Severe Storms

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0142 AM CST Sun Mar 09 2025 Valid 101200Z - 111200Z ...Synopsis... Dry and windy conditions will be prevalent across much of the Great Plains on Monday, with some areas approaching or exceeding Critical meteorological conditions. However, recent wetting rainfall and poorly receptive fuels will be limiting factors across most of the areas discussed in the following sections, leaving only Elevated highlights in the forecast. ...Northern South Dakota into Southern North Dakota... At least some wildfire conditions are forecast for portions of the Dakotas on Monday, where winds antecedent to a southward moving cold front will reach 20-25 MPH with relative humidity around 15-20%. Current ERC fuels guidance suggest fuel receptiveness is poor, but given the lack of rainfall in the last week and the warm/dry conditions, fine fuels could be receptive enough for at least some wildfire danger. The post-frontal airmass will have much higher winds of 30-35 MPH, but also much higher relative humidity values. Given the limiting factors, only Elevated highlights have been introduced at this time. ...Western Nebraska... Over Western Nebraska, meteorological conditions could exceed Critical criteria, with winds of 20-25 MPH and relative humidity values between 10-15%. However, over the last week, the same regions have seen anywhere from 0.5-1.0 inches of rain, with some areas central and northern Nebraska currently having snow coverage. ERC fuel percentiles are also very low/poor, precluding any highlights at this time. ...South-Central Kansas into the Oklahoma and Texas Panhandles... Meteorological conditions supportive of Elevated fire-weather criteria are forecast for central and southern Kansas into the Texas and Oklahoma Panhandles. However, recent precipitation will limit the overall receptiveness of fuels to wildfire spread. ..Halbert.. 03/09/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0142 AM CST Sun Mar 09 2025 Valid 101200Z - 111200Z ...Synopsis... Dry and windy conditions will be prevalent across much of the Great Plains on Monday, with some areas approaching or exceeding Critical meteorological conditions. However, recent wetting rainfall and poorly receptive fuels will be limiting factors across most of the areas discussed in the following sections, leaving only Elevated highlights in the forecast. ...Northern South Dakota into Southern North Dakota... At least some wildfire conditions are forecast for portions of the Dakotas on Monday, where winds antecedent to a southward moving cold front will reach 20-25 MPH with relative humidity around 15-20%. Current ERC fuels guidance suggest fuel receptiveness is poor, but given the lack of rainfall in the last week and the warm/dry conditions, fine fuels could be receptive enough for at least some wildfire danger. The post-frontal airmass will have much higher winds of 30-35 MPH, but also much higher relative humidity values. Given the limiting factors, only Elevated highlights have been introduced at this time. ...Western Nebraska... Over Western Nebraska, meteorological conditions could exceed Critical criteria, with winds of 20-25 MPH and relative humidity values between 10-15%. However, over the last week, the same regions have seen anywhere from 0.5-1.0 inches of rain, with some areas central and northern Nebraska currently having snow coverage. ERC fuel percentiles are also very low/poor, precluding any highlights at this time. ...South-Central Kansas into the Oklahoma and Texas Panhandles... Meteorological conditions supportive of Elevated fire-weather criteria are forecast for central and southern Kansas into the Texas and Oklahoma Panhandles. However, recent precipitation will limit the overall receptiveness of fuels to wildfire spread. ..Halbert.. 03/09/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0142 AM CST Sun Mar 09 2025 Valid 101200Z - 111200Z ...Synopsis... Dry and windy conditions will be prevalent across much of the Great Plains on Monday, with some areas approaching or exceeding Critical meteorological conditions. However, recent wetting rainfall and poorly receptive fuels will be limiting factors across most of the areas discussed in the following sections, leaving only Elevated highlights in the forecast. ...Northern South Dakota into Southern North Dakota... At least some wildfire conditions are forecast for portions of the Dakotas on Monday, where winds antecedent to a southward moving cold front will reach 20-25 MPH with relative humidity around 15-20%. Current ERC fuels guidance suggest fuel receptiveness is poor, but given the lack of rainfall in the last week and the warm/dry conditions, fine fuels could be receptive enough for at least some wildfire danger. The post-frontal airmass will have much higher winds of 30-35 MPH, but also much higher relative humidity values. Given the limiting factors, only Elevated highlights have been introduced at this time. ...Western Nebraska... Over Western Nebraska, meteorological conditions could exceed Critical criteria, with winds of 20-25 MPH and relative humidity values between 10-15%. However, over the last week, the same regions have seen anywhere from 0.5-1.0 inches of rain, with some areas central and northern Nebraska currently having snow coverage. ERC fuel percentiles are also very low/poor, precluding any highlights at this time. ...South-Central Kansas into the Oklahoma and Texas Panhandles... Meteorological conditions supportive of Elevated fire-weather criteria are forecast for central and southern Kansas into the Texas and Oklahoma Panhandles. However, recent precipitation will limit the overall receptiveness of fuels to wildfire spread. ..Halbert.. 03/09/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0142 AM CST Sun Mar 09 2025 Valid 091200Z - 101200Z ...Synopsis... A few areas of Elevated fire-weather conditions are expected today, though a few factors in each area are keeping the overall fire-danger threat limited. ...Lower/Middle Rio Grande Valley... As a surface low tracks along the Gulf Coast and consequently a cold front moves offshore, winds of 15-20 MPH are expected across far south-central Texas during the afternoon and early evening. High-resolution ensemble guidance keeps relative humidity values on the higher side of 25-30%, but given generally receptive fuels and a lack of recent rainfall, Elevated highlights have been maintained. ...Northern South Dakota into Southern North Dakota... West-southwesterly surface winds beneath a mid-level ridge will result in some warming and drying across portions of the Northern Great Plains, particularly north-central South Dakota into southern North Dakota. Relative humidity values are expected to be within the range of 15-20%, and although current ERC fuels guidance suggests fuels are not overly receptive to wildfire spread, the region has generally been absent of rainfall and fine fuels should be sufficiently cured for at least some wildfire threat. Given the uncertainty with the fuels, only Elevated highlights have been maintained at this time. ...Mid Atlantic... High-resolution ensemble guidance suggests some low-end probabilities of Elevated conditions across portions of southeastern Pennsylvania, New Jersey, northeastern Maryland, and Delaware. Winds of 15-20 MPH are consistent across the HREF ensemble, but there are only a few members with relative humidity values below 30%. Pending future forecast guidance and local fuels information, introduction of Elevated highlights may be warranted in the next update. ..Halbert.. 03/09/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0142 AM CST Sun Mar 09 2025 Valid 091200Z - 101200Z ...Synopsis... A few areas of Elevated fire-weather conditions are expected today, though a few factors in each area are keeping the overall fire-danger threat limited. ...Lower/Middle Rio Grande Valley... As a surface low tracks along the Gulf Coast and consequently a cold front moves offshore, winds of 15-20 MPH are expected across far south-central Texas during the afternoon and early evening. High-resolution ensemble guidance keeps relative humidity values on the higher side of 25-30%, but given generally receptive fuels and a lack of recent rainfall, Elevated highlights have been maintained. ...Northern South Dakota into Southern North Dakota... West-southwesterly surface winds beneath a mid-level ridge will result in some warming and drying across portions of the Northern Great Plains, particularly north-central South Dakota into southern North Dakota. Relative humidity values are expected to be within the range of 15-20%, and although current ERC fuels guidance suggests fuels are not overly receptive to wildfire spread, the region has generally been absent of rainfall and fine fuels should be sufficiently cured for at least some wildfire threat. Given the uncertainty with the fuels, only Elevated highlights have been maintained at this time. ...Mid Atlantic... High-resolution ensemble guidance suggests some low-end probabilities of Elevated conditions across portions of southeastern Pennsylvania, New Jersey, northeastern Maryland, and Delaware. Winds of 15-20 MPH are consistent across the HREF ensemble, but there are only a few members with relative humidity values below 30%. Pending future forecast guidance and local fuels information, introduction of Elevated highlights may be warranted in the next update. ..Halbert.. 03/09/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0142 AM CST Sun Mar 09 2025 Valid 091200Z - 101200Z ...Synopsis... A few areas of Elevated fire-weather conditions are expected today, though a few factors in each area are keeping the overall fire-danger threat limited. ...Lower/Middle Rio Grande Valley... As a surface low tracks along the Gulf Coast and consequently a cold front moves offshore, winds of 15-20 MPH are expected across far south-central Texas during the afternoon and early evening. High-resolution ensemble guidance keeps relative humidity values on the higher side of 25-30%, but given generally receptive fuels and a lack of recent rainfall, Elevated highlights have been maintained. ...Northern South Dakota into Southern North Dakota... West-southwesterly surface winds beneath a mid-level ridge will result in some warming and drying across portions of the Northern Great Plains, particularly north-central South Dakota into southern North Dakota. Relative humidity values are expected to be within the range of 15-20%, and although current ERC fuels guidance suggests fuels are not overly receptive to wildfire spread, the region has generally been absent of rainfall and fine fuels should be sufficiently cured for at least some wildfire threat. Given the uncertainty with the fuels, only Elevated highlights have been maintained at this time. ...Mid Atlantic... High-resolution ensemble guidance suggests some low-end probabilities of Elevated conditions across portions of southeastern Pennsylvania, New Jersey, northeastern Maryland, and Delaware. Winds of 15-20 MPH are consistent across the HREF ensemble, but there are only a few members with relative humidity values below 30%. Pending future forecast guidance and local fuels information, introduction of Elevated highlights may be warranted in the next update. ..Halbert.. 03/09/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0142 AM CST Sun Mar 09 2025 Valid 091200Z - 101200Z ...Synopsis... A few areas of Elevated fire-weather conditions are expected today, though a few factors in each area are keeping the overall fire-danger threat limited. ...Lower/Middle Rio Grande Valley... As a surface low tracks along the Gulf Coast and consequently a cold front moves offshore, winds of 15-20 MPH are expected across far south-central Texas during the afternoon and early evening. High-resolution ensemble guidance keeps relative humidity values on the higher side of 25-30%, but given generally receptive fuels and a lack of recent rainfall, Elevated highlights have been maintained. ...Northern South Dakota into Southern North Dakota... West-southwesterly surface winds beneath a mid-level ridge will result in some warming and drying across portions of the Northern Great Plains, particularly north-central South Dakota into southern North Dakota. Relative humidity values are expected to be within the range of 15-20%, and although current ERC fuels guidance suggests fuels are not overly receptive to wildfire spread, the region has generally been absent of rainfall and fine fuels should be sufficiently cured for at least some wildfire threat. Given the uncertainty with the fuels, only Elevated highlights have been maintained at this time. ...Mid Atlantic... High-resolution ensemble guidance suggests some low-end probabilities of Elevated conditions across portions of southeastern Pennsylvania, New Jersey, northeastern Maryland, and Delaware. Winds of 15-20 MPH are consistent across the HREF ensemble, but there are only a few members with relative humidity values below 30%. Pending future forecast guidance and local fuels information, introduction of Elevated highlights may be warranted in the next update. ..Halbert.. 03/09/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0142 AM CST Sun Mar 09 2025 Valid 091200Z - 101200Z ...Synopsis... A few areas of Elevated fire-weather conditions are expected today, though a few factors in each area are keeping the overall fire-danger threat limited. ...Lower/Middle Rio Grande Valley... As a surface low tracks along the Gulf Coast and consequently a cold front moves offshore, winds of 15-20 MPH are expected across far south-central Texas during the afternoon and early evening. High-resolution ensemble guidance keeps relative humidity values on the higher side of 25-30%, but given generally receptive fuels and a lack of recent rainfall, Elevated highlights have been maintained. ...Northern South Dakota into Southern North Dakota... West-southwesterly surface winds beneath a mid-level ridge will result in some warming and drying across portions of the Northern Great Plains, particularly north-central South Dakota into southern North Dakota. Relative humidity values are expected to be within the range of 15-20%, and although current ERC fuels guidance suggests fuels are not overly receptive to wildfire spread, the region has generally been absent of rainfall and fine fuels should be sufficiently cured for at least some wildfire threat. Given the uncertainty with the fuels, only Elevated highlights have been maintained at this time. ...Mid Atlantic... High-resolution ensemble guidance suggests some low-end probabilities of Elevated conditions across portions of southeastern Pennsylvania, New Jersey, northeastern Maryland, and Delaware. Winds of 15-20 MPH are consistent across the HREF ensemble, but there are only a few members with relative humidity values below 30%. Pending future forecast guidance and local fuels information, introduction of Elevated highlights may be warranted in the next update. ..Halbert.. 03/09/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0142 AM CST Sun Mar 09 2025 Valid 091200Z - 101200Z ...Synopsis... A few areas of Elevated fire-weather conditions are expected today, though a few factors in each area are keeping the overall fire-danger threat limited. ...Lower/Middle Rio Grande Valley... As a surface low tracks along the Gulf Coast and consequently a cold front moves offshore, winds of 15-20 MPH are expected across far south-central Texas during the afternoon and early evening. High-resolution ensemble guidance keeps relative humidity values on the higher side of 25-30%, but given generally receptive fuels and a lack of recent rainfall, Elevated highlights have been maintained. ...Northern South Dakota into Southern North Dakota... West-southwesterly surface winds beneath a mid-level ridge will result in some warming and drying across portions of the Northern Great Plains, particularly north-central South Dakota into southern North Dakota. Relative humidity values are expected to be within the range of 15-20%, and although current ERC fuels guidance suggests fuels are not overly receptive to wildfire spread, the region has generally been absent of rainfall and fine fuels should be sufficiently cured for at least some wildfire threat. Given the uncertainty with the fuels, only Elevated highlights have been maintained at this time. ...Mid Atlantic... High-resolution ensemble guidance suggests some low-end probabilities of Elevated conditions across portions of southeastern Pennsylvania, New Jersey, northeastern Maryland, and Delaware. Winds of 15-20 MPH are consistent across the HREF ensemble, but there are only a few members with relative humidity values below 30%. Pending future forecast guidance and local fuels information, introduction of Elevated highlights may be warranted in the next update. ..Halbert.. 03/09/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0142 AM CST Sun Mar 09 2025 Valid 091200Z - 101200Z ...Synopsis... A few areas of Elevated fire-weather conditions are expected today, though a few factors in each area are keeping the overall fire-danger threat limited. ...Lower/Middle Rio Grande Valley... As a surface low tracks along the Gulf Coast and consequently a cold front moves offshore, winds of 15-20 MPH are expected across far south-central Texas during the afternoon and early evening. High-resolution ensemble guidance keeps relative humidity values on the higher side of 25-30%, but given generally receptive fuels and a lack of recent rainfall, Elevated highlights have been maintained. ...Northern South Dakota into Southern North Dakota... West-southwesterly surface winds beneath a mid-level ridge will result in some warming and drying across portions of the Northern Great Plains, particularly north-central South Dakota into southern North Dakota. Relative humidity values are expected to be within the range of 15-20%, and although current ERC fuels guidance suggests fuels are not overly receptive to wildfire spread, the region has generally been absent of rainfall and fine fuels should be sufficiently cured for at least some wildfire threat. Given the uncertainty with the fuels, only Elevated highlights have been maintained at this time. ...Mid Atlantic... High-resolution ensemble guidance suggests some low-end probabilities of Elevated conditions across portions of southeastern Pennsylvania, New Jersey, northeastern Maryland, and Delaware. Winds of 15-20 MPH are consistent across the HREF ensemble, but there are only a few members with relative humidity values below 30%. Pending future forecast guidance and local fuels information, introduction of Elevated highlights may be warranted in the next update. ..Halbert.. 03/09/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC 0830Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1258 AM CST Sun Mar 09 2025 Valid 111200Z - 121200Z ...NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorms are not expected on Tuesday. ...Synopsis... Generally low-amplitude westerly mid/upper flow will develop over the Plains and Southeast on Tuesday ahead of an upper shortwave trough moving across the Southwest to southern Rockies. At the surface, a prior cold frontal passage deep into the Gulf and high pressure centered over the eastern Gulf will result in a dry airmass persisting for much of the period. Southerly low-level flow will increase across the western Gulf into the southern Plains late in the forecast period, allowing for some very modest northward transport of shallow Gulf moisture into south/coastal TX. However, thunderstorms are not expected in this warm advection regime as considerable dry air will remain in mid and upper levels through early Wednesday morning. ..Leitman.. 03/09/2025 Read more

SPC 0830Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1258 AM CST Sun Mar 09 2025 Valid 111200Z - 121200Z ...NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorms are not expected on Tuesday. ...Synopsis... Generally low-amplitude westerly mid/upper flow will develop over the Plains and Southeast on Tuesday ahead of an upper shortwave trough moving across the Southwest to southern Rockies. At the surface, a prior cold frontal passage deep into the Gulf and high pressure centered over the eastern Gulf will result in a dry airmass persisting for much of the period. Southerly low-level flow will increase across the western Gulf into the southern Plains late in the forecast period, allowing for some very modest northward transport of shallow Gulf moisture into south/coastal TX. However, thunderstorms are not expected in this warm advection regime as considerable dry air will remain in mid and upper levels through early Wednesday morning. ..Leitman.. 03/09/2025 Read more

SPC 0830Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1258 AM CST Sun Mar 09 2025 Valid 111200Z - 121200Z ...NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorms are not expected on Tuesday. ...Synopsis... Generally low-amplitude westerly mid/upper flow will develop over the Plains and Southeast on Tuesday ahead of an upper shortwave trough moving across the Southwest to southern Rockies. At the surface, a prior cold frontal passage deep into the Gulf and high pressure centered over the eastern Gulf will result in a dry airmass persisting for much of the period. Southerly low-level flow will increase across the western Gulf into the southern Plains late in the forecast period, allowing for some very modest northward transport of shallow Gulf moisture into south/coastal TX. However, thunderstorms are not expected in this warm advection regime as considerable dry air will remain in mid and upper levels through early Wednesday morning. ..Leitman.. 03/09/2025 Read more

SPC 0830Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1258 AM CST Sun Mar 09 2025 Valid 111200Z - 121200Z ...NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorms are not expected on Tuesday. ...Synopsis... Generally low-amplitude westerly mid/upper flow will develop over the Plains and Southeast on Tuesday ahead of an upper shortwave trough moving across the Southwest to southern Rockies. At the surface, a prior cold frontal passage deep into the Gulf and high pressure centered over the eastern Gulf will result in a dry airmass persisting for much of the period. Southerly low-level flow will increase across the western Gulf into the southern Plains late in the forecast period, allowing for some very modest northward transport of shallow Gulf moisture into south/coastal TX. However, thunderstorms are not expected in this warm advection regime as considerable dry air will remain in mid and upper levels through early Wednesday morning. ..Leitman.. 03/09/2025 Read more

SPC 0830Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1258 AM CST Sun Mar 09 2025 Valid 111200Z - 121200Z ...NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorms are not expected on Tuesday. ...Synopsis... Generally low-amplitude westerly mid/upper flow will develop over the Plains and Southeast on Tuesday ahead of an upper shortwave trough moving across the Southwest to southern Rockies. At the surface, a prior cold frontal passage deep into the Gulf and high pressure centered over the eastern Gulf will result in a dry airmass persisting for much of the period. Southerly low-level flow will increase across the western Gulf into the southern Plains late in the forecast period, allowing for some very modest northward transport of shallow Gulf moisture into south/coastal TX. However, thunderstorms are not expected in this warm advection regime as considerable dry air will remain in mid and upper levels through early Wednesday morning. ..Leitman.. 03/09/2025 Read more

SPC 0830Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1258 AM CST Sun Mar 09 2025 Valid 111200Z - 121200Z ...NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorms are not expected on Tuesday. ...Synopsis... Generally low-amplitude westerly mid/upper flow will develop over the Plains and Southeast on Tuesday ahead of an upper shortwave trough moving across the Southwest to southern Rockies. At the surface, a prior cold frontal passage deep into the Gulf and high pressure centered over the eastern Gulf will result in a dry airmass persisting for much of the period. Southerly low-level flow will increase across the western Gulf into the southern Plains late in the forecast period, allowing for some very modest northward transport of shallow Gulf moisture into south/coastal TX. However, thunderstorms are not expected in this warm advection regime as considerable dry air will remain in mid and upper levels through early Wednesday morning. ..Leitman.. 03/09/2025 Read more

SPC 0830Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1258 AM CST Sun Mar 09 2025 Valid 111200Z - 121200Z ...NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorms are not expected on Tuesday. ...Synopsis... Generally low-amplitude westerly mid/upper flow will develop over the Plains and Southeast on Tuesday ahead of an upper shortwave trough moving across the Southwest to southern Rockies. At the surface, a prior cold frontal passage deep into the Gulf and high pressure centered over the eastern Gulf will result in a dry airmass persisting for much of the period. Southerly low-level flow will increase across the western Gulf into the southern Plains late in the forecast period, allowing for some very modest northward transport of shallow Gulf moisture into south/coastal TX. However, thunderstorms are not expected in this warm advection regime as considerable dry air will remain in mid and upper levels through early Wednesday morning. ..Leitman.. 03/09/2025 Read more

SPC 0700Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1152 PM CST Sat Mar 08 2025 Valid 101200Z - 111200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Isolated thunderstorms are possible across portions of the Florida Peninsula and parts of the Carolinas on Monday. Severe storms are not expected. ...Synopsis... An upper low over AL Monday morning will shift east, moving offshore over the Gulf Stream by evening. At the surface, a low near the GA coast will deepen as it shifts northeast over the Atlantic, and a trailing cold front will develop southward across the FL Peninsula. Isolated thunderstorms may be ongoing near the cold front Monday morning and continue sporadically into the afternoon with southward extent. Deep-layer flow will be moderately strong, but mostly parallel to the cold front. Meanwhile, warm midlevel temperatures across FL will result in modest midlevel lapse rates, limiting instability (generally less than 750 J/kg MLCAPE). This will largely limit severe potential, though a brief strong storm or two could produce gusty winds. Further north, isolated thunderstorms are possible across parts of the Carolinas closer to the surface and upper low. Cold temperatures aloft will result in steep midlevel lapse rates and MUCAPE around 200-400 J/kg. Severe storms are not expected but a couple instances of small hail will be possible with mainly elevated convection through the afternoon. ..Leitman.. 03/09/2025 Read more

SPC 0700Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1152 PM CST Sat Mar 08 2025 Valid 101200Z - 111200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Isolated thunderstorms are possible across portions of the Florida Peninsula and parts of the Carolinas on Monday. Severe storms are not expected. ...Synopsis... An upper low over AL Monday morning will shift east, moving offshore over the Gulf Stream by evening. At the surface, a low near the GA coast will deepen as it shifts northeast over the Atlantic, and a trailing cold front will develop southward across the FL Peninsula. Isolated thunderstorms may be ongoing near the cold front Monday morning and continue sporadically into the afternoon with southward extent. Deep-layer flow will be moderately strong, but mostly parallel to the cold front. Meanwhile, warm midlevel temperatures across FL will result in modest midlevel lapse rates, limiting instability (generally less than 750 J/kg MLCAPE). This will largely limit severe potential, though a brief strong storm or two could produce gusty winds. Further north, isolated thunderstorms are possible across parts of the Carolinas closer to the surface and upper low. Cold temperatures aloft will result in steep midlevel lapse rates and MUCAPE around 200-400 J/kg. Severe storms are not expected but a couple instances of small hail will be possible with mainly elevated convection through the afternoon. ..Leitman.. 03/09/2025 Read more

SPC 0700Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1152 PM CST Sat Mar 08 2025 Valid 101200Z - 111200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Isolated thunderstorms are possible across portions of the Florida Peninsula and parts of the Carolinas on Monday. Severe storms are not expected. ...Synopsis... An upper low over AL Monday morning will shift east, moving offshore over the Gulf Stream by evening. At the surface, a low near the GA coast will deepen as it shifts northeast over the Atlantic, and a trailing cold front will develop southward across the FL Peninsula. Isolated thunderstorms may be ongoing near the cold front Monday morning and continue sporadically into the afternoon with southward extent. Deep-layer flow will be moderately strong, but mostly parallel to the cold front. Meanwhile, warm midlevel temperatures across FL will result in modest midlevel lapse rates, limiting instability (generally less than 750 J/kg MLCAPE). This will largely limit severe potential, though a brief strong storm or two could produce gusty winds. Further north, isolated thunderstorms are possible across parts of the Carolinas closer to the surface and upper low. Cold temperatures aloft will result in steep midlevel lapse rates and MUCAPE around 200-400 J/kg. Severe storms are not expected but a couple instances of small hail will be possible with mainly elevated convection through the afternoon. ..Leitman.. 03/09/2025 Read more