Severe Storms

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0322 PM CST Sun Mar 02 2025 Valid 041200Z - 101200Z An active weather pattern will continue across the CONUS, resulting in multiple days of potentially enhanced fire-weather conditions later this week across various portions of the Southern Plains. ...Day 3/Tuesday... A high-amplitude upper-level trough positioned over the south-central CONUS will shift east throughout the day. A mid-level jet will accompany this feature, with embedded 100+ kt mid-level flow. Diurnally driven mixing will allow for a broad region of enhanced westerly surface winds to develop across the Southern Plains, with sustained winds of 25-35 mph and gusts near 45-50+ mph. RH values will fall into the teens over most of this region, with single digit values likely with southward extent. Thus, 70% probabilities have been maintained, with some expansion made into Southwest/South-Central Texas. Localized Extremely Critical conditions may be possible for portions of the region, though details on placement remain somewhat uncertain. Additionally, the zone of enhanced winds/RH may extend into portions of eastern Texas for a few hours late in the day, however, fuels in this region appear less receptive to large-fire spread, precluding any further expansion of probabilities at this time. ...Day 5/Thursday... Another upper-level trough will enter the West Coast and de-amplify with time while merging with the aforementioned Day 3 trough that will be positioned along the East Coast. Consequently, enhanced mid-level flow will begin overspreading the Southern Plains on Thursday, with lee cyclogenesis commencing during the afternoon. These factors should produce a broad region of enhanced surface winds and lowered RH over the southern High Plains. Enough agreement exists in medium-range guidance to introduce 70% probabilities for the region, confined to an area with the most agreement. Only slight adjustments were made to the 40% probabilities. ...Day 6/Friday... Another broad region of enhanced surface winds and lowered RH should develop across the Southern Plains as the remainder of the upper-level trough propagates through the region. Medium-range guidance continues to show less agreement, but enough to warrant maintaining the 40% probabilities at this time. ...Day 7/Saturday... As the upper-level trough exits the Southern Plains region, strong post-frontal winds may produce fire-weather conditions for parts of the region. However, the strength and placement of these features remain too uncertain to introduce any probabilities at this time. ..Karstens.. 03/02/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0322 PM CST Sun Mar 02 2025 Valid 041200Z - 101200Z An active weather pattern will continue across the CONUS, resulting in multiple days of potentially enhanced fire-weather conditions later this week across various portions of the Southern Plains. ...Day 3/Tuesday... A high-amplitude upper-level trough positioned over the south-central CONUS will shift east throughout the day. A mid-level jet will accompany this feature, with embedded 100+ kt mid-level flow. Diurnally driven mixing will allow for a broad region of enhanced westerly surface winds to develop across the Southern Plains, with sustained winds of 25-35 mph and gusts near 45-50+ mph. RH values will fall into the teens over most of this region, with single digit values likely with southward extent. Thus, 70% probabilities have been maintained, with some expansion made into Southwest/South-Central Texas. Localized Extremely Critical conditions may be possible for portions of the region, though details on placement remain somewhat uncertain. Additionally, the zone of enhanced winds/RH may extend into portions of eastern Texas for a few hours late in the day, however, fuels in this region appear less receptive to large-fire spread, precluding any further expansion of probabilities at this time. ...Day 5/Thursday... Another upper-level trough will enter the West Coast and de-amplify with time while merging with the aforementioned Day 3 trough that will be positioned along the East Coast. Consequently, enhanced mid-level flow will begin overspreading the Southern Plains on Thursday, with lee cyclogenesis commencing during the afternoon. These factors should produce a broad region of enhanced surface winds and lowered RH over the southern High Plains. Enough agreement exists in medium-range guidance to introduce 70% probabilities for the region, confined to an area with the most agreement. Only slight adjustments were made to the 40% probabilities. ...Day 6/Friday... Another broad region of enhanced surface winds and lowered RH should develop across the Southern Plains as the remainder of the upper-level trough propagates through the region. Medium-range guidance continues to show less agreement, but enough to warrant maintaining the 40% probabilities at this time. ...Day 7/Saturday... As the upper-level trough exits the Southern Plains region, strong post-frontal winds may produce fire-weather conditions for parts of the region. However, the strength and placement of these features remain too uncertain to introduce any probabilities at this time. ..Karstens.. 03/02/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0322 PM CST Sun Mar 02 2025 Valid 041200Z - 101200Z An active weather pattern will continue across the CONUS, resulting in multiple days of potentially enhanced fire-weather conditions later this week across various portions of the Southern Plains. ...Day 3/Tuesday... A high-amplitude upper-level trough positioned over the south-central CONUS will shift east throughout the day. A mid-level jet will accompany this feature, with embedded 100+ kt mid-level flow. Diurnally driven mixing will allow for a broad region of enhanced westerly surface winds to develop across the Southern Plains, with sustained winds of 25-35 mph and gusts near 45-50+ mph. RH values will fall into the teens over most of this region, with single digit values likely with southward extent. Thus, 70% probabilities have been maintained, with some expansion made into Southwest/South-Central Texas. Localized Extremely Critical conditions may be possible for portions of the region, though details on placement remain somewhat uncertain. Additionally, the zone of enhanced winds/RH may extend into portions of eastern Texas for a few hours late in the day, however, fuels in this region appear less receptive to large-fire spread, precluding any further expansion of probabilities at this time. ...Day 5/Thursday... Another upper-level trough will enter the West Coast and de-amplify with time while merging with the aforementioned Day 3 trough that will be positioned along the East Coast. Consequently, enhanced mid-level flow will begin overspreading the Southern Plains on Thursday, with lee cyclogenesis commencing during the afternoon. These factors should produce a broad region of enhanced surface winds and lowered RH over the southern High Plains. Enough agreement exists in medium-range guidance to introduce 70% probabilities for the region, confined to an area with the most agreement. Only slight adjustments were made to the 40% probabilities. ...Day 6/Friday... Another broad region of enhanced surface winds and lowered RH should develop across the Southern Plains as the remainder of the upper-level trough propagates through the region. Medium-range guidance continues to show less agreement, but enough to warrant maintaining the 40% probabilities at this time. ...Day 7/Saturday... As the upper-level trough exits the Southern Plains region, strong post-frontal winds may produce fire-weather conditions for parts of the region. However, the strength and placement of these features remain too uncertain to introduce any probabilities at this time. ..Karstens.. 03/02/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0322 PM CST Sun Mar 02 2025 Valid 041200Z - 101200Z An active weather pattern will continue across the CONUS, resulting in multiple days of potentially enhanced fire-weather conditions later this week across various portions of the Southern Plains. ...Day 3/Tuesday... A high-amplitude upper-level trough positioned over the south-central CONUS will shift east throughout the day. A mid-level jet will accompany this feature, with embedded 100+ kt mid-level flow. Diurnally driven mixing will allow for a broad region of enhanced westerly surface winds to develop across the Southern Plains, with sustained winds of 25-35 mph and gusts near 45-50+ mph. RH values will fall into the teens over most of this region, with single digit values likely with southward extent. Thus, 70% probabilities have been maintained, with some expansion made into Southwest/South-Central Texas. Localized Extremely Critical conditions may be possible for portions of the region, though details on placement remain somewhat uncertain. Additionally, the zone of enhanced winds/RH may extend into portions of eastern Texas for a few hours late in the day, however, fuels in this region appear less receptive to large-fire spread, precluding any further expansion of probabilities at this time. ...Day 5/Thursday... Another upper-level trough will enter the West Coast and de-amplify with time while merging with the aforementioned Day 3 trough that will be positioned along the East Coast. Consequently, enhanced mid-level flow will begin overspreading the Southern Plains on Thursday, with lee cyclogenesis commencing during the afternoon. These factors should produce a broad region of enhanced surface winds and lowered RH over the southern High Plains. Enough agreement exists in medium-range guidance to introduce 70% probabilities for the region, confined to an area with the most agreement. Only slight adjustments were made to the 40% probabilities. ...Day 6/Friday... Another broad region of enhanced surface winds and lowered RH should develop across the Southern Plains as the remainder of the upper-level trough propagates through the region. Medium-range guidance continues to show less agreement, but enough to warrant maintaining the 40% probabilities at this time. ...Day 7/Saturday... As the upper-level trough exits the Southern Plains region, strong post-frontal winds may produce fire-weather conditions for parts of the region. However, the strength and placement of these features remain too uncertain to introduce any probabilities at this time. ..Karstens.. 03/02/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0322 PM CST Sun Mar 02 2025 Valid 041200Z - 101200Z An active weather pattern will continue across the CONUS, resulting in multiple days of potentially enhanced fire-weather conditions later this week across various portions of the Southern Plains. ...Day 3/Tuesday... A high-amplitude upper-level trough positioned over the south-central CONUS will shift east throughout the day. A mid-level jet will accompany this feature, with embedded 100+ kt mid-level flow. Diurnally driven mixing will allow for a broad region of enhanced westerly surface winds to develop across the Southern Plains, with sustained winds of 25-35 mph and gusts near 45-50+ mph. RH values will fall into the teens over most of this region, with single digit values likely with southward extent. Thus, 70% probabilities have been maintained, with some expansion made into Southwest/South-Central Texas. Localized Extremely Critical conditions may be possible for portions of the region, though details on placement remain somewhat uncertain. Additionally, the zone of enhanced winds/RH may extend into portions of eastern Texas for a few hours late in the day, however, fuels in this region appear less receptive to large-fire spread, precluding any further expansion of probabilities at this time. ...Day 5/Thursday... Another upper-level trough will enter the West Coast and de-amplify with time while merging with the aforementioned Day 3 trough that will be positioned along the East Coast. Consequently, enhanced mid-level flow will begin overspreading the Southern Plains on Thursday, with lee cyclogenesis commencing during the afternoon. These factors should produce a broad region of enhanced surface winds and lowered RH over the southern High Plains. Enough agreement exists in medium-range guidance to introduce 70% probabilities for the region, confined to an area with the most agreement. Only slight adjustments were made to the 40% probabilities. ...Day 6/Friday... Another broad region of enhanced surface winds and lowered RH should develop across the Southern Plains as the remainder of the upper-level trough propagates through the region. Medium-range guidance continues to show less agreement, but enough to warrant maintaining the 40% probabilities at this time. ...Day 7/Saturday... As the upper-level trough exits the Southern Plains region, strong post-frontal winds may produce fire-weather conditions for parts of the region. However, the strength and placement of these features remain too uncertain to introduce any probabilities at this time. ..Karstens.. 03/02/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

WW 0015 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 15 THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES ACROSS THE ENTIRE WATCH AREA. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION SEE MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0122 ..DEAN..03/02/25 ATTN...WFO...OUN... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 15 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS OKC009-031-033-055-057-065-075-141-149-022240- OK . OKLAHOMA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE BECKHAM COMANCHE COTTON GREER HARMON JACKSON KIOWA TILLMAN WASHITA TXC009-023-077-155-197-275-485-487-022240- TX . TEXAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE ARCHER BAYLOR CLAY FOARD HARDEMAN KNOX WICHITA WILBARGER THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES. Read more

WW 0015 Status Updates
STATUS FOR WATCH 0015 HAS NOT BEEN ISSUED YET Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0155 PM CST Sun Mar 02 2025 Valid 022000Z - 031200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE EASTERN TEXAS PANHANDLE INTO SOUTHWESTERN OKLAHOMA AND WESTERN NORTH TEXAS... ...SUMMARY... Isolated severe thunderstorms appear possible from the eastern Texas Panhandle into western Oklahoma and western north Texas this afternoon and early evening. Large hail and severe wind gusts should be the main threats, but a couple of tornadoes are also possible. ...20z Update... The latest surface analysis and satellite imagery show an arc of low-topped convection developing along a convergent dryline within the clear slot of the strong upper low ejecting eastward over the southern Plains. Recent surface obs show moisture increasing into the low to mid 50s F from roughly Childress, TX eastward into far southwestern OK and south to Interstate 20. Roughly 250-500 J/kg of MUCAPE is expected within a confined warm sector from the southeastern TX panhandle to the Red River vicinity of western north TX and southwest OK. Despite limited surface moisture, convection should intensify and strong veering wind profiles may support a few supercells. Steep low and mid-level lapse rates will favor a risk for damaging gusts and hail with the more robust storms. Large low-level buoyancy (0-3km MUCAPE of 75-150 J/kg), ample vertical vorticity and strong shear could also support a couple of tornadoes. Contingent upon storms remaining semi discrete, this may occur within a localized corridor near the surface warm front over the southeastern TX Panhandle to far southwest OK and western north TX, where shear and surface moisture are maximized. Have extended the MRGL south where convection is developing along the dryline near I-20. Have also shifted the SLGT southward toward the deeper moisture and stronger buoyancy. See MCD#0121 and the prior outlook for additional details. ..Lyons.. 03/02/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1020 AM CST Sun Mar 02 2025/ ...Southern High Plains... Elevated thunderstorms have developed this morning across parts of the TX Panhandle and northwest TX, as an upper low continues eastward over the southern High Plains. This activity may pose an isolated small hail risk in the short term with weak MUCAPE present, but greater severe potential remains evident later this afternoon and early evening. A very strong (80-100 kt) mid-level westerly jet is present in the base of the mid/upper-level low. Strong large-scale ascent associated with the left exit region of this jet will overspread the TX Panhandle/northwest TX and parts of western OK by this afternoon, encouraging robust thunderstorm development by 20-21Z. This activity will likely form along or just east of a weak surface low and attendant dryline that will be present over the eastern TX Panhandle and northwest TX. The primary limiting factor for the severe threat across this region still appears to be rather modest low-level moisture, with latest surface observations showing low to mid 50s surface dewpoints confined well south to parts of central/south TX. Even so, there is a chance for modest moistening though this afternoon, as ongoing elevated precipitation may help saturate low/mid levels to some extent. Mid-level lapse rates are also expected to quickly steepen through the day as the upper low moves eastward, and as cold mid-level temperatures gradually overspread the narrow warm sector. There may be a small/mesoscale corridor of greater severe threat this afternoon/early evening across southwest OK/western north TX and vicinity, where greater low-level heating appears possible behind the morning activity, and where somewhat better low-level moisture and related instability should be present. Current expectations are for the afternoon/early evening convection to pose a threat for mainly large hail and severe/damaging winds, as favorable lapse rates aloft and sufficient deep-layer shear support supercell structures initially. But, there is some veer-back-veer signal in the 2-5 km layer from various NAM/RAP forecast soundings, and convection may grow into a small bowing cluster fairly quickly (as shown by several HREF members). The severe threat will likely be limited in space and time by the narrow/small warm sector, with a more isolated/limited severe threat with eastward extent into central OK and north-central TX this evening due to weaker instability. Finally, the tornado potential remains a bit unclear, as low-level moisture will be quite limited. Still, a small zone of sufficient 0-3 km CAPE and ambient boundary-layer vorticity along the northward-developing warm front may support a couple of tornadoes given otherwise favorable low-level shear. Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0155 PM CST Sun Mar 02 2025 Valid 022000Z - 031200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE EASTERN TEXAS PANHANDLE INTO SOUTHWESTERN OKLAHOMA AND WESTERN NORTH TEXAS... ...SUMMARY... Isolated severe thunderstorms appear possible from the eastern Texas Panhandle into western Oklahoma and western north Texas this afternoon and early evening. Large hail and severe wind gusts should be the main threats, but a couple of tornadoes are also possible. ...20z Update... The latest surface analysis and satellite imagery show an arc of low-topped convection developing along a convergent dryline within the clear slot of the strong upper low ejecting eastward over the southern Plains. Recent surface obs show moisture increasing into the low to mid 50s F from roughly Childress, TX eastward into far southwestern OK and south to Interstate 20. Roughly 250-500 J/kg of MUCAPE is expected within a confined warm sector from the southeastern TX panhandle to the Red River vicinity of western north TX and southwest OK. Despite limited surface moisture, convection should intensify and strong veering wind profiles may support a few supercells. Steep low and mid-level lapse rates will favor a risk for damaging gusts and hail with the more robust storms. Large low-level buoyancy (0-3km MUCAPE of 75-150 J/kg), ample vertical vorticity and strong shear could also support a couple of tornadoes. Contingent upon storms remaining semi discrete, this may occur within a localized corridor near the surface warm front over the southeastern TX Panhandle to far southwest OK and western north TX, where shear and surface moisture are maximized. Have extended the MRGL south where convection is developing along the dryline near I-20. Have also shifted the SLGT southward toward the deeper moisture and stronger buoyancy. See MCD#0121 and the prior outlook for additional details. ..Lyons.. 03/02/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1020 AM CST Sun Mar 02 2025/ ...Southern High Plains... Elevated thunderstorms have developed this morning across parts of the TX Panhandle and northwest TX, as an upper low continues eastward over the southern High Plains. This activity may pose an isolated small hail risk in the short term with weak MUCAPE present, but greater severe potential remains evident later this afternoon and early evening. A very strong (80-100 kt) mid-level westerly jet is present in the base of the mid/upper-level low. Strong large-scale ascent associated with the left exit region of this jet will overspread the TX Panhandle/northwest TX and parts of western OK by this afternoon, encouraging robust thunderstorm development by 20-21Z. This activity will likely form along or just east of a weak surface low and attendant dryline that will be present over the eastern TX Panhandle and northwest TX. The primary limiting factor for the severe threat across this region still appears to be rather modest low-level moisture, with latest surface observations showing low to mid 50s surface dewpoints confined well south to parts of central/south TX. Even so, there is a chance for modest moistening though this afternoon, as ongoing elevated precipitation may help saturate low/mid levels to some extent. Mid-level lapse rates are also expected to quickly steepen through the day as the upper low moves eastward, and as cold mid-level temperatures gradually overspread the narrow warm sector. There may be a small/mesoscale corridor of greater severe threat this afternoon/early evening across southwest OK/western north TX and vicinity, where greater low-level heating appears possible behind the morning activity, and where somewhat better low-level moisture and related instability should be present. Current expectations are for the afternoon/early evening convection to pose a threat for mainly large hail and severe/damaging winds, as favorable lapse rates aloft and sufficient deep-layer shear support supercell structures initially. But, there is some veer-back-veer signal in the 2-5 km layer from various NAM/RAP forecast soundings, and convection may grow into a small bowing cluster fairly quickly (as shown by several HREF members). The severe threat will likely be limited in space and time by the narrow/small warm sector, with a more isolated/limited severe threat with eastward extent into central OK and north-central TX this evening due to weaker instability. Finally, the tornado potential remains a bit unclear, as low-level moisture will be quite limited. Still, a small zone of sufficient 0-3 km CAPE and ambient boundary-layer vorticity along the northward-developing warm front may support a couple of tornadoes given otherwise favorable low-level shear. Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0155 PM CST Sun Mar 02 2025 Valid 022000Z - 031200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE EASTERN TEXAS PANHANDLE INTO SOUTHWESTERN OKLAHOMA AND WESTERN NORTH TEXAS... ...SUMMARY... Isolated severe thunderstorms appear possible from the eastern Texas Panhandle into western Oklahoma and western north Texas this afternoon and early evening. Large hail and severe wind gusts should be the main threats, but a couple of tornadoes are also possible. ...20z Update... The latest surface analysis and satellite imagery show an arc of low-topped convection developing along a convergent dryline within the clear slot of the strong upper low ejecting eastward over the southern Plains. Recent surface obs show moisture increasing into the low to mid 50s F from roughly Childress, TX eastward into far southwestern OK and south to Interstate 20. Roughly 250-500 J/kg of MUCAPE is expected within a confined warm sector from the southeastern TX panhandle to the Red River vicinity of western north TX and southwest OK. Despite limited surface moisture, convection should intensify and strong veering wind profiles may support a few supercells. Steep low and mid-level lapse rates will favor a risk for damaging gusts and hail with the more robust storms. Large low-level buoyancy (0-3km MUCAPE of 75-150 J/kg), ample vertical vorticity and strong shear could also support a couple of tornadoes. Contingent upon storms remaining semi discrete, this may occur within a localized corridor near the surface warm front over the southeastern TX Panhandle to far southwest OK and western north TX, where shear and surface moisture are maximized. Have extended the MRGL south where convection is developing along the dryline near I-20. Have also shifted the SLGT southward toward the deeper moisture and stronger buoyancy. See MCD#0121 and the prior outlook for additional details. ..Lyons.. 03/02/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1020 AM CST Sun Mar 02 2025/ ...Southern High Plains... Elevated thunderstorms have developed this morning across parts of the TX Panhandle and northwest TX, as an upper low continues eastward over the southern High Plains. This activity may pose an isolated small hail risk in the short term with weak MUCAPE present, but greater severe potential remains evident later this afternoon and early evening. A very strong (80-100 kt) mid-level westerly jet is present in the base of the mid/upper-level low. Strong large-scale ascent associated with the left exit region of this jet will overspread the TX Panhandle/northwest TX and parts of western OK by this afternoon, encouraging robust thunderstorm development by 20-21Z. This activity will likely form along or just east of a weak surface low and attendant dryline that will be present over the eastern TX Panhandle and northwest TX. The primary limiting factor for the severe threat across this region still appears to be rather modest low-level moisture, with latest surface observations showing low to mid 50s surface dewpoints confined well south to parts of central/south TX. Even so, there is a chance for modest moistening though this afternoon, as ongoing elevated precipitation may help saturate low/mid levels to some extent. Mid-level lapse rates are also expected to quickly steepen through the day as the upper low moves eastward, and as cold mid-level temperatures gradually overspread the narrow warm sector. There may be a small/mesoscale corridor of greater severe threat this afternoon/early evening across southwest OK/western north TX and vicinity, where greater low-level heating appears possible behind the morning activity, and where somewhat better low-level moisture and related instability should be present. Current expectations are for the afternoon/early evening convection to pose a threat for mainly large hail and severe/damaging winds, as favorable lapse rates aloft and sufficient deep-layer shear support supercell structures initially. But, there is some veer-back-veer signal in the 2-5 km layer from various NAM/RAP forecast soundings, and convection may grow into a small bowing cluster fairly quickly (as shown by several HREF members). The severe threat will likely be limited in space and time by the narrow/small warm sector, with a more isolated/limited severe threat with eastward extent into central OK and north-central TX this evening due to weaker instability. Finally, the tornado potential remains a bit unclear, as low-level moisture will be quite limited. Still, a small zone of sufficient 0-3 km CAPE and ambient boundary-layer vorticity along the northward-developing warm front may support a couple of tornadoes given otherwise favorable low-level shear. Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0155 PM CST Sun Mar 02 2025 Valid 022000Z - 031200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE EASTERN TEXAS PANHANDLE INTO SOUTHWESTERN OKLAHOMA AND WESTERN NORTH TEXAS... ...SUMMARY... Isolated severe thunderstorms appear possible from the eastern Texas Panhandle into western Oklahoma and western north Texas this afternoon and early evening. Large hail and severe wind gusts should be the main threats, but a couple of tornadoes are also possible. ...20z Update... The latest surface analysis and satellite imagery show an arc of low-topped convection developing along a convergent dryline within the clear slot of the strong upper low ejecting eastward over the southern Plains. Recent surface obs show moisture increasing into the low to mid 50s F from roughly Childress, TX eastward into far southwestern OK and south to Interstate 20. Roughly 250-500 J/kg of MUCAPE is expected within a confined warm sector from the southeastern TX panhandle to the Red River vicinity of western north TX and southwest OK. Despite limited surface moisture, convection should intensify and strong veering wind profiles may support a few supercells. Steep low and mid-level lapse rates will favor a risk for damaging gusts and hail with the more robust storms. Large low-level buoyancy (0-3km MUCAPE of 75-150 J/kg), ample vertical vorticity and strong shear could also support a couple of tornadoes. Contingent upon storms remaining semi discrete, this may occur within a localized corridor near the surface warm front over the southeastern TX Panhandle to far southwest OK and western north TX, where shear and surface moisture are maximized. Have extended the MRGL south where convection is developing along the dryline near I-20. Have also shifted the SLGT southward toward the deeper moisture and stronger buoyancy. See MCD#0121 and the prior outlook for additional details. ..Lyons.. 03/02/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1020 AM CST Sun Mar 02 2025/ ...Southern High Plains... Elevated thunderstorms have developed this morning across parts of the TX Panhandle and northwest TX, as an upper low continues eastward over the southern High Plains. This activity may pose an isolated small hail risk in the short term with weak MUCAPE present, but greater severe potential remains evident later this afternoon and early evening. A very strong (80-100 kt) mid-level westerly jet is present in the base of the mid/upper-level low. Strong large-scale ascent associated with the left exit region of this jet will overspread the TX Panhandle/northwest TX and parts of western OK by this afternoon, encouraging robust thunderstorm development by 20-21Z. This activity will likely form along or just east of a weak surface low and attendant dryline that will be present over the eastern TX Panhandle and northwest TX. The primary limiting factor for the severe threat across this region still appears to be rather modest low-level moisture, with latest surface observations showing low to mid 50s surface dewpoints confined well south to parts of central/south TX. Even so, there is a chance for modest moistening though this afternoon, as ongoing elevated precipitation may help saturate low/mid levels to some extent. Mid-level lapse rates are also expected to quickly steepen through the day as the upper low moves eastward, and as cold mid-level temperatures gradually overspread the narrow warm sector. There may be a small/mesoscale corridor of greater severe threat this afternoon/early evening across southwest OK/western north TX and vicinity, where greater low-level heating appears possible behind the morning activity, and where somewhat better low-level moisture and related instability should be present. Current expectations are for the afternoon/early evening convection to pose a threat for mainly large hail and severe/damaging winds, as favorable lapse rates aloft and sufficient deep-layer shear support supercell structures initially. But, there is some veer-back-veer signal in the 2-5 km layer from various NAM/RAP forecast soundings, and convection may grow into a small bowing cluster fairly quickly (as shown by several HREF members). The severe threat will likely be limited in space and time by the narrow/small warm sector, with a more isolated/limited severe threat with eastward extent into central OK and north-central TX this evening due to weaker instability. Finally, the tornado potential remains a bit unclear, as low-level moisture will be quite limited. Still, a small zone of sufficient 0-3 km CAPE and ambient boundary-layer vorticity along the northward-developing warm front may support a couple of tornadoes given otherwise favorable low-level shear. Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0155 PM CST Sun Mar 02 2025 Valid 022000Z - 031200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE EASTERN TEXAS PANHANDLE INTO SOUTHWESTERN OKLAHOMA AND WESTERN NORTH TEXAS... ...SUMMARY... Isolated severe thunderstorms appear possible from the eastern Texas Panhandle into western Oklahoma and western north Texas this afternoon and early evening. Large hail and severe wind gusts should be the main threats, but a couple of tornadoes are also possible. ...20z Update... The latest surface analysis and satellite imagery show an arc of low-topped convection developing along a convergent dryline within the clear slot of the strong upper low ejecting eastward over the southern Plains. Recent surface obs show moisture increasing into the low to mid 50s F from roughly Childress, TX eastward into far southwestern OK and south to Interstate 20. Roughly 250-500 J/kg of MUCAPE is expected within a confined warm sector from the southeastern TX panhandle to the Red River vicinity of western north TX and southwest OK. Despite limited surface moisture, convection should intensify and strong veering wind profiles may support a few supercells. Steep low and mid-level lapse rates will favor a risk for damaging gusts and hail with the more robust storms. Large low-level buoyancy (0-3km MUCAPE of 75-150 J/kg), ample vertical vorticity and strong shear could also support a couple of tornadoes. Contingent upon storms remaining semi discrete, this may occur within a localized corridor near the surface warm front over the southeastern TX Panhandle to far southwest OK and western north TX, where shear and surface moisture are maximized. Have extended the MRGL south where convection is developing along the dryline near I-20. Have also shifted the SLGT southward toward the deeper moisture and stronger buoyancy. See MCD#0121 and the prior outlook for additional details. ..Lyons.. 03/02/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1020 AM CST Sun Mar 02 2025/ ...Southern High Plains... Elevated thunderstorms have developed this morning across parts of the TX Panhandle and northwest TX, as an upper low continues eastward over the southern High Plains. This activity may pose an isolated small hail risk in the short term with weak MUCAPE present, but greater severe potential remains evident later this afternoon and early evening. A very strong (80-100 kt) mid-level westerly jet is present in the base of the mid/upper-level low. Strong large-scale ascent associated with the left exit region of this jet will overspread the TX Panhandle/northwest TX and parts of western OK by this afternoon, encouraging robust thunderstorm development by 20-21Z. This activity will likely form along or just east of a weak surface low and attendant dryline that will be present over the eastern TX Panhandle and northwest TX. The primary limiting factor for the severe threat across this region still appears to be rather modest low-level moisture, with latest surface observations showing low to mid 50s surface dewpoints confined well south to parts of central/south TX. Even so, there is a chance for modest moistening though this afternoon, as ongoing elevated precipitation may help saturate low/mid levels to some extent. Mid-level lapse rates are also expected to quickly steepen through the day as the upper low moves eastward, and as cold mid-level temperatures gradually overspread the narrow warm sector. There may be a small/mesoscale corridor of greater severe threat this afternoon/early evening across southwest OK/western north TX and vicinity, where greater low-level heating appears possible behind the morning activity, and where somewhat better low-level moisture and related instability should be present. Current expectations are for the afternoon/early evening convection to pose a threat for mainly large hail and severe/damaging winds, as favorable lapse rates aloft and sufficient deep-layer shear support supercell structures initially. But, there is some veer-back-veer signal in the 2-5 km layer from various NAM/RAP forecast soundings, and convection may grow into a small bowing cluster fairly quickly (as shown by several HREF members). The severe threat will likely be limited in space and time by the narrow/small warm sector, with a more isolated/limited severe threat with eastward extent into central OK and north-central TX this evening due to weaker instability. Finally, the tornado potential remains a bit unclear, as low-level moisture will be quite limited. Still, a small zone of sufficient 0-3 km CAPE and ambient boundary-layer vorticity along the northward-developing warm front may support a couple of tornadoes given otherwise favorable low-level shear. Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0155 PM CST Sun Mar 02 2025 Valid 022000Z - 031200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE EASTERN TEXAS PANHANDLE INTO SOUTHWESTERN OKLAHOMA AND WESTERN NORTH TEXAS... ...SUMMARY... Isolated severe thunderstorms appear possible from the eastern Texas Panhandle into western Oklahoma and western north Texas this afternoon and early evening. Large hail and severe wind gusts should be the main threats, but a couple of tornadoes are also possible. ...20z Update... The latest surface analysis and satellite imagery show an arc of low-topped convection developing along a convergent dryline within the clear slot of the strong upper low ejecting eastward over the southern Plains. Recent surface obs show moisture increasing into the low to mid 50s F from roughly Childress, TX eastward into far southwestern OK and south to Interstate 20. Roughly 250-500 J/kg of MUCAPE is expected within a confined warm sector from the southeastern TX panhandle to the Red River vicinity of western north TX and southwest OK. Despite limited surface moisture, convection should intensify and strong veering wind profiles may support a few supercells. Steep low and mid-level lapse rates will favor a risk for damaging gusts and hail with the more robust storms. Large low-level buoyancy (0-3km MUCAPE of 75-150 J/kg), ample vertical vorticity and strong shear could also support a couple of tornadoes. Contingent upon storms remaining semi discrete, this may occur within a localized corridor near the surface warm front over the southeastern TX Panhandle to far southwest OK and western north TX, where shear and surface moisture are maximized. Have extended the MRGL south where convection is developing along the dryline near I-20. Have also shifted the SLGT southward toward the deeper moisture and stronger buoyancy. See MCD#0121 and the prior outlook for additional details. ..Lyons.. 03/02/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1020 AM CST Sun Mar 02 2025/ ...Southern High Plains... Elevated thunderstorms have developed this morning across parts of the TX Panhandle and northwest TX, as an upper low continues eastward over the southern High Plains. This activity may pose an isolated small hail risk in the short term with weak MUCAPE present, but greater severe potential remains evident later this afternoon and early evening. A very strong (80-100 kt) mid-level westerly jet is present in the base of the mid/upper-level low. Strong large-scale ascent associated with the left exit region of this jet will overspread the TX Panhandle/northwest TX and parts of western OK by this afternoon, encouraging robust thunderstorm development by 20-21Z. This activity will likely form along or just east of a weak surface low and attendant dryline that will be present over the eastern TX Panhandle and northwest TX. The primary limiting factor for the severe threat across this region still appears to be rather modest low-level moisture, with latest surface observations showing low to mid 50s surface dewpoints confined well south to parts of central/south TX. Even so, there is a chance for modest moistening though this afternoon, as ongoing elevated precipitation may help saturate low/mid levels to some extent. Mid-level lapse rates are also expected to quickly steepen through the day as the upper low moves eastward, and as cold mid-level temperatures gradually overspread the narrow warm sector. There may be a small/mesoscale corridor of greater severe threat this afternoon/early evening across southwest OK/western north TX and vicinity, where greater low-level heating appears possible behind the morning activity, and where somewhat better low-level moisture and related instability should be present. Current expectations are for the afternoon/early evening convection to pose a threat for mainly large hail and severe/damaging winds, as favorable lapse rates aloft and sufficient deep-layer shear support supercell structures initially. But, there is some veer-back-veer signal in the 2-5 km layer from various NAM/RAP forecast soundings, and convection may grow into a small bowing cluster fairly quickly (as shown by several HREF members). The severe threat will likely be limited in space and time by the narrow/small warm sector, with a more isolated/limited severe threat with eastward extent into central OK and north-central TX this evening due to weaker instability. Finally, the tornado potential remains a bit unclear, as low-level moisture will be quite limited. Still, a small zone of sufficient 0-3 km CAPE and ambient boundary-layer vorticity along the northward-developing warm front may support a couple of tornadoes given otherwise favorable low-level shear. Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0155 PM CST Sun Mar 02 2025 Valid 022000Z - 031200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE EASTERN TEXAS PANHANDLE INTO SOUTHWESTERN OKLAHOMA AND WESTERN NORTH TEXAS... ...SUMMARY... Isolated severe thunderstorms appear possible from the eastern Texas Panhandle into western Oklahoma and western north Texas this afternoon and early evening. Large hail and severe wind gusts should be the main threats, but a couple of tornadoes are also possible. ...20z Update... The latest surface analysis and satellite imagery show an arc of low-topped convection developing along a convergent dryline within the clear slot of the strong upper low ejecting eastward over the southern Plains. Recent surface obs show moisture increasing into the low to mid 50s F from roughly Childress, TX eastward into far southwestern OK and south to Interstate 20. Roughly 250-500 J/kg of MUCAPE is expected within a confined warm sector from the southeastern TX panhandle to the Red River vicinity of western north TX and southwest OK. Despite limited surface moisture, convection should intensify and strong veering wind profiles may support a few supercells. Steep low and mid-level lapse rates will favor a risk for damaging gusts and hail with the more robust storms. Large low-level buoyancy (0-3km MUCAPE of 75-150 J/kg), ample vertical vorticity and strong shear could also support a couple of tornadoes. Contingent upon storms remaining semi discrete, this may occur within a localized corridor near the surface warm front over the southeastern TX Panhandle to far southwest OK and western north TX, where shear and surface moisture are maximized. Have extended the MRGL south where convection is developing along the dryline near I-20. Have also shifted the SLGT southward toward the deeper moisture and stronger buoyancy. See MCD#0121 and the prior outlook for additional details. ..Lyons.. 03/02/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1020 AM CST Sun Mar 02 2025/ ...Southern High Plains... Elevated thunderstorms have developed this morning across parts of the TX Panhandle and northwest TX, as an upper low continues eastward over the southern High Plains. This activity may pose an isolated small hail risk in the short term with weak MUCAPE present, but greater severe potential remains evident later this afternoon and early evening. A very strong (80-100 kt) mid-level westerly jet is present in the base of the mid/upper-level low. Strong large-scale ascent associated with the left exit region of this jet will overspread the TX Panhandle/northwest TX and parts of western OK by this afternoon, encouraging robust thunderstorm development by 20-21Z. This activity will likely form along or just east of a weak surface low and attendant dryline that will be present over the eastern TX Panhandle and northwest TX. The primary limiting factor for the severe threat across this region still appears to be rather modest low-level moisture, with latest surface observations showing low to mid 50s surface dewpoints confined well south to parts of central/south TX. Even so, there is a chance for modest moistening though this afternoon, as ongoing elevated precipitation may help saturate low/mid levels to some extent. Mid-level lapse rates are also expected to quickly steepen through the day as the upper low moves eastward, and as cold mid-level temperatures gradually overspread the narrow warm sector. There may be a small/mesoscale corridor of greater severe threat this afternoon/early evening across southwest OK/western north TX and vicinity, where greater low-level heating appears possible behind the morning activity, and where somewhat better low-level moisture and related instability should be present. Current expectations are for the afternoon/early evening convection to pose a threat for mainly large hail and severe/damaging winds, as favorable lapse rates aloft and sufficient deep-layer shear support supercell structures initially. But, there is some veer-back-veer signal in the 2-5 km layer from various NAM/RAP forecast soundings, and convection may grow into a small bowing cluster fairly quickly (as shown by several HREF members). The severe threat will likely be limited in space and time by the narrow/small warm sector, with a more isolated/limited severe threat with eastward extent into central OK and north-central TX this evening due to weaker instability. Finally, the tornado potential remains a bit unclear, as low-level moisture will be quite limited. Still, a small zone of sufficient 0-3 km CAPE and ambient boundary-layer vorticity along the northward-developing warm front may support a couple of tornadoes given otherwise favorable low-level shear. Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0155 PM CST Sun Mar 02 2025 Valid 022000Z - 031200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE EASTERN TEXAS PANHANDLE INTO SOUTHWESTERN OKLAHOMA AND WESTERN NORTH TEXAS... ...SUMMARY... Isolated severe thunderstorms appear possible from the eastern Texas Panhandle into western Oklahoma and western north Texas this afternoon and early evening. Large hail and severe wind gusts should be the main threats, but a couple of tornadoes are also possible. ...20z Update... The latest surface analysis and satellite imagery show an arc of low-topped convection developing along a convergent dryline within the clear slot of the strong upper low ejecting eastward over the southern Plains. Recent surface obs show moisture increasing into the low to mid 50s F from roughly Childress, TX eastward into far southwestern OK and south to Interstate 20. Roughly 250-500 J/kg of MUCAPE is expected within a confined warm sector from the southeastern TX panhandle to the Red River vicinity of western north TX and southwest OK. Despite limited surface moisture, convection should intensify and strong veering wind profiles may support a few supercells. Steep low and mid-level lapse rates will favor a risk for damaging gusts and hail with the more robust storms. Large low-level buoyancy (0-3km MUCAPE of 75-150 J/kg), ample vertical vorticity and strong shear could also support a couple of tornadoes. Contingent upon storms remaining semi discrete, this may occur within a localized corridor near the surface warm front over the southeastern TX Panhandle to far southwest OK and western north TX, where shear and surface moisture are maximized. Have extended the MRGL south where convection is developing along the dryline near I-20. Have also shifted the SLGT southward toward the deeper moisture and stronger buoyancy. See MCD#0121 and the prior outlook for additional details. ..Lyons.. 03/02/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1020 AM CST Sun Mar 02 2025/ ...Southern High Plains... Elevated thunderstorms have developed this morning across parts of the TX Panhandle and northwest TX, as an upper low continues eastward over the southern High Plains. This activity may pose an isolated small hail risk in the short term with weak MUCAPE present, but greater severe potential remains evident later this afternoon and early evening. A very strong (80-100 kt) mid-level westerly jet is present in the base of the mid/upper-level low. Strong large-scale ascent associated with the left exit region of this jet will overspread the TX Panhandle/northwest TX and parts of western OK by this afternoon, encouraging robust thunderstorm development by 20-21Z. This activity will likely form along or just east of a weak surface low and attendant dryline that will be present over the eastern TX Panhandle and northwest TX. The primary limiting factor for the severe threat across this region still appears to be rather modest low-level moisture, with latest surface observations showing low to mid 50s surface dewpoints confined well south to parts of central/south TX. Even so, there is a chance for modest moistening though this afternoon, as ongoing elevated precipitation may help saturate low/mid levels to some extent. Mid-level lapse rates are also expected to quickly steepen through the day as the upper low moves eastward, and as cold mid-level temperatures gradually overspread the narrow warm sector. There may be a small/mesoscale corridor of greater severe threat this afternoon/early evening across southwest OK/western north TX and vicinity, where greater low-level heating appears possible behind the morning activity, and where somewhat better low-level moisture and related instability should be present. Current expectations are for the afternoon/early evening convection to pose a threat for mainly large hail and severe/damaging winds, as favorable lapse rates aloft and sufficient deep-layer shear support supercell structures initially. But, there is some veer-back-veer signal in the 2-5 km layer from various NAM/RAP forecast soundings, and convection may grow into a small bowing cluster fairly quickly (as shown by several HREF members). The severe threat will likely be limited in space and time by the narrow/small warm sector, with a more isolated/limited severe threat with eastward extent into central OK and north-central TX this evening due to weaker instability. Finally, the tornado potential remains a bit unclear, as low-level moisture will be quite limited. Still, a small zone of sufficient 0-3 km CAPE and ambient boundary-layer vorticity along the northward-developing warm front may support a couple of tornadoes given otherwise favorable low-level shear. Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0155 PM CST Sun Mar 02 2025 Valid 022000Z - 031200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE EASTERN TEXAS PANHANDLE INTO SOUTHWESTERN OKLAHOMA AND WESTERN NORTH TEXAS... ...SUMMARY... Isolated severe thunderstorms appear possible from the eastern Texas Panhandle into western Oklahoma and western north Texas this afternoon and early evening. Large hail and severe wind gusts should be the main threats, but a couple of tornadoes are also possible. ...20z Update... The latest surface analysis and satellite imagery show an arc of low-topped convection developing along a convergent dryline within the clear slot of the strong upper low ejecting eastward over the southern Plains. Recent surface obs show moisture increasing into the low to mid 50s F from roughly Childress, TX eastward into far southwestern OK and south to Interstate 20. Roughly 250-500 J/kg of MUCAPE is expected within a confined warm sector from the southeastern TX panhandle to the Red River vicinity of western north TX and southwest OK. Despite limited surface moisture, convection should intensify and strong veering wind profiles may support a few supercells. Steep low and mid-level lapse rates will favor a risk for damaging gusts and hail with the more robust storms. Large low-level buoyancy (0-3km MUCAPE of 75-150 J/kg), ample vertical vorticity and strong shear could also support a couple of tornadoes. Contingent upon storms remaining semi discrete, this may occur within a localized corridor near the surface warm front over the southeastern TX Panhandle to far southwest OK and western north TX, where shear and surface moisture are maximized. Have extended the MRGL south where convection is developing along the dryline near I-20. Have also shifted the SLGT southward toward the deeper moisture and stronger buoyancy. See MCD#0121 and the prior outlook for additional details. ..Lyons.. 03/02/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1020 AM CST Sun Mar 02 2025/ ...Southern High Plains... Elevated thunderstorms have developed this morning across parts of the TX Panhandle and northwest TX, as an upper low continues eastward over the southern High Plains. This activity may pose an isolated small hail risk in the short term with weak MUCAPE present, but greater severe potential remains evident later this afternoon and early evening. A very strong (80-100 kt) mid-level westerly jet is present in the base of the mid/upper-level low. Strong large-scale ascent associated with the left exit region of this jet will overspread the TX Panhandle/northwest TX and parts of western OK by this afternoon, encouraging robust thunderstorm development by 20-21Z. This activity will likely form along or just east of a weak surface low and attendant dryline that will be present over the eastern TX Panhandle and northwest TX. The primary limiting factor for the severe threat across this region still appears to be rather modest low-level moisture, with latest surface observations showing low to mid 50s surface dewpoints confined well south to parts of central/south TX. Even so, there is a chance for modest moistening though this afternoon, as ongoing elevated precipitation may help saturate low/mid levels to some extent. Mid-level lapse rates are also expected to quickly steepen through the day as the upper low moves eastward, and as cold mid-level temperatures gradually overspread the narrow warm sector. There may be a small/mesoscale corridor of greater severe threat this afternoon/early evening across southwest OK/western north TX and vicinity, where greater low-level heating appears possible behind the morning activity, and where somewhat better low-level moisture and related instability should be present. Current expectations are for the afternoon/early evening convection to pose a threat for mainly large hail and severe/damaging winds, as favorable lapse rates aloft and sufficient deep-layer shear support supercell structures initially. But, there is some veer-back-veer signal in the 2-5 km layer from various NAM/RAP forecast soundings, and convection may grow into a small bowing cluster fairly quickly (as shown by several HREF members). The severe threat will likely be limited in space and time by the narrow/small warm sector, with a more isolated/limited severe threat with eastward extent into central OK and north-central TX this evening due to weaker instability. Finally, the tornado potential remains a bit unclear, as low-level moisture will be quite limited. Still, a small zone of sufficient 0-3 km CAPE and ambient boundary-layer vorticity along the northward-developing warm front may support a couple of tornadoes given otherwise favorable low-level shear. Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0155 PM CST Sun Mar 02 2025 Valid 022000Z - 031200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE EASTERN TEXAS PANHANDLE INTO SOUTHWESTERN OKLAHOMA AND WESTERN NORTH TEXAS... ...SUMMARY... Isolated severe thunderstorms appear possible from the eastern Texas Panhandle into western Oklahoma and western north Texas this afternoon and early evening. Large hail and severe wind gusts should be the main threats, but a couple of tornadoes are also possible. ...20z Update... The latest surface analysis and satellite imagery show an arc of low-topped convection developing along a convergent dryline within the clear slot of the strong upper low ejecting eastward over the southern Plains. Recent surface obs show moisture increasing into the low to mid 50s F from roughly Childress, TX eastward into far southwestern OK and south to Interstate 20. Roughly 250-500 J/kg of MUCAPE is expected within a confined warm sector from the southeastern TX panhandle to the Red River vicinity of western north TX and southwest OK. Despite limited surface moisture, convection should intensify and strong veering wind profiles may support a few supercells. Steep low and mid-level lapse rates will favor a risk for damaging gusts and hail with the more robust storms. Large low-level buoyancy (0-3km MUCAPE of 75-150 J/kg), ample vertical vorticity and strong shear could also support a couple of tornadoes. Contingent upon storms remaining semi discrete, this may occur within a localized corridor near the surface warm front over the southeastern TX Panhandle to far southwest OK and western north TX, where shear and surface moisture are maximized. Have extended the MRGL south where convection is developing along the dryline near I-20. Have also shifted the SLGT southward toward the deeper moisture and stronger buoyancy. See MCD#0121 and the prior outlook for additional details. ..Lyons.. 03/02/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1020 AM CST Sun Mar 02 2025/ ...Southern High Plains... Elevated thunderstorms have developed this morning across parts of the TX Panhandle and northwest TX, as an upper low continues eastward over the southern High Plains. This activity may pose an isolated small hail risk in the short term with weak MUCAPE present, but greater severe potential remains evident later this afternoon and early evening. A very strong (80-100 kt) mid-level westerly jet is present in the base of the mid/upper-level low. Strong large-scale ascent associated with the left exit region of this jet will overspread the TX Panhandle/northwest TX and parts of western OK by this afternoon, encouraging robust thunderstorm development by 20-21Z. This activity will likely form along or just east of a weak surface low and attendant dryline that will be present over the eastern TX Panhandle and northwest TX. The primary limiting factor for the severe threat across this region still appears to be rather modest low-level moisture, with latest surface observations showing low to mid 50s surface dewpoints confined well south to parts of central/south TX. Even so, there is a chance for modest moistening though this afternoon, as ongoing elevated precipitation may help saturate low/mid levels to some extent. Mid-level lapse rates are also expected to quickly steepen through the day as the upper low moves eastward, and as cold mid-level temperatures gradually overspread the narrow warm sector. There may be a small/mesoscale corridor of greater severe threat this afternoon/early evening across southwest OK/western north TX and vicinity, where greater low-level heating appears possible behind the morning activity, and where somewhat better low-level moisture and related instability should be present. Current expectations are for the afternoon/early evening convection to pose a threat for mainly large hail and severe/damaging winds, as favorable lapse rates aloft and sufficient deep-layer shear support supercell structures initially. But, there is some veer-back-veer signal in the 2-5 km layer from various NAM/RAP forecast soundings, and convection may grow into a small bowing cluster fairly quickly (as shown by several HREF members). The severe threat will likely be limited in space and time by the narrow/small warm sector, with a more isolated/limited severe threat with eastward extent into central OK and north-central TX this evening due to weaker instability. Finally, the tornado potential remains a bit unclear, as low-level moisture will be quite limited. Still, a small zone of sufficient 0-3 km CAPE and ambient boundary-layer vorticity along the northward-developing warm front may support a couple of tornadoes given otherwise favorable low-level shear. Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0155 PM CST Sun Mar 02 2025 Valid 022000Z - 031200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE EASTERN TEXAS PANHANDLE INTO SOUTHWESTERN OKLAHOMA AND WESTERN NORTH TEXAS... ...SUMMARY... Isolated severe thunderstorms appear possible from the eastern Texas Panhandle into western Oklahoma and western north Texas this afternoon and early evening. Large hail and severe wind gusts should be the main threats, but a couple of tornadoes are also possible. ...20z Update... The latest surface analysis and satellite imagery show an arc of low-topped convection developing along a convergent dryline within the clear slot of the strong upper low ejecting eastward over the southern Plains. Recent surface obs show moisture increasing into the low to mid 50s F from roughly Childress, TX eastward into far southwestern OK and south to Interstate 20. Roughly 250-500 J/kg of MUCAPE is expected within a confined warm sector from the southeastern TX panhandle to the Red River vicinity of western north TX and southwest OK. Despite limited surface moisture, convection should intensify and strong veering wind profiles may support a few supercells. Steep low and mid-level lapse rates will favor a risk for damaging gusts and hail with the more robust storms. Large low-level buoyancy (0-3km MUCAPE of 75-150 J/kg), ample vertical vorticity and strong shear could also support a couple of tornadoes. Contingent upon storms remaining semi discrete, this may occur within a localized corridor near the surface warm front over the southeastern TX Panhandle to far southwest OK and western north TX, where shear and surface moisture are maximized. Have extended the MRGL south where convection is developing along the dryline near I-20. Have also shifted the SLGT southward toward the deeper moisture and stronger buoyancy. See MCD#0121 and the prior outlook for additional details. ..Lyons.. 03/02/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1020 AM CST Sun Mar 02 2025/ ...Southern High Plains... Elevated thunderstorms have developed this morning across parts of the TX Panhandle and northwest TX, as an upper low continues eastward over the southern High Plains. This activity may pose an isolated small hail risk in the short term with weak MUCAPE present, but greater severe potential remains evident later this afternoon and early evening. A very strong (80-100 kt) mid-level westerly jet is present in the base of the mid/upper-level low. Strong large-scale ascent associated with the left exit region of this jet will overspread the TX Panhandle/northwest TX and parts of western OK by this afternoon, encouraging robust thunderstorm development by 20-21Z. This activity will likely form along or just east of a weak surface low and attendant dryline that will be present over the eastern TX Panhandle and northwest TX. The primary limiting factor for the severe threat across this region still appears to be rather modest low-level moisture, with latest surface observations showing low to mid 50s surface dewpoints confined well south to parts of central/south TX. Even so, there is a chance for modest moistening though this afternoon, as ongoing elevated precipitation may help saturate low/mid levels to some extent. Mid-level lapse rates are also expected to quickly steepen through the day as the upper low moves eastward, and as cold mid-level temperatures gradually overspread the narrow warm sector. There may be a small/mesoscale corridor of greater severe threat this afternoon/early evening across southwest OK/western north TX and vicinity, where greater low-level heating appears possible behind the morning activity, and where somewhat better low-level moisture and related instability should be present. Current expectations are for the afternoon/early evening convection to pose a threat for mainly large hail and severe/damaging winds, as favorable lapse rates aloft and sufficient deep-layer shear support supercell structures initially. But, there is some veer-back-veer signal in the 2-5 km layer from various NAM/RAP forecast soundings, and convection may grow into a small bowing cluster fairly quickly (as shown by several HREF members). The severe threat will likely be limited in space and time by the narrow/small warm sector, with a more isolated/limited severe threat with eastward extent into central OK and north-central TX this evening due to weaker instability. Finally, the tornado potential remains a bit unclear, as low-level moisture will be quite limited. Still, a small zone of sufficient 0-3 km CAPE and ambient boundary-layer vorticity along the northward-developing warm front may support a couple of tornadoes given otherwise favorable low-level shear. Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0155 PM CST Sun Mar 02 2025 Valid 022000Z - 031200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE EASTERN TEXAS PANHANDLE INTO SOUTHWESTERN OKLAHOMA AND WESTERN NORTH TEXAS... ...SUMMARY... Isolated severe thunderstorms appear possible from the eastern Texas Panhandle into western Oklahoma and western north Texas this afternoon and early evening. Large hail and severe wind gusts should be the main threats, but a couple of tornadoes are also possible. ...20z Update... The latest surface analysis and satellite imagery show an arc of low-topped convection developing along a convergent dryline within the clear slot of the strong upper low ejecting eastward over the southern Plains. Recent surface obs show moisture increasing into the low to mid 50s F from roughly Childress, TX eastward into far southwestern OK and south to Interstate 20. Roughly 250-500 J/kg of MUCAPE is expected within a confined warm sector from the southeastern TX panhandle to the Red River vicinity of western north TX and southwest OK. Despite limited surface moisture, convection should intensify and strong veering wind profiles may support a few supercells. Steep low and mid-level lapse rates will favor a risk for damaging gusts and hail with the more robust storms. Large low-level buoyancy (0-3km MUCAPE of 75-150 J/kg), ample vertical vorticity and strong shear could also support a couple of tornadoes. Contingent upon storms remaining semi discrete, this may occur within a localized corridor near the surface warm front over the southeastern TX Panhandle to far southwest OK and western north TX, where shear and surface moisture are maximized. Have extended the MRGL south where convection is developing along the dryline near I-20. Have also shifted the SLGT southward toward the deeper moisture and stronger buoyancy. See MCD#0121 and the prior outlook for additional details. ..Lyons.. 03/02/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1020 AM CST Sun Mar 02 2025/ ...Southern High Plains... Elevated thunderstorms have developed this morning across parts of the TX Panhandle and northwest TX, as an upper low continues eastward over the southern High Plains. This activity may pose an isolated small hail risk in the short term with weak MUCAPE present, but greater severe potential remains evident later this afternoon and early evening. A very strong (80-100 kt) mid-level westerly jet is present in the base of the mid/upper-level low. Strong large-scale ascent associated with the left exit region of this jet will overspread the TX Panhandle/northwest TX and parts of western OK by this afternoon, encouraging robust thunderstorm development by 20-21Z. This activity will likely form along or just east of a weak surface low and attendant dryline that will be present over the eastern TX Panhandle and northwest TX. The primary limiting factor for the severe threat across this region still appears to be rather modest low-level moisture, with latest surface observations showing low to mid 50s surface dewpoints confined well south to parts of central/south TX. Even so, there is a chance for modest moistening though this afternoon, as ongoing elevated precipitation may help saturate low/mid levels to some extent. Mid-level lapse rates are also expected to quickly steepen through the day as the upper low moves eastward, and as cold mid-level temperatures gradually overspread the narrow warm sector. There may be a small/mesoscale corridor of greater severe threat this afternoon/early evening across southwest OK/western north TX and vicinity, where greater low-level heating appears possible behind the morning activity, and where somewhat better low-level moisture and related instability should be present. Current expectations are for the afternoon/early evening convection to pose a threat for mainly large hail and severe/damaging winds, as favorable lapse rates aloft and sufficient deep-layer shear support supercell structures initially. But, there is some veer-back-veer signal in the 2-5 km layer from various NAM/RAP forecast soundings, and convection may grow into a small bowing cluster fairly quickly (as shown by several HREF members). The severe threat will likely be limited in space and time by the narrow/small warm sector, with a more isolated/limited severe threat with eastward extent into central OK and north-central TX this evening due to weaker instability. Finally, the tornado potential remains a bit unclear, as low-level moisture will be quite limited. Still, a small zone of sufficient 0-3 km CAPE and ambient boundary-layer vorticity along the northward-developing warm front may support a couple of tornadoes given otherwise favorable low-level shear. Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0155 PM CST Sun Mar 02 2025 Valid 022000Z - 031200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE EASTERN TEXAS PANHANDLE INTO SOUTHWESTERN OKLAHOMA AND WESTERN NORTH TEXAS... ...SUMMARY... Isolated severe thunderstorms appear possible from the eastern Texas Panhandle into western Oklahoma and western north Texas this afternoon and early evening. Large hail and severe wind gusts should be the main threats, but a couple of tornadoes are also possible. ...20z Update... The latest surface analysis and satellite imagery show an arc of low-topped convection developing along a convergent dryline within the clear slot of the strong upper low ejecting eastward over the southern Plains. Recent surface obs show moisture increasing into the low to mid 50s F from roughly Childress, TX eastward into far southwestern OK and south to Interstate 20. Roughly 250-500 J/kg of MUCAPE is expected within a confined warm sector from the southeastern TX panhandle to the Red River vicinity of western north TX and southwest OK. Despite limited surface moisture, convection should intensify and strong veering wind profiles may support a few supercells. Steep low and mid-level lapse rates will favor a risk for damaging gusts and hail with the more robust storms. Large low-level buoyancy (0-3km MUCAPE of 75-150 J/kg), ample vertical vorticity and strong shear could also support a couple of tornadoes. Contingent upon storms remaining semi discrete, this may occur within a localized corridor near the surface warm front over the southeastern TX Panhandle to far southwest OK and western north TX, where shear and surface moisture are maximized. Have extended the MRGL south where convection is developing along the dryline near I-20. Have also shifted the SLGT southward toward the deeper moisture and stronger buoyancy. See MCD#0121 and the prior outlook for additional details. ..Lyons.. 03/02/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1020 AM CST Sun Mar 02 2025/ ...Southern High Plains... Elevated thunderstorms have developed this morning across parts of the TX Panhandle and northwest TX, as an upper low continues eastward over the southern High Plains. This activity may pose an isolated small hail risk in the short term with weak MUCAPE present, but greater severe potential remains evident later this afternoon and early evening. A very strong (80-100 kt) mid-level westerly jet is present in the base of the mid/upper-level low. Strong large-scale ascent associated with the left exit region of this jet will overspread the TX Panhandle/northwest TX and parts of western OK by this afternoon, encouraging robust thunderstorm development by 20-21Z. This activity will likely form along or just east of a weak surface low and attendant dryline that will be present over the eastern TX Panhandle and northwest TX. The primary limiting factor for the severe threat across this region still appears to be rather modest low-level moisture, with latest surface observations showing low to mid 50s surface dewpoints confined well south to parts of central/south TX. Even so, there is a chance for modest moistening though this afternoon, as ongoing elevated precipitation may help saturate low/mid levels to some extent. Mid-level lapse rates are also expected to quickly steepen through the day as the upper low moves eastward, and as cold mid-level temperatures gradually overspread the narrow warm sector. There may be a small/mesoscale corridor of greater severe threat this afternoon/early evening across southwest OK/western north TX and vicinity, where greater low-level heating appears possible behind the morning activity, and where somewhat better low-level moisture and related instability should be present. Current expectations are for the afternoon/early evening convection to pose a threat for mainly large hail and severe/damaging winds, as favorable lapse rates aloft and sufficient deep-layer shear support supercell structures initially. But, there is some veer-back-veer signal in the 2-5 km layer from various NAM/RAP forecast soundings, and convection may grow into a small bowing cluster fairly quickly (as shown by several HREF members). The severe threat will likely be limited in space and time by the narrow/small warm sector, with a more isolated/limited severe threat with eastward extent into central OK and north-central TX this evening due to weaker instability. Finally, the tornado potential remains a bit unclear, as low-level moisture will be quite limited. Still, a small zone of sufficient 0-3 km CAPE and ambient boundary-layer vorticity along the northward-developing warm front may support a couple of tornadoes given otherwise favorable low-level shear. Read more