Severe Storms

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0103 PM CST Tue Feb 04 2025 Valid 051200Z - 061200Z Elevated fire weather concerns remain likely across the Southwest and southern High Plains tomorrow. The primary forecast amendment for this update was to introduce an Elevated risk area across east-central AZ into western NM. Recent guidance has trended towards drier/windier conditions along and north of the Mogollon Rim and within the Gila region of southwest NM. Sustained winds within, and in the lee of, the higher terrain should peak between 15-25 mph by late afternoon as stronger mid-level winds mix to the surface. Ample heating/mixing should promote RH reductions into the teens to upper single digits. Increasing winds with falling RH, coupled with antecedent drought conditions, should sufficiently dry finer fuels to support a fire weather concern. Only minor modifications were made to the existing Elevated risk area across the southern High Plains - mainly to account for the potential for strong winds and dry downslope conditions northward across central CO in the lee of the Rockies. Consideration was given for introducing a Critical risk area across east-central/northeast NM where winds should be sustained near 25-30 mph in closer proximity to the deepening surface low. However, spread in guidance regarding the coverage of such winds, and uncertainty regarding fuel status with northward extent, precluded additional highlights for this update. ..Moore.. 02/04/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0201 AM CST Tue Feb 04 2025/ ...Synopsis... Enhanced mid-level flow over the Western US is forecast to shift eastward as a shortwave trough spills over the Rockies and into the Plains Wednesday. As the upper trough approaches, a lee low should deepen over eastern CO, supporting stronger west/southwesterly winds over much of the High Plains. Continued dry conditions and the increase in winds favors some potential for elevated fire-weather concerns. ...Southern High Plains... As the shortwave trough and stronger mid-level flow cross the central Rockies, a lee low should intensify over eastern CO. Behind the surface low, west/southwesterly downslope flow, aided by fairly strong mid-level flow, is expected across much of the southern High Plains. Gusty surface winds of 15-25 mph and higher gusts are possible across parts of eastern NM and western TX. Dry conditions are also expected, with RH reductions falling to near/below 20% likely from dry continental trajectories and warm temperatures. Elevated fire-weather conditions appear likely for a few hours over parts of eastern NM and West TX where several days of drying have resulted in more receptive fuels. Some localized critical conditions are also possible, mainly over eastern NM, where larger drier and more dense fuels loads could intersect with the stronger gusts and lower RH. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1134 AM CST Tue Feb 04 2025 Valid 051200Z - 061200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER PORTIONS OF KENTUCKY AND TENNESSEE... ...SUMMARY... A conditional risk of a few strong or severe storms exists over parts of Kentucky and Tennessee late Wednesday. ...Synopsis... On Wednesday, an upper trough will be situated over the Pacific Northwest, with an early disturbance lifting into MT with height rises over OR. Otherwise, a westerly flow regime will exist across the rest of the CONUS, with various embedded waves. One such lead wave will move across the central Plains during the day, and will quickly move into the mid MS and lower OH valley during the evening and overnight. At the surface, high pressure will be strongest across the Great Lakes and Northeast, but another lobe of surface ridge will extend into the Southeast. Modest southerly low-level winds will maintain a moistening air mass from TX into the TN Valley, as a warm front lifts across TN and into KY. Overnight, a cold front associated with the midlevel wave will be near the OH River between 06-12Z, likely interacting with the moist plume. ...KY/TN/MS/AL... During the day, a few thunderstorms may develop within the deepening moist plume from northern MS/AL into Middle TN. This will occur with limited surface heating, and primarily in association with weak warm advection and moisture extending up through 700 mb. Midlevel lapse rates will not be very steep, and general thunderstorms appear most likely here. Overnight, as the midlevel wave and cold front approaches from the west, lift will interact with the low 60s F dewpoints and MLCAPE over 500 J/kg, with several thunderstorms possible. The main uncertainty for severe risk is regarding low-level lapse rates, however, shear will be strong with long hodographs and effective SRH possibly exceeding 400 m2/s2. As such, a conditional risk of a supercell or two will exist, including brief tornado risk as well as strong wind gusts. ..Jewell.. 02/04/2025 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1134 AM CST Tue Feb 04 2025 Valid 051200Z - 061200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER PORTIONS OF KENTUCKY AND TENNESSEE... ...SUMMARY... A conditional risk of a few strong or severe storms exists over parts of Kentucky and Tennessee late Wednesday. ...Synopsis... On Wednesday, an upper trough will be situated over the Pacific Northwest, with an early disturbance lifting into MT with height rises over OR. Otherwise, a westerly flow regime will exist across the rest of the CONUS, with various embedded waves. One such lead wave will move across the central Plains during the day, and will quickly move into the mid MS and lower OH valley during the evening and overnight. At the surface, high pressure will be strongest across the Great Lakes and Northeast, but another lobe of surface ridge will extend into the Southeast. Modest southerly low-level winds will maintain a moistening air mass from TX into the TN Valley, as a warm front lifts across TN and into KY. Overnight, a cold front associated with the midlevel wave will be near the OH River between 06-12Z, likely interacting with the moist plume. ...KY/TN/MS/AL... During the day, a few thunderstorms may develop within the deepening moist plume from northern MS/AL into Middle TN. This will occur with limited surface heating, and primarily in association with weak warm advection and moisture extending up through 700 mb. Midlevel lapse rates will not be very steep, and general thunderstorms appear most likely here. Overnight, as the midlevel wave and cold front approaches from the west, lift will interact with the low 60s F dewpoints and MLCAPE over 500 J/kg, with several thunderstorms possible. The main uncertainty for severe risk is regarding low-level lapse rates, however, shear will be strong with long hodographs and effective SRH possibly exceeding 400 m2/s2. As such, a conditional risk of a supercell or two will exist, including brief tornado risk as well as strong wind gusts. ..Jewell.. 02/04/2025 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1134 AM CST Tue Feb 04 2025 Valid 051200Z - 061200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER PORTIONS OF KENTUCKY AND TENNESSEE... ...SUMMARY... A conditional risk of a few strong or severe storms exists over parts of Kentucky and Tennessee late Wednesday. ...Synopsis... On Wednesday, an upper trough will be situated over the Pacific Northwest, with an early disturbance lifting into MT with height rises over OR. Otherwise, a westerly flow regime will exist across the rest of the CONUS, with various embedded waves. One such lead wave will move across the central Plains during the day, and will quickly move into the mid MS and lower OH valley during the evening and overnight. At the surface, high pressure will be strongest across the Great Lakes and Northeast, but another lobe of surface ridge will extend into the Southeast. Modest southerly low-level winds will maintain a moistening air mass from TX into the TN Valley, as a warm front lifts across TN and into KY. Overnight, a cold front associated with the midlevel wave will be near the OH River between 06-12Z, likely interacting with the moist plume. ...KY/TN/MS/AL... During the day, a few thunderstorms may develop within the deepening moist plume from northern MS/AL into Middle TN. This will occur with limited surface heating, and primarily in association with weak warm advection and moisture extending up through 700 mb. Midlevel lapse rates will not be very steep, and general thunderstorms appear most likely here. Overnight, as the midlevel wave and cold front approaches from the west, lift will interact with the low 60s F dewpoints and MLCAPE over 500 J/kg, with several thunderstorms possible. The main uncertainty for severe risk is regarding low-level lapse rates, however, shear will be strong with long hodographs and effective SRH possibly exceeding 400 m2/s2. As such, a conditional risk of a supercell or two will exist, including brief tornado risk as well as strong wind gusts. ..Jewell.. 02/04/2025 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1134 AM CST Tue Feb 04 2025 Valid 051200Z - 061200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER PORTIONS OF KENTUCKY AND TENNESSEE... ...SUMMARY... A conditional risk of a few strong or severe storms exists over parts of Kentucky and Tennessee late Wednesday. ...Synopsis... On Wednesday, an upper trough will be situated over the Pacific Northwest, with an early disturbance lifting into MT with height rises over OR. Otherwise, a westerly flow regime will exist across the rest of the CONUS, with various embedded waves. One such lead wave will move across the central Plains during the day, and will quickly move into the mid MS and lower OH valley during the evening and overnight. At the surface, high pressure will be strongest across the Great Lakes and Northeast, but another lobe of surface ridge will extend into the Southeast. Modest southerly low-level winds will maintain a moistening air mass from TX into the TN Valley, as a warm front lifts across TN and into KY. Overnight, a cold front associated with the midlevel wave will be near the OH River between 06-12Z, likely interacting with the moist plume. ...KY/TN/MS/AL... During the day, a few thunderstorms may develop within the deepening moist plume from northern MS/AL into Middle TN. This will occur with limited surface heating, and primarily in association with weak warm advection and moisture extending up through 700 mb. Midlevel lapse rates will not be very steep, and general thunderstorms appear most likely here. Overnight, as the midlevel wave and cold front approaches from the west, lift will interact with the low 60s F dewpoints and MLCAPE over 500 J/kg, with several thunderstorms possible. The main uncertainty for severe risk is regarding low-level lapse rates, however, shear will be strong with long hodographs and effective SRH possibly exceeding 400 m2/s2. As such, a conditional risk of a supercell or two will exist, including brief tornado risk as well as strong wind gusts. ..Jewell.. 02/04/2025 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1134 AM CST Tue Feb 04 2025 Valid 051200Z - 061200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER PORTIONS OF KENTUCKY AND TENNESSEE... ...SUMMARY... A conditional risk of a few strong or severe storms exists over parts of Kentucky and Tennessee late Wednesday. ...Synopsis... On Wednesday, an upper trough will be situated over the Pacific Northwest, with an early disturbance lifting into MT with height rises over OR. Otherwise, a westerly flow regime will exist across the rest of the CONUS, with various embedded waves. One such lead wave will move across the central Plains during the day, and will quickly move into the mid MS and lower OH valley during the evening and overnight. At the surface, high pressure will be strongest across the Great Lakes and Northeast, but another lobe of surface ridge will extend into the Southeast. Modest southerly low-level winds will maintain a moistening air mass from TX into the TN Valley, as a warm front lifts across TN and into KY. Overnight, a cold front associated with the midlevel wave will be near the OH River between 06-12Z, likely interacting with the moist plume. ...KY/TN/MS/AL... During the day, a few thunderstorms may develop within the deepening moist plume from northern MS/AL into Middle TN. This will occur with limited surface heating, and primarily in association with weak warm advection and moisture extending up through 700 mb. Midlevel lapse rates will not be very steep, and general thunderstorms appear most likely here. Overnight, as the midlevel wave and cold front approaches from the west, lift will interact with the low 60s F dewpoints and MLCAPE over 500 J/kg, with several thunderstorms possible. The main uncertainty for severe risk is regarding low-level lapse rates, however, shear will be strong with long hodographs and effective SRH possibly exceeding 400 m2/s2. As such, a conditional risk of a supercell or two will exist, including brief tornado risk as well as strong wind gusts. ..Jewell.. 02/04/2025 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1134 AM CST Tue Feb 04 2025 Valid 051200Z - 061200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER PORTIONS OF KENTUCKY AND TENNESSEE... ...SUMMARY... A conditional risk of a few strong or severe storms exists over parts of Kentucky and Tennessee late Wednesday. ...Synopsis... On Wednesday, an upper trough will be situated over the Pacific Northwest, with an early disturbance lifting into MT with height rises over OR. Otherwise, a westerly flow regime will exist across the rest of the CONUS, with various embedded waves. One such lead wave will move across the central Plains during the day, and will quickly move into the mid MS and lower OH valley during the evening and overnight. At the surface, high pressure will be strongest across the Great Lakes and Northeast, but another lobe of surface ridge will extend into the Southeast. Modest southerly low-level winds will maintain a moistening air mass from TX into the TN Valley, as a warm front lifts across TN and into KY. Overnight, a cold front associated with the midlevel wave will be near the OH River between 06-12Z, likely interacting with the moist plume. ...KY/TN/MS/AL... During the day, a few thunderstorms may develop within the deepening moist plume from northern MS/AL into Middle TN. This will occur with limited surface heating, and primarily in association with weak warm advection and moisture extending up through 700 mb. Midlevel lapse rates will not be very steep, and general thunderstorms appear most likely here. Overnight, as the midlevel wave and cold front approaches from the west, lift will interact with the low 60s F dewpoints and MLCAPE over 500 J/kg, with several thunderstorms possible. The main uncertainty for severe risk is regarding low-level lapse rates, however, shear will be strong with long hodographs and effective SRH possibly exceeding 400 m2/s2. As such, a conditional risk of a supercell or two will exist, including brief tornado risk as well as strong wind gusts. ..Jewell.. 02/04/2025 Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1021 AM CST Tue Feb 04 2025 Valid 041630Z - 051200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Isolated thunderstorms will be possible across northern/central California this afternoon and evening. ...Northern/Central CA... Morning water vapor imagery shows a shortwave trough approaching the coast of northern CA. An associated surface cold front is also moving southeastward into northern CA, with an increasingly large shield of showers along/ahead of the front. Forecast soundings show the development of very weak CAPE later today, which could result in a few lightning flashes within the embedded precip shield. No severe storms are expected. ..Hart/Leitman.. 02/04/2025 Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1021 AM CST Tue Feb 04 2025 Valid 041630Z - 051200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Isolated thunderstorms will be possible across northern/central California this afternoon and evening. ...Northern/Central CA... Morning water vapor imagery shows a shortwave trough approaching the coast of northern CA. An associated surface cold front is also moving southeastward into northern CA, with an increasingly large shield of showers along/ahead of the front. Forecast soundings show the development of very weak CAPE later today, which could result in a few lightning flashes within the embedded precip shield. No severe storms are expected. ..Hart/Leitman.. 02/04/2025 Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1021 AM CST Tue Feb 04 2025 Valid 041630Z - 051200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Isolated thunderstorms will be possible across northern/central California this afternoon and evening. ...Northern/Central CA... Morning water vapor imagery shows a shortwave trough approaching the coast of northern CA. An associated surface cold front is also moving southeastward into northern CA, with an increasingly large shield of showers along/ahead of the front. Forecast soundings show the development of very weak CAPE later today, which could result in a few lightning flashes within the embedded precip shield. No severe storms are expected. ..Hart/Leitman.. 02/04/2025 Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1021 AM CST Tue Feb 04 2025 Valid 041630Z - 051200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Isolated thunderstorms will be possible across northern/central California this afternoon and evening. ...Northern/Central CA... Morning water vapor imagery shows a shortwave trough approaching the coast of northern CA. An associated surface cold front is also moving southeastward into northern CA, with an increasingly large shield of showers along/ahead of the front. Forecast soundings show the development of very weak CAPE later today, which could result in a few lightning flashes within the embedded precip shield. No severe storms are expected. ..Hart/Leitman.. 02/04/2025 Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1021 AM CST Tue Feb 04 2025 Valid 041630Z - 051200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Isolated thunderstorms will be possible across northern/central California this afternoon and evening. ...Northern/Central CA... Morning water vapor imagery shows a shortwave trough approaching the coast of northern CA. An associated surface cold front is also moving southeastward into northern CA, with an increasingly large shield of showers along/ahead of the front. Forecast soundings show the development of very weak CAPE later today, which could result in a few lightning flashes within the embedded precip shield. No severe storms are expected. ..Hart/Leitman.. 02/04/2025 Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1021 AM CST Tue Feb 04 2025 Valid 041630Z - 051200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Isolated thunderstorms will be possible across northern/central California this afternoon and evening. ...Northern/Central CA... Morning water vapor imagery shows a shortwave trough approaching the coast of northern CA. An associated surface cold front is also moving southeastward into northern CA, with an increasingly large shield of showers along/ahead of the front. Forecast soundings show the development of very weak CAPE later today, which could result in a few lightning flashes within the embedded precip shield. No severe storms are expected. ..Hart/Leitman.. 02/04/2025 Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0957 AM CST Tue Feb 04 2025 Valid 041700Z - 051200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... The previous forecast remains on track with no changes needed. Latest guidance and morning observations continue to suggest that fire weather concerns will remain confined to portions of the Desert Southwest, but the coverage/duration of elevated conditions should remain patchy with limited overlap with receptive fuels. See the previous discussion for additional details. ..Moore.. 02/04/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0159 AM CST Tue Feb 04 2025/ ...Synopsis... Ridging aloft is forecast to intensify over the central US, while a deepening trough moves over much of the West. Several embedded perturbations will cross the southern Rockies deepening a lee low over the southern High Plains and a second low over the Great Basin. This could support gusty winds and periods of locally elevated fire-weather potential over parts of central NM and eastern AZ. ...Southwest... A backdoor cold front will move south over the Plains and into eastern NM early this morning associated with a weak lee low. The influx of cooler air and more moisture should moderate RH over the High Plains. To the west over the High country of central NM, periodic gusty winds and low humidity are still expected to overlap for several hours. Some localized fire-weather risk is possible over central NM and eastern AZ. However, more widespread fire-weather concerns are not currently expected given the relatively minor overlap of sustained winds, low humidity and sporadic receptive fuels. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0957 AM CST Tue Feb 04 2025 Valid 041700Z - 051200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... The previous forecast remains on track with no changes needed. Latest guidance and morning observations continue to suggest that fire weather concerns will remain confined to portions of the Desert Southwest, but the coverage/duration of elevated conditions should remain patchy with limited overlap with receptive fuels. See the previous discussion for additional details. ..Moore.. 02/04/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0159 AM CST Tue Feb 04 2025/ ...Synopsis... Ridging aloft is forecast to intensify over the central US, while a deepening trough moves over much of the West. Several embedded perturbations will cross the southern Rockies deepening a lee low over the southern High Plains and a second low over the Great Basin. This could support gusty winds and periods of locally elevated fire-weather potential over parts of central NM and eastern AZ. ...Southwest... A backdoor cold front will move south over the Plains and into eastern NM early this morning associated with a weak lee low. The influx of cooler air and more moisture should moderate RH over the High Plains. To the west over the High country of central NM, periodic gusty winds and low humidity are still expected to overlap for several hours. Some localized fire-weather risk is possible over central NM and eastern AZ. However, more widespread fire-weather concerns are not currently expected given the relatively minor overlap of sustained winds, low humidity and sporadic receptive fuels. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0957 AM CST Tue Feb 04 2025 Valid 041700Z - 051200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... The previous forecast remains on track with no changes needed. Latest guidance and morning observations continue to suggest that fire weather concerns will remain confined to portions of the Desert Southwest, but the coverage/duration of elevated conditions should remain patchy with limited overlap with receptive fuels. See the previous discussion for additional details. ..Moore.. 02/04/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0159 AM CST Tue Feb 04 2025/ ...Synopsis... Ridging aloft is forecast to intensify over the central US, while a deepening trough moves over much of the West. Several embedded perturbations will cross the southern Rockies deepening a lee low over the southern High Plains and a second low over the Great Basin. This could support gusty winds and periods of locally elevated fire-weather potential over parts of central NM and eastern AZ. ...Southwest... A backdoor cold front will move south over the Plains and into eastern NM early this morning associated with a weak lee low. The influx of cooler air and more moisture should moderate RH over the High Plains. To the west over the High country of central NM, periodic gusty winds and low humidity are still expected to overlap for several hours. Some localized fire-weather risk is possible over central NM and eastern AZ. However, more widespread fire-weather concerns are not currently expected given the relatively minor overlap of sustained winds, low humidity and sporadic receptive fuels. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0957 AM CST Tue Feb 04 2025 Valid 041700Z - 051200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... The previous forecast remains on track with no changes needed. Latest guidance and morning observations continue to suggest that fire weather concerns will remain confined to portions of the Desert Southwest, but the coverage/duration of elevated conditions should remain patchy with limited overlap with receptive fuels. See the previous discussion for additional details. ..Moore.. 02/04/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0159 AM CST Tue Feb 04 2025/ ...Synopsis... Ridging aloft is forecast to intensify over the central US, while a deepening trough moves over much of the West. Several embedded perturbations will cross the southern Rockies deepening a lee low over the southern High Plains and a second low over the Great Basin. This could support gusty winds and periods of locally elevated fire-weather potential over parts of central NM and eastern AZ. ...Southwest... A backdoor cold front will move south over the Plains and into eastern NM early this morning associated with a weak lee low. The influx of cooler air and more moisture should moderate RH over the High Plains. To the west over the High country of central NM, periodic gusty winds and low humidity are still expected to overlap for several hours. Some localized fire-weather risk is possible over central NM and eastern AZ. However, more widespread fire-weather concerns are not currently expected given the relatively minor overlap of sustained winds, low humidity and sporadic receptive fuels. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0957 AM CST Tue Feb 04 2025 Valid 041700Z - 051200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... The previous forecast remains on track with no changes needed. Latest guidance and morning observations continue to suggest that fire weather concerns will remain confined to portions of the Desert Southwest, but the coverage/duration of elevated conditions should remain patchy with limited overlap with receptive fuels. See the previous discussion for additional details. ..Moore.. 02/04/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0159 AM CST Tue Feb 04 2025/ ...Synopsis... Ridging aloft is forecast to intensify over the central US, while a deepening trough moves over much of the West. Several embedded perturbations will cross the southern Rockies deepening a lee low over the southern High Plains and a second low over the Great Basin. This could support gusty winds and periods of locally elevated fire-weather potential over parts of central NM and eastern AZ. ...Southwest... A backdoor cold front will move south over the Plains and into eastern NM early this morning associated with a weak lee low. The influx of cooler air and more moisture should moderate RH over the High Plains. To the west over the High country of central NM, periodic gusty winds and low humidity are still expected to overlap for several hours. Some localized fire-weather risk is possible over central NM and eastern AZ. However, more widespread fire-weather concerns are not currently expected given the relatively minor overlap of sustained winds, low humidity and sporadic receptive fuels. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0957 AM CST Tue Feb 04 2025 Valid 041700Z - 051200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... The previous forecast remains on track with no changes needed. Latest guidance and morning observations continue to suggest that fire weather concerns will remain confined to portions of the Desert Southwest, but the coverage/duration of elevated conditions should remain patchy with limited overlap with receptive fuels. See the previous discussion for additional details. ..Moore.. 02/04/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0159 AM CST Tue Feb 04 2025/ ...Synopsis... Ridging aloft is forecast to intensify over the central US, while a deepening trough moves over much of the West. Several embedded perturbations will cross the southern Rockies deepening a lee low over the southern High Plains and a second low over the Great Basin. This could support gusty winds and periods of locally elevated fire-weather potential over parts of central NM and eastern AZ. ...Southwest... A backdoor cold front will move south over the Plains and into eastern NM early this morning associated with a weak lee low. The influx of cooler air and more moisture should moderate RH over the High Plains. To the west over the High country of central NM, periodic gusty winds and low humidity are still expected to overlap for several hours. Some localized fire-weather risk is possible over central NM and eastern AZ. However, more widespread fire-weather concerns are not currently expected given the relatively minor overlap of sustained winds, low humidity and sporadic receptive fuels. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0639 AM CST Tue Feb 04 2025 Valid 041300Z - 051200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Isolated to scattered thunderstorm development will be possible across central California and along the Oregon Coast, but no severe thunderstorms are expected. ...Synopsis and Discussion... A mid/upper cyclone is currently centered off the Pacific Northwest/British Columbia coast, with moderate southwesterly flow aloft extending from the base of this low across much of the West Coast. A low-amplitude shortwave trough is currently moving through this southwesterly flow into central CA, with continued northeastward progression across the Great Basin expected today. Another shortwave trough is expected to follow quickly behind the first, moving into central CA tonight. Cooler mid-level temperatures will accompany this second shortwave, supporting the potential for a few lightning flashes as the frontal band moves ashore. Cooler temperatures aloft and increased forcing for ascent ahead of a third shortwave trough could also support isolated lightning flashes early tomorrow morning along the OR Coast. Farther east, upper ridging is expected to amplify as it shifts eastward across the Plains. At the same time, a fast-moving, low-amplitude shortwave trough will progress through southern Ontario and the Northeast. Additional southward progress of the cold front that currently extends from the Mid-Atlantic, TN Valley, Mid-South, and TX will be limited, with the portion of this front over TX potentially returning northward as a warm front Wednesday morning. Warm mid-level temperatures and associated poor lapse rates will limit buoyancy along this boundary, precluding any thunderstorm potential. ..Mosier/Bentley.. 02/04/2025 Read more