Severe Storms

SPC 0600Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1149 PM CDT Sun Mar 09 2025 Valid 111200Z - 121200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Isolated thunderstorms are possible across far southwest California Tuesday afternoon/evening. Severe storms are not expected. ...Synopsis... Generally low-amplitude westerly mid/upper flow will overspread the Plains and Southeast ahead of a shortwave upper trough moving into the Southwest. At the surface, a prior cold frontal passage deep into the Gulf and high pressure over the eastern Gulf/Southeast will result in a dearth of boundary layer moisture east of the Rockies for much of the period. Further west, a surface low offshore southern CA will weaken as it moves east over southern CA during the afternoon/evening. Cool temperatures aloft beneath the upper trough will support steep lapse rates and weak instability (MUCAPE generally less than 300 J/kg). Isolated thunderstorms will be possible offshore and may persist inland across a small part of southwest CA. ..Leitman.. 03/10/2025 Read more

SPC 0600Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1149 PM CDT Sun Mar 09 2025 Valid 111200Z - 121200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Isolated thunderstorms are possible across far southwest California Tuesday afternoon/evening. Severe storms are not expected. ...Synopsis... Generally low-amplitude westerly mid/upper flow will overspread the Plains and Southeast ahead of a shortwave upper trough moving into the Southwest. At the surface, a prior cold frontal passage deep into the Gulf and high pressure over the eastern Gulf/Southeast will result in a dearth of boundary layer moisture east of the Rockies for much of the period. Further west, a surface low offshore southern CA will weaken as it moves east over southern CA during the afternoon/evening. Cool temperatures aloft beneath the upper trough will support steep lapse rates and weak instability (MUCAPE generally less than 300 J/kg). Isolated thunderstorms will be possible offshore and may persist inland across a small part of southwest CA. ..Leitman.. 03/10/2025 Read more

SPC 0600Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1149 PM CDT Sun Mar 09 2025 Valid 111200Z - 121200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Isolated thunderstorms are possible across far southwest California Tuesday afternoon/evening. Severe storms are not expected. ...Synopsis... Generally low-amplitude westerly mid/upper flow will overspread the Plains and Southeast ahead of a shortwave upper trough moving into the Southwest. At the surface, a prior cold frontal passage deep into the Gulf and high pressure over the eastern Gulf/Southeast will result in a dearth of boundary layer moisture east of the Rockies for much of the period. Further west, a surface low offshore southern CA will weaken as it moves east over southern CA during the afternoon/evening. Cool temperatures aloft beneath the upper trough will support steep lapse rates and weak instability (MUCAPE generally less than 300 J/kg). Isolated thunderstorms will be possible offshore and may persist inland across a small part of southwest CA. ..Leitman.. 03/10/2025 Read more

SPC 0600Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1149 PM CDT Sun Mar 09 2025 Valid 111200Z - 121200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Isolated thunderstorms are possible across far southwest California Tuesday afternoon/evening. Severe storms are not expected. ...Synopsis... Generally low-amplitude westerly mid/upper flow will overspread the Plains and Southeast ahead of a shortwave upper trough moving into the Southwest. At the surface, a prior cold frontal passage deep into the Gulf and high pressure over the eastern Gulf/Southeast will result in a dearth of boundary layer moisture east of the Rockies for much of the period. Further west, a surface low offshore southern CA will weaken as it moves east over southern CA during the afternoon/evening. Cool temperatures aloft beneath the upper trough will support steep lapse rates and weak instability (MUCAPE generally less than 300 J/kg). Isolated thunderstorms will be possible offshore and may persist inland across a small part of southwest CA. ..Leitman.. 03/10/2025 Read more

SPC 0600Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1149 PM CDT Sun Mar 09 2025 Valid 111200Z - 121200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Isolated thunderstorms are possible across far southwest California Tuesday afternoon/evening. Severe storms are not expected. ...Synopsis... Generally low-amplitude westerly mid/upper flow will overspread the Plains and Southeast ahead of a shortwave upper trough moving into the Southwest. At the surface, a prior cold frontal passage deep into the Gulf and high pressure over the eastern Gulf/Southeast will result in a dearth of boundary layer moisture east of the Rockies for much of the period. Further west, a surface low offshore southern CA will weaken as it moves east over southern CA during the afternoon/evening. Cool temperatures aloft beneath the upper trough will support steep lapse rates and weak instability (MUCAPE generally less than 300 J/kg). Isolated thunderstorms will be possible offshore and may persist inland across a small part of southwest CA. ..Leitman.. 03/10/2025 Read more

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1157 PM CDT Sun Mar 09 2025 Valid 101200Z - 111200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF CENTRAL FLORIDA... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorms associated with a marginal risk for severe gusts, and potentially a brief tornado, will be possible today in parts of central Florida. ...Central Florida... A mid-level low will move eastward across Georgia today, as a positively-tilted trough approaches the Florida Peninsula. At the surface, a cold front will advance southeastward across the Florida Peninsula. Ahead of the front, surface dewpoints will be mostly in the mid to upper 60s F. As surface temperatures warm within this moist airmass this morning, instability will gradually increase. RAP forecast soundings across central Florida to the north of Lake Okeechobee have SBCAPE peaking in the 1000 to 1500 J/kg range. Surface-based thunderstorms are expected to develop around mid morning, supported by frontal forcing and large-scale ascent associated with a mid-level jet passing to the north. The storms will move eastward across central Florida from late morning into early afternoon. Near the front, 0-6 km shear is forecast to be around 50 knots, which suggests that a marginal severe threat could develop. Short multicell line segments could have potential for isolated severe gusts as low-level lapse rates become maximized around midday. A brief tornado could also be possible, if a rotating storm can develop. The severe threat is expected to end during the afternoon, as the stronger low-level flow moves offshore into the western Atlantic. ..Broyles/Squitieri.. 03/10/2025 Read more

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1157 PM CDT Sun Mar 09 2025 Valid 101200Z - 111200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF CENTRAL FLORIDA... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorms associated with a marginal risk for severe gusts, and potentially a brief tornado, will be possible today in parts of central Florida. ...Central Florida... A mid-level low will move eastward across Georgia today, as a positively-tilted trough approaches the Florida Peninsula. At the surface, a cold front will advance southeastward across the Florida Peninsula. Ahead of the front, surface dewpoints will be mostly in the mid to upper 60s F. As surface temperatures warm within this moist airmass this morning, instability will gradually increase. RAP forecast soundings across central Florida to the north of Lake Okeechobee have SBCAPE peaking in the 1000 to 1500 J/kg range. Surface-based thunderstorms are expected to develop around mid morning, supported by frontal forcing and large-scale ascent associated with a mid-level jet passing to the north. The storms will move eastward across central Florida from late morning into early afternoon. Near the front, 0-6 km shear is forecast to be around 50 knots, which suggests that a marginal severe threat could develop. Short multicell line segments could have potential for isolated severe gusts as low-level lapse rates become maximized around midday. A brief tornado could also be possible, if a rotating storm can develop. The severe threat is expected to end during the afternoon, as the stronger low-level flow moves offshore into the western Atlantic. ..Broyles/Squitieri.. 03/10/2025 Read more

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1157 PM CDT Sun Mar 09 2025 Valid 101200Z - 111200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF CENTRAL FLORIDA... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorms associated with a marginal risk for severe gusts, and potentially a brief tornado, will be possible today in parts of central Florida. ...Central Florida... A mid-level low will move eastward across Georgia today, as a positively-tilted trough approaches the Florida Peninsula. At the surface, a cold front will advance southeastward across the Florida Peninsula. Ahead of the front, surface dewpoints will be mostly in the mid to upper 60s F. As surface temperatures warm within this moist airmass this morning, instability will gradually increase. RAP forecast soundings across central Florida to the north of Lake Okeechobee have SBCAPE peaking in the 1000 to 1500 J/kg range. Surface-based thunderstorms are expected to develop around mid morning, supported by frontal forcing and large-scale ascent associated with a mid-level jet passing to the north. The storms will move eastward across central Florida from late morning into early afternoon. Near the front, 0-6 km shear is forecast to be around 50 knots, which suggests that a marginal severe threat could develop. Short multicell line segments could have potential for isolated severe gusts as low-level lapse rates become maximized around midday. A brief tornado could also be possible, if a rotating storm can develop. The severe threat is expected to end during the afternoon, as the stronger low-level flow moves offshore into the western Atlantic. ..Broyles/Squitieri.. 03/10/2025 Read more

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1157 PM CDT Sun Mar 09 2025 Valid 101200Z - 111200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF CENTRAL FLORIDA... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorms associated with a marginal risk for severe gusts, and potentially a brief tornado, will be possible today in parts of central Florida. ...Central Florida... A mid-level low will move eastward across Georgia today, as a positively-tilted trough approaches the Florida Peninsula. At the surface, a cold front will advance southeastward across the Florida Peninsula. Ahead of the front, surface dewpoints will be mostly in the mid to upper 60s F. As surface temperatures warm within this moist airmass this morning, instability will gradually increase. RAP forecast soundings across central Florida to the north of Lake Okeechobee have SBCAPE peaking in the 1000 to 1500 J/kg range. Surface-based thunderstorms are expected to develop around mid morning, supported by frontal forcing and large-scale ascent associated with a mid-level jet passing to the north. The storms will move eastward across central Florida from late morning into early afternoon. Near the front, 0-6 km shear is forecast to be around 50 knots, which suggests that a marginal severe threat could develop. Short multicell line segments could have potential for isolated severe gusts as low-level lapse rates become maximized around midday. A brief tornado could also be possible, if a rotating storm can develop. The severe threat is expected to end during the afternoon, as the stronger low-level flow moves offshore into the western Atlantic. ..Broyles/Squitieri.. 03/10/2025 Read more

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1157 PM CDT Sun Mar 09 2025 Valid 101200Z - 111200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF CENTRAL FLORIDA... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorms associated with a marginal risk for severe gusts, and potentially a brief tornado, will be possible today in parts of central Florida. ...Central Florida... A mid-level low will move eastward across Georgia today, as a positively-tilted trough approaches the Florida Peninsula. At the surface, a cold front will advance southeastward across the Florida Peninsula. Ahead of the front, surface dewpoints will be mostly in the mid to upper 60s F. As surface temperatures warm within this moist airmass this morning, instability will gradually increase. RAP forecast soundings across central Florida to the north of Lake Okeechobee have SBCAPE peaking in the 1000 to 1500 J/kg range. Surface-based thunderstorms are expected to develop around mid morning, supported by frontal forcing and large-scale ascent associated with a mid-level jet passing to the north. The storms will move eastward across central Florida from late morning into early afternoon. Near the front, 0-6 km shear is forecast to be around 50 knots, which suggests that a marginal severe threat could develop. Short multicell line segments could have potential for isolated severe gusts as low-level lapse rates become maximized around midday. A brief tornado could also be possible, if a rotating storm can develop. The severe threat is expected to end during the afternoon, as the stronger low-level flow moves offshore into the western Atlantic. ..Broyles/Squitieri.. 03/10/2025 Read more

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1157 PM CDT Sun Mar 09 2025 Valid 101200Z - 111200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF CENTRAL FLORIDA... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorms associated with a marginal risk for severe gusts, and potentially a brief tornado, will be possible today in parts of central Florida. ...Central Florida... A mid-level low will move eastward across Georgia today, as a positively-tilted trough approaches the Florida Peninsula. At the surface, a cold front will advance southeastward across the Florida Peninsula. Ahead of the front, surface dewpoints will be mostly in the mid to upper 60s F. As surface temperatures warm within this moist airmass this morning, instability will gradually increase. RAP forecast soundings across central Florida to the north of Lake Okeechobee have SBCAPE peaking in the 1000 to 1500 J/kg range. Surface-based thunderstorms are expected to develop around mid morning, supported by frontal forcing and large-scale ascent associated with a mid-level jet passing to the north. The storms will move eastward across central Florida from late morning into early afternoon. Near the front, 0-6 km shear is forecast to be around 50 knots, which suggests that a marginal severe threat could develop. Short multicell line segments could have potential for isolated severe gusts as low-level lapse rates become maximized around midday. A brief tornado could also be possible, if a rotating storm can develop. The severe threat is expected to end during the afternoon, as the stronger low-level flow moves offshore into the western Atlantic. ..Broyles/Squitieri.. 03/10/2025 Read more

SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0747 PM CDT Sun Mar 09 2025 Valid 100100Z - 101200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF NORTHERN FLORIDA...SOUTHEAST ALABAMA AND SOUTHERN GEORGIA... ...SUMMARY... Marginally severe thunderstorms remain possible this evening from parts of far southeast Alabama and southern Georgia into northern and central Florida. ...Far Southeast Alabama/Southern Georgia/Northern and Central Florida... A shortwave trough is evident on water vapor imagery over northern Florida, where scattered thunderstorms are ongoing. Additional storms are located further west into parts of the Florida Panhandle and far southeast Alabama. Most of this convection is to the north of a slow-moving front located across the northern Florida Peninsula. The strongest of storms that remain to the north of the front will be elevated and may have a potential for hail. Some of the cells that generate in the northeast Gulf this evening will move into northern Florida, where weak instability and strong deep-layer shear is present. These storms could be surface-based and have potential for isolated severe gusts. A brief tornado could also occur. The marginal severe threat could continue into the overnight period, as a mid-level low approaches from the west. ..Broyles.. 03/10/2025 Read more

SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0747 PM CDT Sun Mar 09 2025 Valid 100100Z - 101200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF NORTHERN FLORIDA...SOUTHEAST ALABAMA AND SOUTHERN GEORGIA... ...SUMMARY... Marginally severe thunderstorms remain possible this evening from parts of far southeast Alabama and southern Georgia into northern and central Florida. ...Far Southeast Alabama/Southern Georgia/Northern and Central Florida... A shortwave trough is evident on water vapor imagery over northern Florida, where scattered thunderstorms are ongoing. Additional storms are located further west into parts of the Florida Panhandle and far southeast Alabama. Most of this convection is to the north of a slow-moving front located across the northern Florida Peninsula. The strongest of storms that remain to the north of the front will be elevated and may have a potential for hail. Some of the cells that generate in the northeast Gulf this evening will move into northern Florida, where weak instability and strong deep-layer shear is present. These storms could be surface-based and have potential for isolated severe gusts. A brief tornado could also occur. The marginal severe threat could continue into the overnight period, as a mid-level low approaches from the west. ..Broyles.. 03/10/2025 Read more

SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0747 PM CDT Sun Mar 09 2025 Valid 100100Z - 101200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF NORTHERN FLORIDA...SOUTHEAST ALABAMA AND SOUTHERN GEORGIA... ...SUMMARY... Marginally severe thunderstorms remain possible this evening from parts of far southeast Alabama and southern Georgia into northern and central Florida. ...Far Southeast Alabama/Southern Georgia/Northern and Central Florida... A shortwave trough is evident on water vapor imagery over northern Florida, where scattered thunderstorms are ongoing. Additional storms are located further west into parts of the Florida Panhandle and far southeast Alabama. Most of this convection is to the north of a slow-moving front located across the northern Florida Peninsula. The strongest of storms that remain to the north of the front will be elevated and may have a potential for hail. Some of the cells that generate in the northeast Gulf this evening will move into northern Florida, where weak instability and strong deep-layer shear is present. These storms could be surface-based and have potential for isolated severe gusts. A brief tornado could also occur. The marginal severe threat could continue into the overnight period, as a mid-level low approaches from the west. ..Broyles.. 03/10/2025 Read more

SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0747 PM CDT Sun Mar 09 2025 Valid 100100Z - 101200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF NORTHERN FLORIDA...SOUTHEAST ALABAMA AND SOUTHERN GEORGIA... ...SUMMARY... Marginally severe thunderstorms remain possible this evening from parts of far southeast Alabama and southern Georgia into northern and central Florida. ...Far Southeast Alabama/Southern Georgia/Northern and Central Florida... A shortwave trough is evident on water vapor imagery over northern Florida, where scattered thunderstorms are ongoing. Additional storms are located further west into parts of the Florida Panhandle and far southeast Alabama. Most of this convection is to the north of a slow-moving front located across the northern Florida Peninsula. The strongest of storms that remain to the north of the front will be elevated and may have a potential for hail. Some of the cells that generate in the northeast Gulf this evening will move into northern Florida, where weak instability and strong deep-layer shear is present. These storms could be surface-based and have potential for isolated severe gusts. A brief tornado could also occur. The marginal severe threat could continue into the overnight period, as a mid-level low approaches from the west. ..Broyles.. 03/10/2025 Read more

SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0747 PM CDT Sun Mar 09 2025 Valid 100100Z - 101200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF NORTHERN FLORIDA...SOUTHEAST ALABAMA AND SOUTHERN GEORGIA... ...SUMMARY... Marginally severe thunderstorms remain possible this evening from parts of far southeast Alabama and southern Georgia into northern and central Florida. ...Far Southeast Alabama/Southern Georgia/Northern and Central Florida... A shortwave trough is evident on water vapor imagery over northern Florida, where scattered thunderstorms are ongoing. Additional storms are located further west into parts of the Florida Panhandle and far southeast Alabama. Most of this convection is to the north of a slow-moving front located across the northern Florida Peninsula. The strongest of storms that remain to the north of the front will be elevated and may have a potential for hail. Some of the cells that generate in the northeast Gulf this evening will move into northern Florida, where weak instability and strong deep-layer shear is present. These storms could be surface-based and have potential for isolated severe gusts. A brief tornado could also occur. The marginal severe threat could continue into the overnight period, as a mid-level low approaches from the west. ..Broyles.. 03/10/2025 Read more

No watches are valid as of Sun Mar 9 22:26:01 UTC 2025.

No Mesoscale Discussions are in effect as of Sun Mar 9 22:26:01 UTC 2025.

MD 0159 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY FOR THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE...SOUTHERN ALABAMA...AND SOUTHWEST GEORGIA
Mesoscale Discussion 0159 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0247 PM CDT Sun Mar 09 2025 Areas affected...the Florida Panhandle...southern Alabama...and southwest Georgia Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely Valid 091947Z - 092215Z Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent SUMMARY...A few storms are likely to produce hail through this evening. DISCUSSION...A quasi-stationary front currently exists over the northeastern Gulf, and near the coastal Florida Panhandle. While stronger overall instability resides to the south, substantial elevated instability exists well inland as southwest winds aloft persist and aid in moisture transport. Forecast soundings show strong effective shear over 60 kt, and these lengthy hodographs ahead of the upper trough will support hail production in elevated storms, including left movers. While only a few storms currently exist, additional development is possible near the frontal zone throughout the rest of the day. The primary threat should be hail above 1.00" diameter. ..Jewell/Gleason.. 03/09/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...TAE...BMX...MOB... LAT...LON 29948418 29558494 29628534 29998572 30328644 30298714 30238758 30608750 31328710 31898596 31888457 31278402 30708395 29948418 Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0412 PM CDT Sun Mar 09 2025 Valid 111200Z - 171200Z A very active fire-weather pattern is expected across the southern Plains throughout the extended forecast period, as a series of robust midlevel shortwave troughs traverse the area amid increasingly dry/receptive fuels. The greatest concern is on Day 6/Friday, when widespread critical conditions are expected across the southern Plains, with the potential for high-end critical to extremely critical conditions also evident. ...Days 3-5/Tuesday-Thursday - Southern High Plains... The first low-latitude midlevel shortwave trough and related strong flow aloft will overspread the southern Rockies and adjacent High Plains during this time frame. This will yield dry/windy conditions west of the dryline each afternoon, with critical conditions expected. ...Day 6/Friday - Southern Plains... A highly amplified large-scale trough and attendant 100+ kt midlevel jet streak will emerge over the southern Plains, while a surface cyclone rapidly deepens over the central Plains. In response, very strong deep-layer westerly flow will overspread a deep/dry air mass across the southern Plains, where fuels will be drying out leading up to the event. This system will favor widespread critical to extremely critical fire-weather conditions. Further northeastward extensions of the 70-percent Critical probabilities may become necessary in future outlooks as forecast confidence increases regrading RH reductions. Thereafter, a secondary low-latitude shortwave trough will likely emerge over the southern High Plains on Day 7/Saturday, leading to another day of critical conditions across the region. ..Weinman.. 03/09/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more