Severe Storms

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1145 AM CDT Mon Mar 10 2025 Valid 101700Z - 111200Z ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR PORTIONS OF THE NORTHERN PLAINS... The previous forecast (see below) remains on track, and no changes were made with this update. In addition, dry/breezy conditions along the CO Front Range may favor locally elevated fire-weather conditions (especially in the gap flow areas) today. However, these conditions and receptive fuels appear too localized for highlights. ..Weinman.. 03/10/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0139 AM CDT Mon Mar 10 2025/ ...Synopsis... A mid-level impulse will traverse the north-central CONUS today, encouraging surface troughing across the northern Plains into the southern High Plains, with a surface cold front poised to surge southward across the northern Plains during the later half of the period. Preceding the surface cold front, within the surface troughing regime, dry and windy conditions are expected across portions of the northern and central Plains. Over the central Plains, 15-25 mph west-southwesterly sustained surface winds amid 15-20 percent RH will encourage Elevated wildfire-spread potential given dry fuels. Across the northern Plains, closer to the stronger upper support, sustained westerly surface winds may reach 20 mph in spots, with sustained northwesterly surface winds potentially exceeding 30 mph behind the cold front. Given dry fine fuels and RH dipping to at least the 15-25 percent range by afternoon peak heating, Elevated/Critical highlights have been maintained. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0214 PM CDT Mon Mar 10 2025 Valid 111200Z - 121200Z ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR FAR SOUTHEAST ARIZONA INTO CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN NEW MEXICO... The previous forecast remains on track, and no appreciable changes were made with this update. For details, see the previous discussion below. Farther east, a modest pre-frontal pressure gradient and ample diurnal heating/boundary-layer mixing will favor breezy/gusty southwesterly surface winds and around 30 percent RH from the Ohio Valley into the Mid-Atlantic and Northeast during the afternoon. This may result in locally elevated fire-weather conditions where fuels are receptive, though the overall threat appears too localized for highlights at this time. ..Weinman.. 03/10/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0151 AM CDT Mon Mar 10 2025/ ...Synopsis... A mid-level trough over the eastern Pacific will rapidly approach the CONUS and impinge on the Desert Southwest tomorrow (Tuesday), encouraging surface low development across the southern Plains. As this occurs, dry downslope flow from the southern Rockies will overspread portions of the southern High Plains, promoting wildfire-spread potential. By afternoon peak heating, west-southwesterly surface winds in the 15-25 mph range will become common, along with RH dipping to 5-15 percent. Critical fire weather highlights have been introduced where guidance consensus shows 20+ mph sustained surface winds overlapping with 10 percent RH for at least a few hours Tuesday afternoon. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0214 PM CDT Mon Mar 10 2025 Valid 111200Z - 121200Z ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR FAR SOUTHEAST ARIZONA INTO CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN NEW MEXICO... The previous forecast remains on track, and no appreciable changes were made with this update. For details, see the previous discussion below. Farther east, a modest pre-frontal pressure gradient and ample diurnal heating/boundary-layer mixing will favor breezy/gusty southwesterly surface winds and around 30 percent RH from the Ohio Valley into the Mid-Atlantic and Northeast during the afternoon. This may result in locally elevated fire-weather conditions where fuels are receptive, though the overall threat appears too localized for highlights at this time. ..Weinman.. 03/10/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0151 AM CDT Mon Mar 10 2025/ ...Synopsis... A mid-level trough over the eastern Pacific will rapidly approach the CONUS and impinge on the Desert Southwest tomorrow (Tuesday), encouraging surface low development across the southern Plains. As this occurs, dry downslope flow from the southern Rockies will overspread portions of the southern High Plains, promoting wildfire-spread potential. By afternoon peak heating, west-southwesterly surface winds in the 15-25 mph range will become common, along with RH dipping to 5-15 percent. Critical fire weather highlights have been introduced where guidance consensus shows 20+ mph sustained surface winds overlapping with 10 percent RH for at least a few hours Tuesday afternoon. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0214 PM CDT Mon Mar 10 2025 Valid 111200Z - 121200Z ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR FAR SOUTHEAST ARIZONA INTO CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN NEW MEXICO... The previous forecast remains on track, and no appreciable changes were made with this update. For details, see the previous discussion below. Farther east, a modest pre-frontal pressure gradient and ample diurnal heating/boundary-layer mixing will favor breezy/gusty southwesterly surface winds and around 30 percent RH from the Ohio Valley into the Mid-Atlantic and Northeast during the afternoon. This may result in locally elevated fire-weather conditions where fuels are receptive, though the overall threat appears too localized for highlights at this time. ..Weinman.. 03/10/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0151 AM CDT Mon Mar 10 2025/ ...Synopsis... A mid-level trough over the eastern Pacific will rapidly approach the CONUS and impinge on the Desert Southwest tomorrow (Tuesday), encouraging surface low development across the southern Plains. As this occurs, dry downslope flow from the southern Rockies will overspread portions of the southern High Plains, promoting wildfire-spread potential. By afternoon peak heating, west-southwesterly surface winds in the 15-25 mph range will become common, along with RH dipping to 5-15 percent. Critical fire weather highlights have been introduced where guidance consensus shows 20+ mph sustained surface winds overlapping with 10 percent RH for at least a few hours Tuesday afternoon. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0214 PM CDT Mon Mar 10 2025 Valid 111200Z - 121200Z ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR FAR SOUTHEAST ARIZONA INTO CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN NEW MEXICO... The previous forecast remains on track, and no appreciable changes were made with this update. For details, see the previous discussion below. Farther east, a modest pre-frontal pressure gradient and ample diurnal heating/boundary-layer mixing will favor breezy/gusty southwesterly surface winds and around 30 percent RH from the Ohio Valley into the Mid-Atlantic and Northeast during the afternoon. This may result in locally elevated fire-weather conditions where fuels are receptive, though the overall threat appears too localized for highlights at this time. ..Weinman.. 03/10/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0151 AM CDT Mon Mar 10 2025/ ...Synopsis... A mid-level trough over the eastern Pacific will rapidly approach the CONUS and impinge on the Desert Southwest tomorrow (Tuesday), encouraging surface low development across the southern Plains. As this occurs, dry downslope flow from the southern Rockies will overspread portions of the southern High Plains, promoting wildfire-spread potential. By afternoon peak heating, west-southwesterly surface winds in the 15-25 mph range will become common, along with RH dipping to 5-15 percent. Critical fire weather highlights have been introduced where guidance consensus shows 20+ mph sustained surface winds overlapping with 10 percent RH for at least a few hours Tuesday afternoon. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0214 PM CDT Mon Mar 10 2025 Valid 111200Z - 121200Z ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR FAR SOUTHEAST ARIZONA INTO CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN NEW MEXICO... The previous forecast remains on track, and no appreciable changes were made with this update. For details, see the previous discussion below. Farther east, a modest pre-frontal pressure gradient and ample diurnal heating/boundary-layer mixing will favor breezy/gusty southwesterly surface winds and around 30 percent RH from the Ohio Valley into the Mid-Atlantic and Northeast during the afternoon. This may result in locally elevated fire-weather conditions where fuels are receptive, though the overall threat appears too localized for highlights at this time. ..Weinman.. 03/10/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0151 AM CDT Mon Mar 10 2025/ ...Synopsis... A mid-level trough over the eastern Pacific will rapidly approach the CONUS and impinge on the Desert Southwest tomorrow (Tuesday), encouraging surface low development across the southern Plains. As this occurs, dry downslope flow from the southern Rockies will overspread portions of the southern High Plains, promoting wildfire-spread potential. By afternoon peak heating, west-southwesterly surface winds in the 15-25 mph range will become common, along with RH dipping to 5-15 percent. Critical fire weather highlights have been introduced where guidance consensus shows 20+ mph sustained surface winds overlapping with 10 percent RH for at least a few hours Tuesday afternoon. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0214 PM CDT Mon Mar 10 2025 Valid 111200Z - 121200Z ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR FAR SOUTHEAST ARIZONA INTO CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN NEW MEXICO... The previous forecast remains on track, and no appreciable changes were made with this update. For details, see the previous discussion below. Farther east, a modest pre-frontal pressure gradient and ample diurnal heating/boundary-layer mixing will favor breezy/gusty southwesterly surface winds and around 30 percent RH from the Ohio Valley into the Mid-Atlantic and Northeast during the afternoon. This may result in locally elevated fire-weather conditions where fuels are receptive, though the overall threat appears too localized for highlights at this time. ..Weinman.. 03/10/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0151 AM CDT Mon Mar 10 2025/ ...Synopsis... A mid-level trough over the eastern Pacific will rapidly approach the CONUS and impinge on the Desert Southwest tomorrow (Tuesday), encouraging surface low development across the southern Plains. As this occurs, dry downslope flow from the southern Rockies will overspread portions of the southern High Plains, promoting wildfire-spread potential. By afternoon peak heating, west-southwesterly surface winds in the 15-25 mph range will become common, along with RH dipping to 5-15 percent. Critical fire weather highlights have been introduced where guidance consensus shows 20+ mph sustained surface winds overlapping with 10 percent RH for at least a few hours Tuesday afternoon. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0248 PM CDT Mon Mar 10 2025 Valid 102000Z - 111200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHERN FLORIDA PENINSULA... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorms associated with an isolated risk for severe gusts will continue across the southern Florida Peninsula this afternoon. ...20z Update... The Marginal risk area was reduced across central Florida with this update with the passage of the front. Some severe risk continues across portions of the southern Florida peninsula where temperatures have warmed into the upper 70s to 80s with MLCAPE around 500 J/kg remaining ahead of the front. In addition, deep layer flow remains strong as the mid-level wave continues to move across the peninsula, which may support instance of a stronger storm or two capable of damaging wind. ..Thornton/Mosier.. 03/10/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1116 AM CDT Mon Mar 10 2025/ ...Central/Southern FL Peninsula... Recent surface analysis places a low just off the GA Coast, with a cold front extending southwestward from this low across far southeast GA and western north FL into the northeastern Gulf. A relatively broad surface trough (and modest wind shift) exists ahead of this front across the central FL Peninsula. Thunderstorms are currently ongoing within the area of low-level confluence and moisture convergence, which extends well offshore. The downstream airmass across central and southern FL is currently characterized by temperatures in the upper 70s to mid 80s, and dewpoints in the low 70s. Overall buoyancy within these warm and moist conditions is currently mitigated somewhat by warm temperatures aloft, which were sampled well by the 12Z MFL sounding. Even so, enough boundary-layer warming appears likely throughout the day to maintain modest destabilization within at least a narrow corridor of higher pre-frontal moisture content. Continued thunderstorm development is anticipated within this corridor as it gradually shifts southward/southeastward this afternoon and evening. Strong low to mid-level flow will persist across the peninsula, with a resulting persistence of deep-layer vertical shear. As such, the environment will remain favorable for isolated to widely scattered supercell development. Damaging wind gusts will be the primary risk from these storms. Modest clockwise-curved low-level hodographs suggest a short-lived tornado or two is also possible throughout the day, but these hodographs are forecast to shrink with southern extent as surface to 850 mb flow veers to a more westerly component and begins to weaken some. As mentioned in the recently issued MCD #0161, the near coastal areas between Palm Beach and Vero Beach appear to have the greatest (although still relatively low) tornado risk this afternoon. Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0248 PM CDT Mon Mar 10 2025 Valid 102000Z - 111200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHERN FLORIDA PENINSULA... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorms associated with an isolated risk for severe gusts will continue across the southern Florida Peninsula this afternoon. ...20z Update... The Marginal risk area was reduced across central Florida with this update with the passage of the front. Some severe risk continues across portions of the southern Florida peninsula where temperatures have warmed into the upper 70s to 80s with MLCAPE around 500 J/kg remaining ahead of the front. In addition, deep layer flow remains strong as the mid-level wave continues to move across the peninsula, which may support instance of a stronger storm or two capable of damaging wind. ..Thornton/Mosier.. 03/10/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1116 AM CDT Mon Mar 10 2025/ ...Central/Southern FL Peninsula... Recent surface analysis places a low just off the GA Coast, with a cold front extending southwestward from this low across far southeast GA and western north FL into the northeastern Gulf. A relatively broad surface trough (and modest wind shift) exists ahead of this front across the central FL Peninsula. Thunderstorms are currently ongoing within the area of low-level confluence and moisture convergence, which extends well offshore. The downstream airmass across central and southern FL is currently characterized by temperatures in the upper 70s to mid 80s, and dewpoints in the low 70s. Overall buoyancy within these warm and moist conditions is currently mitigated somewhat by warm temperatures aloft, which were sampled well by the 12Z MFL sounding. Even so, enough boundary-layer warming appears likely throughout the day to maintain modest destabilization within at least a narrow corridor of higher pre-frontal moisture content. Continued thunderstorm development is anticipated within this corridor as it gradually shifts southward/southeastward this afternoon and evening. Strong low to mid-level flow will persist across the peninsula, with a resulting persistence of deep-layer vertical shear. As such, the environment will remain favorable for isolated to widely scattered supercell development. Damaging wind gusts will be the primary risk from these storms. Modest clockwise-curved low-level hodographs suggest a short-lived tornado or two is also possible throughout the day, but these hodographs are forecast to shrink with southern extent as surface to 850 mb flow veers to a more westerly component and begins to weaken some. As mentioned in the recently issued MCD #0161, the near coastal areas between Palm Beach and Vero Beach appear to have the greatest (although still relatively low) tornado risk this afternoon. Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0248 PM CDT Mon Mar 10 2025 Valid 102000Z - 111200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHERN FLORIDA PENINSULA... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorms associated with an isolated risk for severe gusts will continue across the southern Florida Peninsula this afternoon. ...20z Update... The Marginal risk area was reduced across central Florida with this update with the passage of the front. Some severe risk continues across portions of the southern Florida peninsula where temperatures have warmed into the upper 70s to 80s with MLCAPE around 500 J/kg remaining ahead of the front. In addition, deep layer flow remains strong as the mid-level wave continues to move across the peninsula, which may support instance of a stronger storm or two capable of damaging wind. ..Thornton/Mosier.. 03/10/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1116 AM CDT Mon Mar 10 2025/ ...Central/Southern FL Peninsula... Recent surface analysis places a low just off the GA Coast, with a cold front extending southwestward from this low across far southeast GA and western north FL into the northeastern Gulf. A relatively broad surface trough (and modest wind shift) exists ahead of this front across the central FL Peninsula. Thunderstorms are currently ongoing within the area of low-level confluence and moisture convergence, which extends well offshore. The downstream airmass across central and southern FL is currently characterized by temperatures in the upper 70s to mid 80s, and dewpoints in the low 70s. Overall buoyancy within these warm and moist conditions is currently mitigated somewhat by warm temperatures aloft, which were sampled well by the 12Z MFL sounding. Even so, enough boundary-layer warming appears likely throughout the day to maintain modest destabilization within at least a narrow corridor of higher pre-frontal moisture content. Continued thunderstorm development is anticipated within this corridor as it gradually shifts southward/southeastward this afternoon and evening. Strong low to mid-level flow will persist across the peninsula, with a resulting persistence of deep-layer vertical shear. As such, the environment will remain favorable for isolated to widely scattered supercell development. Damaging wind gusts will be the primary risk from these storms. Modest clockwise-curved low-level hodographs suggest a short-lived tornado or two is also possible throughout the day, but these hodographs are forecast to shrink with southern extent as surface to 850 mb flow veers to a more westerly component and begins to weaken some. As mentioned in the recently issued MCD #0161, the near coastal areas between Palm Beach and Vero Beach appear to have the greatest (although still relatively low) tornado risk this afternoon. Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0248 PM CDT Mon Mar 10 2025 Valid 102000Z - 111200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHERN FLORIDA PENINSULA... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorms associated with an isolated risk for severe gusts will continue across the southern Florida Peninsula this afternoon. ...20z Update... The Marginal risk area was reduced across central Florida with this update with the passage of the front. Some severe risk continues across portions of the southern Florida peninsula where temperatures have warmed into the upper 70s to 80s with MLCAPE around 500 J/kg remaining ahead of the front. In addition, deep layer flow remains strong as the mid-level wave continues to move across the peninsula, which may support instance of a stronger storm or two capable of damaging wind. ..Thornton/Mosier.. 03/10/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1116 AM CDT Mon Mar 10 2025/ ...Central/Southern FL Peninsula... Recent surface analysis places a low just off the GA Coast, with a cold front extending southwestward from this low across far southeast GA and western north FL into the northeastern Gulf. A relatively broad surface trough (and modest wind shift) exists ahead of this front across the central FL Peninsula. Thunderstorms are currently ongoing within the area of low-level confluence and moisture convergence, which extends well offshore. The downstream airmass across central and southern FL is currently characterized by temperatures in the upper 70s to mid 80s, and dewpoints in the low 70s. Overall buoyancy within these warm and moist conditions is currently mitigated somewhat by warm temperatures aloft, which were sampled well by the 12Z MFL sounding. Even so, enough boundary-layer warming appears likely throughout the day to maintain modest destabilization within at least a narrow corridor of higher pre-frontal moisture content. Continued thunderstorm development is anticipated within this corridor as it gradually shifts southward/southeastward this afternoon and evening. Strong low to mid-level flow will persist across the peninsula, with a resulting persistence of deep-layer vertical shear. As such, the environment will remain favorable for isolated to widely scattered supercell development. Damaging wind gusts will be the primary risk from these storms. Modest clockwise-curved low-level hodographs suggest a short-lived tornado or two is also possible throughout the day, but these hodographs are forecast to shrink with southern extent as surface to 850 mb flow veers to a more westerly component and begins to weaken some. As mentioned in the recently issued MCD #0161, the near coastal areas between Palm Beach and Vero Beach appear to have the greatest (although still relatively low) tornado risk this afternoon. Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0248 PM CDT Mon Mar 10 2025 Valid 102000Z - 111200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHERN FLORIDA PENINSULA... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorms associated with an isolated risk for severe gusts will continue across the southern Florida Peninsula this afternoon. ...20z Update... The Marginal risk area was reduced across central Florida with this update with the passage of the front. Some severe risk continues across portions of the southern Florida peninsula where temperatures have warmed into the upper 70s to 80s with MLCAPE around 500 J/kg remaining ahead of the front. In addition, deep layer flow remains strong as the mid-level wave continues to move across the peninsula, which may support instance of a stronger storm or two capable of damaging wind. ..Thornton/Mosier.. 03/10/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1116 AM CDT Mon Mar 10 2025/ ...Central/Southern FL Peninsula... Recent surface analysis places a low just off the GA Coast, with a cold front extending southwestward from this low across far southeast GA and western north FL into the northeastern Gulf. A relatively broad surface trough (and modest wind shift) exists ahead of this front across the central FL Peninsula. Thunderstorms are currently ongoing within the area of low-level confluence and moisture convergence, which extends well offshore. The downstream airmass across central and southern FL is currently characterized by temperatures in the upper 70s to mid 80s, and dewpoints in the low 70s. Overall buoyancy within these warm and moist conditions is currently mitigated somewhat by warm temperatures aloft, which were sampled well by the 12Z MFL sounding. Even so, enough boundary-layer warming appears likely throughout the day to maintain modest destabilization within at least a narrow corridor of higher pre-frontal moisture content. Continued thunderstorm development is anticipated within this corridor as it gradually shifts southward/southeastward this afternoon and evening. Strong low to mid-level flow will persist across the peninsula, with a resulting persistence of deep-layer vertical shear. As such, the environment will remain favorable for isolated to widely scattered supercell development. Damaging wind gusts will be the primary risk from these storms. Modest clockwise-curved low-level hodographs suggest a short-lived tornado or two is also possible throughout the day, but these hodographs are forecast to shrink with southern extent as surface to 850 mb flow veers to a more westerly component and begins to weaken some. As mentioned in the recently issued MCD #0161, the near coastal areas between Palm Beach and Vero Beach appear to have the greatest (although still relatively low) tornado risk this afternoon. Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0248 PM CDT Mon Mar 10 2025 Valid 102000Z - 111200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHERN FLORIDA PENINSULA... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorms associated with an isolated risk for severe gusts will continue across the southern Florida Peninsula this afternoon. ...20z Update... The Marginal risk area was reduced across central Florida with this update with the passage of the front. Some severe risk continues across portions of the southern Florida peninsula where temperatures have warmed into the upper 70s to 80s with MLCAPE around 500 J/kg remaining ahead of the front. In addition, deep layer flow remains strong as the mid-level wave continues to move across the peninsula, which may support instance of a stronger storm or two capable of damaging wind. ..Thornton/Mosier.. 03/10/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1116 AM CDT Mon Mar 10 2025/ ...Central/Southern FL Peninsula... Recent surface analysis places a low just off the GA Coast, with a cold front extending southwestward from this low across far southeast GA and western north FL into the northeastern Gulf. A relatively broad surface trough (and modest wind shift) exists ahead of this front across the central FL Peninsula. Thunderstorms are currently ongoing within the area of low-level confluence and moisture convergence, which extends well offshore. The downstream airmass across central and southern FL is currently characterized by temperatures in the upper 70s to mid 80s, and dewpoints in the low 70s. Overall buoyancy within these warm and moist conditions is currently mitigated somewhat by warm temperatures aloft, which were sampled well by the 12Z MFL sounding. Even so, enough boundary-layer warming appears likely throughout the day to maintain modest destabilization within at least a narrow corridor of higher pre-frontal moisture content. Continued thunderstorm development is anticipated within this corridor as it gradually shifts southward/southeastward this afternoon and evening. Strong low to mid-level flow will persist across the peninsula, with a resulting persistence of deep-layer vertical shear. As such, the environment will remain favorable for isolated to widely scattered supercell development. Damaging wind gusts will be the primary risk from these storms. Modest clockwise-curved low-level hodographs suggest a short-lived tornado or two is also possible throughout the day, but these hodographs are forecast to shrink with southern extent as surface to 850 mb flow veers to a more westerly component and begins to weaken some. As mentioned in the recently issued MCD #0161, the near coastal areas between Palm Beach and Vero Beach appear to have the greatest (although still relatively low) tornado risk this afternoon. Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0248 PM CDT Mon Mar 10 2025 Valid 102000Z - 111200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHERN FLORIDA PENINSULA... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorms associated with an isolated risk for severe gusts will continue across the southern Florida Peninsula this afternoon. ...20z Update... The Marginal risk area was reduced across central Florida with this update with the passage of the front. Some severe risk continues across portions of the southern Florida peninsula where temperatures have warmed into the upper 70s to 80s with MLCAPE around 500 J/kg remaining ahead of the front. In addition, deep layer flow remains strong as the mid-level wave continues to move across the peninsula, which may support instance of a stronger storm or two capable of damaging wind. ..Thornton/Mosier.. 03/10/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1116 AM CDT Mon Mar 10 2025/ ...Central/Southern FL Peninsula... Recent surface analysis places a low just off the GA Coast, with a cold front extending southwestward from this low across far southeast GA and western north FL into the northeastern Gulf. A relatively broad surface trough (and modest wind shift) exists ahead of this front across the central FL Peninsula. Thunderstorms are currently ongoing within the area of low-level confluence and moisture convergence, which extends well offshore. The downstream airmass across central and southern FL is currently characterized by temperatures in the upper 70s to mid 80s, and dewpoints in the low 70s. Overall buoyancy within these warm and moist conditions is currently mitigated somewhat by warm temperatures aloft, which were sampled well by the 12Z MFL sounding. Even so, enough boundary-layer warming appears likely throughout the day to maintain modest destabilization within at least a narrow corridor of higher pre-frontal moisture content. Continued thunderstorm development is anticipated within this corridor as it gradually shifts southward/southeastward this afternoon and evening. Strong low to mid-level flow will persist across the peninsula, with a resulting persistence of deep-layer vertical shear. As such, the environment will remain favorable for isolated to widely scattered supercell development. Damaging wind gusts will be the primary risk from these storms. Modest clockwise-curved low-level hodographs suggest a short-lived tornado or two is also possible throughout the day, but these hodographs are forecast to shrink with southern extent as surface to 850 mb flow veers to a more westerly component and begins to weaken some. As mentioned in the recently issued MCD #0161, the near coastal areas between Palm Beach and Vero Beach appear to have the greatest (although still relatively low) tornado risk this afternoon. Read more

SPC 1930Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0206 PM CDT Mon Mar 10 2025 Valid 121200Z - 131200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF EAST TEXAS INTO SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA...SOUTHERN ARKANSAS...NORTHERN LOUISIANA AND WESTERN MISSISSIPPI... ...SUMMARY... Isolated strong to severe thunderstorms are possible from eastern Texas into southeast Oklahoma, southern Arkansas, northern Louisiana, and western Mississippi late Wednesday afternoon and evening. ...Synopsis... A fast-moving mid-level trough will traverse from the Southwest Wednesday morning, across the southern Plains and into the Mid-Mississippi Valley by early Thursday morning. A weak surface cyclone will develop near the TX/OK Panhandles and move to the Ozark vicinity by late Wednesday evening. A dryline will extend from this surface low and sharpen across east-central Texas by early evening. ...Southern Plains to the Lower Mississippi Valley... Southerly flow will bring moisture northward ahead of the dryline on Wednesday afternoon. While some 60s dewpoints may approach the Red River, the moisture will be quite shallow with mean mixing ratio values around 10 g/kg ahead of the dryline. However, despite the low-quality moisture, cool mid-level temperatures will support moderate instability and mid-level forcing will be strong which should permit thunderstorm development along the dryline during the late afternoon and early evening. 40-50+ knots of effective shear is forecast beneath the mid-level jet streak. Therefore, supercells are possible with a threat for both large hail, damaging wind gusts, and perhaps a tornado. This threat should continue into the overnight period as moisture quality increases across the warm sector amid continued height falls and strengthening isentropic ascent. Some consideration was given to a Slight risk across portions of southeast Oklahoma and northeast Texas. However, the shallow nature of the moisture and the impact that may have on convective coverage during the afternoon/evening is the primary limiting factor at this time. ..Bentley.. 03/10/2025 Read more

SPC 1930Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0206 PM CDT Mon Mar 10 2025 Valid 121200Z - 131200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF EAST TEXAS INTO SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA...SOUTHERN ARKANSAS...NORTHERN LOUISIANA AND WESTERN MISSISSIPPI... ...SUMMARY... Isolated strong to severe thunderstorms are possible from eastern Texas into southeast Oklahoma, southern Arkansas, northern Louisiana, and western Mississippi late Wednesday afternoon and evening. ...Synopsis... A fast-moving mid-level trough will traverse from the Southwest Wednesday morning, across the southern Plains and into the Mid-Mississippi Valley by early Thursday morning. A weak surface cyclone will develop near the TX/OK Panhandles and move to the Ozark vicinity by late Wednesday evening. A dryline will extend from this surface low and sharpen across east-central Texas by early evening. ...Southern Plains to the Lower Mississippi Valley... Southerly flow will bring moisture northward ahead of the dryline on Wednesday afternoon. While some 60s dewpoints may approach the Red River, the moisture will be quite shallow with mean mixing ratio values around 10 g/kg ahead of the dryline. However, despite the low-quality moisture, cool mid-level temperatures will support moderate instability and mid-level forcing will be strong which should permit thunderstorm development along the dryline during the late afternoon and early evening. 40-50+ knots of effective shear is forecast beneath the mid-level jet streak. Therefore, supercells are possible with a threat for both large hail, damaging wind gusts, and perhaps a tornado. This threat should continue into the overnight period as moisture quality increases across the warm sector amid continued height falls and strengthening isentropic ascent. Some consideration was given to a Slight risk across portions of southeast Oklahoma and northeast Texas. However, the shallow nature of the moisture and the impact that may have on convective coverage during the afternoon/evening is the primary limiting factor at this time. ..Bentley.. 03/10/2025 Read more

SPC 1930Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0206 PM CDT Mon Mar 10 2025 Valid 121200Z - 131200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF EAST TEXAS INTO SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA...SOUTHERN ARKANSAS...NORTHERN LOUISIANA AND WESTERN MISSISSIPPI... ...SUMMARY... Isolated strong to severe thunderstorms are possible from eastern Texas into southeast Oklahoma, southern Arkansas, northern Louisiana, and western Mississippi late Wednesday afternoon and evening. ...Synopsis... A fast-moving mid-level trough will traverse from the Southwest Wednesday morning, across the southern Plains and into the Mid-Mississippi Valley by early Thursday morning. A weak surface cyclone will develop near the TX/OK Panhandles and move to the Ozark vicinity by late Wednesday evening. A dryline will extend from this surface low and sharpen across east-central Texas by early evening. ...Southern Plains to the Lower Mississippi Valley... Southerly flow will bring moisture northward ahead of the dryline on Wednesday afternoon. While some 60s dewpoints may approach the Red River, the moisture will be quite shallow with mean mixing ratio values around 10 g/kg ahead of the dryline. However, despite the low-quality moisture, cool mid-level temperatures will support moderate instability and mid-level forcing will be strong which should permit thunderstorm development along the dryline during the late afternoon and early evening. 40-50+ knots of effective shear is forecast beneath the mid-level jet streak. Therefore, supercells are possible with a threat for both large hail, damaging wind gusts, and perhaps a tornado. This threat should continue into the overnight period as moisture quality increases across the warm sector amid continued height falls and strengthening isentropic ascent. Some consideration was given to a Slight risk across portions of southeast Oklahoma and northeast Texas. However, the shallow nature of the moisture and the impact that may have on convective coverage during the afternoon/evening is the primary limiting factor at this time. ..Bentley.. 03/10/2025 Read more

SPC 1930Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0206 PM CDT Mon Mar 10 2025 Valid 121200Z - 131200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF EAST TEXAS INTO SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA...SOUTHERN ARKANSAS...NORTHERN LOUISIANA AND WESTERN MISSISSIPPI... ...SUMMARY... Isolated strong to severe thunderstorms are possible from eastern Texas into southeast Oklahoma, southern Arkansas, northern Louisiana, and western Mississippi late Wednesday afternoon and evening. ...Synopsis... A fast-moving mid-level trough will traverse from the Southwest Wednesday morning, across the southern Plains and into the Mid-Mississippi Valley by early Thursday morning. A weak surface cyclone will develop near the TX/OK Panhandles and move to the Ozark vicinity by late Wednesday evening. A dryline will extend from this surface low and sharpen across east-central Texas by early evening. ...Southern Plains to the Lower Mississippi Valley... Southerly flow will bring moisture northward ahead of the dryline on Wednesday afternoon. While some 60s dewpoints may approach the Red River, the moisture will be quite shallow with mean mixing ratio values around 10 g/kg ahead of the dryline. However, despite the low-quality moisture, cool mid-level temperatures will support moderate instability and mid-level forcing will be strong which should permit thunderstorm development along the dryline during the late afternoon and early evening. 40-50+ knots of effective shear is forecast beneath the mid-level jet streak. Therefore, supercells are possible with a threat for both large hail, damaging wind gusts, and perhaps a tornado. This threat should continue into the overnight period as moisture quality increases across the warm sector amid continued height falls and strengthening isentropic ascent. Some consideration was given to a Slight risk across portions of southeast Oklahoma and northeast Texas. However, the shallow nature of the moisture and the impact that may have on convective coverage during the afternoon/evening is the primary limiting factor at this time. ..Bentley.. 03/10/2025 Read more

SPC 1930Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0206 PM CDT Mon Mar 10 2025 Valid 121200Z - 131200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF EAST TEXAS INTO SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA...SOUTHERN ARKANSAS...NORTHERN LOUISIANA AND WESTERN MISSISSIPPI... ...SUMMARY... Isolated strong to severe thunderstorms are possible from eastern Texas into southeast Oklahoma, southern Arkansas, northern Louisiana, and western Mississippi late Wednesday afternoon and evening. ...Synopsis... A fast-moving mid-level trough will traverse from the Southwest Wednesday morning, across the southern Plains and into the Mid-Mississippi Valley by early Thursday morning. A weak surface cyclone will develop near the TX/OK Panhandles and move to the Ozark vicinity by late Wednesday evening. A dryline will extend from this surface low and sharpen across east-central Texas by early evening. ...Southern Plains to the Lower Mississippi Valley... Southerly flow will bring moisture northward ahead of the dryline on Wednesday afternoon. While some 60s dewpoints may approach the Red River, the moisture will be quite shallow with mean mixing ratio values around 10 g/kg ahead of the dryline. However, despite the low-quality moisture, cool mid-level temperatures will support moderate instability and mid-level forcing will be strong which should permit thunderstorm development along the dryline during the late afternoon and early evening. 40-50+ knots of effective shear is forecast beneath the mid-level jet streak. Therefore, supercells are possible with a threat for both large hail, damaging wind gusts, and perhaps a tornado. This threat should continue into the overnight period as moisture quality increases across the warm sector amid continued height falls and strengthening isentropic ascent. Some consideration was given to a Slight risk across portions of southeast Oklahoma and northeast Texas. However, the shallow nature of the moisture and the impact that may have on convective coverage during the afternoon/evening is the primary limiting factor at this time. ..Bentley.. 03/10/2025 Read more

SPC 1930Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0206 PM CDT Mon Mar 10 2025 Valid 121200Z - 131200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF EAST TEXAS INTO SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA...SOUTHERN ARKANSAS...NORTHERN LOUISIANA AND WESTERN MISSISSIPPI... ...SUMMARY... Isolated strong to severe thunderstorms are possible from eastern Texas into southeast Oklahoma, southern Arkansas, northern Louisiana, and western Mississippi late Wednesday afternoon and evening. ...Synopsis... A fast-moving mid-level trough will traverse from the Southwest Wednesday morning, across the southern Plains and into the Mid-Mississippi Valley by early Thursday morning. A weak surface cyclone will develop near the TX/OK Panhandles and move to the Ozark vicinity by late Wednesday evening. A dryline will extend from this surface low and sharpen across east-central Texas by early evening. ...Southern Plains to the Lower Mississippi Valley... Southerly flow will bring moisture northward ahead of the dryline on Wednesday afternoon. While some 60s dewpoints may approach the Red River, the moisture will be quite shallow with mean mixing ratio values around 10 g/kg ahead of the dryline. However, despite the low-quality moisture, cool mid-level temperatures will support moderate instability and mid-level forcing will be strong which should permit thunderstorm development along the dryline during the late afternoon and early evening. 40-50+ knots of effective shear is forecast beneath the mid-level jet streak. Therefore, supercells are possible with a threat for both large hail, damaging wind gusts, and perhaps a tornado. This threat should continue into the overnight period as moisture quality increases across the warm sector amid continued height falls and strengthening isentropic ascent. Some consideration was given to a Slight risk across portions of southeast Oklahoma and northeast Texas. However, the shallow nature of the moisture and the impact that may have on convective coverage during the afternoon/evening is the primary limiting factor at this time. ..Bentley.. 03/10/2025 Read more