Severe Storms

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1044 AM CST Mon Mar 03 2025 Valid 031700Z - 041200Z ...EXTREMELY CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR MUCH OF EASTERN NEW MEXICO AND SOUTHWEST TEXAS... ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR MUCH OF THE SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS... ...17z Update... Widespread critical to extremely critical fire-weather conditions are likely across much of the southern High Plains today. Morning observations show clearing skies and poor overnight humidity recoveries across much of eastern NM and southwest TX. Mid-level flow will dramatically increase late this morning through the afternoon as the upper trough and an 80-100 kt mid-level jet moves overhead. The increase in momentum aloft, in combination with the rapidly deepening lee low over eastern CO should allow for surface wind gusts of 45-60 mph over much of the southern High Plains. With afternoon RH minimums of 5-7%, widespread extremely critical conditions are likely within dry fuels. See the prior outlook for more information. The main changes implemented were to trim areas that received enough wetting rainfall to temper concerns somewhat across parts of western OK and the eastern TX Panhandle. The extremely critical was also expanded into western portions of the TX Panhandle where confidence has increased in strong wind gusts and very low RH supporting extreme fire behavior. ..Lyons.. 03/03/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0132 AM CST Mon Mar 03 2025/ ...Synopsis... A pronounced mid-level trough will traverse the southern Rockies, encouraging rapid intensification of a surface low over the central High Plains. During the afternoon, a dryline will advance eastward across the southern High Plains, with very strong winds and low RH overspreading dry fuels in the post-dryline environment, supporting dangerous, rapid wildfire-spread potential. Surface west-southwesterly winds will exceed 20 mph and coincide with 15-20 percent RH on a widespread basis across much of the southern High Plains, with Elevated and Critical highlights maintained. There is persistence among the consensus in model guidance in showing 30-40 mph sustained west-southwesterly surface winds amid 5-10 percent RH across portions of eastern New Mexico and Far West Texas. Given near critically dry fuels, the aforementioned meteorological conditions may support extreme wildfire behavior/spread, warranting the continuance of Extremely Critical highlights. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1044 AM CST Mon Mar 03 2025 Valid 031700Z - 041200Z ...EXTREMELY CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR MUCH OF EASTERN NEW MEXICO AND SOUTHWEST TEXAS... ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR MUCH OF THE SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS... ...17z Update... Widespread critical to extremely critical fire-weather conditions are likely across much of the southern High Plains today. Morning observations show clearing skies and poor overnight humidity recoveries across much of eastern NM and southwest TX. Mid-level flow will dramatically increase late this morning through the afternoon as the upper trough and an 80-100 kt mid-level jet moves overhead. The increase in momentum aloft, in combination with the rapidly deepening lee low over eastern CO should allow for surface wind gusts of 45-60 mph over much of the southern High Plains. With afternoon RH minimums of 5-7%, widespread extremely critical conditions are likely within dry fuels. See the prior outlook for more information. The main changes implemented were to trim areas that received enough wetting rainfall to temper concerns somewhat across parts of western OK and the eastern TX Panhandle. The extremely critical was also expanded into western portions of the TX Panhandle where confidence has increased in strong wind gusts and very low RH supporting extreme fire behavior. ..Lyons.. 03/03/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0132 AM CST Mon Mar 03 2025/ ...Synopsis... A pronounced mid-level trough will traverse the southern Rockies, encouraging rapid intensification of a surface low over the central High Plains. During the afternoon, a dryline will advance eastward across the southern High Plains, with very strong winds and low RH overspreading dry fuels in the post-dryline environment, supporting dangerous, rapid wildfire-spread potential. Surface west-southwesterly winds will exceed 20 mph and coincide with 15-20 percent RH on a widespread basis across much of the southern High Plains, with Elevated and Critical highlights maintained. There is persistence among the consensus in model guidance in showing 30-40 mph sustained west-southwesterly surface winds amid 5-10 percent RH across portions of eastern New Mexico and Far West Texas. Given near critically dry fuels, the aforementioned meteorological conditions may support extreme wildfire behavior/spread, warranting the continuance of Extremely Critical highlights. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1032 AM CST Mon Mar 03 2025 Valid 031630Z - 041200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF NORTH-CENTRAL TEXAS AND WESTERN/CENTRAL OKLAHOMA... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorms should increase late this evening and merge into a squall line overnight across parts of the southern and central Plains. Several tornadoes, scattered to numerous severe wind gusts, and large hail are all possible. ...Southern/Central Plains... A pronounced upper trough with attendant 80-100 kt mid-level jet will eject eastward from the Great Basin and Southwest across the southern/central High Plains through tonight. As large-scale ascent associated with this system overspreads the High Plains, lee cyclogenesis will occur over eastern CO. This surface low should deepen further late tonight into early Tuesday morning as it develops into western KS, and as a Pacific cold front sweeps east-southeastward over the southern High Plains through the end of the period. Low-level moisture (surface dewpoints generally in the upper 50s to low/mid 60s) over south/central TX this morning will continue to stream northward over the southern/central Plains ahead of the cold front and an eastward-mixing dryline. Current expectations are for a cap to inhibit robust, surface-based thunderstorm development until late this evening, likely after 03Z. Once the large-scale ascent preceding the upper trough and the Pacific cold front begin to intersect with the warm sector, intense thunderstorms should quickly develop over parts of western OK into south-central KS. Steep mid-level lapse rates, cold temperatures aloft, increasing low-level moisture, and strong deep-layer shear will all contribute to an environment conducive for supercells, with an associated threat for large hail initially. A fairly quick transition to a more linear/QLCS mode is expected as the cold front moves quickly east-southeastward overnight across KS/OK and north TX. Ample low-level shear will be present owing to a 45-60 kt south-southwesterly low-level jet, and embedded circulations within the line will likely be capable of producing tornadoes, assuming sufficient boundary-layer instability to support surface-based convection. Even with various NAM/RAP forecast soundings showing near-neutral lapse rates in the boundary layer overnight, the strength of the low-level flow should still be more than enough to support at least scattered severe/damaging winds with the line as it sweeps eastward across the southern/central Plains through the end of the period (early Tuesday morning). Recent surface observations show at least low 60s surface dewpoints into parts of western north TX and the Red River vicinity of southwest OK. This appears to be a little ahead of schedule for some guidance, and with about 12 more hours of low-level moisture return likely ahead of the cold front, concern is increasing that around 63-64F surface dewpoints should be in place across parts of western/central OK into north-central TX by the time convective initiation occurs tonight. An Enhanced Risk for tornadoes and severe/damaging winds has been introduced across parts of this region where confidence in surface-based thunderstorms and the best combination of instability and low-level shear is forecast. ..Gleason/Thornton.. 03/03/2025 Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1032 AM CST Mon Mar 03 2025 Valid 031630Z - 041200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF NORTH-CENTRAL TEXAS AND WESTERN/CENTRAL OKLAHOMA... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorms should increase late this evening and merge into a squall line overnight across parts of the southern and central Plains. Several tornadoes, scattered to numerous severe wind gusts, and large hail are all possible. ...Southern/Central Plains... A pronounced upper trough with attendant 80-100 kt mid-level jet will eject eastward from the Great Basin and Southwest across the southern/central High Plains through tonight. As large-scale ascent associated with this system overspreads the High Plains, lee cyclogenesis will occur over eastern CO. This surface low should deepen further late tonight into early Tuesday morning as it develops into western KS, and as a Pacific cold front sweeps east-southeastward over the southern High Plains through the end of the period. Low-level moisture (surface dewpoints generally in the upper 50s to low/mid 60s) over south/central TX this morning will continue to stream northward over the southern/central Plains ahead of the cold front and an eastward-mixing dryline. Current expectations are for a cap to inhibit robust, surface-based thunderstorm development until late this evening, likely after 03Z. Once the large-scale ascent preceding the upper trough and the Pacific cold front begin to intersect with the warm sector, intense thunderstorms should quickly develop over parts of western OK into south-central KS. Steep mid-level lapse rates, cold temperatures aloft, increasing low-level moisture, and strong deep-layer shear will all contribute to an environment conducive for supercells, with an associated threat for large hail initially. A fairly quick transition to a more linear/QLCS mode is expected as the cold front moves quickly east-southeastward overnight across KS/OK and north TX. Ample low-level shear will be present owing to a 45-60 kt south-southwesterly low-level jet, and embedded circulations within the line will likely be capable of producing tornadoes, assuming sufficient boundary-layer instability to support surface-based convection. Even with various NAM/RAP forecast soundings showing near-neutral lapse rates in the boundary layer overnight, the strength of the low-level flow should still be more than enough to support at least scattered severe/damaging winds with the line as it sweeps eastward across the southern/central Plains through the end of the period (early Tuesday morning). Recent surface observations show at least low 60s surface dewpoints into parts of western north TX and the Red River vicinity of southwest OK. This appears to be a little ahead of schedule for some guidance, and with about 12 more hours of low-level moisture return likely ahead of the cold front, concern is increasing that around 63-64F surface dewpoints should be in place across parts of western/central OK into north-central TX by the time convective initiation occurs tonight. An Enhanced Risk for tornadoes and severe/damaging winds has been introduced across parts of this region where confidence in surface-based thunderstorms and the best combination of instability and low-level shear is forecast. ..Gleason/Thornton.. 03/03/2025 Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1032 AM CST Mon Mar 03 2025 Valid 031630Z - 041200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF NORTH-CENTRAL TEXAS AND WESTERN/CENTRAL OKLAHOMA... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorms should increase late this evening and merge into a squall line overnight across parts of the southern and central Plains. Several tornadoes, scattered to numerous severe wind gusts, and large hail are all possible. ...Southern/Central Plains... A pronounced upper trough with attendant 80-100 kt mid-level jet will eject eastward from the Great Basin and Southwest across the southern/central High Plains through tonight. As large-scale ascent associated with this system overspreads the High Plains, lee cyclogenesis will occur over eastern CO. This surface low should deepen further late tonight into early Tuesday morning as it develops into western KS, and as a Pacific cold front sweeps east-southeastward over the southern High Plains through the end of the period. Low-level moisture (surface dewpoints generally in the upper 50s to low/mid 60s) over south/central TX this morning will continue to stream northward over the southern/central Plains ahead of the cold front and an eastward-mixing dryline. Current expectations are for a cap to inhibit robust, surface-based thunderstorm development until late this evening, likely after 03Z. Once the large-scale ascent preceding the upper trough and the Pacific cold front begin to intersect with the warm sector, intense thunderstorms should quickly develop over parts of western OK into south-central KS. Steep mid-level lapse rates, cold temperatures aloft, increasing low-level moisture, and strong deep-layer shear will all contribute to an environment conducive for supercells, with an associated threat for large hail initially. A fairly quick transition to a more linear/QLCS mode is expected as the cold front moves quickly east-southeastward overnight across KS/OK and north TX. Ample low-level shear will be present owing to a 45-60 kt south-southwesterly low-level jet, and embedded circulations within the line will likely be capable of producing tornadoes, assuming sufficient boundary-layer instability to support surface-based convection. Even with various NAM/RAP forecast soundings showing near-neutral lapse rates in the boundary layer overnight, the strength of the low-level flow should still be more than enough to support at least scattered severe/damaging winds with the line as it sweeps eastward across the southern/central Plains through the end of the period (early Tuesday morning). Recent surface observations show at least low 60s surface dewpoints into parts of western north TX and the Red River vicinity of southwest OK. This appears to be a little ahead of schedule for some guidance, and with about 12 more hours of low-level moisture return likely ahead of the cold front, concern is increasing that around 63-64F surface dewpoints should be in place across parts of western/central OK into north-central TX by the time convective initiation occurs tonight. An Enhanced Risk for tornadoes and severe/damaging winds has been introduced across parts of this region where confidence in surface-based thunderstorms and the best combination of instability and low-level shear is forecast. ..Gleason/Thornton.. 03/03/2025 Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1032 AM CST Mon Mar 03 2025 Valid 031630Z - 041200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF NORTH-CENTRAL TEXAS AND WESTERN/CENTRAL OKLAHOMA... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorms should increase late this evening and merge into a squall line overnight across parts of the southern and central Plains. Several tornadoes, scattered to numerous severe wind gusts, and large hail are all possible. ...Southern/Central Plains... A pronounced upper trough with attendant 80-100 kt mid-level jet will eject eastward from the Great Basin and Southwest across the southern/central High Plains through tonight. As large-scale ascent associated with this system overspreads the High Plains, lee cyclogenesis will occur over eastern CO. This surface low should deepen further late tonight into early Tuesday morning as it develops into western KS, and as a Pacific cold front sweeps east-southeastward over the southern High Plains through the end of the period. Low-level moisture (surface dewpoints generally in the upper 50s to low/mid 60s) over south/central TX this morning will continue to stream northward over the southern/central Plains ahead of the cold front and an eastward-mixing dryline. Current expectations are for a cap to inhibit robust, surface-based thunderstorm development until late this evening, likely after 03Z. Once the large-scale ascent preceding the upper trough and the Pacific cold front begin to intersect with the warm sector, intense thunderstorms should quickly develop over parts of western OK into south-central KS. Steep mid-level lapse rates, cold temperatures aloft, increasing low-level moisture, and strong deep-layer shear will all contribute to an environment conducive for supercells, with an associated threat for large hail initially. A fairly quick transition to a more linear/QLCS mode is expected as the cold front moves quickly east-southeastward overnight across KS/OK and north TX. Ample low-level shear will be present owing to a 45-60 kt south-southwesterly low-level jet, and embedded circulations within the line will likely be capable of producing tornadoes, assuming sufficient boundary-layer instability to support surface-based convection. Even with various NAM/RAP forecast soundings showing near-neutral lapse rates in the boundary layer overnight, the strength of the low-level flow should still be more than enough to support at least scattered severe/damaging winds with the line as it sweeps eastward across the southern/central Plains through the end of the period (early Tuesday morning). Recent surface observations show at least low 60s surface dewpoints into parts of western north TX and the Red River vicinity of southwest OK. This appears to be a little ahead of schedule for some guidance, and with about 12 more hours of low-level moisture return likely ahead of the cold front, concern is increasing that around 63-64F surface dewpoints should be in place across parts of western/central OK into north-central TX by the time convective initiation occurs tonight. An Enhanced Risk for tornadoes and severe/damaging winds has been introduced across parts of this region where confidence in surface-based thunderstorms and the best combination of instability and low-level shear is forecast. ..Gleason/Thornton.. 03/03/2025 Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1032 AM CST Mon Mar 03 2025 Valid 031630Z - 041200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF NORTH-CENTRAL TEXAS AND WESTERN/CENTRAL OKLAHOMA... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorms should increase late this evening and merge into a squall line overnight across parts of the southern and central Plains. Several tornadoes, scattered to numerous severe wind gusts, and large hail are all possible. ...Southern/Central Plains... A pronounced upper trough with attendant 80-100 kt mid-level jet will eject eastward from the Great Basin and Southwest across the southern/central High Plains through tonight. As large-scale ascent associated with this system overspreads the High Plains, lee cyclogenesis will occur over eastern CO. This surface low should deepen further late tonight into early Tuesday morning as it develops into western KS, and as a Pacific cold front sweeps east-southeastward over the southern High Plains through the end of the period. Low-level moisture (surface dewpoints generally in the upper 50s to low/mid 60s) over south/central TX this morning will continue to stream northward over the southern/central Plains ahead of the cold front and an eastward-mixing dryline. Current expectations are for a cap to inhibit robust, surface-based thunderstorm development until late this evening, likely after 03Z. Once the large-scale ascent preceding the upper trough and the Pacific cold front begin to intersect with the warm sector, intense thunderstorms should quickly develop over parts of western OK into south-central KS. Steep mid-level lapse rates, cold temperatures aloft, increasing low-level moisture, and strong deep-layer shear will all contribute to an environment conducive for supercells, with an associated threat for large hail initially. A fairly quick transition to a more linear/QLCS mode is expected as the cold front moves quickly east-southeastward overnight across KS/OK and north TX. Ample low-level shear will be present owing to a 45-60 kt south-southwesterly low-level jet, and embedded circulations within the line will likely be capable of producing tornadoes, assuming sufficient boundary-layer instability to support surface-based convection. Even with various NAM/RAP forecast soundings showing near-neutral lapse rates in the boundary layer overnight, the strength of the low-level flow should still be more than enough to support at least scattered severe/damaging winds with the line as it sweeps eastward across the southern/central Plains through the end of the period (early Tuesday morning). Recent surface observations show at least low 60s surface dewpoints into parts of western north TX and the Red River vicinity of southwest OK. This appears to be a little ahead of schedule for some guidance, and with about 12 more hours of low-level moisture return likely ahead of the cold front, concern is increasing that around 63-64F surface dewpoints should be in place across parts of western/central OK into north-central TX by the time convective initiation occurs tonight. An Enhanced Risk for tornadoes and severe/damaging winds has been introduced across parts of this region where confidence in surface-based thunderstorms and the best combination of instability and low-level shear is forecast. ..Gleason/Thornton.. 03/03/2025 Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1032 AM CST Mon Mar 03 2025 Valid 031630Z - 041200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF NORTH-CENTRAL TEXAS AND WESTERN/CENTRAL OKLAHOMA... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorms should increase late this evening and merge into a squall line overnight across parts of the southern and central Plains. Several tornadoes, scattered to numerous severe wind gusts, and large hail are all possible. ...Southern/Central Plains... A pronounced upper trough with attendant 80-100 kt mid-level jet will eject eastward from the Great Basin and Southwest across the southern/central High Plains through tonight. As large-scale ascent associated with this system overspreads the High Plains, lee cyclogenesis will occur over eastern CO. This surface low should deepen further late tonight into early Tuesday morning as it develops into western KS, and as a Pacific cold front sweeps east-southeastward over the southern High Plains through the end of the period. Low-level moisture (surface dewpoints generally in the upper 50s to low/mid 60s) over south/central TX this morning will continue to stream northward over the southern/central Plains ahead of the cold front and an eastward-mixing dryline. Current expectations are for a cap to inhibit robust, surface-based thunderstorm development until late this evening, likely after 03Z. Once the large-scale ascent preceding the upper trough and the Pacific cold front begin to intersect with the warm sector, intense thunderstorms should quickly develop over parts of western OK into south-central KS. Steep mid-level lapse rates, cold temperatures aloft, increasing low-level moisture, and strong deep-layer shear will all contribute to an environment conducive for supercells, with an associated threat for large hail initially. A fairly quick transition to a more linear/QLCS mode is expected as the cold front moves quickly east-southeastward overnight across KS/OK and north TX. Ample low-level shear will be present owing to a 45-60 kt south-southwesterly low-level jet, and embedded circulations within the line will likely be capable of producing tornadoes, assuming sufficient boundary-layer instability to support surface-based convection. Even with various NAM/RAP forecast soundings showing near-neutral lapse rates in the boundary layer overnight, the strength of the low-level flow should still be more than enough to support at least scattered severe/damaging winds with the line as it sweeps eastward across the southern/central Plains through the end of the period (early Tuesday morning). Recent surface observations show at least low 60s surface dewpoints into parts of western north TX and the Red River vicinity of southwest OK. This appears to be a little ahead of schedule for some guidance, and with about 12 more hours of low-level moisture return likely ahead of the cold front, concern is increasing that around 63-64F surface dewpoints should be in place across parts of western/central OK into north-central TX by the time convective initiation occurs tonight. An Enhanced Risk for tornadoes and severe/damaging winds has been introduced across parts of this region where confidence in surface-based thunderstorms and the best combination of instability and low-level shear is forecast. ..Gleason/Thornton.. 03/03/2025 Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1032 AM CST Mon Mar 03 2025 Valid 031630Z - 041200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF NORTH-CENTRAL TEXAS AND WESTERN/CENTRAL OKLAHOMA... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorms should increase late this evening and merge into a squall line overnight across parts of the southern and central Plains. Several tornadoes, scattered to numerous severe wind gusts, and large hail are all possible. ...Southern/Central Plains... A pronounced upper trough with attendant 80-100 kt mid-level jet will eject eastward from the Great Basin and Southwest across the southern/central High Plains through tonight. As large-scale ascent associated with this system overspreads the High Plains, lee cyclogenesis will occur over eastern CO. This surface low should deepen further late tonight into early Tuesday morning as it develops into western KS, and as a Pacific cold front sweeps east-southeastward over the southern High Plains through the end of the period. Low-level moisture (surface dewpoints generally in the upper 50s to low/mid 60s) over south/central TX this morning will continue to stream northward over the southern/central Plains ahead of the cold front and an eastward-mixing dryline. Current expectations are for a cap to inhibit robust, surface-based thunderstorm development until late this evening, likely after 03Z. Once the large-scale ascent preceding the upper trough and the Pacific cold front begin to intersect with the warm sector, intense thunderstorms should quickly develop over parts of western OK into south-central KS. Steep mid-level lapse rates, cold temperatures aloft, increasing low-level moisture, and strong deep-layer shear will all contribute to an environment conducive for supercells, with an associated threat for large hail initially. A fairly quick transition to a more linear/QLCS mode is expected as the cold front moves quickly east-southeastward overnight across KS/OK and north TX. Ample low-level shear will be present owing to a 45-60 kt south-southwesterly low-level jet, and embedded circulations within the line will likely be capable of producing tornadoes, assuming sufficient boundary-layer instability to support surface-based convection. Even with various NAM/RAP forecast soundings showing near-neutral lapse rates in the boundary layer overnight, the strength of the low-level flow should still be more than enough to support at least scattered severe/damaging winds with the line as it sweeps eastward across the southern/central Plains through the end of the period (early Tuesday morning). Recent surface observations show at least low 60s surface dewpoints into parts of western north TX and the Red River vicinity of southwest OK. This appears to be a little ahead of schedule for some guidance, and with about 12 more hours of low-level moisture return likely ahead of the cold front, concern is increasing that around 63-64F surface dewpoints should be in place across parts of western/central OK into north-central TX by the time convective initiation occurs tonight. An Enhanced Risk for tornadoes and severe/damaging winds has been introduced across parts of this region where confidence in surface-based thunderstorms and the best combination of instability and low-level shear is forecast. ..Gleason/Thornton.. 03/03/2025 Read more

SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0646 AM CST Mon Mar 03 2025 Valid 031300Z - 041200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS LATE THIS EVENING AND TONIGHT ACROSS PORTIONS OF SOUTHEAST KANSAS...MUCH OF OKLAHOMA...AND NORTH TEXAS.... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorms should increase this evening and merge into a squall line tonight across portions of the southern Plains. Severe gusts, large hail, and a few tornadoes are possible. ...KS/OK/TX... A large and progressive upper low is tracking eastward this morning across the Great Basin. As this system and an associated 90-100 knot mid-level jet emerge into the Rockies and high Plains this afternoon, rapid surface cyclogenesis will occur over eastern CO. Southerly low-level winds throughout the southern Plains will transport Gulf moisture northward with 50s dewpoints into southeast KS and lower 60s into central OK. It appears likely that the region will remain capped to convective initiation through the afternoon and much of the evening. However, rapid and intense thunderstorm development is expected after 03z in south-central KS and northwest OK as the Pacific cold front impinges on the dryline, and large scale lift overspreads the area. Initial storms will form in an environment of steep mid-level lapse rates and favorable low-level shear for a few supercells capable of large hail and damaging wind gusts. These storms are expected to quickly coalesce into a squall line along the front as it races eastward across southern KS and much of OK. Storms will also build southward into north/central TX through the overnight period. Very strong low-level wind fields (850mb winds of 50-70 knots) and mid-level lapse rates of 7+ C/km will maintain a risk of damaging wind gusts and hail through the early morning hours. A few QLCS tornadoes, or perhaps embedded supercellular tornadoes, are also possible late tonight as activity progresses across southern OK and north TX. The primary forecast uncertainties limiting confidence for an upgrade at this time involve the limited low-level moisture (upper 50s to low 60s dewpoints) and weak CAPE due to late timing of event. These parameters will be re-evaluated in later outlooks. ..Hart/Grams.. 03/03/2025 Read more

SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0646 AM CST Mon Mar 03 2025 Valid 031300Z - 041200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS LATE THIS EVENING AND TONIGHT ACROSS PORTIONS OF SOUTHEAST KANSAS...MUCH OF OKLAHOMA...AND NORTH TEXAS.... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorms should increase this evening and merge into a squall line tonight across portions of the southern Plains. Severe gusts, large hail, and a few tornadoes are possible. ...KS/OK/TX... A large and progressive upper low is tracking eastward this morning across the Great Basin. As this system and an associated 90-100 knot mid-level jet emerge into the Rockies and high Plains this afternoon, rapid surface cyclogenesis will occur over eastern CO. Southerly low-level winds throughout the southern Plains will transport Gulf moisture northward with 50s dewpoints into southeast KS and lower 60s into central OK. It appears likely that the region will remain capped to convective initiation through the afternoon and much of the evening. However, rapid and intense thunderstorm development is expected after 03z in south-central KS and northwest OK as the Pacific cold front impinges on the dryline, and large scale lift overspreads the area. Initial storms will form in an environment of steep mid-level lapse rates and favorable low-level shear for a few supercells capable of large hail and damaging wind gusts. These storms are expected to quickly coalesce into a squall line along the front as it races eastward across southern KS and much of OK. Storms will also build southward into north/central TX through the overnight period. Very strong low-level wind fields (850mb winds of 50-70 knots) and mid-level lapse rates of 7+ C/km will maintain a risk of damaging wind gusts and hail through the early morning hours. A few QLCS tornadoes, or perhaps embedded supercellular tornadoes, are also possible late tonight as activity progresses across southern OK and north TX. The primary forecast uncertainties limiting confidence for an upgrade at this time involve the limited low-level moisture (upper 50s to low 60s dewpoints) and weak CAPE due to late timing of event. These parameters will be re-evaluated in later outlooks. ..Hart/Grams.. 03/03/2025 Read more

SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0646 AM CST Mon Mar 03 2025 Valid 031300Z - 041200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS LATE THIS EVENING AND TONIGHT ACROSS PORTIONS OF SOUTHEAST KANSAS...MUCH OF OKLAHOMA...AND NORTH TEXAS.... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorms should increase this evening and merge into a squall line tonight across portions of the southern Plains. Severe gusts, large hail, and a few tornadoes are possible. ...KS/OK/TX... A large and progressive upper low is tracking eastward this morning across the Great Basin. As this system and an associated 90-100 knot mid-level jet emerge into the Rockies and high Plains this afternoon, rapid surface cyclogenesis will occur over eastern CO. Southerly low-level winds throughout the southern Plains will transport Gulf moisture northward with 50s dewpoints into southeast KS and lower 60s into central OK. It appears likely that the region will remain capped to convective initiation through the afternoon and much of the evening. However, rapid and intense thunderstorm development is expected after 03z in south-central KS and northwest OK as the Pacific cold front impinges on the dryline, and large scale lift overspreads the area. Initial storms will form in an environment of steep mid-level lapse rates and favorable low-level shear for a few supercells capable of large hail and damaging wind gusts. These storms are expected to quickly coalesce into a squall line along the front as it races eastward across southern KS and much of OK. Storms will also build southward into north/central TX through the overnight period. Very strong low-level wind fields (850mb winds of 50-70 knots) and mid-level lapse rates of 7+ C/km will maintain a risk of damaging wind gusts and hail through the early morning hours. A few QLCS tornadoes, or perhaps embedded supercellular tornadoes, are also possible late tonight as activity progresses across southern OK and north TX. The primary forecast uncertainties limiting confidence for an upgrade at this time involve the limited low-level moisture (upper 50s to low 60s dewpoints) and weak CAPE due to late timing of event. These parameters will be re-evaluated in later outlooks. ..Hart/Grams.. 03/03/2025 Read more

SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0646 AM CST Mon Mar 03 2025 Valid 031300Z - 041200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS LATE THIS EVENING AND TONIGHT ACROSS PORTIONS OF SOUTHEAST KANSAS...MUCH OF OKLAHOMA...AND NORTH TEXAS.... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorms should increase this evening and merge into a squall line tonight across portions of the southern Plains. Severe gusts, large hail, and a few tornadoes are possible. ...KS/OK/TX... A large and progressive upper low is tracking eastward this morning across the Great Basin. As this system and an associated 90-100 knot mid-level jet emerge into the Rockies and high Plains this afternoon, rapid surface cyclogenesis will occur over eastern CO. Southerly low-level winds throughout the southern Plains will transport Gulf moisture northward with 50s dewpoints into southeast KS and lower 60s into central OK. It appears likely that the region will remain capped to convective initiation through the afternoon and much of the evening. However, rapid and intense thunderstorm development is expected after 03z in south-central KS and northwest OK as the Pacific cold front impinges on the dryline, and large scale lift overspreads the area. Initial storms will form in an environment of steep mid-level lapse rates and favorable low-level shear for a few supercells capable of large hail and damaging wind gusts. These storms are expected to quickly coalesce into a squall line along the front as it races eastward across southern KS and much of OK. Storms will also build southward into north/central TX through the overnight period. Very strong low-level wind fields (850mb winds of 50-70 knots) and mid-level lapse rates of 7+ C/km will maintain a risk of damaging wind gusts and hail through the early morning hours. A few QLCS tornadoes, or perhaps embedded supercellular tornadoes, are also possible late tonight as activity progresses across southern OK and north TX. The primary forecast uncertainties limiting confidence for an upgrade at this time involve the limited low-level moisture (upper 50s to low 60s dewpoints) and weak CAPE due to late timing of event. These parameters will be re-evaluated in later outlooks. ..Hart/Grams.. 03/03/2025 Read more

SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0646 AM CST Mon Mar 03 2025 Valid 031300Z - 041200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS LATE THIS EVENING AND TONIGHT ACROSS PORTIONS OF SOUTHEAST KANSAS...MUCH OF OKLAHOMA...AND NORTH TEXAS.... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorms should increase this evening and merge into a squall line tonight across portions of the southern Plains. Severe gusts, large hail, and a few tornadoes are possible. ...KS/OK/TX... A large and progressive upper low is tracking eastward this morning across the Great Basin. As this system and an associated 90-100 knot mid-level jet emerge into the Rockies and high Plains this afternoon, rapid surface cyclogenesis will occur over eastern CO. Southerly low-level winds throughout the southern Plains will transport Gulf moisture northward with 50s dewpoints into southeast KS and lower 60s into central OK. It appears likely that the region will remain capped to convective initiation through the afternoon and much of the evening. However, rapid and intense thunderstorm development is expected after 03z in south-central KS and northwest OK as the Pacific cold front impinges on the dryline, and large scale lift overspreads the area. Initial storms will form in an environment of steep mid-level lapse rates and favorable low-level shear for a few supercells capable of large hail and damaging wind gusts. These storms are expected to quickly coalesce into a squall line along the front as it races eastward across southern KS and much of OK. Storms will also build southward into north/central TX through the overnight period. Very strong low-level wind fields (850mb winds of 50-70 knots) and mid-level lapse rates of 7+ C/km will maintain a risk of damaging wind gusts and hail through the early morning hours. A few QLCS tornadoes, or perhaps embedded supercellular tornadoes, are also possible late tonight as activity progresses across southern OK and north TX. The primary forecast uncertainties limiting confidence for an upgrade at this time involve the limited low-level moisture (upper 50s to low 60s dewpoints) and weak CAPE due to late timing of event. These parameters will be re-evaluated in later outlooks. ..Hart/Grams.. 03/03/2025 Read more

SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0646 AM CST Mon Mar 03 2025 Valid 031300Z - 041200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS LATE THIS EVENING AND TONIGHT ACROSS PORTIONS OF SOUTHEAST KANSAS...MUCH OF OKLAHOMA...AND NORTH TEXAS.... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorms should increase this evening and merge into a squall line tonight across portions of the southern Plains. Severe gusts, large hail, and a few tornadoes are possible. ...KS/OK/TX... A large and progressive upper low is tracking eastward this morning across the Great Basin. As this system and an associated 90-100 knot mid-level jet emerge into the Rockies and high Plains this afternoon, rapid surface cyclogenesis will occur over eastern CO. Southerly low-level winds throughout the southern Plains will transport Gulf moisture northward with 50s dewpoints into southeast KS and lower 60s into central OK. It appears likely that the region will remain capped to convective initiation through the afternoon and much of the evening. However, rapid and intense thunderstorm development is expected after 03z in south-central KS and northwest OK as the Pacific cold front impinges on the dryline, and large scale lift overspreads the area. Initial storms will form in an environment of steep mid-level lapse rates and favorable low-level shear for a few supercells capable of large hail and damaging wind gusts. These storms are expected to quickly coalesce into a squall line along the front as it races eastward across southern KS and much of OK. Storms will also build southward into north/central TX through the overnight period. Very strong low-level wind fields (850mb winds of 50-70 knots) and mid-level lapse rates of 7+ C/km will maintain a risk of damaging wind gusts and hail through the early morning hours. A few QLCS tornadoes, or perhaps embedded supercellular tornadoes, are also possible late tonight as activity progresses across southern OK and north TX. The primary forecast uncertainties limiting confidence for an upgrade at this time involve the limited low-level moisture (upper 50s to low 60s dewpoints) and weak CAPE due to late timing of event. These parameters will be re-evaluated in later outlooks. ..Hart/Grams.. 03/03/2025 Read more

SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0646 AM CST Mon Mar 03 2025 Valid 031300Z - 041200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS LATE THIS EVENING AND TONIGHT ACROSS PORTIONS OF SOUTHEAST KANSAS...MUCH OF OKLAHOMA...AND NORTH TEXAS.... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorms should increase this evening and merge into a squall line tonight across portions of the southern Plains. Severe gusts, large hail, and a few tornadoes are possible. ...KS/OK/TX... A large and progressive upper low is tracking eastward this morning across the Great Basin. As this system and an associated 90-100 knot mid-level jet emerge into the Rockies and high Plains this afternoon, rapid surface cyclogenesis will occur over eastern CO. Southerly low-level winds throughout the southern Plains will transport Gulf moisture northward with 50s dewpoints into southeast KS and lower 60s into central OK. It appears likely that the region will remain capped to convective initiation through the afternoon and much of the evening. However, rapid and intense thunderstorm development is expected after 03z in south-central KS and northwest OK as the Pacific cold front impinges on the dryline, and large scale lift overspreads the area. Initial storms will form in an environment of steep mid-level lapse rates and favorable low-level shear for a few supercells capable of large hail and damaging wind gusts. These storms are expected to quickly coalesce into a squall line along the front as it races eastward across southern KS and much of OK. Storms will also build southward into north/central TX through the overnight period. Very strong low-level wind fields (850mb winds of 50-70 knots) and mid-level lapse rates of 7+ C/km will maintain a risk of damaging wind gusts and hail through the early morning hours. A few QLCS tornadoes, or perhaps embedded supercellular tornadoes, are also possible late tonight as activity progresses across southern OK and north TX. The primary forecast uncertainties limiting confidence for an upgrade at this time involve the limited low-level moisture (upper 50s to low 60s dewpoints) and weak CAPE due to late timing of event. These parameters will be re-evaluated in later outlooks. ..Hart/Grams.. 03/03/2025 Read more

Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0354 AM CST Mon Mar 03 2025 Valid 061200Z - 111200Z ...DISCUSSION... As a significant short wave trough pivots northeastward away from the Mid Atlantic coast, models indicate that strong secondary cyclogenesis may occur across and north of the Canadian Maritimes late this week. In its wake, it appears that a confluent mid-level flow regime will generally prevail, downstream of large-scale troughing developing inland of the Pacific coast. As this troughing continues eastward, models indicate that one emerging short wave impulse may support fairly strong renewed surface cyclogenesis to the lee of the Colorado Rockies on Thursday into Friday. It appears this will occur before western Gulf boundary-layer modification can support appreciable low-level moistening on southerly return flow. As the short wave accelerates into and through the confluent regime, models indicate that the cyclone will weaken while migrating across the central Great Plains into Ohio Valley. But a trailing cold front may provide a focus for renewed frontal wave development, as an upstream mid-level perturbation accelerates east of the Texas Big Bend through the south Atlantic Seaboard by late next weekend. This may be accompanied by moistening and destabilization across parts of the central and eastern Gulf into south Atlantic Coast states on Saturday into Sunday, in the presence of strengthening shear. This could contribute to an environment at least marginally supportive of organized strong thunderstorm development. However, barring stronger cyclogenesis than currently forecast across the Southeast, the severe weather potential still appears relatively low. Read more

Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0354 AM CST Mon Mar 03 2025 Valid 061200Z - 111200Z ...DISCUSSION... As a significant short wave trough pivots northeastward away from the Mid Atlantic coast, models indicate that strong secondary cyclogenesis may occur across and north of the Canadian Maritimes late this week. In its wake, it appears that a confluent mid-level flow regime will generally prevail, downstream of large-scale troughing developing inland of the Pacific coast. As this troughing continues eastward, models indicate that one emerging short wave impulse may support fairly strong renewed surface cyclogenesis to the lee of the Colorado Rockies on Thursday into Friday. It appears this will occur before western Gulf boundary-layer modification can support appreciable low-level moistening on southerly return flow. As the short wave accelerates into and through the confluent regime, models indicate that the cyclone will weaken while migrating across the central Great Plains into Ohio Valley. But a trailing cold front may provide a focus for renewed frontal wave development, as an upstream mid-level perturbation accelerates east of the Texas Big Bend through the south Atlantic Seaboard by late next weekend. This may be accompanied by moistening and destabilization across parts of the central and eastern Gulf into south Atlantic Coast states on Saturday into Sunday, in the presence of strengthening shear. This could contribute to an environment at least marginally supportive of organized strong thunderstorm development. However, barring stronger cyclogenesis than currently forecast across the Southeast, the severe weather potential still appears relatively low. Read more

Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0354 AM CST Mon Mar 03 2025 Valid 061200Z - 111200Z ...DISCUSSION... As a significant short wave trough pivots northeastward away from the Mid Atlantic coast, models indicate that strong secondary cyclogenesis may occur across and north of the Canadian Maritimes late this week. In its wake, it appears that a confluent mid-level flow regime will generally prevail, downstream of large-scale troughing developing inland of the Pacific coast. As this troughing continues eastward, models indicate that one emerging short wave impulse may support fairly strong renewed surface cyclogenesis to the lee of the Colorado Rockies on Thursday into Friday. It appears this will occur before western Gulf boundary-layer modification can support appreciable low-level moistening on southerly return flow. As the short wave accelerates into and through the confluent regime, models indicate that the cyclone will weaken while migrating across the central Great Plains into Ohio Valley. But a trailing cold front may provide a focus for renewed frontal wave development, as an upstream mid-level perturbation accelerates east of the Texas Big Bend through the south Atlantic Seaboard by late next weekend. This may be accompanied by moistening and destabilization across parts of the central and eastern Gulf into south Atlantic Coast states on Saturday into Sunday, in the presence of strengthening shear. This could contribute to an environment at least marginally supportive of organized strong thunderstorm development. However, barring stronger cyclogenesis than currently forecast across the Southeast, the severe weather potential still appears relatively low. Read more

Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0354 AM CST Mon Mar 03 2025 Valid 061200Z - 111200Z ...DISCUSSION... As a significant short wave trough pivots northeastward away from the Mid Atlantic coast, models indicate that strong secondary cyclogenesis may occur across and north of the Canadian Maritimes late this week. In its wake, it appears that a confluent mid-level flow regime will generally prevail, downstream of large-scale troughing developing inland of the Pacific coast. As this troughing continues eastward, models indicate that one emerging short wave impulse may support fairly strong renewed surface cyclogenesis to the lee of the Colorado Rockies on Thursday into Friday. It appears this will occur before western Gulf boundary-layer modification can support appreciable low-level moistening on southerly return flow. As the short wave accelerates into and through the confluent regime, models indicate that the cyclone will weaken while migrating across the central Great Plains into Ohio Valley. But a trailing cold front may provide a focus for renewed frontal wave development, as an upstream mid-level perturbation accelerates east of the Texas Big Bend through the south Atlantic Seaboard by late next weekend. This may be accompanied by moistening and destabilization across parts of the central and eastern Gulf into south Atlantic Coast states on Saturday into Sunday, in the presence of strengthening shear. This could contribute to an environment at least marginally supportive of organized strong thunderstorm development. However, barring stronger cyclogenesis than currently forecast across the Southeast, the severe weather potential still appears relatively low. Read more