Severe Storms

SPC 0730Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0207 AM CDT Tue Mar 11 2025 Valid 131200Z - 141200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF EASTERN MISSISSIPPI INTO ALABAMA... ...SUMMARY... A few strong to severe thunderstorms are possible across portions of eastern Mississippi into Alabama on Thursday. ...Southeast... A shortwave upper trough will move across the Southeast through Thursday evening before moving offshore over the Atlantic during the nighttime hours. Stronger deep-layer flow associated with a 55-65 kt jet streak within the base of the trough will mostly remain over the Gulf. However, modest vertical shear with effective shear magnitudes around 25-30 kt is forecast. Furthermore, elongated/straight hodographs are present in forecast soundings across portions of MS/AL. Boundary layer moisture will be modest (upper 50s to low 60s F), but cold temperatures aloft will support steep midlevel lapse rates and contribute to 500-1000 J/kg MLCAPE. Overall, this environment may support isolated strong to severe storms, with marginally severe hail and gusty winds being the main potential hazards through the afternoon. ..Leitman.. 03/11/2025 Read more

SPC 0730Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0207 AM CDT Tue Mar 11 2025 Valid 131200Z - 141200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF EASTERN MISSISSIPPI INTO ALABAMA... ...SUMMARY... A few strong to severe thunderstorms are possible across portions of eastern Mississippi into Alabama on Thursday. ...Southeast... A shortwave upper trough will move across the Southeast through Thursday evening before moving offshore over the Atlantic during the nighttime hours. Stronger deep-layer flow associated with a 55-65 kt jet streak within the base of the trough will mostly remain over the Gulf. However, modest vertical shear with effective shear magnitudes around 25-30 kt is forecast. Furthermore, elongated/straight hodographs are present in forecast soundings across portions of MS/AL. Boundary layer moisture will be modest (upper 50s to low 60s F), but cold temperatures aloft will support steep midlevel lapse rates and contribute to 500-1000 J/kg MLCAPE. Overall, this environment may support isolated strong to severe storms, with marginally severe hail and gusty winds being the main potential hazards through the afternoon. ..Leitman.. 03/11/2025 Read more

SPC 0730Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0207 AM CDT Tue Mar 11 2025 Valid 131200Z - 141200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF EASTERN MISSISSIPPI INTO ALABAMA... ...SUMMARY... A few strong to severe thunderstorms are possible across portions of eastern Mississippi into Alabama on Thursday. ...Southeast... A shortwave upper trough will move across the Southeast through Thursday evening before moving offshore over the Atlantic during the nighttime hours. Stronger deep-layer flow associated with a 55-65 kt jet streak within the base of the trough will mostly remain over the Gulf. However, modest vertical shear with effective shear magnitudes around 25-30 kt is forecast. Furthermore, elongated/straight hodographs are present in forecast soundings across portions of MS/AL. Boundary layer moisture will be modest (upper 50s to low 60s F), but cold temperatures aloft will support steep midlevel lapse rates and contribute to 500-1000 J/kg MLCAPE. Overall, this environment may support isolated strong to severe storms, with marginally severe hail and gusty winds being the main potential hazards through the afternoon. ..Leitman.. 03/11/2025 Read more

SPC 0730Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0207 AM CDT Tue Mar 11 2025 Valid 131200Z - 141200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF EASTERN MISSISSIPPI INTO ALABAMA... ...SUMMARY... A few strong to severe thunderstorms are possible across portions of eastern Mississippi into Alabama on Thursday. ...Southeast... A shortwave upper trough will move across the Southeast through Thursday evening before moving offshore over the Atlantic during the nighttime hours. Stronger deep-layer flow associated with a 55-65 kt jet streak within the base of the trough will mostly remain over the Gulf. However, modest vertical shear with effective shear magnitudes around 25-30 kt is forecast. Furthermore, elongated/straight hodographs are present in forecast soundings across portions of MS/AL. Boundary layer moisture will be modest (upper 50s to low 60s F), but cold temperatures aloft will support steep midlevel lapse rates and contribute to 500-1000 J/kg MLCAPE. Overall, this environment may support isolated strong to severe storms, with marginally severe hail and gusty winds being the main potential hazards through the afternoon. ..Leitman.. 03/11/2025 Read more

SPC 0730Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0207 AM CDT Tue Mar 11 2025 Valid 131200Z - 141200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF EASTERN MISSISSIPPI INTO ALABAMA... ...SUMMARY... A few strong to severe thunderstorms are possible across portions of eastern Mississippi into Alabama on Thursday. ...Southeast... A shortwave upper trough will move across the Southeast through Thursday evening before moving offshore over the Atlantic during the nighttime hours. Stronger deep-layer flow associated with a 55-65 kt jet streak within the base of the trough will mostly remain over the Gulf. However, modest vertical shear with effective shear magnitudes around 25-30 kt is forecast. Furthermore, elongated/straight hodographs are present in forecast soundings across portions of MS/AL. Boundary layer moisture will be modest (upper 50s to low 60s F), but cold temperatures aloft will support steep midlevel lapse rates and contribute to 500-1000 J/kg MLCAPE. Overall, this environment may support isolated strong to severe storms, with marginally severe hail and gusty winds being the main potential hazards through the afternoon. ..Leitman.. 03/11/2025 Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0158 AM CDT Tue Mar 11 2025 Valid 121200Z - 131200Z ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR FAR SOUTHEAST NEW MEXICO INTO MUCH OF WESTERN AND CENTRAL TEXAS... ...Synopsis... A mid-level trough will eject into the southern High Plains and traverse the state of Texas tomorrow (Wednesday), supporting strong surface low development and the eastward surging of a dryline during the afternoon. Behind the dryline, very dry and windy conditions will encourage dangerous wildfire-spread potential. By afternoon peak heating, the dryline is poised to approach the I-35 corridor, with sustained westerly surface winds over 25 mph amid 10-15 percent RH becoming common in the post dryline environment, from eastern New Mexico into western and central Texas. Several guidance members are also depicting brief bouts of Extremely Critical conditions across portions of western and central Texas, though these conditions do not appear widespread enough for Extremely Critical highlights at this time. Nonetheless, the aforementioned winds and RH will be overlapping dry fuels, some of which have yet to experience appreciable rainfall, so high-end Critical fire weather conditions are expected for much of western into central Texas. ..Squitieri.. 03/11/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0158 AM CDT Tue Mar 11 2025 Valid 121200Z - 131200Z ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR FAR SOUTHEAST NEW MEXICO INTO MUCH OF WESTERN AND CENTRAL TEXAS... ...Synopsis... A mid-level trough will eject into the southern High Plains and traverse the state of Texas tomorrow (Wednesday), supporting strong surface low development and the eastward surging of a dryline during the afternoon. Behind the dryline, very dry and windy conditions will encourage dangerous wildfire-spread potential. By afternoon peak heating, the dryline is poised to approach the I-35 corridor, with sustained westerly surface winds over 25 mph amid 10-15 percent RH becoming common in the post dryline environment, from eastern New Mexico into western and central Texas. Several guidance members are also depicting brief bouts of Extremely Critical conditions across portions of western and central Texas, though these conditions do not appear widespread enough for Extremely Critical highlights at this time. Nonetheless, the aforementioned winds and RH will be overlapping dry fuels, some of which have yet to experience appreciable rainfall, so high-end Critical fire weather conditions are expected for much of western into central Texas. ..Squitieri.. 03/11/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0158 AM CDT Tue Mar 11 2025 Valid 121200Z - 131200Z ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR FAR SOUTHEAST NEW MEXICO INTO MUCH OF WESTERN AND CENTRAL TEXAS... ...Synopsis... A mid-level trough will eject into the southern High Plains and traverse the state of Texas tomorrow (Wednesday), supporting strong surface low development and the eastward surging of a dryline during the afternoon. Behind the dryline, very dry and windy conditions will encourage dangerous wildfire-spread potential. By afternoon peak heating, the dryline is poised to approach the I-35 corridor, with sustained westerly surface winds over 25 mph amid 10-15 percent RH becoming common in the post dryline environment, from eastern New Mexico into western and central Texas. Several guidance members are also depicting brief bouts of Extremely Critical conditions across portions of western and central Texas, though these conditions do not appear widespread enough for Extremely Critical highlights at this time. Nonetheless, the aforementioned winds and RH will be overlapping dry fuels, some of which have yet to experience appreciable rainfall, so high-end Critical fire weather conditions are expected for much of western into central Texas. ..Squitieri.. 03/11/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0158 AM CDT Tue Mar 11 2025 Valid 121200Z - 131200Z ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR FAR SOUTHEAST NEW MEXICO INTO MUCH OF WESTERN AND CENTRAL TEXAS... ...Synopsis... A mid-level trough will eject into the southern High Plains and traverse the state of Texas tomorrow (Wednesday), supporting strong surface low development and the eastward surging of a dryline during the afternoon. Behind the dryline, very dry and windy conditions will encourage dangerous wildfire-spread potential. By afternoon peak heating, the dryline is poised to approach the I-35 corridor, with sustained westerly surface winds over 25 mph amid 10-15 percent RH becoming common in the post dryline environment, from eastern New Mexico into western and central Texas. Several guidance members are also depicting brief bouts of Extremely Critical conditions across portions of western and central Texas, though these conditions do not appear widespread enough for Extremely Critical highlights at this time. Nonetheless, the aforementioned winds and RH will be overlapping dry fuels, some of which have yet to experience appreciable rainfall, so high-end Critical fire weather conditions are expected for much of western into central Texas. ..Squitieri.. 03/11/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0157 AM CDT Tue Mar 11 2025 Valid 111200Z - 121200Z ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR PORTIONS OF EXTREME SOUTHEASTERN ARIZONA INTO CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN NEW MEXICO... ...Synopsis... A mid-level trough will traverse the southern Rockies, encouraging surface lee troughing and associated dry downslope flow across portions of the southern High Plains today. By afternoon peak heating, sustained westerly surface winds in the 15-25 range will overlap with 5-15 percent RH and fuels receptive to wildfire spread over portions of extreme southeast Arizona into western Texas, necessitating the maintenance of Elevated and Critical highlights. Meanwhile, a surface trough and associated cold front will sweep across the Northeast today. Ahead of the cold front, southwesterly surface winds, mainly around 10 mph, will coincide with 25-40 percent RH during the afternoon. Given the marginal surface wind fields and recent rainfall, Elevated highlights have been withheld. Still, at least localized wildfire-spread potential exists where stronger wind gusts can overlap with dry fuel beds. ..Squitieri.. 03/11/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0157 AM CDT Tue Mar 11 2025 Valid 111200Z - 121200Z ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR PORTIONS OF EXTREME SOUTHEASTERN ARIZONA INTO CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN NEW MEXICO... ...Synopsis... A mid-level trough will traverse the southern Rockies, encouraging surface lee troughing and associated dry downslope flow across portions of the southern High Plains today. By afternoon peak heating, sustained westerly surface winds in the 15-25 range will overlap with 5-15 percent RH and fuels receptive to wildfire spread over portions of extreme southeast Arizona into western Texas, necessitating the maintenance of Elevated and Critical highlights. Meanwhile, a surface trough and associated cold front will sweep across the Northeast today. Ahead of the cold front, southwesterly surface winds, mainly around 10 mph, will coincide with 25-40 percent RH during the afternoon. Given the marginal surface wind fields and recent rainfall, Elevated highlights have been withheld. Still, at least localized wildfire-spread potential exists where stronger wind gusts can overlap with dry fuel beds. ..Squitieri.. 03/11/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0157 AM CDT Tue Mar 11 2025 Valid 111200Z - 121200Z ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR PORTIONS OF EXTREME SOUTHEASTERN ARIZONA INTO CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN NEW MEXICO... ...Synopsis... A mid-level trough will traverse the southern Rockies, encouraging surface lee troughing and associated dry downslope flow across portions of the southern High Plains today. By afternoon peak heating, sustained westerly surface winds in the 15-25 range will overlap with 5-15 percent RH and fuels receptive to wildfire spread over portions of extreme southeast Arizona into western Texas, necessitating the maintenance of Elevated and Critical highlights. Meanwhile, a surface trough and associated cold front will sweep across the Northeast today. Ahead of the cold front, southwesterly surface winds, mainly around 10 mph, will coincide with 25-40 percent RH during the afternoon. Given the marginal surface wind fields and recent rainfall, Elevated highlights have been withheld. Still, at least localized wildfire-spread potential exists where stronger wind gusts can overlap with dry fuel beds. ..Squitieri.. 03/11/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0157 AM CDT Tue Mar 11 2025 Valid 111200Z - 121200Z ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR PORTIONS OF EXTREME SOUTHEASTERN ARIZONA INTO CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN NEW MEXICO... ...Synopsis... A mid-level trough will traverse the southern Rockies, encouraging surface lee troughing and associated dry downslope flow across portions of the southern High Plains today. By afternoon peak heating, sustained westerly surface winds in the 15-25 range will overlap with 5-15 percent RH and fuels receptive to wildfire spread over portions of extreme southeast Arizona into western Texas, necessitating the maintenance of Elevated and Critical highlights. Meanwhile, a surface trough and associated cold front will sweep across the Northeast today. Ahead of the cold front, southwesterly surface winds, mainly around 10 mph, will coincide with 25-40 percent RH during the afternoon. Given the marginal surface wind fields and recent rainfall, Elevated highlights have been withheld. Still, at least localized wildfire-spread potential exists where stronger wind gusts can overlap with dry fuel beds. ..Squitieri.. 03/11/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0157 AM CDT Tue Mar 11 2025 Valid 111200Z - 121200Z ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR PORTIONS OF EXTREME SOUTHEASTERN ARIZONA INTO CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN NEW MEXICO... ...Synopsis... A mid-level trough will traverse the southern Rockies, encouraging surface lee troughing and associated dry downslope flow across portions of the southern High Plains today. By afternoon peak heating, sustained westerly surface winds in the 15-25 range will overlap with 5-15 percent RH and fuels receptive to wildfire spread over portions of extreme southeast Arizona into western Texas, necessitating the maintenance of Elevated and Critical highlights. Meanwhile, a surface trough and associated cold front will sweep across the Northeast today. Ahead of the cold front, southwesterly surface winds, mainly around 10 mph, will coincide with 25-40 percent RH during the afternoon. Given the marginal surface wind fields and recent rainfall, Elevated highlights have been withheld. Still, at least localized wildfire-spread potential exists where stronger wind gusts can overlap with dry fuel beds. ..Squitieri.. 03/11/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC 0600Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1215 AM CDT Tue Mar 11 2025 Valid 121200Z - 131200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA...NORTHEAST TEXAS...WESTERN ARKANSAS...AND EXTREME NORTHWEST LOUISIANA... ...SUMMARY... Isolated strong to severe thunderstorms are possible from eastern Texas into southeast Oklahoma, southern Arkansas, northern Louisiana, and western Mississippi late Wednesday afternoon and evening. ...Southeast OK/ArkLaTex into western MS... An upper shortwave trough will quickly progress east from the southern Rockies/northern Mexico into the southern Plains by afternoon, and the South by Thursday morning. The stronger jet streak will remain over central/southeast TX before shifting to the central Gulf coast overnight. Nevertheless, the left exit region of the broader 50-60 kt southwesterly midlevel jet will overspread the ArkLaTex region during the afternoon/evening. Meanwhile, a modest surface low will move into central OK by late afternoon with a dryline extending south near/just east of the I-35 corridor. Boundary layer moisture will remain modest, with mainly 50s F dewpoints expected across eastern OK into AR. Near-60 F dewpoints may approach the Red River, but overall moisture will remain shallow and the boundary layer should become well-mixed. Nevertheless, supercell wind profiles will be present and cooling aloft will support steep midlevel lapse rates. This will foster MLCAPE values to around 1500 J/kg. Some uncertainty remain regarding storm coverage. Notably, the NAM maintains quite strong capping, while the HRRR, RAP, GFS and ECMWF guidance are more subdued (or fully erode any capping). A slight risk has been added near the dryline, close to the surface triple point where deeper, sustained convection appears most likely. Given aforementioned parameter space, large hail and strong gusts are the most probable storm hazards from late afternoon into Wednesday night. ..Leitman.. 03/11/2025 Read more

SPC 0600Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1215 AM CDT Tue Mar 11 2025 Valid 121200Z - 131200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA...NORTHEAST TEXAS...WESTERN ARKANSAS...AND EXTREME NORTHWEST LOUISIANA... ...SUMMARY... Isolated strong to severe thunderstorms are possible from eastern Texas into southeast Oklahoma, southern Arkansas, northern Louisiana, and western Mississippi late Wednesday afternoon and evening. ...Southeast OK/ArkLaTex into western MS... An upper shortwave trough will quickly progress east from the southern Rockies/northern Mexico into the southern Plains by afternoon, and the South by Thursday morning. The stronger jet streak will remain over central/southeast TX before shifting to the central Gulf coast overnight. Nevertheless, the left exit region of the broader 50-60 kt southwesterly midlevel jet will overspread the ArkLaTex region during the afternoon/evening. Meanwhile, a modest surface low will move into central OK by late afternoon with a dryline extending south near/just east of the I-35 corridor. Boundary layer moisture will remain modest, with mainly 50s F dewpoints expected across eastern OK into AR. Near-60 F dewpoints may approach the Red River, but overall moisture will remain shallow and the boundary layer should become well-mixed. Nevertheless, supercell wind profiles will be present and cooling aloft will support steep midlevel lapse rates. This will foster MLCAPE values to around 1500 J/kg. Some uncertainty remain regarding storm coverage. Notably, the NAM maintains quite strong capping, while the HRRR, RAP, GFS and ECMWF guidance are more subdued (or fully erode any capping). A slight risk has been added near the dryline, close to the surface triple point where deeper, sustained convection appears most likely. Given aforementioned parameter space, large hail and strong gusts are the most probable storm hazards from late afternoon into Wednesday night. ..Leitman.. 03/11/2025 Read more

SPC 0600Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1215 AM CDT Tue Mar 11 2025 Valid 121200Z - 131200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA...NORTHEAST TEXAS...WESTERN ARKANSAS...AND EXTREME NORTHWEST LOUISIANA... ...SUMMARY... Isolated strong to severe thunderstorms are possible from eastern Texas into southeast Oklahoma, southern Arkansas, northern Louisiana, and western Mississippi late Wednesday afternoon and evening. ...Southeast OK/ArkLaTex into western MS... An upper shortwave trough will quickly progress east from the southern Rockies/northern Mexico into the southern Plains by afternoon, and the South by Thursday morning. The stronger jet streak will remain over central/southeast TX before shifting to the central Gulf coast overnight. Nevertheless, the left exit region of the broader 50-60 kt southwesterly midlevel jet will overspread the ArkLaTex region during the afternoon/evening. Meanwhile, a modest surface low will move into central OK by late afternoon with a dryline extending south near/just east of the I-35 corridor. Boundary layer moisture will remain modest, with mainly 50s F dewpoints expected across eastern OK into AR. Near-60 F dewpoints may approach the Red River, but overall moisture will remain shallow and the boundary layer should become well-mixed. Nevertheless, supercell wind profiles will be present and cooling aloft will support steep midlevel lapse rates. This will foster MLCAPE values to around 1500 J/kg. Some uncertainty remain regarding storm coverage. Notably, the NAM maintains quite strong capping, while the HRRR, RAP, GFS and ECMWF guidance are more subdued (or fully erode any capping). A slight risk has been added near the dryline, close to the surface triple point where deeper, sustained convection appears most likely. Given aforementioned parameter space, large hail and strong gusts are the most probable storm hazards from late afternoon into Wednesday night. ..Leitman.. 03/11/2025 Read more

SPC 0600Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1215 AM CDT Tue Mar 11 2025 Valid 121200Z - 131200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA...NORTHEAST TEXAS...WESTERN ARKANSAS...AND EXTREME NORTHWEST LOUISIANA... ...SUMMARY... Isolated strong to severe thunderstorms are possible from eastern Texas into southeast Oklahoma, southern Arkansas, northern Louisiana, and western Mississippi late Wednesday afternoon and evening. ...Southeast OK/ArkLaTex into western MS... An upper shortwave trough will quickly progress east from the southern Rockies/northern Mexico into the southern Plains by afternoon, and the South by Thursday morning. The stronger jet streak will remain over central/southeast TX before shifting to the central Gulf coast overnight. Nevertheless, the left exit region of the broader 50-60 kt southwesterly midlevel jet will overspread the ArkLaTex region during the afternoon/evening. Meanwhile, a modest surface low will move into central OK by late afternoon with a dryline extending south near/just east of the I-35 corridor. Boundary layer moisture will remain modest, with mainly 50s F dewpoints expected across eastern OK into AR. Near-60 F dewpoints may approach the Red River, but overall moisture will remain shallow and the boundary layer should become well-mixed. Nevertheless, supercell wind profiles will be present and cooling aloft will support steep midlevel lapse rates. This will foster MLCAPE values to around 1500 J/kg. Some uncertainty remain regarding storm coverage. Notably, the NAM maintains quite strong capping, while the HRRR, RAP, GFS and ECMWF guidance are more subdued (or fully erode any capping). A slight risk has been added near the dryline, close to the surface triple point where deeper, sustained convection appears most likely. Given aforementioned parameter space, large hail and strong gusts are the most probable storm hazards from late afternoon into Wednesday night. ..Leitman.. 03/11/2025 Read more

SPC 0600Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1215 AM CDT Tue Mar 11 2025 Valid 121200Z - 131200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA...NORTHEAST TEXAS...WESTERN ARKANSAS...AND EXTREME NORTHWEST LOUISIANA... ...SUMMARY... Isolated strong to severe thunderstorms are possible from eastern Texas into southeast Oklahoma, southern Arkansas, northern Louisiana, and western Mississippi late Wednesday afternoon and evening. ...Southeast OK/ArkLaTex into western MS... An upper shortwave trough will quickly progress east from the southern Rockies/northern Mexico into the southern Plains by afternoon, and the South by Thursday morning. The stronger jet streak will remain over central/southeast TX before shifting to the central Gulf coast overnight. Nevertheless, the left exit region of the broader 50-60 kt southwesterly midlevel jet will overspread the ArkLaTex region during the afternoon/evening. Meanwhile, a modest surface low will move into central OK by late afternoon with a dryline extending south near/just east of the I-35 corridor. Boundary layer moisture will remain modest, with mainly 50s F dewpoints expected across eastern OK into AR. Near-60 F dewpoints may approach the Red River, but overall moisture will remain shallow and the boundary layer should become well-mixed. Nevertheless, supercell wind profiles will be present and cooling aloft will support steep midlevel lapse rates. This will foster MLCAPE values to around 1500 J/kg. Some uncertainty remain regarding storm coverage. Notably, the NAM maintains quite strong capping, while the HRRR, RAP, GFS and ECMWF guidance are more subdued (or fully erode any capping). A slight risk has been added near the dryline, close to the surface triple point where deeper, sustained convection appears most likely. Given aforementioned parameter space, large hail and strong gusts are the most probable storm hazards from late afternoon into Wednesday night. ..Leitman.. 03/11/2025 Read more

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1230 AM CDT Tue Mar 11 2025 Valid 111200Z - 121200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Isolated thunderstorms are expected across far southern California and into Arizona today. Severe storms are not expected. ...Discussion... As an upper low just off the East Coast this morning progresses across the western Atlantic, quasi-zonal flow aloft is expected across a substantial portion of the country. An exception will be across the southwestern states, as a second low shifts inland over southern California and northern Baja, and gradually progresses into Arizona/northwestern Mexico. As this system advances, and mid-level lapse rates steepen, showers and occasional/embedded lightning will spread inland, affecting southern California through the day, and across the Colorado Valley into Arizona overnight. Weak buoyancy should preclude any appreciable severe risk. ..Goss/Squitieri.. 03/11/2025 Read more