Severe Storms

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0159 AM CST Tue Feb 04 2025 Valid 041200Z - 051200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... ...Synopsis... Ridging aloft is forecast to intensify over the central US, while a deepening trough moves over much of the West. Several embedded perturbations will cross the southern Rockies deepening a lee low over the southern High Plains and a second low over the Great Basin. This could support gusty winds and periods of locally elevated fire-weather potential over parts of central NM and eastern AZ. ...Southwest... A backdoor cold front will move south over the Plains and into eastern NM early this morning associated with a weak lee low. The influx of cooler air and more moisture should moderate RH over the High Plains. To the west over the High country of central NM, periodic gusty winds and low humidity are still expected to overlap for several hours. Some localized fire-weather risk is possible over central NM and eastern AZ. However, more widespread fire-weather concerns are not currently expected given the relatively minor overlap of sustained winds, low humidity and sporadic receptive fuels. ..Lyons.. 02/04/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0159 AM CST Tue Feb 04 2025 Valid 041200Z - 051200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... ...Synopsis... Ridging aloft is forecast to intensify over the central US, while a deepening trough moves over much of the West. Several embedded perturbations will cross the southern Rockies deepening a lee low over the southern High Plains and a second low over the Great Basin. This could support gusty winds and periods of locally elevated fire-weather potential over parts of central NM and eastern AZ. ...Southwest... A backdoor cold front will move south over the Plains and into eastern NM early this morning associated with a weak lee low. The influx of cooler air and more moisture should moderate RH over the High Plains. To the west over the High country of central NM, periodic gusty winds and low humidity are still expected to overlap for several hours. Some localized fire-weather risk is possible over central NM and eastern AZ. However, more widespread fire-weather concerns are not currently expected given the relatively minor overlap of sustained winds, low humidity and sporadic receptive fuels. ..Lyons.. 02/04/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0159 AM CST Tue Feb 04 2025 Valid 041200Z - 051200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... ...Synopsis... Ridging aloft is forecast to intensify over the central US, while a deepening trough moves over much of the West. Several embedded perturbations will cross the southern Rockies deepening a lee low over the southern High Plains and a second low over the Great Basin. This could support gusty winds and periods of locally elevated fire-weather potential over parts of central NM and eastern AZ. ...Southwest... A backdoor cold front will move south over the Plains and into eastern NM early this morning associated with a weak lee low. The influx of cooler air and more moisture should moderate RH over the High Plains. To the west over the High country of central NM, periodic gusty winds and low humidity are still expected to overlap for several hours. Some localized fire-weather risk is possible over central NM and eastern AZ. However, more widespread fire-weather concerns are not currently expected given the relatively minor overlap of sustained winds, low humidity and sporadic receptive fuels. ..Lyons.. 02/04/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC 0700Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0108 AM CST Tue Feb 04 2025 Valid 051200Z - 061200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE MISSISSIPPI DELTA REGION NORTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE TENNESSEE VALLEY AREA... ...SUMMARY... A couple of strong to potentially severe storms may occur across portions of the Mid South Wednesday. ...Synopsis... Within a background low-amplitude upper flow field, an embedded short-wave trough is forecast to shift across the Plains and into/across the Midwest/Ohio Valley region with time. As this occurs, a weak surface frontal wave along the lingering west-to-east baroclinic zone is expected to shift from the Oklahoma area during the afternoon, across the Mid Mississippi and later the Ohio Valley region. Showers and thunderstorms are expected across the Mid South region and vicinity, in response, particularly during the latter half of the period. ...Tennessee/Kentucky and vicinity... Convection is forecast to gradually increase into the afternoon and evening hours across the Mid and Lower Mississippi/Tennessee Valleys, and eventually Ohio Valley, with a broad zone of warm advection/quasigeostrophic forcing for ascent ahead of the advancing mid-level wave. While weak lapse rates and only partially modified low-level air will exist across the warm sector, shear will be favorable across the region for updraft organization. The lack of more substantial CAPE is expected to largely temper severe-weather potential, but a few stronger storms are expected, mainly from mid afternoon mid evening. Any vigorous/sustained updraft which can evolve, will be capable of producing gusty winds -- perhaps reaching severe levels locally. A brief tornado or two could also occur, given shear sufficient for both low- and mid-level updraft rotation. ..Goss.. 02/04/2025 Read more

SPC 0700Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0108 AM CST Tue Feb 04 2025 Valid 051200Z - 061200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE MISSISSIPPI DELTA REGION NORTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE TENNESSEE VALLEY AREA... ...SUMMARY... A couple of strong to potentially severe storms may occur across portions of the Mid South Wednesday. ...Synopsis... Within a background low-amplitude upper flow field, an embedded short-wave trough is forecast to shift across the Plains and into/across the Midwest/Ohio Valley region with time. As this occurs, a weak surface frontal wave along the lingering west-to-east baroclinic zone is expected to shift from the Oklahoma area during the afternoon, across the Mid Mississippi and later the Ohio Valley region. Showers and thunderstorms are expected across the Mid South region and vicinity, in response, particularly during the latter half of the period. ...Tennessee/Kentucky and vicinity... Convection is forecast to gradually increase into the afternoon and evening hours across the Mid and Lower Mississippi/Tennessee Valleys, and eventually Ohio Valley, with a broad zone of warm advection/quasigeostrophic forcing for ascent ahead of the advancing mid-level wave. While weak lapse rates and only partially modified low-level air will exist across the warm sector, shear will be favorable across the region for updraft organization. The lack of more substantial CAPE is expected to largely temper severe-weather potential, but a few stronger storms are expected, mainly from mid afternoon mid evening. Any vigorous/sustained updraft which can evolve, will be capable of producing gusty winds -- perhaps reaching severe levels locally. A brief tornado or two could also occur, given shear sufficient for both low- and mid-level updraft rotation. ..Goss.. 02/04/2025 Read more

SPC 0700Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0108 AM CST Tue Feb 04 2025 Valid 051200Z - 061200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE MISSISSIPPI DELTA REGION NORTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE TENNESSEE VALLEY AREA... ...SUMMARY... A couple of strong to potentially severe storms may occur across portions of the Mid South Wednesday. ...Synopsis... Within a background low-amplitude upper flow field, an embedded short-wave trough is forecast to shift across the Plains and into/across the Midwest/Ohio Valley region with time. As this occurs, a weak surface frontal wave along the lingering west-to-east baroclinic zone is expected to shift from the Oklahoma area during the afternoon, across the Mid Mississippi and later the Ohio Valley region. Showers and thunderstorms are expected across the Mid South region and vicinity, in response, particularly during the latter half of the period. ...Tennessee/Kentucky and vicinity... Convection is forecast to gradually increase into the afternoon and evening hours across the Mid and Lower Mississippi/Tennessee Valleys, and eventually Ohio Valley, with a broad zone of warm advection/quasigeostrophic forcing for ascent ahead of the advancing mid-level wave. While weak lapse rates and only partially modified low-level air will exist across the warm sector, shear will be favorable across the region for updraft organization. The lack of more substantial CAPE is expected to largely temper severe-weather potential, but a few stronger storms are expected, mainly from mid afternoon mid evening. Any vigorous/sustained updraft which can evolve, will be capable of producing gusty winds -- perhaps reaching severe levels locally. A brief tornado or two could also occur, given shear sufficient for both low- and mid-level updraft rotation. ..Goss.. 02/04/2025 Read more

SPC 0700Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0108 AM CST Tue Feb 04 2025 Valid 051200Z - 061200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE MISSISSIPPI DELTA REGION NORTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE TENNESSEE VALLEY AREA... ...SUMMARY... A couple of strong to potentially severe storms may occur across portions of the Mid South Wednesday. ...Synopsis... Within a background low-amplitude upper flow field, an embedded short-wave trough is forecast to shift across the Plains and into/across the Midwest/Ohio Valley region with time. As this occurs, a weak surface frontal wave along the lingering west-to-east baroclinic zone is expected to shift from the Oklahoma area during the afternoon, across the Mid Mississippi and later the Ohio Valley region. Showers and thunderstorms are expected across the Mid South region and vicinity, in response, particularly during the latter half of the period. ...Tennessee/Kentucky and vicinity... Convection is forecast to gradually increase into the afternoon and evening hours across the Mid and Lower Mississippi/Tennessee Valleys, and eventually Ohio Valley, with a broad zone of warm advection/quasigeostrophic forcing for ascent ahead of the advancing mid-level wave. While weak lapse rates and only partially modified low-level air will exist across the warm sector, shear will be favorable across the region for updraft organization. The lack of more substantial CAPE is expected to largely temper severe-weather potential, but a few stronger storms are expected, mainly from mid afternoon mid evening. Any vigorous/sustained updraft which can evolve, will be capable of producing gusty winds -- perhaps reaching severe levels locally. A brief tornado or two could also occur, given shear sufficient for both low- and mid-level updraft rotation. ..Goss.. 02/04/2025 Read more

SPC 0700Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0108 AM CST Tue Feb 04 2025 Valid 051200Z - 061200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE MISSISSIPPI DELTA REGION NORTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE TENNESSEE VALLEY AREA... ...SUMMARY... A couple of strong to potentially severe storms may occur across portions of the Mid South Wednesday. ...Synopsis... Within a background low-amplitude upper flow field, an embedded short-wave trough is forecast to shift across the Plains and into/across the Midwest/Ohio Valley region with time. As this occurs, a weak surface frontal wave along the lingering west-to-east baroclinic zone is expected to shift from the Oklahoma area during the afternoon, across the Mid Mississippi and later the Ohio Valley region. Showers and thunderstorms are expected across the Mid South region and vicinity, in response, particularly during the latter half of the period. ...Tennessee/Kentucky and vicinity... Convection is forecast to gradually increase into the afternoon and evening hours across the Mid and Lower Mississippi/Tennessee Valleys, and eventually Ohio Valley, with a broad zone of warm advection/quasigeostrophic forcing for ascent ahead of the advancing mid-level wave. While weak lapse rates and only partially modified low-level air will exist across the warm sector, shear will be favorable across the region for updraft organization. The lack of more substantial CAPE is expected to largely temper severe-weather potential, but a few stronger storms are expected, mainly from mid afternoon mid evening. Any vigorous/sustained updraft which can evolve, will be capable of producing gusty winds -- perhaps reaching severe levels locally. A brief tornado or two could also occur, given shear sufficient for both low- and mid-level updraft rotation. ..Goss.. 02/04/2025 Read more

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1148 PM CST Mon Feb 03 2025 Valid 041200Z - 051200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Isolated to scattered thunderstorm development will be possible today in parts of the western U.S., but no severe storms are expected. ...DISCUSSION... At mid-levels, a ridge will move eastward across the central U.S. today, as a trough approaches the West Coast. Ahead of the trough, a few thunderstorms may develop in parts of north-central California from San Francisco eastward into the Sierra. Isolated lighting strikes may also occur along the Oregon coast. No severe threat is expected. ..Broyles/Lyons.. 02/04/2025 Read more

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1148 PM CST Mon Feb 03 2025 Valid 041200Z - 051200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Isolated to scattered thunderstorm development will be possible today in parts of the western U.S., but no severe storms are expected. ...DISCUSSION... At mid-levels, a ridge will move eastward across the central U.S. today, as a trough approaches the West Coast. Ahead of the trough, a few thunderstorms may develop in parts of north-central California from San Francisco eastward into the Sierra. Isolated lighting strikes may also occur along the Oregon coast. No severe threat is expected. ..Broyles/Lyons.. 02/04/2025 Read more

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1148 PM CST Mon Feb 03 2025 Valid 041200Z - 051200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Isolated to scattered thunderstorm development will be possible today in parts of the western U.S., but no severe storms are expected. ...DISCUSSION... At mid-levels, a ridge will move eastward across the central U.S. today, as a trough approaches the West Coast. Ahead of the trough, a few thunderstorms may develop in parts of north-central California from San Francisco eastward into the Sierra. Isolated lighting strikes may also occur along the Oregon coast. No severe threat is expected. ..Broyles/Lyons.. 02/04/2025 Read more

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1148 PM CST Mon Feb 03 2025 Valid 041200Z - 051200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Isolated to scattered thunderstorm development will be possible today in parts of the western U.S., but no severe storms are expected. ...DISCUSSION... At mid-levels, a ridge will move eastward across the central U.S. today, as a trough approaches the West Coast. Ahead of the trough, a few thunderstorms may develop in parts of north-central California from San Francisco eastward into the Sierra. Isolated lighting strikes may also occur along the Oregon coast. No severe threat is expected. ..Broyles/Lyons.. 02/04/2025 Read more

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1148 PM CST Mon Feb 03 2025 Valid 041200Z - 051200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Isolated to scattered thunderstorm development will be possible today in parts of the western U.S., but no severe storms are expected. ...DISCUSSION... At mid-levels, a ridge will move eastward across the central U.S. today, as a trough approaches the West Coast. Ahead of the trough, a few thunderstorms may develop in parts of north-central California from San Francisco eastward into the Sierra. Isolated lighting strikes may also occur along the Oregon coast. No severe threat is expected. ..Broyles/Lyons.. 02/04/2025 Read more

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1148 PM CST Mon Feb 03 2025 Valid 041200Z - 051200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Isolated to scattered thunderstorm development will be possible today in parts of the western U.S., but no severe storms are expected. ...DISCUSSION... At mid-levels, a ridge will move eastward across the central U.S. today, as a trough approaches the West Coast. Ahead of the trough, a few thunderstorms may develop in parts of north-central California from San Francisco eastward into the Sierra. Isolated lighting strikes may also occur along the Oregon coast. No severe threat is expected. ..Broyles/Lyons.. 02/04/2025 Read more

SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0655 PM CST Mon Feb 03 2025 Valid 040100Z - 041200Z ...NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorms are not forecast across the contiguous United States through tonight. ...DISCUSSION... West to west-northwest mid-level flow is in place across most of the U.S. At the surface, high pressure is dominating across much of the Southeast and Eastern Seaboard, with a cold front moving southward through the central states. This front will usher another high pressure system southward into the north-central U.S. As this front moves south, the dry air over much of the continental U.S. will be reinforced. The relatively dry air will make conditions unfavorable for thunderstorms through tonight. ..Broyles.. 02/04/2025 Read more

SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0655 PM CST Mon Feb 03 2025 Valid 040100Z - 041200Z ...NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorms are not forecast across the contiguous United States through tonight. ...DISCUSSION... West to west-northwest mid-level flow is in place across most of the U.S. At the surface, high pressure is dominating across much of the Southeast and Eastern Seaboard, with a cold front moving southward through the central states. This front will usher another high pressure system southward into the north-central U.S. As this front moves south, the dry air over much of the continental U.S. will be reinforced. The relatively dry air will make conditions unfavorable for thunderstorms through tonight. ..Broyles.. 02/04/2025 Read more

SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0655 PM CST Mon Feb 03 2025 Valid 040100Z - 041200Z ...NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorms are not forecast across the contiguous United States through tonight. ...DISCUSSION... West to west-northwest mid-level flow is in place across most of the U.S. At the surface, high pressure is dominating across much of the Southeast and Eastern Seaboard, with a cold front moving southward through the central states. This front will usher another high pressure system southward into the north-central U.S. As this front moves south, the dry air over much of the continental U.S. will be reinforced. The relatively dry air will make conditions unfavorable for thunderstorms through tonight. ..Broyles.. 02/04/2025 Read more

MD 0063 CONCERNING HEAVY SNOW FOR SOUTHWEST OR INTO EXTREME NORTHERN CA
Mesoscale Discussion 0063 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0401 PM CST Mon Feb 03 2025 Areas affected...Southwest OR into extreme northern CA Concerning...Heavy snow Valid 032201Z - 040100Z SUMMARY...Locally heavy snow rates will continue through the afternoon. DISCUSSION...Moderate to locally heavy precipitation is ongoing this afternoon from northern CA into southwest OR, in association with a midlevel shortwave trough and an extensive plume of moisture emanating from the eastern Pacific. Colder temperatures to the north of a stationary front across northern CA are supporting heavier snow rates across parts of southwest OR, including recent observations of heavy snow at KMFR. Moderate to locally heavy wet snow may persist at lower elevations through the afternoon, given the presence of heavier precipitation rates and a lack of near-surface warm advection, while heavy snow rates will continue across favored upslope regions at higher elevation. ..Dean.. 02/03/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...MFR...EKA... LAT...LON 41952355 42552328 43022271 43252216 43342156 43202124 42962123 42372165 41972214 41882268 41792300 41812330 41952355 Read more

No watches are valid as of Mon Feb 3 23:00:02 UTC 2025.

MD 0063 CONCERNING HEAVY SNOW FOR SOUTHWEST OR INTO EXTREME NORTHERN CA
Mesoscale Discussion 0063 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0401 PM CST Mon Feb 03 2025 Areas affected...Southwest OR into extreme northern CA Concerning...Heavy snow Valid 032201Z - 040100Z SUMMARY...Locally heavy snow rates will continue through the afternoon. DISCUSSION...Moderate to locally heavy precipitation is ongoing this afternoon from northern CA into southwest OR, in association with a midlevel shortwave trough and an extensive plume of moisture emanating from the eastern Pacific. Colder temperatures to the north of a stationary front across northern CA are supporting heavier snow rates across parts of southwest OR, including recent observations of heavy snow at KMFR. Moderate to locally heavy wet snow may persist at lower elevations through the afternoon, given the presence of heavier precipitation rates and a lack of near-surface warm advection, while heavy snow rates will continue across favored upslope regions at higher elevation. ..Dean.. 02/03/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...MFR...EKA... LAT...LON 41952355 42552328 43022271 43252216 43342156 43202124 42962123 42372165 41972214 41882268 41792300 41812330 41952355 Read more