supporting weak convection into late morning. A few lightning flashes are possible along the immediate coast, but the overall thunder probability appears to be less than 10 percent. As deep convection progresses east across the Gulf, it is expected to wane with approach to southwest FL and the Keys early Wednesday morning. This decaying phase should occur in response poor mid-level lapse rates downstream of a positive-tilt trough and subsiding large-scale ascent. ..Grams.. 01/20/2025 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1102 AM CST Mon Jan 20 2025 Valid 211200Z - 221200Z ...NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorms are not forecast on Tuesday through Tuesday night. ...Synopsis... Thunder potential will be nil across much of the CONUS during the D2 period. Deep convection will be relegated to the Gulf, initially over the west-central portion before spreading towards the southeast part late. The slimmest of elevated buoyancy (MUCAPE below 100 J/kg) along the Upper TX to LA Gulf Coast may coincide with mixed-phase parcels, supporting weak convection into late morning. A few lightning flashes are possible along the immediate coast, but the overall thunder probability appears to be less than 10 percent. As deep convection progresses east across the Gulf, it is expected to wane with approach to southwest FL and the Keys early Wednesday morning. This decaying phase should occur in response poor mid-level lapse rates downstream of a positive-tilt trough and subsiding large-scale ascent. ..Grams.. 01/20/2025 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1102 AM CST Mon Jan 20 2025 Valid 211200Z - 221200Z ...NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorms are not forecast on Tuesday through Tuesday night. ...Synopsis... Thunder potential will be nil across much of the CONUS during the D2 period. Deep convection will be relegated to the Gulf, initially over the west-central portion before spreading towards the southeast part late. The slimmest of elevated buoyancy (MUCAPE below 100 J/kg) along the Upper TX to LA Gulf Coast may coincide with mixed-phase parcels, supporting weak convection into late morning. A few lightning flashes are possible along the immediate coast, but the overall thunder probability appears to be less than 10 percent. As deep convection progresses east across the Gulf, it is expected to wane with approach to southwest FL and the Keys early Wednesday morning. This decaying phase should occur in response poor mid-level lapse rates downstream of a positive-tilt trough and subsiding large-scale ascent. ..Grams.. 01/20/2025 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1102 AM CST Mon Jan 20 2025 Valid 211200Z - 221200Z ...NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorms are not forecast on Tuesday through Tuesday night. ...Synopsis... Thunder potential will be nil across much of the CONUS during the D2 period. Deep convection will be relegated to the Gulf, initially over the west-central portion before spreading towards the southeast part late. The slimmest of elevated buoyancy (MUCAPE below 100 J/kg) along the Upper TX to LA Gulf Coast may coincide with mixed-phase parcels, supporting weak convection into late morning. A few lightning flashes are possible along the immediate coast, but the overall thunder probability appears to be less than 10 percent. As deep convection progresses east across the Gulf, it is expected to wane with approach to southwest FL and the Keys early Wednesday morning. This decaying phase should occur in response poor mid-level lapse rates downstream of a positive-tilt trough and subsiding large-scale ascent. ..Grams.. 01/20/2025 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1102 AM CST Mon Jan 20 2025 Valid 211200Z - 221200Z ...NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorms are not forecast on Tuesday through Tuesday night. ...Synopsis... Thunder potential will be nil across much of the CONUS during the D2 period. Deep convection will be relegated to the Gulf, initially over the west-central portion before spreading towards the southeast part late. The slimmest of elevated buoyancy (MUCAPE below 100 J/kg) along the Upper TX to LA Gulf Coast may coincide with mixed-phase parcels, supporting weak convection into late morning. A few lightning flashes are possible along the immediate coast, but the overall thunder probability appears to be less than 10 percent. As deep convection progresses east across the Gulf, it is expected to wane with approach to southwest FL and the Keys early Wednesday morning. This decaying phase should occur in response poor mid-level lapse rates downstream of a positive-tilt trough and subsiding large-scale ascent. ..Grams.. 01/20/2025 Read more