Severe Storms

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0320 PM CST Mon Feb 03 2025 Valid 051200Z - 111200Z Fire weather concerns will most likely be confined to the southern High Plains through the end of the work week as dry conditions persist. Long-range ensemble guidance maintains an anomalously strong, but low-amplitude, upper ridge over the south-central CONUS through the middle of the work week. This will maintain dry conditions for eastern NM and western TX, which currently have 30-day rainfall deficits of around 25% of normal. Some weakening of the ridge is anticipated over the second half of the week, resulting in strengthening zonal flow over the central/southern Rockies. Lee troughing is expected to be most pronounced on D3/Wed and D5/Fri due to the influence of two passing low-amplitude upper disturbances. The resulting low-level mass response will likely induce winds upwards of 15-25 mph across parts of eastern NM and western TX with RH reductions falling to near/below 20% due to a combination of dry air advection from the Desert Southwest and downslope warming/drying. Ensemble guidance suggests a stronger surface low is likely on D3/Wed, which should support a more robust/widespread fire weather threat. Regardless, the curing of fine grasses across the region after a prolonged dry period (coupled with above-average temperatures for the past few days) should support a fire weather concern as winds increase later this week. ..Moore.. 02/03/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0320 PM CST Mon Feb 03 2025 Valid 051200Z - 111200Z Fire weather concerns will most likely be confined to the southern High Plains through the end of the work week as dry conditions persist. Long-range ensemble guidance maintains an anomalously strong, but low-amplitude, upper ridge over the south-central CONUS through the middle of the work week. This will maintain dry conditions for eastern NM and western TX, which currently have 30-day rainfall deficits of around 25% of normal. Some weakening of the ridge is anticipated over the second half of the week, resulting in strengthening zonal flow over the central/southern Rockies. Lee troughing is expected to be most pronounced on D3/Wed and D5/Fri due to the influence of two passing low-amplitude upper disturbances. The resulting low-level mass response will likely induce winds upwards of 15-25 mph across parts of eastern NM and western TX with RH reductions falling to near/below 20% due to a combination of dry air advection from the Desert Southwest and downslope warming/drying. Ensemble guidance suggests a stronger surface low is likely on D3/Wed, which should support a more robust/widespread fire weather threat. Regardless, the curing of fine grasses across the region after a prolonged dry period (coupled with above-average temperatures for the past few days) should support a fire weather concern as winds increase later this week. ..Moore.. 02/03/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0320 PM CST Mon Feb 03 2025 Valid 051200Z - 111200Z Fire weather concerns will most likely be confined to the southern High Plains through the end of the work week as dry conditions persist. Long-range ensemble guidance maintains an anomalously strong, but low-amplitude, upper ridge over the south-central CONUS through the middle of the work week. This will maintain dry conditions for eastern NM and western TX, which currently have 30-day rainfall deficits of around 25% of normal. Some weakening of the ridge is anticipated over the second half of the week, resulting in strengthening zonal flow over the central/southern Rockies. Lee troughing is expected to be most pronounced on D3/Wed and D5/Fri due to the influence of two passing low-amplitude upper disturbances. The resulting low-level mass response will likely induce winds upwards of 15-25 mph across parts of eastern NM and western TX with RH reductions falling to near/below 20% due to a combination of dry air advection from the Desert Southwest and downslope warming/drying. Ensemble guidance suggests a stronger surface low is likely on D3/Wed, which should support a more robust/widespread fire weather threat. Regardless, the curing of fine grasses across the region after a prolonged dry period (coupled with above-average temperatures for the past few days) should support a fire weather concern as winds increase later this week. ..Moore.. 02/03/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0320 PM CST Mon Feb 03 2025 Valid 051200Z - 111200Z Fire weather concerns will most likely be confined to the southern High Plains through the end of the work week as dry conditions persist. Long-range ensemble guidance maintains an anomalously strong, but low-amplitude, upper ridge over the south-central CONUS through the middle of the work week. This will maintain dry conditions for eastern NM and western TX, which currently have 30-day rainfall deficits of around 25% of normal. Some weakening of the ridge is anticipated over the second half of the week, resulting in strengthening zonal flow over the central/southern Rockies. Lee troughing is expected to be most pronounced on D3/Wed and D5/Fri due to the influence of two passing low-amplitude upper disturbances. The resulting low-level mass response will likely induce winds upwards of 15-25 mph across parts of eastern NM and western TX with RH reductions falling to near/below 20% due to a combination of dry air advection from the Desert Southwest and downslope warming/drying. Ensemble guidance suggests a stronger surface low is likely on D3/Wed, which should support a more robust/widespread fire weather threat. Regardless, the curing of fine grasses across the region after a prolonged dry period (coupled with above-average temperatures for the past few days) should support a fire weather concern as winds increase later this week. ..Moore.. 02/03/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0320 PM CST Mon Feb 03 2025 Valid 051200Z - 111200Z Fire weather concerns will most likely be confined to the southern High Plains through the end of the work week as dry conditions persist. Long-range ensemble guidance maintains an anomalously strong, but low-amplitude, upper ridge over the south-central CONUS through the middle of the work week. This will maintain dry conditions for eastern NM and western TX, which currently have 30-day rainfall deficits of around 25% of normal. Some weakening of the ridge is anticipated over the second half of the week, resulting in strengthening zonal flow over the central/southern Rockies. Lee troughing is expected to be most pronounced on D3/Wed and D5/Fri due to the influence of two passing low-amplitude upper disturbances. The resulting low-level mass response will likely induce winds upwards of 15-25 mph across parts of eastern NM and western TX with RH reductions falling to near/below 20% due to a combination of dry air advection from the Desert Southwest and downslope warming/drying. Ensemble guidance suggests a stronger surface low is likely on D3/Wed, which should support a more robust/widespread fire weather threat. Regardless, the curing of fine grasses across the region after a prolonged dry period (coupled with above-average temperatures for the past few days) should support a fire weather concern as winds increase later this week. ..Moore.. 02/03/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0320 PM CST Mon Feb 03 2025 Valid 051200Z - 111200Z Fire weather concerns will most likely be confined to the southern High Plains through the end of the work week as dry conditions persist. Long-range ensemble guidance maintains an anomalously strong, but low-amplitude, upper ridge over the south-central CONUS through the middle of the work week. This will maintain dry conditions for eastern NM and western TX, which currently have 30-day rainfall deficits of around 25% of normal. Some weakening of the ridge is anticipated over the second half of the week, resulting in strengthening zonal flow over the central/southern Rockies. Lee troughing is expected to be most pronounced on D3/Wed and D5/Fri due to the influence of two passing low-amplitude upper disturbances. The resulting low-level mass response will likely induce winds upwards of 15-25 mph across parts of eastern NM and western TX with RH reductions falling to near/below 20% due to a combination of dry air advection from the Desert Southwest and downslope warming/drying. Ensemble guidance suggests a stronger surface low is likely on D3/Wed, which should support a more robust/widespread fire weather threat. Regardless, the curing of fine grasses across the region after a prolonged dry period (coupled with above-average temperatures for the past few days) should support a fire weather concern as winds increase later this week. ..Moore.. 02/03/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

No Mesoscale Discussions are in effect as of Mon Feb 3 21:26:02 UTC 2025.

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0153 PM CST Mon Feb 03 2025 Valid 032000Z - 041200Z ...NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorms are not forecast across the contiguous United States through tonight. ...20z Update... No changes are needed to the D1 Convective Outlook. See previous discussion below for more information. ..Thornton.. 02/03/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1015 AM CST Mon Feb 03 2025/ Fast zonal flow is present today across the northern 2/3rds of the CONUS, with dry and stable conditions precluding organized thunderstorm activity throughout the period. A warm and moist air mass across south FL, coupled with strong daytime heating, will result in a few showers and perhaps a lightning flash. Strong onshore flow and cold mid-level temperatures could also result in a lightning flash along the coast of WA/OR. In both places, very weak thermodynamic parameters suggest the threat is below 10%. Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0153 PM CST Mon Feb 03 2025 Valid 032000Z - 041200Z ...NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorms are not forecast across the contiguous United States through tonight. ...20z Update... No changes are needed to the D1 Convective Outlook. See previous discussion below for more information. ..Thornton.. 02/03/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1015 AM CST Mon Feb 03 2025/ Fast zonal flow is present today across the northern 2/3rds of the CONUS, with dry and stable conditions precluding organized thunderstorm activity throughout the period. A warm and moist air mass across south FL, coupled with strong daytime heating, will result in a few showers and perhaps a lightning flash. Strong onshore flow and cold mid-level temperatures could also result in a lightning flash along the coast of WA/OR. In both places, very weak thermodynamic parameters suggest the threat is below 10%. Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0153 PM CST Mon Feb 03 2025 Valid 032000Z - 041200Z ...NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorms are not forecast across the contiguous United States through tonight. ...20z Update... No changes are needed to the D1 Convective Outlook. See previous discussion below for more information. ..Thornton.. 02/03/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1015 AM CST Mon Feb 03 2025/ Fast zonal flow is present today across the northern 2/3rds of the CONUS, with dry and stable conditions precluding organized thunderstorm activity throughout the period. A warm and moist air mass across south FL, coupled with strong daytime heating, will result in a few showers and perhaps a lightning flash. Strong onshore flow and cold mid-level temperatures could also result in a lightning flash along the coast of WA/OR. In both places, very weak thermodynamic parameters suggest the threat is below 10%. Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0153 PM CST Mon Feb 03 2025 Valid 032000Z - 041200Z ...NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorms are not forecast across the contiguous United States through tonight. ...20z Update... No changes are needed to the D1 Convective Outlook. See previous discussion below for more information. ..Thornton.. 02/03/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1015 AM CST Mon Feb 03 2025/ Fast zonal flow is present today across the northern 2/3rds of the CONUS, with dry and stable conditions precluding organized thunderstorm activity throughout the period. A warm and moist air mass across south FL, coupled with strong daytime heating, will result in a few showers and perhaps a lightning flash. Strong onshore flow and cold mid-level temperatures could also result in a lightning flash along the coast of WA/OR. In both places, very weak thermodynamic parameters suggest the threat is below 10%. Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0153 PM CST Mon Feb 03 2025 Valid 032000Z - 041200Z ...NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorms are not forecast across the contiguous United States through tonight. ...20z Update... No changes are needed to the D1 Convective Outlook. See previous discussion below for more information. ..Thornton.. 02/03/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1015 AM CST Mon Feb 03 2025/ Fast zonal flow is present today across the northern 2/3rds of the CONUS, with dry and stable conditions precluding organized thunderstorm activity throughout the period. A warm and moist air mass across south FL, coupled with strong daytime heating, will result in a few showers and perhaps a lightning flash. Strong onshore flow and cold mid-level temperatures could also result in a lightning flash along the coast of WA/OR. In both places, very weak thermodynamic parameters suggest the threat is below 10%. Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0153 PM CST Mon Feb 03 2025 Valid 032000Z - 041200Z ...NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorms are not forecast across the contiguous United States through tonight. ...20z Update... No changes are needed to the D1 Convective Outlook. See previous discussion below for more information. ..Thornton.. 02/03/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1015 AM CST Mon Feb 03 2025/ Fast zonal flow is present today across the northern 2/3rds of the CONUS, with dry and stable conditions precluding organized thunderstorm activity throughout the period. A warm and moist air mass across south FL, coupled with strong daytime heating, will result in a few showers and perhaps a lightning flash. Strong onshore flow and cold mid-level temperatures could also result in a lightning flash along the coast of WA/OR. In both places, very weak thermodynamic parameters suggest the threat is below 10%. Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0153 PM CST Mon Feb 03 2025 Valid 032000Z - 041200Z ...NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorms are not forecast across the contiguous United States through tonight. ...20z Update... No changes are needed to the D1 Convective Outlook. See previous discussion below for more information. ..Thornton.. 02/03/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1015 AM CST Mon Feb 03 2025/ Fast zonal flow is present today across the northern 2/3rds of the CONUS, with dry and stable conditions precluding organized thunderstorm activity throughout the period. A warm and moist air mass across south FL, coupled with strong daytime heating, will result in a few showers and perhaps a lightning flash. Strong onshore flow and cold mid-level temperatures could also result in a lightning flash along the coast of WA/OR. In both places, very weak thermodynamic parameters suggest the threat is below 10%. Read more

SPC 1930Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0126 PM CST Mon Feb 03 2025 Valid 051200Z - 061200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... The risk for severe thunderstorms appears negligible across the U.S., Wednesday through Wednesday night. ...Discussion... Although the northeastern Pacific blocking high may undergo some suppression during this period, models indicate that downstream mid-level troughing will be maintained near/offshore of the U.S. Pacific coast. However, it does appear that one substantive short wave perturbation emerging from this regime will continue inland across the northern Rockies, and suppress large-scale downstream ridging initially across the northern Great Plains into Great Lakes region. This is likely to be preceded by a less prominent perturbation (of southern mid-latitude Pacific origin), migrating across the central Great Plains through southern Great Lakes/Ohio Valley vicinity by 12Z Thursday, around the northern periphery of low-amplitude large-scale ridging in lower latitudes. Beneath this regime, seasonably cold air associated with an ongoing cold intrusion may still be entrenched as far south as portions of the central into southern Great Plains, middle Mississippi and Ohio Valleys and Mid Atlantic at the outset of the period, before undergoing further erosion from southwest to northeast Wednesday through Wednesday night. Along the associated initially stalled sharp surface frontal zone, models indicate that forcing associated with the lead short wave impulse will support a deepening wave somewhere across the Ozark Plateau into lower Great Lakes vicinity. Due to the differing handling of the ongoing intrusion of arctic air, there remains sizable model spread and uncertainty concerning this frontal wave, and the degree of boundary-layer modification within its evolving warm sector. Even weak boundary-layer destabilization occurring in relatively close proximity to this wave probably will be accompanied by at least a conditional risk for severe storms, given the likelihood of strong shear. However, with latest NAM forecast soundings generally maintaining a notable surface-based stable layer and modest mid-level lapse rates, where forcing for ascent is likely to aid convective development, the risk for severe weather still appears negligible through this period. ..Kerr.. 02/03/2025 Read more

SPC 1930Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0126 PM CST Mon Feb 03 2025 Valid 051200Z - 061200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... The risk for severe thunderstorms appears negligible across the U.S., Wednesday through Wednesday night. ...Discussion... Although the northeastern Pacific blocking high may undergo some suppression during this period, models indicate that downstream mid-level troughing will be maintained near/offshore of the U.S. Pacific coast. However, it does appear that one substantive short wave perturbation emerging from this regime will continue inland across the northern Rockies, and suppress large-scale downstream ridging initially across the northern Great Plains into Great Lakes region. This is likely to be preceded by a less prominent perturbation (of southern mid-latitude Pacific origin), migrating across the central Great Plains through southern Great Lakes/Ohio Valley vicinity by 12Z Thursday, around the northern periphery of low-amplitude large-scale ridging in lower latitudes. Beneath this regime, seasonably cold air associated with an ongoing cold intrusion may still be entrenched as far south as portions of the central into southern Great Plains, middle Mississippi and Ohio Valleys and Mid Atlantic at the outset of the period, before undergoing further erosion from southwest to northeast Wednesday through Wednesday night. Along the associated initially stalled sharp surface frontal zone, models indicate that forcing associated with the lead short wave impulse will support a deepening wave somewhere across the Ozark Plateau into lower Great Lakes vicinity. Due to the differing handling of the ongoing intrusion of arctic air, there remains sizable model spread and uncertainty concerning this frontal wave, and the degree of boundary-layer modification within its evolving warm sector. Even weak boundary-layer destabilization occurring in relatively close proximity to this wave probably will be accompanied by at least a conditional risk for severe storms, given the likelihood of strong shear. However, with latest NAM forecast soundings generally maintaining a notable surface-based stable layer and modest mid-level lapse rates, where forcing for ascent is likely to aid convective development, the risk for severe weather still appears negligible through this period. ..Kerr.. 02/03/2025 Read more

SPC 1930Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0126 PM CST Mon Feb 03 2025 Valid 051200Z - 061200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... The risk for severe thunderstorms appears negligible across the U.S., Wednesday through Wednesday night. ...Discussion... Although the northeastern Pacific blocking high may undergo some suppression during this period, models indicate that downstream mid-level troughing will be maintained near/offshore of the U.S. Pacific coast. However, it does appear that one substantive short wave perturbation emerging from this regime will continue inland across the northern Rockies, and suppress large-scale downstream ridging initially across the northern Great Plains into Great Lakes region. This is likely to be preceded by a less prominent perturbation (of southern mid-latitude Pacific origin), migrating across the central Great Plains through southern Great Lakes/Ohio Valley vicinity by 12Z Thursday, around the northern periphery of low-amplitude large-scale ridging in lower latitudes. Beneath this regime, seasonably cold air associated with an ongoing cold intrusion may still be entrenched as far south as portions of the central into southern Great Plains, middle Mississippi and Ohio Valleys and Mid Atlantic at the outset of the period, before undergoing further erosion from southwest to northeast Wednesday through Wednesday night. Along the associated initially stalled sharp surface frontal zone, models indicate that forcing associated with the lead short wave impulse will support a deepening wave somewhere across the Ozark Plateau into lower Great Lakes vicinity. Due to the differing handling of the ongoing intrusion of arctic air, there remains sizable model spread and uncertainty concerning this frontal wave, and the degree of boundary-layer modification within its evolving warm sector. Even weak boundary-layer destabilization occurring in relatively close proximity to this wave probably will be accompanied by at least a conditional risk for severe storms, given the likelihood of strong shear. However, with latest NAM forecast soundings generally maintaining a notable surface-based stable layer and modest mid-level lapse rates, where forcing for ascent is likely to aid convective development, the risk for severe weather still appears negligible through this period. ..Kerr.. 02/03/2025 Read more

SPC 1930Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0126 PM CST Mon Feb 03 2025 Valid 051200Z - 061200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... The risk for severe thunderstorms appears negligible across the U.S., Wednesday through Wednesday night. ...Discussion... Although the northeastern Pacific blocking high may undergo some suppression during this period, models indicate that downstream mid-level troughing will be maintained near/offshore of the U.S. Pacific coast. However, it does appear that one substantive short wave perturbation emerging from this regime will continue inland across the northern Rockies, and suppress large-scale downstream ridging initially across the northern Great Plains into Great Lakes region. This is likely to be preceded by a less prominent perturbation (of southern mid-latitude Pacific origin), migrating across the central Great Plains through southern Great Lakes/Ohio Valley vicinity by 12Z Thursday, around the northern periphery of low-amplitude large-scale ridging in lower latitudes. Beneath this regime, seasonably cold air associated with an ongoing cold intrusion may still be entrenched as far south as portions of the central into southern Great Plains, middle Mississippi and Ohio Valleys and Mid Atlantic at the outset of the period, before undergoing further erosion from southwest to northeast Wednesday through Wednesday night. Along the associated initially stalled sharp surface frontal zone, models indicate that forcing associated with the lead short wave impulse will support a deepening wave somewhere across the Ozark Plateau into lower Great Lakes vicinity. Due to the differing handling of the ongoing intrusion of arctic air, there remains sizable model spread and uncertainty concerning this frontal wave, and the degree of boundary-layer modification within its evolving warm sector. Even weak boundary-layer destabilization occurring in relatively close proximity to this wave probably will be accompanied by at least a conditional risk for severe storms, given the likelihood of strong shear. However, with latest NAM forecast soundings generally maintaining a notable surface-based stable layer and modest mid-level lapse rates, where forcing for ascent is likely to aid convective development, the risk for severe weather still appears negligible through this period. ..Kerr.. 02/03/2025 Read more

SPC 1930Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0126 PM CST Mon Feb 03 2025 Valid 051200Z - 061200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... The risk for severe thunderstorms appears negligible across the U.S., Wednesday through Wednesday night. ...Discussion... Although the northeastern Pacific blocking high may undergo some suppression during this period, models indicate that downstream mid-level troughing will be maintained near/offshore of the U.S. Pacific coast. However, it does appear that one substantive short wave perturbation emerging from this regime will continue inland across the northern Rockies, and suppress large-scale downstream ridging initially across the northern Great Plains into Great Lakes region. This is likely to be preceded by a less prominent perturbation (of southern mid-latitude Pacific origin), migrating across the central Great Plains through southern Great Lakes/Ohio Valley vicinity by 12Z Thursday, around the northern periphery of low-amplitude large-scale ridging in lower latitudes. Beneath this regime, seasonably cold air associated with an ongoing cold intrusion may still be entrenched as far south as portions of the central into southern Great Plains, middle Mississippi and Ohio Valleys and Mid Atlantic at the outset of the period, before undergoing further erosion from southwest to northeast Wednesday through Wednesday night. Along the associated initially stalled sharp surface frontal zone, models indicate that forcing associated with the lead short wave impulse will support a deepening wave somewhere across the Ozark Plateau into lower Great Lakes vicinity. Due to the differing handling of the ongoing intrusion of arctic air, there remains sizable model spread and uncertainty concerning this frontal wave, and the degree of boundary-layer modification within its evolving warm sector. Even weak boundary-layer destabilization occurring in relatively close proximity to this wave probably will be accompanied by at least a conditional risk for severe storms, given the likelihood of strong shear. However, with latest NAM forecast soundings generally maintaining a notable surface-based stable layer and modest mid-level lapse rates, where forcing for ascent is likely to aid convective development, the risk for severe weather still appears negligible through this period. ..Kerr.. 02/03/2025 Read more

SPC 1930Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0126 PM CST Mon Feb 03 2025 Valid 051200Z - 061200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... The risk for severe thunderstorms appears negligible across the U.S., Wednesday through Wednesday night. ...Discussion... Although the northeastern Pacific blocking high may undergo some suppression during this period, models indicate that downstream mid-level troughing will be maintained near/offshore of the U.S. Pacific coast. However, it does appear that one substantive short wave perturbation emerging from this regime will continue inland across the northern Rockies, and suppress large-scale downstream ridging initially across the northern Great Plains into Great Lakes region. This is likely to be preceded by a less prominent perturbation (of southern mid-latitude Pacific origin), migrating across the central Great Plains through southern Great Lakes/Ohio Valley vicinity by 12Z Thursday, around the northern periphery of low-amplitude large-scale ridging in lower latitudes. Beneath this regime, seasonably cold air associated with an ongoing cold intrusion may still be entrenched as far south as portions of the central into southern Great Plains, middle Mississippi and Ohio Valleys and Mid Atlantic at the outset of the period, before undergoing further erosion from southwest to northeast Wednesday through Wednesday night. Along the associated initially stalled sharp surface frontal zone, models indicate that forcing associated with the lead short wave impulse will support a deepening wave somewhere across the Ozark Plateau into lower Great Lakes vicinity. Due to the differing handling of the ongoing intrusion of arctic air, there remains sizable model spread and uncertainty concerning this frontal wave, and the degree of boundary-layer modification within its evolving warm sector. Even weak boundary-layer destabilization occurring in relatively close proximity to this wave probably will be accompanied by at least a conditional risk for severe storms, given the likelihood of strong shear. However, with latest NAM forecast soundings generally maintaining a notable surface-based stable layer and modest mid-level lapse rates, where forcing for ascent is likely to aid convective development, the risk for severe weather still appears negligible through this period. ..Kerr.. 02/03/2025 Read more