Severe Storms

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0144 PM CST Mon Feb 24 2025 Valid 242000Z - 251200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF SOUTH FLORIDA AND WASHINGTON/OREGON... ...SUMMARY... Scattered storms will be possible across the Florida Keys and into far southern Florida from late this afternoon through the evening. Localized damaging gusts or a brief tornado may occur. Isolated strong wind gusts are also possible from the Oregon Cascades into southeast Washington this evening. ...20z Update... The prior forecast remains valid with only minor changes. The Thunder area was trimmed over northern portions of the FL Peninsula. Widespread cloud cover and ongoing precipitation near a remnant front/outflow boundary should limit destabilization farther north. Over parts of South FL and the Keys south of the front, a low-end risk for isolated damaging gusts or a brief tornado will remain possible through this afternoon. A line of convection along a cold front over the eastern Gulf is forecast to spread eastward with a few rotating/stronger cells possible. However, modest lapse rates/buoyancy and widespread cloud cover will tend to limit updraft intensity and the associated severe risk. ...Northwest... As a strong upper low move onshore over WA/OR, cool mid-level temperatures and weak inland moisture advection may support weak destabilization over parts of the Northwest late this afternoon/evening. A few stronger, low-topped storms may develop along an associated cold front as the upper low moves onshore. An isolated damaging gust will be possible as low and mid-level lapse rates steepen and support strong downdrafts amidst enhanced flow aloft. However, buoyancy will remain very weak and widespread severe storms are not expected. See the previous discussion for more information. ..Lyons.. 02/24/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0951 AM CST Mon Feb 24 2025/ ...South FL... Morning satellite imagery shows a series of shortwave troughs over the Gulf, with an increasing cluster of thunderstorms about 150nm off the west coast of the FL Peninsula. This activity will track east-southeastward through the day and affect south FL by late afternoon and evening. Winds aloft in this area will be sufficient for a few organized/rotating storms, posing some risk of damaging wind gusts or perhaps a tornado. However, considerable cloud cover and dewpoints only in the mid 60s, combined with weak mid-level lapse rates, suggest that updrafts will struggle to attain much intensity. ...WA/OR... The next in a series of strong upper troughs is approaching the coast of WA/OR this morning. The associated cold front will move inland soon, crossing the Cascades and into the Columbia Valley by late afternoon and evening. Model guidance suggests a semi-organized band of showers and thunderstorms may accompany the front. Surface temperatures in the upper 50s to lower 60s will result in steep low-level lapse rates beneath cold temperatures aloft. Forecast soundings indicate strong southwesterly low/mid level winds, combined with sufficient CAPE for a few robust thunderstorms capable of gusty/damaging wind gusts through mid-evening. Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0144 PM CST Mon Feb 24 2025 Valid 242000Z - 251200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF SOUTH FLORIDA AND WASHINGTON/OREGON... ...SUMMARY... Scattered storms will be possible across the Florida Keys and into far southern Florida from late this afternoon through the evening. Localized damaging gusts or a brief tornado may occur. Isolated strong wind gusts are also possible from the Oregon Cascades into southeast Washington this evening. ...20z Update... The prior forecast remains valid with only minor changes. The Thunder area was trimmed over northern portions of the FL Peninsula. Widespread cloud cover and ongoing precipitation near a remnant front/outflow boundary should limit destabilization farther north. Over parts of South FL and the Keys south of the front, a low-end risk for isolated damaging gusts or a brief tornado will remain possible through this afternoon. A line of convection along a cold front over the eastern Gulf is forecast to spread eastward with a few rotating/stronger cells possible. However, modest lapse rates/buoyancy and widespread cloud cover will tend to limit updraft intensity and the associated severe risk. ...Northwest... As a strong upper low move onshore over WA/OR, cool mid-level temperatures and weak inland moisture advection may support weak destabilization over parts of the Northwest late this afternoon/evening. A few stronger, low-topped storms may develop along an associated cold front as the upper low moves onshore. An isolated damaging gust will be possible as low and mid-level lapse rates steepen and support strong downdrafts amidst enhanced flow aloft. However, buoyancy will remain very weak and widespread severe storms are not expected. See the previous discussion for more information. ..Lyons.. 02/24/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0951 AM CST Mon Feb 24 2025/ ...South FL... Morning satellite imagery shows a series of shortwave troughs over the Gulf, with an increasing cluster of thunderstorms about 150nm off the west coast of the FL Peninsula. This activity will track east-southeastward through the day and affect south FL by late afternoon and evening. Winds aloft in this area will be sufficient for a few organized/rotating storms, posing some risk of damaging wind gusts or perhaps a tornado. However, considerable cloud cover and dewpoints only in the mid 60s, combined with weak mid-level lapse rates, suggest that updrafts will struggle to attain much intensity. ...WA/OR... The next in a series of strong upper troughs is approaching the coast of WA/OR this morning. The associated cold front will move inland soon, crossing the Cascades and into the Columbia Valley by late afternoon and evening. Model guidance suggests a semi-organized band of showers and thunderstorms may accompany the front. Surface temperatures in the upper 50s to lower 60s will result in steep low-level lapse rates beneath cold temperatures aloft. Forecast soundings indicate strong southwesterly low/mid level winds, combined with sufficient CAPE for a few robust thunderstorms capable of gusty/damaging wind gusts through mid-evening. Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0144 PM CST Mon Feb 24 2025 Valid 242000Z - 251200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF SOUTH FLORIDA AND WASHINGTON/OREGON... ...SUMMARY... Scattered storms will be possible across the Florida Keys and into far southern Florida from late this afternoon through the evening. Localized damaging gusts or a brief tornado may occur. Isolated strong wind gusts are also possible from the Oregon Cascades into southeast Washington this evening. ...20z Update... The prior forecast remains valid with only minor changes. The Thunder area was trimmed over northern portions of the FL Peninsula. Widespread cloud cover and ongoing precipitation near a remnant front/outflow boundary should limit destabilization farther north. Over parts of South FL and the Keys south of the front, a low-end risk for isolated damaging gusts or a brief tornado will remain possible through this afternoon. A line of convection along a cold front over the eastern Gulf is forecast to spread eastward with a few rotating/stronger cells possible. However, modest lapse rates/buoyancy and widespread cloud cover will tend to limit updraft intensity and the associated severe risk. ...Northwest... As a strong upper low move onshore over WA/OR, cool mid-level temperatures and weak inland moisture advection may support weak destabilization over parts of the Northwest late this afternoon/evening. A few stronger, low-topped storms may develop along an associated cold front as the upper low moves onshore. An isolated damaging gust will be possible as low and mid-level lapse rates steepen and support strong downdrafts amidst enhanced flow aloft. However, buoyancy will remain very weak and widespread severe storms are not expected. See the previous discussion for more information. ..Lyons.. 02/24/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0951 AM CST Mon Feb 24 2025/ ...South FL... Morning satellite imagery shows a series of shortwave troughs over the Gulf, with an increasing cluster of thunderstorms about 150nm off the west coast of the FL Peninsula. This activity will track east-southeastward through the day and affect south FL by late afternoon and evening. Winds aloft in this area will be sufficient for a few organized/rotating storms, posing some risk of damaging wind gusts or perhaps a tornado. However, considerable cloud cover and dewpoints only in the mid 60s, combined with weak mid-level lapse rates, suggest that updrafts will struggle to attain much intensity. ...WA/OR... The next in a series of strong upper troughs is approaching the coast of WA/OR this morning. The associated cold front will move inland soon, crossing the Cascades and into the Columbia Valley by late afternoon and evening. Model guidance suggests a semi-organized band of showers and thunderstorms may accompany the front. Surface temperatures in the upper 50s to lower 60s will result in steep low-level lapse rates beneath cold temperatures aloft. Forecast soundings indicate strong southwesterly low/mid level winds, combined with sufficient CAPE for a few robust thunderstorms capable of gusty/damaging wind gusts through mid-evening. Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0144 PM CST Mon Feb 24 2025 Valid 242000Z - 251200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF SOUTH FLORIDA AND WASHINGTON/OREGON... ...SUMMARY... Scattered storms will be possible across the Florida Keys and into far southern Florida from late this afternoon through the evening. Localized damaging gusts or a brief tornado may occur. Isolated strong wind gusts are also possible from the Oregon Cascades into southeast Washington this evening. ...20z Update... The prior forecast remains valid with only minor changes. The Thunder area was trimmed over northern portions of the FL Peninsula. Widespread cloud cover and ongoing precipitation near a remnant front/outflow boundary should limit destabilization farther north. Over parts of South FL and the Keys south of the front, a low-end risk for isolated damaging gusts or a brief tornado will remain possible through this afternoon. A line of convection along a cold front over the eastern Gulf is forecast to spread eastward with a few rotating/stronger cells possible. However, modest lapse rates/buoyancy and widespread cloud cover will tend to limit updraft intensity and the associated severe risk. ...Northwest... As a strong upper low move onshore over WA/OR, cool mid-level temperatures and weak inland moisture advection may support weak destabilization over parts of the Northwest late this afternoon/evening. A few stronger, low-topped storms may develop along an associated cold front as the upper low moves onshore. An isolated damaging gust will be possible as low and mid-level lapse rates steepen and support strong downdrafts amidst enhanced flow aloft. However, buoyancy will remain very weak and widespread severe storms are not expected. See the previous discussion for more information. ..Lyons.. 02/24/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0951 AM CST Mon Feb 24 2025/ ...South FL... Morning satellite imagery shows a series of shortwave troughs over the Gulf, with an increasing cluster of thunderstorms about 150nm off the west coast of the FL Peninsula. This activity will track east-southeastward through the day and affect south FL by late afternoon and evening. Winds aloft in this area will be sufficient for a few organized/rotating storms, posing some risk of damaging wind gusts or perhaps a tornado. However, considerable cloud cover and dewpoints only in the mid 60s, combined with weak mid-level lapse rates, suggest that updrafts will struggle to attain much intensity. ...WA/OR... The next in a series of strong upper troughs is approaching the coast of WA/OR this morning. The associated cold front will move inland soon, crossing the Cascades and into the Columbia Valley by late afternoon and evening. Model guidance suggests a semi-organized band of showers and thunderstorms may accompany the front. Surface temperatures in the upper 50s to lower 60s will result in steep low-level lapse rates beneath cold temperatures aloft. Forecast soundings indicate strong southwesterly low/mid level winds, combined with sufficient CAPE for a few robust thunderstorms capable of gusty/damaging wind gusts through mid-evening. Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0144 PM CST Mon Feb 24 2025 Valid 242000Z - 251200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF SOUTH FLORIDA AND WASHINGTON/OREGON... ...SUMMARY... Scattered storms will be possible across the Florida Keys and into far southern Florida from late this afternoon through the evening. Localized damaging gusts or a brief tornado may occur. Isolated strong wind gusts are also possible from the Oregon Cascades into southeast Washington this evening. ...20z Update... The prior forecast remains valid with only minor changes. The Thunder area was trimmed over northern portions of the FL Peninsula. Widespread cloud cover and ongoing precipitation near a remnant front/outflow boundary should limit destabilization farther north. Over parts of South FL and the Keys south of the front, a low-end risk for isolated damaging gusts or a brief tornado will remain possible through this afternoon. A line of convection along a cold front over the eastern Gulf is forecast to spread eastward with a few rotating/stronger cells possible. However, modest lapse rates/buoyancy and widespread cloud cover will tend to limit updraft intensity and the associated severe risk. ...Northwest... As a strong upper low move onshore over WA/OR, cool mid-level temperatures and weak inland moisture advection may support weak destabilization over parts of the Northwest late this afternoon/evening. A few stronger, low-topped storms may develop along an associated cold front as the upper low moves onshore. An isolated damaging gust will be possible as low and mid-level lapse rates steepen and support strong downdrafts amidst enhanced flow aloft. However, buoyancy will remain very weak and widespread severe storms are not expected. See the previous discussion for more information. ..Lyons.. 02/24/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0951 AM CST Mon Feb 24 2025/ ...South FL... Morning satellite imagery shows a series of shortwave troughs over the Gulf, with an increasing cluster of thunderstorms about 150nm off the west coast of the FL Peninsula. This activity will track east-southeastward through the day and affect south FL by late afternoon and evening. Winds aloft in this area will be sufficient for a few organized/rotating storms, posing some risk of damaging wind gusts or perhaps a tornado. However, considerable cloud cover and dewpoints only in the mid 60s, combined with weak mid-level lapse rates, suggest that updrafts will struggle to attain much intensity. ...WA/OR... The next in a series of strong upper troughs is approaching the coast of WA/OR this morning. The associated cold front will move inland soon, crossing the Cascades and into the Columbia Valley by late afternoon and evening. Model guidance suggests a semi-organized band of showers and thunderstorms may accompany the front. Surface temperatures in the upper 50s to lower 60s will result in steep low-level lapse rates beneath cold temperatures aloft. Forecast soundings indicate strong southwesterly low/mid level winds, combined with sufficient CAPE for a few robust thunderstorms capable of gusty/damaging wind gusts through mid-evening. Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0144 PM CST Mon Feb 24 2025 Valid 242000Z - 251200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF SOUTH FLORIDA AND WASHINGTON/OREGON... ...SUMMARY... Scattered storms will be possible across the Florida Keys and into far southern Florida from late this afternoon through the evening. Localized damaging gusts or a brief tornado may occur. Isolated strong wind gusts are also possible from the Oregon Cascades into southeast Washington this evening. ...20z Update... The prior forecast remains valid with only minor changes. The Thunder area was trimmed over northern portions of the FL Peninsula. Widespread cloud cover and ongoing precipitation near a remnant front/outflow boundary should limit destabilization farther north. Over parts of South FL and the Keys south of the front, a low-end risk for isolated damaging gusts or a brief tornado will remain possible through this afternoon. A line of convection along a cold front over the eastern Gulf is forecast to spread eastward with a few rotating/stronger cells possible. However, modest lapse rates/buoyancy and widespread cloud cover will tend to limit updraft intensity and the associated severe risk. ...Northwest... As a strong upper low move onshore over WA/OR, cool mid-level temperatures and weak inland moisture advection may support weak destabilization over parts of the Northwest late this afternoon/evening. A few stronger, low-topped storms may develop along an associated cold front as the upper low moves onshore. An isolated damaging gust will be possible as low and mid-level lapse rates steepen and support strong downdrafts amidst enhanced flow aloft. However, buoyancy will remain very weak and widespread severe storms are not expected. See the previous discussion for more information. ..Lyons.. 02/24/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0951 AM CST Mon Feb 24 2025/ ...South FL... Morning satellite imagery shows a series of shortwave troughs over the Gulf, with an increasing cluster of thunderstorms about 150nm off the west coast of the FL Peninsula. This activity will track east-southeastward through the day and affect south FL by late afternoon and evening. Winds aloft in this area will be sufficient for a few organized/rotating storms, posing some risk of damaging wind gusts or perhaps a tornado. However, considerable cloud cover and dewpoints only in the mid 60s, combined with weak mid-level lapse rates, suggest that updrafts will struggle to attain much intensity. ...WA/OR... The next in a series of strong upper troughs is approaching the coast of WA/OR this morning. The associated cold front will move inland soon, crossing the Cascades and into the Columbia Valley by late afternoon and evening. Model guidance suggests a semi-organized band of showers and thunderstorms may accompany the front. Surface temperatures in the upper 50s to lower 60s will result in steep low-level lapse rates beneath cold temperatures aloft. Forecast soundings indicate strong southwesterly low/mid level winds, combined with sufficient CAPE for a few robust thunderstorms capable of gusty/damaging wind gusts through mid-evening. Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0144 PM CST Mon Feb 24 2025 Valid 242000Z - 251200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF SOUTH FLORIDA AND WASHINGTON/OREGON... ...SUMMARY... Scattered storms will be possible across the Florida Keys and into far southern Florida from late this afternoon through the evening. Localized damaging gusts or a brief tornado may occur. Isolated strong wind gusts are also possible from the Oregon Cascades into southeast Washington this evening. ...20z Update... The prior forecast remains valid with only minor changes. The Thunder area was trimmed over northern portions of the FL Peninsula. Widespread cloud cover and ongoing precipitation near a remnant front/outflow boundary should limit destabilization farther north. Over parts of South FL and the Keys south of the front, a low-end risk for isolated damaging gusts or a brief tornado will remain possible through this afternoon. A line of convection along a cold front over the eastern Gulf is forecast to spread eastward with a few rotating/stronger cells possible. However, modest lapse rates/buoyancy and widespread cloud cover will tend to limit updraft intensity and the associated severe risk. ...Northwest... As a strong upper low move onshore over WA/OR, cool mid-level temperatures and weak inland moisture advection may support weak destabilization over parts of the Northwest late this afternoon/evening. A few stronger, low-topped storms may develop along an associated cold front as the upper low moves onshore. An isolated damaging gust will be possible as low and mid-level lapse rates steepen and support strong downdrafts amidst enhanced flow aloft. However, buoyancy will remain very weak and widespread severe storms are not expected. See the previous discussion for more information. ..Lyons.. 02/24/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0951 AM CST Mon Feb 24 2025/ ...South FL... Morning satellite imagery shows a series of shortwave troughs over the Gulf, with an increasing cluster of thunderstorms about 150nm off the west coast of the FL Peninsula. This activity will track east-southeastward through the day and affect south FL by late afternoon and evening. Winds aloft in this area will be sufficient for a few organized/rotating storms, posing some risk of damaging wind gusts or perhaps a tornado. However, considerable cloud cover and dewpoints only in the mid 60s, combined with weak mid-level lapse rates, suggest that updrafts will struggle to attain much intensity. ...WA/OR... The next in a series of strong upper troughs is approaching the coast of WA/OR this morning. The associated cold front will move inland soon, crossing the Cascades and into the Columbia Valley by late afternoon and evening. Model guidance suggests a semi-organized band of showers and thunderstorms may accompany the front. Surface temperatures in the upper 50s to lower 60s will result in steep low-level lapse rates beneath cold temperatures aloft. Forecast soundings indicate strong southwesterly low/mid level winds, combined with sufficient CAPE for a few robust thunderstorms capable of gusty/damaging wind gusts through mid-evening. Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0112 PM CST Mon Feb 24 2025 Valid 251200Z - 261200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... No forecast changes are needed. Consideration was given to introducing an Elevated risk area across far southeast WY into the far western NE Panhandle where dry/windy conditions today have likely allowed fine fuels to dry in the absence of a snow pack, and 15-25 mph winds with RH in the 20-30% range are possible for tomorrow. However, model solutions that show this potential - namely the HRRR/RAP, which have a tendency to over mix - have not captured recent observed trends well. This suggests that these solutions may be too aggressive with heating/drying within the downslope flow regime for tomorrow, though trends will continue to be monitored. Localized elevated fire weather conditions appear possible again Tuesday afternoon in the lee of the Sandia Manzano and Sacramento mountains, but should remain too spatially confined to warrant highlights. ..Moore.. 02/24/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0136 AM CST Mon Feb 24 2025/ ...Synopsis... Fire weather concerns are expected to remain low on D2 - Tuesday across the CONUS. The pattern will favor light winds where the driest conditions are expected which will preclude the need to include any highlights. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0112 PM CST Mon Feb 24 2025 Valid 251200Z - 261200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... No forecast changes are needed. Consideration was given to introducing an Elevated risk area across far southeast WY into the far western NE Panhandle where dry/windy conditions today have likely allowed fine fuels to dry in the absence of a snow pack, and 15-25 mph winds with RH in the 20-30% range are possible for tomorrow. However, model solutions that show this potential - namely the HRRR/RAP, which have a tendency to over mix - have not captured recent observed trends well. This suggests that these solutions may be too aggressive with heating/drying within the downslope flow regime for tomorrow, though trends will continue to be monitored. Localized elevated fire weather conditions appear possible again Tuesday afternoon in the lee of the Sandia Manzano and Sacramento mountains, but should remain too spatially confined to warrant highlights. ..Moore.. 02/24/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0136 AM CST Mon Feb 24 2025/ ...Synopsis... Fire weather concerns are expected to remain low on D2 - Tuesday across the CONUS. The pattern will favor light winds where the driest conditions are expected which will preclude the need to include any highlights. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0112 PM CST Mon Feb 24 2025 Valid 251200Z - 261200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... No forecast changes are needed. Consideration was given to introducing an Elevated risk area across far southeast WY into the far western NE Panhandle where dry/windy conditions today have likely allowed fine fuels to dry in the absence of a snow pack, and 15-25 mph winds with RH in the 20-30% range are possible for tomorrow. However, model solutions that show this potential - namely the HRRR/RAP, which have a tendency to over mix - have not captured recent observed trends well. This suggests that these solutions may be too aggressive with heating/drying within the downslope flow regime for tomorrow, though trends will continue to be monitored. Localized elevated fire weather conditions appear possible again Tuesday afternoon in the lee of the Sandia Manzano and Sacramento mountains, but should remain too spatially confined to warrant highlights. ..Moore.. 02/24/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0136 AM CST Mon Feb 24 2025/ ...Synopsis... Fire weather concerns are expected to remain low on D2 - Tuesday across the CONUS. The pattern will favor light winds where the driest conditions are expected which will preclude the need to include any highlights. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0112 PM CST Mon Feb 24 2025 Valid 251200Z - 261200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... No forecast changes are needed. Consideration was given to introducing an Elevated risk area across far southeast WY into the far western NE Panhandle where dry/windy conditions today have likely allowed fine fuels to dry in the absence of a snow pack, and 15-25 mph winds with RH in the 20-30% range are possible for tomorrow. However, model solutions that show this potential - namely the HRRR/RAP, which have a tendency to over mix - have not captured recent observed trends well. This suggests that these solutions may be too aggressive with heating/drying within the downslope flow regime for tomorrow, though trends will continue to be monitored. Localized elevated fire weather conditions appear possible again Tuesday afternoon in the lee of the Sandia Manzano and Sacramento mountains, but should remain too spatially confined to warrant highlights. ..Moore.. 02/24/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0136 AM CST Mon Feb 24 2025/ ...Synopsis... Fire weather concerns are expected to remain low on D2 - Tuesday across the CONUS. The pattern will favor light winds where the driest conditions are expected which will preclude the need to include any highlights. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0112 PM CST Mon Feb 24 2025 Valid 251200Z - 261200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... No forecast changes are needed. Consideration was given to introducing an Elevated risk area across far southeast WY into the far western NE Panhandle where dry/windy conditions today have likely allowed fine fuels to dry in the absence of a snow pack, and 15-25 mph winds with RH in the 20-30% range are possible for tomorrow. However, model solutions that show this potential - namely the HRRR/RAP, which have a tendency to over mix - have not captured recent observed trends well. This suggests that these solutions may be too aggressive with heating/drying within the downslope flow regime for tomorrow, though trends will continue to be monitored. Localized elevated fire weather conditions appear possible again Tuesday afternoon in the lee of the Sandia Manzano and Sacramento mountains, but should remain too spatially confined to warrant highlights. ..Moore.. 02/24/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0136 AM CST Mon Feb 24 2025/ ...Synopsis... Fire weather concerns are expected to remain low on D2 - Tuesday across the CONUS. The pattern will favor light winds where the driest conditions are expected which will preclude the need to include any highlights. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0112 PM CST Mon Feb 24 2025 Valid 251200Z - 261200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... No forecast changes are needed. Consideration was given to introducing an Elevated risk area across far southeast WY into the far western NE Panhandle where dry/windy conditions today have likely allowed fine fuels to dry in the absence of a snow pack, and 15-25 mph winds with RH in the 20-30% range are possible for tomorrow. However, model solutions that show this potential - namely the HRRR/RAP, which have a tendency to over mix - have not captured recent observed trends well. This suggests that these solutions may be too aggressive with heating/drying within the downslope flow regime for tomorrow, though trends will continue to be monitored. Localized elevated fire weather conditions appear possible again Tuesday afternoon in the lee of the Sandia Manzano and Sacramento mountains, but should remain too spatially confined to warrant highlights. ..Moore.. 02/24/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0136 AM CST Mon Feb 24 2025/ ...Synopsis... Fire weather concerns are expected to remain low on D2 - Tuesday across the CONUS. The pattern will favor light winds where the driest conditions are expected which will preclude the need to include any highlights. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0112 PM CST Mon Feb 24 2025 Valid 251200Z - 261200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... No forecast changes are needed. Consideration was given to introducing an Elevated risk area across far southeast WY into the far western NE Panhandle where dry/windy conditions today have likely allowed fine fuels to dry in the absence of a snow pack, and 15-25 mph winds with RH in the 20-30% range are possible for tomorrow. However, model solutions that show this potential - namely the HRRR/RAP, which have a tendency to over mix - have not captured recent observed trends well. This suggests that these solutions may be too aggressive with heating/drying within the downslope flow regime for tomorrow, though trends will continue to be monitored. Localized elevated fire weather conditions appear possible again Tuesday afternoon in the lee of the Sandia Manzano and Sacramento mountains, but should remain too spatially confined to warrant highlights. ..Moore.. 02/24/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0136 AM CST Mon Feb 24 2025/ ...Synopsis... Fire weather concerns are expected to remain low on D2 - Tuesday across the CONUS. The pattern will favor light winds where the driest conditions are expected which will preclude the need to include any highlights. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC 1930Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1254 PM CST Mon Feb 24 2025 Valid 261200Z - 271200Z ...NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... No thunderstorms are expected on Wednesday. ...Synopsis... An elongated trough across the Midwest/Ozarks/central Plains will shift south and east on Wednesday. A cold front will accelerate southeastward in response. Limited moisture along the front will lead to low thunderstorm potential. Farther south, into the Sabine Valley vicinity, moisture return will be greater, but warm mid-level temperatures should prevent thunderstorm development. ..Wendt.. 02/24/2025 Read more

SPC 1930Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1254 PM CST Mon Feb 24 2025 Valid 261200Z - 271200Z ...NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... No thunderstorms are expected on Wednesday. ...Synopsis... An elongated trough across the Midwest/Ozarks/central Plains will shift south and east on Wednesday. A cold front will accelerate southeastward in response. Limited moisture along the front will lead to low thunderstorm potential. Farther south, into the Sabine Valley vicinity, moisture return will be greater, but warm mid-level temperatures should prevent thunderstorm development. ..Wendt.. 02/24/2025 Read more

SPC 1930Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1254 PM CST Mon Feb 24 2025 Valid 261200Z - 271200Z ...NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... No thunderstorms are expected on Wednesday. ...Synopsis... An elongated trough across the Midwest/Ozarks/central Plains will shift south and east on Wednesday. A cold front will accelerate southeastward in response. Limited moisture along the front will lead to low thunderstorm potential. Farther south, into the Sabine Valley vicinity, moisture return will be greater, but warm mid-level temperatures should prevent thunderstorm development. ..Wendt.. 02/24/2025 Read more

SPC 1930Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1254 PM CST Mon Feb 24 2025 Valid 261200Z - 271200Z ...NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... No thunderstorms are expected on Wednesday. ...Synopsis... An elongated trough across the Midwest/Ozarks/central Plains will shift south and east on Wednesday. A cold front will accelerate southeastward in response. Limited moisture along the front will lead to low thunderstorm potential. Farther south, into the Sabine Valley vicinity, moisture return will be greater, but warm mid-level temperatures should prevent thunderstorm development. ..Wendt.. 02/24/2025 Read more

SPC 1930Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1254 PM CST Mon Feb 24 2025 Valid 261200Z - 271200Z ...NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... No thunderstorms are expected on Wednesday. ...Synopsis... An elongated trough across the Midwest/Ozarks/central Plains will shift south and east on Wednesday. A cold front will accelerate southeastward in response. Limited moisture along the front will lead to low thunderstorm potential. Farther south, into the Sabine Valley vicinity, moisture return will be greater, but warm mid-level temperatures should prevent thunderstorm development. ..Wendt.. 02/24/2025 Read more

SPC 1930Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1254 PM CST Mon Feb 24 2025 Valid 261200Z - 271200Z ...NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... No thunderstorms are expected on Wednesday. ...Synopsis... An elongated trough across the Midwest/Ozarks/central Plains will shift south and east on Wednesday. A cold front will accelerate southeastward in response. Limited moisture along the front will lead to low thunderstorm potential. Farther south, into the Sabine Valley vicinity, moisture return will be greater, but warm mid-level temperatures should prevent thunderstorm development. ..Wendt.. 02/24/2025 Read more