Severe Storms

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1028 AM CST Wed Mar 05 2025 Valid 051630Z - 061200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS SOUTHEAST VIRGINIA AND THE EASTERN CAROLINAS... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms capable of producing scattered damaging-wind gusts and a few tornadoes are possible today across parts of the eastern Carolinas into southeast Virginia. Other strong to severe storms may occur from the Allegheny Plateau into the Mid Atlantic. ...VA and the Carolinas... A strongly forced convective line continues to push eastward across the central Carolinas and south-central VA. Thus far, updraft depth has been limited by modest buoyancy, as evidenced by the lack of lightning within the line. However, the downstream airmass is expected to undergo modification as low 60s dewpoints advect northward just ahead of the line. This increased moisture should lead to greater buoyancy, and the potential for deeper, more persistent updrafts within the line. As storms deepen, the very strong low to deep-layer shear (i.e. 0-1 km bulk shear over 50 kt and 0-6 km bulk shear over 70 kt) in place over the region will support storm organization mainly in the form of bowing structures/mesovortices. An attendant threat for tornadoes will probably develop with the more persistent/long-lived embedded circulations in addition to wind damage focused near inflections and bowing segments of the convective line. Additional details for this region can be found in recently issued MCD #0149. ...Upper OH Valley/PA vicinity... Recent surface analysis places a deep, occluded low (i.e. 980 mb) over southern Lake Michigan. An occluded front extends east-southeastward from this low to a triple point in the western WV Panhandle/northern VA vicinity. A cold front also extends south-southeastward from this low across western IN before arcing more southerly across the TN Valley. Visible satellite indicates that a mid-level dry-slot has contributed to some clearing over OH, in the vicinity of the occluded front. This should allow for some modest daytime heating, with the resultant steepening of the low-level lapse rates. This will occur beneath cold mid-level temperatures, contributing to fairly steep lapse rates profile throughout much of the troposphere. Some low to mid-level moistening is also possible as large-scale forcing for ascent attendant to the approaching upper low persists, resulting in modest buoyancy (i.e. MLCAPE less than 500 J/kg) across the region ahead of the cold front. Thunderstorm development appears possible as the front interacts with this airmass, and vertically veering wind profiles with effective shear values near 40 kt will support the potential isolated low-topped transient supercells and perhaps bowing linear segments. ..Mosier/Thornton.. 03/05/2025 Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1028 AM CST Wed Mar 05 2025 Valid 051630Z - 061200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS SOUTHEAST VIRGINIA AND THE EASTERN CAROLINAS... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms capable of producing scattered damaging-wind gusts and a few tornadoes are possible today across parts of the eastern Carolinas into southeast Virginia. Other strong to severe storms may occur from the Allegheny Plateau into the Mid Atlantic. ...VA and the Carolinas... A strongly forced convective line continues to push eastward across the central Carolinas and south-central VA. Thus far, updraft depth has been limited by modest buoyancy, as evidenced by the lack of lightning within the line. However, the downstream airmass is expected to undergo modification as low 60s dewpoints advect northward just ahead of the line. This increased moisture should lead to greater buoyancy, and the potential for deeper, more persistent updrafts within the line. As storms deepen, the very strong low to deep-layer shear (i.e. 0-1 km bulk shear over 50 kt and 0-6 km bulk shear over 70 kt) in place over the region will support storm organization mainly in the form of bowing structures/mesovortices. An attendant threat for tornadoes will probably develop with the more persistent/long-lived embedded circulations in addition to wind damage focused near inflections and bowing segments of the convective line. Additional details for this region can be found in recently issued MCD #0149. ...Upper OH Valley/PA vicinity... Recent surface analysis places a deep, occluded low (i.e. 980 mb) over southern Lake Michigan. An occluded front extends east-southeastward from this low to a triple point in the western WV Panhandle/northern VA vicinity. A cold front also extends south-southeastward from this low across western IN before arcing more southerly across the TN Valley. Visible satellite indicates that a mid-level dry-slot has contributed to some clearing over OH, in the vicinity of the occluded front. This should allow for some modest daytime heating, with the resultant steepening of the low-level lapse rates. This will occur beneath cold mid-level temperatures, contributing to fairly steep lapse rates profile throughout much of the troposphere. Some low to mid-level moistening is also possible as large-scale forcing for ascent attendant to the approaching upper low persists, resulting in modest buoyancy (i.e. MLCAPE less than 500 J/kg) across the region ahead of the cold front. Thunderstorm development appears possible as the front interacts with this airmass, and vertically veering wind profiles with effective shear values near 40 kt will support the potential isolated low-topped transient supercells and perhaps bowing linear segments. ..Mosier/Thornton.. 03/05/2025 Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1028 AM CST Wed Mar 05 2025 Valid 051630Z - 061200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS SOUTHEAST VIRGINIA AND THE EASTERN CAROLINAS... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms capable of producing scattered damaging-wind gusts and a few tornadoes are possible today across parts of the eastern Carolinas into southeast Virginia. Other strong to severe storms may occur from the Allegheny Plateau into the Mid Atlantic. ...VA and the Carolinas... A strongly forced convective line continues to push eastward across the central Carolinas and south-central VA. Thus far, updraft depth has been limited by modest buoyancy, as evidenced by the lack of lightning within the line. However, the downstream airmass is expected to undergo modification as low 60s dewpoints advect northward just ahead of the line. This increased moisture should lead to greater buoyancy, and the potential for deeper, more persistent updrafts within the line. As storms deepen, the very strong low to deep-layer shear (i.e. 0-1 km bulk shear over 50 kt and 0-6 km bulk shear over 70 kt) in place over the region will support storm organization mainly in the form of bowing structures/mesovortices. An attendant threat for tornadoes will probably develop with the more persistent/long-lived embedded circulations in addition to wind damage focused near inflections and bowing segments of the convective line. Additional details for this region can be found in recently issued MCD #0149. ...Upper OH Valley/PA vicinity... Recent surface analysis places a deep, occluded low (i.e. 980 mb) over southern Lake Michigan. An occluded front extends east-southeastward from this low to a triple point in the western WV Panhandle/northern VA vicinity. A cold front also extends south-southeastward from this low across western IN before arcing more southerly across the TN Valley. Visible satellite indicates that a mid-level dry-slot has contributed to some clearing over OH, in the vicinity of the occluded front. This should allow for some modest daytime heating, with the resultant steepening of the low-level lapse rates. This will occur beneath cold mid-level temperatures, contributing to fairly steep lapse rates profile throughout much of the troposphere. Some low to mid-level moistening is also possible as large-scale forcing for ascent attendant to the approaching upper low persists, resulting in modest buoyancy (i.e. MLCAPE less than 500 J/kg) across the region ahead of the cold front. Thunderstorm development appears possible as the front interacts with this airmass, and vertically veering wind profiles with effective shear values near 40 kt will support the potential isolated low-topped transient supercells and perhaps bowing linear segments. ..Mosier/Thornton.. 03/05/2025 Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1028 AM CST Wed Mar 05 2025 Valid 051630Z - 061200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS SOUTHEAST VIRGINIA AND THE EASTERN CAROLINAS... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms capable of producing scattered damaging-wind gusts and a few tornadoes are possible today across parts of the eastern Carolinas into southeast Virginia. Other strong to severe storms may occur from the Allegheny Plateau into the Mid Atlantic. ...VA and the Carolinas... A strongly forced convective line continues to push eastward across the central Carolinas and south-central VA. Thus far, updraft depth has been limited by modest buoyancy, as evidenced by the lack of lightning within the line. However, the downstream airmass is expected to undergo modification as low 60s dewpoints advect northward just ahead of the line. This increased moisture should lead to greater buoyancy, and the potential for deeper, more persistent updrafts within the line. As storms deepen, the very strong low to deep-layer shear (i.e. 0-1 km bulk shear over 50 kt and 0-6 km bulk shear over 70 kt) in place over the region will support storm organization mainly in the form of bowing structures/mesovortices. An attendant threat for tornadoes will probably develop with the more persistent/long-lived embedded circulations in addition to wind damage focused near inflections and bowing segments of the convective line. Additional details for this region can be found in recently issued MCD #0149. ...Upper OH Valley/PA vicinity... Recent surface analysis places a deep, occluded low (i.e. 980 mb) over southern Lake Michigan. An occluded front extends east-southeastward from this low to a triple point in the western WV Panhandle/northern VA vicinity. A cold front also extends south-southeastward from this low across western IN before arcing more southerly across the TN Valley. Visible satellite indicates that a mid-level dry-slot has contributed to some clearing over OH, in the vicinity of the occluded front. This should allow for some modest daytime heating, with the resultant steepening of the low-level lapse rates. This will occur beneath cold mid-level temperatures, contributing to fairly steep lapse rates profile throughout much of the troposphere. Some low to mid-level moistening is also possible as large-scale forcing for ascent attendant to the approaching upper low persists, resulting in modest buoyancy (i.e. MLCAPE less than 500 J/kg) across the region ahead of the cold front. Thunderstorm development appears possible as the front interacts with this airmass, and vertically veering wind profiles with effective shear values near 40 kt will support the potential isolated low-topped transient supercells and perhaps bowing linear segments. ..Mosier/Thornton.. 03/05/2025 Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1028 AM CST Wed Mar 05 2025 Valid 051630Z - 061200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS SOUTHEAST VIRGINIA AND THE EASTERN CAROLINAS... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms capable of producing scattered damaging-wind gusts and a few tornadoes are possible today across parts of the eastern Carolinas into southeast Virginia. Other strong to severe storms may occur from the Allegheny Plateau into the Mid Atlantic. ...VA and the Carolinas... A strongly forced convective line continues to push eastward across the central Carolinas and south-central VA. Thus far, updraft depth has been limited by modest buoyancy, as evidenced by the lack of lightning within the line. However, the downstream airmass is expected to undergo modification as low 60s dewpoints advect northward just ahead of the line. This increased moisture should lead to greater buoyancy, and the potential for deeper, more persistent updrafts within the line. As storms deepen, the very strong low to deep-layer shear (i.e. 0-1 km bulk shear over 50 kt and 0-6 km bulk shear over 70 kt) in place over the region will support storm organization mainly in the form of bowing structures/mesovortices. An attendant threat for tornadoes will probably develop with the more persistent/long-lived embedded circulations in addition to wind damage focused near inflections and bowing segments of the convective line. Additional details for this region can be found in recently issued MCD #0149. ...Upper OH Valley/PA vicinity... Recent surface analysis places a deep, occluded low (i.e. 980 mb) over southern Lake Michigan. An occluded front extends east-southeastward from this low to a triple point in the western WV Panhandle/northern VA vicinity. A cold front also extends south-southeastward from this low across western IN before arcing more southerly across the TN Valley. Visible satellite indicates that a mid-level dry-slot has contributed to some clearing over OH, in the vicinity of the occluded front. This should allow for some modest daytime heating, with the resultant steepening of the low-level lapse rates. This will occur beneath cold mid-level temperatures, contributing to fairly steep lapse rates profile throughout much of the troposphere. Some low to mid-level moistening is also possible as large-scale forcing for ascent attendant to the approaching upper low persists, resulting in modest buoyancy (i.e. MLCAPE less than 500 J/kg) across the region ahead of the cold front. Thunderstorm development appears possible as the front interacts with this airmass, and vertically veering wind profiles with effective shear values near 40 kt will support the potential isolated low-topped transient supercells and perhaps bowing linear segments. ..Mosier/Thornton.. 03/05/2025 Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1028 AM CST Wed Mar 05 2025 Valid 051630Z - 061200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS SOUTHEAST VIRGINIA AND THE EASTERN CAROLINAS... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms capable of producing scattered damaging-wind gusts and a few tornadoes are possible today across parts of the eastern Carolinas into southeast Virginia. Other strong to severe storms may occur from the Allegheny Plateau into the Mid Atlantic. ...VA and the Carolinas... A strongly forced convective line continues to push eastward across the central Carolinas and south-central VA. Thus far, updraft depth has been limited by modest buoyancy, as evidenced by the lack of lightning within the line. However, the downstream airmass is expected to undergo modification as low 60s dewpoints advect northward just ahead of the line. This increased moisture should lead to greater buoyancy, and the potential for deeper, more persistent updrafts within the line. As storms deepen, the very strong low to deep-layer shear (i.e. 0-1 km bulk shear over 50 kt and 0-6 km bulk shear over 70 kt) in place over the region will support storm organization mainly in the form of bowing structures/mesovortices. An attendant threat for tornadoes will probably develop with the more persistent/long-lived embedded circulations in addition to wind damage focused near inflections and bowing segments of the convective line. Additional details for this region can be found in recently issued MCD #0149. ...Upper OH Valley/PA vicinity... Recent surface analysis places a deep, occluded low (i.e. 980 mb) over southern Lake Michigan. An occluded front extends east-southeastward from this low to a triple point in the western WV Panhandle/northern VA vicinity. A cold front also extends south-southeastward from this low across western IN before arcing more southerly across the TN Valley. Visible satellite indicates that a mid-level dry-slot has contributed to some clearing over OH, in the vicinity of the occluded front. This should allow for some modest daytime heating, with the resultant steepening of the low-level lapse rates. This will occur beneath cold mid-level temperatures, contributing to fairly steep lapse rates profile throughout much of the troposphere. Some low to mid-level moistening is also possible as large-scale forcing for ascent attendant to the approaching upper low persists, resulting in modest buoyancy (i.e. MLCAPE less than 500 J/kg) across the region ahead of the cold front. Thunderstorm development appears possible as the front interacts with this airmass, and vertically veering wind profiles with effective shear values near 40 kt will support the potential isolated low-topped transient supercells and perhaps bowing linear segments. ..Mosier/Thornton.. 03/05/2025 Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1028 AM CST Wed Mar 05 2025 Valid 051630Z - 061200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS SOUTHEAST VIRGINIA AND THE EASTERN CAROLINAS... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms capable of producing scattered damaging-wind gusts and a few tornadoes are possible today across parts of the eastern Carolinas into southeast Virginia. Other strong to severe storms may occur from the Allegheny Plateau into the Mid Atlantic. ...VA and the Carolinas... A strongly forced convective line continues to push eastward across the central Carolinas and south-central VA. Thus far, updraft depth has been limited by modest buoyancy, as evidenced by the lack of lightning within the line. However, the downstream airmass is expected to undergo modification as low 60s dewpoints advect northward just ahead of the line. This increased moisture should lead to greater buoyancy, and the potential for deeper, more persistent updrafts within the line. As storms deepen, the very strong low to deep-layer shear (i.e. 0-1 km bulk shear over 50 kt and 0-6 km bulk shear over 70 kt) in place over the region will support storm organization mainly in the form of bowing structures/mesovortices. An attendant threat for tornadoes will probably develop with the more persistent/long-lived embedded circulations in addition to wind damage focused near inflections and bowing segments of the convective line. Additional details for this region can be found in recently issued MCD #0149. ...Upper OH Valley/PA vicinity... Recent surface analysis places a deep, occluded low (i.e. 980 mb) over southern Lake Michigan. An occluded front extends east-southeastward from this low to a triple point in the western WV Panhandle/northern VA vicinity. A cold front also extends south-southeastward from this low across western IN before arcing more southerly across the TN Valley. Visible satellite indicates that a mid-level dry-slot has contributed to some clearing over OH, in the vicinity of the occluded front. This should allow for some modest daytime heating, with the resultant steepening of the low-level lapse rates. This will occur beneath cold mid-level temperatures, contributing to fairly steep lapse rates profile throughout much of the troposphere. Some low to mid-level moistening is also possible as large-scale forcing for ascent attendant to the approaching upper low persists, resulting in modest buoyancy (i.e. MLCAPE less than 500 J/kg) across the region ahead of the cold front. Thunderstorm development appears possible as the front interacts with this airmass, and vertically veering wind profiles with effective shear values near 40 kt will support the potential isolated low-topped transient supercells and perhaps bowing linear segments. ..Mosier/Thornton.. 03/05/2025 Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1028 AM CST Wed Mar 05 2025 Valid 051630Z - 061200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS SOUTHEAST VIRGINIA AND THE EASTERN CAROLINAS... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms capable of producing scattered damaging-wind gusts and a few tornadoes are possible today across parts of the eastern Carolinas into southeast Virginia. Other strong to severe storms may occur from the Allegheny Plateau into the Mid Atlantic. ...VA and the Carolinas... A strongly forced convective line continues to push eastward across the central Carolinas and south-central VA. Thus far, updraft depth has been limited by modest buoyancy, as evidenced by the lack of lightning within the line. However, the downstream airmass is expected to undergo modification as low 60s dewpoints advect northward just ahead of the line. This increased moisture should lead to greater buoyancy, and the potential for deeper, more persistent updrafts within the line. As storms deepen, the very strong low to deep-layer shear (i.e. 0-1 km bulk shear over 50 kt and 0-6 km bulk shear over 70 kt) in place over the region will support storm organization mainly in the form of bowing structures/mesovortices. An attendant threat for tornadoes will probably develop with the more persistent/long-lived embedded circulations in addition to wind damage focused near inflections and bowing segments of the convective line. Additional details for this region can be found in recently issued MCD #0149. ...Upper OH Valley/PA vicinity... Recent surface analysis places a deep, occluded low (i.e. 980 mb) over southern Lake Michigan. An occluded front extends east-southeastward from this low to a triple point in the western WV Panhandle/northern VA vicinity. A cold front also extends south-southeastward from this low across western IN before arcing more southerly across the TN Valley. Visible satellite indicates that a mid-level dry-slot has contributed to some clearing over OH, in the vicinity of the occluded front. This should allow for some modest daytime heating, with the resultant steepening of the low-level lapse rates. This will occur beneath cold mid-level temperatures, contributing to fairly steep lapse rates profile throughout much of the troposphere. Some low to mid-level moistening is also possible as large-scale forcing for ascent attendant to the approaching upper low persists, resulting in modest buoyancy (i.e. MLCAPE less than 500 J/kg) across the region ahead of the cold front. Thunderstorm development appears possible as the front interacts with this airmass, and vertically veering wind profiles with effective shear values near 40 kt will support the potential isolated low-topped transient supercells and perhaps bowing linear segments. ..Mosier/Thornton.. 03/05/2025 Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1028 AM CST Wed Mar 05 2025 Valid 051630Z - 061200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS SOUTHEAST VIRGINIA AND THE EASTERN CAROLINAS... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms capable of producing scattered damaging-wind gusts and a few tornadoes are possible today across parts of the eastern Carolinas into southeast Virginia. Other strong to severe storms may occur from the Allegheny Plateau into the Mid Atlantic. ...VA and the Carolinas... A strongly forced convective line continues to push eastward across the central Carolinas and south-central VA. Thus far, updraft depth has been limited by modest buoyancy, as evidenced by the lack of lightning within the line. However, the downstream airmass is expected to undergo modification as low 60s dewpoints advect northward just ahead of the line. This increased moisture should lead to greater buoyancy, and the potential for deeper, more persistent updrafts within the line. As storms deepen, the very strong low to deep-layer shear (i.e. 0-1 km bulk shear over 50 kt and 0-6 km bulk shear over 70 kt) in place over the region will support storm organization mainly in the form of bowing structures/mesovortices. An attendant threat for tornadoes will probably develop with the more persistent/long-lived embedded circulations in addition to wind damage focused near inflections and bowing segments of the convective line. Additional details for this region can be found in recently issued MCD #0149. ...Upper OH Valley/PA vicinity... Recent surface analysis places a deep, occluded low (i.e. 980 mb) over southern Lake Michigan. An occluded front extends east-southeastward from this low to a triple point in the western WV Panhandle/northern VA vicinity. A cold front also extends south-southeastward from this low across western IN before arcing more southerly across the TN Valley. Visible satellite indicates that a mid-level dry-slot has contributed to some clearing over OH, in the vicinity of the occluded front. This should allow for some modest daytime heating, with the resultant steepening of the low-level lapse rates. This will occur beneath cold mid-level temperatures, contributing to fairly steep lapse rates profile throughout much of the troposphere. Some low to mid-level moistening is also possible as large-scale forcing for ascent attendant to the approaching upper low persists, resulting in modest buoyancy (i.e. MLCAPE less than 500 J/kg) across the region ahead of the cold front. Thunderstorm development appears possible as the front interacts with this airmass, and vertically veering wind profiles with effective shear values near 40 kt will support the potential isolated low-topped transient supercells and perhaps bowing linear segments. ..Mosier/Thornton.. 03/05/2025 Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1028 AM CST Wed Mar 05 2025 Valid 051630Z - 061200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS SOUTHEAST VIRGINIA AND THE EASTERN CAROLINAS... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms capable of producing scattered damaging-wind gusts and a few tornadoes are possible today across parts of the eastern Carolinas into southeast Virginia. Other strong to severe storms may occur from the Allegheny Plateau into the Mid Atlantic. ...VA and the Carolinas... A strongly forced convective line continues to push eastward across the central Carolinas and south-central VA. Thus far, updraft depth has been limited by modest buoyancy, as evidenced by the lack of lightning within the line. However, the downstream airmass is expected to undergo modification as low 60s dewpoints advect northward just ahead of the line. This increased moisture should lead to greater buoyancy, and the potential for deeper, more persistent updrafts within the line. As storms deepen, the very strong low to deep-layer shear (i.e. 0-1 km bulk shear over 50 kt and 0-6 km bulk shear over 70 kt) in place over the region will support storm organization mainly in the form of bowing structures/mesovortices. An attendant threat for tornadoes will probably develop with the more persistent/long-lived embedded circulations in addition to wind damage focused near inflections and bowing segments of the convective line. Additional details for this region can be found in recently issued MCD #0149. ...Upper OH Valley/PA vicinity... Recent surface analysis places a deep, occluded low (i.e. 980 mb) over southern Lake Michigan. An occluded front extends east-southeastward from this low to a triple point in the western WV Panhandle/northern VA vicinity. A cold front also extends south-southeastward from this low across western IN before arcing more southerly across the TN Valley. Visible satellite indicates that a mid-level dry-slot has contributed to some clearing over OH, in the vicinity of the occluded front. This should allow for some modest daytime heating, with the resultant steepening of the low-level lapse rates. This will occur beneath cold mid-level temperatures, contributing to fairly steep lapse rates profile throughout much of the troposphere. Some low to mid-level moistening is also possible as large-scale forcing for ascent attendant to the approaching upper low persists, resulting in modest buoyancy (i.e. MLCAPE less than 500 J/kg) across the region ahead of the cold front. Thunderstorm development appears possible as the front interacts with this airmass, and vertically veering wind profiles with effective shear values near 40 kt will support the potential isolated low-topped transient supercells and perhaps bowing linear segments. ..Mosier/Thornton.. 03/05/2025 Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1028 AM CST Wed Mar 05 2025 Valid 051630Z - 061200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS SOUTHEAST VIRGINIA AND THE EASTERN CAROLINAS... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms capable of producing scattered damaging-wind gusts and a few tornadoes are possible today across parts of the eastern Carolinas into southeast Virginia. Other strong to severe storms may occur from the Allegheny Plateau into the Mid Atlantic. ...VA and the Carolinas... A strongly forced convective line continues to push eastward across the central Carolinas and south-central VA. Thus far, updraft depth has been limited by modest buoyancy, as evidenced by the lack of lightning within the line. However, the downstream airmass is expected to undergo modification as low 60s dewpoints advect northward just ahead of the line. This increased moisture should lead to greater buoyancy, and the potential for deeper, more persistent updrafts within the line. As storms deepen, the very strong low to deep-layer shear (i.e. 0-1 km bulk shear over 50 kt and 0-6 km bulk shear over 70 kt) in place over the region will support storm organization mainly in the form of bowing structures/mesovortices. An attendant threat for tornadoes will probably develop with the more persistent/long-lived embedded circulations in addition to wind damage focused near inflections and bowing segments of the convective line. Additional details for this region can be found in recently issued MCD #0149. ...Upper OH Valley/PA vicinity... Recent surface analysis places a deep, occluded low (i.e. 980 mb) over southern Lake Michigan. An occluded front extends east-southeastward from this low to a triple point in the western WV Panhandle/northern VA vicinity. A cold front also extends south-southeastward from this low across western IN before arcing more southerly across the TN Valley. Visible satellite indicates that a mid-level dry-slot has contributed to some clearing over OH, in the vicinity of the occluded front. This should allow for some modest daytime heating, with the resultant steepening of the low-level lapse rates. This will occur beneath cold mid-level temperatures, contributing to fairly steep lapse rates profile throughout much of the troposphere. Some low to mid-level moistening is also possible as large-scale forcing for ascent attendant to the approaching upper low persists, resulting in modest buoyancy (i.e. MLCAPE less than 500 J/kg) across the region ahead of the cold front. Thunderstorm development appears possible as the front interacts with this airmass, and vertically veering wind profiles with effective shear values near 40 kt will support the potential isolated low-topped transient supercells and perhaps bowing linear segments. ..Mosier/Thornton.. 03/05/2025 Read more

MD 0148 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY FOR CENTRAL AND NORTHERN FLORIDA
Mesoscale Discussion 0148 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0841 AM CST Wed Mar 05 2025 Areas affected...central and northern Florida Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely Valid 051441Z - 051615Z Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent SUMMARY...Isolated damaging wind gusts are possible through early afternoon across central and northern Florida. DISCUSSION...A remnant squall line is moving across northern Florida this morning. Ahead of this squall line, mid to upper 60s dewpoints are present across the Florida Peninsula. Currently this airmass remains capped, but breaks in the clouds should allow sufficient heating for an uncapped, moderately unstable environment by later this afternoon. The 12Z JAX RAOB sampled a veering wind profile favorable for storm organization including supercells. However, forcing will be the primary limiting factor to a greater severe weather threat. Convergence along the squall line is weak across north Florida. While some height falls will overspread the region through the day, the primary differential vorticity advection corridor will be focused in the Carolinas and Mid-Atlantic. Therefore, a few strong to severe storms may be possible, but the threat should remain too isolated for a watch. ..Bentley/Mosier.. 03/05/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...MLB...TBW...JAX... LAT...LON 28728309 29708265 30258249 30558218 30638128 30338121 29718104 29188076 28878060 28298052 27858130 27838203 27938261 28028287 28728309 Read more

WW 0026 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 26 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 35 NNE SAV TO 25 SE OGB TO 30 WSW FLO TO 15 WSW SOP TO 35 SE GSO TO 20 S DAN TO 25 SSE LYH. ..BENTLEY..03/05/25 ATTN...WFO...RAH...ILM...GSP...RNK...MHX...CHS...CAE... STATUS REPORT FOR WT 26 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS NCC001-017-019-037-047-051-061-063-065-069-077-079-083-085-093- 101-105-107-125-127-129-135-141-145-153-155-163-165-181-183-185- 191-195-051640- NC . NORTH CAROLINA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE ALAMANCE BLADEN BRUNSWICK CHATHAM COLUMBUS CUMBERLAND DUPLIN DURHAM EDGECOMBE FRANKLIN GRANVILLE GREENE HALIFAX HARNETT HOKE JOHNSTON LEE LENOIR MOORE NASH NEW HANOVER ORANGE PENDER PERSON RICHMOND ROBESON SAMPSON SCOTLAND VANCE WAKE WARREN WAYNE WILSON SCC015-019-027-029-031-033-035-041-043-051-067-069-089-051640- SC . SOUTH CAROLINA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE Read more

WW 0026 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 26 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 35 NNE SAV TO 25 SE OGB TO 30 WSW FLO TO 15 WSW SOP TO 35 SE GSO TO 20 S DAN TO 25 SSE LYH. ..BENTLEY..03/05/25 ATTN...WFO...RAH...ILM...GSP...RNK...MHX...CHS...CAE... STATUS REPORT FOR WT 26 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS NCC001-017-019-037-047-051-061-063-065-069-077-079-083-085-093- 101-105-107-125-127-129-135-141-145-153-155-163-165-181-183-185- 191-195-051640- NC . NORTH CAROLINA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE ALAMANCE BLADEN BRUNSWICK CHATHAM COLUMBUS CUMBERLAND DUPLIN DURHAM EDGECOMBE FRANKLIN GRANVILLE GREENE HALIFAX HARNETT HOKE JOHNSTON LEE LENOIR MOORE NASH NEW HANOVER ORANGE PENDER PERSON RICHMOND ROBESON SAMPSON SCOTLAND VANCE WAKE WARREN WAYNE WILSON SCC015-019-027-029-031-033-035-041-043-051-067-069-089-051640- SC . SOUTH CAROLINA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE Read more

MD 0147 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE FOR SOUTH-CENTRAL VIRGINIA
Mesoscale Discussion 0147 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0750 AM CST Wed Mar 05 2025 Areas affected...south-central Virginia Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible Valid 051350Z - 051545Z Probability of Watch Issuance...60 percent SUMMARY...A risk of damaging gusts or a brief tornado will gradually increase across parts of southern Virginia. A watch may eventually be needed. DISCUSSION...A strongly forced low-topped convective line continues to push east across western VA and NC, with a rather wide region of rain as well. Instability is weak but shear is quite strong. As persistent southerly winds bring greater theta-e into the region, temperatures rising into the 60s should eventually yield sufficient low-level buoyancy to support strong gusts or a brief QLCS tornado. Prior to any substantial boundary-layer destabilization, any severe risk will likely remain tied to the forced line. ..Jewell/Smith.. 03/05/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...AKQ...RNK... LAT...LON 36897984 37757841 37797764 37417705 36747700 36577714 36577963 36597987 36707994 36897984 Read more

WW 0027 Status Updates
STATUS FOR WATCH 0027 HAS NOT BEEN ISSUED YET Read more

WW 0025 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 25 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 25 NE CTY TO 35 SSE AYS TO 35 ENE AYS TO 30 WSW SAV TO 30 SSW OGB TO 30 SSW OGB. ..BENTLEY..03/05/25 ATTN...WFO...JAX...TAE...FFC...CHS... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 25 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS FLC003-023-031-089-051540- FL . FLORIDA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE BAKER COLUMBIA DUVAL NASSAU GAC025-029-039-049-051-103-127-179-183-191-305-051540- GA . GEORGIA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE BRANTLEY BRYAN CAMDEN CHARLTON CHATHAM EFFINGHAM GLYNN LIBERTY LONG MCINTOSH WAYNE SCC013-049-053-051540- SC . SOUTH CAROLINA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE Read more

WW 0025 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 25 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 25 NE CTY TO 35 SSE AYS TO 35 ENE AYS TO 30 WSW SAV TO 30 SSW OGB TO 30 SSW OGB. ..BENTLEY..03/05/25 ATTN...WFO...JAX...TAE...FFC...CHS... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 25 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS FLC003-023-031-089-051540- FL . FLORIDA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE BAKER COLUMBIA DUVAL NASSAU GAC025-029-039-049-051-103-127-179-183-191-305-051540- GA . GEORGIA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE BRANTLEY BRYAN CAMDEN CHARLTON CHATHAM EFFINGHAM GLYNN LIBERTY LONG MCINTOSH WAYNE SCC013-049-053-051540- SC . SOUTH CAROLINA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE Read more

WW 0025 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 25 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 25 NE CTY TO 35 SSE AYS TO 35 ENE AYS TO 30 WSW SAV TO 30 SSW OGB TO 30 SSW OGB. ..BENTLEY..03/05/25 ATTN...WFO...JAX...TAE...FFC...CHS... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 25 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS FLC003-023-031-089-051540- FL . FLORIDA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE BAKER COLUMBIA DUVAL NASSAU GAC025-029-039-049-051-103-127-179-183-191-305-051540- GA . GEORGIA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE BRANTLEY BRYAN CAMDEN CHARLTON CHATHAM EFFINGHAM GLYNN LIBERTY LONG MCINTOSH WAYNE SCC013-049-053-051540- SC . SOUTH CAROLINA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE Read more

WW 0025 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 25 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 25 NE CTY TO 35 SSE AYS TO 35 ENE AYS TO 30 WSW SAV TO 30 SSW OGB TO 30 SSW OGB. ..BENTLEY..03/05/25 ATTN...WFO...JAX...TAE...FFC...CHS... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 25 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS FLC003-023-031-089-051540- FL . FLORIDA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE BAKER COLUMBIA DUVAL NASSAU GAC025-029-039-049-051-103-127-179-183-191-305-051540- GA . GEORGIA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE BRANTLEY BRYAN CAMDEN CHARLTON CHATHAM EFFINGHAM GLYNN LIBERTY LONG MCINTOSH WAYNE SCC013-049-053-051540- SC . SOUTH CAROLINA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE Read more