Severe Storms

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0250 PM CST Tue Feb 04 2025 Valid 061200Z - 121200Z Fire weather concerns will remain focused across the southern High Plains through the upcoming weekend. Long-range ensemble guidance continues to suggest that dry conditions will prevail across the southern High Plains for the next several days as an anomalously strong upper-level ridge over the south-central CONUS gradually breaks down. Periods of breezy conditions are anticipated as low-amplitude upper disturbances traverse the central Rockies through the late week/weekend period. Modest lee troughing will promote westerly downslope winds off the central/southern Rockies. The combination of dry air advection and downslope warming/drying will help maintain a dry air mass with daily RH minimums in the teens to low 20s. While localized elevated conditions appear possible each day during the D3/Thu through D5/Sat period, ensemble guidance suggests the strongest lee trough/cyclone will likely develop on D4/Fri afternoon across eastern CO, supporting a higher probability for achieving critical (20+ mph) winds across eastern NM and parts of western TX. A cold frontal passage on D6/Sun will usher in a cold continental air mass to much of the central/southern Plains, limiting further fire concerns heading into early next week. ..Moore.. 02/04/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0250 PM CST Tue Feb 04 2025 Valid 061200Z - 121200Z Fire weather concerns will remain focused across the southern High Plains through the upcoming weekend. Long-range ensemble guidance continues to suggest that dry conditions will prevail across the southern High Plains for the next several days as an anomalously strong upper-level ridge over the south-central CONUS gradually breaks down. Periods of breezy conditions are anticipated as low-amplitude upper disturbances traverse the central Rockies through the late week/weekend period. Modest lee troughing will promote westerly downslope winds off the central/southern Rockies. The combination of dry air advection and downslope warming/drying will help maintain a dry air mass with daily RH minimums in the teens to low 20s. While localized elevated conditions appear possible each day during the D3/Thu through D5/Sat period, ensemble guidance suggests the strongest lee trough/cyclone will likely develop on D4/Fri afternoon across eastern CO, supporting a higher probability for achieving critical (20+ mph) winds across eastern NM and parts of western TX. A cold frontal passage on D6/Sun will usher in a cold continental air mass to much of the central/southern Plains, limiting further fire concerns heading into early next week. ..Moore.. 02/04/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0250 PM CST Tue Feb 04 2025 Valid 061200Z - 121200Z Fire weather concerns will remain focused across the southern High Plains through the upcoming weekend. Long-range ensemble guidance continues to suggest that dry conditions will prevail across the southern High Plains for the next several days as an anomalously strong upper-level ridge over the south-central CONUS gradually breaks down. Periods of breezy conditions are anticipated as low-amplitude upper disturbances traverse the central Rockies through the late week/weekend period. Modest lee troughing will promote westerly downslope winds off the central/southern Rockies. The combination of dry air advection and downslope warming/drying will help maintain a dry air mass with daily RH minimums in the teens to low 20s. While localized elevated conditions appear possible each day during the D3/Thu through D5/Sat period, ensemble guidance suggests the strongest lee trough/cyclone will likely develop on D4/Fri afternoon across eastern CO, supporting a higher probability for achieving critical (20+ mph) winds across eastern NM and parts of western TX. A cold frontal passage on D6/Sun will usher in a cold continental air mass to much of the central/southern Plains, limiting further fire concerns heading into early next week. ..Moore.. 02/04/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0250 PM CST Tue Feb 04 2025 Valid 061200Z - 121200Z Fire weather concerns will remain focused across the southern High Plains through the upcoming weekend. Long-range ensemble guidance continues to suggest that dry conditions will prevail across the southern High Plains for the next several days as an anomalously strong upper-level ridge over the south-central CONUS gradually breaks down. Periods of breezy conditions are anticipated as low-amplitude upper disturbances traverse the central Rockies through the late week/weekend period. Modest lee troughing will promote westerly downslope winds off the central/southern Rockies. The combination of dry air advection and downslope warming/drying will help maintain a dry air mass with daily RH minimums in the teens to low 20s. While localized elevated conditions appear possible each day during the D3/Thu through D5/Sat period, ensemble guidance suggests the strongest lee trough/cyclone will likely develop on D4/Fri afternoon across eastern CO, supporting a higher probability for achieving critical (20+ mph) winds across eastern NM and parts of western TX. A cold frontal passage on D6/Sun will usher in a cold continental air mass to much of the central/southern Plains, limiting further fire concerns heading into early next week. ..Moore.. 02/04/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0250 PM CST Tue Feb 04 2025 Valid 061200Z - 121200Z Fire weather concerns will remain focused across the southern High Plains through the upcoming weekend. Long-range ensemble guidance continues to suggest that dry conditions will prevail across the southern High Plains for the next several days as an anomalously strong upper-level ridge over the south-central CONUS gradually breaks down. Periods of breezy conditions are anticipated as low-amplitude upper disturbances traverse the central Rockies through the late week/weekend period. Modest lee troughing will promote westerly downslope winds off the central/southern Rockies. The combination of dry air advection and downslope warming/drying will help maintain a dry air mass with daily RH minimums in the teens to low 20s. While localized elevated conditions appear possible each day during the D3/Thu through D5/Sat period, ensemble guidance suggests the strongest lee trough/cyclone will likely develop on D4/Fri afternoon across eastern CO, supporting a higher probability for achieving critical (20+ mph) winds across eastern NM and parts of western TX. A cold frontal passage on D6/Sun will usher in a cold continental air mass to much of the central/southern Plains, limiting further fire concerns heading into early next week. ..Moore.. 02/04/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0151 PM CST Tue Feb 04 2025 Valid 042000Z - 051200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Isolated thunderstorms will be possible across northern/central California this afternoon and evening. ...Synopsis... A mid-level trough continues to approach the CA coastline, along with cooler temperatures aloft, which are poised to overspread a marginally warm and moist low-level airmass later this evening and tonight. A broad precipitation band, with embedded low-topped convection, is still expected to traverse central CA with the aforementioned cooler temperatures aloft, supporting scant buoyancy and the chance for a few lightning flashes. A couple of lightning flashes also cannot be ruled out over portions of the Intermountain West or the WA/OR coastline, as mid-level impulses pass over these regions later tonight. Even so, overall lack of buoyancy suggests that lightning flashes in these regions should remain too sparse to warrant thunder probabilities at this time. ..Squitieri.. 02/04/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1021 AM CST Tue Feb 04 2025/ ...Northern/Central CA... Morning water vapor imagery shows a shortwave trough approaching the coast of northern CA. An associated surface cold front is also moving southeastward into northern CA, with an increasingly large shield of showers along/ahead of the front. Forecast soundings show the development of very weak CAPE later today, which could result in a few lightning flashes within the embedded precip shield. No severe storms are expected. Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0151 PM CST Tue Feb 04 2025 Valid 042000Z - 051200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Isolated thunderstorms will be possible across northern/central California this afternoon and evening. ...Synopsis... A mid-level trough continues to approach the CA coastline, along with cooler temperatures aloft, which are poised to overspread a marginally warm and moist low-level airmass later this evening and tonight. A broad precipitation band, with embedded low-topped convection, is still expected to traverse central CA with the aforementioned cooler temperatures aloft, supporting scant buoyancy and the chance for a few lightning flashes. A couple of lightning flashes also cannot be ruled out over portions of the Intermountain West or the WA/OR coastline, as mid-level impulses pass over these regions later tonight. Even so, overall lack of buoyancy suggests that lightning flashes in these regions should remain too sparse to warrant thunder probabilities at this time. ..Squitieri.. 02/04/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1021 AM CST Tue Feb 04 2025/ ...Northern/Central CA... Morning water vapor imagery shows a shortwave trough approaching the coast of northern CA. An associated surface cold front is also moving southeastward into northern CA, with an increasingly large shield of showers along/ahead of the front. Forecast soundings show the development of very weak CAPE later today, which could result in a few lightning flashes within the embedded precip shield. No severe storms are expected. Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0151 PM CST Tue Feb 04 2025 Valid 042000Z - 051200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Isolated thunderstorms will be possible across northern/central California this afternoon and evening. ...Synopsis... A mid-level trough continues to approach the CA coastline, along with cooler temperatures aloft, which are poised to overspread a marginally warm and moist low-level airmass later this evening and tonight. A broad precipitation band, with embedded low-topped convection, is still expected to traverse central CA with the aforementioned cooler temperatures aloft, supporting scant buoyancy and the chance for a few lightning flashes. A couple of lightning flashes also cannot be ruled out over portions of the Intermountain West or the WA/OR coastline, as mid-level impulses pass over these regions later tonight. Even so, overall lack of buoyancy suggests that lightning flashes in these regions should remain too sparse to warrant thunder probabilities at this time. ..Squitieri.. 02/04/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1021 AM CST Tue Feb 04 2025/ ...Northern/Central CA... Morning water vapor imagery shows a shortwave trough approaching the coast of northern CA. An associated surface cold front is also moving southeastward into northern CA, with an increasingly large shield of showers along/ahead of the front. Forecast soundings show the development of very weak CAPE later today, which could result in a few lightning flashes within the embedded precip shield. No severe storms are expected. Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0151 PM CST Tue Feb 04 2025 Valid 042000Z - 051200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Isolated thunderstorms will be possible across northern/central California this afternoon and evening. ...Synopsis... A mid-level trough continues to approach the CA coastline, along with cooler temperatures aloft, which are poised to overspread a marginally warm and moist low-level airmass later this evening and tonight. A broad precipitation band, with embedded low-topped convection, is still expected to traverse central CA with the aforementioned cooler temperatures aloft, supporting scant buoyancy and the chance for a few lightning flashes. A couple of lightning flashes also cannot be ruled out over portions of the Intermountain West or the WA/OR coastline, as mid-level impulses pass over these regions later tonight. Even so, overall lack of buoyancy suggests that lightning flashes in these regions should remain too sparse to warrant thunder probabilities at this time. ..Squitieri.. 02/04/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1021 AM CST Tue Feb 04 2025/ ...Northern/Central CA... Morning water vapor imagery shows a shortwave trough approaching the coast of northern CA. An associated surface cold front is also moving southeastward into northern CA, with an increasingly large shield of showers along/ahead of the front. Forecast soundings show the development of very weak CAPE later today, which could result in a few lightning flashes within the embedded precip shield. No severe storms are expected. Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0151 PM CST Tue Feb 04 2025 Valid 042000Z - 051200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Isolated thunderstorms will be possible across northern/central California this afternoon and evening. ...Synopsis... A mid-level trough continues to approach the CA coastline, along with cooler temperatures aloft, which are poised to overspread a marginally warm and moist low-level airmass later this evening and tonight. A broad precipitation band, with embedded low-topped convection, is still expected to traverse central CA with the aforementioned cooler temperatures aloft, supporting scant buoyancy and the chance for a few lightning flashes. A couple of lightning flashes also cannot be ruled out over portions of the Intermountain West or the WA/OR coastline, as mid-level impulses pass over these regions later tonight. Even so, overall lack of buoyancy suggests that lightning flashes in these regions should remain too sparse to warrant thunder probabilities at this time. ..Squitieri.. 02/04/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1021 AM CST Tue Feb 04 2025/ ...Northern/Central CA... Morning water vapor imagery shows a shortwave trough approaching the coast of northern CA. An associated surface cold front is also moving southeastward into northern CA, with an increasingly large shield of showers along/ahead of the front. Forecast soundings show the development of very weak CAPE later today, which could result in a few lightning flashes within the embedded precip shield. No severe storms are expected. Read more

SPC 1930Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0110 PM CST Tue Feb 04 2025 Valid 061200Z - 071200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe weather is not expected across the U.S. on Thursday. ...Synopsis and Discussion... A low-amplitude wave will quickly move out of the upper OH Valley and weaken as it moves into the Northeast. Behind this feature, a strong shortwave trough will move eastward across the Great Lakes. To the west, a trough will drop south toward CA then move across the Great Basin and into the central Rockies by Saturday morning. At the surface, high pressure will remain over the Southeast, but a low-level moist plume will remain ahead of a cold front from KY into WV. Western parts of this front will stall as low pressure quickly moves from OH across southern New England. Rain and primarily elevated thunderstorms are expected from the OH valley eastward toward the Mid Atlantic, as westerly flow brings midlevel moisture eastward. However, drying will occur rapidly behind the shortwave trough. ..Jewell.. 02/04/2025 Read more

SPC 1930Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0110 PM CST Tue Feb 04 2025 Valid 061200Z - 071200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe weather is not expected across the U.S. on Thursday. ...Synopsis and Discussion... A low-amplitude wave will quickly move out of the upper OH Valley and weaken as it moves into the Northeast. Behind this feature, a strong shortwave trough will move eastward across the Great Lakes. To the west, a trough will drop south toward CA then move across the Great Basin and into the central Rockies by Saturday morning. At the surface, high pressure will remain over the Southeast, but a low-level moist plume will remain ahead of a cold front from KY into WV. Western parts of this front will stall as low pressure quickly moves from OH across southern New England. Rain and primarily elevated thunderstorms are expected from the OH valley eastward toward the Mid Atlantic, as westerly flow brings midlevel moisture eastward. However, drying will occur rapidly behind the shortwave trough. ..Jewell.. 02/04/2025 Read more

SPC 1930Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0110 PM CST Tue Feb 04 2025 Valid 061200Z - 071200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe weather is not expected across the U.S. on Thursday. ...Synopsis and Discussion... A low-amplitude wave will quickly move out of the upper OH Valley and weaken as it moves into the Northeast. Behind this feature, a strong shortwave trough will move eastward across the Great Lakes. To the west, a trough will drop south toward CA then move across the Great Basin and into the central Rockies by Saturday morning. At the surface, high pressure will remain over the Southeast, but a low-level moist plume will remain ahead of a cold front from KY into WV. Western parts of this front will stall as low pressure quickly moves from OH across southern New England. Rain and primarily elevated thunderstorms are expected from the OH valley eastward toward the Mid Atlantic, as westerly flow brings midlevel moisture eastward. However, drying will occur rapidly behind the shortwave trough. ..Jewell.. 02/04/2025 Read more

SPC 1930Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0110 PM CST Tue Feb 04 2025 Valid 061200Z - 071200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe weather is not expected across the U.S. on Thursday. ...Synopsis and Discussion... A low-amplitude wave will quickly move out of the upper OH Valley and weaken as it moves into the Northeast. Behind this feature, a strong shortwave trough will move eastward across the Great Lakes. To the west, a trough will drop south toward CA then move across the Great Basin and into the central Rockies by Saturday morning. At the surface, high pressure will remain over the Southeast, but a low-level moist plume will remain ahead of a cold front from KY into WV. Western parts of this front will stall as low pressure quickly moves from OH across southern New England. Rain and primarily elevated thunderstorms are expected from the OH valley eastward toward the Mid Atlantic, as westerly flow brings midlevel moisture eastward. However, drying will occur rapidly behind the shortwave trough. ..Jewell.. 02/04/2025 Read more

SPC 1930Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0110 PM CST Tue Feb 04 2025 Valid 061200Z - 071200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe weather is not expected across the U.S. on Thursday. ...Synopsis and Discussion... A low-amplitude wave will quickly move out of the upper OH Valley and weaken as it moves into the Northeast. Behind this feature, a strong shortwave trough will move eastward across the Great Lakes. To the west, a trough will drop south toward CA then move across the Great Basin and into the central Rockies by Saturday morning. At the surface, high pressure will remain over the Southeast, but a low-level moist plume will remain ahead of a cold front from KY into WV. Western parts of this front will stall as low pressure quickly moves from OH across southern New England. Rain and primarily elevated thunderstorms are expected from the OH valley eastward toward the Mid Atlantic, as westerly flow brings midlevel moisture eastward. However, drying will occur rapidly behind the shortwave trough. ..Jewell.. 02/04/2025 Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0103 PM CST Tue Feb 04 2025 Valid 051200Z - 061200Z Elevated fire weather concerns remain likely across the Southwest and southern High Plains tomorrow. The primary forecast amendment for this update was to introduce an Elevated risk area across east-central AZ into western NM. Recent guidance has trended towards drier/windier conditions along and north of the Mogollon Rim and within the Gila region of southwest NM. Sustained winds within, and in the lee of, the higher terrain should peak between 15-25 mph by late afternoon as stronger mid-level winds mix to the surface. Ample heating/mixing should promote RH reductions into the teens to upper single digits. Increasing winds with falling RH, coupled with antecedent drought conditions, should sufficiently dry finer fuels to support a fire weather concern. Only minor modifications were made to the existing Elevated risk area across the southern High Plains - mainly to account for the potential for strong winds and dry downslope conditions northward across central CO in the lee of the Rockies. Consideration was given for introducing a Critical risk area across east-central/northeast NM where winds should be sustained near 25-30 mph in closer proximity to the deepening surface low. However, spread in guidance regarding the coverage of such winds, and uncertainty regarding fuel status with northward extent, precluded additional highlights for this update. ..Moore.. 02/04/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0201 AM CST Tue Feb 04 2025/ ...Synopsis... Enhanced mid-level flow over the Western US is forecast to shift eastward as a shortwave trough spills over the Rockies and into the Plains Wednesday. As the upper trough approaches, a lee low should deepen over eastern CO, supporting stronger west/southwesterly winds over much of the High Plains. Continued dry conditions and the increase in winds favors some potential for elevated fire-weather concerns. ...Southern High Plains... As the shortwave trough and stronger mid-level flow cross the central Rockies, a lee low should intensify over eastern CO. Behind the surface low, west/southwesterly downslope flow, aided by fairly strong mid-level flow, is expected across much of the southern High Plains. Gusty surface winds of 15-25 mph and higher gusts are possible across parts of eastern NM and western TX. Dry conditions are also expected, with RH reductions falling to near/below 20% likely from dry continental trajectories and warm temperatures. Elevated fire-weather conditions appear likely for a few hours over parts of eastern NM and West TX where several days of drying have resulted in more receptive fuels. Some localized critical conditions are also possible, mainly over eastern NM, where larger drier and more dense fuels loads could intersect with the stronger gusts and lower RH. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0103 PM CST Tue Feb 04 2025 Valid 051200Z - 061200Z Elevated fire weather concerns remain likely across the Southwest and southern High Plains tomorrow. The primary forecast amendment for this update was to introduce an Elevated risk area across east-central AZ into western NM. Recent guidance has trended towards drier/windier conditions along and north of the Mogollon Rim and within the Gila region of southwest NM. Sustained winds within, and in the lee of, the higher terrain should peak between 15-25 mph by late afternoon as stronger mid-level winds mix to the surface. Ample heating/mixing should promote RH reductions into the teens to upper single digits. Increasing winds with falling RH, coupled with antecedent drought conditions, should sufficiently dry finer fuels to support a fire weather concern. Only minor modifications were made to the existing Elevated risk area across the southern High Plains - mainly to account for the potential for strong winds and dry downslope conditions northward across central CO in the lee of the Rockies. Consideration was given for introducing a Critical risk area across east-central/northeast NM where winds should be sustained near 25-30 mph in closer proximity to the deepening surface low. However, spread in guidance regarding the coverage of such winds, and uncertainty regarding fuel status with northward extent, precluded additional highlights for this update. ..Moore.. 02/04/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0201 AM CST Tue Feb 04 2025/ ...Synopsis... Enhanced mid-level flow over the Western US is forecast to shift eastward as a shortwave trough spills over the Rockies and into the Plains Wednesday. As the upper trough approaches, a lee low should deepen over eastern CO, supporting stronger west/southwesterly winds over much of the High Plains. Continued dry conditions and the increase in winds favors some potential for elevated fire-weather concerns. ...Southern High Plains... As the shortwave trough and stronger mid-level flow cross the central Rockies, a lee low should intensify over eastern CO. Behind the surface low, west/southwesterly downslope flow, aided by fairly strong mid-level flow, is expected across much of the southern High Plains. Gusty surface winds of 15-25 mph and higher gusts are possible across parts of eastern NM and western TX. Dry conditions are also expected, with RH reductions falling to near/below 20% likely from dry continental trajectories and warm temperatures. Elevated fire-weather conditions appear likely for a few hours over parts of eastern NM and West TX where several days of drying have resulted in more receptive fuels. Some localized critical conditions are also possible, mainly over eastern NM, where larger drier and more dense fuels loads could intersect with the stronger gusts and lower RH. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0103 PM CST Tue Feb 04 2025 Valid 051200Z - 061200Z Elevated fire weather concerns remain likely across the Southwest and southern High Plains tomorrow. The primary forecast amendment for this update was to introduce an Elevated risk area across east-central AZ into western NM. Recent guidance has trended towards drier/windier conditions along and north of the Mogollon Rim and within the Gila region of southwest NM. Sustained winds within, and in the lee of, the higher terrain should peak between 15-25 mph by late afternoon as stronger mid-level winds mix to the surface. Ample heating/mixing should promote RH reductions into the teens to upper single digits. Increasing winds with falling RH, coupled with antecedent drought conditions, should sufficiently dry finer fuels to support a fire weather concern. Only minor modifications were made to the existing Elevated risk area across the southern High Plains - mainly to account for the potential for strong winds and dry downslope conditions northward across central CO in the lee of the Rockies. Consideration was given for introducing a Critical risk area across east-central/northeast NM where winds should be sustained near 25-30 mph in closer proximity to the deepening surface low. However, spread in guidance regarding the coverage of such winds, and uncertainty regarding fuel status with northward extent, precluded additional highlights for this update. ..Moore.. 02/04/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0201 AM CST Tue Feb 04 2025/ ...Synopsis... Enhanced mid-level flow over the Western US is forecast to shift eastward as a shortwave trough spills over the Rockies and into the Plains Wednesday. As the upper trough approaches, a lee low should deepen over eastern CO, supporting stronger west/southwesterly winds over much of the High Plains. Continued dry conditions and the increase in winds favors some potential for elevated fire-weather concerns. ...Southern High Plains... As the shortwave trough and stronger mid-level flow cross the central Rockies, a lee low should intensify over eastern CO. Behind the surface low, west/southwesterly downslope flow, aided by fairly strong mid-level flow, is expected across much of the southern High Plains. Gusty surface winds of 15-25 mph and higher gusts are possible across parts of eastern NM and western TX. Dry conditions are also expected, with RH reductions falling to near/below 20% likely from dry continental trajectories and warm temperatures. Elevated fire-weather conditions appear likely for a few hours over parts of eastern NM and West TX where several days of drying have resulted in more receptive fuels. Some localized critical conditions are also possible, mainly over eastern NM, where larger drier and more dense fuels loads could intersect with the stronger gusts and lower RH. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0103 PM CST Tue Feb 04 2025 Valid 051200Z - 061200Z Elevated fire weather concerns remain likely across the Southwest and southern High Plains tomorrow. The primary forecast amendment for this update was to introduce an Elevated risk area across east-central AZ into western NM. Recent guidance has trended towards drier/windier conditions along and north of the Mogollon Rim and within the Gila region of southwest NM. Sustained winds within, and in the lee of, the higher terrain should peak between 15-25 mph by late afternoon as stronger mid-level winds mix to the surface. Ample heating/mixing should promote RH reductions into the teens to upper single digits. Increasing winds with falling RH, coupled with antecedent drought conditions, should sufficiently dry finer fuels to support a fire weather concern. Only minor modifications were made to the existing Elevated risk area across the southern High Plains - mainly to account for the potential for strong winds and dry downslope conditions northward across central CO in the lee of the Rockies. Consideration was given for introducing a Critical risk area across east-central/northeast NM where winds should be sustained near 25-30 mph in closer proximity to the deepening surface low. However, spread in guidance regarding the coverage of such winds, and uncertainty regarding fuel status with northward extent, precluded additional highlights for this update. ..Moore.. 02/04/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0201 AM CST Tue Feb 04 2025/ ...Synopsis... Enhanced mid-level flow over the Western US is forecast to shift eastward as a shortwave trough spills over the Rockies and into the Plains Wednesday. As the upper trough approaches, a lee low should deepen over eastern CO, supporting stronger west/southwesterly winds over much of the High Plains. Continued dry conditions and the increase in winds favors some potential for elevated fire-weather concerns. ...Southern High Plains... As the shortwave trough and stronger mid-level flow cross the central Rockies, a lee low should intensify over eastern CO. Behind the surface low, west/southwesterly downslope flow, aided by fairly strong mid-level flow, is expected across much of the southern High Plains. Gusty surface winds of 15-25 mph and higher gusts are possible across parts of eastern NM and western TX. Dry conditions are also expected, with RH reductions falling to near/below 20% likely from dry continental trajectories and warm temperatures. Elevated fire-weather conditions appear likely for a few hours over parts of eastern NM and West TX where several days of drying have resulted in more receptive fuels. Some localized critical conditions are also possible, mainly over eastern NM, where larger drier and more dense fuels loads could intersect with the stronger gusts and lower RH. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0103 PM CST Tue Feb 04 2025 Valid 051200Z - 061200Z Elevated fire weather concerns remain likely across the Southwest and southern High Plains tomorrow. The primary forecast amendment for this update was to introduce an Elevated risk area across east-central AZ into western NM. Recent guidance has trended towards drier/windier conditions along and north of the Mogollon Rim and within the Gila region of southwest NM. Sustained winds within, and in the lee of, the higher terrain should peak between 15-25 mph by late afternoon as stronger mid-level winds mix to the surface. Ample heating/mixing should promote RH reductions into the teens to upper single digits. Increasing winds with falling RH, coupled with antecedent drought conditions, should sufficiently dry finer fuels to support a fire weather concern. Only minor modifications were made to the existing Elevated risk area across the southern High Plains - mainly to account for the potential for strong winds and dry downslope conditions northward across central CO in the lee of the Rockies. Consideration was given for introducing a Critical risk area across east-central/northeast NM where winds should be sustained near 25-30 mph in closer proximity to the deepening surface low. However, spread in guidance regarding the coverage of such winds, and uncertainty regarding fuel status with northward extent, precluded additional highlights for this update. ..Moore.. 02/04/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0201 AM CST Tue Feb 04 2025/ ...Synopsis... Enhanced mid-level flow over the Western US is forecast to shift eastward as a shortwave trough spills over the Rockies and into the Plains Wednesday. As the upper trough approaches, a lee low should deepen over eastern CO, supporting stronger west/southwesterly winds over much of the High Plains. Continued dry conditions and the increase in winds favors some potential for elevated fire-weather concerns. ...Southern High Plains... As the shortwave trough and stronger mid-level flow cross the central Rockies, a lee low should intensify over eastern CO. Behind the surface low, west/southwesterly downslope flow, aided by fairly strong mid-level flow, is expected across much of the southern High Plains. Gusty surface winds of 15-25 mph and higher gusts are possible across parts of eastern NM and western TX. Dry conditions are also expected, with RH reductions falling to near/below 20% likely from dry continental trajectories and warm temperatures. Elevated fire-weather conditions appear likely for a few hours over parts of eastern NM and West TX where several days of drying have resulted in more receptive fuels. Some localized critical conditions are also possible, mainly over eastern NM, where larger drier and more dense fuels loads could intersect with the stronger gusts and lower RH. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more