Severe Storms

SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0639 AM CST Tue Feb 04 2025 Valid 041300Z - 051200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Isolated to scattered thunderstorm development will be possible across central California and along the Oregon Coast, but no severe thunderstorms are expected. ...Synopsis and Discussion... A mid/upper cyclone is currently centered off the Pacific Northwest/British Columbia coast, with moderate southwesterly flow aloft extending from the base of this low across much of the West Coast. A low-amplitude shortwave trough is currently moving through this southwesterly flow into central CA, with continued northeastward progression across the Great Basin expected today. Another shortwave trough is expected to follow quickly behind the first, moving into central CA tonight. Cooler mid-level temperatures will accompany this second shortwave, supporting the potential for a few lightning flashes as the frontal band moves ashore. Cooler temperatures aloft and increased forcing for ascent ahead of a third shortwave trough could also support isolated lightning flashes early tomorrow morning along the OR Coast. Farther east, upper ridging is expected to amplify as it shifts eastward across the Plains. At the same time, a fast-moving, low-amplitude shortwave trough will progress through southern Ontario and the Northeast. Additional southward progress of the cold front that currently extends from the Mid-Atlantic, TN Valley, Mid-South, and TX will be limited, with the portion of this front over TX potentially returning northward as a warm front Wednesday morning. Warm mid-level temperatures and associated poor lapse rates will limit buoyancy along this boundary, precluding any thunderstorm potential. ..Mosier/Bentley.. 02/04/2025 Read more

SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0639 AM CST Tue Feb 04 2025 Valid 041300Z - 051200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Isolated to scattered thunderstorm development will be possible across central California and along the Oregon Coast, but no severe thunderstorms are expected. ...Synopsis and Discussion... A mid/upper cyclone is currently centered off the Pacific Northwest/British Columbia coast, with moderate southwesterly flow aloft extending from the base of this low across much of the West Coast. A low-amplitude shortwave trough is currently moving through this southwesterly flow into central CA, with continued northeastward progression across the Great Basin expected today. Another shortwave trough is expected to follow quickly behind the first, moving into central CA tonight. Cooler mid-level temperatures will accompany this second shortwave, supporting the potential for a few lightning flashes as the frontal band moves ashore. Cooler temperatures aloft and increased forcing for ascent ahead of a third shortwave trough could also support isolated lightning flashes early tomorrow morning along the OR Coast. Farther east, upper ridging is expected to amplify as it shifts eastward across the Plains. At the same time, a fast-moving, low-amplitude shortwave trough will progress through southern Ontario and the Northeast. Additional southward progress of the cold front that currently extends from the Mid-Atlantic, TN Valley, Mid-South, and TX will be limited, with the portion of this front over TX potentially returning northward as a warm front Wednesday morning. Warm mid-level temperatures and associated poor lapse rates will limit buoyancy along this boundary, precluding any thunderstorm potential. ..Mosier/Bentley.. 02/04/2025 Read more

SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0639 AM CST Tue Feb 04 2025 Valid 041300Z - 051200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Isolated to scattered thunderstorm development will be possible across central California and along the Oregon Coast, but no severe thunderstorms are expected. ...Synopsis and Discussion... A mid/upper cyclone is currently centered off the Pacific Northwest/British Columbia coast, with moderate southwesterly flow aloft extending from the base of this low across much of the West Coast. A low-amplitude shortwave trough is currently moving through this southwesterly flow into central CA, with continued northeastward progression across the Great Basin expected today. Another shortwave trough is expected to follow quickly behind the first, moving into central CA tonight. Cooler mid-level temperatures will accompany this second shortwave, supporting the potential for a few lightning flashes as the frontal band moves ashore. Cooler temperatures aloft and increased forcing for ascent ahead of a third shortwave trough could also support isolated lightning flashes early tomorrow morning along the OR Coast. Farther east, upper ridging is expected to amplify as it shifts eastward across the Plains. At the same time, a fast-moving, low-amplitude shortwave trough will progress through southern Ontario and the Northeast. Additional southward progress of the cold front that currently extends from the Mid-Atlantic, TN Valley, Mid-South, and TX will be limited, with the portion of this front over TX potentially returning northward as a warm front Wednesday morning. Warm mid-level temperatures and associated poor lapse rates will limit buoyancy along this boundary, precluding any thunderstorm potential. ..Mosier/Bentley.. 02/04/2025 Read more

SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0639 AM CST Tue Feb 04 2025 Valid 041300Z - 051200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Isolated to scattered thunderstorm development will be possible across central California and along the Oregon Coast, but no severe thunderstorms are expected. ...Synopsis and Discussion... A mid/upper cyclone is currently centered off the Pacific Northwest/British Columbia coast, with moderate southwesterly flow aloft extending from the base of this low across much of the West Coast. A low-amplitude shortwave trough is currently moving through this southwesterly flow into central CA, with continued northeastward progression across the Great Basin expected today. Another shortwave trough is expected to follow quickly behind the first, moving into central CA tonight. Cooler mid-level temperatures will accompany this second shortwave, supporting the potential for a few lightning flashes as the frontal band moves ashore. Cooler temperatures aloft and increased forcing for ascent ahead of a third shortwave trough could also support isolated lightning flashes early tomorrow morning along the OR Coast. Farther east, upper ridging is expected to amplify as it shifts eastward across the Plains. At the same time, a fast-moving, low-amplitude shortwave trough will progress through southern Ontario and the Northeast. Additional southward progress of the cold front that currently extends from the Mid-Atlantic, TN Valley, Mid-South, and TX will be limited, with the portion of this front over TX potentially returning northward as a warm front Wednesday morning. Warm mid-level temperatures and associated poor lapse rates will limit buoyancy along this boundary, precluding any thunderstorm potential. ..Mosier/Bentley.. 02/04/2025 Read more

SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0639 AM CST Tue Feb 04 2025 Valid 041300Z - 051200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Isolated to scattered thunderstorm development will be possible across central California and along the Oregon Coast, but no severe thunderstorms are expected. ...Synopsis and Discussion... A mid/upper cyclone is currently centered off the Pacific Northwest/British Columbia coast, with moderate southwesterly flow aloft extending from the base of this low across much of the West Coast. A low-amplitude shortwave trough is currently moving through this southwesterly flow into central CA, with continued northeastward progression across the Great Basin expected today. Another shortwave trough is expected to follow quickly behind the first, moving into central CA tonight. Cooler mid-level temperatures will accompany this second shortwave, supporting the potential for a few lightning flashes as the frontal band moves ashore. Cooler temperatures aloft and increased forcing for ascent ahead of a third shortwave trough could also support isolated lightning flashes early tomorrow morning along the OR Coast. Farther east, upper ridging is expected to amplify as it shifts eastward across the Plains. At the same time, a fast-moving, low-amplitude shortwave trough will progress through southern Ontario and the Northeast. Additional southward progress of the cold front that currently extends from the Mid-Atlantic, TN Valley, Mid-South, and TX will be limited, with the portion of this front over TX potentially returning northward as a warm front Wednesday morning. Warm mid-level temperatures and associated poor lapse rates will limit buoyancy along this boundary, precluding any thunderstorm potential. ..Mosier/Bentley.. 02/04/2025 Read more

Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0359 AM CST Tue Feb 04 2025 Valid 071200Z - 121200Z ...DISCUSSION... Medium-range models are in reasonably good agreement through day 6 (Sunday), in terms of large-scale features. Substantial divergence begins thereafter, casting substantial uncertainty into the forecast beyond the upcoming weekend. Day 4, as an upper short-wave trough crossing the Northeast moves into/across the Canadian Maritimes, the quasi-zonal flow pattern over the U.S. will continue. Weak amplification of the flow will occur over the West with time, however, as a short-wave trough moves across the Rockies. As this occurs, frontal low development is expected along the persistent west-to-east front lying from the southern Plains to the Mid-Atlantic region. However, with only weak instability expected near the developing low, and eastward along the front, convection is forecast to remain disorganized. Day 5, the upper wave is forecast to continue eastward across the central and northern Plains through the day, and into and across the Great Lakes region overnight. The associated frontal low -- initially progged to lie over the Oklahoma vicinity, will deepen as it shifts east-northeastward with time, reaching the northeast through the end of the period. The trailing surface front will sharpen and advance southeastward, extending from the Mid-Atlantic region southwestward to coastal Texas late. While showers and a few thunderstorms will be associated with the frontal advance, weak instability anticipated at this time should again hinder convective intensity. Day 6, as the low moves offshore and the front continues advancing steadily southeastward, it should clear the Atlantic and Gulf Coasts during the evening, lingering only across Florida through the end of the period. The continued trend of weak instability, as well as weakening flow with southward extent, should hinder prospects for more robust convection. Read more

Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0359 AM CST Tue Feb 04 2025 Valid 071200Z - 121200Z ...DISCUSSION... Medium-range models are in reasonably good agreement through day 6 (Sunday), in terms of large-scale features. Substantial divergence begins thereafter, casting substantial uncertainty into the forecast beyond the upcoming weekend. Day 4, as an upper short-wave trough crossing the Northeast moves into/across the Canadian Maritimes, the quasi-zonal flow pattern over the U.S. will continue. Weak amplification of the flow will occur over the West with time, however, as a short-wave trough moves across the Rockies. As this occurs, frontal low development is expected along the persistent west-to-east front lying from the southern Plains to the Mid-Atlantic region. However, with only weak instability expected near the developing low, and eastward along the front, convection is forecast to remain disorganized. Day 5, the upper wave is forecast to continue eastward across the central and northern Plains through the day, and into and across the Great Lakes region overnight. The associated frontal low -- initially progged to lie over the Oklahoma vicinity, will deepen as it shifts east-northeastward with time, reaching the northeast through the end of the period. The trailing surface front will sharpen and advance southeastward, extending from the Mid-Atlantic region southwestward to coastal Texas late. While showers and a few thunderstorms will be associated with the frontal advance, weak instability anticipated at this time should again hinder convective intensity. Day 6, as the low moves offshore and the front continues advancing steadily southeastward, it should clear the Atlantic and Gulf Coasts during the evening, lingering only across Florida through the end of the period. The continued trend of weak instability, as well as weakening flow with southward extent, should hinder prospects for more robust convection. Read more

Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0359 AM CST Tue Feb 04 2025 Valid 071200Z - 121200Z ...DISCUSSION... Medium-range models are in reasonably good agreement through day 6 (Sunday), in terms of large-scale features. Substantial divergence begins thereafter, casting substantial uncertainty into the forecast beyond the upcoming weekend. Day 4, as an upper short-wave trough crossing the Northeast moves into/across the Canadian Maritimes, the quasi-zonal flow pattern over the U.S. will continue. Weak amplification of the flow will occur over the West with time, however, as a short-wave trough moves across the Rockies. As this occurs, frontal low development is expected along the persistent west-to-east front lying from the southern Plains to the Mid-Atlantic region. However, with only weak instability expected near the developing low, and eastward along the front, convection is forecast to remain disorganized. Day 5, the upper wave is forecast to continue eastward across the central and northern Plains through the day, and into and across the Great Lakes region overnight. The associated frontal low -- initially progged to lie over the Oklahoma vicinity, will deepen as it shifts east-northeastward with time, reaching the northeast through the end of the period. The trailing surface front will sharpen and advance southeastward, extending from the Mid-Atlantic region southwestward to coastal Texas late. While showers and a few thunderstorms will be associated with the frontal advance, weak instability anticipated at this time should again hinder convective intensity. Day 6, as the low moves offshore and the front continues advancing steadily southeastward, it should clear the Atlantic and Gulf Coasts during the evening, lingering only across Florida through the end of the period. The continued trend of weak instability, as well as weakening flow with southward extent, should hinder prospects for more robust convection. Read more

Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0359 AM CST Tue Feb 04 2025 Valid 071200Z - 121200Z ...DISCUSSION... Medium-range models are in reasonably good agreement through day 6 (Sunday), in terms of large-scale features. Substantial divergence begins thereafter, casting substantial uncertainty into the forecast beyond the upcoming weekend. Day 4, as an upper short-wave trough crossing the Northeast moves into/across the Canadian Maritimes, the quasi-zonal flow pattern over the U.S. will continue. Weak amplification of the flow will occur over the West with time, however, as a short-wave trough moves across the Rockies. As this occurs, frontal low development is expected along the persistent west-to-east front lying from the southern Plains to the Mid-Atlantic region. However, with only weak instability expected near the developing low, and eastward along the front, convection is forecast to remain disorganized. Day 5, the upper wave is forecast to continue eastward across the central and northern Plains through the day, and into and across the Great Lakes region overnight. The associated frontal low -- initially progged to lie over the Oklahoma vicinity, will deepen as it shifts east-northeastward with time, reaching the northeast through the end of the period. The trailing surface front will sharpen and advance southeastward, extending from the Mid-Atlantic region southwestward to coastal Texas late. While showers and a few thunderstorms will be associated with the frontal advance, weak instability anticipated at this time should again hinder convective intensity. Day 6, as the low moves offshore and the front continues advancing steadily southeastward, it should clear the Atlantic and Gulf Coasts during the evening, lingering only across Florida through the end of the period. The continued trend of weak instability, as well as weakening flow with southward extent, should hinder prospects for more robust convection. Read more

Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0359 AM CST Tue Feb 04 2025 Valid 071200Z - 121200Z ...DISCUSSION... Medium-range models are in reasonably good agreement through day 6 (Sunday), in terms of large-scale features. Substantial divergence begins thereafter, casting substantial uncertainty into the forecast beyond the upcoming weekend. Day 4, as an upper short-wave trough crossing the Northeast moves into/across the Canadian Maritimes, the quasi-zonal flow pattern over the U.S. will continue. Weak amplification of the flow will occur over the West with time, however, as a short-wave trough moves across the Rockies. As this occurs, frontal low development is expected along the persistent west-to-east front lying from the southern Plains to the Mid-Atlantic region. However, with only weak instability expected near the developing low, and eastward along the front, convection is forecast to remain disorganized. Day 5, the upper wave is forecast to continue eastward across the central and northern Plains through the day, and into and across the Great Lakes region overnight. The associated frontal low -- initially progged to lie over the Oklahoma vicinity, will deepen as it shifts east-northeastward with time, reaching the northeast through the end of the period. The trailing surface front will sharpen and advance southeastward, extending from the Mid-Atlantic region southwestward to coastal Texas late. While showers and a few thunderstorms will be associated with the frontal advance, weak instability anticipated at this time should again hinder convective intensity. Day 6, as the low moves offshore and the front continues advancing steadily southeastward, it should clear the Atlantic and Gulf Coasts during the evening, lingering only across Florida through the end of the period. The continued trend of weak instability, as well as weakening flow with southward extent, should hinder prospects for more robust convection. Read more

Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0359 AM CST Tue Feb 04 2025 Valid 071200Z - 121200Z ...DISCUSSION... Medium-range models are in reasonably good agreement through day 6 (Sunday), in terms of large-scale features. Substantial divergence begins thereafter, casting substantial uncertainty into the forecast beyond the upcoming weekend. Day 4, as an upper short-wave trough crossing the Northeast moves into/across the Canadian Maritimes, the quasi-zonal flow pattern over the U.S. will continue. Weak amplification of the flow will occur over the West with time, however, as a short-wave trough moves across the Rockies. As this occurs, frontal low development is expected along the persistent west-to-east front lying from the southern Plains to the Mid-Atlantic region. However, with only weak instability expected near the developing low, and eastward along the front, convection is forecast to remain disorganized. Day 5, the upper wave is forecast to continue eastward across the central and northern Plains through the day, and into and across the Great Lakes region overnight. The associated frontal low -- initially progged to lie over the Oklahoma vicinity, will deepen as it shifts east-northeastward with time, reaching the northeast through the end of the period. The trailing surface front will sharpen and advance southeastward, extending from the Mid-Atlantic region southwestward to coastal Texas late. While showers and a few thunderstorms will be associated with the frontal advance, weak instability anticipated at this time should again hinder convective intensity. Day 6, as the low moves offshore and the front continues advancing steadily southeastward, it should clear the Atlantic and Gulf Coasts during the evening, lingering only across Florida through the end of the period. The continued trend of weak instability, as well as weakening flow with southward extent, should hinder prospects for more robust convection. Read more

SPC 0830Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0233 AM CST Tue Feb 04 2025 Valid 061200Z - 071200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe weather is not expected across the U.S. on Thursday. ...Discussion... Largely zonal/westerly flow will continue across much of the U.S. once again Thursday, on the large scale. An embedded short-wave trough moving into/across the central Appalachians vicinity will continue moving quickly east-northeastward, moving across New England and into the Canadian Maritimes overnight. As this occurs, the surface frontal wave moving along the entrenched east-to-west baroclinic zone will move off the Mid-Atlantic Coast, deepening through the end of the period. Meanwhile, the trailing surface front will remain aligned roughly east-to-west, from the Mid-Atlantic region to the southern Plains. Showers and a few thunderstorms will likely be ongoing at the start of the period across the Mid-Atlantic region, but will move offshore through the day. Farther west, the next short-wave feature aloft, embedded in the westerlies, will move across the Desert Southwest/Four Corners states. Scattered showers will accompany the progression of this feature, while isolated showers and a few thunderstorms will also occur farther east, across the Tennessee Valley later in the period, in the broad zone of weak warm advection persisting across this region. In all areas, convection should remain weak/disorganized. ..Goss.. 02/04/2025 Read more

SPC 0830Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0233 AM CST Tue Feb 04 2025 Valid 061200Z - 071200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe weather is not expected across the U.S. on Thursday. ...Discussion... Largely zonal/westerly flow will continue across much of the U.S. once again Thursday, on the large scale. An embedded short-wave trough moving into/across the central Appalachians vicinity will continue moving quickly east-northeastward, moving across New England and into the Canadian Maritimes overnight. As this occurs, the surface frontal wave moving along the entrenched east-to-west baroclinic zone will move off the Mid-Atlantic Coast, deepening through the end of the period. Meanwhile, the trailing surface front will remain aligned roughly east-to-west, from the Mid-Atlantic region to the southern Plains. Showers and a few thunderstorms will likely be ongoing at the start of the period across the Mid-Atlantic region, but will move offshore through the day. Farther west, the next short-wave feature aloft, embedded in the westerlies, will move across the Desert Southwest/Four Corners states. Scattered showers will accompany the progression of this feature, while isolated showers and a few thunderstorms will also occur farther east, across the Tennessee Valley later in the period, in the broad zone of weak warm advection persisting across this region. In all areas, convection should remain weak/disorganized. ..Goss.. 02/04/2025 Read more

SPC 0830Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0233 AM CST Tue Feb 04 2025 Valid 061200Z - 071200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe weather is not expected across the U.S. on Thursday. ...Discussion... Largely zonal/westerly flow will continue across much of the U.S. once again Thursday, on the large scale. An embedded short-wave trough moving into/across the central Appalachians vicinity will continue moving quickly east-northeastward, moving across New England and into the Canadian Maritimes overnight. As this occurs, the surface frontal wave moving along the entrenched east-to-west baroclinic zone will move off the Mid-Atlantic Coast, deepening through the end of the period. Meanwhile, the trailing surface front will remain aligned roughly east-to-west, from the Mid-Atlantic region to the southern Plains. Showers and a few thunderstorms will likely be ongoing at the start of the period across the Mid-Atlantic region, but will move offshore through the day. Farther west, the next short-wave feature aloft, embedded in the westerlies, will move across the Desert Southwest/Four Corners states. Scattered showers will accompany the progression of this feature, while isolated showers and a few thunderstorms will also occur farther east, across the Tennessee Valley later in the period, in the broad zone of weak warm advection persisting across this region. In all areas, convection should remain weak/disorganized. ..Goss.. 02/04/2025 Read more

SPC 0830Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0233 AM CST Tue Feb 04 2025 Valid 061200Z - 071200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe weather is not expected across the U.S. on Thursday. ...Discussion... Largely zonal/westerly flow will continue across much of the U.S. once again Thursday, on the large scale. An embedded short-wave trough moving into/across the central Appalachians vicinity will continue moving quickly east-northeastward, moving across New England and into the Canadian Maritimes overnight. As this occurs, the surface frontal wave moving along the entrenched east-to-west baroclinic zone will move off the Mid-Atlantic Coast, deepening through the end of the period. Meanwhile, the trailing surface front will remain aligned roughly east-to-west, from the Mid-Atlantic region to the southern Plains. Showers and a few thunderstorms will likely be ongoing at the start of the period across the Mid-Atlantic region, but will move offshore through the day. Farther west, the next short-wave feature aloft, embedded in the westerlies, will move across the Desert Southwest/Four Corners states. Scattered showers will accompany the progression of this feature, while isolated showers and a few thunderstorms will also occur farther east, across the Tennessee Valley later in the period, in the broad zone of weak warm advection persisting across this region. In all areas, convection should remain weak/disorganized. ..Goss.. 02/04/2025 Read more

SPC 0830Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0233 AM CST Tue Feb 04 2025 Valid 061200Z - 071200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe weather is not expected across the U.S. on Thursday. ...Discussion... Largely zonal/westerly flow will continue across much of the U.S. once again Thursday, on the large scale. An embedded short-wave trough moving into/across the central Appalachians vicinity will continue moving quickly east-northeastward, moving across New England and into the Canadian Maritimes overnight. As this occurs, the surface frontal wave moving along the entrenched east-to-west baroclinic zone will move off the Mid-Atlantic Coast, deepening through the end of the period. Meanwhile, the trailing surface front will remain aligned roughly east-to-west, from the Mid-Atlantic region to the southern Plains. Showers and a few thunderstorms will likely be ongoing at the start of the period across the Mid-Atlantic region, but will move offshore through the day. Farther west, the next short-wave feature aloft, embedded in the westerlies, will move across the Desert Southwest/Four Corners states. Scattered showers will accompany the progression of this feature, while isolated showers and a few thunderstorms will also occur farther east, across the Tennessee Valley later in the period, in the broad zone of weak warm advection persisting across this region. In all areas, convection should remain weak/disorganized. ..Goss.. 02/04/2025 Read more

SPC 0830Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0233 AM CST Tue Feb 04 2025 Valid 061200Z - 071200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe weather is not expected across the U.S. on Thursday. ...Discussion... Largely zonal/westerly flow will continue across much of the U.S. once again Thursday, on the large scale. An embedded short-wave trough moving into/across the central Appalachians vicinity will continue moving quickly east-northeastward, moving across New England and into the Canadian Maritimes overnight. As this occurs, the surface frontal wave moving along the entrenched east-to-west baroclinic zone will move off the Mid-Atlantic Coast, deepening through the end of the period. Meanwhile, the trailing surface front will remain aligned roughly east-to-west, from the Mid-Atlantic region to the southern Plains. Showers and a few thunderstorms will likely be ongoing at the start of the period across the Mid-Atlantic region, but will move offshore through the day. Farther west, the next short-wave feature aloft, embedded in the westerlies, will move across the Desert Southwest/Four Corners states. Scattered showers will accompany the progression of this feature, while isolated showers and a few thunderstorms will also occur farther east, across the Tennessee Valley later in the period, in the broad zone of weak warm advection persisting across this region. In all areas, convection should remain weak/disorganized. ..Goss.. 02/04/2025 Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0201 AM CST Tue Feb 04 2025 Valid 051200Z - 061200Z ...Synopsis... Enhanced mid-level flow over the Western US is forecast to shift eastward as a shortwave trough spills over the Rockies and into the Plains Wednesday. As the upper trough approaches, a lee low should deepen over eastern CO, supporting stronger west/southwesterly winds over much of the High Plains. Continued dry conditions and the increase in winds favors some potential for elevated fire-weather concerns. ...Southern High Plains... As the shortwave trough and stronger mid-level flow cross the central Rockies, a lee low should intensify over eastern CO. Behind the surface low, west/southwesterly downslope flow, aided by fairly strong mid-level flow, is expected across much of the southern High Plains. Gusty surface winds of 15-25 mph and higher gusts are possible across parts of eastern NM and western TX. Dry conditions are also expected, with RH reductions falling to near/below 20% likely from dry continental trajectories and warm temperatures. Elevated fire-weather conditions appear likely for a few hours over parts of eastern NM and West TX where several days of drying have resulted in more receptive fuels. Some localized critical conditions are also possible, mainly over eastern NM, where larger drier and more dense fuels loads could intersect with the stronger gusts and lower RH. ..Lyons.. 02/04/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0201 AM CST Tue Feb 04 2025 Valid 051200Z - 061200Z ...Synopsis... Enhanced mid-level flow over the Western US is forecast to shift eastward as a shortwave trough spills over the Rockies and into the Plains Wednesday. As the upper trough approaches, a lee low should deepen over eastern CO, supporting stronger west/southwesterly winds over much of the High Plains. Continued dry conditions and the increase in winds favors some potential for elevated fire-weather concerns. ...Southern High Plains... As the shortwave trough and stronger mid-level flow cross the central Rockies, a lee low should intensify over eastern CO. Behind the surface low, west/southwesterly downslope flow, aided by fairly strong mid-level flow, is expected across much of the southern High Plains. Gusty surface winds of 15-25 mph and higher gusts are possible across parts of eastern NM and western TX. Dry conditions are also expected, with RH reductions falling to near/below 20% likely from dry continental trajectories and warm temperatures. Elevated fire-weather conditions appear likely for a few hours over parts of eastern NM and West TX where several days of drying have resulted in more receptive fuels. Some localized critical conditions are also possible, mainly over eastern NM, where larger drier and more dense fuels loads could intersect with the stronger gusts and lower RH. ..Lyons.. 02/04/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0201 AM CST Tue Feb 04 2025 Valid 051200Z - 061200Z ...Synopsis... Enhanced mid-level flow over the Western US is forecast to shift eastward as a shortwave trough spills over the Rockies and into the Plains Wednesday. As the upper trough approaches, a lee low should deepen over eastern CO, supporting stronger west/southwesterly winds over much of the High Plains. Continued dry conditions and the increase in winds favors some potential for elevated fire-weather concerns. ...Southern High Plains... As the shortwave trough and stronger mid-level flow cross the central Rockies, a lee low should intensify over eastern CO. Behind the surface low, west/southwesterly downslope flow, aided by fairly strong mid-level flow, is expected across much of the southern High Plains. Gusty surface winds of 15-25 mph and higher gusts are possible across parts of eastern NM and western TX. Dry conditions are also expected, with RH reductions falling to near/below 20% likely from dry continental trajectories and warm temperatures. Elevated fire-weather conditions appear likely for a few hours over parts of eastern NM and West TX where several days of drying have resulted in more receptive fuels. Some localized critical conditions are also possible, mainly over eastern NM, where larger drier and more dense fuels loads could intersect with the stronger gusts and lower RH. ..Lyons.. 02/04/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more