Severe Storms

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1130 AM CST Sun Mar 02 2025 Valid 031200Z - 041200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR PARTS OF CENTRAL/EASTERN OKLAHOMA INTO NORTH TEXAS... ...SUMMARY... A rapidly developing line of thunderstorms will bring the potential for damaging winds, a few tornadoes, and isolated large hail for parts of the southern Plains Monday night. ...Synopsis... Shortwave, upper-level ridging across the southern Plains will give way to a strong upper trough progressing eastward through the Southwest on Monday. The strongest mid-level height falls are expected to occur during the late evening/overnight period into Tuesday morning. As this trough approaches, a central High Plains surface low will deepen and evolve southeastward with time. A Pacific front will be the focus for thunderstorm development from central/eastern Kansas into the Hill Country/Central Texas. ...Oklahoma/Texas... A line of thunderstorms is expected to develop along the Pacific front late Monday night as strong mid-level ascent overspreads the region. The highly amplified/meridional mid/upper-level winds will promote a rapid transition to a linear storm mode. Strong deep-layer shear and steep mid-level lapse rates could lead to briefly higher potential for large hail from initial supercells, but the strong signal for a linear storm mode would suggest large hail will likely remain isolated. Strong low-level wind fields are expected along and ahead of this line of activity. With at least low 60s F dewpoints expected in parts central/eastern Oklahoma into North/Central Texas, storms will be near-surface based to surface based and capable of damaging wind gusts. Low-level hodographs will also be enlarged across the warm sector. The exact magnitude of the tornado threat is a bit uncertain given the linear storm mode as well as marginal low-level instability during the overnight. However, the strength of the low-level shear will be sufficient to at least conditionally support a few QLCS tornadoes. The eastern extent of the threat will be limited by decreasing buoyancy into far eastern Oklahoma/Arkansas. The southern edge of the activity also is not clear. However, storms on the southern flank may have a greater potential to produce large hail. Confidence in the location of this activity is too low to increase hail probabilities at this time. ...Eastern Kansas... How far north surface-based storms will occur remains in question. It appears that there is at least marginal potential for strong/damaging surface gusts near the surface low track in southeast Kansas. Isolated large hail is also possible. In northeast Kansas, there is a signal for convection to develop on the nose of the low-level jet in some guidance. These storms would likely be elevated and have limited potential for damaging winds. Steep mid-level lapse rates and adequate deep-layer shear would promote some large hail risk. ..Wendt.. 03/02/2025 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1130 AM CST Sun Mar 02 2025 Valid 031200Z - 041200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR PARTS OF CENTRAL/EASTERN OKLAHOMA INTO NORTH TEXAS... ...SUMMARY... A rapidly developing line of thunderstorms will bring the potential for damaging winds, a few tornadoes, and isolated large hail for parts of the southern Plains Monday night. ...Synopsis... Shortwave, upper-level ridging across the southern Plains will give way to a strong upper trough progressing eastward through the Southwest on Monday. The strongest mid-level height falls are expected to occur during the late evening/overnight period into Tuesday morning. As this trough approaches, a central High Plains surface low will deepen and evolve southeastward with time. A Pacific front will be the focus for thunderstorm development from central/eastern Kansas into the Hill Country/Central Texas. ...Oklahoma/Texas... A line of thunderstorms is expected to develop along the Pacific front late Monday night as strong mid-level ascent overspreads the region. The highly amplified/meridional mid/upper-level winds will promote a rapid transition to a linear storm mode. Strong deep-layer shear and steep mid-level lapse rates could lead to briefly higher potential for large hail from initial supercells, but the strong signal for a linear storm mode would suggest large hail will likely remain isolated. Strong low-level wind fields are expected along and ahead of this line of activity. With at least low 60s F dewpoints expected in parts central/eastern Oklahoma into North/Central Texas, storms will be near-surface based to surface based and capable of damaging wind gusts. Low-level hodographs will also be enlarged across the warm sector. The exact magnitude of the tornado threat is a bit uncertain given the linear storm mode as well as marginal low-level instability during the overnight. However, the strength of the low-level shear will be sufficient to at least conditionally support a few QLCS tornadoes. The eastern extent of the threat will be limited by decreasing buoyancy into far eastern Oklahoma/Arkansas. The southern edge of the activity also is not clear. However, storms on the southern flank may have a greater potential to produce large hail. Confidence in the location of this activity is too low to increase hail probabilities at this time. ...Eastern Kansas... How far north surface-based storms will occur remains in question. It appears that there is at least marginal potential for strong/damaging surface gusts near the surface low track in southeast Kansas. Isolated large hail is also possible. In northeast Kansas, there is a signal for convection to develop on the nose of the low-level jet in some guidance. These storms would likely be elevated and have limited potential for damaging winds. Steep mid-level lapse rates and adequate deep-layer shear would promote some large hail risk. ..Wendt.. 03/02/2025 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1130 AM CST Sun Mar 02 2025 Valid 031200Z - 041200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR PARTS OF CENTRAL/EASTERN OKLAHOMA INTO NORTH TEXAS... ...SUMMARY... A rapidly developing line of thunderstorms will bring the potential for damaging winds, a few tornadoes, and isolated large hail for parts of the southern Plains Monday night. ...Synopsis... Shortwave, upper-level ridging across the southern Plains will give way to a strong upper trough progressing eastward through the Southwest on Monday. The strongest mid-level height falls are expected to occur during the late evening/overnight period into Tuesday morning. As this trough approaches, a central High Plains surface low will deepen and evolve southeastward with time. A Pacific front will be the focus for thunderstorm development from central/eastern Kansas into the Hill Country/Central Texas. ...Oklahoma/Texas... A line of thunderstorms is expected to develop along the Pacific front late Monday night as strong mid-level ascent overspreads the region. The highly amplified/meridional mid/upper-level winds will promote a rapid transition to a linear storm mode. Strong deep-layer shear and steep mid-level lapse rates could lead to briefly higher potential for large hail from initial supercells, but the strong signal for a linear storm mode would suggest large hail will likely remain isolated. Strong low-level wind fields are expected along and ahead of this line of activity. With at least low 60s F dewpoints expected in parts central/eastern Oklahoma into North/Central Texas, storms will be near-surface based to surface based and capable of damaging wind gusts. Low-level hodographs will also be enlarged across the warm sector. The exact magnitude of the tornado threat is a bit uncertain given the linear storm mode as well as marginal low-level instability during the overnight. However, the strength of the low-level shear will be sufficient to at least conditionally support a few QLCS tornadoes. The eastern extent of the threat will be limited by decreasing buoyancy into far eastern Oklahoma/Arkansas. The southern edge of the activity also is not clear. However, storms on the southern flank may have a greater potential to produce large hail. Confidence in the location of this activity is too low to increase hail probabilities at this time. ...Eastern Kansas... How far north surface-based storms will occur remains in question. It appears that there is at least marginal potential for strong/damaging surface gusts near the surface low track in southeast Kansas. Isolated large hail is also possible. In northeast Kansas, there is a signal for convection to develop on the nose of the low-level jet in some guidance. These storms would likely be elevated and have limited potential for damaging winds. Steep mid-level lapse rates and adequate deep-layer shear would promote some large hail risk. ..Wendt.. 03/02/2025 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1130 AM CST Sun Mar 02 2025 Valid 031200Z - 041200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR PARTS OF CENTRAL/EASTERN OKLAHOMA INTO NORTH TEXAS... ...SUMMARY... A rapidly developing line of thunderstorms will bring the potential for damaging winds, a few tornadoes, and isolated large hail for parts of the southern Plains Monday night. ...Synopsis... Shortwave, upper-level ridging across the southern Plains will give way to a strong upper trough progressing eastward through the Southwest on Monday. The strongest mid-level height falls are expected to occur during the late evening/overnight period into Tuesday morning. As this trough approaches, a central High Plains surface low will deepen and evolve southeastward with time. A Pacific front will be the focus for thunderstorm development from central/eastern Kansas into the Hill Country/Central Texas. ...Oklahoma/Texas... A line of thunderstorms is expected to develop along the Pacific front late Monday night as strong mid-level ascent overspreads the region. The highly amplified/meridional mid/upper-level winds will promote a rapid transition to a linear storm mode. Strong deep-layer shear and steep mid-level lapse rates could lead to briefly higher potential for large hail from initial supercells, but the strong signal for a linear storm mode would suggest large hail will likely remain isolated. Strong low-level wind fields are expected along and ahead of this line of activity. With at least low 60s F dewpoints expected in parts central/eastern Oklahoma into North/Central Texas, storms will be near-surface based to surface based and capable of damaging wind gusts. Low-level hodographs will also be enlarged across the warm sector. The exact magnitude of the tornado threat is a bit uncertain given the linear storm mode as well as marginal low-level instability during the overnight. However, the strength of the low-level shear will be sufficient to at least conditionally support a few QLCS tornadoes. The eastern extent of the threat will be limited by decreasing buoyancy into far eastern Oklahoma/Arkansas. The southern edge of the activity also is not clear. However, storms on the southern flank may have a greater potential to produce large hail. Confidence in the location of this activity is too low to increase hail probabilities at this time. ...Eastern Kansas... How far north surface-based storms will occur remains in question. It appears that there is at least marginal potential for strong/damaging surface gusts near the surface low track in southeast Kansas. Isolated large hail is also possible. In northeast Kansas, there is a signal for convection to develop on the nose of the low-level jet in some guidance. These storms would likely be elevated and have limited potential for damaging winds. Steep mid-level lapse rates and adequate deep-layer shear would promote some large hail risk. ..Wendt.. 03/02/2025 Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1031 AM CST Sun Mar 02 2025 Valid 021700Z - 031200Z ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTHEAST NEW MEXICO INTO WESTERN TEXAS... The previous forecast generally remains on track. Minor refinements were made to the northern periphery of the elevated and critical areas across portions of eastern New Mexico, West Texas and the Texas Panhandle. Surface observations indicate northerly winds and cooler temperatures entering this region in association with the developing lee cyclone that is progressing eastward. Farther south, the critical area was expanded into most areas of southwest Texas based on higher confidence, as depicted in the latest high-resolution ensemble guidance, of wind/RH conditions exceeding critical criteria amid receptive fuels. ..Karstens.. 03/02/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0119 AM CST Sun Mar 02 2025/ ...Synopsis... A series of mid-level troughs will traverse the southwest quadrant of the CONUS today, with the lead impulse ejecting into the southern Plains this afternoon. A vertically stacked cyclone with a trailing dryline will progress across the southern High Plains, promoting dry and windy conditions behind the dryline that are capable of supporting rapid wildfire spread. As the dryline surges east across western Texas by afternoon peak heating, 25+ mph sustained westerly surface winds will coincide with 15 percent RH while overspreading dry fine fuels. Thunderstorms (some potentially severe) will initiate along the dryline across the northern Texas Panhandle into Oklahoma, potentially limiting the northeastern most extent of favorable wildfire-spread conditions. While dry thunderstorms are not expected to be the main fire-weather concern, the first few lightning strikes during storm initiation may support fire starts, potentially being further exacerbated by dry/windy conditions from the passing dryline. Please see the latest Day 1 Convective Outlook for more information on the severe thunderstorm threat over parts of the southern Plains. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1031 AM CST Sun Mar 02 2025 Valid 021700Z - 031200Z ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTHEAST NEW MEXICO INTO WESTERN TEXAS... The previous forecast generally remains on track. Minor refinements were made to the northern periphery of the elevated and critical areas across portions of eastern New Mexico, West Texas and the Texas Panhandle. Surface observations indicate northerly winds and cooler temperatures entering this region in association with the developing lee cyclone that is progressing eastward. Farther south, the critical area was expanded into most areas of southwest Texas based on higher confidence, as depicted in the latest high-resolution ensemble guidance, of wind/RH conditions exceeding critical criteria amid receptive fuels. ..Karstens.. 03/02/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0119 AM CST Sun Mar 02 2025/ ...Synopsis... A series of mid-level troughs will traverse the southwest quadrant of the CONUS today, with the lead impulse ejecting into the southern Plains this afternoon. A vertically stacked cyclone with a trailing dryline will progress across the southern High Plains, promoting dry and windy conditions behind the dryline that are capable of supporting rapid wildfire spread. As the dryline surges east across western Texas by afternoon peak heating, 25+ mph sustained westerly surface winds will coincide with 15 percent RH while overspreading dry fine fuels. Thunderstorms (some potentially severe) will initiate along the dryline across the northern Texas Panhandle into Oklahoma, potentially limiting the northeastern most extent of favorable wildfire-spread conditions. While dry thunderstorms are not expected to be the main fire-weather concern, the first few lightning strikes during storm initiation may support fire starts, potentially being further exacerbated by dry/windy conditions from the passing dryline. Please see the latest Day 1 Convective Outlook for more information on the severe thunderstorm threat over parts of the southern Plains. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1031 AM CST Sun Mar 02 2025 Valid 021700Z - 031200Z ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTHEAST NEW MEXICO INTO WESTERN TEXAS... The previous forecast generally remains on track. Minor refinements were made to the northern periphery of the elevated and critical areas across portions of eastern New Mexico, West Texas and the Texas Panhandle. Surface observations indicate northerly winds and cooler temperatures entering this region in association with the developing lee cyclone that is progressing eastward. Farther south, the critical area was expanded into most areas of southwest Texas based on higher confidence, as depicted in the latest high-resolution ensemble guidance, of wind/RH conditions exceeding critical criteria amid receptive fuels. ..Karstens.. 03/02/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0119 AM CST Sun Mar 02 2025/ ...Synopsis... A series of mid-level troughs will traverse the southwest quadrant of the CONUS today, with the lead impulse ejecting into the southern Plains this afternoon. A vertically stacked cyclone with a trailing dryline will progress across the southern High Plains, promoting dry and windy conditions behind the dryline that are capable of supporting rapid wildfire spread. As the dryline surges east across western Texas by afternoon peak heating, 25+ mph sustained westerly surface winds will coincide with 15 percent RH while overspreading dry fine fuels. Thunderstorms (some potentially severe) will initiate along the dryline across the northern Texas Panhandle into Oklahoma, potentially limiting the northeastern most extent of favorable wildfire-spread conditions. While dry thunderstorms are not expected to be the main fire-weather concern, the first few lightning strikes during storm initiation may support fire starts, potentially being further exacerbated by dry/windy conditions from the passing dryline. Please see the latest Day 1 Convective Outlook for more information on the severe thunderstorm threat over parts of the southern Plains. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1031 AM CST Sun Mar 02 2025 Valid 021700Z - 031200Z ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTHEAST NEW MEXICO INTO WESTERN TEXAS... The previous forecast generally remains on track. Minor refinements were made to the northern periphery of the elevated and critical areas across portions of eastern New Mexico, West Texas and the Texas Panhandle. Surface observations indicate northerly winds and cooler temperatures entering this region in association with the developing lee cyclone that is progressing eastward. Farther south, the critical area was expanded into most areas of southwest Texas based on higher confidence, as depicted in the latest high-resolution ensemble guidance, of wind/RH conditions exceeding critical criteria amid receptive fuels. ..Karstens.. 03/02/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0119 AM CST Sun Mar 02 2025/ ...Synopsis... A series of mid-level troughs will traverse the southwest quadrant of the CONUS today, with the lead impulse ejecting into the southern Plains this afternoon. A vertically stacked cyclone with a trailing dryline will progress across the southern High Plains, promoting dry and windy conditions behind the dryline that are capable of supporting rapid wildfire spread. As the dryline surges east across western Texas by afternoon peak heating, 25+ mph sustained westerly surface winds will coincide with 15 percent RH while overspreading dry fine fuels. Thunderstorms (some potentially severe) will initiate along the dryline across the northern Texas Panhandle into Oklahoma, potentially limiting the northeastern most extent of favorable wildfire-spread conditions. While dry thunderstorms are not expected to be the main fire-weather concern, the first few lightning strikes during storm initiation may support fire starts, potentially being further exacerbated by dry/windy conditions from the passing dryline. Please see the latest Day 1 Convective Outlook for more information on the severe thunderstorm threat over parts of the southern Plains. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1031 AM CST Sun Mar 02 2025 Valid 021700Z - 031200Z ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTHEAST NEW MEXICO INTO WESTERN TEXAS... The previous forecast generally remains on track. Minor refinements were made to the northern periphery of the elevated and critical areas across portions of eastern New Mexico, West Texas and the Texas Panhandle. Surface observations indicate northerly winds and cooler temperatures entering this region in association with the developing lee cyclone that is progressing eastward. Farther south, the critical area was expanded into most areas of southwest Texas based on higher confidence, as depicted in the latest high-resolution ensemble guidance, of wind/RH conditions exceeding critical criteria amid receptive fuels. ..Karstens.. 03/02/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0119 AM CST Sun Mar 02 2025/ ...Synopsis... A series of mid-level troughs will traverse the southwest quadrant of the CONUS today, with the lead impulse ejecting into the southern Plains this afternoon. A vertically stacked cyclone with a trailing dryline will progress across the southern High Plains, promoting dry and windy conditions behind the dryline that are capable of supporting rapid wildfire spread. As the dryline surges east across western Texas by afternoon peak heating, 25+ mph sustained westerly surface winds will coincide with 15 percent RH while overspreading dry fine fuels. Thunderstorms (some potentially severe) will initiate along the dryline across the northern Texas Panhandle into Oklahoma, potentially limiting the northeastern most extent of favorable wildfire-spread conditions. While dry thunderstorms are not expected to be the main fire-weather concern, the first few lightning strikes during storm initiation may support fire starts, potentially being further exacerbated by dry/windy conditions from the passing dryline. Please see the latest Day 1 Convective Outlook for more information on the severe thunderstorm threat over parts of the southern Plains. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1031 AM CST Sun Mar 02 2025 Valid 021700Z - 031200Z ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTHEAST NEW MEXICO INTO WESTERN TEXAS... The previous forecast generally remains on track. Minor refinements were made to the northern periphery of the elevated and critical areas across portions of eastern New Mexico, West Texas and the Texas Panhandle. Surface observations indicate northerly winds and cooler temperatures entering this region in association with the developing lee cyclone that is progressing eastward. Farther south, the critical area was expanded into most areas of southwest Texas based on higher confidence, as depicted in the latest high-resolution ensemble guidance, of wind/RH conditions exceeding critical criteria amid receptive fuels. ..Karstens.. 03/02/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0119 AM CST Sun Mar 02 2025/ ...Synopsis... A series of mid-level troughs will traverse the southwest quadrant of the CONUS today, with the lead impulse ejecting into the southern Plains this afternoon. A vertically stacked cyclone with a trailing dryline will progress across the southern High Plains, promoting dry and windy conditions behind the dryline that are capable of supporting rapid wildfire spread. As the dryline surges east across western Texas by afternoon peak heating, 25+ mph sustained westerly surface winds will coincide with 15 percent RH while overspreading dry fine fuels. Thunderstorms (some potentially severe) will initiate along the dryline across the northern Texas Panhandle into Oklahoma, potentially limiting the northeastern most extent of favorable wildfire-spread conditions. While dry thunderstorms are not expected to be the main fire-weather concern, the first few lightning strikes during storm initiation may support fire starts, potentially being further exacerbated by dry/windy conditions from the passing dryline. Please see the latest Day 1 Convective Outlook for more information on the severe thunderstorm threat over parts of the southern Plains. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1031 AM CST Sun Mar 02 2025 Valid 021700Z - 031200Z ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTHEAST NEW MEXICO INTO WESTERN TEXAS... The previous forecast generally remains on track. Minor refinements were made to the northern periphery of the elevated and critical areas across portions of eastern New Mexico, West Texas and the Texas Panhandle. Surface observations indicate northerly winds and cooler temperatures entering this region in association with the developing lee cyclone that is progressing eastward. Farther south, the critical area was expanded into most areas of southwest Texas based on higher confidence, as depicted in the latest high-resolution ensemble guidance, of wind/RH conditions exceeding critical criteria amid receptive fuels. ..Karstens.. 03/02/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0119 AM CST Sun Mar 02 2025/ ...Synopsis... A series of mid-level troughs will traverse the southwest quadrant of the CONUS today, with the lead impulse ejecting into the southern Plains this afternoon. A vertically stacked cyclone with a trailing dryline will progress across the southern High Plains, promoting dry and windy conditions behind the dryline that are capable of supporting rapid wildfire spread. As the dryline surges east across western Texas by afternoon peak heating, 25+ mph sustained westerly surface winds will coincide with 15 percent RH while overspreading dry fine fuels. Thunderstorms (some potentially severe) will initiate along the dryline across the northern Texas Panhandle into Oklahoma, potentially limiting the northeastern most extent of favorable wildfire-spread conditions. While dry thunderstorms are not expected to be the main fire-weather concern, the first few lightning strikes during storm initiation may support fire starts, potentially being further exacerbated by dry/windy conditions from the passing dryline. Please see the latest Day 1 Convective Outlook for more information on the severe thunderstorm threat over parts of the southern Plains. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1031 AM CST Sun Mar 02 2025 Valid 021700Z - 031200Z ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTHEAST NEW MEXICO INTO WESTERN TEXAS... The previous forecast generally remains on track. Minor refinements were made to the northern periphery of the elevated and critical areas across portions of eastern New Mexico, West Texas and the Texas Panhandle. Surface observations indicate northerly winds and cooler temperatures entering this region in association with the developing lee cyclone that is progressing eastward. Farther south, the critical area was expanded into most areas of southwest Texas based on higher confidence, as depicted in the latest high-resolution ensemble guidance, of wind/RH conditions exceeding critical criteria amid receptive fuels. ..Karstens.. 03/02/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0119 AM CST Sun Mar 02 2025/ ...Synopsis... A series of mid-level troughs will traverse the southwest quadrant of the CONUS today, with the lead impulse ejecting into the southern Plains this afternoon. A vertically stacked cyclone with a trailing dryline will progress across the southern High Plains, promoting dry and windy conditions behind the dryline that are capable of supporting rapid wildfire spread. As the dryline surges east across western Texas by afternoon peak heating, 25+ mph sustained westerly surface winds will coincide with 15 percent RH while overspreading dry fine fuels. Thunderstorms (some potentially severe) will initiate along the dryline across the northern Texas Panhandle into Oklahoma, potentially limiting the northeastern most extent of favorable wildfire-spread conditions. While dry thunderstorms are not expected to be the main fire-weather concern, the first few lightning strikes during storm initiation may support fire starts, potentially being further exacerbated by dry/windy conditions from the passing dryline. Please see the latest Day 1 Convective Outlook for more information on the severe thunderstorm threat over parts of the southern Plains. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1031 AM CST Sun Mar 02 2025 Valid 021700Z - 031200Z ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTHEAST NEW MEXICO INTO WESTERN TEXAS... The previous forecast generally remains on track. Minor refinements were made to the northern periphery of the elevated and critical areas across portions of eastern New Mexico, West Texas and the Texas Panhandle. Surface observations indicate northerly winds and cooler temperatures entering this region in association with the developing lee cyclone that is progressing eastward. Farther south, the critical area was expanded into most areas of southwest Texas based on higher confidence, as depicted in the latest high-resolution ensemble guidance, of wind/RH conditions exceeding critical criteria amid receptive fuels. ..Karstens.. 03/02/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0119 AM CST Sun Mar 02 2025/ ...Synopsis... A series of mid-level troughs will traverse the southwest quadrant of the CONUS today, with the lead impulse ejecting into the southern Plains this afternoon. A vertically stacked cyclone with a trailing dryline will progress across the southern High Plains, promoting dry and windy conditions behind the dryline that are capable of supporting rapid wildfire spread. As the dryline surges east across western Texas by afternoon peak heating, 25+ mph sustained westerly surface winds will coincide with 15 percent RH while overspreading dry fine fuels. Thunderstorms (some potentially severe) will initiate along the dryline across the northern Texas Panhandle into Oklahoma, potentially limiting the northeastern most extent of favorable wildfire-spread conditions. While dry thunderstorms are not expected to be the main fire-weather concern, the first few lightning strikes during storm initiation may support fire starts, potentially being further exacerbated by dry/windy conditions from the passing dryline. Please see the latest Day 1 Convective Outlook for more information on the severe thunderstorm threat over parts of the southern Plains. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1031 AM CST Sun Mar 02 2025 Valid 021700Z - 031200Z ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTHEAST NEW MEXICO INTO WESTERN TEXAS... The previous forecast generally remains on track. Minor refinements were made to the northern periphery of the elevated and critical areas across portions of eastern New Mexico, West Texas and the Texas Panhandle. Surface observations indicate northerly winds and cooler temperatures entering this region in association with the developing lee cyclone that is progressing eastward. Farther south, the critical area was expanded into most areas of southwest Texas based on higher confidence, as depicted in the latest high-resolution ensemble guidance, of wind/RH conditions exceeding critical criteria amid receptive fuels. ..Karstens.. 03/02/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0119 AM CST Sun Mar 02 2025/ ...Synopsis... A series of mid-level troughs will traverse the southwest quadrant of the CONUS today, with the lead impulse ejecting into the southern Plains this afternoon. A vertically stacked cyclone with a trailing dryline will progress across the southern High Plains, promoting dry and windy conditions behind the dryline that are capable of supporting rapid wildfire spread. As the dryline surges east across western Texas by afternoon peak heating, 25+ mph sustained westerly surface winds will coincide with 15 percent RH while overspreading dry fine fuels. Thunderstorms (some potentially severe) will initiate along the dryline across the northern Texas Panhandle into Oklahoma, potentially limiting the northeastern most extent of favorable wildfire-spread conditions. While dry thunderstorms are not expected to be the main fire-weather concern, the first few lightning strikes during storm initiation may support fire starts, potentially being further exacerbated by dry/windy conditions from the passing dryline. Please see the latest Day 1 Convective Outlook for more information on the severe thunderstorm threat over parts of the southern Plains. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1020 AM CST Sun Mar 02 2025 Valid 021630Z - 031200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE EASTERN TEXAS PANHANDLE INTO WESTERN OKLAHOMA AND WESTERN NORTH TEXAS... ...SUMMARY... Isolated severe thunderstorms appear possible from the eastern Texas Panhandle into western Oklahoma and western north Texas this afternoon and early evening. Large hail and severe wind gusts should be the main threats, but a couple of tornadoes may also occur. ...Southern High Plains... Elevated thunderstorms have developed this morning across parts of the TX Panhandle and northwest TX, as an upper low continues eastward over the southern High Plains. This activity may pose an isolated small hail risk in the short term with weak MUCAPE present, but greater severe potential remains evident later this afternoon and early evening. A very strong (80-100 kt) mid-level westerly jet is present in the base of the mid/upper-level low. Strong large-scale ascent associated with the left exit region of this jet will overspread the TX Panhandle/northwest TX and parts of western OK by this afternoon, encouraging robust thunderstorm development by 20-21Z. This activity will likely form along or just east of a weak surface low and attendant dryline that will be present over the eastern TX Panhandle and northwest TX. The primary limiting factor for the severe threat across this region still appears to be rather modest low-level moisture, with latest surface observations showing low to mid 50s surface dewpoints confined well south to parts of central/south TX. Even so, there is a chance for modest moistening though this afternoon, as ongoing elevated precipitation may help saturate low/mid levels to some extent. Mid-level lapse rates are also expected to quickly steepen through the day as the upper low moves eastward, and as cold mid-level temperatures gradually overspread the narrow warm sector. There may be a small/mesoscale corridor of greater severe threat this afternoon/early evening across southwest OK/western north TX and vicinity, where greater low-level heating appears possible behind the morning activity, and where somewhat better low-level moisture and related instability should be present. Current expectations are for the afternoon/early evening convection to pose a threat for mainly large hail and severe/damaging winds, as favorable lapse rates aloft and sufficient deep-layer shear support supercell structures initially. But, there is some veer-back-veer signal in the 2-5 km layer from various NAM/RAP forecast soundings, and convection may grow into a small bowing cluster fairly quickly (as shown by several HREF members). The severe threat will likely be limited in space and time by the narrow/small warm sector, with a more isolated/limited severe threat with eastward extent into central OK and north-central TX this evening due to weaker instability. Finally, the tornado potential remains a bit unclear, as low-level moisture will be quite limited. Still, a small zone of sufficient 0-3 km CAPE and ambient boundary-layer vorticity along the northward-developing warm front may support a couple of tornadoes given otherwise favorable low-level shear. ..Gleason/Thornton.. 03/02/2025 Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1020 AM CST Sun Mar 02 2025 Valid 021630Z - 031200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE EASTERN TEXAS PANHANDLE INTO WESTERN OKLAHOMA AND WESTERN NORTH TEXAS... ...SUMMARY... Isolated severe thunderstorms appear possible from the eastern Texas Panhandle into western Oklahoma and western north Texas this afternoon and early evening. Large hail and severe wind gusts should be the main threats, but a couple of tornadoes may also occur. ...Southern High Plains... Elevated thunderstorms have developed this morning across parts of the TX Panhandle and northwest TX, as an upper low continues eastward over the southern High Plains. This activity may pose an isolated small hail risk in the short term with weak MUCAPE present, but greater severe potential remains evident later this afternoon and early evening. A very strong (80-100 kt) mid-level westerly jet is present in the base of the mid/upper-level low. Strong large-scale ascent associated with the left exit region of this jet will overspread the TX Panhandle/northwest TX and parts of western OK by this afternoon, encouraging robust thunderstorm development by 20-21Z. This activity will likely form along or just east of a weak surface low and attendant dryline that will be present over the eastern TX Panhandle and northwest TX. The primary limiting factor for the severe threat across this region still appears to be rather modest low-level moisture, with latest surface observations showing low to mid 50s surface dewpoints confined well south to parts of central/south TX. Even so, there is a chance for modest moistening though this afternoon, as ongoing elevated precipitation may help saturate low/mid levels to some extent. Mid-level lapse rates are also expected to quickly steepen through the day as the upper low moves eastward, and as cold mid-level temperatures gradually overspread the narrow warm sector. There may be a small/mesoscale corridor of greater severe threat this afternoon/early evening across southwest OK/western north TX and vicinity, where greater low-level heating appears possible behind the morning activity, and where somewhat better low-level moisture and related instability should be present. Current expectations are for the afternoon/early evening convection to pose a threat for mainly large hail and severe/damaging winds, as favorable lapse rates aloft and sufficient deep-layer shear support supercell structures initially. But, there is some veer-back-veer signal in the 2-5 km layer from various NAM/RAP forecast soundings, and convection may grow into a small bowing cluster fairly quickly (as shown by several HREF members). The severe threat will likely be limited in space and time by the narrow/small warm sector, with a more isolated/limited severe threat with eastward extent into central OK and north-central TX this evening due to weaker instability. Finally, the tornado potential remains a bit unclear, as low-level moisture will be quite limited. Still, a small zone of sufficient 0-3 km CAPE and ambient boundary-layer vorticity along the northward-developing warm front may support a couple of tornadoes given otherwise favorable low-level shear. ..Gleason/Thornton.. 03/02/2025 Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1020 AM CST Sun Mar 02 2025 Valid 021630Z - 031200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE EASTERN TEXAS PANHANDLE INTO WESTERN OKLAHOMA AND WESTERN NORTH TEXAS... ...SUMMARY... Isolated severe thunderstorms appear possible from the eastern Texas Panhandle into western Oklahoma and western north Texas this afternoon and early evening. Large hail and severe wind gusts should be the main threats, but a couple of tornadoes may also occur. ...Southern High Plains... Elevated thunderstorms have developed this morning across parts of the TX Panhandle and northwest TX, as an upper low continues eastward over the southern High Plains. This activity may pose an isolated small hail risk in the short term with weak MUCAPE present, but greater severe potential remains evident later this afternoon and early evening. A very strong (80-100 kt) mid-level westerly jet is present in the base of the mid/upper-level low. Strong large-scale ascent associated with the left exit region of this jet will overspread the TX Panhandle/northwest TX and parts of western OK by this afternoon, encouraging robust thunderstorm development by 20-21Z. This activity will likely form along or just east of a weak surface low and attendant dryline that will be present over the eastern TX Panhandle and northwest TX. The primary limiting factor for the severe threat across this region still appears to be rather modest low-level moisture, with latest surface observations showing low to mid 50s surface dewpoints confined well south to parts of central/south TX. Even so, there is a chance for modest moistening though this afternoon, as ongoing elevated precipitation may help saturate low/mid levels to some extent. Mid-level lapse rates are also expected to quickly steepen through the day as the upper low moves eastward, and as cold mid-level temperatures gradually overspread the narrow warm sector. There may be a small/mesoscale corridor of greater severe threat this afternoon/early evening across southwest OK/western north TX and vicinity, where greater low-level heating appears possible behind the morning activity, and where somewhat better low-level moisture and related instability should be present. Current expectations are for the afternoon/early evening convection to pose a threat for mainly large hail and severe/damaging winds, as favorable lapse rates aloft and sufficient deep-layer shear support supercell structures initially. But, there is some veer-back-veer signal in the 2-5 km layer from various NAM/RAP forecast soundings, and convection may grow into a small bowing cluster fairly quickly (as shown by several HREF members). The severe threat will likely be limited in space and time by the narrow/small warm sector, with a more isolated/limited severe threat with eastward extent into central OK and north-central TX this evening due to weaker instability. Finally, the tornado potential remains a bit unclear, as low-level moisture will be quite limited. Still, a small zone of sufficient 0-3 km CAPE and ambient boundary-layer vorticity along the northward-developing warm front may support a couple of tornadoes given otherwise favorable low-level shear. ..Gleason/Thornton.. 03/02/2025 Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1020 AM CST Sun Mar 02 2025 Valid 021630Z - 031200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE EASTERN TEXAS PANHANDLE INTO WESTERN OKLAHOMA AND WESTERN NORTH TEXAS... ...SUMMARY... Isolated severe thunderstorms appear possible from the eastern Texas Panhandle into western Oklahoma and western north Texas this afternoon and early evening. Large hail and severe wind gusts should be the main threats, but a couple of tornadoes may also occur. ...Southern High Plains... Elevated thunderstorms have developed this morning across parts of the TX Panhandle and northwest TX, as an upper low continues eastward over the southern High Plains. This activity may pose an isolated small hail risk in the short term with weak MUCAPE present, but greater severe potential remains evident later this afternoon and early evening. A very strong (80-100 kt) mid-level westerly jet is present in the base of the mid/upper-level low. Strong large-scale ascent associated with the left exit region of this jet will overspread the TX Panhandle/northwest TX and parts of western OK by this afternoon, encouraging robust thunderstorm development by 20-21Z. This activity will likely form along or just east of a weak surface low and attendant dryline that will be present over the eastern TX Panhandle and northwest TX. The primary limiting factor for the severe threat across this region still appears to be rather modest low-level moisture, with latest surface observations showing low to mid 50s surface dewpoints confined well south to parts of central/south TX. Even so, there is a chance for modest moistening though this afternoon, as ongoing elevated precipitation may help saturate low/mid levels to some extent. Mid-level lapse rates are also expected to quickly steepen through the day as the upper low moves eastward, and as cold mid-level temperatures gradually overspread the narrow warm sector. There may be a small/mesoscale corridor of greater severe threat this afternoon/early evening across southwest OK/western north TX and vicinity, where greater low-level heating appears possible behind the morning activity, and where somewhat better low-level moisture and related instability should be present. Current expectations are for the afternoon/early evening convection to pose a threat for mainly large hail and severe/damaging winds, as favorable lapse rates aloft and sufficient deep-layer shear support supercell structures initially. But, there is some veer-back-veer signal in the 2-5 km layer from various NAM/RAP forecast soundings, and convection may grow into a small bowing cluster fairly quickly (as shown by several HREF members). The severe threat will likely be limited in space and time by the narrow/small warm sector, with a more isolated/limited severe threat with eastward extent into central OK and north-central TX this evening due to weaker instability. Finally, the tornado potential remains a bit unclear, as low-level moisture will be quite limited. Still, a small zone of sufficient 0-3 km CAPE and ambient boundary-layer vorticity along the northward-developing warm front may support a couple of tornadoes given otherwise favorable low-level shear. ..Gleason/Thornton.. 03/02/2025 Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1020 AM CST Sun Mar 02 2025 Valid 021630Z - 031200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE EASTERN TEXAS PANHANDLE INTO WESTERN OKLAHOMA AND WESTERN NORTH TEXAS... ...SUMMARY... Isolated severe thunderstorms appear possible from the eastern Texas Panhandle into western Oklahoma and western north Texas this afternoon and early evening. Large hail and severe wind gusts should be the main threats, but a couple of tornadoes may also occur. ...Southern High Plains... Elevated thunderstorms have developed this morning across parts of the TX Panhandle and northwest TX, as an upper low continues eastward over the southern High Plains. This activity may pose an isolated small hail risk in the short term with weak MUCAPE present, but greater severe potential remains evident later this afternoon and early evening. A very strong (80-100 kt) mid-level westerly jet is present in the base of the mid/upper-level low. Strong large-scale ascent associated with the left exit region of this jet will overspread the TX Panhandle/northwest TX and parts of western OK by this afternoon, encouraging robust thunderstorm development by 20-21Z. This activity will likely form along or just east of a weak surface low and attendant dryline that will be present over the eastern TX Panhandle and northwest TX. The primary limiting factor for the severe threat across this region still appears to be rather modest low-level moisture, with latest surface observations showing low to mid 50s surface dewpoints confined well south to parts of central/south TX. Even so, there is a chance for modest moistening though this afternoon, as ongoing elevated precipitation may help saturate low/mid levels to some extent. Mid-level lapse rates are also expected to quickly steepen through the day as the upper low moves eastward, and as cold mid-level temperatures gradually overspread the narrow warm sector. There may be a small/mesoscale corridor of greater severe threat this afternoon/early evening across southwest OK/western north TX and vicinity, where greater low-level heating appears possible behind the morning activity, and where somewhat better low-level moisture and related instability should be present. Current expectations are for the afternoon/early evening convection to pose a threat for mainly large hail and severe/damaging winds, as favorable lapse rates aloft and sufficient deep-layer shear support supercell structures initially. But, there is some veer-back-veer signal in the 2-5 km layer from various NAM/RAP forecast soundings, and convection may grow into a small bowing cluster fairly quickly (as shown by several HREF members). The severe threat will likely be limited in space and time by the narrow/small warm sector, with a more isolated/limited severe threat with eastward extent into central OK and north-central TX this evening due to weaker instability. Finally, the tornado potential remains a bit unclear, as low-level moisture will be quite limited. Still, a small zone of sufficient 0-3 km CAPE and ambient boundary-layer vorticity along the northward-developing warm front may support a couple of tornadoes given otherwise favorable low-level shear. ..Gleason/Thornton.. 03/02/2025 Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1020 AM CST Sun Mar 02 2025 Valid 021630Z - 031200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE EASTERN TEXAS PANHANDLE INTO WESTERN OKLAHOMA AND WESTERN NORTH TEXAS... ...SUMMARY... Isolated severe thunderstorms appear possible from the eastern Texas Panhandle into western Oklahoma and western north Texas this afternoon and early evening. Large hail and severe wind gusts should be the main threats, but a couple of tornadoes may also occur. ...Southern High Plains... Elevated thunderstorms have developed this morning across parts of the TX Panhandle and northwest TX, as an upper low continues eastward over the southern High Plains. This activity may pose an isolated small hail risk in the short term with weak MUCAPE present, but greater severe potential remains evident later this afternoon and early evening. A very strong (80-100 kt) mid-level westerly jet is present in the base of the mid/upper-level low. Strong large-scale ascent associated with the left exit region of this jet will overspread the TX Panhandle/northwest TX and parts of western OK by this afternoon, encouraging robust thunderstorm development by 20-21Z. This activity will likely form along or just east of a weak surface low and attendant dryline that will be present over the eastern TX Panhandle and northwest TX. The primary limiting factor for the severe threat across this region still appears to be rather modest low-level moisture, with latest surface observations showing low to mid 50s surface dewpoints confined well south to parts of central/south TX. Even so, there is a chance for modest moistening though this afternoon, as ongoing elevated precipitation may help saturate low/mid levels to some extent. Mid-level lapse rates are also expected to quickly steepen through the day as the upper low moves eastward, and as cold mid-level temperatures gradually overspread the narrow warm sector. There may be a small/mesoscale corridor of greater severe threat this afternoon/early evening across southwest OK/western north TX and vicinity, where greater low-level heating appears possible behind the morning activity, and where somewhat better low-level moisture and related instability should be present. Current expectations are for the afternoon/early evening convection to pose a threat for mainly large hail and severe/damaging winds, as favorable lapse rates aloft and sufficient deep-layer shear support supercell structures initially. But, there is some veer-back-veer signal in the 2-5 km layer from various NAM/RAP forecast soundings, and convection may grow into a small bowing cluster fairly quickly (as shown by several HREF members). The severe threat will likely be limited in space and time by the narrow/small warm sector, with a more isolated/limited severe threat with eastward extent into central OK and north-central TX this evening due to weaker instability. Finally, the tornado potential remains a bit unclear, as low-level moisture will be quite limited. Still, a small zone of sufficient 0-3 km CAPE and ambient boundary-layer vorticity along the northward-developing warm front may support a couple of tornadoes given otherwise favorable low-level shear. ..Gleason/Thornton.. 03/02/2025 Read more