Severe Storms

MD 0141 CONCERNING TORNADO WATCH 22... FOR ALABAMA REGION
Mesoscale Discussion 0141 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0821 PM CST Tue Mar 04 2025 Areas affected...Alabama region Concerning...Tornado Watch 22... Valid 050221Z - 050315Z The severe weather threat for Tornado Watch 22 continues. SUMMARY...Squall line with damaging winds will continue to surge east. Some tornado risk continues, but this activity should be limited. DISCUSSION...Well-organized squall line continues in advance of a strong short-wave trough. Impressive ESRH is noted ahead of this MCS with 50kt just off the surface. Given the very strong wind fields, the potential for mixing this stronger flow to the surface remains, and damaging winds are the primary concern as this squall line advances east at roughly 25-30kt. Discrete updrafts have struggled to develop ahead of the line, so a secondary concern, regarding the potential for tornadoes, does exist, but mainly with embedded circulations. ..Darrow.. 03/05/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...BMX...HUN...MOB...LIX... LAT...LON 30198877 32188741 34328704 34228637 32778638 31378686 30028802 30198877 Read more

WW 0022 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 22 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 20 NNW MOB TO 35 WSW SEM TO 25 SSE TCL. ..SPC..03/05/25 ATTN...WFO...BMX...MOB... STATUS REPORT FOR WT 22 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS ALC001-003-013-021-025-035-039-041-047-051-053-065-085-097-099- 101-105-129-131-050340- AL . ALABAMA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE AUTAUGA BALDWIN BUTLER CHILTON CLARKE CONECUH COVINGTON CRENSHAW DALLAS ELMORE ESCAMBIA HALE LOWNDES MOBILE MONROE MONTGOMERY PERRY WASHINGTON WILCOX FLC033-091-113-050340- FL . FLORIDA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE ESCAMBIA OKALOOSA SANTA ROSA GMZ630-631-632-633-634-635-636-650-655-050340- Read more

WW 0022 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 22 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 20 NNW MOB TO 35 WSW SEM TO 25 SSE TCL. ..SPC..03/05/25 ATTN...WFO...BMX...MOB... STATUS REPORT FOR WT 22 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS ALC001-003-013-021-025-035-039-041-047-051-053-065-085-097-099- 101-105-129-131-050340- AL . ALABAMA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE AUTAUGA BALDWIN BUTLER CHILTON CLARKE CONECUH COVINGTON CRENSHAW DALLAS ELMORE ESCAMBIA HALE LOWNDES MOBILE MONROE MONTGOMERY PERRY WASHINGTON WILCOX FLC033-091-113-050340- FL . FLORIDA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE ESCAMBIA OKALOOSA SANTA ROSA GMZ630-631-632-633-634-635-636-650-655-050340- Read more

MD 0139 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE FOR PORTIONS OF CENTRAL INTO NORTHERN ALABAMA
Mesoscale Discussion 0139 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0644 PM CST Tue Mar 04 2025 Areas affected...portions of central into northern Alabama Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible Valid 050044Z - 050215Z Probability of Watch Issuance...60 percent SUMMARY...The threat for strong to potentially severe thunderstorm wind gusts is increasing with the approach of a squall line. A WW issuance is possible pending upward trends in intensity for the northern portions of the squall line and any thunderstorm ahead of the line. DISCUSSION...A convective squall line continues to progress eastward amid very strong synoptic forcing as a surface low continues to intensify over the Midwest. A 500 mb wind maxima is approaching portions of the Southeast from the Lower Mississippi Valley as low-level moisture advection increases ahead of the squall line. Damaging non-thunderstorm wind gusts have already been reported in central AL, indicating that deep-layer synoptic wind fields could easily support severe convective gusts with any efficient downward momentum transport within the approaching squall line. The 00Z BMX sounding depicts a mixed boundary layer extending past 850 mb, with an additional dry layer centered over 700 mb, suggesting that downward mixing from evaporative cooling is quite plausible. Therefore, conditions will continue to be monitored for the need of a Severe Thunderstorm Watch if northern portions of the squall line continues to increase. ..Squitieri/Guyer.. 03/05/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...BMX...HUN... LAT...LON 33098820 34178797 34748696 34508607 33818555 33158542 32878568 32928653 32998731 33098820 Read more

MD 0137 CONCERNING BLIZZARD FOR PORTIONS OF CENTRAL INTO EASTERN NEBRASKA
Mesoscale Discussion 0137 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0506 PM CST Tue Mar 04 2025 Areas affected...portions of central into eastern Nebraska Concerning...Blizzard Valid 042306Z - 050200Z SUMMARY...Blizzard conditions are possible over the next few hours. Moderate to heavy snowfall rates may occur with northwesterly surface winds sustaining over 40 mph, perhaps gusting to 70 mph. Visibility may drop to a quarter mile in spots. DISCUSSION...A surface low along the KS/MO border continues to deepen while shifting towards the Great Lakes, promoting a broad, intense northwesterly surface wind field over parts of the central Plains. Surface observations show northwesterly surface winds sustaining to 40 mph at times over parts of central/eastern NE, where measured gusts have exceeded 65 mph. In tandem with these intense winds are developing snow-bands, as surface-700 mb cold-air advection continues to cool the column to temperatures below freezing. The surface low should continue to intensify through the evening as snowfall rates gradually increase. The current expectation is for blizzard conditions and reduced visibility to gradually become more common through the evening. ..Squitieri.. 03/04/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...FSD...OAX...GID...LBF... LAT...LON 40519989 41779955 42539890 42879786 42699700 42299652 41679647 41099672 40289718 40119787 40089873 40519989 Read more

MD 0138 CONCERNING TORNADO WATCH 21... FOR LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY
Mesoscale Discussion 0138 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0536 PM CST Tue Mar 04 2025 Areas affected...Lower Mississippi Valley Concerning...Tornado Watch 21... Valid 042336Z - 050130Z The severe weather threat for Tornado Watch 21 continues. SUMMARY...Severe threat will spread southeast this evening. Damaging winds can be expected, along with some risk for a few tornadoes. DISCUSSION...Intense mid-level height falls will spread across the mid-Mississippi valley this evening, with lesser, but significant forcing extending south across the lower MS Valley ahead of a strong short-wave trough. Long-lived, organized squall line is propagating southeast ahead of this feature, and currently extends from east-central MS into southeast LA. Higher boundary-layer moisture has struggled to move appreciably inland with mid 60s surface dew points having advanced into Jones County MS, roughly 70 mi north of the Coast. This is about the northern extent of modest buoyancy, and the greatest instability should hold along/near the Gulf Coast much of the evening. Very strong wind profiles continue to favor organized convection and damaging winds are expected with this linear MCS. Until/unless more discrete cells form ahead of the line, any tornado risk should be with embedded supercells. ..Darrow.. 03/04/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...MOB...JAN...LIX... LAT...LON 29749089 32148894 31678825 29459006 29749089 Read more

SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0657 PM CST Tue Mar 04 2025 Valid 050100Z - 051200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE CENTRAL GULF COAST TO SOUTHERN ALABAMA... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms with a threat for damaging winds and a few tornadoes will continue into the evening and overnight hours across portions of the Southeast. ...Southeast... A strongly forcing QLCS will continue to move across portions of southern MS/southeast LA and AL this evening, shifting east into the FL Panhandle and GA overnight. While instability will remain modest, very strong deep-layer flow fields will support robust damaging wind potential. Likewise, strong low-level shear, as evident in regional VWP data indicates potential for a few tornadoes. Tornado potential will mostly be confined the Gulf coast into southern AL where at least some potential for surface-based convection exists amid dewpoints in the low 60s F. Otherwise, strong to damaging gusts will be possible near the QLCS, with diminishing potential with northward extent as instability wanes toward northern AL/TN/KY. ..Leitman.. 03/05/2025 Read more

SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0657 PM CST Tue Mar 04 2025 Valid 050100Z - 051200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE CENTRAL GULF COAST TO SOUTHERN ALABAMA... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms with a threat for damaging winds and a few tornadoes will continue into the evening and overnight hours across portions of the Southeast. ...Southeast... A strongly forcing QLCS will continue to move across portions of southern MS/southeast LA and AL this evening, shifting east into the FL Panhandle and GA overnight. While instability will remain modest, very strong deep-layer flow fields will support robust damaging wind potential. Likewise, strong low-level shear, as evident in regional VWP data indicates potential for a few tornadoes. Tornado potential will mostly be confined the Gulf coast into southern AL where at least some potential for surface-based convection exists amid dewpoints in the low 60s F. Otherwise, strong to damaging gusts will be possible near the QLCS, with diminishing potential with northward extent as instability wanes toward northern AL/TN/KY. ..Leitman.. 03/05/2025 Read more

SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0657 PM CST Tue Mar 04 2025 Valid 050100Z - 051200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE CENTRAL GULF COAST TO SOUTHERN ALABAMA... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms with a threat for damaging winds and a few tornadoes will continue into the evening and overnight hours across portions of the Southeast. ...Southeast... A strongly forcing QLCS will continue to move across portions of southern MS/southeast LA and AL this evening, shifting east into the FL Panhandle and GA overnight. While instability will remain modest, very strong deep-layer flow fields will support robust damaging wind potential. Likewise, strong low-level shear, as evident in regional VWP data indicates potential for a few tornadoes. Tornado potential will mostly be confined the Gulf coast into southern AL where at least some potential for surface-based convection exists amid dewpoints in the low 60s F. Otherwise, strong to damaging gusts will be possible near the QLCS, with diminishing potential with northward extent as instability wanes toward northern AL/TN/KY. ..Leitman.. 03/05/2025 Read more

SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0657 PM CST Tue Mar 04 2025 Valid 050100Z - 051200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE CENTRAL GULF COAST TO SOUTHERN ALABAMA... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms with a threat for damaging winds and a few tornadoes will continue into the evening and overnight hours across portions of the Southeast. ...Southeast... A strongly forcing QLCS will continue to move across portions of southern MS/southeast LA and AL this evening, shifting east into the FL Panhandle and GA overnight. While instability will remain modest, very strong deep-layer flow fields will support robust damaging wind potential. Likewise, strong low-level shear, as evident in regional VWP data indicates potential for a few tornadoes. Tornado potential will mostly be confined the Gulf coast into southern AL where at least some potential for surface-based convection exists amid dewpoints in the low 60s F. Otherwise, strong to damaging gusts will be possible near the QLCS, with diminishing potential with northward extent as instability wanes toward northern AL/TN/KY. ..Leitman.. 03/05/2025 Read more

SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0657 PM CST Tue Mar 04 2025 Valid 050100Z - 051200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE CENTRAL GULF COAST TO SOUTHERN ALABAMA... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms with a threat for damaging winds and a few tornadoes will continue into the evening and overnight hours across portions of the Southeast. ...Southeast... A strongly forcing QLCS will continue to move across portions of southern MS/southeast LA and AL this evening, shifting east into the FL Panhandle and GA overnight. While instability will remain modest, very strong deep-layer flow fields will support robust damaging wind potential. Likewise, strong low-level shear, as evident in regional VWP data indicates potential for a few tornadoes. Tornado potential will mostly be confined the Gulf coast into southern AL where at least some potential for surface-based convection exists amid dewpoints in the low 60s F. Otherwise, strong to damaging gusts will be possible near the QLCS, with diminishing potential with northward extent as instability wanes toward northern AL/TN/KY. ..Leitman.. 03/05/2025 Read more

SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0657 PM CST Tue Mar 04 2025 Valid 050100Z - 051200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE CENTRAL GULF COAST TO SOUTHERN ALABAMA... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms with a threat for damaging winds and a few tornadoes will continue into the evening and overnight hours across portions of the Southeast. ...Southeast... A strongly forcing QLCS will continue to move across portions of southern MS/southeast LA and AL this evening, shifting east into the FL Panhandle and GA overnight. While instability will remain modest, very strong deep-layer flow fields will support robust damaging wind potential. Likewise, strong low-level shear, as evident in regional VWP data indicates potential for a few tornadoes. Tornado potential will mostly be confined the Gulf coast into southern AL where at least some potential for surface-based convection exists amid dewpoints in the low 60s F. Otherwise, strong to damaging gusts will be possible near the QLCS, with diminishing potential with northward extent as instability wanes toward northern AL/TN/KY. ..Leitman.. 03/05/2025 Read more

SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0657 PM CST Tue Mar 04 2025 Valid 050100Z - 051200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE CENTRAL GULF COAST TO SOUTHERN ALABAMA... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms with a threat for damaging winds and a few tornadoes will continue into the evening and overnight hours across portions of the Southeast. ...Southeast... A strongly forcing QLCS will continue to move across portions of southern MS/southeast LA and AL this evening, shifting east into the FL Panhandle and GA overnight. While instability will remain modest, very strong deep-layer flow fields will support robust damaging wind potential. Likewise, strong low-level shear, as evident in regional VWP data indicates potential for a few tornadoes. Tornado potential will mostly be confined the Gulf coast into southern AL where at least some potential for surface-based convection exists amid dewpoints in the low 60s F. Otherwise, strong to damaging gusts will be possible near the QLCS, with diminishing potential with northward extent as instability wanes toward northern AL/TN/KY. ..Leitman.. 03/05/2025 Read more

SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0657 PM CST Tue Mar 04 2025 Valid 050100Z - 051200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE CENTRAL GULF COAST TO SOUTHERN ALABAMA... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms with a threat for damaging winds and a few tornadoes will continue into the evening and overnight hours across portions of the Southeast. ...Southeast... A strongly forcing QLCS will continue to move across portions of southern MS/southeast LA and AL this evening, shifting east into the FL Panhandle and GA overnight. While instability will remain modest, very strong deep-layer flow fields will support robust damaging wind potential. Likewise, strong low-level shear, as evident in regional VWP data indicates potential for a few tornadoes. Tornado potential will mostly be confined the Gulf coast into southern AL where at least some potential for surface-based convection exists amid dewpoints in the low 60s F. Otherwise, strong to damaging gusts will be possible near the QLCS, with diminishing potential with northward extent as instability wanes toward northern AL/TN/KY. ..Leitman.. 03/05/2025 Read more

SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0657 PM CST Tue Mar 04 2025 Valid 050100Z - 051200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE CENTRAL GULF COAST TO SOUTHERN ALABAMA... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms with a threat for damaging winds and a few tornadoes will continue into the evening and overnight hours across portions of the Southeast. ...Southeast... A strongly forcing QLCS will continue to move across portions of southern MS/southeast LA and AL this evening, shifting east into the FL Panhandle and GA overnight. While instability will remain modest, very strong deep-layer flow fields will support robust damaging wind potential. Likewise, strong low-level shear, as evident in regional VWP data indicates potential for a few tornadoes. Tornado potential will mostly be confined the Gulf coast into southern AL where at least some potential for surface-based convection exists amid dewpoints in the low 60s F. Otherwise, strong to damaging gusts will be possible near the QLCS, with diminishing potential with northward extent as instability wanes toward northern AL/TN/KY. ..Leitman.. 03/05/2025 Read more

SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0657 PM CST Tue Mar 04 2025 Valid 050100Z - 051200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE CENTRAL GULF COAST TO SOUTHERN ALABAMA... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms with a threat for damaging winds and a few tornadoes will continue into the evening and overnight hours across portions of the Southeast. ...Southeast... A strongly forcing QLCS will continue to move across portions of southern MS/southeast LA and AL this evening, shifting east into the FL Panhandle and GA overnight. While instability will remain modest, very strong deep-layer flow fields will support robust damaging wind potential. Likewise, strong low-level shear, as evident in regional VWP data indicates potential for a few tornadoes. Tornado potential will mostly be confined the Gulf coast into southern AL where at least some potential for surface-based convection exists amid dewpoints in the low 60s F. Otherwise, strong to damaging gusts will be possible near the QLCS, with diminishing potential with northward extent as instability wanes toward northern AL/TN/KY. ..Leitman.. 03/05/2025 Read more

SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0657 PM CST Tue Mar 04 2025 Valid 050100Z - 051200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE CENTRAL GULF COAST TO SOUTHERN ALABAMA... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms with a threat for damaging winds and a few tornadoes will continue into the evening and overnight hours across portions of the Southeast. ...Southeast... A strongly forcing QLCS will continue to move across portions of southern MS/southeast LA and AL this evening, shifting east into the FL Panhandle and GA overnight. While instability will remain modest, very strong deep-layer flow fields will support robust damaging wind potential. Likewise, strong low-level shear, as evident in regional VWP data indicates potential for a few tornadoes. Tornado potential will mostly be confined the Gulf coast into southern AL where at least some potential for surface-based convection exists amid dewpoints in the low 60s F. Otherwise, strong to damaging gusts will be possible near the QLCS, with diminishing potential with northward extent as instability wanes toward northern AL/TN/KY. ..Leitman.. 03/05/2025 Read more

SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0657 PM CST Tue Mar 04 2025 Valid 050100Z - 051200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE CENTRAL GULF COAST TO SOUTHERN ALABAMA... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms with a threat for damaging winds and a few tornadoes will continue into the evening and overnight hours across portions of the Southeast. ...Southeast... A strongly forcing QLCS will continue to move across portions of southern MS/southeast LA and AL this evening, shifting east into the FL Panhandle and GA overnight. While instability will remain modest, very strong deep-layer flow fields will support robust damaging wind potential. Likewise, strong low-level shear, as evident in regional VWP data indicates potential for a few tornadoes. Tornado potential will mostly be confined the Gulf coast into southern AL where at least some potential for surface-based convection exists amid dewpoints in the low 60s F. Otherwise, strong to damaging gusts will be possible near the QLCS, with diminishing potential with northward extent as instability wanes toward northern AL/TN/KY. ..Leitman.. 03/05/2025 Read more

SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0657 PM CST Tue Mar 04 2025 Valid 050100Z - 051200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE CENTRAL GULF COAST TO SOUTHERN ALABAMA... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms with a threat for damaging winds and a few tornadoes will continue into the evening and overnight hours across portions of the Southeast. ...Southeast... A strongly forcing QLCS will continue to move across portions of southern MS/southeast LA and AL this evening, shifting east into the FL Panhandle and GA overnight. While instability will remain modest, very strong deep-layer flow fields will support robust damaging wind potential. Likewise, strong low-level shear, as evident in regional VWP data indicates potential for a few tornadoes. Tornado potential will mostly be confined the Gulf coast into southern AL where at least some potential for surface-based convection exists amid dewpoints in the low 60s F. Otherwise, strong to damaging gusts will be possible near the QLCS, with diminishing potential with northward extent as instability wanes toward northern AL/TN/KY. ..Leitman.. 03/05/2025 Read more

SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0657 PM CST Tue Mar 04 2025 Valid 050100Z - 051200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE CENTRAL GULF COAST TO SOUTHERN ALABAMA... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms with a threat for damaging winds and a few tornadoes will continue into the evening and overnight hours across portions of the Southeast. ...Southeast... A strongly forcing QLCS will continue to move across portions of southern MS/southeast LA and AL this evening, shifting east into the FL Panhandle and GA overnight. While instability will remain modest, very strong deep-layer flow fields will support robust damaging wind potential. Likewise, strong low-level shear, as evident in regional VWP data indicates potential for a few tornadoes. Tornado potential will mostly be confined the Gulf coast into southern AL where at least some potential for surface-based convection exists amid dewpoints in the low 60s F. Otherwise, strong to damaging gusts will be possible near the QLCS, with diminishing potential with northward extent as instability wanes toward northern AL/TN/KY. ..Leitman.. 03/05/2025 Read more