Severe Storms

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0356 PM CST Mon Mar 03 2025 Valid 051200Z - 111200Z An active weather pattern will continue across the CONUS, resulting in multiple days of potentially enhanced fire-weather conditions later this week across various portions of the Southern Plains and Southwest. ...Southern Plains and Southwest... A highly amplified and progressive mid-level flow pattern is expected to continue over much of the CONUS through the extended forecast period. Shortwave ridging will develop and quickly move eastward over the Southwest D3/Wednesday. To the west of the ridge, a strong trough will move over the Southwest and Southern Plains D4/Thursday and D5/Friday. Several days of very dry and windy conditions are possible over eastern NM and west TX as a lee low deepens over CO. Overlapping with dry fuels, widespread critical fire-weather conditions are likely to end the workweek and into the weekend. Fire-weather concerns may continue into D6/Saturday and D7/Sunday as the main trough moves eastward and a second trough moves in from the west. Strong northwesterly flow is forecast to develop over the southern Plains as a second surface low intensifies. Confidence in sustained critical conditions is lower as the trough trends lower latitude and cooler conditions may develop over the plains. However, the presence of strong winds and dry fuels suggests some fire potential. Fire-weather concerns likely continue into early next week as progressive and amplified mid-level flow persists over the CONUS. Dry condition and strong winds look likely to continue over much of the southern CONUS. ..Lyons.. 03/03/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0356 PM CST Mon Mar 03 2025 Valid 051200Z - 111200Z An active weather pattern will continue across the CONUS, resulting in multiple days of potentially enhanced fire-weather conditions later this week across various portions of the Southern Plains and Southwest. ...Southern Plains and Southwest... A highly amplified and progressive mid-level flow pattern is expected to continue over much of the CONUS through the extended forecast period. Shortwave ridging will develop and quickly move eastward over the Southwest D3/Wednesday. To the west of the ridge, a strong trough will move over the Southwest and Southern Plains D4/Thursday and D5/Friday. Several days of very dry and windy conditions are possible over eastern NM and west TX as a lee low deepens over CO. Overlapping with dry fuels, widespread critical fire-weather conditions are likely to end the workweek and into the weekend. Fire-weather concerns may continue into D6/Saturday and D7/Sunday as the main trough moves eastward and a second trough moves in from the west. Strong northwesterly flow is forecast to develop over the southern Plains as a second surface low intensifies. Confidence in sustained critical conditions is lower as the trough trends lower latitude and cooler conditions may develop over the plains. However, the presence of strong winds and dry fuels suggests some fire potential. Fire-weather concerns likely continue into early next week as progressive and amplified mid-level flow persists over the CONUS. Dry condition and strong winds look likely to continue over much of the southern CONUS. ..Lyons.. 03/03/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0356 PM CST Mon Mar 03 2025 Valid 051200Z - 111200Z An active weather pattern will continue across the CONUS, resulting in multiple days of potentially enhanced fire-weather conditions later this week across various portions of the Southern Plains and Southwest. ...Southern Plains and Southwest... A highly amplified and progressive mid-level flow pattern is expected to continue over much of the CONUS through the extended forecast period. Shortwave ridging will develop and quickly move eastward over the Southwest D3/Wednesday. To the west of the ridge, a strong trough will move over the Southwest and Southern Plains D4/Thursday and D5/Friday. Several days of very dry and windy conditions are possible over eastern NM and west TX as a lee low deepens over CO. Overlapping with dry fuels, widespread critical fire-weather conditions are likely to end the workweek and into the weekend. Fire-weather concerns may continue into D6/Saturday and D7/Sunday as the main trough moves eastward and a second trough moves in from the west. Strong northwesterly flow is forecast to develop over the southern Plains as a second surface low intensifies. Confidence in sustained critical conditions is lower as the trough trends lower latitude and cooler conditions may develop over the plains. However, the presence of strong winds and dry fuels suggests some fire potential. Fire-weather concerns likely continue into early next week as progressive and amplified mid-level flow persists over the CONUS. Dry condition and strong winds look likely to continue over much of the southern CONUS. ..Lyons.. 03/03/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0356 PM CST Mon Mar 03 2025 Valid 051200Z - 111200Z An active weather pattern will continue across the CONUS, resulting in multiple days of potentially enhanced fire-weather conditions later this week across various portions of the Southern Plains and Southwest. ...Southern Plains and Southwest... A highly amplified and progressive mid-level flow pattern is expected to continue over much of the CONUS through the extended forecast period. Shortwave ridging will develop and quickly move eastward over the Southwest D3/Wednesday. To the west of the ridge, a strong trough will move over the Southwest and Southern Plains D4/Thursday and D5/Friday. Several days of very dry and windy conditions are possible over eastern NM and west TX as a lee low deepens over CO. Overlapping with dry fuels, widespread critical fire-weather conditions are likely to end the workweek and into the weekend. Fire-weather concerns may continue into D6/Saturday and D7/Sunday as the main trough moves eastward and a second trough moves in from the west. Strong northwesterly flow is forecast to develop over the southern Plains as a second surface low intensifies. Confidence in sustained critical conditions is lower as the trough trends lower latitude and cooler conditions may develop over the plains. However, the presence of strong winds and dry fuels suggests some fire potential. Fire-weather concerns likely continue into early next week as progressive and amplified mid-level flow persists over the CONUS. Dry condition and strong winds look likely to continue over much of the southern CONUS. ..Lyons.. 03/03/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0356 PM CST Mon Mar 03 2025 Valid 051200Z - 111200Z An active weather pattern will continue across the CONUS, resulting in multiple days of potentially enhanced fire-weather conditions later this week across various portions of the Southern Plains and Southwest. ...Southern Plains and Southwest... A highly amplified and progressive mid-level flow pattern is expected to continue over much of the CONUS through the extended forecast period. Shortwave ridging will develop and quickly move eastward over the Southwest D3/Wednesday. To the west of the ridge, a strong trough will move over the Southwest and Southern Plains D4/Thursday and D5/Friday. Several days of very dry and windy conditions are possible over eastern NM and west TX as a lee low deepens over CO. Overlapping with dry fuels, widespread critical fire-weather conditions are likely to end the workweek and into the weekend. Fire-weather concerns may continue into D6/Saturday and D7/Sunday as the main trough moves eastward and a second trough moves in from the west. Strong northwesterly flow is forecast to develop over the southern Plains as a second surface low intensifies. Confidence in sustained critical conditions is lower as the trough trends lower latitude and cooler conditions may develop over the plains. However, the presence of strong winds and dry fuels suggests some fire potential. Fire-weather concerns likely continue into early next week as progressive and amplified mid-level flow persists over the CONUS. Dry condition and strong winds look likely to continue over much of the southern CONUS. ..Lyons.. 03/03/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0356 PM CST Mon Mar 03 2025 Valid 051200Z - 111200Z An active weather pattern will continue across the CONUS, resulting in multiple days of potentially enhanced fire-weather conditions later this week across various portions of the Southern Plains and Southwest. ...Southern Plains and Southwest... A highly amplified and progressive mid-level flow pattern is expected to continue over much of the CONUS through the extended forecast period. Shortwave ridging will develop and quickly move eastward over the Southwest D3/Wednesday. To the west of the ridge, a strong trough will move over the Southwest and Southern Plains D4/Thursday and D5/Friday. Several days of very dry and windy conditions are possible over eastern NM and west TX as a lee low deepens over CO. Overlapping with dry fuels, widespread critical fire-weather conditions are likely to end the workweek and into the weekend. Fire-weather concerns may continue into D6/Saturday and D7/Sunday as the main trough moves eastward and a second trough moves in from the west. Strong northwesterly flow is forecast to develop over the southern Plains as a second surface low intensifies. Confidence in sustained critical conditions is lower as the trough trends lower latitude and cooler conditions may develop over the plains. However, the presence of strong winds and dry fuels suggests some fire potential. Fire-weather concerns likely continue into early next week as progressive and amplified mid-level flow persists over the CONUS. Dry condition and strong winds look likely to continue over much of the southern CONUS. ..Lyons.. 03/03/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0201 PM CST Mon Mar 03 2025 Valid 032000Z - 041200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF NORTH-CENTRAL TEXAS AND WESTERN/CENTRAL OKLAHOMA... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorms should increase late this evening and merge into a squall line overnight across parts of the southern and central Plains. Several tornadoes, scattered to numerous severe wind gusts, and large hail are all possible. ...20Z Update... The forecast remains on track, and only minor adjustments were made with this update. In particular, the Marginal Risk was expanded northward into southwest IA, where steepening midlevel lapse rates and sufficient deep-layer shear orthogonal to the low-level front could promote an isolated severe hail risk late in the forecast period. Elsewhere, the Marginal and Slight Risk areas were expanded slightly westward over the southern/central Plains, to account for the latest high-resolution guidance depicting slightly earlier convective initiation in an environment favorable for large hail and severe wind gusts. For additional details, see the previous discussion below. ..Weinman.. 03/03/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1032 AM CST Mon Mar 03 2025/ ...Southern/Central Plains... A pronounced upper trough with attendant 80-100 kt mid-level jet will eject eastward from the Great Basin and Southwest across the southern/central High Plains through tonight. As large-scale ascent associated with this system overspreads the High Plains, lee cyclogenesis will occur over eastern CO. This surface low should deepen further late tonight into early Tuesday morning as it develops into western KS, and as a Pacific cold front sweeps east-southeastward over the southern High Plains through the end of the period. Low-level moisture (surface dewpoints generally in the upper 50s to low/mid 60s) over south/central TX this morning will continue to stream northward over the southern/central Plains ahead of the cold front and an eastward-mixing dryline. Current expectations are for a cap to inhibit robust, surface-based thunderstorm development until late this evening, likely after 03Z. Once the large-scale ascent preceding the upper trough and the Pacific cold front begin to intersect with the warm sector, intense thunderstorms should quickly develop over parts of western OK into south-central KS. Steep mid-level lapse rates, cold temperatures aloft, increasing low-level moisture, and strong deep-layer shear will all contribute to an environment conducive for supercells, with an associated threat for large hail initially. A fairly quick transition to a more linear/QLCS mode is expected as the cold front moves quickly east-southeastward overnight across KS/OK and north TX. Ample low-level shear will be present owing to a 45-60 kt south-southwesterly low-level jet, and embedded circulations within the line will likely be capable of producing tornadoes, assuming sufficient boundary-layer instability to support surface-based convection. Even with various NAM/RAP forecast soundings showing near-neutral lapse rates in the boundary layer overnight, the strength of the low-level flow should still be more than enough to support at least scattered severe/damaging winds with the line as it sweeps eastward across the southern/central Plains through the end of the period (early Tuesday morning). Recent surface observations show at least low 60s surface dewpoints into parts of western north TX and the Red River vicinity of southwest OK. This appears to be a little ahead of schedule for some guidance, and with about 12 more hours of low-level moisture return likely ahead of the cold front, concern is increasing that around 63-64F surface dewpoints should be in place across parts of western/central OK into north-central TX by the time convective initiation occurs tonight. An Enhanced Risk for tornadoes and severe/damaging winds has been introduced across parts of this region where confidence in surface-based thunderstorms and the best combination of instability and low-level shear is forecast. Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0201 PM CST Mon Mar 03 2025 Valid 032000Z - 041200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF NORTH-CENTRAL TEXAS AND WESTERN/CENTRAL OKLAHOMA... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorms should increase late this evening and merge into a squall line overnight across parts of the southern and central Plains. Several tornadoes, scattered to numerous severe wind gusts, and large hail are all possible. ...20Z Update... The forecast remains on track, and only minor adjustments were made with this update. In particular, the Marginal Risk was expanded northward into southwest IA, where steepening midlevel lapse rates and sufficient deep-layer shear orthogonal to the low-level front could promote an isolated severe hail risk late in the forecast period. Elsewhere, the Marginal and Slight Risk areas were expanded slightly westward over the southern/central Plains, to account for the latest high-resolution guidance depicting slightly earlier convective initiation in an environment favorable for large hail and severe wind gusts. For additional details, see the previous discussion below. ..Weinman.. 03/03/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1032 AM CST Mon Mar 03 2025/ ...Southern/Central Plains... A pronounced upper trough with attendant 80-100 kt mid-level jet will eject eastward from the Great Basin and Southwest across the southern/central High Plains through tonight. As large-scale ascent associated with this system overspreads the High Plains, lee cyclogenesis will occur over eastern CO. This surface low should deepen further late tonight into early Tuesday morning as it develops into western KS, and as a Pacific cold front sweeps east-southeastward over the southern High Plains through the end of the period. Low-level moisture (surface dewpoints generally in the upper 50s to low/mid 60s) over south/central TX this morning will continue to stream northward over the southern/central Plains ahead of the cold front and an eastward-mixing dryline. Current expectations are for a cap to inhibit robust, surface-based thunderstorm development until late this evening, likely after 03Z. Once the large-scale ascent preceding the upper trough and the Pacific cold front begin to intersect with the warm sector, intense thunderstorms should quickly develop over parts of western OK into south-central KS. Steep mid-level lapse rates, cold temperatures aloft, increasing low-level moisture, and strong deep-layer shear will all contribute to an environment conducive for supercells, with an associated threat for large hail initially. A fairly quick transition to a more linear/QLCS mode is expected as the cold front moves quickly east-southeastward overnight across KS/OK and north TX. Ample low-level shear will be present owing to a 45-60 kt south-southwesterly low-level jet, and embedded circulations within the line will likely be capable of producing tornadoes, assuming sufficient boundary-layer instability to support surface-based convection. Even with various NAM/RAP forecast soundings showing near-neutral lapse rates in the boundary layer overnight, the strength of the low-level flow should still be more than enough to support at least scattered severe/damaging winds with the line as it sweeps eastward across the southern/central Plains through the end of the period (early Tuesday morning). Recent surface observations show at least low 60s surface dewpoints into parts of western north TX and the Red River vicinity of southwest OK. This appears to be a little ahead of schedule for some guidance, and with about 12 more hours of low-level moisture return likely ahead of the cold front, concern is increasing that around 63-64F surface dewpoints should be in place across parts of western/central OK into north-central TX by the time convective initiation occurs tonight. An Enhanced Risk for tornadoes and severe/damaging winds has been introduced across parts of this region where confidence in surface-based thunderstorms and the best combination of instability and low-level shear is forecast. Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0201 PM CST Mon Mar 03 2025 Valid 032000Z - 041200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF NORTH-CENTRAL TEXAS AND WESTERN/CENTRAL OKLAHOMA... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorms should increase late this evening and merge into a squall line overnight across parts of the southern and central Plains. Several tornadoes, scattered to numerous severe wind gusts, and large hail are all possible. ...20Z Update... The forecast remains on track, and only minor adjustments were made with this update. In particular, the Marginal Risk was expanded northward into southwest IA, where steepening midlevel lapse rates and sufficient deep-layer shear orthogonal to the low-level front could promote an isolated severe hail risk late in the forecast period. Elsewhere, the Marginal and Slight Risk areas were expanded slightly westward over the southern/central Plains, to account for the latest high-resolution guidance depicting slightly earlier convective initiation in an environment favorable for large hail and severe wind gusts. For additional details, see the previous discussion below. ..Weinman.. 03/03/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1032 AM CST Mon Mar 03 2025/ ...Southern/Central Plains... A pronounced upper trough with attendant 80-100 kt mid-level jet will eject eastward from the Great Basin and Southwest across the southern/central High Plains through tonight. As large-scale ascent associated with this system overspreads the High Plains, lee cyclogenesis will occur over eastern CO. This surface low should deepen further late tonight into early Tuesday morning as it develops into western KS, and as a Pacific cold front sweeps east-southeastward over the southern High Plains through the end of the period. Low-level moisture (surface dewpoints generally in the upper 50s to low/mid 60s) over south/central TX this morning will continue to stream northward over the southern/central Plains ahead of the cold front and an eastward-mixing dryline. Current expectations are for a cap to inhibit robust, surface-based thunderstorm development until late this evening, likely after 03Z. Once the large-scale ascent preceding the upper trough and the Pacific cold front begin to intersect with the warm sector, intense thunderstorms should quickly develop over parts of western OK into south-central KS. Steep mid-level lapse rates, cold temperatures aloft, increasing low-level moisture, and strong deep-layer shear will all contribute to an environment conducive for supercells, with an associated threat for large hail initially. A fairly quick transition to a more linear/QLCS mode is expected as the cold front moves quickly east-southeastward overnight across KS/OK and north TX. Ample low-level shear will be present owing to a 45-60 kt south-southwesterly low-level jet, and embedded circulations within the line will likely be capable of producing tornadoes, assuming sufficient boundary-layer instability to support surface-based convection. Even with various NAM/RAP forecast soundings showing near-neutral lapse rates in the boundary layer overnight, the strength of the low-level flow should still be more than enough to support at least scattered severe/damaging winds with the line as it sweeps eastward across the southern/central Plains through the end of the period (early Tuesday morning). Recent surface observations show at least low 60s surface dewpoints into parts of western north TX and the Red River vicinity of southwest OK. This appears to be a little ahead of schedule for some guidance, and with about 12 more hours of low-level moisture return likely ahead of the cold front, concern is increasing that around 63-64F surface dewpoints should be in place across parts of western/central OK into north-central TX by the time convective initiation occurs tonight. An Enhanced Risk for tornadoes and severe/damaging winds has been introduced across parts of this region where confidence in surface-based thunderstorms and the best combination of instability and low-level shear is forecast. Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0201 PM CST Mon Mar 03 2025 Valid 032000Z - 041200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF NORTH-CENTRAL TEXAS AND WESTERN/CENTRAL OKLAHOMA... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorms should increase late this evening and merge into a squall line overnight across parts of the southern and central Plains. Several tornadoes, scattered to numerous severe wind gusts, and large hail are all possible. ...20Z Update... The forecast remains on track, and only minor adjustments were made with this update. In particular, the Marginal Risk was expanded northward into southwest IA, where steepening midlevel lapse rates and sufficient deep-layer shear orthogonal to the low-level front could promote an isolated severe hail risk late in the forecast period. Elsewhere, the Marginal and Slight Risk areas were expanded slightly westward over the southern/central Plains, to account for the latest high-resolution guidance depicting slightly earlier convective initiation in an environment favorable for large hail and severe wind gusts. For additional details, see the previous discussion below. ..Weinman.. 03/03/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1032 AM CST Mon Mar 03 2025/ ...Southern/Central Plains... A pronounced upper trough with attendant 80-100 kt mid-level jet will eject eastward from the Great Basin and Southwest across the southern/central High Plains through tonight. As large-scale ascent associated with this system overspreads the High Plains, lee cyclogenesis will occur over eastern CO. This surface low should deepen further late tonight into early Tuesday morning as it develops into western KS, and as a Pacific cold front sweeps east-southeastward over the southern High Plains through the end of the period. Low-level moisture (surface dewpoints generally in the upper 50s to low/mid 60s) over south/central TX this morning will continue to stream northward over the southern/central Plains ahead of the cold front and an eastward-mixing dryline. Current expectations are for a cap to inhibit robust, surface-based thunderstorm development until late this evening, likely after 03Z. Once the large-scale ascent preceding the upper trough and the Pacific cold front begin to intersect with the warm sector, intense thunderstorms should quickly develop over parts of western OK into south-central KS. Steep mid-level lapse rates, cold temperatures aloft, increasing low-level moisture, and strong deep-layer shear will all contribute to an environment conducive for supercells, with an associated threat for large hail initially. A fairly quick transition to a more linear/QLCS mode is expected as the cold front moves quickly east-southeastward overnight across KS/OK and north TX. Ample low-level shear will be present owing to a 45-60 kt south-southwesterly low-level jet, and embedded circulations within the line will likely be capable of producing tornadoes, assuming sufficient boundary-layer instability to support surface-based convection. Even with various NAM/RAP forecast soundings showing near-neutral lapse rates in the boundary layer overnight, the strength of the low-level flow should still be more than enough to support at least scattered severe/damaging winds with the line as it sweeps eastward across the southern/central Plains through the end of the period (early Tuesday morning). Recent surface observations show at least low 60s surface dewpoints into parts of western north TX and the Red River vicinity of southwest OK. This appears to be a little ahead of schedule for some guidance, and with about 12 more hours of low-level moisture return likely ahead of the cold front, concern is increasing that around 63-64F surface dewpoints should be in place across parts of western/central OK into north-central TX by the time convective initiation occurs tonight. An Enhanced Risk for tornadoes and severe/damaging winds has been introduced across parts of this region where confidence in surface-based thunderstorms and the best combination of instability and low-level shear is forecast. Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0201 PM CST Mon Mar 03 2025 Valid 032000Z - 041200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF NORTH-CENTRAL TEXAS AND WESTERN/CENTRAL OKLAHOMA... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorms should increase late this evening and merge into a squall line overnight across parts of the southern and central Plains. Several tornadoes, scattered to numerous severe wind gusts, and large hail are all possible. ...20Z Update... The forecast remains on track, and only minor adjustments were made with this update. In particular, the Marginal Risk was expanded northward into southwest IA, where steepening midlevel lapse rates and sufficient deep-layer shear orthogonal to the low-level front could promote an isolated severe hail risk late in the forecast period. Elsewhere, the Marginal and Slight Risk areas were expanded slightly westward over the southern/central Plains, to account for the latest high-resolution guidance depicting slightly earlier convective initiation in an environment favorable for large hail and severe wind gusts. For additional details, see the previous discussion below. ..Weinman.. 03/03/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1032 AM CST Mon Mar 03 2025/ ...Southern/Central Plains... A pronounced upper trough with attendant 80-100 kt mid-level jet will eject eastward from the Great Basin and Southwest across the southern/central High Plains through tonight. As large-scale ascent associated with this system overspreads the High Plains, lee cyclogenesis will occur over eastern CO. This surface low should deepen further late tonight into early Tuesday morning as it develops into western KS, and as a Pacific cold front sweeps east-southeastward over the southern High Plains through the end of the period. Low-level moisture (surface dewpoints generally in the upper 50s to low/mid 60s) over south/central TX this morning will continue to stream northward over the southern/central Plains ahead of the cold front and an eastward-mixing dryline. Current expectations are for a cap to inhibit robust, surface-based thunderstorm development until late this evening, likely after 03Z. Once the large-scale ascent preceding the upper trough and the Pacific cold front begin to intersect with the warm sector, intense thunderstorms should quickly develop over parts of western OK into south-central KS. Steep mid-level lapse rates, cold temperatures aloft, increasing low-level moisture, and strong deep-layer shear will all contribute to an environment conducive for supercells, with an associated threat for large hail initially. A fairly quick transition to a more linear/QLCS mode is expected as the cold front moves quickly east-southeastward overnight across KS/OK and north TX. Ample low-level shear will be present owing to a 45-60 kt south-southwesterly low-level jet, and embedded circulations within the line will likely be capable of producing tornadoes, assuming sufficient boundary-layer instability to support surface-based convection. Even with various NAM/RAP forecast soundings showing near-neutral lapse rates in the boundary layer overnight, the strength of the low-level flow should still be more than enough to support at least scattered severe/damaging winds with the line as it sweeps eastward across the southern/central Plains through the end of the period (early Tuesday morning). Recent surface observations show at least low 60s surface dewpoints into parts of western north TX and the Red River vicinity of southwest OK. This appears to be a little ahead of schedule for some guidance, and with about 12 more hours of low-level moisture return likely ahead of the cold front, concern is increasing that around 63-64F surface dewpoints should be in place across parts of western/central OK into north-central TX by the time convective initiation occurs tonight. An Enhanced Risk for tornadoes and severe/damaging winds has been introduced across parts of this region where confidence in surface-based thunderstorms and the best combination of instability and low-level shear is forecast. Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0201 PM CST Mon Mar 03 2025 Valid 032000Z - 041200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF NORTH-CENTRAL TEXAS AND WESTERN/CENTRAL OKLAHOMA... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorms should increase late this evening and merge into a squall line overnight across parts of the southern and central Plains. Several tornadoes, scattered to numerous severe wind gusts, and large hail are all possible. ...20Z Update... The forecast remains on track, and only minor adjustments were made with this update. In particular, the Marginal Risk was expanded northward into southwest IA, where steepening midlevel lapse rates and sufficient deep-layer shear orthogonal to the low-level front could promote an isolated severe hail risk late in the forecast period. Elsewhere, the Marginal and Slight Risk areas were expanded slightly westward over the southern/central Plains, to account for the latest high-resolution guidance depicting slightly earlier convective initiation in an environment favorable for large hail and severe wind gusts. For additional details, see the previous discussion below. ..Weinman.. 03/03/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1032 AM CST Mon Mar 03 2025/ ...Southern/Central Plains... A pronounced upper trough with attendant 80-100 kt mid-level jet will eject eastward from the Great Basin and Southwest across the southern/central High Plains through tonight. As large-scale ascent associated with this system overspreads the High Plains, lee cyclogenesis will occur over eastern CO. This surface low should deepen further late tonight into early Tuesday morning as it develops into western KS, and as a Pacific cold front sweeps east-southeastward over the southern High Plains through the end of the period. Low-level moisture (surface dewpoints generally in the upper 50s to low/mid 60s) over south/central TX this morning will continue to stream northward over the southern/central Plains ahead of the cold front and an eastward-mixing dryline. Current expectations are for a cap to inhibit robust, surface-based thunderstorm development until late this evening, likely after 03Z. Once the large-scale ascent preceding the upper trough and the Pacific cold front begin to intersect with the warm sector, intense thunderstorms should quickly develop over parts of western OK into south-central KS. Steep mid-level lapse rates, cold temperatures aloft, increasing low-level moisture, and strong deep-layer shear will all contribute to an environment conducive for supercells, with an associated threat for large hail initially. A fairly quick transition to a more linear/QLCS mode is expected as the cold front moves quickly east-southeastward overnight across KS/OK and north TX. Ample low-level shear will be present owing to a 45-60 kt south-southwesterly low-level jet, and embedded circulations within the line will likely be capable of producing tornadoes, assuming sufficient boundary-layer instability to support surface-based convection. Even with various NAM/RAP forecast soundings showing near-neutral lapse rates in the boundary layer overnight, the strength of the low-level flow should still be more than enough to support at least scattered severe/damaging winds with the line as it sweeps eastward across the southern/central Plains through the end of the period (early Tuesday morning). Recent surface observations show at least low 60s surface dewpoints into parts of western north TX and the Red River vicinity of southwest OK. This appears to be a little ahead of schedule for some guidance, and with about 12 more hours of low-level moisture return likely ahead of the cold front, concern is increasing that around 63-64F surface dewpoints should be in place across parts of western/central OK into north-central TX by the time convective initiation occurs tonight. An Enhanced Risk for tornadoes and severe/damaging winds has been introduced across parts of this region where confidence in surface-based thunderstorms and the best combination of instability and low-level shear is forecast. Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0201 PM CST Mon Mar 03 2025 Valid 032000Z - 041200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF NORTH-CENTRAL TEXAS AND WESTERN/CENTRAL OKLAHOMA... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorms should increase late this evening and merge into a squall line overnight across parts of the southern and central Plains. Several tornadoes, scattered to numerous severe wind gusts, and large hail are all possible. ...20Z Update... The forecast remains on track, and only minor adjustments were made with this update. In particular, the Marginal Risk was expanded northward into southwest IA, where steepening midlevel lapse rates and sufficient deep-layer shear orthogonal to the low-level front could promote an isolated severe hail risk late in the forecast period. Elsewhere, the Marginal and Slight Risk areas were expanded slightly westward over the southern/central Plains, to account for the latest high-resolution guidance depicting slightly earlier convective initiation in an environment favorable for large hail and severe wind gusts. For additional details, see the previous discussion below. ..Weinman.. 03/03/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1032 AM CST Mon Mar 03 2025/ ...Southern/Central Plains... A pronounced upper trough with attendant 80-100 kt mid-level jet will eject eastward from the Great Basin and Southwest across the southern/central High Plains through tonight. As large-scale ascent associated with this system overspreads the High Plains, lee cyclogenesis will occur over eastern CO. This surface low should deepen further late tonight into early Tuesday morning as it develops into western KS, and as a Pacific cold front sweeps east-southeastward over the southern High Plains through the end of the period. Low-level moisture (surface dewpoints generally in the upper 50s to low/mid 60s) over south/central TX this morning will continue to stream northward over the southern/central Plains ahead of the cold front and an eastward-mixing dryline. Current expectations are for a cap to inhibit robust, surface-based thunderstorm development until late this evening, likely after 03Z. Once the large-scale ascent preceding the upper trough and the Pacific cold front begin to intersect with the warm sector, intense thunderstorms should quickly develop over parts of western OK into south-central KS. Steep mid-level lapse rates, cold temperatures aloft, increasing low-level moisture, and strong deep-layer shear will all contribute to an environment conducive for supercells, with an associated threat for large hail initially. A fairly quick transition to a more linear/QLCS mode is expected as the cold front moves quickly east-southeastward overnight across KS/OK and north TX. Ample low-level shear will be present owing to a 45-60 kt south-southwesterly low-level jet, and embedded circulations within the line will likely be capable of producing tornadoes, assuming sufficient boundary-layer instability to support surface-based convection. Even with various NAM/RAP forecast soundings showing near-neutral lapse rates in the boundary layer overnight, the strength of the low-level flow should still be more than enough to support at least scattered severe/damaging winds with the line as it sweeps eastward across the southern/central Plains through the end of the period (early Tuesday morning). Recent surface observations show at least low 60s surface dewpoints into parts of western north TX and the Red River vicinity of southwest OK. This appears to be a little ahead of schedule for some guidance, and with about 12 more hours of low-level moisture return likely ahead of the cold front, concern is increasing that around 63-64F surface dewpoints should be in place across parts of western/central OK into north-central TX by the time convective initiation occurs tonight. An Enhanced Risk for tornadoes and severe/damaging winds has been introduced across parts of this region where confidence in surface-based thunderstorms and the best combination of instability and low-level shear is forecast. Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0133 PM CST Mon Mar 03 2025 Valid 041200Z - 051200Z ...EXTREMELY CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTH-CENTRAL TEXAS AND THE TEXAS HILL COUNTRY.... ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHERN PLAINS.... ...Dangerous, potentially historic, fire-weather conditions are likely over portions of the Edwards Plateau and south Texas Plain Tuesday... As the strong upper trough and intense 100-120 kt mid-level jet streak move eastward over the southern Plains, a deep surface cyclone will continue to rapidly intensify as it moves over eastern KS/OK. Trailing the surface low, a sharp dryline will also mix eastward with very dry surface conditions likely behind it. Afternoon RH values will quickly decrease with minimum values of 7-15% as temperatures warm into the 60s and 70s F. The dry and well-mixed boundary layer will intersect with very strong wind fields (1-4 km agl winds of 50-90 kt) south of the intense cyclone bringing very strong flow to the surface. Widespread sustained west/northwesterly winds of 30-40 mph are expected, with gusts of 50-60 mph possible across much of south-central TX. The potentially historic wind/RH overlap will support widespread critical and extremely critical fire-weather conditions over very dry and heavy fuels loads. ERC and 10 hr fuel moisture values above the 90th and below the 10th percentiles respectively will undergo further drying to near record levels through the day as winds increase. The combination of extreme weather and very receptive fuels will likely support very high-volume initial attack, extreme rates of spread, and uncontrollable fire behavior. Intense fire-weather conditions will continue through Tuesday afternoon and begin to weaken Tuesday evening and overnight as an advancing Pacific front supports higher humidity recoveries and weaker winds. A secondary upper jet feature will rotate south over the northern TX Panhandle and western OK later in the afternoon and evening. As the surface low departs, a strong pressure gradient will allow several hours of very strong northwesterly winds of 30-40 mph to develop behind the low. Strong winds will overspread areas that have had and are likely to receive some additional wetting rainfall. However, the potential for 40-60 mph gusts and rapidly decreasing humidity, post-dryline, Tuesday afternoon may support brief elevated to near-critical fire-weather concerns. The primary change for the 20z update was to include a category 3 Extremely Critical area over the Big Bend and eastern Edwards Plateau to the I-35 corridor in south-central TX. Additional modifications were made to areas expected to see significant precipitation from overnight storms over north TX and central OK. Elevated fire-weather conditions are also possible over parts of the central Appalachians. See the prior outlook for more information. ..Lyons.. 03/03/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0159 AM CST Mon Mar 03 2025/ ...Synopsis... A mid-level trough will traverse the Mississippi Valley, supporting the eastward progression of a strong surface low from the central Plains to the Ohio Valley tomorrow (Tuesday). A dryline will sweep eastward across the southern Plains, promoting wildfire-spread potential. Ahead of the surface low, increasing southerly flow will advect an initially dry airmass over the central Appalachians, supporting some potential for wildfire-spread in this region as well. ...Southeast New Mexico into southern Texas... As the dryline advances eastward across central Texas tomorrow afternoon, the combination of strong isallobaric and downslope flow will support up to 30 mph sustained westerly surface winds across much of the southern High Plains into central Texas. RH should dip to 15-25 percent across the Texas Panhandle into northern Texas, with RH dropping to 10 percent in parts of southern Texas. Given drying fuels across the region, widespread Elevated/Critical highlights have been introduced. A squall line is expected to develop across portions of Oklahoma into northern Texas late Monday night into Tuesday morning, potentially dampening fuels. As such, fire weather highlights in these areas may need to be removed if appreciable rainfall accumulations are realized. ...Portions of the central Appalachians... By afternoon peak heating, RH may dip to 30-35 percent across portions of northeast Tennessee into southern West Virginia, as an initially dry airmass is shunted northward with the approach of a surface cyclone and accompanying upper trough. Guidance consensus suggests that boundary-layer flow will increase during the afternoon, with 15 mph sustained southerly surface winds potentially coinciding with the lower RH for a few hours. Given that such conditions will overspread dry fuels, Elevated highlights are warranted. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0133 PM CST Mon Mar 03 2025 Valid 041200Z - 051200Z ...EXTREMELY CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTH-CENTRAL TEXAS AND THE TEXAS HILL COUNTRY.... ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHERN PLAINS.... ...Dangerous, potentially historic, fire-weather conditions are likely over portions of the Edwards Plateau and south Texas Plain Tuesday... As the strong upper trough and intense 100-120 kt mid-level jet streak move eastward over the southern Plains, a deep surface cyclone will continue to rapidly intensify as it moves over eastern KS/OK. Trailing the surface low, a sharp dryline will also mix eastward with very dry surface conditions likely behind it. Afternoon RH values will quickly decrease with minimum values of 7-15% as temperatures warm into the 60s and 70s F. The dry and well-mixed boundary layer will intersect with very strong wind fields (1-4 km agl winds of 50-90 kt) south of the intense cyclone bringing very strong flow to the surface. Widespread sustained west/northwesterly winds of 30-40 mph are expected, with gusts of 50-60 mph possible across much of south-central TX. The potentially historic wind/RH overlap will support widespread critical and extremely critical fire-weather conditions over very dry and heavy fuels loads. ERC and 10 hr fuel moisture values above the 90th and below the 10th percentiles respectively will undergo further drying to near record levels through the day as winds increase. The combination of extreme weather and very receptive fuels will likely support very high-volume initial attack, extreme rates of spread, and uncontrollable fire behavior. Intense fire-weather conditions will continue through Tuesday afternoon and begin to weaken Tuesday evening and overnight as an advancing Pacific front supports higher humidity recoveries and weaker winds. A secondary upper jet feature will rotate south over the northern TX Panhandle and western OK later in the afternoon and evening. As the surface low departs, a strong pressure gradient will allow several hours of very strong northwesterly winds of 30-40 mph to develop behind the low. Strong winds will overspread areas that have had and are likely to receive some additional wetting rainfall. However, the potential for 40-60 mph gusts and rapidly decreasing humidity, post-dryline, Tuesday afternoon may support brief elevated to near-critical fire-weather concerns. The primary change for the 20z update was to include a category 3 Extremely Critical area over the Big Bend and eastern Edwards Plateau to the I-35 corridor in south-central TX. Additional modifications were made to areas expected to see significant precipitation from overnight storms over north TX and central OK. Elevated fire-weather conditions are also possible over parts of the central Appalachians. See the prior outlook for more information. ..Lyons.. 03/03/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0159 AM CST Mon Mar 03 2025/ ...Synopsis... A mid-level trough will traverse the Mississippi Valley, supporting the eastward progression of a strong surface low from the central Plains to the Ohio Valley tomorrow (Tuesday). A dryline will sweep eastward across the southern Plains, promoting wildfire-spread potential. Ahead of the surface low, increasing southerly flow will advect an initially dry airmass over the central Appalachians, supporting some potential for wildfire-spread in this region as well. ...Southeast New Mexico into southern Texas... As the dryline advances eastward across central Texas tomorrow afternoon, the combination of strong isallobaric and downslope flow will support up to 30 mph sustained westerly surface winds across much of the southern High Plains into central Texas. RH should dip to 15-25 percent across the Texas Panhandle into northern Texas, with RH dropping to 10 percent in parts of southern Texas. Given drying fuels across the region, widespread Elevated/Critical highlights have been introduced. A squall line is expected to develop across portions of Oklahoma into northern Texas late Monday night into Tuesday morning, potentially dampening fuels. As such, fire weather highlights in these areas may need to be removed if appreciable rainfall accumulations are realized. ...Portions of the central Appalachians... By afternoon peak heating, RH may dip to 30-35 percent across portions of northeast Tennessee into southern West Virginia, as an initially dry airmass is shunted northward with the approach of a surface cyclone and accompanying upper trough. Guidance consensus suggests that boundary-layer flow will increase during the afternoon, with 15 mph sustained southerly surface winds potentially coinciding with the lower RH for a few hours. Given that such conditions will overspread dry fuels, Elevated highlights are warranted. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0133 PM CST Mon Mar 03 2025 Valid 041200Z - 051200Z ...EXTREMELY CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTH-CENTRAL TEXAS AND THE TEXAS HILL COUNTRY.... ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHERN PLAINS.... ...Dangerous, potentially historic, fire-weather conditions are likely over portions of the Edwards Plateau and south Texas Plain Tuesday... As the strong upper trough and intense 100-120 kt mid-level jet streak move eastward over the southern Plains, a deep surface cyclone will continue to rapidly intensify as it moves over eastern KS/OK. Trailing the surface low, a sharp dryline will also mix eastward with very dry surface conditions likely behind it. Afternoon RH values will quickly decrease with minimum values of 7-15% as temperatures warm into the 60s and 70s F. The dry and well-mixed boundary layer will intersect with very strong wind fields (1-4 km agl winds of 50-90 kt) south of the intense cyclone bringing very strong flow to the surface. Widespread sustained west/northwesterly winds of 30-40 mph are expected, with gusts of 50-60 mph possible across much of south-central TX. The potentially historic wind/RH overlap will support widespread critical and extremely critical fire-weather conditions over very dry and heavy fuels loads. ERC and 10 hr fuel moisture values above the 90th and below the 10th percentiles respectively will undergo further drying to near record levels through the day as winds increase. The combination of extreme weather and very receptive fuels will likely support very high-volume initial attack, extreme rates of spread, and uncontrollable fire behavior. Intense fire-weather conditions will continue through Tuesday afternoon and begin to weaken Tuesday evening and overnight as an advancing Pacific front supports higher humidity recoveries and weaker winds. A secondary upper jet feature will rotate south over the northern TX Panhandle and western OK later in the afternoon and evening. As the surface low departs, a strong pressure gradient will allow several hours of very strong northwesterly winds of 30-40 mph to develop behind the low. Strong winds will overspread areas that have had and are likely to receive some additional wetting rainfall. However, the potential for 40-60 mph gusts and rapidly decreasing humidity, post-dryline, Tuesday afternoon may support brief elevated to near-critical fire-weather concerns. The primary change for the 20z update was to include a category 3 Extremely Critical area over the Big Bend and eastern Edwards Plateau to the I-35 corridor in south-central TX. Additional modifications were made to areas expected to see significant precipitation from overnight storms over north TX and central OK. Elevated fire-weather conditions are also possible over parts of the central Appalachians. See the prior outlook for more information. ..Lyons.. 03/03/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0159 AM CST Mon Mar 03 2025/ ...Synopsis... A mid-level trough will traverse the Mississippi Valley, supporting the eastward progression of a strong surface low from the central Plains to the Ohio Valley tomorrow (Tuesday). A dryline will sweep eastward across the southern Plains, promoting wildfire-spread potential. Ahead of the surface low, increasing southerly flow will advect an initially dry airmass over the central Appalachians, supporting some potential for wildfire-spread in this region as well. ...Southeast New Mexico into southern Texas... As the dryline advances eastward across central Texas tomorrow afternoon, the combination of strong isallobaric and downslope flow will support up to 30 mph sustained westerly surface winds across much of the southern High Plains into central Texas. RH should dip to 15-25 percent across the Texas Panhandle into northern Texas, with RH dropping to 10 percent in parts of southern Texas. Given drying fuels across the region, widespread Elevated/Critical highlights have been introduced. A squall line is expected to develop across portions of Oklahoma into northern Texas late Monday night into Tuesday morning, potentially dampening fuels. As such, fire weather highlights in these areas may need to be removed if appreciable rainfall accumulations are realized. ...Portions of the central Appalachians... By afternoon peak heating, RH may dip to 30-35 percent across portions of northeast Tennessee into southern West Virginia, as an initially dry airmass is shunted northward with the approach of a surface cyclone and accompanying upper trough. Guidance consensus suggests that boundary-layer flow will increase during the afternoon, with 15 mph sustained southerly surface winds potentially coinciding with the lower RH for a few hours. Given that such conditions will overspread dry fuels, Elevated highlights are warranted. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0133 PM CST Mon Mar 03 2025 Valid 041200Z - 051200Z ...EXTREMELY CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTH-CENTRAL TEXAS AND THE TEXAS HILL COUNTRY.... ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHERN PLAINS.... ...Dangerous, potentially historic, fire-weather conditions are likely over portions of the Edwards Plateau and south Texas Plain Tuesday... As the strong upper trough and intense 100-120 kt mid-level jet streak move eastward over the southern Plains, a deep surface cyclone will continue to rapidly intensify as it moves over eastern KS/OK. Trailing the surface low, a sharp dryline will also mix eastward with very dry surface conditions likely behind it. Afternoon RH values will quickly decrease with minimum values of 7-15% as temperatures warm into the 60s and 70s F. The dry and well-mixed boundary layer will intersect with very strong wind fields (1-4 km agl winds of 50-90 kt) south of the intense cyclone bringing very strong flow to the surface. Widespread sustained west/northwesterly winds of 30-40 mph are expected, with gusts of 50-60 mph possible across much of south-central TX. The potentially historic wind/RH overlap will support widespread critical and extremely critical fire-weather conditions over very dry and heavy fuels loads. ERC and 10 hr fuel moisture values above the 90th and below the 10th percentiles respectively will undergo further drying to near record levels through the day as winds increase. The combination of extreme weather and very receptive fuels will likely support very high-volume initial attack, extreme rates of spread, and uncontrollable fire behavior. Intense fire-weather conditions will continue through Tuesday afternoon and begin to weaken Tuesday evening and overnight as an advancing Pacific front supports higher humidity recoveries and weaker winds. A secondary upper jet feature will rotate south over the northern TX Panhandle and western OK later in the afternoon and evening. As the surface low departs, a strong pressure gradient will allow several hours of very strong northwesterly winds of 30-40 mph to develop behind the low. Strong winds will overspread areas that have had and are likely to receive some additional wetting rainfall. However, the potential for 40-60 mph gusts and rapidly decreasing humidity, post-dryline, Tuesday afternoon may support brief elevated to near-critical fire-weather concerns. The primary change for the 20z update was to include a category 3 Extremely Critical area over the Big Bend and eastern Edwards Plateau to the I-35 corridor in south-central TX. Additional modifications were made to areas expected to see significant precipitation from overnight storms over north TX and central OK. Elevated fire-weather conditions are also possible over parts of the central Appalachians. See the prior outlook for more information. ..Lyons.. 03/03/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0159 AM CST Mon Mar 03 2025/ ...Synopsis... A mid-level trough will traverse the Mississippi Valley, supporting the eastward progression of a strong surface low from the central Plains to the Ohio Valley tomorrow (Tuesday). A dryline will sweep eastward across the southern Plains, promoting wildfire-spread potential. Ahead of the surface low, increasing southerly flow will advect an initially dry airmass over the central Appalachians, supporting some potential for wildfire-spread in this region as well. ...Southeast New Mexico into southern Texas... As the dryline advances eastward across central Texas tomorrow afternoon, the combination of strong isallobaric and downslope flow will support up to 30 mph sustained westerly surface winds across much of the southern High Plains into central Texas. RH should dip to 15-25 percent across the Texas Panhandle into northern Texas, with RH dropping to 10 percent in parts of southern Texas. Given drying fuels across the region, widespread Elevated/Critical highlights have been introduced. A squall line is expected to develop across portions of Oklahoma into northern Texas late Monday night into Tuesday morning, potentially dampening fuels. As such, fire weather highlights in these areas may need to be removed if appreciable rainfall accumulations are realized. ...Portions of the central Appalachians... By afternoon peak heating, RH may dip to 30-35 percent across portions of northeast Tennessee into southern West Virginia, as an initially dry airmass is shunted northward with the approach of a surface cyclone and accompanying upper trough. Guidance consensus suggests that boundary-layer flow will increase during the afternoon, with 15 mph sustained southerly surface winds potentially coinciding with the lower RH for a few hours. Given that such conditions will overspread dry fuels, Elevated highlights are warranted. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0133 PM CST Mon Mar 03 2025 Valid 041200Z - 051200Z ...EXTREMELY CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTH-CENTRAL TEXAS AND THE TEXAS HILL COUNTRY.... ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHERN PLAINS.... ...Dangerous, potentially historic, fire-weather conditions are likely over portions of the Edwards Plateau and south Texas Plain Tuesday... As the strong upper trough and intense 100-120 kt mid-level jet streak move eastward over the southern Plains, a deep surface cyclone will continue to rapidly intensify as it moves over eastern KS/OK. Trailing the surface low, a sharp dryline will also mix eastward with very dry surface conditions likely behind it. Afternoon RH values will quickly decrease with minimum values of 7-15% as temperatures warm into the 60s and 70s F. The dry and well-mixed boundary layer will intersect with very strong wind fields (1-4 km agl winds of 50-90 kt) south of the intense cyclone bringing very strong flow to the surface. Widespread sustained west/northwesterly winds of 30-40 mph are expected, with gusts of 50-60 mph possible across much of south-central TX. The potentially historic wind/RH overlap will support widespread critical and extremely critical fire-weather conditions over very dry and heavy fuels loads. ERC and 10 hr fuel moisture values above the 90th and below the 10th percentiles respectively will undergo further drying to near record levels through the day as winds increase. The combination of extreme weather and very receptive fuels will likely support very high-volume initial attack, extreme rates of spread, and uncontrollable fire behavior. Intense fire-weather conditions will continue through Tuesday afternoon and begin to weaken Tuesday evening and overnight as an advancing Pacific front supports higher humidity recoveries and weaker winds. A secondary upper jet feature will rotate south over the northern TX Panhandle and western OK later in the afternoon and evening. As the surface low departs, a strong pressure gradient will allow several hours of very strong northwesterly winds of 30-40 mph to develop behind the low. Strong winds will overspread areas that have had and are likely to receive some additional wetting rainfall. However, the potential for 40-60 mph gusts and rapidly decreasing humidity, post-dryline, Tuesday afternoon may support brief elevated to near-critical fire-weather concerns. The primary change for the 20z update was to include a category 3 Extremely Critical area over the Big Bend and eastern Edwards Plateau to the I-35 corridor in south-central TX. Additional modifications were made to areas expected to see significant precipitation from overnight storms over north TX and central OK. Elevated fire-weather conditions are also possible over parts of the central Appalachians. See the prior outlook for more information. ..Lyons.. 03/03/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0159 AM CST Mon Mar 03 2025/ ...Synopsis... A mid-level trough will traverse the Mississippi Valley, supporting the eastward progression of a strong surface low from the central Plains to the Ohio Valley tomorrow (Tuesday). A dryline will sweep eastward across the southern Plains, promoting wildfire-spread potential. Ahead of the surface low, increasing southerly flow will advect an initially dry airmass over the central Appalachians, supporting some potential for wildfire-spread in this region as well. ...Southeast New Mexico into southern Texas... As the dryline advances eastward across central Texas tomorrow afternoon, the combination of strong isallobaric and downslope flow will support up to 30 mph sustained westerly surface winds across much of the southern High Plains into central Texas. RH should dip to 15-25 percent across the Texas Panhandle into northern Texas, with RH dropping to 10 percent in parts of southern Texas. Given drying fuels across the region, widespread Elevated/Critical highlights have been introduced. A squall line is expected to develop across portions of Oklahoma into northern Texas late Monday night into Tuesday morning, potentially dampening fuels. As such, fire weather highlights in these areas may need to be removed if appreciable rainfall accumulations are realized. ...Portions of the central Appalachians... By afternoon peak heating, RH may dip to 30-35 percent across portions of northeast Tennessee into southern West Virginia, as an initially dry airmass is shunted northward with the approach of a surface cyclone and accompanying upper trough. Guidance consensus suggests that boundary-layer flow will increase during the afternoon, with 15 mph sustained southerly surface winds potentially coinciding with the lower RH for a few hours. Given that such conditions will overspread dry fuels, Elevated highlights are warranted. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0133 PM CST Mon Mar 03 2025 Valid 041200Z - 051200Z ...EXTREMELY CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTH-CENTRAL TEXAS AND THE TEXAS HILL COUNTRY.... ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHERN PLAINS.... ...Dangerous, potentially historic, fire-weather conditions are likely over portions of the Edwards Plateau and south Texas Plain Tuesday... As the strong upper trough and intense 100-120 kt mid-level jet streak move eastward over the southern Plains, a deep surface cyclone will continue to rapidly intensify as it moves over eastern KS/OK. Trailing the surface low, a sharp dryline will also mix eastward with very dry surface conditions likely behind it. Afternoon RH values will quickly decrease with minimum values of 7-15% as temperatures warm into the 60s and 70s F. The dry and well-mixed boundary layer will intersect with very strong wind fields (1-4 km agl winds of 50-90 kt) south of the intense cyclone bringing very strong flow to the surface. Widespread sustained west/northwesterly winds of 30-40 mph are expected, with gusts of 50-60 mph possible across much of south-central TX. The potentially historic wind/RH overlap will support widespread critical and extremely critical fire-weather conditions over very dry and heavy fuels loads. ERC and 10 hr fuel moisture values above the 90th and below the 10th percentiles respectively will undergo further drying to near record levels through the day as winds increase. The combination of extreme weather and very receptive fuels will likely support very high-volume initial attack, extreme rates of spread, and uncontrollable fire behavior. Intense fire-weather conditions will continue through Tuesday afternoon and begin to weaken Tuesday evening and overnight as an advancing Pacific front supports higher humidity recoveries and weaker winds. A secondary upper jet feature will rotate south over the northern TX Panhandle and western OK later in the afternoon and evening. As the surface low departs, a strong pressure gradient will allow several hours of very strong northwesterly winds of 30-40 mph to develop behind the low. Strong winds will overspread areas that have had and are likely to receive some additional wetting rainfall. However, the potential for 40-60 mph gusts and rapidly decreasing humidity, post-dryline, Tuesday afternoon may support brief elevated to near-critical fire-weather concerns. The primary change for the 20z update was to include a category 3 Extremely Critical area over the Big Bend and eastern Edwards Plateau to the I-35 corridor in south-central TX. Additional modifications were made to areas expected to see significant precipitation from overnight storms over north TX and central OK. Elevated fire-weather conditions are also possible over parts of the central Appalachians. See the prior outlook for more information. ..Lyons.. 03/03/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0159 AM CST Mon Mar 03 2025/ ...Synopsis... A mid-level trough will traverse the Mississippi Valley, supporting the eastward progression of a strong surface low from the central Plains to the Ohio Valley tomorrow (Tuesday). A dryline will sweep eastward across the southern Plains, promoting wildfire-spread potential. Ahead of the surface low, increasing southerly flow will advect an initially dry airmass over the central Appalachians, supporting some potential for wildfire-spread in this region as well. ...Southeast New Mexico into southern Texas... As the dryline advances eastward across central Texas tomorrow afternoon, the combination of strong isallobaric and downslope flow will support up to 30 mph sustained westerly surface winds across much of the southern High Plains into central Texas. RH should dip to 15-25 percent across the Texas Panhandle into northern Texas, with RH dropping to 10 percent in parts of southern Texas. Given drying fuels across the region, widespread Elevated/Critical highlights have been introduced. A squall line is expected to develop across portions of Oklahoma into northern Texas late Monday night into Tuesday morning, potentially dampening fuels. As such, fire weather highlights in these areas may need to be removed if appreciable rainfall accumulations are realized. ...Portions of the central Appalachians... By afternoon peak heating, RH may dip to 30-35 percent across portions of northeast Tennessee into southern West Virginia, as an initially dry airmass is shunted northward with the approach of a surface cyclone and accompanying upper trough. Guidance consensus suggests that boundary-layer flow will increase during the afternoon, with 15 mph sustained southerly surface winds potentially coinciding with the lower RH for a few hours. Given that such conditions will overspread dry fuels, Elevated highlights are warranted. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0133 PM CST Mon Mar 03 2025 Valid 041200Z - 051200Z ...EXTREMELY CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTH-CENTRAL TEXAS AND THE TEXAS HILL COUNTRY.... ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHERN PLAINS.... ...Dangerous, potentially historic, fire-weather conditions are likely over portions of the Edwards Plateau and south Texas Plain Tuesday... As the strong upper trough and intense 100-120 kt mid-level jet streak move eastward over the southern Plains, a deep surface cyclone will continue to rapidly intensify as it moves over eastern KS/OK. Trailing the surface low, a sharp dryline will also mix eastward with very dry surface conditions likely behind it. Afternoon RH values will quickly decrease with minimum values of 7-15% as temperatures warm into the 60s and 70s F. The dry and well-mixed boundary layer will intersect with very strong wind fields (1-4 km agl winds of 50-90 kt) south of the intense cyclone bringing very strong flow to the surface. Widespread sustained west/northwesterly winds of 30-40 mph are expected, with gusts of 50-60 mph possible across much of south-central TX. The potentially historic wind/RH overlap will support widespread critical and extremely critical fire-weather conditions over very dry and heavy fuels loads. ERC and 10 hr fuel moisture values above the 90th and below the 10th percentiles respectively will undergo further drying to near record levels through the day as winds increase. The combination of extreme weather and very receptive fuels will likely support very high-volume initial attack, extreme rates of spread, and uncontrollable fire behavior. Intense fire-weather conditions will continue through Tuesday afternoon and begin to weaken Tuesday evening and overnight as an advancing Pacific front supports higher humidity recoveries and weaker winds. A secondary upper jet feature will rotate south over the northern TX Panhandle and western OK later in the afternoon and evening. As the surface low departs, a strong pressure gradient will allow several hours of very strong northwesterly winds of 30-40 mph to develop behind the low. Strong winds will overspread areas that have had and are likely to receive some additional wetting rainfall. However, the potential for 40-60 mph gusts and rapidly decreasing humidity, post-dryline, Tuesday afternoon may support brief elevated to near-critical fire-weather concerns. The primary change for the 20z update was to include a category 3 Extremely Critical area over the Big Bend and eastern Edwards Plateau to the I-35 corridor in south-central TX. Additional modifications were made to areas expected to see significant precipitation from overnight storms over north TX and central OK. Elevated fire-weather conditions are also possible over parts of the central Appalachians. See the prior outlook for more information. ..Lyons.. 03/03/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0159 AM CST Mon Mar 03 2025/ ...Synopsis... A mid-level trough will traverse the Mississippi Valley, supporting the eastward progression of a strong surface low from the central Plains to the Ohio Valley tomorrow (Tuesday). A dryline will sweep eastward across the southern Plains, promoting wildfire-spread potential. Ahead of the surface low, increasing southerly flow will advect an initially dry airmass over the central Appalachians, supporting some potential for wildfire-spread in this region as well. ...Southeast New Mexico into southern Texas... As the dryline advances eastward across central Texas tomorrow afternoon, the combination of strong isallobaric and downslope flow will support up to 30 mph sustained westerly surface winds across much of the southern High Plains into central Texas. RH should dip to 15-25 percent across the Texas Panhandle into northern Texas, with RH dropping to 10 percent in parts of southern Texas. Given drying fuels across the region, widespread Elevated/Critical highlights have been introduced. A squall line is expected to develop across portions of Oklahoma into northern Texas late Monday night into Tuesday morning, potentially dampening fuels. As such, fire weather highlights in these areas may need to be removed if appreciable rainfall accumulations are realized. ...Portions of the central Appalachians... By afternoon peak heating, RH may dip to 30-35 percent across portions of northeast Tennessee into southern West Virginia, as an initially dry airmass is shunted northward with the approach of a surface cyclone and accompanying upper trough. Guidance consensus suggests that boundary-layer flow will increase during the afternoon, with 15 mph sustained southerly surface winds potentially coinciding with the lower RH for a few hours. Given that such conditions will overspread dry fuels, Elevated highlights are warranted. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more