Severe Storms

MD 0124 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH LIKELY FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTH-CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST KANSAS
Mesoscale Discussion 0124 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0713 PM CST Mon Mar 03 2025 Areas affected...portions of south-central and southeast Kansas Concerning...Severe potential...Severe Thunderstorm Watch likely Valid 040113Z - 040245Z Probability of Watch Issuance...95 percent SUMMARY...Severe thunderstorms posing main a risk for large hail and isolated damaging wind gusts are expected to develop by 03-04z. A severe thunderstorm watch will likely be needed for portions of south-central and southeast Kansas in the next hour or so. DISCUSSION...Low-level warm advection across OK/TX into southern KS will persist through the evening and overnight hours ahead of an eastward-advancing surface low (currently centered over southeast CO) and attendant cold front. 00z regional RAOBs from DDC and OUN indicate a robust warm layer/cap atop a cool boundary layer, similar to forecast sounding guidance. Strong large-scale ascent associated with the ejecting upper low/shortwave trough and linear forcing related to the advancing cold front will act to weak inhibition some. However, convection developing by 03-04z is expected to largely remain elevated given a lack of a warmer/more moist boundary layer. Nevertheless, steep midlevel lapse rates (500 mb temps around -17 to -16 C) will support MUCAPE around 1000-2000 J/kg. Strong deep layer flow with effective shear magnitudes greater than 35 kt will likewise foster organized convection. An elevated line of convection, perhaps mixed with some cellular elements, will sweep across south-central/southeast KS during the evening to overnight hours. Initial convection within the first couple of hours will pose a greater risk for large hail if storm mode can maintain cellular characteristics. Otherwise, some risk for isolated damaging gusts also will be possible even with elevated storm given strong low-level flow and restively quick storm motion. While the elevated nature of convection is expected to limit tornado potential across Kansas, low-level wind profiles are quite favorable for rotation. While a brief spin-up cannot be ruled out, the overall tornado risk is expected to remain secondary to large hail and strong gust potential. ..Leitman/Guyer.. 03/04/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...TOP...ICT...DDC... LAT...LON 37019924 38089885 38289840 38429736 38399619 37899546 37009539 37019924 Read more

SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0658 PM CST Mon Mar 03 2025 Valid 040100Z - 041200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM CENTRAL OKLAHOMA SOUTHWARD INTO NORTH TEXAS... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorms are forecast to develop across parts of the southern and central Plains this evening, and continue to increase overnight. A few tornadoes, damaging wind gusts, and large hail are all possible. ...Kansas/Oklahoma/Texas... Mid-level short-wave troughing -- on the southern periphery of a Four Corners area upper low -- will continue to shift eastward across the southern Rockies and into the central and southern Plains tonight. An associated cold front now over the central and southern High Plains will likewise advance eastward through the end of the period. Ahead of this system, low-level warm/moist advection continues, on strong southeasterly low-level flow. This is resulting in gradual warm-sector destabilization, with an axis of around 1000 J/kg mixed-layer CAPE now evident across portions of western Oklahoma and western North Texas ahead of the front. Over the next couple of hours, storm development is expected to occur -- with storms likely to be slightly elevated initially. Large hail would likely be the primary threat with the initial storms. With time, convection is expected to grow upscale linearly, as the front advances into a steadily destabilizing warm sector. Storms should become increasingly surface-based with time, evolving into an organized/semi-continuous frontal band. By the latter several hours of the period, sufficient surface-based CAPE combined with strong low-level shear, suggests stronger/rotating updrafts within the predominant more linear storm mode, supporting an increase in potential for damaging wind gusts and a few tornadoes through the end of the period. ..Goss.. 03/04/2025 Read more

SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0658 PM CST Mon Mar 03 2025 Valid 040100Z - 041200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM CENTRAL OKLAHOMA SOUTHWARD INTO NORTH TEXAS... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorms are forecast to develop across parts of the southern and central Plains this evening, and continue to increase overnight. A few tornadoes, damaging wind gusts, and large hail are all possible. ...Kansas/Oklahoma/Texas... Mid-level short-wave troughing -- on the southern periphery of a Four Corners area upper low -- will continue to shift eastward across the southern Rockies and into the central and southern Plains tonight. An associated cold front now over the central and southern High Plains will likewise advance eastward through the end of the period. Ahead of this system, low-level warm/moist advection continues, on strong southeasterly low-level flow. This is resulting in gradual warm-sector destabilization, with an axis of around 1000 J/kg mixed-layer CAPE now evident across portions of western Oklahoma and western North Texas ahead of the front. Over the next couple of hours, storm development is expected to occur -- with storms likely to be slightly elevated initially. Large hail would likely be the primary threat with the initial storms. With time, convection is expected to grow upscale linearly, as the front advances into a steadily destabilizing warm sector. Storms should become increasingly surface-based with time, evolving into an organized/semi-continuous frontal band. By the latter several hours of the period, sufficient surface-based CAPE combined with strong low-level shear, suggests stronger/rotating updrafts within the predominant more linear storm mode, supporting an increase in potential for damaging wind gusts and a few tornadoes through the end of the period. ..Goss.. 03/04/2025 Read more

SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0658 PM CST Mon Mar 03 2025 Valid 040100Z - 041200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM CENTRAL OKLAHOMA SOUTHWARD INTO NORTH TEXAS... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorms are forecast to develop across parts of the southern and central Plains this evening, and continue to increase overnight. A few tornadoes, damaging wind gusts, and large hail are all possible. ...Kansas/Oklahoma/Texas... Mid-level short-wave troughing -- on the southern periphery of a Four Corners area upper low -- will continue to shift eastward across the southern Rockies and into the central and southern Plains tonight. An associated cold front now over the central and southern High Plains will likewise advance eastward through the end of the period. Ahead of this system, low-level warm/moist advection continues, on strong southeasterly low-level flow. This is resulting in gradual warm-sector destabilization, with an axis of around 1000 J/kg mixed-layer CAPE now evident across portions of western Oklahoma and western North Texas ahead of the front. Over the next couple of hours, storm development is expected to occur -- with storms likely to be slightly elevated initially. Large hail would likely be the primary threat with the initial storms. With time, convection is expected to grow upscale linearly, as the front advances into a steadily destabilizing warm sector. Storms should become increasingly surface-based with time, evolving into an organized/semi-continuous frontal band. By the latter several hours of the period, sufficient surface-based CAPE combined with strong low-level shear, suggests stronger/rotating updrafts within the predominant more linear storm mode, supporting an increase in potential for damaging wind gusts and a few tornadoes through the end of the period. ..Goss.. 03/04/2025 Read more

SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0658 PM CST Mon Mar 03 2025 Valid 040100Z - 041200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM CENTRAL OKLAHOMA SOUTHWARD INTO NORTH TEXAS... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorms are forecast to develop across parts of the southern and central Plains this evening, and continue to increase overnight. A few tornadoes, damaging wind gusts, and large hail are all possible. ...Kansas/Oklahoma/Texas... Mid-level short-wave troughing -- on the southern periphery of a Four Corners area upper low -- will continue to shift eastward across the southern Rockies and into the central and southern Plains tonight. An associated cold front now over the central and southern High Plains will likewise advance eastward through the end of the period. Ahead of this system, low-level warm/moist advection continues, on strong southeasterly low-level flow. This is resulting in gradual warm-sector destabilization, with an axis of around 1000 J/kg mixed-layer CAPE now evident across portions of western Oklahoma and western North Texas ahead of the front. Over the next couple of hours, storm development is expected to occur -- with storms likely to be slightly elevated initially. Large hail would likely be the primary threat with the initial storms. With time, convection is expected to grow upscale linearly, as the front advances into a steadily destabilizing warm sector. Storms should become increasingly surface-based with time, evolving into an organized/semi-continuous frontal band. By the latter several hours of the period, sufficient surface-based CAPE combined with strong low-level shear, suggests stronger/rotating updrafts within the predominant more linear storm mode, supporting an increase in potential for damaging wind gusts and a few tornadoes through the end of the period. ..Goss.. 03/04/2025 Read more

SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0658 PM CST Mon Mar 03 2025 Valid 040100Z - 041200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM CENTRAL OKLAHOMA SOUTHWARD INTO NORTH TEXAS... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorms are forecast to develop across parts of the southern and central Plains this evening, and continue to increase overnight. A few tornadoes, damaging wind gusts, and large hail are all possible. ...Kansas/Oklahoma/Texas... Mid-level short-wave troughing -- on the southern periphery of a Four Corners area upper low -- will continue to shift eastward across the southern Rockies and into the central and southern Plains tonight. An associated cold front now over the central and southern High Plains will likewise advance eastward through the end of the period. Ahead of this system, low-level warm/moist advection continues, on strong southeasterly low-level flow. This is resulting in gradual warm-sector destabilization, with an axis of around 1000 J/kg mixed-layer CAPE now evident across portions of western Oklahoma and western North Texas ahead of the front. Over the next couple of hours, storm development is expected to occur -- with storms likely to be slightly elevated initially. Large hail would likely be the primary threat with the initial storms. With time, convection is expected to grow upscale linearly, as the front advances into a steadily destabilizing warm sector. Storms should become increasingly surface-based with time, evolving into an organized/semi-continuous frontal band. By the latter several hours of the period, sufficient surface-based CAPE combined with strong low-level shear, suggests stronger/rotating updrafts within the predominant more linear storm mode, supporting an increase in potential for damaging wind gusts and a few tornadoes through the end of the period. ..Goss.. 03/04/2025 Read more

SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0658 PM CST Mon Mar 03 2025 Valid 040100Z - 041200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM CENTRAL OKLAHOMA SOUTHWARD INTO NORTH TEXAS... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorms are forecast to develop across parts of the southern and central Plains this evening, and continue to increase overnight. A few tornadoes, damaging wind gusts, and large hail are all possible. ...Kansas/Oklahoma/Texas... Mid-level short-wave troughing -- on the southern periphery of a Four Corners area upper low -- will continue to shift eastward across the southern Rockies and into the central and southern Plains tonight. An associated cold front now over the central and southern High Plains will likewise advance eastward through the end of the period. Ahead of this system, low-level warm/moist advection continues, on strong southeasterly low-level flow. This is resulting in gradual warm-sector destabilization, with an axis of around 1000 J/kg mixed-layer CAPE now evident across portions of western Oklahoma and western North Texas ahead of the front. Over the next couple of hours, storm development is expected to occur -- with storms likely to be slightly elevated initially. Large hail would likely be the primary threat with the initial storms. With time, convection is expected to grow upscale linearly, as the front advances into a steadily destabilizing warm sector. Storms should become increasingly surface-based with time, evolving into an organized/semi-continuous frontal band. By the latter several hours of the period, sufficient surface-based CAPE combined with strong low-level shear, suggests stronger/rotating updrafts within the predominant more linear storm mode, supporting an increase in potential for damaging wind gusts and a few tornadoes through the end of the period. ..Goss.. 03/04/2025 Read more

SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0658 PM CST Mon Mar 03 2025 Valid 040100Z - 041200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM CENTRAL OKLAHOMA SOUTHWARD INTO NORTH TEXAS... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorms are forecast to develop across parts of the southern and central Plains this evening, and continue to increase overnight. A few tornadoes, damaging wind gusts, and large hail are all possible. ...Kansas/Oklahoma/Texas... Mid-level short-wave troughing -- on the southern periphery of a Four Corners area upper low -- will continue to shift eastward across the southern Rockies and into the central and southern Plains tonight. An associated cold front now over the central and southern High Plains will likewise advance eastward through the end of the period. Ahead of this system, low-level warm/moist advection continues, on strong southeasterly low-level flow. This is resulting in gradual warm-sector destabilization, with an axis of around 1000 J/kg mixed-layer CAPE now evident across portions of western Oklahoma and western North Texas ahead of the front. Over the next couple of hours, storm development is expected to occur -- with storms likely to be slightly elevated initially. Large hail would likely be the primary threat with the initial storms. With time, convection is expected to grow upscale linearly, as the front advances into a steadily destabilizing warm sector. Storms should become increasingly surface-based with time, evolving into an organized/semi-continuous frontal band. By the latter several hours of the period, sufficient surface-based CAPE combined with strong low-level shear, suggests stronger/rotating updrafts within the predominant more linear storm mode, supporting an increase in potential for damaging wind gusts and a few tornadoes through the end of the period. ..Goss.. 03/04/2025 Read more

SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0658 PM CST Mon Mar 03 2025 Valid 040100Z - 041200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM CENTRAL OKLAHOMA SOUTHWARD INTO NORTH TEXAS... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorms are forecast to develop across parts of the southern and central Plains this evening, and continue to increase overnight. A few tornadoes, damaging wind gusts, and large hail are all possible. ...Kansas/Oklahoma/Texas... Mid-level short-wave troughing -- on the southern periphery of a Four Corners area upper low -- will continue to shift eastward across the southern Rockies and into the central and southern Plains tonight. An associated cold front now over the central and southern High Plains will likewise advance eastward through the end of the period. Ahead of this system, low-level warm/moist advection continues, on strong southeasterly low-level flow. This is resulting in gradual warm-sector destabilization, with an axis of around 1000 J/kg mixed-layer CAPE now evident across portions of western Oklahoma and western North Texas ahead of the front. Over the next couple of hours, storm development is expected to occur -- with storms likely to be slightly elevated initially. Large hail would likely be the primary threat with the initial storms. With time, convection is expected to grow upscale linearly, as the front advances into a steadily destabilizing warm sector. Storms should become increasingly surface-based with time, evolving into an organized/semi-continuous frontal band. By the latter several hours of the period, sufficient surface-based CAPE combined with strong low-level shear, suggests stronger/rotating updrafts within the predominant more linear storm mode, supporting an increase in potential for damaging wind gusts and a few tornadoes through the end of the period. ..Goss.. 03/04/2025 Read more

SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0658 PM CST Mon Mar 03 2025 Valid 040100Z - 041200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM CENTRAL OKLAHOMA SOUTHWARD INTO NORTH TEXAS... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorms are forecast to develop across parts of the southern and central Plains this evening, and continue to increase overnight. A few tornadoes, damaging wind gusts, and large hail are all possible. ...Kansas/Oklahoma/Texas... Mid-level short-wave troughing -- on the southern periphery of a Four Corners area upper low -- will continue to shift eastward across the southern Rockies and into the central and southern Plains tonight. An associated cold front now over the central and southern High Plains will likewise advance eastward through the end of the period. Ahead of this system, low-level warm/moist advection continues, on strong southeasterly low-level flow. This is resulting in gradual warm-sector destabilization, with an axis of around 1000 J/kg mixed-layer CAPE now evident across portions of western Oklahoma and western North Texas ahead of the front. Over the next couple of hours, storm development is expected to occur -- with storms likely to be slightly elevated initially. Large hail would likely be the primary threat with the initial storms. With time, convection is expected to grow upscale linearly, as the front advances into a steadily destabilizing warm sector. Storms should become increasingly surface-based with time, evolving into an organized/semi-continuous frontal band. By the latter several hours of the period, sufficient surface-based CAPE combined with strong low-level shear, suggests stronger/rotating updrafts within the predominant more linear storm mode, supporting an increase in potential for damaging wind gusts and a few tornadoes through the end of the period. ..Goss.. 03/04/2025 Read more

SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0658 PM CST Mon Mar 03 2025 Valid 040100Z - 041200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM CENTRAL OKLAHOMA SOUTHWARD INTO NORTH TEXAS... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorms are forecast to develop across parts of the southern and central Plains this evening, and continue to increase overnight. A few tornadoes, damaging wind gusts, and large hail are all possible. ...Kansas/Oklahoma/Texas... Mid-level short-wave troughing -- on the southern periphery of a Four Corners area upper low -- will continue to shift eastward across the southern Rockies and into the central and southern Plains tonight. An associated cold front now over the central and southern High Plains will likewise advance eastward through the end of the period. Ahead of this system, low-level warm/moist advection continues, on strong southeasterly low-level flow. This is resulting in gradual warm-sector destabilization, with an axis of around 1000 J/kg mixed-layer CAPE now evident across portions of western Oklahoma and western North Texas ahead of the front. Over the next couple of hours, storm development is expected to occur -- with storms likely to be slightly elevated initially. Large hail would likely be the primary threat with the initial storms. With time, convection is expected to grow upscale linearly, as the front advances into a steadily destabilizing warm sector. Storms should become increasingly surface-based with time, evolving into an organized/semi-continuous frontal band. By the latter several hours of the period, sufficient surface-based CAPE combined with strong low-level shear, suggests stronger/rotating updrafts within the predominant more linear storm mode, supporting an increase in potential for damaging wind gusts and a few tornadoes through the end of the period. ..Goss.. 03/04/2025 Read more

SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0658 PM CST Mon Mar 03 2025 Valid 040100Z - 041200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM CENTRAL OKLAHOMA SOUTHWARD INTO NORTH TEXAS... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorms are forecast to develop across parts of the southern and central Plains this evening, and continue to increase overnight. A few tornadoes, damaging wind gusts, and large hail are all possible. ...Kansas/Oklahoma/Texas... Mid-level short-wave troughing -- on the southern periphery of a Four Corners area upper low -- will continue to shift eastward across the southern Rockies and into the central and southern Plains tonight. An associated cold front now over the central and southern High Plains will likewise advance eastward through the end of the period. Ahead of this system, low-level warm/moist advection continues, on strong southeasterly low-level flow. This is resulting in gradual warm-sector destabilization, with an axis of around 1000 J/kg mixed-layer CAPE now evident across portions of western Oklahoma and western North Texas ahead of the front. Over the next couple of hours, storm development is expected to occur -- with storms likely to be slightly elevated initially. Large hail would likely be the primary threat with the initial storms. With time, convection is expected to grow upscale linearly, as the front advances into a steadily destabilizing warm sector. Storms should become increasingly surface-based with time, evolving into an organized/semi-continuous frontal band. By the latter several hours of the period, sufficient surface-based CAPE combined with strong low-level shear, suggests stronger/rotating updrafts within the predominant more linear storm mode, supporting an increase in potential for damaging wind gusts and a few tornadoes through the end of the period. ..Goss.. 03/04/2025 Read more

SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0658 PM CST Mon Mar 03 2025 Valid 040100Z - 041200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM CENTRAL OKLAHOMA SOUTHWARD INTO NORTH TEXAS... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorms are forecast to develop across parts of the southern and central Plains this evening, and continue to increase overnight. A few tornadoes, damaging wind gusts, and large hail are all possible. ...Kansas/Oklahoma/Texas... Mid-level short-wave troughing -- on the southern periphery of a Four Corners area upper low -- will continue to shift eastward across the southern Rockies and into the central and southern Plains tonight. An associated cold front now over the central and southern High Plains will likewise advance eastward through the end of the period. Ahead of this system, low-level warm/moist advection continues, on strong southeasterly low-level flow. This is resulting in gradual warm-sector destabilization, with an axis of around 1000 J/kg mixed-layer CAPE now evident across portions of western Oklahoma and western North Texas ahead of the front. Over the next couple of hours, storm development is expected to occur -- with storms likely to be slightly elevated initially. Large hail would likely be the primary threat with the initial storms. With time, convection is expected to grow upscale linearly, as the front advances into a steadily destabilizing warm sector. Storms should become increasingly surface-based with time, evolving into an organized/semi-continuous frontal band. By the latter several hours of the period, sufficient surface-based CAPE combined with strong low-level shear, suggests stronger/rotating updrafts within the predominant more linear storm mode, supporting an increase in potential for damaging wind gusts and a few tornadoes through the end of the period. ..Goss.. 03/04/2025 Read more

SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0658 PM CST Mon Mar 03 2025 Valid 040100Z - 041200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM CENTRAL OKLAHOMA SOUTHWARD INTO NORTH TEXAS... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorms are forecast to develop across parts of the southern and central Plains this evening, and continue to increase overnight. A few tornadoes, damaging wind gusts, and large hail are all possible. ...Kansas/Oklahoma/Texas... Mid-level short-wave troughing -- on the southern periphery of a Four Corners area upper low -- will continue to shift eastward across the southern Rockies and into the central and southern Plains tonight. An associated cold front now over the central and southern High Plains will likewise advance eastward through the end of the period. Ahead of this system, low-level warm/moist advection continues, on strong southeasterly low-level flow. This is resulting in gradual warm-sector destabilization, with an axis of around 1000 J/kg mixed-layer CAPE now evident across portions of western Oklahoma and western North Texas ahead of the front. Over the next couple of hours, storm development is expected to occur -- with storms likely to be slightly elevated initially. Large hail would likely be the primary threat with the initial storms. With time, convection is expected to grow upscale linearly, as the front advances into a steadily destabilizing warm sector. Storms should become increasingly surface-based with time, evolving into an organized/semi-continuous frontal band. By the latter several hours of the period, sufficient surface-based CAPE combined with strong low-level shear, suggests stronger/rotating updrafts within the predominant more linear storm mode, supporting an increase in potential for damaging wind gusts and a few tornadoes through the end of the period. ..Goss.. 03/04/2025 Read more

SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0658 PM CST Mon Mar 03 2025 Valid 040100Z - 041200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM CENTRAL OKLAHOMA SOUTHWARD INTO NORTH TEXAS... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorms are forecast to develop across parts of the southern and central Plains this evening, and continue to increase overnight. A few tornadoes, damaging wind gusts, and large hail are all possible. ...Kansas/Oklahoma/Texas... Mid-level short-wave troughing -- on the southern periphery of a Four Corners area upper low -- will continue to shift eastward across the southern Rockies and into the central and southern Plains tonight. An associated cold front now over the central and southern High Plains will likewise advance eastward through the end of the period. Ahead of this system, low-level warm/moist advection continues, on strong southeasterly low-level flow. This is resulting in gradual warm-sector destabilization, with an axis of around 1000 J/kg mixed-layer CAPE now evident across portions of western Oklahoma and western North Texas ahead of the front. Over the next couple of hours, storm development is expected to occur -- with storms likely to be slightly elevated initially. Large hail would likely be the primary threat with the initial storms. With time, convection is expected to grow upscale linearly, as the front advances into a steadily destabilizing warm sector. Storms should become increasingly surface-based with time, evolving into an organized/semi-continuous frontal band. By the latter several hours of the period, sufficient surface-based CAPE combined with strong low-level shear, suggests stronger/rotating updrafts within the predominant more linear storm mode, supporting an increase in potential for damaging wind gusts and a few tornadoes through the end of the period. ..Goss.. 03/04/2025 Read more

No watches are valid as of Mon Mar 3 22:37:02 UTC 2025.

No Mesoscale Discussions are in effect as of Mon Mar 3 22:37:02 UTC 2025.

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0356 PM CST Mon Mar 03 2025 Valid 051200Z - 111200Z An active weather pattern will continue across the CONUS, resulting in multiple days of potentially enhanced fire-weather conditions later this week across various portions of the Southern Plains and Southwest. ...Southern Plains and Southwest... A highly amplified and progressive mid-level flow pattern is expected to continue over much of the CONUS through the extended forecast period. Shortwave ridging will develop and quickly move eastward over the Southwest D3/Wednesday. To the west of the ridge, a strong trough will move over the Southwest and Southern Plains D4/Thursday and D5/Friday. Several days of very dry and windy conditions are possible over eastern NM and west TX as a lee low deepens over CO. Overlapping with dry fuels, widespread critical fire-weather conditions are likely to end the workweek and into the weekend. Fire-weather concerns may continue into D6/Saturday and D7/Sunday as the main trough moves eastward and a second trough moves in from the west. Strong northwesterly flow is forecast to develop over the southern Plains as a second surface low intensifies. Confidence in sustained critical conditions is lower as the trough trends lower latitude and cooler conditions may develop over the plains. However, the presence of strong winds and dry fuels suggests some fire potential. Fire-weather concerns likely continue into early next week as progressive and amplified mid-level flow persists over the CONUS. Dry condition and strong winds look likely to continue over much of the southern CONUS. ..Lyons.. 03/03/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0356 PM CST Mon Mar 03 2025 Valid 051200Z - 111200Z An active weather pattern will continue across the CONUS, resulting in multiple days of potentially enhanced fire-weather conditions later this week across various portions of the Southern Plains and Southwest. ...Southern Plains and Southwest... A highly amplified and progressive mid-level flow pattern is expected to continue over much of the CONUS through the extended forecast period. Shortwave ridging will develop and quickly move eastward over the Southwest D3/Wednesday. To the west of the ridge, a strong trough will move over the Southwest and Southern Plains D4/Thursday and D5/Friday. Several days of very dry and windy conditions are possible over eastern NM and west TX as a lee low deepens over CO. Overlapping with dry fuels, widespread critical fire-weather conditions are likely to end the workweek and into the weekend. Fire-weather concerns may continue into D6/Saturday and D7/Sunday as the main trough moves eastward and a second trough moves in from the west. Strong northwesterly flow is forecast to develop over the southern Plains as a second surface low intensifies. Confidence in sustained critical conditions is lower as the trough trends lower latitude and cooler conditions may develop over the plains. However, the presence of strong winds and dry fuels suggests some fire potential. Fire-weather concerns likely continue into early next week as progressive and amplified mid-level flow persists over the CONUS. Dry condition and strong winds look likely to continue over much of the southern CONUS. ..Lyons.. 03/03/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0356 PM CST Mon Mar 03 2025 Valid 051200Z - 111200Z An active weather pattern will continue across the CONUS, resulting in multiple days of potentially enhanced fire-weather conditions later this week across various portions of the Southern Plains and Southwest. ...Southern Plains and Southwest... A highly amplified and progressive mid-level flow pattern is expected to continue over much of the CONUS through the extended forecast period. Shortwave ridging will develop and quickly move eastward over the Southwest D3/Wednesday. To the west of the ridge, a strong trough will move over the Southwest and Southern Plains D4/Thursday and D5/Friday. Several days of very dry and windy conditions are possible over eastern NM and west TX as a lee low deepens over CO. Overlapping with dry fuels, widespread critical fire-weather conditions are likely to end the workweek and into the weekend. Fire-weather concerns may continue into D6/Saturday and D7/Sunday as the main trough moves eastward and a second trough moves in from the west. Strong northwesterly flow is forecast to develop over the southern Plains as a second surface low intensifies. Confidence in sustained critical conditions is lower as the trough trends lower latitude and cooler conditions may develop over the plains. However, the presence of strong winds and dry fuels suggests some fire potential. Fire-weather concerns likely continue into early next week as progressive and amplified mid-level flow persists over the CONUS. Dry condition and strong winds look likely to continue over much of the southern CONUS. ..Lyons.. 03/03/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more