Severe Storms

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1126 AM CDT Sun Mar 09 2025 Valid 091630Z - 101200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE SOUTHEAST... ...SUMMARY... Isolated strong to severe thunderstorms remain possible today and tonight from parts of northern/central Florida into southern Alabama/Georgia. ...Southeast... A positively tilted upper trough will continue to move eastward over the lower MS Valley and central Gulf Coast States through tonight. A related weak surface low near the mouth of the MS River late this morning will likewise develop eastward along/near the AL/FL Gulf Coast, with a stalled front extending eastward from this low over northern FL. Multiple small thunderstorms and clusters are ongoing across the FL Panhandle and northern FL. Most of this activity is occurring along/north of the convectively reinforced boundary. While strong deep-layer shear will conditionally support supercells, this convection is generally expected to remain elevated, with mainly a marginal severe hail threat given modestly steepened mid-lapse rates and weak but sufficient MUCAPE. An isolated hail risk may also exist with convection well north of the surface boundary into parts of southern MS/AL. The Marginal Risk for hail has been expanded a little westward and northward in AL/GA to account for a couple supercells that may develop later this afternoon. Additional thunderstorm clusters may also form/consolidate along/south of the front in north/central FL through tonight. While lapse rates aloft will remain more modest with southward extent, gradually increasing low-level moisture and modest daytime heating should allow for modest destabilization through the late afternoon. Isolated strong to damaging winds may occur with any surface-based thunderstorms, and a brief tornado also appears possible through tonight as low-level southwesterly flow gradually strengthens with the approach of the upper trough. Overall, severe potential across the Southeast should tend to remain fairly isolated through the end of the period. ..Gleason/Wendt.. 03/09/2025 Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1126 AM CDT Sun Mar 09 2025 Valid 091630Z - 101200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE SOUTHEAST... ...SUMMARY... Isolated strong to severe thunderstorms remain possible today and tonight from parts of northern/central Florida into southern Alabama/Georgia. ...Southeast... A positively tilted upper trough will continue to move eastward over the lower MS Valley and central Gulf Coast States through tonight. A related weak surface low near the mouth of the MS River late this morning will likewise develop eastward along/near the AL/FL Gulf Coast, with a stalled front extending eastward from this low over northern FL. Multiple small thunderstorms and clusters are ongoing across the FL Panhandle and northern FL. Most of this activity is occurring along/north of the convectively reinforced boundary. While strong deep-layer shear will conditionally support supercells, this convection is generally expected to remain elevated, with mainly a marginal severe hail threat given modestly steepened mid-lapse rates and weak but sufficient MUCAPE. An isolated hail risk may also exist with convection well north of the surface boundary into parts of southern MS/AL. The Marginal Risk for hail has been expanded a little westward and northward in AL/GA to account for a couple supercells that may develop later this afternoon. Additional thunderstorm clusters may also form/consolidate along/south of the front in north/central FL through tonight. While lapse rates aloft will remain more modest with southward extent, gradually increasing low-level moisture and modest daytime heating should allow for modest destabilization through the late afternoon. Isolated strong to damaging winds may occur with any surface-based thunderstorms, and a brief tornado also appears possible through tonight as low-level southwesterly flow gradually strengthens with the approach of the upper trough. Overall, severe potential across the Southeast should tend to remain fairly isolated through the end of the period. ..Gleason/Wendt.. 03/09/2025 Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1126 AM CDT Sun Mar 09 2025 Valid 091630Z - 101200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE SOUTHEAST... ...SUMMARY... Isolated strong to severe thunderstorms remain possible today and tonight from parts of northern/central Florida into southern Alabama/Georgia. ...Southeast... A positively tilted upper trough will continue to move eastward over the lower MS Valley and central Gulf Coast States through tonight. A related weak surface low near the mouth of the MS River late this morning will likewise develop eastward along/near the AL/FL Gulf Coast, with a stalled front extending eastward from this low over northern FL. Multiple small thunderstorms and clusters are ongoing across the FL Panhandle and northern FL. Most of this activity is occurring along/north of the convectively reinforced boundary. While strong deep-layer shear will conditionally support supercells, this convection is generally expected to remain elevated, with mainly a marginal severe hail threat given modestly steepened mid-lapse rates and weak but sufficient MUCAPE. An isolated hail risk may also exist with convection well north of the surface boundary into parts of southern MS/AL. The Marginal Risk for hail has been expanded a little westward and northward in AL/GA to account for a couple supercells that may develop later this afternoon. Additional thunderstorm clusters may also form/consolidate along/south of the front in north/central FL through tonight. While lapse rates aloft will remain more modest with southward extent, gradually increasing low-level moisture and modest daytime heating should allow for modest destabilization through the late afternoon. Isolated strong to damaging winds may occur with any surface-based thunderstorms, and a brief tornado also appears possible through tonight as low-level southwesterly flow gradually strengthens with the approach of the upper trough. Overall, severe potential across the Southeast should tend to remain fairly isolated through the end of the period. ..Gleason/Wendt.. 03/09/2025 Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1126 AM CDT Sun Mar 09 2025 Valid 091630Z - 101200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE SOUTHEAST... ...SUMMARY... Isolated strong to severe thunderstorms remain possible today and tonight from parts of northern/central Florida into southern Alabama/Georgia. ...Southeast... A positively tilted upper trough will continue to move eastward over the lower MS Valley and central Gulf Coast States through tonight. A related weak surface low near the mouth of the MS River late this morning will likewise develop eastward along/near the AL/FL Gulf Coast, with a stalled front extending eastward from this low over northern FL. Multiple small thunderstorms and clusters are ongoing across the FL Panhandle and northern FL. Most of this activity is occurring along/north of the convectively reinforced boundary. While strong deep-layer shear will conditionally support supercells, this convection is generally expected to remain elevated, with mainly a marginal severe hail threat given modestly steepened mid-lapse rates and weak but sufficient MUCAPE. An isolated hail risk may also exist with convection well north of the surface boundary into parts of southern MS/AL. The Marginal Risk for hail has been expanded a little westward and northward in AL/GA to account for a couple supercells that may develop later this afternoon. Additional thunderstorm clusters may also form/consolidate along/south of the front in north/central FL through tonight. While lapse rates aloft will remain more modest with southward extent, gradually increasing low-level moisture and modest daytime heating should allow for modest destabilization through the late afternoon. Isolated strong to damaging winds may occur with any surface-based thunderstorms, and a brief tornado also appears possible through tonight as low-level southwesterly flow gradually strengthens with the approach of the upper trough. Overall, severe potential across the Southeast should tend to remain fairly isolated through the end of the period. ..Gleason/Wendt.. 03/09/2025 Read more

SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0747 AM CDT Sun Mar 09 2025 Valid 091300Z - 101200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR SOUTHEAST ALABAMA INTO SOUTHERN GEORGIA AND INTO NORTH FLORIDA AND THE PANHANDLE... ...SUMMARY... Isolated strong to severe thunderstorms are possible today from parts of northern Florida into far southeast Alabama and southern Georgia. ...Far Southeast Alabama/Southern Georgia/Northern Florida... Morning surface analysis places a low near the mouth of the MS River and a maritime front draped east over the continental shelf waters south of the FL Panhandle. A lead mid-level shortwave trough, evident in early morning water-vapor imagery, is moving east along the central Gulf Coast. Farther upstream over AR-OK-TX, a mid-level low and associated positive-tilt trough are forecast to move east-southeastward into southern AL and the northern Gulf of America. Episodic scattered showers/thunderstorms are forecast in the vicinity or north of the west-east oriented frontal zone. Surface-based development should be confined to areas near and to the south of the front, where weak instability (200-800 J/kg MLCAPE) and strong deep-layer shear (45-55 kt effective shear) are forecast. A mix of a few strong to occasionally severe thunderstorms, in the form of weak supercell structures and organized linear bands, will be capable of isolated 55-70 mph gusts, perhaps a risk for a brief tornado, and marginally severe hail (up to 1.25 inches in diameter). A gradual waning of the severe risk is forecast by late evening. ..Smith/Dean.. 03/09/2025 Read more

SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0747 AM CDT Sun Mar 09 2025 Valid 091300Z - 101200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR SOUTHEAST ALABAMA INTO SOUTHERN GEORGIA AND INTO NORTH FLORIDA AND THE PANHANDLE... ...SUMMARY... Isolated strong to severe thunderstorms are possible today from parts of northern Florida into far southeast Alabama and southern Georgia. ...Far Southeast Alabama/Southern Georgia/Northern Florida... Morning surface analysis places a low near the mouth of the MS River and a maritime front draped east over the continental shelf waters south of the FL Panhandle. A lead mid-level shortwave trough, evident in early morning water-vapor imagery, is moving east along the central Gulf Coast. Farther upstream over AR-OK-TX, a mid-level low and associated positive-tilt trough are forecast to move east-southeastward into southern AL and the northern Gulf of America. Episodic scattered showers/thunderstorms are forecast in the vicinity or north of the west-east oriented frontal zone. Surface-based development should be confined to areas near and to the south of the front, where weak instability (200-800 J/kg MLCAPE) and strong deep-layer shear (45-55 kt effective shear) are forecast. A mix of a few strong to occasionally severe thunderstorms, in the form of weak supercell structures and organized linear bands, will be capable of isolated 55-70 mph gusts, perhaps a risk for a brief tornado, and marginally severe hail (up to 1.25 inches in diameter). A gradual waning of the severe risk is forecast by late evening. ..Smith/Dean.. 03/09/2025 Read more

SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0747 AM CDT Sun Mar 09 2025 Valid 091300Z - 101200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR SOUTHEAST ALABAMA INTO SOUTHERN GEORGIA AND INTO NORTH FLORIDA AND THE PANHANDLE... ...SUMMARY... Isolated strong to severe thunderstorms are possible today from parts of northern Florida into far southeast Alabama and southern Georgia. ...Far Southeast Alabama/Southern Georgia/Northern Florida... Morning surface analysis places a low near the mouth of the MS River and a maritime front draped east over the continental shelf waters south of the FL Panhandle. A lead mid-level shortwave trough, evident in early morning water-vapor imagery, is moving east along the central Gulf Coast. Farther upstream over AR-OK-TX, a mid-level low and associated positive-tilt trough are forecast to move east-southeastward into southern AL and the northern Gulf of America. Episodic scattered showers/thunderstorms are forecast in the vicinity or north of the west-east oriented frontal zone. Surface-based development should be confined to areas near and to the south of the front, where weak instability (200-800 J/kg MLCAPE) and strong deep-layer shear (45-55 kt effective shear) are forecast. A mix of a few strong to occasionally severe thunderstorms, in the form of weak supercell structures and organized linear bands, will be capable of isolated 55-70 mph gusts, perhaps a risk for a brief tornado, and marginally severe hail (up to 1.25 inches in diameter). A gradual waning of the severe risk is forecast by late evening. ..Smith/Dean.. 03/09/2025 Read more

SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0747 AM CDT Sun Mar 09 2025 Valid 091300Z - 101200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR SOUTHEAST ALABAMA INTO SOUTHERN GEORGIA AND INTO NORTH FLORIDA AND THE PANHANDLE... ...SUMMARY... Isolated strong to severe thunderstorms are possible today from parts of northern Florida into far southeast Alabama and southern Georgia. ...Far Southeast Alabama/Southern Georgia/Northern Florida... Morning surface analysis places a low near the mouth of the MS River and a maritime front draped east over the continental shelf waters south of the FL Panhandle. A lead mid-level shortwave trough, evident in early morning water-vapor imagery, is moving east along the central Gulf Coast. Farther upstream over AR-OK-TX, a mid-level low and associated positive-tilt trough are forecast to move east-southeastward into southern AL and the northern Gulf of America. Episodic scattered showers/thunderstorms are forecast in the vicinity or north of the west-east oriented frontal zone. Surface-based development should be confined to areas near and to the south of the front, where weak instability (200-800 J/kg MLCAPE) and strong deep-layer shear (45-55 kt effective shear) are forecast. A mix of a few strong to occasionally severe thunderstorms, in the form of weak supercell structures and organized linear bands, will be capable of isolated 55-70 mph gusts, perhaps a risk for a brief tornado, and marginally severe hail (up to 1.25 inches in diameter). A gradual waning of the severe risk is forecast by late evening. ..Smith/Dean.. 03/09/2025 Read more

SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0747 AM CDT Sun Mar 09 2025 Valid 091300Z - 101200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR SOUTHEAST ALABAMA INTO SOUTHERN GEORGIA AND INTO NORTH FLORIDA AND THE PANHANDLE... ...SUMMARY... Isolated strong to severe thunderstorms are possible today from parts of northern Florida into far southeast Alabama and southern Georgia. ...Far Southeast Alabama/Southern Georgia/Northern Florida... Morning surface analysis places a low near the mouth of the MS River and a maritime front draped east over the continental shelf waters south of the FL Panhandle. A lead mid-level shortwave trough, evident in early morning water-vapor imagery, is moving east along the central Gulf Coast. Farther upstream over AR-OK-TX, a mid-level low and associated positive-tilt trough are forecast to move east-southeastward into southern AL and the northern Gulf of America. Episodic scattered showers/thunderstorms are forecast in the vicinity or north of the west-east oriented frontal zone. Surface-based development should be confined to areas near and to the south of the front, where weak instability (200-800 J/kg MLCAPE) and strong deep-layer shear (45-55 kt effective shear) are forecast. A mix of a few strong to occasionally severe thunderstorms, in the form of weak supercell structures and organized linear bands, will be capable of isolated 55-70 mph gusts, perhaps a risk for a brief tornado, and marginally severe hail (up to 1.25 inches in diameter). A gradual waning of the severe risk is forecast by late evening. ..Smith/Dean.. 03/09/2025 Read more

Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0335 AM CDT Sun Mar 09 2025 Valid 121200Z - 171200Z ...DISCUSSION... ...Day 4/Wed - ArkLaTex vicinity... A shortwave upper trough is forecast to develop east from the southern Rockies/northern Mexico to the Lower MS/TN Valley vicinity on Wednesday. Forecast guidance generally keep the stronger midlevel jet streak over central/southern TX into the Lower MS Valley. Surface cyclogenesis is expected to remain modest, but some increase in southerly low-level flow across the western Gulf with transport mid 50s to low 60s F dewpoints into the ArkLaTex and Ozark Plateau region. Cooling aloft will support steepening midlevel lapse rates, and this will contribute to modest elevated instability. Forecast soundings suggest boundary layer inhibition will likely subdue potential for surface-based convection. Nevertheless, some potential for isolated strong to severe storms capable of producing hail appears possible. Overall confidence in unconditional 15 percent probabilities is too low to delineate any severe area at this time, but some low-end probabilities may become necessary in subsequent outlooks. ...Day 6/Fri - Mid to Lower MS Valley vicinity... A powerful upper cyclone and attendant trough is expected to develop east across the Plains toward the MS Valley on Friday. An intense southwesterly jet (100+ kt at 500 mb) is expected to be oriented from the southern Plains to the Mid-MS Valley by Friday evening. Meanwhile, a rapidly intensifying surface cyclone will shift northeast from the central Plains to the Upper Midwest vicinity through the period. Strong southerly low-level flow ahead of this low and an attendant eastward-advancing cold front will support rapid northward transport of Gulf moisture. While details regarding quality of northward moisture transport remain, this overall pattern will be very favorable for a regional severe weather episode from late Friday afternoon into early Day 6/Sat morning. Overall, cross-model consistency has improved compared to the past couple of days, and guidance generally appears to be converging on similar solutions. When compared with the operational ECMWF, the operational GFS remains a bit further north with the placement of the low-level and upper-level cyclones, as well as northward extent of better moisture return. However, the GEFS and EPS ensemble means are quite similar. While this indicates there is still a moderate degree of spread in the north and east extent of severe potential, the envelop is narrowing, and a broad area favorable for an all-hazards severe episode is expected on Friday/Friday night, centered on the Mid to Lower MS Valley vicinity. This trends is also aligned with SPC and NSSL experimental machine learning guidance. Given uncertainties still exist regarding timing and location of key features, as well as with northward extent of deeper moisture return, this area is likely to change/shift some over the coming days as details become better resolved (and higher probabilities will likely become necessary as well). ...Day 7/Sat - Southeast vicinity... While the upper cyclone from Day 6/Fri will lift northeast over the Upper Great Lakes into Canada on Saturday, the base of the larger-scale upper trough over the southern Plains will eject east over the Southeast states. Convection will likely already be occurring ahead of the cold front, and will have access to deeper Gulf moisture downstream across MS/AL. The north and east extent of severe potential is uncertain as the evolution of the system on Friday will impact downstream potential. Nevertheless, the overall pattern will be favorable for a continuation of severe potential into Saturday given strong vertical shear overlapping a seasonally moist and at least modestly unstable airmass. ...Day 8/Sun - Mid-Atlantic vicinity... An upper trough will continue to shift east across the eastern U.S. on Sunday. While strong deep-layer flow will overspread the region in conjunction with a moist boundary-layer ahead of an eastward-advancing cold front, it is uncertain how much destabilization will be able to occur. Trends will be monitored for possible severe probabilities in the coming days, but current predictability is low. Read more

Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0335 AM CDT Sun Mar 09 2025 Valid 121200Z - 171200Z ...DISCUSSION... ...Day 4/Wed - ArkLaTex vicinity... A shortwave upper trough is forecast to develop east from the southern Rockies/northern Mexico to the Lower MS/TN Valley vicinity on Wednesday. Forecast guidance generally keep the stronger midlevel jet streak over central/southern TX into the Lower MS Valley. Surface cyclogenesis is expected to remain modest, but some increase in southerly low-level flow across the western Gulf with transport mid 50s to low 60s F dewpoints into the ArkLaTex and Ozark Plateau region. Cooling aloft will support steepening midlevel lapse rates, and this will contribute to modest elevated instability. Forecast soundings suggest boundary layer inhibition will likely subdue potential for surface-based convection. Nevertheless, some potential for isolated strong to severe storms capable of producing hail appears possible. Overall confidence in unconditional 15 percent probabilities is too low to delineate any severe area at this time, but some low-end probabilities may become necessary in subsequent outlooks. ...Day 6/Fri - Mid to Lower MS Valley vicinity... A powerful upper cyclone and attendant trough is expected to develop east across the Plains toward the MS Valley on Friday. An intense southwesterly jet (100+ kt at 500 mb) is expected to be oriented from the southern Plains to the Mid-MS Valley by Friday evening. Meanwhile, a rapidly intensifying surface cyclone will shift northeast from the central Plains to the Upper Midwest vicinity through the period. Strong southerly low-level flow ahead of this low and an attendant eastward-advancing cold front will support rapid northward transport of Gulf moisture. While details regarding quality of northward moisture transport remain, this overall pattern will be very favorable for a regional severe weather episode from late Friday afternoon into early Day 6/Sat morning. Overall, cross-model consistency has improved compared to the past couple of days, and guidance generally appears to be converging on similar solutions. When compared with the operational ECMWF, the operational GFS remains a bit further north with the placement of the low-level and upper-level cyclones, as well as northward extent of better moisture return. However, the GEFS and EPS ensemble means are quite similar. While this indicates there is still a moderate degree of spread in the north and east extent of severe potential, the envelop is narrowing, and a broad area favorable for an all-hazards severe episode is expected on Friday/Friday night, centered on the Mid to Lower MS Valley vicinity. This trends is also aligned with SPC and NSSL experimental machine learning guidance. Given uncertainties still exist regarding timing and location of key features, as well as with northward extent of deeper moisture return, this area is likely to change/shift some over the coming days as details become better resolved (and higher probabilities will likely become necessary as well). ...Day 7/Sat - Southeast vicinity... While the upper cyclone from Day 6/Fri will lift northeast over the Upper Great Lakes into Canada on Saturday, the base of the larger-scale upper trough over the southern Plains will eject east over the Southeast states. Convection will likely already be occurring ahead of the cold front, and will have access to deeper Gulf moisture downstream across MS/AL. The north and east extent of severe potential is uncertain as the evolution of the system on Friday will impact downstream potential. Nevertheless, the overall pattern will be favorable for a continuation of severe potential into Saturday given strong vertical shear overlapping a seasonally moist and at least modestly unstable airmass. ...Day 8/Sun - Mid-Atlantic vicinity... An upper trough will continue to shift east across the eastern U.S. on Sunday. While strong deep-layer flow will overspread the region in conjunction with a moist boundary-layer ahead of an eastward-advancing cold front, it is uncertain how much destabilization will be able to occur. Trends will be monitored for possible severe probabilities in the coming days, but current predictability is low. Read more

Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0335 AM CDT Sun Mar 09 2025 Valid 121200Z - 171200Z ...DISCUSSION... ...Day 4/Wed - ArkLaTex vicinity... A shortwave upper trough is forecast to develop east from the southern Rockies/northern Mexico to the Lower MS/TN Valley vicinity on Wednesday. Forecast guidance generally keep the stronger midlevel jet streak over central/southern TX into the Lower MS Valley. Surface cyclogenesis is expected to remain modest, but some increase in southerly low-level flow across the western Gulf with transport mid 50s to low 60s F dewpoints into the ArkLaTex and Ozark Plateau region. Cooling aloft will support steepening midlevel lapse rates, and this will contribute to modest elevated instability. Forecast soundings suggest boundary layer inhibition will likely subdue potential for surface-based convection. Nevertheless, some potential for isolated strong to severe storms capable of producing hail appears possible. Overall confidence in unconditional 15 percent probabilities is too low to delineate any severe area at this time, but some low-end probabilities may become necessary in subsequent outlooks. ...Day 6/Fri - Mid to Lower MS Valley vicinity... A powerful upper cyclone and attendant trough is expected to develop east across the Plains toward the MS Valley on Friday. An intense southwesterly jet (100+ kt at 500 mb) is expected to be oriented from the southern Plains to the Mid-MS Valley by Friday evening. Meanwhile, a rapidly intensifying surface cyclone will shift northeast from the central Plains to the Upper Midwest vicinity through the period. Strong southerly low-level flow ahead of this low and an attendant eastward-advancing cold front will support rapid northward transport of Gulf moisture. While details regarding quality of northward moisture transport remain, this overall pattern will be very favorable for a regional severe weather episode from late Friday afternoon into early Day 6/Sat morning. Overall, cross-model consistency has improved compared to the past couple of days, and guidance generally appears to be converging on similar solutions. When compared with the operational ECMWF, the operational GFS remains a bit further north with the placement of the low-level and upper-level cyclones, as well as northward extent of better moisture return. However, the GEFS and EPS ensemble means are quite similar. While this indicates there is still a moderate degree of spread in the north and east extent of severe potential, the envelop is narrowing, and a broad area favorable for an all-hazards severe episode is expected on Friday/Friday night, centered on the Mid to Lower MS Valley vicinity. This trends is also aligned with SPC and NSSL experimental machine learning guidance. Given uncertainties still exist regarding timing and location of key features, as well as with northward extent of deeper moisture return, this area is likely to change/shift some over the coming days as details become better resolved (and higher probabilities will likely become necessary as well). ...Day 7/Sat - Southeast vicinity... While the upper cyclone from Day 6/Fri will lift northeast over the Upper Great Lakes into Canada on Saturday, the base of the larger-scale upper trough over the southern Plains will eject east over the Southeast states. Convection will likely already be occurring ahead of the cold front, and will have access to deeper Gulf moisture downstream across MS/AL. The north and east extent of severe potential is uncertain as the evolution of the system on Friday will impact downstream potential. Nevertheless, the overall pattern will be favorable for a continuation of severe potential into Saturday given strong vertical shear overlapping a seasonally moist and at least modestly unstable airmass. ...Day 8/Sun - Mid-Atlantic vicinity... An upper trough will continue to shift east across the eastern U.S. on Sunday. While strong deep-layer flow will overspread the region in conjunction with a moist boundary-layer ahead of an eastward-advancing cold front, it is uncertain how much destabilization will be able to occur. Trends will be monitored for possible severe probabilities in the coming days, but current predictability is low. Read more

Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0335 AM CDT Sun Mar 09 2025 Valid 121200Z - 171200Z ...DISCUSSION... ...Day 4/Wed - ArkLaTex vicinity... A shortwave upper trough is forecast to develop east from the southern Rockies/northern Mexico to the Lower MS/TN Valley vicinity on Wednesday. Forecast guidance generally keep the stronger midlevel jet streak over central/southern TX into the Lower MS Valley. Surface cyclogenesis is expected to remain modest, but some increase in southerly low-level flow across the western Gulf with transport mid 50s to low 60s F dewpoints into the ArkLaTex and Ozark Plateau region. Cooling aloft will support steepening midlevel lapse rates, and this will contribute to modest elevated instability. Forecast soundings suggest boundary layer inhibition will likely subdue potential for surface-based convection. Nevertheless, some potential for isolated strong to severe storms capable of producing hail appears possible. Overall confidence in unconditional 15 percent probabilities is too low to delineate any severe area at this time, but some low-end probabilities may become necessary in subsequent outlooks. ...Day 6/Fri - Mid to Lower MS Valley vicinity... A powerful upper cyclone and attendant trough is expected to develop east across the Plains toward the MS Valley on Friday. An intense southwesterly jet (100+ kt at 500 mb) is expected to be oriented from the southern Plains to the Mid-MS Valley by Friday evening. Meanwhile, a rapidly intensifying surface cyclone will shift northeast from the central Plains to the Upper Midwest vicinity through the period. Strong southerly low-level flow ahead of this low and an attendant eastward-advancing cold front will support rapid northward transport of Gulf moisture. While details regarding quality of northward moisture transport remain, this overall pattern will be very favorable for a regional severe weather episode from late Friday afternoon into early Day 6/Sat morning. Overall, cross-model consistency has improved compared to the past couple of days, and guidance generally appears to be converging on similar solutions. When compared with the operational ECMWF, the operational GFS remains a bit further north with the placement of the low-level and upper-level cyclones, as well as northward extent of better moisture return. However, the GEFS and EPS ensemble means are quite similar. While this indicates there is still a moderate degree of spread in the north and east extent of severe potential, the envelop is narrowing, and a broad area favorable for an all-hazards severe episode is expected on Friday/Friday night, centered on the Mid to Lower MS Valley vicinity. This trends is also aligned with SPC and NSSL experimental machine learning guidance. Given uncertainties still exist regarding timing and location of key features, as well as with northward extent of deeper moisture return, this area is likely to change/shift some over the coming days as details become better resolved (and higher probabilities will likely become necessary as well). ...Day 7/Sat - Southeast vicinity... While the upper cyclone from Day 6/Fri will lift northeast over the Upper Great Lakes into Canada on Saturday, the base of the larger-scale upper trough over the southern Plains will eject east over the Southeast states. Convection will likely already be occurring ahead of the cold front, and will have access to deeper Gulf moisture downstream across MS/AL. The north and east extent of severe potential is uncertain as the evolution of the system on Friday will impact downstream potential. Nevertheless, the overall pattern will be favorable for a continuation of severe potential into Saturday given strong vertical shear overlapping a seasonally moist and at least modestly unstable airmass. ...Day 8/Sun - Mid-Atlantic vicinity... An upper trough will continue to shift east across the eastern U.S. on Sunday. While strong deep-layer flow will overspread the region in conjunction with a moist boundary-layer ahead of an eastward-advancing cold front, it is uncertain how much destabilization will be able to occur. Trends will be monitored for possible severe probabilities in the coming days, but current predictability is low. Read more

Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0335 AM CDT Sun Mar 09 2025 Valid 121200Z - 171200Z ...DISCUSSION... ...Day 4/Wed - ArkLaTex vicinity... A shortwave upper trough is forecast to develop east from the southern Rockies/northern Mexico to the Lower MS/TN Valley vicinity on Wednesday. Forecast guidance generally keep the stronger midlevel jet streak over central/southern TX into the Lower MS Valley. Surface cyclogenesis is expected to remain modest, but some increase in southerly low-level flow across the western Gulf with transport mid 50s to low 60s F dewpoints into the ArkLaTex and Ozark Plateau region. Cooling aloft will support steepening midlevel lapse rates, and this will contribute to modest elevated instability. Forecast soundings suggest boundary layer inhibition will likely subdue potential for surface-based convection. Nevertheless, some potential for isolated strong to severe storms capable of producing hail appears possible. Overall confidence in unconditional 15 percent probabilities is too low to delineate any severe area at this time, but some low-end probabilities may become necessary in subsequent outlooks. ...Day 6/Fri - Mid to Lower MS Valley vicinity... A powerful upper cyclone and attendant trough is expected to develop east across the Plains toward the MS Valley on Friday. An intense southwesterly jet (100+ kt at 500 mb) is expected to be oriented from the southern Plains to the Mid-MS Valley by Friday evening. Meanwhile, a rapidly intensifying surface cyclone will shift northeast from the central Plains to the Upper Midwest vicinity through the period. Strong southerly low-level flow ahead of this low and an attendant eastward-advancing cold front will support rapid northward transport of Gulf moisture. While details regarding quality of northward moisture transport remain, this overall pattern will be very favorable for a regional severe weather episode from late Friday afternoon into early Day 6/Sat morning. Overall, cross-model consistency has improved compared to the past couple of days, and guidance generally appears to be converging on similar solutions. When compared with the operational ECMWF, the operational GFS remains a bit further north with the placement of the low-level and upper-level cyclones, as well as northward extent of better moisture return. However, the GEFS and EPS ensemble means are quite similar. While this indicates there is still a moderate degree of spread in the north and east extent of severe potential, the envelop is narrowing, and a broad area favorable for an all-hazards severe episode is expected on Friday/Friday night, centered on the Mid to Lower MS Valley vicinity. This trends is also aligned with SPC and NSSL experimental machine learning guidance. Given uncertainties still exist regarding timing and location of key features, as well as with northward extent of deeper moisture return, this area is likely to change/shift some over the coming days as details become better resolved (and higher probabilities will likely become necessary as well). ...Day 7/Sat - Southeast vicinity... While the upper cyclone from Day 6/Fri will lift northeast over the Upper Great Lakes into Canada on Saturday, the base of the larger-scale upper trough over the southern Plains will eject east over the Southeast states. Convection will likely already be occurring ahead of the cold front, and will have access to deeper Gulf moisture downstream across MS/AL. The north and east extent of severe potential is uncertain as the evolution of the system on Friday will impact downstream potential. Nevertheless, the overall pattern will be favorable for a continuation of severe potential into Saturday given strong vertical shear overlapping a seasonally moist and at least modestly unstable airmass. ...Day 8/Sun - Mid-Atlantic vicinity... An upper trough will continue to shift east across the eastern U.S. on Sunday. While strong deep-layer flow will overspread the region in conjunction with a moist boundary-layer ahead of an eastward-advancing cold front, it is uncertain how much destabilization will be able to occur. Trends will be monitored for possible severe probabilities in the coming days, but current predictability is low. Read more

Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0335 AM CDT Sun Mar 09 2025 Valid 121200Z - 171200Z ...DISCUSSION... ...Day 4/Wed - ArkLaTex vicinity... A shortwave upper trough is forecast to develop east from the southern Rockies/northern Mexico to the Lower MS/TN Valley vicinity on Wednesday. Forecast guidance generally keep the stronger midlevel jet streak over central/southern TX into the Lower MS Valley. Surface cyclogenesis is expected to remain modest, but some increase in southerly low-level flow across the western Gulf with transport mid 50s to low 60s F dewpoints into the ArkLaTex and Ozark Plateau region. Cooling aloft will support steepening midlevel lapse rates, and this will contribute to modest elevated instability. Forecast soundings suggest boundary layer inhibition will likely subdue potential for surface-based convection. Nevertheless, some potential for isolated strong to severe storms capable of producing hail appears possible. Overall confidence in unconditional 15 percent probabilities is too low to delineate any severe area at this time, but some low-end probabilities may become necessary in subsequent outlooks. ...Day 6/Fri - Mid to Lower MS Valley vicinity... A powerful upper cyclone and attendant trough is expected to develop east across the Plains toward the MS Valley on Friday. An intense southwesterly jet (100+ kt at 500 mb) is expected to be oriented from the southern Plains to the Mid-MS Valley by Friday evening. Meanwhile, a rapidly intensifying surface cyclone will shift northeast from the central Plains to the Upper Midwest vicinity through the period. Strong southerly low-level flow ahead of this low and an attendant eastward-advancing cold front will support rapid northward transport of Gulf moisture. While details regarding quality of northward moisture transport remain, this overall pattern will be very favorable for a regional severe weather episode from late Friday afternoon into early Day 6/Sat morning. Overall, cross-model consistency has improved compared to the past couple of days, and guidance generally appears to be converging on similar solutions. When compared with the operational ECMWF, the operational GFS remains a bit further north with the placement of the low-level and upper-level cyclones, as well as northward extent of better moisture return. However, the GEFS and EPS ensemble means are quite similar. While this indicates there is still a moderate degree of spread in the north and east extent of severe potential, the envelop is narrowing, and a broad area favorable for an all-hazards severe episode is expected on Friday/Friday night, centered on the Mid to Lower MS Valley vicinity. This trends is also aligned with SPC and NSSL experimental machine learning guidance. Given uncertainties still exist regarding timing and location of key features, as well as with northward extent of deeper moisture return, this area is likely to change/shift some over the coming days as details become better resolved (and higher probabilities will likely become necessary as well). ...Day 7/Sat - Southeast vicinity... While the upper cyclone from Day 6/Fri will lift northeast over the Upper Great Lakes into Canada on Saturday, the base of the larger-scale upper trough over the southern Plains will eject east over the Southeast states. Convection will likely already be occurring ahead of the cold front, and will have access to deeper Gulf moisture downstream across MS/AL. The north and east extent of severe potential is uncertain as the evolution of the system on Friday will impact downstream potential. Nevertheless, the overall pattern will be favorable for a continuation of severe potential into Saturday given strong vertical shear overlapping a seasonally moist and at least modestly unstable airmass. ...Day 8/Sun - Mid-Atlantic vicinity... An upper trough will continue to shift east across the eastern U.S. on Sunday. While strong deep-layer flow will overspread the region in conjunction with a moist boundary-layer ahead of an eastward-advancing cold front, it is uncertain how much destabilization will be able to occur. Trends will be monitored for possible severe probabilities in the coming days, but current predictability is low. Read more

Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0335 AM CDT Sun Mar 09 2025 Valid 121200Z - 171200Z ...DISCUSSION... ...Day 4/Wed - ArkLaTex vicinity... A shortwave upper trough is forecast to develop east from the southern Rockies/northern Mexico to the Lower MS/TN Valley vicinity on Wednesday. Forecast guidance generally keep the stronger midlevel jet streak over central/southern TX into the Lower MS Valley. Surface cyclogenesis is expected to remain modest, but some increase in southerly low-level flow across the western Gulf with transport mid 50s to low 60s F dewpoints into the ArkLaTex and Ozark Plateau region. Cooling aloft will support steepening midlevel lapse rates, and this will contribute to modest elevated instability. Forecast soundings suggest boundary layer inhibition will likely subdue potential for surface-based convection. Nevertheless, some potential for isolated strong to severe storms capable of producing hail appears possible. Overall confidence in unconditional 15 percent probabilities is too low to delineate any severe area at this time, but some low-end probabilities may become necessary in subsequent outlooks. ...Day 6/Fri - Mid to Lower MS Valley vicinity... A powerful upper cyclone and attendant trough is expected to develop east across the Plains toward the MS Valley on Friday. An intense southwesterly jet (100+ kt at 500 mb) is expected to be oriented from the southern Plains to the Mid-MS Valley by Friday evening. Meanwhile, a rapidly intensifying surface cyclone will shift northeast from the central Plains to the Upper Midwest vicinity through the period. Strong southerly low-level flow ahead of this low and an attendant eastward-advancing cold front will support rapid northward transport of Gulf moisture. While details regarding quality of northward moisture transport remain, this overall pattern will be very favorable for a regional severe weather episode from late Friday afternoon into early Day 6/Sat morning. Overall, cross-model consistency has improved compared to the past couple of days, and guidance generally appears to be converging on similar solutions. When compared with the operational ECMWF, the operational GFS remains a bit further north with the placement of the low-level and upper-level cyclones, as well as northward extent of better moisture return. However, the GEFS and EPS ensemble means are quite similar. While this indicates there is still a moderate degree of spread in the north and east extent of severe potential, the envelop is narrowing, and a broad area favorable for an all-hazards severe episode is expected on Friday/Friday night, centered on the Mid to Lower MS Valley vicinity. This trends is also aligned with SPC and NSSL experimental machine learning guidance. Given uncertainties still exist regarding timing and location of key features, as well as with northward extent of deeper moisture return, this area is likely to change/shift some over the coming days as details become better resolved (and higher probabilities will likely become necessary as well). ...Day 7/Sat - Southeast vicinity... While the upper cyclone from Day 6/Fri will lift northeast over the Upper Great Lakes into Canada on Saturday, the base of the larger-scale upper trough over the southern Plains will eject east over the Southeast states. Convection will likely already be occurring ahead of the cold front, and will have access to deeper Gulf moisture downstream across MS/AL. The north and east extent of severe potential is uncertain as the evolution of the system on Friday will impact downstream potential. Nevertheless, the overall pattern will be favorable for a continuation of severe potential into Saturday given strong vertical shear overlapping a seasonally moist and at least modestly unstable airmass. ...Day 8/Sun - Mid-Atlantic vicinity... An upper trough will continue to shift east across the eastern U.S. on Sunday. While strong deep-layer flow will overspread the region in conjunction with a moist boundary-layer ahead of an eastward-advancing cold front, it is uncertain how much destabilization will be able to occur. Trends will be monitored for possible severe probabilities in the coming days, but current predictability is low. Read more

MD 0158 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY FOR PARTS OF SOUTHERN MS/AL INTO THE FL PANHANDLE
Mesoscale Discussion 0158 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0159 AM CST Sun Mar 09 2025 Areas affected...parts of southern MS/AL into the FL Panhandle Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely Valid 090759Z - 091030Z Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent SUMMARY...Strong to locally severe storms remain possible overnight. DISCUSSION...Scattered storms are ongoing early this morning from southern MS/AL into the FL Panhandle, within a modest low-level warm advection regime, and immediately in advance of a low-amplitude midlevel shortwave trough moving across the lower MS Valley. This convection is generally focused north of a front extending from coastal southeast LA to just offshore of southern MS/AL and the FL Panhandle. The richest low-level moisture (with dewpoints in the low 70s F) is confined to areas near/south of this front, with mid 60s F dewpoints extending inland immediately north of the front. Ongoing convection is likely somewhat elevated, but MUCAPE of 500-1000 J/kg and strong effective shear are providing a favorable environment for at least transient storm organization. The strongest cells overnight will be capable of producing small to marginally severe hail, especially across western portions of the MCD area where somewhat stronger instability is in place. Guidance suggests some increase in low-level flow (which is currently rather weak) is possible later this morning, which could aid in the development of localized strong/damaging gusts with time. ..Dean/Smith.. 03/09/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...TAE...MOB...LIX... LAT...LON 29888882 30428887 30708894 30948884 31198830 31068630 30818500 30598422 30478372 30128342 29708339 29548357 29458417 29458486 29728574 29888638 29868705 29848784 29888839 29888882 Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0142 AM CST Sun Mar 09 2025 Valid 101200Z - 111200Z ...Synopsis... Dry and windy conditions will be prevalent across much of the Great Plains on Monday, with some areas approaching or exceeding Critical meteorological conditions. However, recent wetting rainfall and poorly receptive fuels will be limiting factors across most of the areas discussed in the following sections, leaving only Elevated highlights in the forecast. ...Northern South Dakota into Southern North Dakota... At least some wildfire conditions are forecast for portions of the Dakotas on Monday, where winds antecedent to a southward moving cold front will reach 20-25 MPH with relative humidity around 15-20%. Current ERC fuels guidance suggest fuel receptiveness is poor, but given the lack of rainfall in the last week and the warm/dry conditions, fine fuels could be receptive enough for at least some wildfire danger. The post-frontal airmass will have much higher winds of 30-35 MPH, but also much higher relative humidity values. Given the limiting factors, only Elevated highlights have been introduced at this time. ...Western Nebraska... Over Western Nebraska, meteorological conditions could exceed Critical criteria, with winds of 20-25 MPH and relative humidity values between 10-15%. However, over the last week, the same regions have seen anywhere from 0.5-1.0 inches of rain, with some areas central and northern Nebraska currently having snow coverage. ERC fuel percentiles are also very low/poor, precluding any highlights at this time. ...South-Central Kansas into the Oklahoma and Texas Panhandles... Meteorological conditions supportive of Elevated fire-weather criteria are forecast for central and southern Kansas into the Texas and Oklahoma Panhandles. However, recent precipitation will limit the overall receptiveness of fuels to wildfire spread. ..Halbert.. 03/09/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0142 AM CST Sun Mar 09 2025 Valid 101200Z - 111200Z ...Synopsis... Dry and windy conditions will be prevalent across much of the Great Plains on Monday, with some areas approaching or exceeding Critical meteorological conditions. However, recent wetting rainfall and poorly receptive fuels will be limiting factors across most of the areas discussed in the following sections, leaving only Elevated highlights in the forecast. ...Northern South Dakota into Southern North Dakota... At least some wildfire conditions are forecast for portions of the Dakotas on Monday, where winds antecedent to a southward moving cold front will reach 20-25 MPH with relative humidity around 15-20%. Current ERC fuels guidance suggest fuel receptiveness is poor, but given the lack of rainfall in the last week and the warm/dry conditions, fine fuels could be receptive enough for at least some wildfire danger. The post-frontal airmass will have much higher winds of 30-35 MPH, but also much higher relative humidity values. Given the limiting factors, only Elevated highlights have been introduced at this time. ...Western Nebraska... Over Western Nebraska, meteorological conditions could exceed Critical criteria, with winds of 20-25 MPH and relative humidity values between 10-15%. However, over the last week, the same regions have seen anywhere from 0.5-1.0 inches of rain, with some areas central and northern Nebraska currently having snow coverage. ERC fuel percentiles are also very low/poor, precluding any highlights at this time. ...South-Central Kansas into the Oklahoma and Texas Panhandles... Meteorological conditions supportive of Elevated fire-weather criteria are forecast for central and southern Kansas into the Texas and Oklahoma Panhandles. However, recent precipitation will limit the overall receptiveness of fuels to wildfire spread. ..Halbert.. 03/09/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0142 AM CST Sun Mar 09 2025 Valid 101200Z - 111200Z ...Synopsis... Dry and windy conditions will be prevalent across much of the Great Plains on Monday, with some areas approaching or exceeding Critical meteorological conditions. However, recent wetting rainfall and poorly receptive fuels will be limiting factors across most of the areas discussed in the following sections, leaving only Elevated highlights in the forecast. ...Northern South Dakota into Southern North Dakota... At least some wildfire conditions are forecast for portions of the Dakotas on Monday, where winds antecedent to a southward moving cold front will reach 20-25 MPH with relative humidity around 15-20%. Current ERC fuels guidance suggest fuel receptiveness is poor, but given the lack of rainfall in the last week and the warm/dry conditions, fine fuels could be receptive enough for at least some wildfire danger. The post-frontal airmass will have much higher winds of 30-35 MPH, but also much higher relative humidity values. Given the limiting factors, only Elevated highlights have been introduced at this time. ...Western Nebraska... Over Western Nebraska, meteorological conditions could exceed Critical criteria, with winds of 20-25 MPH and relative humidity values between 10-15%. However, over the last week, the same regions have seen anywhere from 0.5-1.0 inches of rain, with some areas central and northern Nebraska currently having snow coverage. ERC fuel percentiles are also very low/poor, precluding any highlights at this time. ...South-Central Kansas into the Oklahoma and Texas Panhandles... Meteorological conditions supportive of Elevated fire-weather criteria are forecast for central and southern Kansas into the Texas and Oklahoma Panhandles. However, recent precipitation will limit the overall receptiveness of fuels to wildfire spread. ..Halbert.. 03/09/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more