Severe Storms

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1116 AM CDT Mon Mar 10 2025 Valid 101630Z - 111200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN FL PENINSULA THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorms associated with an isolated risk for severe gusts, and potentially a tornado, will be possible across the central and southern Florida Peninsula this afternoon and evening. ...Central/Southern FL Peninsula... Recent surface analysis places a low just off the GA Coast, with a cold front extending southwestward from this low across far southeast GA and western north FL into the northeastern Gulf. A relatively broad surface trough (and modest wind shift) exists ahead of this front across the central FL Peninsula. Thunderstorms are currently ongoing within the area of low-level confluence and moisture convergence, which extends well offshore. The downstream airmass across central and southern FL is currently characterized by temperatures in the upper 70s to mid 80s, and dewpoints in the low 70s. Overall buoyancy within these warm and moist conditions is currently mitigated somewhat by warm temperatures aloft, which were sampled well by the 12Z MFL sounding. Even so, enough boundary-layer warming appears likely throughout the day to maintain modest destabilization within at least a narrow corridor of higher pre-frontal moisture content. Continued thunderstorm development is anticipated within this corridor as it gradually shifts southward/southeastward this afternoon and evening. Strong low to mid-level flow will persist across the peninsula, with a resulting persistence of deep-layer vertical shear. As such, the environment will remain favorable for isolated to widely scattered supercell development. Damaging wind gusts will be the primary risk from these storms. Modest clockwise-curved low-level hodographs suggest a short-lived tornado or two is also possible throughout the day, but these hodographs are forecast to shrink with southern extent as surface to 850 mb flow veers to a more westerly component and begins to weaken some. As mentioned in the recently issued MCD #0161, the near coastal areas between Palm Beach and Vero Beach appear to have the greatest (although still relatively low) tornado risk this afternoon. ..Mosier/Wendt.. 03/10/2025 Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1116 AM CDT Mon Mar 10 2025 Valid 101630Z - 111200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN FL PENINSULA THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorms associated with an isolated risk for severe gusts, and potentially a tornado, will be possible across the central and southern Florida Peninsula this afternoon and evening. ...Central/Southern FL Peninsula... Recent surface analysis places a low just off the GA Coast, with a cold front extending southwestward from this low across far southeast GA and western north FL into the northeastern Gulf. A relatively broad surface trough (and modest wind shift) exists ahead of this front across the central FL Peninsula. Thunderstorms are currently ongoing within the area of low-level confluence and moisture convergence, which extends well offshore. The downstream airmass across central and southern FL is currently characterized by temperatures in the upper 70s to mid 80s, and dewpoints in the low 70s. Overall buoyancy within these warm and moist conditions is currently mitigated somewhat by warm temperatures aloft, which were sampled well by the 12Z MFL sounding. Even so, enough boundary-layer warming appears likely throughout the day to maintain modest destabilization within at least a narrow corridor of higher pre-frontal moisture content. Continued thunderstorm development is anticipated within this corridor as it gradually shifts southward/southeastward this afternoon and evening. Strong low to mid-level flow will persist across the peninsula, with a resulting persistence of deep-layer vertical shear. As such, the environment will remain favorable for isolated to widely scattered supercell development. Damaging wind gusts will be the primary risk from these storms. Modest clockwise-curved low-level hodographs suggest a short-lived tornado or two is also possible throughout the day, but these hodographs are forecast to shrink with southern extent as surface to 850 mb flow veers to a more westerly component and begins to weaken some. As mentioned in the recently issued MCD #0161, the near coastal areas between Palm Beach and Vero Beach appear to have the greatest (although still relatively low) tornado risk this afternoon. ..Mosier/Wendt.. 03/10/2025 Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1116 AM CDT Mon Mar 10 2025 Valid 101630Z - 111200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN FL PENINSULA THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorms associated with an isolated risk for severe gusts, and potentially a tornado, will be possible across the central and southern Florida Peninsula this afternoon and evening. ...Central/Southern FL Peninsula... Recent surface analysis places a low just off the GA Coast, with a cold front extending southwestward from this low across far southeast GA and western north FL into the northeastern Gulf. A relatively broad surface trough (and modest wind shift) exists ahead of this front across the central FL Peninsula. Thunderstorms are currently ongoing within the area of low-level confluence and moisture convergence, which extends well offshore. The downstream airmass across central and southern FL is currently characterized by temperatures in the upper 70s to mid 80s, and dewpoints in the low 70s. Overall buoyancy within these warm and moist conditions is currently mitigated somewhat by warm temperatures aloft, which were sampled well by the 12Z MFL sounding. Even so, enough boundary-layer warming appears likely throughout the day to maintain modest destabilization within at least a narrow corridor of higher pre-frontal moisture content. Continued thunderstorm development is anticipated within this corridor as it gradually shifts southward/southeastward this afternoon and evening. Strong low to mid-level flow will persist across the peninsula, with a resulting persistence of deep-layer vertical shear. As such, the environment will remain favorable for isolated to widely scattered supercell development. Damaging wind gusts will be the primary risk from these storms. Modest clockwise-curved low-level hodographs suggest a short-lived tornado or two is also possible throughout the day, but these hodographs are forecast to shrink with southern extent as surface to 850 mb flow veers to a more westerly component and begins to weaken some. As mentioned in the recently issued MCD #0161, the near coastal areas between Palm Beach and Vero Beach appear to have the greatest (although still relatively low) tornado risk this afternoon. ..Mosier/Wendt.. 03/10/2025 Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1116 AM CDT Mon Mar 10 2025 Valid 101630Z - 111200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN FL PENINSULA THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorms associated with an isolated risk for severe gusts, and potentially a tornado, will be possible across the central and southern Florida Peninsula this afternoon and evening. ...Central/Southern FL Peninsula... Recent surface analysis places a low just off the GA Coast, with a cold front extending southwestward from this low across far southeast GA and western north FL into the northeastern Gulf. A relatively broad surface trough (and modest wind shift) exists ahead of this front across the central FL Peninsula. Thunderstorms are currently ongoing within the area of low-level confluence and moisture convergence, which extends well offshore. The downstream airmass across central and southern FL is currently characterized by temperatures in the upper 70s to mid 80s, and dewpoints in the low 70s. Overall buoyancy within these warm and moist conditions is currently mitigated somewhat by warm temperatures aloft, which were sampled well by the 12Z MFL sounding. Even so, enough boundary-layer warming appears likely throughout the day to maintain modest destabilization within at least a narrow corridor of higher pre-frontal moisture content. Continued thunderstorm development is anticipated within this corridor as it gradually shifts southward/southeastward this afternoon and evening. Strong low to mid-level flow will persist across the peninsula, with a resulting persistence of deep-layer vertical shear. As such, the environment will remain favorable for isolated to widely scattered supercell development. Damaging wind gusts will be the primary risk from these storms. Modest clockwise-curved low-level hodographs suggest a short-lived tornado or two is also possible throughout the day, but these hodographs are forecast to shrink with southern extent as surface to 850 mb flow veers to a more westerly component and begins to weaken some. As mentioned in the recently issued MCD #0161, the near coastal areas between Palm Beach and Vero Beach appear to have the greatest (although still relatively low) tornado risk this afternoon. ..Mosier/Wendt.. 03/10/2025 Read more

MD 0160 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY FOR PARTS OF THE NORTHERN FL PENINSULA
Mesoscale Discussion 0160 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0633 AM CDT Mon Mar 10 2025 Areas affected...Parts of the northern FL Peninsula Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely Valid 101133Z - 101400Z Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent SUMMARY...Isolated strong to locally severe storms are possible this morning. DISCUSSION...At 11 UTC, a warm front draped across the northern FL peninsula is gradually moving northward. Along/south of this boundary, dewpoints near 70 F are supporting MLCAPE of near/above 500 J/kg, despite the presence of generally weak low/midlevel lapse rates. While deep-layer shear is more than sufficient to support organized convection, storms have generally remained disorganized thus far, likely due in part to the weak lapse rates and lack of stronger large-scale ascent across the area. Some increase in large-scale ascent is expected through the morning, as a positive-tilt midlevel shortwave trough approaches the region, and a frontal wave moves eastward across the northern peninsula. With time, more vigorous storm development will be possible along/ahead of a cold front approaching the FL Gulf Coast, and a few stronger cells/clusters may evolve. 0-1 km SRH in excess of 200 m2/s2 (as noted on the KTBW VWP) will support at least a brief tornado threat if any supercells can be sustained, with localized strong/damaging gusts and small to near-severe hail also possible. The magnitude/coverage of the severe threat remains uncertain and potentially limited, due to generally weak lapse rates and modest buoyancy. However, observational trends will continue to be monitored for the potential of storm organization within a diurnally destabilizing environment later this morning. ..Dean/Smith.. 03/10/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...MFL...MLB...TBW...JAX...TAE... LAT...LON 29748108 28648102 27378138 26658167 26428187 26508222 26728233 27038244 27878285 28288298 28898313 29248325 29808242 30158194 30238143 29748108 Read more

SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0725 AM CDT Mon Mar 10 2025 Valid 101300Z - 111200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR NORTHERN AND CENTRAL PORTIONS OF THE FLORIDA PENINSULA... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorms associated with an isolated risk for severe gusts, and potentially a tornado, will be possible through early afternoon in parts of north and central Florida. ...FL Peninsula... Morning satellite/radar analysis shows a mid-level trough over AL/MS moving east-southeast towards FL, while a broken band of pre-frontal showers/storms extends from parts of north FL south-southwestward into the eastern Gulf west of Fort Myers. The mid-level trough will move over the Peninsula by early evening. A cold front is forecast to push southeast across the northern and central portions of the Peninsula through mid afternoon and coincide with thunderstorm development pushing east of the FL east coast. In the meantime, moist/southerly low-level flow will maintain a reservoir of moderate buoyancy (1200 J/kg MLCAPE per the 12 UTC Tampa Bay raob). Strong mid- to high-level flow will aid in storm organization contingent on adequately strong/sustained updraft development. An isolated threat for locally strong to severe thunderstorms will seemingly exist prior to storms exiting the east coast later this afternoon. ..Smith/Dean.. 03/10/2025 Read more

SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0725 AM CDT Mon Mar 10 2025 Valid 101300Z - 111200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR NORTHERN AND CENTRAL PORTIONS OF THE FLORIDA PENINSULA... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorms associated with an isolated risk for severe gusts, and potentially a tornado, will be possible through early afternoon in parts of north and central Florida. ...FL Peninsula... Morning satellite/radar analysis shows a mid-level trough over AL/MS moving east-southeast towards FL, while a broken band of pre-frontal showers/storms extends from parts of north FL south-southwestward into the eastern Gulf west of Fort Myers. The mid-level trough will move over the Peninsula by early evening. A cold front is forecast to push southeast across the northern and central portions of the Peninsula through mid afternoon and coincide with thunderstorm development pushing east of the FL east coast. In the meantime, moist/southerly low-level flow will maintain a reservoir of moderate buoyancy (1200 J/kg MLCAPE per the 12 UTC Tampa Bay raob). Strong mid- to high-level flow will aid in storm organization contingent on adequately strong/sustained updraft development. An isolated threat for locally strong to severe thunderstorms will seemingly exist prior to storms exiting the east coast later this afternoon. ..Smith/Dean.. 03/10/2025 Read more

SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0725 AM CDT Mon Mar 10 2025 Valid 101300Z - 111200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR NORTHERN AND CENTRAL PORTIONS OF THE FLORIDA PENINSULA... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorms associated with an isolated risk for severe gusts, and potentially a tornado, will be possible through early afternoon in parts of north and central Florida. ...FL Peninsula... Morning satellite/radar analysis shows a mid-level trough over AL/MS moving east-southeast towards FL, while a broken band of pre-frontal showers/storms extends from parts of north FL south-southwestward into the eastern Gulf west of Fort Myers. The mid-level trough will move over the Peninsula by early evening. A cold front is forecast to push southeast across the northern and central portions of the Peninsula through mid afternoon and coincide with thunderstorm development pushing east of the FL east coast. In the meantime, moist/southerly low-level flow will maintain a reservoir of moderate buoyancy (1200 J/kg MLCAPE per the 12 UTC Tampa Bay raob). Strong mid- to high-level flow will aid in storm organization contingent on adequately strong/sustained updraft development. An isolated threat for locally strong to severe thunderstorms will seemingly exist prior to storms exiting the east coast later this afternoon. ..Smith/Dean.. 03/10/2025 Read more

SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0725 AM CDT Mon Mar 10 2025 Valid 101300Z - 111200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR NORTHERN AND CENTRAL PORTIONS OF THE FLORIDA PENINSULA... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorms associated with an isolated risk for severe gusts, and potentially a tornado, will be possible through early afternoon in parts of north and central Florida. ...FL Peninsula... Morning satellite/radar analysis shows a mid-level trough over AL/MS moving east-southeast towards FL, while a broken band of pre-frontal showers/storms extends from parts of north FL south-southwestward into the eastern Gulf west of Fort Myers. The mid-level trough will move over the Peninsula by early evening. A cold front is forecast to push southeast across the northern and central portions of the Peninsula through mid afternoon and coincide with thunderstorm development pushing east of the FL east coast. In the meantime, moist/southerly low-level flow will maintain a reservoir of moderate buoyancy (1200 J/kg MLCAPE per the 12 UTC Tampa Bay raob). Strong mid- to high-level flow will aid in storm organization contingent on adequately strong/sustained updraft development. An isolated threat for locally strong to severe thunderstorms will seemingly exist prior to storms exiting the east coast later this afternoon. ..Smith/Dean.. 03/10/2025 Read more

SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0725 AM CDT Mon Mar 10 2025 Valid 101300Z - 111200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR NORTHERN AND CENTRAL PORTIONS OF THE FLORIDA PENINSULA... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorms associated with an isolated risk for severe gusts, and potentially a tornado, will be possible through early afternoon in parts of north and central Florida. ...FL Peninsula... Morning satellite/radar analysis shows a mid-level trough over AL/MS moving east-southeast towards FL, while a broken band of pre-frontal showers/storms extends from parts of north FL south-southwestward into the eastern Gulf west of Fort Myers. The mid-level trough will move over the Peninsula by early evening. A cold front is forecast to push southeast across the northern and central portions of the Peninsula through mid afternoon and coincide with thunderstorm development pushing east of the FL east coast. In the meantime, moist/southerly low-level flow will maintain a reservoir of moderate buoyancy (1200 J/kg MLCAPE per the 12 UTC Tampa Bay raob). Strong mid- to high-level flow will aid in storm organization contingent on adequately strong/sustained updraft development. An isolated threat for locally strong to severe thunderstorms will seemingly exist prior to storms exiting the east coast later this afternoon. ..Smith/Dean.. 03/10/2025 Read more

SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0725 AM CDT Mon Mar 10 2025 Valid 101300Z - 111200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR NORTHERN AND CENTRAL PORTIONS OF THE FLORIDA PENINSULA... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorms associated with an isolated risk for severe gusts, and potentially a tornado, will be possible through early afternoon in parts of north and central Florida. ...FL Peninsula... Morning satellite/radar analysis shows a mid-level trough over AL/MS moving east-southeast towards FL, while a broken band of pre-frontal showers/storms extends from parts of north FL south-southwestward into the eastern Gulf west of Fort Myers. The mid-level trough will move over the Peninsula by early evening. A cold front is forecast to push southeast across the northern and central portions of the Peninsula through mid afternoon and coincide with thunderstorm development pushing east of the FL east coast. In the meantime, moist/southerly low-level flow will maintain a reservoir of moderate buoyancy (1200 J/kg MLCAPE per the 12 UTC Tampa Bay raob). Strong mid- to high-level flow will aid in storm organization contingent on adequately strong/sustained updraft development. An isolated threat for locally strong to severe thunderstorms will seemingly exist prior to storms exiting the east coast later this afternoon. ..Smith/Dean.. 03/10/2025 Read more

SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0725 AM CDT Mon Mar 10 2025 Valid 101300Z - 111200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR NORTHERN AND CENTRAL PORTIONS OF THE FLORIDA PENINSULA... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorms associated with an isolated risk for severe gusts, and potentially a tornado, will be possible through early afternoon in parts of north and central Florida. ...FL Peninsula... Morning satellite/radar analysis shows a mid-level trough over AL/MS moving east-southeast towards FL, while a broken band of pre-frontal showers/storms extends from parts of north FL south-southwestward into the eastern Gulf west of Fort Myers. The mid-level trough will move over the Peninsula by early evening. A cold front is forecast to push southeast across the northern and central portions of the Peninsula through mid afternoon and coincide with thunderstorm development pushing east of the FL east coast. In the meantime, moist/southerly low-level flow will maintain a reservoir of moderate buoyancy (1200 J/kg MLCAPE per the 12 UTC Tampa Bay raob). Strong mid- to high-level flow will aid in storm organization contingent on adequately strong/sustained updraft development. An isolated threat for locally strong to severe thunderstorms will seemingly exist prior to storms exiting the east coast later this afternoon. ..Smith/Dean.. 03/10/2025 Read more

SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0725 AM CDT Mon Mar 10 2025 Valid 101300Z - 111200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR NORTHERN AND CENTRAL PORTIONS OF THE FLORIDA PENINSULA... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorms associated with an isolated risk for severe gusts, and potentially a tornado, will be possible through early afternoon in parts of north and central Florida. ...FL Peninsula... Morning satellite/radar analysis shows a mid-level trough over AL/MS moving east-southeast towards FL, while a broken band of pre-frontal showers/storms extends from parts of north FL south-southwestward into the eastern Gulf west of Fort Myers. The mid-level trough will move over the Peninsula by early evening. A cold front is forecast to push southeast across the northern and central portions of the Peninsula through mid afternoon and coincide with thunderstorm development pushing east of the FL east coast. In the meantime, moist/southerly low-level flow will maintain a reservoir of moderate buoyancy (1200 J/kg MLCAPE per the 12 UTC Tampa Bay raob). Strong mid- to high-level flow will aid in storm organization contingent on adequately strong/sustained updraft development. An isolated threat for locally strong to severe thunderstorms will seemingly exist prior to storms exiting the east coast later this afternoon. ..Smith/Dean.. 03/10/2025 Read more

Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0354 AM CDT Mon Mar 10 2025 Valid 131200Z - 181200Z ...DISCUSSION... ...Day 4/Thu - Southeast... A shortwave upper trough will move across the Southeast on Thursday. Stronger deep-layer flow will mainly be focused over the Gulf. However, cooler temperatures aloft will support weak instability and a strong storm or two may occur over portions of AL/GA and the FL Panhandle. Overall severe potential appears limited. ...Day 5/Fri - ArkLaTex to the Mid/Lower MS Valley vicinity... A regional outbreak of severe storms is forecast late Friday afternoon into the overnight hours. An intense upper cyclone will deepen as it ejects northeast from the central/southern Plains to the Upper Midwest by Saturday morning. A 100+ kt 500 mb jet streak will move across OK into the Ozark Plateau during the late afternoon and evening, before lifting north across the Mid-MS Valley overnight. At the surface, a rapidly deepening surface low will move across the central Plains to the Upper Midwest, with a cold front surging east across the region from late afternoon into Saturday morning. Deeper Gulf moisture will be confined to the I-20 corridor Friday morning. However, intense low-level flow will quickly transport moisture northward through the mid-MS Valley. Surface dewpoints greater than 60 F will likely remain south of the MO Bootheel vicinity, with a broader area of more modest moisture as far north as northeast IA/southwest WI and northern IL. While moisture will be less favorable with northward extent, strong large-scale ascent, intense deep-layer flow and a surging cold front will likely be sufficient for severe convection even amid weak instability. Further south from the ArkLaTex vicinity to the Lower MS Valley, better quality moisture is expected to overlap intense shear. Overall, this pattern will support all severe hazards, with a potential mixed mode evolution (QLCS and supercells). The north and east extent of severe potential remains a bit uncertain either due to moisture concerns and/or spread among various guidance in timing and position of key features. Severe probabilities will likely be refined over the coming days as these features become better resolved. ...Day 6/Sat - Southeast... The Upper Midwest cyclone will eject northeast into Ontario on Saturday. Meanwhile the base of the larger-scale upper trough over the Plains ejects east toward the Lower MS Valley and Southeast. This will maintain strong deep-layer southwesterly flow across the region, with an intense low-level jet expected to develop by late afternoon as stronger height falls overspread the Deep South. Ongoing convection at the beginning of the period from the Lower OH Valley toward northern MS/LA adds some uncertainty regarding how the airmass will destabilize (especially with northward extent). However, it appears likely that a very favorable corridor of rich boundary layer moisture will overlap strong shear from central/southern MS into northern AL ahead of a cold front expected to surge across the area during the evening. This overall pattern appears favorable for both supercells and an eventual QLCS. ...Day 7/Sun - Eastern states... The upper trough over the central U.S. will lift northeast over the eastern states on Sunday. Some severe potential is possible given strong deep-layer flow atop a moist boundary layer ahead of the eastward-advancing cold front. However, destabilization may be limited by widespread training precipitation. Read more

Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0354 AM CDT Mon Mar 10 2025 Valid 131200Z - 181200Z ...DISCUSSION... ...Day 4/Thu - Southeast... A shortwave upper trough will move across the Southeast on Thursday. Stronger deep-layer flow will mainly be focused over the Gulf. However, cooler temperatures aloft will support weak instability and a strong storm or two may occur over portions of AL/GA and the FL Panhandle. Overall severe potential appears limited. ...Day 5/Fri - ArkLaTex to the Mid/Lower MS Valley vicinity... A regional outbreak of severe storms is forecast late Friday afternoon into the overnight hours. An intense upper cyclone will deepen as it ejects northeast from the central/southern Plains to the Upper Midwest by Saturday morning. A 100+ kt 500 mb jet streak will move across OK into the Ozark Plateau during the late afternoon and evening, before lifting north across the Mid-MS Valley overnight. At the surface, a rapidly deepening surface low will move across the central Plains to the Upper Midwest, with a cold front surging east across the region from late afternoon into Saturday morning. Deeper Gulf moisture will be confined to the I-20 corridor Friday morning. However, intense low-level flow will quickly transport moisture northward through the mid-MS Valley. Surface dewpoints greater than 60 F will likely remain south of the MO Bootheel vicinity, with a broader area of more modest moisture as far north as northeast IA/southwest WI and northern IL. While moisture will be less favorable with northward extent, strong large-scale ascent, intense deep-layer flow and a surging cold front will likely be sufficient for severe convection even amid weak instability. Further south from the ArkLaTex vicinity to the Lower MS Valley, better quality moisture is expected to overlap intense shear. Overall, this pattern will support all severe hazards, with a potential mixed mode evolution (QLCS and supercells). The north and east extent of severe potential remains a bit uncertain either due to moisture concerns and/or spread among various guidance in timing and position of key features. Severe probabilities will likely be refined over the coming days as these features become better resolved. ...Day 6/Sat - Southeast... The Upper Midwest cyclone will eject northeast into Ontario on Saturday. Meanwhile the base of the larger-scale upper trough over the Plains ejects east toward the Lower MS Valley and Southeast. This will maintain strong deep-layer southwesterly flow across the region, with an intense low-level jet expected to develop by late afternoon as stronger height falls overspread the Deep South. Ongoing convection at the beginning of the period from the Lower OH Valley toward northern MS/LA adds some uncertainty regarding how the airmass will destabilize (especially with northward extent). However, it appears likely that a very favorable corridor of rich boundary layer moisture will overlap strong shear from central/southern MS into northern AL ahead of a cold front expected to surge across the area during the evening. This overall pattern appears favorable for both supercells and an eventual QLCS. ...Day 7/Sun - Eastern states... The upper trough over the central U.S. will lift northeast over the eastern states on Sunday. Some severe potential is possible given strong deep-layer flow atop a moist boundary layer ahead of the eastward-advancing cold front. However, destabilization may be limited by widespread training precipitation. Read more

Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0354 AM CDT Mon Mar 10 2025 Valid 131200Z - 181200Z ...DISCUSSION... ...Day 4/Thu - Southeast... A shortwave upper trough will move across the Southeast on Thursday. Stronger deep-layer flow will mainly be focused over the Gulf. However, cooler temperatures aloft will support weak instability and a strong storm or two may occur over portions of AL/GA and the FL Panhandle. Overall severe potential appears limited. ...Day 5/Fri - ArkLaTex to the Mid/Lower MS Valley vicinity... A regional outbreak of severe storms is forecast late Friday afternoon into the overnight hours. An intense upper cyclone will deepen as it ejects northeast from the central/southern Plains to the Upper Midwest by Saturday morning. A 100+ kt 500 mb jet streak will move across OK into the Ozark Plateau during the late afternoon and evening, before lifting north across the Mid-MS Valley overnight. At the surface, a rapidly deepening surface low will move across the central Plains to the Upper Midwest, with a cold front surging east across the region from late afternoon into Saturday morning. Deeper Gulf moisture will be confined to the I-20 corridor Friday morning. However, intense low-level flow will quickly transport moisture northward through the mid-MS Valley. Surface dewpoints greater than 60 F will likely remain south of the MO Bootheel vicinity, with a broader area of more modest moisture as far north as northeast IA/southwest WI and northern IL. While moisture will be less favorable with northward extent, strong large-scale ascent, intense deep-layer flow and a surging cold front will likely be sufficient for severe convection even amid weak instability. Further south from the ArkLaTex vicinity to the Lower MS Valley, better quality moisture is expected to overlap intense shear. Overall, this pattern will support all severe hazards, with a potential mixed mode evolution (QLCS and supercells). The north and east extent of severe potential remains a bit uncertain either due to moisture concerns and/or spread among various guidance in timing and position of key features. Severe probabilities will likely be refined over the coming days as these features become better resolved. ...Day 6/Sat - Southeast... The Upper Midwest cyclone will eject northeast into Ontario on Saturday. Meanwhile the base of the larger-scale upper trough over the Plains ejects east toward the Lower MS Valley and Southeast. This will maintain strong deep-layer southwesterly flow across the region, with an intense low-level jet expected to develop by late afternoon as stronger height falls overspread the Deep South. Ongoing convection at the beginning of the period from the Lower OH Valley toward northern MS/LA adds some uncertainty regarding how the airmass will destabilize (especially with northward extent). However, it appears likely that a very favorable corridor of rich boundary layer moisture will overlap strong shear from central/southern MS into northern AL ahead of a cold front expected to surge across the area during the evening. This overall pattern appears favorable for both supercells and an eventual QLCS. ...Day 7/Sun - Eastern states... The upper trough over the central U.S. will lift northeast over the eastern states on Sunday. Some severe potential is possible given strong deep-layer flow atop a moist boundary layer ahead of the eastward-advancing cold front. However, destabilization may be limited by widespread training precipitation. Read more

Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0354 AM CDT Mon Mar 10 2025 Valid 131200Z - 181200Z ...DISCUSSION... ...Day 4/Thu - Southeast... A shortwave upper trough will move across the Southeast on Thursday. Stronger deep-layer flow will mainly be focused over the Gulf. However, cooler temperatures aloft will support weak instability and a strong storm or two may occur over portions of AL/GA and the FL Panhandle. Overall severe potential appears limited. ...Day 5/Fri - ArkLaTex to the Mid/Lower MS Valley vicinity... A regional outbreak of severe storms is forecast late Friday afternoon into the overnight hours. An intense upper cyclone will deepen as it ejects northeast from the central/southern Plains to the Upper Midwest by Saturday morning. A 100+ kt 500 mb jet streak will move across OK into the Ozark Plateau during the late afternoon and evening, before lifting north across the Mid-MS Valley overnight. At the surface, a rapidly deepening surface low will move across the central Plains to the Upper Midwest, with a cold front surging east across the region from late afternoon into Saturday morning. Deeper Gulf moisture will be confined to the I-20 corridor Friday morning. However, intense low-level flow will quickly transport moisture northward through the mid-MS Valley. Surface dewpoints greater than 60 F will likely remain south of the MO Bootheel vicinity, with a broader area of more modest moisture as far north as northeast IA/southwest WI and northern IL. While moisture will be less favorable with northward extent, strong large-scale ascent, intense deep-layer flow and a surging cold front will likely be sufficient for severe convection even amid weak instability. Further south from the ArkLaTex vicinity to the Lower MS Valley, better quality moisture is expected to overlap intense shear. Overall, this pattern will support all severe hazards, with a potential mixed mode evolution (QLCS and supercells). The north and east extent of severe potential remains a bit uncertain either due to moisture concerns and/or spread among various guidance in timing and position of key features. Severe probabilities will likely be refined over the coming days as these features become better resolved. ...Day 6/Sat - Southeast... The Upper Midwest cyclone will eject northeast into Ontario on Saturday. Meanwhile the base of the larger-scale upper trough over the Plains ejects east toward the Lower MS Valley and Southeast. This will maintain strong deep-layer southwesterly flow across the region, with an intense low-level jet expected to develop by late afternoon as stronger height falls overspread the Deep South. Ongoing convection at the beginning of the period from the Lower OH Valley toward northern MS/LA adds some uncertainty regarding how the airmass will destabilize (especially with northward extent). However, it appears likely that a very favorable corridor of rich boundary layer moisture will overlap strong shear from central/southern MS into northern AL ahead of a cold front expected to surge across the area during the evening. This overall pattern appears favorable for both supercells and an eventual QLCS. ...Day 7/Sun - Eastern states... The upper trough over the central U.S. will lift northeast over the eastern states on Sunday. Some severe potential is possible given strong deep-layer flow atop a moist boundary layer ahead of the eastward-advancing cold front. However, destabilization may be limited by widespread training precipitation. Read more

Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0354 AM CDT Mon Mar 10 2025 Valid 131200Z - 181200Z ...DISCUSSION... ...Day 4/Thu - Southeast... A shortwave upper trough will move across the Southeast on Thursday. Stronger deep-layer flow will mainly be focused over the Gulf. However, cooler temperatures aloft will support weak instability and a strong storm or two may occur over portions of AL/GA and the FL Panhandle. Overall severe potential appears limited. ...Day 5/Fri - ArkLaTex to the Mid/Lower MS Valley vicinity... A regional outbreak of severe storms is forecast late Friday afternoon into the overnight hours. An intense upper cyclone will deepen as it ejects northeast from the central/southern Plains to the Upper Midwest by Saturday morning. A 100+ kt 500 mb jet streak will move across OK into the Ozark Plateau during the late afternoon and evening, before lifting north across the Mid-MS Valley overnight. At the surface, a rapidly deepening surface low will move across the central Plains to the Upper Midwest, with a cold front surging east across the region from late afternoon into Saturday morning. Deeper Gulf moisture will be confined to the I-20 corridor Friday morning. However, intense low-level flow will quickly transport moisture northward through the mid-MS Valley. Surface dewpoints greater than 60 F will likely remain south of the MO Bootheel vicinity, with a broader area of more modest moisture as far north as northeast IA/southwest WI and northern IL. While moisture will be less favorable with northward extent, strong large-scale ascent, intense deep-layer flow and a surging cold front will likely be sufficient for severe convection even amid weak instability. Further south from the ArkLaTex vicinity to the Lower MS Valley, better quality moisture is expected to overlap intense shear. Overall, this pattern will support all severe hazards, with a potential mixed mode evolution (QLCS and supercells). The north and east extent of severe potential remains a bit uncertain either due to moisture concerns and/or spread among various guidance in timing and position of key features. Severe probabilities will likely be refined over the coming days as these features become better resolved. ...Day 6/Sat - Southeast... The Upper Midwest cyclone will eject northeast into Ontario on Saturday. Meanwhile the base of the larger-scale upper trough over the Plains ejects east toward the Lower MS Valley and Southeast. This will maintain strong deep-layer southwesterly flow across the region, with an intense low-level jet expected to develop by late afternoon as stronger height falls overspread the Deep South. Ongoing convection at the beginning of the period from the Lower OH Valley toward northern MS/LA adds some uncertainty regarding how the airmass will destabilize (especially with northward extent). However, it appears likely that a very favorable corridor of rich boundary layer moisture will overlap strong shear from central/southern MS into northern AL ahead of a cold front expected to surge across the area during the evening. This overall pattern appears favorable for both supercells and an eventual QLCS. ...Day 7/Sun - Eastern states... The upper trough over the central U.S. will lift northeast over the eastern states on Sunday. Some severe potential is possible given strong deep-layer flow atop a moist boundary layer ahead of the eastward-advancing cold front. However, destabilization may be limited by widespread training precipitation. Read more

Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0354 AM CDT Mon Mar 10 2025 Valid 131200Z - 181200Z ...DISCUSSION... ...Day 4/Thu - Southeast... A shortwave upper trough will move across the Southeast on Thursday. Stronger deep-layer flow will mainly be focused over the Gulf. However, cooler temperatures aloft will support weak instability and a strong storm or two may occur over portions of AL/GA and the FL Panhandle. Overall severe potential appears limited. ...Day 5/Fri - ArkLaTex to the Mid/Lower MS Valley vicinity... A regional outbreak of severe storms is forecast late Friday afternoon into the overnight hours. An intense upper cyclone will deepen as it ejects northeast from the central/southern Plains to the Upper Midwest by Saturday morning. A 100+ kt 500 mb jet streak will move across OK into the Ozark Plateau during the late afternoon and evening, before lifting north across the Mid-MS Valley overnight. At the surface, a rapidly deepening surface low will move across the central Plains to the Upper Midwest, with a cold front surging east across the region from late afternoon into Saturday morning. Deeper Gulf moisture will be confined to the I-20 corridor Friday morning. However, intense low-level flow will quickly transport moisture northward through the mid-MS Valley. Surface dewpoints greater than 60 F will likely remain south of the MO Bootheel vicinity, with a broader area of more modest moisture as far north as northeast IA/southwest WI and northern IL. While moisture will be less favorable with northward extent, strong large-scale ascent, intense deep-layer flow and a surging cold front will likely be sufficient for severe convection even amid weak instability. Further south from the ArkLaTex vicinity to the Lower MS Valley, better quality moisture is expected to overlap intense shear. Overall, this pattern will support all severe hazards, with a potential mixed mode evolution (QLCS and supercells). The north and east extent of severe potential remains a bit uncertain either due to moisture concerns and/or spread among various guidance in timing and position of key features. Severe probabilities will likely be refined over the coming days as these features become better resolved. ...Day 6/Sat - Southeast... The Upper Midwest cyclone will eject northeast into Ontario on Saturday. Meanwhile the base of the larger-scale upper trough over the Plains ejects east toward the Lower MS Valley and Southeast. This will maintain strong deep-layer southwesterly flow across the region, with an intense low-level jet expected to develop by late afternoon as stronger height falls overspread the Deep South. Ongoing convection at the beginning of the period from the Lower OH Valley toward northern MS/LA adds some uncertainty regarding how the airmass will destabilize (especially with northward extent). However, it appears likely that a very favorable corridor of rich boundary layer moisture will overlap strong shear from central/southern MS into northern AL ahead of a cold front expected to surge across the area during the evening. This overall pattern appears favorable for both supercells and an eventual QLCS. ...Day 7/Sun - Eastern states... The upper trough over the central U.S. will lift northeast over the eastern states on Sunday. Some severe potential is possible given strong deep-layer flow atop a moist boundary layer ahead of the eastward-advancing cold front. However, destabilization may be limited by widespread training precipitation. Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0151 AM CDT Mon Mar 10 2025 Valid 111200Z - 121200Z ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR EXTREME SOUTHEAST ARIZONA INTO CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN NEW MEXICO... ...Synopsis... A mid-level trough over the eastern Pacific will rapidly approach the CONUS and impinge on the Desert Southwest tomorrow (Tuesday), encouraging surface low development across the southern Plains. As this occurs, dry downslope flow from the southern Rockies will overspread portions of the southern High Plains, promoting wildfire-spread potential. By afternoon peak heating, west-southwesterly surface winds in the 15-25 mph range will become common, along with RH dipping to 5-15 percent. Critical fire weather highlights have been introduced where guidance consensus shows 20+ mph sustained surface winds overlapping with 10 percent RH for at least a few hours Tuesday afternoon. ..Squitieri.. 03/10/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more